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Breldenlch.Clare@epamail.epa.gov
'":;. t ........ 01/20/200202:27:29 PM

ReGard Type: Record

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To: Phil Cooney/CEQ/EOP@EOP
ce:
Subject: . help

HI Phil,

If you're around today (Sunday) or tomorrow, can you please give me a

~all? (heed· to chat with you about some changes Indur wants to the
exec\Jtive summary of the national communication. (see attached· his
Inserts in red•. Baverly's comments on his Inserts in blue)I'm not sure
how to handls what he wants on adaptation.

Thanks, Clare .

P.S. Try me on my home phone(202)965 - 5237 or cell(202) 285 - 5150. I'm

trying to avbid.gOlng into the office this weekend.

/·0 - indur's comments,doc ,

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001450

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CEQ 008676
 Introduction and Overview

''The Eurth's well-being is ... an issue important to America- and it's an issue that should
be importmll to every nation and in every part ofthe world. My Administration is committed to a
leadership /'ole'on the issue ofclimate change. We recognize our responsibility and we will meet
it, at home, ill our hemisphere. and in the world. "

With this June 2001 pleQgestatement (paul called this a pledge and I think we shoUld leave it a s @
Phil cleared it), President Bush reiterated the seriousness of climate change and ordered a --. t.J
~abinet:level r:eview ofD.S. climate change p~licy. ~e requested wor~? ~oups to develop ~
li'l.novattve appro.aches that would: (1) be consIstent WIth the goal of stabl1lZIDg greenhouse gas \'\0 .
concentrations in the atmosphere; (2) be sufficiently flexible to allow for new findings; (3)
. support continUed economic growth and prosperity; (4) provide market-based incentives; (5)
incorporate technological advances; and (6) promote global participation.
. ~,n.k.r"~.......t J,k.
The Pr~~idertt's dec si.on to tak a de.eper look at climate chang~ ~olic~ arose fr~n: ~W
recogtJltlOn that th. dlalogue:~~R-HIT+~~,.tft,~a;to..s.lmi~~I-R~i&-ir.aaeifIOjlacked the
requisite participatory breadth for a global response to climate change. At this historic summit,
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted, with the ultimate
objective of providing a higher quality of life for future generations: Signatories pledged to:

"i\chif;VC ...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that

wo~h:fp'fevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a· .
level sh'ould be achieved within a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt
nalurat'fi to climate change. to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to
enable ~bonomic development to proceed in a sustainable manner."
'"
In Rio, al~biti~~s ~lans wer~ ~et ~motion to address clim~te c~ange. However, participation in
constructmg a9?ptive and mItIgative measures for addressmg climate change fell short ofthe
breadth necess'R"ry. to c.onfront a problem that President Bush recently said has "the potential to
impact ev~ 4~mer ofthe world." A global probl<:m demands a truly parti~ipatory g~ob~

-;:]re~s~po~n~s~e~.~i~~':~!m~=~~~:!5i~~~~~~~!~~'~~:~
s~: n;;t;;;;;,~ '..... en to those . s tha .

~ .~~ .
~ President Busl,i, has st same as above that the United States will act to address this
global problerii'in a s , sensible, and science-based manner, even though uncertainties may
remain regard!n~ the precise magnitude, timing, and regional patterns of climate change. But we
need.partners·ili,t.h~s.endeavor. All countries must,actively work toge~erto achieve the long- k
J ~ ....'f\.,
tenn goal ofstablhzmg greenhouse gas concentratIOns at a level that WIll prevent dangerous -fr,... two),'" J"""
interference with the climate system, while at the same time takin actions that would reduce/~:I:~~"j
. ., .i;rd enhance our abili to co e with climate chan e . im act' VI
t..e,..r.(e,........
For our part, tl~~ United States intends to continue to be a constructive and active Party to the
United Nations'Framework
,'"
Convention on Climate Change. We are leading global research
",

1
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• . • bl .1 s:o:w
CEQ 008677
 . I

efforts t6 enhance the understanding of the science of climate change, as called for under the
Framework Convention. We lead the world on climate science and in recent years have spent
$1.6 billionpll federal research annually. Since 1990, the United States has provided over $18
billion for climate system research -- more resources than any other country. In July 2001,
Ptesident Buslrannounced a new CliJnate Change Research Initiative to focus on key remaining
gaps in our understanding of anthropogenic climate change and its potential impacts.

As envisioned by the Framework Convention, we are helping to develop technologies to address

climate change. The President has pledged to reprioritize research budgets under the National
CliniateChangc Technology Initiative so that funds will be available to develop advanced
energy and sequestration technologies to measure and monitor greenhouse gas emissions
accurately.

We plan to increase bilateral support for climate observation systems and to finance even more
demonstration projects of advanced energy technologies in developing countries. President
Bush's Western Hemisphere Initiative -- created' to enhance climate change cooperation with
developing countries in the Americas and elsewhere -- will also strengthen implementation of the
Framework Convention commitments. In line with our commitments under the Convention, we
have provided over $1 billion in climate change-related assistance to developing countries over
the.last five years. All of this is just the beginning: we intend to strengthen our cooperation on
ciimate sclen8b"and a ologies und the world whenever and wherever possible.
. .," \
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We. " . o •. ~· continue to make (good) pr gress in limiting emissions of greenhouse gases
•• •

in the United' . tes by becoming more ener efficient. In the last decade, we have seen
tremendous CC91)0' owth in t . States, and our level of emissions per unit of
economic output has declined significantly. We are taking substantive action to address climate
_ ..........."""'O"<..~throughvoluntary actions, and we will continue to do so. The U.S. is a world leader in'
addressing)a variety or national and global climate-sensitive problems which ate urgeD! teBa)' 1hi:
-and 9\.hie!t cciiJ1tl be exacerba~ed by climate chan~ MEIfe.ssi!ig stich proelems, WHich include~
melana. hunger and malnounshment, property losses and hves lost to extreme weather events,
habitat loss. and'other threats to biodiversity. wtltllff rednce vwlneFability and 0HfllHlce adaptability
t~male cbal!8e=-Tjtey eotdd also inclease the le.elat whieh atmospMrie-GooceDtrations of
g::eeitfl.oI:lge·g~eg might be deemed te Rille 90GOme 'saagewlJs' aHd sotliff reduce tfle cleptR,
5 and ~esls'associated with e'l@RmaJ miti I re dis e with includin the last
statement blc ifs so blood anthro acentric' as to revious Ii would dro malaria blc there's
so. much evidehce that it wonb't be affected b CC and 1 woul either malnourishment or
hunger).
','

Climate chan~~·.is a problem that requires 100 percent. ort -- ours and the rest of the world's.
T~i" 10ng-ICnl'··problem, decades in the making, cannot be solved overnight. A real solu~on must
be durable, scicnce-based, and economically sustainable. In particular, we seek an
environmentally sound approach that will not harm the U.S. economy, which remains a critically
important engil)e of global prosperity. We believe that economic development is key to
protecting the '~Iobal environment. In the real world, no one will forego meeting basic family
needs to protect the global commons. Environmental protection is neither achievable nor
sustainable witll?ut opportunities for continued development and greater prosperity. Our

CEQ 008678
 • , .' '.-11 '~s (}J ~'r;)~ ~
, ~ OQlf{Of~ \,oJl I

objttti ve is to ellsure a
efficient and sustainabl
:£"': solution lbat is enviro entaIly effective. economically
. ,mIg solves the urgent problems of today while enhancing our
ability to dea,l with future problem§,( I WoUld not add My Qfthig as it's GamBa ofpres ami Peula,
b"!t maybe yoU can ftgOIe out •....ay!6 ~ake it SOURS Better). Protecting the global environment is
too j'nportanMM'esponsibility for anything less.

In this U.S. Climate Action Report, the United States' third formal communication under the
Framework Convention on Climate Change, we fulfill the commitments required under Articles'
4 and 14 ofthe Convention. We meet the fonnal reporting requirements of the Climate
Convention by providing a description of our national circumstances, identifying existing and
plaimed policies and measures, indicating future trends in greenhouse gas emissions, outlining
expected impacts and adaptation measures, and providing information on financial resources,
teclmology transfer, research, and systematic observations. The remainder of this chapter
provides a brief description of the climate system science that sets the context for U.S. action, as
well as an overview of the U.S. program that is the focus ofthis report.

The SCience

(The following_~ection is adapted from Climate Change Science: An Ana(vsis ojSome Key
Questions, N!~)OOI.) ,

~reenhouse gft~~S are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing
global Olean s~J~face air temperature and subsurface ocean temperature to rise. While the changes
observed over;tll'e last several decade .... (no way-- this is direct
quote frorn NRC) due to human activi es, we emmot role out that some significant part is also a
reflection ofrla\\iI'al variabili1)!.Y fUe. likeJ.:j I'oACJS~ .
I ' r
Reducing the wide range of uncertainty inherent in current model predictions will require major
advances in un.4brstanding and modeling of the factors that determine atmospheric
concentrations'qf gT¥enhouse gases and aerosols, and the feedback processes that deteImine the
sensitivity of the climate system. Specifically, thiS will involve reducing uncertainty regarding:

• future use (~ffossil fuels and future emissions of methane,

• the fraction of the fossil fuel carbon that will provide radiative forcing vs. exchange with the
'or
oceans net exchange with the land biosphere,

• the feedb?,G~s in the climate system that detemline both the magnitude of the change and the
rate of ellcr~y uptake by the oceans,

• the details I;'lf. regional and local climate change,

• the natur~ and causes of the natural variability of climate and its interactions with forced
changes. and

CEQ 008679
 • the direct and indirect effects of the changing distributions of aerosols.

Knowledge of the climate system and of projections about the future climate is derived from
fundamental physics, chemistry; and observations. Data are then incorporated in global
c;ircula1ion llT!Jdels. However, model projections are limited by the paucity of data available to
evaluate the ability of coupled models to simulate important aspects of climate. To overcome
these limitatiot;ls, it is essential to ensure the existence of a long-tenn observing system and to
make more comprehensive regional measurements of greenhouse gases. These data are critical to
understanding local and regional source strengths.

While current analyses are unable to predict with confidence the timing, magnitude, or regional
distribution of climate change, the best scientific infonnation indicates that if greenhouse gas
concentrations continue to increase, climate is likely to change~@ likely 19 9;;lU. The U.S.
National Research Council has cautioned, however, that "becau there is considerable
uncertainty 1T!.. ~urrent understanding of how the climate system varies naturally and reacts to
emissions of grc;enhouse gases and aerosols, current estimates of the magnitude of future
wannings should be regarded as tentative and subject to future adjustments (either upward or
downward.)" Moreover, there is perhaps even greater uncertainty regarding the social,
environmental and economic conseguences of-impacts of those (climatic) changes. The U.S.
Global Chan' e Research Pro ram also , uncertaintie
~1@t'8 ta!!fj. », e-.r~> -+0 e,<~L. t-l-

National Clrc*mstances: Our Context

The perspecti~e. of the United States on climate change is infonned by our economic prosperity,
the rich diver~~ty of our climate conditions and natural resources, and the demographic trends of
over 2aO million residents. Because of our country's vast diversity of climatic zones, climate
change will. no(affect the U.S. unifonnly. This diversity will also enhance our economy's
resilience to future climate change.
1'-
Higher greenhouse gas emissions are a consequence of robust economic growth: more wealth
generally promb!es increased expenditures of energy. During the 1990s, investments in
to
technology led increases in energy efficiency, which partially offset the increases in
greenhouse ga~"~missions that would nonnally attend strong economic growth. In addition, much
of the eco~~mi~' growth in the United States has occurred in less energy-intensive sectoI"§ (e.g.,
computer tec;luwlogies). Consequently, in the 1990s the direct and proportionate correlation
between ecol1oil~ic growth and greenhouse gas emissions was altered.

Whi'~ :,1'>,:, United States is the world's largest consumer of energy, it is also the world's largest
produ'cer of energy, with vast reserves of coal, natural gas, and crude oil. Nevertheless, U.S.
energy use per unit of output, Le., the energy efficiency of our economy, compares relatively
well with the rest of the worl . The President's new National Energy Policy (NEPD
Group 2001) inGludes recomm dations that will reduce our reliance on fossil fuel production.
For example, tux incentives other initiatives will be used to promote the use of combined
heat and power:',and the use renewable resources. The ,President has also proposed expanding
4

·---'----------------------------~C~EQ~OO~8~680
 out nuclear energy capacity, but it is unclear whether Congress will sanction this endeavor. Even
if alternative fanns of energy generation are slow to develop, the introduction of wholesale and
retail competition in the etectric power industry has produced and will continue to produce
significant changes in the energy sector.

The naHon's response to climate change --'our vulnerability and our ability to adapt -- is also
influenced by U.S. governmental, economic, and social structures. as well as by the concerns of
U.S. citizens. The political and institutional systems participating in the development and
proteCtion of ellvironmental and natural resources in the United States are as diverse as the
resources themselves.

President Bush 'said last year that technology offers great promise to significantly and cost-
effectively reduce emissions in the longeterm. Our national circumstances -- our prosperity and
our diversity may shape our response to climate change, but our commitment to invest in
.0:.

irulovative te!=hnologies and research will ensure the success of our response.

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CEQ 008681
 Greenhouse Gas Inventory

This report presents U.S. anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission trends from 1990 through 1999
and fulfills the U.S. commitment for 2001 for an annual inventory report to the UNFCCC. To
ensure that the-U.S. emissions inventory is comparable to those of other UNFCCC signatory
couritriell, the·emission estimates were calculat.ed using methodologies consistent with those
recommended ·in the Revised 1996 IPee Guidelines for National Greenhouse G~ Inventories
(IPCCIUNEP/OECDIIEA 1997).

Naturally 09cumng greenhouse gases _. that is, gases that trap heat -- include water vapor,
carbon dioxide (C02), methane (C~), nitrous oxide (N20), and ozone (03). Several classes of
halogenated substances that contain fluorine, chlorine, or bromine are also greenhouse gases, but
they are, for. the most part, solely a product of industrial activities. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).
hYdrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and bromofluorocatbons (halon5) are stratospheric ozone-
depleting suhstances covered under the Montreal Protocol on Substances Thlll Deplele lhe
Ozone Layer and, hence, are not included in national greenhouse gas inventories. Some other
halogenated substances-hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur
hexafluoride (SF6)-dO not deplete stratospheric ozone but are potent greenhouse gases and are
accounted for in national greenhouse gas inventories.

Although CO~:tt4, and N20 occur naturally in the atmosphere, their atmospheric
concentratiqns.have been affected by human activities. Since pre-industrial time (Le., since about
1750), conoel'i~r,ations of these greenhouse gases have increased by 31, 151 and 17 percent,
respectivelY"(lp'CC 2001). This increase has altered the chemical composition of the Earth's
atmosphere an:d )ikely affected the global climate system.

In 1999, total 0.s. greenhouse gas emissions were about 12 percent above emissions in 1990. A
somewhat lower (0.9 percent) than average (1.2 percent) annual increase in emissions, especially
given the robust economic growth d~ng this period, was primarily atlributable to the following
factors: w.atm~~i·~han average summer and winter conditions, increased output from nuclear
power plains, 'reduced CH4 emissions from coal mines, and reduced HFC-23 by-product
emissions fr(lp<t,he chemical manufacture of HCFC-22.

As .the largest s~urce of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, C02 accounted for 82 percent of total
U.S. greenhouse,gas emissions in 1999. Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion was the
dominant contributor -- emissions from this source category grew by 13 percent between 1990
and 1999. ',- ~
r

Methane actoUlhed for 9 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in ] 999. Landfills, .
en~~'~" femwntqtion, and natural gas systems were the source of75 percent of total CH4
emissions. NittpUs oxide accounted for 6 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emis.sions in 1999,
and agricultural soil management represented 69 percent oftota! N20 emissions. The main
anthropogenic .~ptivities producing N20 in the United States were agricultural soil management,
fuel combustio~l in motor vehicles, and adipic and nitric acid production processes. HFCs, PFCs,
and SF6 accounted for 2 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 1999, and substitutes
for ozone-depleting substances comprised 42 percent of all·HFC, PFC, and SF6 emissions.
6 -I'

---------------------------------~!!!"""""
CEQ 008682 ......."
 Evidence is also emerging that black carbon aerosols (soot), which are formed by incomplete
combustion, may be a significant anthropogenic agent. These aerosols have significant negative
health impacts, particularly in developing countries. At least one million global deaths occur
annually as a,result ofparticulate air pollution.

Policies and IV(easures

U.S. climate'change programs reduced greenhouse gas emissions by an estimated 240 million
metric tons of C02 equivalent. This reduction helped to significantly lower (15% since 1990)
greenhouse:gases emitted per unit ofGDP, and thus ranks as a step forward in addressing climate
change.

However, th~ l.).S. effort was given a potentially greater boost in June 2001 when President Bush
announced major new initiatives to advance climate change science and technology. These
initiatives cttme about after government consultation with industry leaders, the scientific
community, and environmental advocacy groups indicated that more could and should be done to
address scientific uncertainties and encourage technological innovation.

At the. directicm of the President, the Secretaries of Commerce and Energy are developing
National Clim'~~~ Change Technology and Research Initiatives. These initiatives are designed to
achieve reai reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and to use synergies among groups -- e.g.,
pUblic-pri~at~.p.~rtnerships and interagency cooperation ~- to spearhead bold measures for
reducing the projected growth rate in global greenhouse gas emissions. The President's Nalioflal
Eflergy Policy (NEPD Group 2001), a comprehensive strategy aimed at advancing
environmentally. friendly energy technologies and energy efficiency, while enhancing U.S.
energy securHY/'wilI provide a practical complement grounded in market-based approaches to
the TechnologY"and Research Initiatives.
. ',/

"

Projections "

Chapter 5 desc?bes how forecasts of economic growth, energy prices, program funding, and
reguhitory developments were integrated to project greenhouse gas emissions levels in 2005, ]
20~0, 2015; ai1~·2020. When sequestration is accounted for, total United States greenhouse gas
emissions'are 'p~ojected to increase by 42% [CHECK- I think you said this yesterday, so I don't
know why indur'wants us to check] between 2000 and 2020. This increased growth in absolute
emissions will be accompanied by a decline in emissions per unit GDP.

There are wlce~ainties associated with the projected levels ofgreenhouse gas emissions. These
uncertpinties arS primarily associated with forecast methodology, climate abnonnalities, and the
economy. Only' implemented and funded policies and measures were used to generate the
forecasts. Thus'the effects of policies and measures adopted and not yet fully implemented. as
well as legislail\'e or regulatory actions not yetIn force, add another layer of uncertainty to the
projections... ,,'

au P 4 f
CEQ 008683
 Impacts and Adaptation

One qflhe·weakest links in our knowledge is the connection between global and regional
proj~.ctlon8"ofcHmate change. The National Research Council's response to the President's
req..c:st for a review of climate change policy specifically noted that fundamental scientific
qU6,Suons remain regarding the specifics of regional and local projections (NRC; 2001). ~
~Cllti31 itnpaets 6felima~s diaRas will Bet be ~l1y compJ:ebeJU1ed wml tMse details Me eleM.
~ 'tedictlhg the poLelitim impacts ofeltrnate ehattge is UR4iioQ compounded 631AatevCI but rTIke
~~~ ~tn1'bet1eri
~Pr b/Cfe~xt E¥T~ ~~i¥ ~ ~~i~~;;;
nal ny to 'accurai ypreic\l. ale
~~~~~
a :~:~~curren[
by a lack of
understanding 9fthe sensitivity of many environmental systems and resources, both managed
and urunanaged, to climate change. .

Chapter 6 provides an overview of potential negative and positive impacts and possible response
options, base.d primarily on the Climate Change Impacts on the United States: the Potential
Consequences o/Climate Variability and Change completed in 2001 (NAST 2001). This
assessment use~ historical records, model simulations,and sensitivity analyses to explore our
potential vulnetability to climate change and highlighted gaps in our knowledge.

Financial Reso'~rces and Transfer of Technology

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CEQ 008684
P4
 To address cljmate change effectively, developed and developing countries must meet
environmental,challenges together. The United States is committed to helping developing
countries and countries with economies in transition meet these challenges in ways that promote
economic well-being and protect natural resources. This comminnent has involved many players,
ranging fromgavemment to the private sector, who have contributed signiikant resources to
developing countries. As amplified in the UNFCCC guidelines, this assistance can take the fonn
of hard andlor soft technology transfer.

Projects targeting hard technology transfer, such· as equipment to control emissions and increase
energy efficiency, can be particularly effective in reducing emissions. And projects that target
the tra,llsfer of soft technologies, such as capacity building and institution strengthening through
the sharing of technical expertise, can help countries reduce their vulnerability to the impacts o(
climate change. But whether hard or soft, technology transfer programs are most effective when
they are appr:oached in a collaborative manner and are congruent with the development
objectives anet established legal framework of the target country.

To this end, 'the United States works closely with beneficiary countries to ensure a good fit
between the' resources provided by the do~or and the perceived needs of the developing country.
But even when the fit fulfills the goals of both countries, transparent democratic processes must
be in place for bilateral cooperation to succeed. Ingredients for successful bilateral cooperation
on cliinate change: a project valued by both donor and host country that protects natural
resourcesan<l 'prbmotes economic well-being.

.....
Research an~ Systematic Observation
.. .I

The UnitedSfutes leads the world in research on climate and other global environmental
changes. funding approximately half of the world's climate change research expenditures. We
intend to·conthiUe funding research in order to ensure vigorous, ongoing programs aimed at
narrowing the u¥tcertainties in our knowledge of climate change. These research programs will
be crucial for advancing the understanding of climate change. However, an effective strategy for
furthering our 'understanding will also require an observing system that can support long-term
climate mb~ilcirirlg and prediction. The United States has pledged to make significant
investments to accelerate research and to build the infrastructure required to provide the
necessary information to support decisions on critical climate issues.

The ptesidentis major new initiatives directed at addressing climate change are informed-by a
wealth of inpu(and are intended to result in significant improvements in climate modeling,
observation, an~ research efforts. The long-tenn visiou embraced by the new initiatives is to help
government; the private sector, and conununities make informed management decisions
regard!ng clim~!e change in light of persistent uncertainties.

Education, Trn.ining and Public Awareness

. ,~

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c'~"Q 608685