2015 Strategic Thinking For Complex Problem Solving Arnaud Chevallier

Strategic
Thinking for
Problem Solving
An Overview
Strategy Club
2/12/2015
Arnaud Chevallier
Wednesday, February 25, 15
What skills and knowledge are employers

looking for in new hires?
What are you doing to acquire those?
Employers want more than just content

expertise
Content knowledge +
Ethic
Communication
Teamwork
Problem solving
Social responsibility
(Casner-Lotto & Barrington, 2006)
Employers prioritize critical

thinking, communication, and
Increasingly, employers indicate

a need for professionals who excel
in teamwork, communications,
problem identification and
solutions, and the ability to have
a broad view.
(Wendler et al., 2012)
complex problem-solving
skills over a job candidates
major field of study when hiring.

(AAU, 2013)
Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved

Work in a team structure

Make decisions and solve
problems
Plan, organize, and prioritize

work
Communicate
(NACE, 2014)
3 / 42
For our purposes, lets define a problem as the gap

between where you are and where you want to be

4 / 42
Taking this definition, we all spend our entire days

solving problems
Go to work
Solve work problems

Eat
Solve work problems
Go home
Solve personal
problems

5 / 42
Of all problem types, lets focus on complex, illdefined, non-immediate (CIDNI) ones
+ Non immediate (i.e. you
have > weeks to solve it)
What is the optimal
Diverse,
fuel quantity to put
dynamic, and/or
in the A380 going
Complex
interdependent
from Paris to NYC
variables
today?
Simple
Homogeneous,
static, and/or
independent
variables
Source: Pretz et al. 2003; Woods, 2000; Frensch & Funke, 1995

How should we
reverse global
warming?
How many standardsize ping pong balls

can fit in a
20x40x10cm box?
Goals, solution path,
obstacles are clear
No clear path to
solution
Well defined
Ill defined
6 / 42
To solve CIDNI problems, you need both depth and

breadth of knowledge; this talk is about the latter
Breadth of
knowledge across
disciplines makes
you a generalist
Breadth
D
e
p
t
h
Depth of knowledge
in a discipline makes
you a specialist
Ideal problem solver
(or problem solving
team) is T shaped
Strategic
Thinking
generalist
Traditional
programs +
research
specialist
Source: (Perkins & Salomon, 1989), (Gauch, 2003) [pp. 23] (Grasso & Burkins, 2010) [pp. 1
10]; (Kulkarni & Simon, 1988) [p. 140], (Sanbonmatsu, Posavac, Kardes, & Mantel, 1998),
(Sheppard, Macatangay, Colby, & Sullivan, 2009) [p. 175], (Katzenbach, 1993), (Savransky, 2002)
[p. 18], (M. U. Smith, 1991) [pp. 1015].

7 / 42
You can become a better problem solver through

a four-step approach
WHAT
1. Frame the
problem
WHY
2. Diagnose the
problem

HOW
DO
3. Find
solutions
4. Implement
solution
8 / 42
This starts with framing the problem you should

solve
WHAT
1. Frame the
problem
WHY
2. Diagnose the
problem

HOW
DO
3. Find
solutions
4. Implement
solution
9 / 42
Framing the problem requires identifying the key question

that encompasses all the other relevant questions
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
Key
question
?
?
?
?
?
See also (Davis, Keeling, Schreier, & Williams, 2007)

10 / 42
You must identify the right key question
Cartoon by Charles Addams

11 / 42
To illustrate, lets look at a real case

A friend calls you, speaking frantically: My dog
Harry is gone! I came home a few minutes ago
and Harry wasnt there.
I left my house at noon, and when I came
back, around 4pm, he was missing. Our house
has a backyard with a doggy door in between.
Thats really strange: he hasnt escaped in monthsever since we fixed the
gate, he cant.
Also, I fired the housekeeper this morning for poor performance. She blamed
Harry, saying he sheds too much, and she was upset. Im sure shes kidnapped
him.
He has no collar; how are we going to find him? Also the yard crew came
today to mow the lawn.
Anyway, youre the master problem solver. Help!
12 / 42
First, you need to identify your overall objective

HOW can we get
Harry back?
WHY is Harry
missing?
Identify
Identify HOW
WHY Harry
to get him
is missing
back
In scope
HOW do we
prevent this from
happening again?
Time
3
DO: Get
him back
Identify HOW
to prevent this
from happening
again
DO: prevent
this from
happening
again
Out of scope
13 / 42
Also, you need to think about the logistics of your

project
Time
People
Equipment
Money
Other
resources
Facilities
Processes
Etc.
14 / 42
Capture that information in a WHAT card (as in,

what you want to do in your project)
Project name: Find Harry the dog
Specific goals:
(what you are
going to do)
1. Understand why Harry is missing (why)

2. Identify best way to get him back (how)
3. Get him back (do)
Out of scope:
Prevent him from going missing again
(what you are
in the future (both the how and the
not going to do) implementation)
Sponsor(s):
John and his wife
Other key
stakeholders:
Time table:
Actions
N/A
1. Frame the problem (define the what)

2. Diagnose the problem (find the why)
Define the diagnostic key question and identify possible causes
Collect the diagnostic evidence, analyze, & draw conclusions
3. Identify solutions (find the how)
Define the solution key question and identify possible solutions
Collect evidence, analyze, and decide which solution(s) to implement
4. Implement (do)
Resources:
Money: Spend up to $150 for the why, $150 for the how, $300 for the do
People: Up to 3 people dedicated full time
Possible
problems:
Speaking with housekeeper can backfire

Mitigation
actions:
Needed Cumulative
time
time
2h
2h
4h
6h
6h
12h
6h
6h
48h
18h
24h
72h
Refrain from speaking with the

housekeeper until absolutely necessary
15 / 42
Now that youve identified what problem to solve,

you need to understand why you have it
WHAT
1. Frame the
problem
WHY
2. Diagnose the
problem

HOW
DO
3. Find
solutions
4. Implement
solution
16 / 42
Our diagnostic is driven by a question with a why root that

enables you to uncover the root causes of the problem
WHAT
1. Frame the
problem
WHY
2. Diagnose the
problem
HOW
DO
3. Find
solutions
4. Implement
solution
Why is Harry missing?

17 / 42
To get to the diagnosis question, you need an

introductory flow: a situation and complication
Situation:
My friend has a dog

Harryand lives in a
house. Sometimes, he
leaves Harry alone at
the house
Complication: Today, when my friend

came home after 4
hours, Harry was
missing
Parts of the
universe
Problems
Diagnostic
Why is Harry missing?
key question:

18 / 42
Capture this information in a diagnostic definition

cardi.e., a WHY card
Situation: My friend has a dogHarryand lives in a house. Sometimes, he leaves
Harry alone at the house
Complication: Today, when my friend came home after being absent for 4 hours, Harry was
missing
Diagnostic key Why is Harry, the dog, missing [from my friends house where he was left
question: unattended for 4 hours]?
Decision My friend and his wife
makers:
Other N/A
stakeholders:
Goals and Spend up to $150 on the diagnosis, design diagnostic analysis within 6
logistics: hours, conduct diagnostic analysis within 12 hours
Voluntarily left- Call the housekeeper to accuse her of kidnapping Harry without conducting
out answers: a preliminary analysis first
Consider irrational explanations such as alien abduction
Consider that friend is mistaken or lying when saying that Harry is not at
the House
19 / 42
Next, build a WHY issue map: a graphical breakdown of

your problem space; issue maps have four basic rules
Issue
maps...
1
2
... progress from the key

question to the conclusions
... have mutually exclusive and

collectively exhaustive (MECE)
branches
... are insightful

diagnostic maps answer a

why key question
... consistently
answer one
type of
question
solution maps answer a

how key question
20 / 42
To build a map, break your diagnosis question into

parts

21 / 42
Further map out the problem space by exploring

all possibilities

22 / 42
Force yourself to think about all possible

scenarios. That will require some effort

23 / 42
Now that youve structured your diagnosis,

formulate your set of diagnostic hypotheses

24 / 42
Next, prioritize your analysis, which may include

discarding hypotheses that seem too unlikely
Test first because it has
implications on next steps

Discard (for now)

because too unlikely
25 / 42
Then, look for evidencei.e., information that

youll use to test your hypotheses
Inspect the location:
Quiet residential neighborhood
Talk with friend:
Friend was away from noon to 4pm
Harry can go between house and yard
Harry hasnt escaped in months, since friend fixed the gate
Harry has no collar
The backyard gate was closed when friend came back
There are no holes in or under the fence
The backyard gate doesnt lock
Harry cant jump over the fence or gate
Friend fired housekeeper that morning because of poor
performance
Housekeeper was upset and blamed Harry for shedding
Harry escapes whenever possible, follows scents, and ends
up lost
Whenever the lawn crew is there, Harry barks loudly
enough for the crew to hear
Talk with neighbor:

Saw a police car in front
of the house at 2:20pm
Saw Harry out on the
street by himself at
~2:20pm
Talk with lawn crew

supervisor:
Crew came today
between 1 & 2pm
Crew knows Harry but
didnt see him today
26 / 42
You may re-organize your evidence to help you gain some

understanding, perhaps in a timeline or a map of the events
Street
Street
Sidewalk
Where neighbor saw
Harry by himself
Front yard
House door
Where the yard crew

park their truck
Drive way
House
Yard gate
Solid fence
Doggy door
Back yard
27 / 42
Use evidence, presuppositions and logic to test

your hypotheses
See (Austhink, 2006), (Gauch, 2003) [pp. 124131], (Twardy, 2010)

28 / 42
Then decide if the evidence contrary to each

hypothesis is sufficient to discard it

29 / 42
This will lead

you to identify
a subset of
root cause(s) to
focus on

30 / 42
Now that you know why you have your problem,

you can search, evaluate, and select solutions
WHAT
1. Frame the
problem
WHY
2. Diagnose the
problem

HOW
DO
3. Find
solutions
4. Implement
solution
31 / 42
Start by building a solution definition card

i.e., a HOW card
Situation:
My friend has a dogHarrywho went missing a few hours ago

Complication: While we initially suspected foul play, we now believe that no-one is
preventing us from recovering Harry
Solution key
question: How can we get Harry (the dog) back, knowing that no-one is
preventing us from recovering him?
Decision
makers: My friend and his wife
Other My friends neighbors and other people that we enlist to partake in the
stakeholders: search
Goals and Identify all solutions within 4 hours; Pick and implement subset within 12 hours;
logistics: Bring Harry back within 24 hours
Voluntarily leftout answers: Ask neighbors to invest significant time in locating Harry
32 / 42
To identify possible solutions, develop a

HOW map

33 / 42
Keep drilling
until your map
is sufficiently
explicit

34 / 42
Next, formulate
hypotheses...

35 / 42
identify attributes to evaluate the alternatives

and decide which to pursue
Individual
Quickness
likelihood of Timeliness
of success
success
Weight
H1: Searching the
neighborhood
H3: Informing
people likely to
know about
missing animals
H4: Posting
virtual
announcements
H5: Checking
announcements
H6: Enabling
Harry to come
back on his own
Weighted
Cost
Ranking
score
30%
40%
20%
5%
5%
50
100
100
100
90
84.5
100
100
80
100
100
96
15
20
20
16.5
50
100
7.5
30
90
100
100
100
75

Lack of
setup
time
36 / 42
All thats left is to implement your solution
WHAT
1. Frame the
problem
WHY
2. Diagnose the
problem

HOW
DO
3. Find
solutions
4. Implement
solution
37 / 42
Implementing a solution requires, at the very least,

to sell it...
Here is what we need to

do, and here is why...
We believe our best chance to recover Harry is to focus on
putting announcements in the street and alerting his vet and
pet associations that he is missing, here is why:
Support point #1
Support point #2
Support point #3
...

38 / 42
... and sometimes to actually manage the

implementation yourself
... so, please do X and Ill do Y
Task
Design and print
announcements
Owner
Me
Due Date
5pm
Post announcements
All
8pm
Alert vet
John
4:30pm
Look up pet associations
Jane
6pm
Alert pet associations
John
8pm

39 / 42
Also integral to implementation is evaluating your

solution and course-correcting as you progress
As sailors, follow
a general strategy
but adapt it to
integrate new
developments
40 / 42
And when youre done, celebrate!

41 / 42
In summary, proactively improve your strategic

thinking
Employers want you to be a good specialist
and a generalist
So develop your strategic thinking skills
Take ENGI/LEAD 545
Read powerful-problem-solving.com
Read timvangelder.com
Email meacd@rice.edu

Breadth
D
e
p
t
h
42 / 42
References
American Association of Universities (2013). It
take more than a major: Employer priorities for
college learning and student success. [p. 4]
Austhink (2006, December 7, 2006). "Argument
Mapping Tutorials." Retrieved January 14, 2014,
from http://austhink.com/reason/tutorials/.
Casner-Lotto, J. and L. Barrington (2006). Are
They Really Ready to Work? Employers'
Perspectives on the Basic Knowledge and
Applied Skills of New Entrants to the 21st Century
US Workforce, ERIC. [p. 8]
Davis, I., et al. (2007). "The McKinsey approach
to problem solving." McKinsey Staff Paper(66):
27.
Frensch, P. A. and J. Funke, Eds. (1995).
Complex problem solving: The European
perspective. New York, Psychology Press.
Perkins, D. N. and G. Salomon (1989). "Are
cognitive skills context-bound?" Educational
researcher 18(1): 16-25.
Gauch, H. G. (2003). Scientific method in
practice, Cambridge University Press. [pp 23],
[pp. 124131]
Grasso, D. and M. B. Burkins (2010). Beyond
technology: The holistic advantage. Holistic
Engineering Education. D. Grasso and M. B.
Burkins, Springer: 1-10.!
Katzenbach, J. R. (1993). The wisdom of teams:
Creating the high-performance organization,
Harvard Business Press.

Kulkarni, D. and H. A. Simon (1988). "The

processes of scientific discovery: The strategy of
experimentation." Cognitive science 12(2):
139-175.
National Association of Colleges and Employers
(2014). The job outlook for the class of 2014. [p.
4]
Wendler, C., et al. (2012). "Pathways through

Graduate School and into Careers." Educational
Testing Service. [p. 33]
Woods, D. R. (2000). "An EvidenceBased
Strategy for Problem Solving." Journal of
Engineering Education 89(4): 443-459.
Pretz, J. E., et al. (2003). Recognizing, defining,

and representing problems. The Psychology of
Problem Solving. J. E. Davidson and R. J.
Sternberg. New York, Cambridge University
Press: 3-30.
Sanbonmatsu, D. M., et al. (1998). "Selective
hypothesis testing." Psychonomic Bulletin &
Review 5(2): 197-220.
Sheppard, S., et al. (2009). Educating engineers:
Designing for the future of the field, Jossey-Bass
San Francisco, CA.
Savransky, S. D. (2002). Engineering of creativity:
Introduction to TRIZ methodology of inventive
problem solving, CRC Press
Smith, M. U. (1991). A view from biology. Toward
a unified theory of problem solving: Views from
the content domains. M. U. Smith. New York,
Routledge: 1-21.
Twardy, C. (2010). "Argument maps improve
critical thinking." Teaching Philosophy 27(2):
95-116.
43 / 42

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Strategic

What skills and knowledge are employers

What are you doing to acquire those?

Wednesday, February 25, 15

Employers want more than just content

Employers prioritize critical

Increasingly, employers indicate

major field of study when hiring.

Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved

Work in a team structure

Plan, organize, and prioritize

For our purposes, lets define a problem as the gap

Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved

Taking this definition, we all spend our entire days

Solve work problems

Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved

Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved

How many standardsize ping pong balls

To solve CIDNI problems, you need both depth and

Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved

You can become a better problem solver through

Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved

This starts with framing the problem you should

Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved

Framing the problem requires identifying the key question

See also (Davis, Keeling, Schreier, & Williams, 2007)

Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved

You must identify the right key question

Cartoon by Charles Addams

To illustrate, lets look at a real case

First, you need to identify your overall objective

Also, you need to think about the logistics of your

Capture that information in a WHAT card (as in,

1. Understand why Harry is missing (why)

John and his wife

1. Frame the problem (define the what)

Speaking with housekeeper can backfire

Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved

Refrain from speaking with the

Now that youve identified what problem to solve,

Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved

Our diagnostic is driven by a question with a why root that

Why is Harry missing?

To get to the diagnosis question, you need an

My friend has a dog

Complication: Today, when my friend

Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved

Capture this information in a diagnostic definition

Next, build a WHY issue map: a graphical breakdown of

... progress from the key

... have mutually exclusive and

... are insightful

Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved

diagnostic maps answer a

solution maps answer a

To build a map, break your diagnosis question into

Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved

Further map out the problem space by exploring

Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved

Force yourself to think about all possible

Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved

Now that youve structured your diagnosis,

Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved