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Grey theory is a truly multidisciplinary and generic theory that deals with systems which are characterized by poor information and /or for which information is lacking. In this paper, a modified grey model, combined with a simple statistical method to determine the model coefficient and a sectional model, by using another variable to modify the original grey prediction model for long-term forecasting, is proposed

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301-308 (2003)

301

PREDICTION

Che-Chiang Hsu * and Chia-Yon Chen

ABSTRACT

Grey theory is a truly multidisciplinary and generic theory that deals with systems which are characterized by poor information and /or for which information is

lacking. In this paper, a modified grey model, combined with a simple statistical

method to determine the model coefficient and a sectional model, by using another

variable to modify the original grey prediction model for long-term forecasting, is

proposed. This new method not only can improve the prediction accuracy of the original grey model, but also can make it suitable for long-term forecasting. Finally, we

use power demand forecasting in Taiwan for our case study to test the efficiency and

accuracy of the proposed method.

Key Words: grey theory, modified GM(1,1) model, long-term forecasting.

I. INTRODUCTION

Grey theory, developed originally by Deng

(1982), is a truly multidisciplinary and generic theory

that deals with systems which are characterized by

poor information and /or for which information is

lacking. The fields covered by grey theory include

systems analysis, data processing, modeling, prediction, decision-making and control. Grey theory

mainly works on a system analysis with poor, incomplete or uncertain messages. Grey forecasting models have been extensively used in many applications

(e.g., Sun, 1991; Morita et al., 1996; Huang and

Wang, 1997; Hsu and Wen, 1998; Hsu and Chen,

1999; Yue and Wang, 2000; Hao and Wang, 2000;

Xing, 2001). In contrast to statistical methods, the

potency of the original series in the time series grey

model, called GM(1,1), has been proven to be at least

four (Deng, 1986). In addition, assumptions regarding statistical distribution of data are not necessary

when applying grey theory. The accumulated

*Corresponding author. (Tel: 886-6-6523111 ext. 263; Fax: 8866-6523614; Email: stronghs@mail.njtc.edu.tw)

C. C. Hsu is with the Department of Resources Engineering,

National Cheng-Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan 701, R.O.C. and

is currently with the faculty of the Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Nan-Jeon College of Technology,

Tainan, Taiwan 737, R.O.C.

C. Y. Chen is with the Department of Resources Engineering,

National Cheng-Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan 701, R.O.C.

generation operation (AGO) is one of the most important characteristics of grey theory, and its main

purpose is to reduce the randomness of data. In fact,

functions derived from AGO formulations of original series are always well fitted to exponential functions.

But, using the original GM(1,1) model may face

problems in that this model cannot reflect real system growth trends among different periods and it is

not suitable for long-term forecasting. In this paper,

a modified grey model combined with a simple statistical method to determine the model coefficient and

a sectional model by using another variable to modify

the original grey prediction model for long-term forecasting is proposed. This new method not only can

improve the prediction accuracy of the original grey

model, but also can solve the long-term forecasting

problem for which the original grey model is not

suitable. Finally, we use power demand forecasting

in Taiwan for our case study to examine the model

reliability and accuracy.

II. ORIGINAL GM(1,1) FORECASTING

MODEL

The GM(1,1) is one of the most frequently used

grey forecasting models. This model is a time-series

forecasting model encompassing a group of differential equations adapted for parameter variance from a

first-order differential equation. Its difference

302

than being general difference equations. Although it

is not necessary to employ all the data from the original series to construct GM (1,1), the minimum number of data must be four. In addition, the data must

be taken at equal intervals and in consecutive order

without bypassing any data (Deng, 1986). The GM

(1,1) model constructing process is described below:

Denote the original data sequence by

x (0)=(x (0)(1), x (0)(2), x (0)(3), ..., x (0)(n))

(1)

The accumulated generating operation (AGO)

formation of x (0) defined as:

x (1)=(x (1)(1), x (1)(2), x (1)(3), ... , x (1)(n))

(2)

where

x (1)(1)=x (0)(1), and x (1)(k) =

x (0)(m)

m=1

k=2, 3, ... , n

(3)

GM(1,1)model which corresponds to the following

first-order difference equation :

dx (1)(k)/dk+ax (1)(k)=b

(4)

using the least square method. That is

a

a

(5)

a

k=2, 3, ...

(10)

where x (0) (1), x (0) (2), ..., x (0) (n) are called the

GM(1,1) fitted sequence, while x (0)(n+1), x (0)(n+2),

..., are called the GM(1,1) forecast values.

III. MODIFIED MODELING METHOD OF GM

(1,1) FORECASTING MODEL

Obviously, using the GM(1,1) model may face

some problems. First of all, a real system will grow

at different speeds during the whole period, but it is

difficult for the original GM(1,1) model to reflect real

growth trends among the different periods, since it is

just suitable for one exponential growth rule.

Secondly, it has been proven that this model is not

suitable for long-term forecasting, since the absolute

value of model coefficient a is too large it may lead

to a larger prediction error (Liu and Deng, 2000). In

order to solve these problems, a new modified modeling method of the GM(1,1) forecasting model is

proposed as follows.

Usually, the coefficients a and b in Eq. (5) are

determined by using the least square method as stated

in Eqs. (5)-(8). Obviously, through this method, the

estimated value of coefficients a and b is not necessarily the optimum value. Thus, a new method based

on statistical theory to determine the estimated value

of coefficients a and b is described as follows.

According to the given data sequence as Eq.(1),

we can obtain a new data sequence as:

where

A(k)=(a(1), a(2), a(3), ..., a(n1)),

[a, b] T = (B T B) 1 B T X n

(6)

(k=1, 2, ... , n1)

(11)

and

where

0.5(x (1)(1)

B=

x (1)(2))

+

,

1

1

E(A) and variance S(A) of series A(k) are defined as:

n1

(8)

fitted and predicted series,

, x (0)(n),

(12)

(7)

(9)

Applying the inverse accumulated generating

operation (IAGO), we then have

E(A) =

1

a(k)

n 1 k

=1

S 2(A) =

(13)

n1

1

[a(k) E(A)] 2

n 1 k

=1

(14)

For the general prediction problem, some unusual data may lead to a large predicted error. In

order more reasonably to determine the optimum

value of a, the influence of these unusual data must

be removed. Analytical experience indicates that if

303

C. C. Hsu and C. Y. Chen: A Modified Grey Forecasting Model for Long-Term Prediction

and the mean is larger than two times the variance of

data, then these data are recognized as unusual data

(Liang et al., 2001). The remaining data, from which

the unusual data have been excluded is denoted as:

data sequence into m sections as shown in Eq. (21).

, x (0)(p 1))

, x (0)(q 1))

*

(k=1, 2, ... , m)

(15)

where mn1

Then the optimum estimated value a of the coefficient a could be calculated by:

1

a=m

(16)

the coefficient b can be further determined as follows.

We can rewrite Eq. (4) into general regression

form as

X n=aZ+b

(17)

(21)

By using the same method mentioned above, the

GM(1,1) model of each sections can be established

as below.

a *(k)

k=1

, x (0)(n))

x1(0)(k 1) = (x (0)(1)

b1

a

a (k 1)

) (1 e 1) e 1 1

,

a1

k 1=2, 3, ..., p1

x2(0)(k 2) = (x (0)(p)

b2

a

a (k 1)

) (1 e 2) e 2 2

,

a2

where

Z=

0.5(x (1)(2) + x (1)(3))

xm(0)(k m) = (x (0)(s)

(18)

bm

a

a (k 1)

) (1 e m) e m m ,

am

(22)

Then we calculate the expectated value of coefficient b,

E(b)=E(X n)E(aZ)

(19)

=X nZ

(20)

where

X

Z

is the mean of series X n.

is the mean of series Z.

estimate the coefficients a and b of GM(1,1) model

more correctly and efficiently.

In fact, through Eq. (12) we can find that e a(k)

is the series growth rate. By taking the Napierian

logarithm of the original data sequence then the different exponential development stages will be

identified. Once the turning point of the series growth

trend appears, we can divide the original data sequence into several sections. According to the

coefficients of GM(1,1) model more efficiently but

can also reflect the growth trend of the series during

different periods.

However, this modified method is still not suitable for long-term forecasting. To expand this model

for long-term forecasting, we introduce a new idea

by adding another variable to modify the method

mentioned above. The GM(1,1) model coefficient a

can be estimated by the original series growth rate.

To obtain the approximate future growth trend of the

original series, we could choose an important variable with a close relation to the original series. If we

have the future growth rate information about this new

variable, we can use such data to estimate the future

original series growth rate. Through this method the

future GM(1,1) model coefficient a can be identified

and applied for long-term forecasting.

From the above description, we can infer that

the proposed modified GM(1,1) forecasting model has

the following properties:

(1) It not only can keep the advantage of easy operation of the original GM(1,1) model, but, through

the new method based on simple statistical theory,

can determine model coefficients more efficiently.

(2) It solves the problem of the original GM(1,1)

304

Year

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Power Demand

(10 3 Wh)

37447713

38155718

42318625

45826958

47919102

53812862

59174751

65227727

69251809

74344947

80977405

85290354

92084684

98561004

105368193

111139816

118299046

128129801

131725892

142412887

16

14

GDP

(million NT$)

12

2542505

2632796

2855186

3157823

3314214

3699889

4171439

4498496

4868833

5131506

5519140

5932383

6348468

6799720

7236536

7678126

8190783

8565134

9050887

9528774

different growth trends during different stages.

(3) By adding another variable to modify the future

model coefficient, it can be more suitable for longterm forecasting.

Next, we will proceed to power demand forecasting in Taiwan for our case study to examine the

reliability and accuracy of the modified GM(1,1)

model. Furthermore, we also use the new modified

method for long-term power demand forecasting in

Taiwan from 2001 to 2010.

IV. SIMULATION RESULTS

To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed

method, we use power demand forecasting in Taiwan

as an illustrating example. First, we choose the gross

domestic product (GDP) as another important

variable, which is highly related to the power demand

growth. From Table 1, we can obtain the correlation

coefficient between GDP and power demand of Taiwan from 1981 to 2000, which is high, up to 0.9993.

The growth trends of power demand and GDP are

also shown in Fig. 1. Thus we can use the future

economic growth rate information to modify the future modified GM(1,1) model coefficients and apply

them to long-term power demand forecasting.

In this paper, we use historical annual power

demand records for Taiwan from 1981 to 2000 as our

Power Demand (1010 Wh)

10

6

4

2

0

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

Fig. 1 The GDP and Power Demand of Taiwan from 1981 to 2000

to 1998 are used for model fitting and 1999 to 2000

are reserved for ex post testing. In order to make the

sectional model simulation results more meaningful,

we divide these 20 observations in two ways. One is

taking equal order of data sequence sectional models

(EOSM), according to the economic growth rate of

Taiwan, we divide these 20 observations into four

equal development periods, where 1981-1985 is the

first period and 1986-1990, 1991-1995 and 1996-2000

are the second period, third period and fourth period,

respectively. The other is taking a non-equal order

of data sequences sectional model (NEOSM), according to the rule mentioned before by taking the Napierian logarithm of the original data sequence; to find

the different exponential development stages, we divide these observations into four non-equal development periods, where 1981-1984 is the first period and

1985-1989, 1990-1994 and 1995-2000 are the second

period, third period and fourth period, respectively.

Then we can further set up the sectional GM(1,1)

model for each divided period as stated in Eq. (22).

Previous research has developed some enhanced

GM(1,1) models to further improve the original model

predictive accuracy, such as GM(1,1) residual modification model, Markov Chain Residual Modification

GM(1,1) (MCRM GM(1,1)) and the Discrete Difference Equation Prediction Model(DDEPM). Details

of these improved models can be found in Deng

(1982), Hsu and Wen(1998), Chen and Lee (2002),

respectively. For the purpose of comparison, we use

the same number of observations to construct the

MCRM GM(1,1) and formulate the traditional time

series ARIMA (p,d,q) model, where p is the order of the

auto-regressive part, d is the order of the differencing,

and q is the order of the moving-average process (Box

et al., 1994).

The results obtained by the original GM(1,1)

model, our EOSM and NEOSM GM(1,1) model,

MCRM GM(1,1) model and ARIMA model are presented in Table 2 and Fig. 2. The model percentage

305

C. C. Hsu and C. Y. Chen: A Modified Grey Forecasting Model for Long-Term Prediction

Unit:10 3 Wh

Year

Real Values

Original GM(1,1)

Model Value Error(%)

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

37447713

38155718

42318625

45826958

47919102

53812862

59174751

65227727

69251809

74344947

80977405

85290354

92084684

98561004

105368193

111139816

118299046

128129801

131725892

142412887

37447713

41062515

44128430

47423261

50964099

54769313

58858641

63253296

67976077

73051483

78505841

84367447

90666708

97436300

104711340

112529569

120931542

129960845

139664318

150092296

0.00

7.62

4.28

3.48

6.35

1.78

-0.53

-3.03

-1.84

-1.74

-3.05

-1.08

-1.54

-1.14

-0.62

1.25

2.23

1.43

6.03

5.39

MAPE 1982-1998

MAPE 1999-2000

EOSM GM(1,1)

Model Value Error(%)

NEOSM GM(1,1)

Model Value Error(%)

37447713

39961651

42644355

45507154

48562138

52297572

57076113

62291279

67982966

74194714

79635852

85303296

91374074

97876891

104842494

111329636

117628362

124283452

131315069

138744515

37447713

40004685

42843144

45825726

48846657

54218944

58974744

64147698

69774396

74316615

79751842

85584579

91843901

98561004

104682255

111183674

118088872

125422925

133212469

141485792

2.53

5.71

0.00

4.73

0.77

-0.70

1.34

-2.82

-3.55

-4.50

-1.83

-0.20

-1.66

0.02

-0.77

-0.69

-0.50

0.17

-0.57

-3.00

-0.31

-2.58

1.64

1.44

0.00

4.85

1.24

0.00

1.94

0.75

-0.34

-1.66

0.75

-0.04

-1.51

0.34

-0.26

0.00

-0.65

0.04

-0.18

-2.11

1.13

-0.65

0.98

0.89

Year

Real Values

MCRM GM(1,1)

Model Value

Error(%)

ARIMA

Model Value

Error(%)

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

37447713

38155718

42318625

45826958

47919102

53812862

59174751

65227727

69251809

74344947

80977405

85290354

92084684

98561004

105368193

111139816

118299046

128129801

131725892

142412887

37447713

39465553

42538599

45840529

49388434

53200683

60420266

64807950

69523789

74592284

80039762

85894519

92186961

98949765

106218047

111029589

119438260

128474231

138184341

148618928

37447713

38761907

39488842

43760929

47358649

49503037

55540047

61027642

67217759

71330442

76532991

83303679

87704112

94632681

101233142

108167077

114043347

121329004

131327655

134983604

MAPE 1982-1998

MAPE 1999-2000

n

k=1

0.00

3.43

0.52

0.03

3.07

-1.14

2.10

-0.64

0.39

0.33

-1.16

0.71

0.11

0.39

0.81

-0.10

0.96

0.27

4.90

4.36

0.95

4.63

0.00

1.59

-6.69

-4.51

-1.17

-8.01

-6.14

-6.44

-2.94

-4.05

-5.49

-2.33

-4.76

-3.99

-3.92

-2.67

-3.60

-5.31

-0.30

-5.22

4.33

2.76

306

170000000

150000000

103 Wh

130000000

110000000

Real Values

Original GM (1,1)

EOSM GM (1,1)

NEOSM GM (1,1)

MCRM GM (1,1)

ARIMA

Model Fitting

90000000

Posterior forecasting

70000000

50000000

30000000

1981 1983

1985 1987 1989

1991

1993 1995

1997

1999

1982

1984

1986

1988 1990

1992 1994

1996

1998

2000

Year

Fig. 2 Real Values and model values for power demand of Taiwan from 1981 to 2000

8.00

6.00

4.00

Original GM (1,1)

EOSM GM(1,1)

NEOSM GM(1,1)

MCRM GM(1,1)

ARIMA

2.00

0.00

-2.00

-4.00

-6.00

-8.00

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Year

Fig. 3 Model percentage error distribution from 1982 to 2000

2, the model fitting results indicate that our EOSM

and NEOSM GM(1,1) model, MCRM GM(1,1) model

seem to have lower predicted error than the original

GM(1,1) model and ARIMA model from 1981 to

1999. The MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error)

of EOSM GM(1,1), NEOSM GM(1,1) and MCRM

GM(1,1) model from 1981 to 1998 are 1.64% , 0.98%

and 0.95%, respectively. The ex post forecast results

from 1999 to 2000 also show that our modified EOSM

and NEOSM GM(1,1) models still yield more accurate results than other models. But the MCRM GM

(1,1) model has poor ex post forecasting result during the same period. The MAPE of EOSM GM(1,1),

NEOSM GM(1,1) and MCRM GM(1,1) model from

1999 to 2000 are 1.44%, 0.89% and 4.63%, respectively. According to the model forecast results shown

above, our modified sectional GM(1,1) model,

whether in equal order or in non- equal order of data

sequences, can yield more accurate forecast results.

In order to apply this modified model for longterm forecasting, we use the estimated value of future economic growth rate information to obtain the

approximate future growth trend of power demand

during the same periods. Through this method, the

future modified GM(1,1) model coefficient a can be

evaluated by using the estimated value of future economic growth rate. The advantages of this method

are not only to avoid the original GM(1,1) model

which not suitable for long-term forecasting due to

the unreliable coefficient a, but to set up a different

situation of future economic growth rate in the probable range to simulate different model coefficients,

a, to increase the model flexibility and suitability as

a model operator. TPC (Taiwan Power Company) is

a government entity and the sole utility in Taiwan.

TPC has set up a long-term power demand prediction

database for Taiwan. Referring to TPC data (Taiwan

Power Company, 2001), the assumed economic

growth rate of Taiwan in the next 10 years (2001~

307

C. C. Hsu and C. Y. Chen: A Modified Grey Forecasting Model for Long-Term Prediction

Year Interval

2001-2005

2006-2010

4.40

4.15

3.90

3.65

3.40

3.15

Unit: 10 3 Wh

Year

GM(1,1)

MCRM

GM(1,1)

ARIMA

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

161298874

173342188

186284710

200193580

215140950

231204360

248467137

267018832

286955682

308381108

159832085

171881948

184830990

198746351

213700183

229770026

247039208

265597279

285540476

306972221

145843855

149329039

152868624

156462783

160111675

163815449

167574240

171388169

175257347

179181869

148679054

155220932

162050653

169180882

176624841

181762772

189305927

197162123

205344351

213866141

147966990

153737702

159733473

165963078

172435638

176589603

183035123

189715905

196640536

203817915

147254925

152261593

157438487

162791395

168326303

171539715

176943216

182516927

188266211

194196596

8.03%

7.98%

2.32%

4.15%

3.65%

3.15%

(2000-2010)

Modified GM(1,1)

High Growth Middle Growth Low Growth

310000000

280000000

103 Wh

250000000

Original Model

MCRM GM(1,1)

ARIMA

High Case

Middle Case

Low Case

220000000

190000000

160000000

130000000

2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001

Year

Fig. 4 Model forecasting results for power demand of Taiwan from 2001 to 2010

Table 3, we can further simulate the possible growth

situation of power demand for three cases (high,

middle and low) during 2001~2005 and 2006~2010.

We also use the original GM(1,1) model, MCRM GM

(1,1) model and ARIMA model to predict the power

demand during the same periods. The future forecasting results obtained by these models are shown

in Table 4 and Fig. 4. The forecasting results obtained

by the modified GM(1,1) model indicate that the

power demand of Taiwan in 2010 will reach a maximum of 213,866 MWh and a minimum of 194,197

MWh. And power demand during 2000~2010 will

show an average annual growth rate between 3.15%~

4.15%. The future power demand forecasting results

of the ARIMA model are the lower than the modified

GM(1,1) model. As for the original GM(1,1) model

and the MCRM GM(1,1) model, the power demand

will keep growing exponentially and the average annual growth rate will reach 8.03% and 7.98% during

308

the same period. According to the economic development situation and power demand of Taiwan today,

the modified GM(1,1) model seems to yield more reasonable power demand predicted results during

2001~2010. Besides, the interval predicted results

of the modified GM(1,1) model may provide more

elasticity and useful information for the decision

maker in future long-term power system planning.

V. CONCLUSIONS

The original GM(1,1) model is a model with a

group of differential equations adapted for variance

of parameters and it is a powerful forecasting model

especially when the number of observations is not

large. This paper has proposed a modified GM(1,1)

model by using a technique that combines a sectional

GM(1,1) model and a modification method by using

the economic growth information to modify the model

coefficient for long-term forecasting. This technique

not only keeps the advantage of easy operation of the

original GM(1,1) model but solves the problems of

the original GM(1,1) model that cannot reflect the

real system with different growth situations during

different stages and is not suitable for long-term

forecasting. The modified GM(1,1) model was then

applied to forecast power demand in Taiwan. Our

research results show that the modified GM(1,1)

model has better forecasting results than the original

GM(1,1) model, MCRM GM(1,1) model and conventional statistical models such as ARIMA model do.

For long-term forecasting, this modified model has

more flexibility and suitability than the original GM

(1,1) model.

Finally, although the modified GM(1,1) model

in this paper can reflect a rapidly changing environment, it still has the problem of choosing a suitable

variable to provide the model operator the information for original GM(1,1) model modification. Guidelines to assist the model developer to find this variable are lacking. Forecasters may, however, use traditional statistical methods such as relation coefficients

to find a suitable variable, which has high relation to

the original series to improve forecasting accuracy.

REFERENCES

Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., and Reinsel, G. C.,

1994, Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Prentice Hall, New Jersey.

Chen, C. M., and Lee, H. M., 2002, An Efficient

Gradient Forecasting Search Method Utilizing

Discrete Difference Equation Prediction Model, Applied Intelligence, Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 4358.

Deng, J. L., 1982, Grey System Fundamental Method,

Wuhan, China, (in Chinese).

Deng, J. L., 1986, Grey Prediction and Decision,

Huazhong University of Science and Technology,

Wuhan, China. (in Chinese).

Hao, Y. H., and Wang, X. M., 2000, The Study of

Grey System Models of Niangziguan Spring,

Journal of systems Engineering, Vol. 16, No. 3,

pp. 39-44. (in Chinese).

Hsu, C. C., and Chen, C. Y., 1999, Application of

Grey Theory to Regional Electricity Demand

Forecasting, Energy Quarterly, Vol. 24, No. 4,

pp. 96-108. (in Chinese)

Hsu, C. I., and Wen, Y. H., 1998, Improved Grey

Prediction Models for the Trans-Pacific Air Passenger Market, Transportation Planning and

Technology, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 87-107.

Huang, Y. P., and Wang, S. F., 1997, The Identification of Fuzzy Grey Prediction System by Genetic Algorithm, International Journal of Systems Sciences, Vol. 28, No. 3, pp. 15-26.

Kiartzis, S. J., Bakirtzis, A. G., and Petridis, V., 1995,

Short-term Load Forecasting Using Neural Networks, Electric Power Systems Research, Vol.

33, No. 2, pp. 1-6.

Liang, M. T., Zhao, G. F., Chang, C. W., and Liang,

C. H., 2001, Evaluating the Carbonation Damage to Concrete Bridges Using a Grey Forecasting Model Combined with a Statistical Method

Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers, Vol.

24, No. 1, pp. 85-94.

Liu, S. F., and Deng, J. L., 2000, The Range Suitable for GM(1,1), System Engineering Theory

and Application, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 111-124. (in

Chinese).

Morita, H., Hubele, N. F., and Karady, G. G.,

1996, Interval Prediction of Annual Maximum

Demand Using Grey Dynamic Model, Electrical Power and Energy Systems, Vol. 18, No. 3,

pp. 409-413.

Sun, G., 1991, Prediction of Vegetable Yields by

Grey Model GM(1,1), Journal of Grey System,

Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 187-197.

Taiwan Power Company, 2001, Long-term Load

Forecasting, Taipower, Taipei (in Chinese).

Xing, M., 2001, Research on Combined Grey Neural Retwork Model of Seasonal Forecast, System Engineering Theory and Application, Vol. 1,

No. 1, pp. 31-35. (in Chinese).

Yue, C. L., and Wang, L., 2000, Grey-Markov Forecast of the Stock Price, System Engineering, Vol.

16, No. 3, pp. 54-59. (in Chinese).

Manuscript Received: Mar. 14, 2002

Revision Received: Oct. 18, 2002

and Accepted: Nov. 24, 2002

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