March 16, 2007

ACTION MEMO FOR CHAIRMAN, INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

ADVISORY BOARD

FROM: ISAB Executive Director, Dr. George Look

SUBJECT: Approval of February 5 ISAB Meeting Minutes

Recommendation:

That you certify that the attached minutes of the February 5, 2007,
International Security Advisory Board (ISAB) meeting are complete and
accurate by signing and dating the "approve" line below.

Background:

By law, the board chairman must certify the accuracy of minutes

taken during board meetings. This must be done within 90 days of the
meeting. The ISAB Executive Directorate took notes during the February 5
board meeting and transcribed them into the attached document. Once
certified, these minutes will be maintained by the ISAB Directorate at the
Department of State.
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INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ADIVISOR BOARD

SUMMARY OF MINUTES OF THE FULL BOARD MEETING OF
FEBRUARY 5, 2007 (U)

(U) A plenary meeting of the Secretary's International Security Advisory Board

was held in the Principal's Conference Room (7516), at the Department of State
(Harry S Truman Building) on February 5, 2007.

(U) This meeting was held in accordance with provisions of the Federal Advisory
Committee Act (P.L. 92-463), which sets forth the standards for the formation and
conduct of government advisory committees. Since the meeting was devoted to
discussion of matters recognized as not subject to public disclosure, the meeting
was conducted in a closed session.

ATTENDANCE (U)

(U) Board Members Present: Senator Fred Thompson (Chairman); Dr. Michael
Anastasio; Dr. Ashton B. Carter; Dr. William Graham; Mr. Mitchel Kugler;
VADM Robert Monroe (USN, Ret); Dr. Gordon Oehler; Dr. Keith Payne; Dr.
Robert Pfaltzgraff; Senator Charles Robb; Dr. C. Paul Robinson; Dr. Amy Sands;
Dr. James Schlesinger; Dr. William Schneider; Dr. William Van Cleave.
Board Members Absent: Dr. Kathleen Bailey; Ms. Alison B. Fortier; Dr. Ronald
Lehman; Mr. R. James Woolsey.
Quorum Present: Yes.

(U) Others Present: Dr. Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of State; Dr. Robert Joseph,
Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs; Mr.
John Rood, Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and
Nonproliferation; Ms. Paula DeSutter, Assistant Secretary for Verification,
Compliance and Implementation; Ambassador Stephen Mull, Acting Assistant
Secretary for Political-Military Affairs; Mr. Thomas Cynkin, Executive Assistant
to the Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security Affairs; Mr.
Tim Katsapis, Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for Arms Control and
International Security Affairs; Mr. Thomas Lehrman, Director of the Office of
Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism; Mr. Michael Sechrist, Staff of the Under
Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security; Ms. Jaisha Wray,
Staff of the Assistant Secretary for Verification, Compliance, and Implementation.

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(U) ISAB Executive Secretariat Staff Dr. George Look (Executive Director); Mr.
Brandon Buttrick; Major Christopher Byrom; Ms. Thelma Jenkins-Anthony; Dr.
Kerry Kartchner; Ms. M. Wendy Reid; Mr. Gonzalo Suarez; Mr. Matthew
Zartman.

(U) Presentations By:

Mr. Adam Scheinman, Assistant Deputy Administrator for Nonproliferation and
International Security, National Nuclear Security Administration
Mr. Andrew Makridis, Deputy Director, Weapons Intelligence, Nonproliferation,
and Arms Control Center, Central Intelligence Agency

SUMMARY OF THE MEETING (U)

(U) The meeting was held from 8:30AM to 5:00 PM, with a 45 minute lunch. The
agenda for the meeting is at Attachment 1.

(U) ISAB Chairman Senator Fred Thompson, opened the meeting by

introducing ISAB Executive Director Dr. George Look who made administrative
remarks.

(U) Chairman Thompson reviewed the agenda, announcing the main objective of
the meeting-the approval of Sen. Robb's Task Force Report on Building
International Coalitions to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism-and
introduced the first speaker, Mr. Adam Scheinman, who discussed peaceful nuclear
energy and the implications for nonproliferation.

Future of Peaceful Nuclear Energy

(U) Mr. Scheinman, Assistant Deputy Administrator for Nonproliferation and

International Security, National Nuclear Security Administration, informed the
Board that future energy demands are expected to increase 100 percent by 2030.
Current levels of coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy production will not be able
to supply future demand. As a result, the expansion of nuclear energy production
is already underway, with consequences for nuclear proliferation as there is greater
opportunity for misuse, sabotage, or diversion of nuclear materials. He discussed
several proposals from the IAEA, the U.S., Russia, and others, that have emerged
to deal with the issue of providing fuel assurances. In particular, the U.S.'s Global
Nuclear Energy Program (GNEP) aims to confine enrichment and reprocessing to a

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handful of states through reliable fuel services, described as "supply and take
back" (supply nuclear fuel and take back spent fuel).

Roundtable Discussion with Under Secretary Joseph

(U) Under Secretary Joseph began the roundtable discussion by acknowledging

that there were no perfect solutions to the problems of nuclear energy demands and
nuclear proliferation. He then spoke about programs to deal with these problems
and with the proliferation problems posed by Iran and North Korea. The ensuing
discussion with the Board covered topics including improving bilateral relations
with countries in the Middle East, the efficacy of sanctions, U.S. force posture,
economic incentives for nonproliferation, and the impact of the Iraq War.

Nuclear Proliferation Over the Next Decade

(U) The Board reconvened after a break and Sen. Thompson introduced the next
speaker, Mr. Andy Makridis, Deputy Director of the Weapons Intelligence,
Proliferation, and Arms Control Center at the Central Intelligence Agency who led
a classified discussion of issues affecting nuclear proliferation.

(U) Concluding this discussion, Sen. Thompson announced adjournment for lunch.
The Board reconvened at approximately 1245 and began the afternoon session.

Presentation of the Report of the Task Force on Building International Coalitions

to Combat WMD Terrorism

(U) Task Force Chairman Sen. Charles Robb acknowledged the collaborative
nature of the report and thanked members of the Task Force for their efforts. He
explained the purpose of the task force, described the structure of the report, and
introduced Dr. Keith Payne, who briefed the first part of the report, a
methodology for combating WMD terrorism.

(U) Following Dr. Payne's presentation, Sen. Robb discussed the major findings
and recommendations of the report, including public diplomacy, engaging a wider
array of partners, and the ideas for strengthening the Global Initiative to Combat
Nuclear Terrorism.

(U) Following discussion, all Board members unanimously approved the report.

Space Policy Task Force Status

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(U) Sen. Thompson introduced Dr. William Van Cleave, who updated the Board
on the status of his task force report, announcing that a draft of the report will be
circulated prior to the next meeting. Dr. Van Cleave also announced a meeting of
the Space Policy Task Force to be held the following week.

Future ISAB Studies

(U) Dr. Gordon Oehler explained that he had received a preliminary draft of the
Teens of Reference for the Task Force on Preventing the Rapid Expansion of
Nuclear States. The task force has a broad charter so it is imperative for the
members of the Task Force to define the problems of rapid expansion of nuclear
states. The focus of the Task Force should be on what hasn't been already done or
hasn't been done convincingly.

(U) Dr. Paul Robinson stated that his Task Force on Global Expansion of Civil
Nuclear Power will try to focus on nation-states that use nuclear power programs
as a cover for clandestine nuclear weapons programs. Among other things, this
study will analyze the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and try to identify
means of strengthening the IAEA safeguards regime. Board members identified
several issues regarding the problems of civil nuclear power, nuclear proliferation,
and the weaknesses of the NPT that should be addressed in the report.

Future Board Activities - How Should Board Work Be Conducted and

Disseminated?

(U) Sen. Thompson initiated a general discussion of Board activities and asked
members for their views on how the Board should conduct its business over the
coming year. Sen. Thompson asked for Board members views on holding open
public meetings. Members opined that, given the classified nature of the subjects
being addressed by the Board, such meetings would likely not be very beneficial,
as discussion would be severely restricted by the need to keep the discussions
general and unclassified. It was suggested that posting the unclassified versions of
Board's reports on the Department of State's ISAB web site and, perhaps, holding
open meetings to discuss the unclassified parts of the Board's conclusions and
recommendations might be a more appropriate way of publicizing and
disseminating the work of the Board.

(U) Sen. Thompson called for a break and asked the Board to reconvene at 1600
when Secretary Rice would join them.

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Discussion with the Secretary

(U) Secretary Rice arrived at 1615 and Sen. Thompson provided a brief
introduction, after which Secretary Rice noted that this was Under Secretary
Joseph's final ISAB meeting as Under Secretary.

(U) Sen. Robb and Dr. Payne provided the Secretary a summary brief of their Task
Force Report on Building International Coalitions to Combat Weapons of Mass
Destruction Terrorism. Sen. Thompson followed with a description of the work to
be undertaken by new Task Forces on Preventing the Rapid Expansion of Nuclear
States and on Global Expansion of Civil Nuclear Power.

(U) A classified discussion between Secretary Rice and members of the Board
ensued regarding various aspects of nuclear energy, proliferation, Iran's nuclear
program and Six-Party Talks on the North Korean nuclear program.

(U) The meeting adjourned at 5:00 PM.

Attachments (U):
1. (U) ISAB Meeting Agenda, February 5, 2007

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0830 Opening Remarks (Senator Thompson)

0845 Future of Peaceful Nuclear Energy (Adam Scheinman, Assistant

Deputy Administrator for Nonproliferation and International Security,
NNSA)

0945 Break

1000 Roundtable Discussion (Under Secretary Joseph)

1100 Nuclear Proliferation over the Next Decade (Andy Makridis, Deputy
Director of WINPAC/CIA)

1200 Lunch

1245 Administrative Comments / ISAB Members Web Site

1300 Task Force Reports (Senator Thompson)

1300 Approval of Report of Task Force on WMD Terrorism (Senator

Robb)

1430 Report of the Task Force on Space Policy (Dr. Van Cleave)

1445 Discussion of Future Work

1545 Break

1600 Discussion with Secretary Rice

1700 Wrap-up (Senator Thompson)