Dec 08, 2015

TriveniDec
Turbine
Ltd
08, 2015

Industrials - Electrical Equipment - Electrical Power Equipment

Triveni Turbine Ltd

Bloomberg Code: TRIV IN

BUY

India Research - Stock Broking

Key Risks

3M Avg. daily volume (mn)

0.1

52-wk High/Low (Rs.)

152 / 90

Beta (x)

1.2

Sensex/Nifty

25416 / 7744

O/S Shares(mn)

330.0

Face Value (Rs.)

1.0

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters

70.0

FIIs

19.9

DIIs

3.8

Others

6.3

Stock Performance (%)

Absolute

Relative to
Sensex

1M

3M

6M

12M

0.4

0.1

1.1

(3.4)

Nov-15

2.8

(2.8)

5.6

7.3

Source: Bloomberg

Relative Performance*
140
120
100

Triveni

Dec-15

80

Oct-15

We value TTL at 31.9x of FY17E EPS of Rs.4, which is a premium of 10% to mean
P/E multiple averaged since listing, justifying industry leading return ratios and cash
generation ability. We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation for a target
of Rs.128 representing an upside potential of 21.0% for a period of 9-12 months.

35043 / 525

Sep-15

Valuation and Outlook

Mkt Cap (Rs.mn/US$ mn)

Jul-15

We expect revenue,
EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 12.5% and 25.6% respectively during FY15-17E,
while the EBITDA and PAT margins are expected to reach 23.5% and 15.9%
respectively by FY17E. TTL is expected to generate free cash flow, while working
capital and net debt/equity to remain in negative territory, with RoE and RoCE
reaching to 35.8% and 36.8% respectively by FY17E.

Stock Information

Aug-15

Robust balance sheet ratios; undeniably attractive:

21

Jun-15

TTL (65% market share) and Siemens together controlling over 95% of market
share in the category upto 30MW power rating. This is largely contributed by
sectors such as Sugar, Paper, Chemicals, Petroleum products, Cement, Steel etc.,
which are currently witnessing low investment activity severely limiting domestic
opportunity, nevertheless, GETL order backlog is gaining momentum in the
30-100MW category. We expect turbines business to grow at a CAGR of 7% during
FY15-17E contributing to over 52% of revenues by FY17E. In the long term, GoIs
focus on renewable energy mission 2022 and to further prospects for TTL with
annual opportunity size averaging to 373MW for next decade and half.

Upside (%)

Apr-15

Domestic revival remains elusive in the near term; GETL and RE mission
to mitigate going forward: Indian steam turbine market is largely duopoly with

128

May-15

refurbishment, apart from services. We expect the segment to grow at a CAGR

of 18.6% during FY15-17E which could significantly improve the margins going
forward as the after-market margins are twice of the product exports.

106

Target Price

Mar-15

High margin aftermarket segment to grow at a CAGR of 18.6% during

FY15-17E: TTL after market offerings constitute of products, spare parts and

CMP (as on Dec 07,2015)

Jan-15

We expect TTL
to grow export revenues at a CAGR of 20.2% during FY15-17E to reach 48% of
revenues by FY17E with focus on Europe, LATAM, Middle-East and African markets
in the category upto 30MW power rated turbines.

Feb-15

Rising exports to counter restraint in domestic growth:

Recommendation (Rs.)

Dec-14

Favourable Business Mix to Sustain Superior Return Ratios

Sensex

Source: Bloomberg; *Index 100

1) Economic slowdown. 2) Currency volatality.

Exhibit 1: Valuation Summary
YE Mar (Rs. Mn)

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

Net Sales

6630

5180

6508

7158

8232

EBITDA Margin (%)

24.3

20.5

18.8

20.9

23.5

EBITDA

1609

Adj. Net Profit

1045

RoE (%)

75.6

EPS (Rs.)
PE (x)*

3.2

14.9

1062

680

2.1

38.9

40.8

1226

905

2.7

39.6

41.9

1495

1933

998

1313

34.6

35.8

3.0

35.1

4.0

26.7

Source: Company, Karvy Research, *Represents multiples for FY13, FY14 & FY15 are based on historic market price

For private circulation only. For important information about Karvys rating system and other disclosures refer
to the end of this material. Karvy Stock Broking Research is also available on Bloomberg, KRVY<GO>,
Thomson Publishers & Reuters

Analyst Contact
Ankit Soni | De Arul Kaarthick
040 - 3321 6274

soni.ankit@karvy.com
arul.kaarthick@karvy.com

Dec 08, 2015

Triveni Turbine Ltd

Company Background

Company Financial Snapshot (Y/E Mar)

Profit & Loss (Rs. Mn)
FY15

FY16E

FY17E

Net sales

6508

7158

8232

EBITDA

1226

1495

1933

Optg. Exp (Adj for OI)

Depreciation

5282
158

Interest

18

Other Income

341

PBT*
Tax

180

6299
192

12

161

11

184

1391

1463

1914

905

998

1313

431

Adj. PAT@

5663

439

574

Profit & Loss Ratios

EBITDA margin (%)

18.8

20.9

23.5

P/E (x)

41.9

35.1

26.7

Net margin (%)

13.9

EV/EBITDA (x)

31.0

Dividend yield (%)

0.5

13.9
23.3

0.9

15.9
17.8

1.2

Source: Company, Karvy Research; *-before exceptional item, @-adjusted for minority interest

Triveni Turbine Limited (TTL) is Indias largest industrial

steam turbine manufacturer with market share of over 60%
in the upto 30MW steam turbine segment. Turbines business
between 30-100MW ranges is handled by General ElectricTriveni Turbine Ltd JV, GE Triveni Limited (GETL). TTL
manufactures steam turbines, back pressure steam turbines,
which find its application in process co-generation industry
and condensing steam turbines, are used in power generation
and co-generation. User industries range from Sugar, Paper
& paper products, Chemicals, Petroleum products, Cement,
Steel, Aluminium etc. TTL apart from building strong products
portfolio is also building robust aftermarket services business
composing of erection and commissioning, operation and
maintenance, refurbishments and sale of spare parts to turbines
of all kinds. The integrated solutions placed the company in a
unique position to generate superior margin profile and return
ratios. TTL has over 2,500 installations across 50 countries like
Europe, Africa, Central and Latin America, South East Asia
and neighbouring countries.
Cash Flow (Rs. Mn)

Balance sheet (Rs. Mn)

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

Total Assets

5752

6671

7744

PBT^

Current assets

3860

4443

5503

Interest (net)

Net Fixed assets

1551

Other assets

342

Total Liabilities
Networth

Non current liabilities

Current Liabilities
Minority interest

357

1878
363

5752

6671

7744

129

103

83

2286

Debt

1870

122

3147

67

2883

142

3475

67

3668

149

3777

67

Balance Sheet Ratios

RoE (%)

39.6

RoCE (%)

42.8

Net Debt/Equity

Equity/Total Assets

36.0

35.8
36.8

0.0

(0.1)

(0.2)

6.6

4.4

3.4

0.4

P/BV (x)

34.6

0.4

0.5

Source: Company, Karvy Research

Exhibit 2: Shareholding Pattern (%)

Depreciation

FY16E

FY17E

1363

1463

1914

18

12

11

158

180

192

Changes in WC

(330)

(17)

(272)

Tax

(463)

(439)

(574)

Capex

(113)

(500)

(250)

Others

(17)

11

12

Others

(40)

CF from Operations

705

Investment

(215)

(61)

1139

(101)

(12)

1259

(70)

CF from Investing

(345)

(590)

(308)

Dividends

(309)

(335)

(470)

CF from Financing

(374)

(373)

(502)

Interest paid

(8)

Inc/Dec in borrowings
Change in Cash

(59)
(13)

(12)
(26)
176

(11)
(21)
450

Source: Company, Karvy Research; ^ after exceptional items

Exhibit 3: Revenue Segmentation

FIIs
19.9%

Promoters
70.0%

FY15

DIIs
3.8%

Turbines
72.5%

After market
services
27.5%

Others
6.3%

Source: BSE, Karvy Research

Source: Company, Karvy Research

Dec 08, 2015

Triveni Turbine Ltd

Rising exports to counter restraint in domestic growth

5050

6500

11% 14%

6300

2500

27% 29%

6100

5000

60%
40%

7158

7500

48%
42% 45%

6500

10000

8232

Exhibit 4: Exports momentum to continue during

FY15-17E

20%

Total sales (Rs. Mn)

FY17E

FY16E

FY15E

FY14

FY13

FY12

0%

FY11

Export to sales %

Source: Company, Karvy Research

TTL has been increasing its focus on exports to diversify its revenue base
and achieve accelerated business growth. Export revenue has shown a
CAGR of 20.2% over FY07-FY12, with over 2,500 turbine installations
across 50 countries in the category upto 30MW power rating. In fact, exports
have provided key cushion over the past two years while the domestic
market slowed down. With TTL penetrating deep into geographies like the
Middle East, Africa and Latin America, besides its current stronghold in
Europe and South East Asia could further boost revenue growth. Proximity
to customers could help in securing more product orders and expand
potential for aftermarket services. Export turnover has surged to 42% of
total turnover in FY15 from 11% of total turnover in FY11. We expect the
share of exports in total revenue to rise further to 48% in FY17E aiding
margin expansion going forward.

Segments like biomass and waste-to-energy account for highest share of order inflow in the international business of TTL,
between 60-70%. TTL management remains hopeful of investments by user industries in Bio-mass and waste-to-energy
segment during FY15-17E with the stringent enforcement of emission regulations.

High margin aftermarket segment to grow at a CAGR of 18.6% during FY15-17E:

Exhibit 5: After market sales to grow at 18.6% CAGR
29%

7158

6508

5180

2000

6630

4000

28%

18%

6299

6000

42%

29%

8000

30%

8232

10000

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

FY17E

FY16E

FY15E

FY14

FY13

0%

FY12

Total sales (Rs.Mn)

After market to sales (%)
Source: Company, Karvy Research

TTL after market offerings constitute of products, spare parts and

refurbishment, apart from services. The aftermarket services revenue has
grown at a CAGR of 16% over FY11-15 and accounted for 27% of total
revenues in FY15. The share of after-market offerings in total revenue,
which has constantly increased over the years, is expected to rise further
as the installation base of turbines increases. TTL has set up two overseas
subsidiaries, one in UK and one in UAE creating local references apart
from service channels. TTL has an order book of Rs.14.4Mn in after
market segment by H2FY16E, we expect aftermarket to grow at a CAGR
of 18.6% during FY15-17E. Moreover, the after-market segment earns a
significantly higher operating margin, thereby boosting overall profitability.

Domestic revival remains elusive in the near term; GETL and RE mission to mitigate going forward:
Exhibit 6: Average annual demand (in MW)
2000
1500
1000

1700

1425

500

800

900

Domestic demand (in MW)

625

700

Average annual demand for 0-30MW turbines fell from 1,700MW over
FY07-FY10 to 1,425MW in FY11 and further down to 800MW in FY12.
However, FY13 witnessed a modest recovery in industrial demand,
at 900MW and reduced to 625MW in FY15. Even during the slowdown
phase, TTL maintained its market share at 60% in the 0-30MW turbine
segment, which is essentially a duopoly with Siemens holding 35% and
rest being accounted for by Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) and imports,
making TTL the prime beneficiary of the upcoming revival in demand.

Source: Company, Karvy Research

Dec 08, 2015

Triveni Turbine Ltd

Sugar sector a sweetener in the domestic space

Sugar sector has remained a major contributor to the domestic business apart from process co-generation industries like
Paper and chemicals. Nevertheless, we believe the demand from Sugar to remain moderate as the potential and availability
differentials for co-generation is highly encouraging though, balance sheets of companies are stretched. Co-operative sugar
mills of Maharashtra have been the major contributor for co-generation addition and could remain so in the near future.
Exhibit 7: Existing Bagasse based Co-generation in Major Sugar Producing States in India (in MW)
100%

1.4%

80%

16.5%

8.7%
13.6%

60%

18.0%

18.3%

17.0%

15.0%

14.2%

13.7%

14.1%

13.6%

15.0%

40%

15.3%

22.2%

20.6%

19.3%

25.8%

21.6%

20%

9.9%

15.1%

19.3%

21.0%

23.4%

9.1%

0%
Maharashtra

2.8%

2.8%

2009-10
Uttar Pradesh

2.7%

2.8%

2010-11
Karnataka

8.0%
11.6%

Tamil Nadu

2.5%

2.9%

6.9%
10.6%

2011-12
Andhra Pradesh

2.5%

3.5%

2012-13
Chattisgarh

6.6%
9.5%

3.5%

2013-14
Rajasthan

Punjab

Source: Ministry of Renewable Energy (MNRE), Karvy Research

Exhibit 8: Potential for Bagasse based Co-generation in Major Sugar Producing States in India (in MW)
Sl. No.

State

Installed Capacity

Capacity (exportable energy)

Season

Maharashtra

940.4

623

Tamil Nadu

571.3

515

2
4
5
6
7
8
9

Uttar Pradesh

776.5

Karnataka

603.3

Andhra Pradesh

380.8

Bihar

Gujarat

43.9

Punjab

Haryana & others

All India Total

Source: Ministry of Renewable Energy (MNRE), Karvy Research

1250

89

450

160

554

419

27

21

140.5

165

4013.6

3221

513.5

960

318

43.4

Potential

Off-Season
1250

450

37

300
300
350
300

60

350

732

5000

Other process co-generation,

waste heat recovery, captive
power opportunities from
industries like paper and
paper products, chemicals,
petroleum products, cement,
steel etc. to remain weak
and are expected to revive
going forward as witnessed
from the slowdown in stalling
of projects across sectors
apart from new investment
announcement
in
the
renewable energy sector.

Focus on renewable energy mission 2022 and carbon emission targets 2030 to further prospects for TTL; annual
opportunity size is 373MW for next decade and half
Nearly ~70% of the total installed capacity in India is thermal based and GoI has proposed a mission mode approach to
rebalance Indias energy mix with substantial addition from renewable energy by 2022 backed by policy frameworks focusing
on Solar, Off-shore wind energy etc. These, together with commitment to cut carbon emission by 2030 effectively open-up
biomass opportunity for TTL as the current capacity stands at 4.4GW and is targeted to reach 10MW by 2022 averaging to
annual opportunity size to 373MW for next decade and half
Exhibit 9: Indias installed renewable energy

Exhibit 10: Projected renewable energy by FY22

40

200

30
4.1

150

4.1

20
10

4.4

36.4
23.8

10

100

100
50

175
60

0
Wind Power Solar Power Small Hydro
Power

Biomass
power

Source: Central Electricity Authority (CEA), NITI Aayog, Karvy Research

Total

Wind Power Solar Power Small Hydro

Power

Biomass
power

Total

Source: CEA, NITI Aayog, Karvy Research

Dec 08, 2015

Triveni Turbine Ltd

GETL order booking pace gains momentum

Exhibit 11: GETL order book to grow
2.0

2.0

1.5
1.0

1.2

1.2

0.5
0.0
FY13

FY14
Order book

FY15

Source: Company, Karvy Research

TTL entered into joint venture with GE to participate in 30-100MW turbines

opportunity since FY10. While GE provides technology in the 30-100MW
turbines space, TTL manufactures turbines at its existing facility, thereby
entire GETL revenues are considered as domestic revenues. The JV has
gained traction with the delivery of two orders: one is 35MW from Usha
martin and second is 40MW of turbines to NMDC and has turned profitable
during FY15. The order book too has gained momentum with two orders
in hand for key customers in philippines and Indonesia and are expected
to be dispatched in FY16E. TTL management expects other five orders
before end of FY16E. We expect strong revenue topline numbers in FY16E
and FY17E with the completion of these contracts.

R&D expenditure aiding IP portfolio build-up and new product launches

Exhibit 12: Consistent R&D investments
2.0%

1.6%

1.5%
1.0%

0.8%
0.7%

0.7%

1.0%

0.5%
0.0%
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

R&D to Sales (%)

FY15

TTL had invested on an average 1% of sales into Research & Development

(R&D) enabling it to adopt made-to-order model requiring engineering
capabilities to deliver products fulfilling international quality norms such
as API, ASME, AGMA, NEMA with lower life-cycle costs, efficiency,
robustness and up-time. During FY15, TTL developed 12 new models
and in FY16E, the company is slated to deliver API compliant turbine to a
customer in the fertiliser sector in the category upto 30MW category. TTL
management believes this could open-up new market segment for TTL
going forward.

Source: Company, Karvy Research

Robust balance sheet ratios; undeniably attractive

TTL has consistently maintained book-to-bill ratio over 0.9-1.0x range. Current order backlog of Rs.600Mn on standalone basis
and Rs.750mn on consolidated basis provide healthy order book visibility for FY16E & FY17E. We expect revenue and EBITDA
to grow at a CAGR of 12.5% and 25.6% respectively during FY15-17E, while the EBITDA and PAT margins are expected to
reach to 23.5% and 15.9% respectively by FY17. TTL is expected to generate free cash flow, while working capital and net debt/
equity to remain in negative territory, with RoE and RoCE reaching to 35.8% and 36.8% respectively by FY17E is undeniably
attractive.

Dec 08, 2015

Triveni Turbine Ltd

Exhibit 13: Business Assumptions

Y/E Mar (Rs. Mn)

FY14

Revenue

FY15

FY16E

FY17E Comments
We expect the revenues to grow at CAGR 12.5%
during FY15-17E on the back of increased
8232
contribution from exports and after market
services.

5180

6508

7158

Revenue Growth (%)

(21.9)
1062

25.6

1226

10.0

1495

EBITDA Margins (%)

20.5

18.8

20.9

PAT (normalized)

680

905

998

1313

(34.8)

33.0

10.2

31.6

Capex (ex. Acquisition) - cash capex

532

113

500

250

Net CFO

375

705

1139

1259

(158)

593

EBITDA

EPS

EPS Growth (%)

2.1

Net Debt

96

Free Cash Flow

Source: Company, Karvy Research

2.7

21

15.0

1933

We expect stable material cost and lower other

23.5 operating expenses which aid in improvement in
operating margins.

3.0

4.0

(152)

We expect TTL to incur maintenance CapEx

during FY16E & FY17E.

(623)

639

1009

Exhibit 14: Karvy vs Consensus

Karvy

Consensus

Divergence (%)

Comments

Revenues (Rs. Mn)

FY16E

7158

8531

(19.2)

FY17E

8232

10903

(32.4)

FY16E

1495

1733

(15.9)

FY17E

1933

2341

(21.1)

FY16E

3.0

3.5

(14.9)

FY17E

4.0

4.7

(17.0)

EBITDA (Rs. Mn)

EPS (Rs.)

We believe the consensus is way ahead of the

realistic order book build up, execution pace,
margin profiles across segments, which we
believe could get normalized going forward.

Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

Dec 08, 2015

Triveni Turbine Ltd
Exhibit 15: Revenues to grow at a CAGR of 12.5%
during FY15-17E
9000

8232

7158

75%
25%
-25%

FY17E

FY16E

10.0%

FY15

FY14

FY12

6508

5180

6630

5.3%

125%

15.0%

25.6%

-21.9%

FY13

3000

106.2%

6299

6000

Net sales (Rs.Mn)

TTL has experienced growth of revenue at a CAGR of 21% during

FY11-15. Exports played a major role by growing at a CAGR of 40% during
FY11-15 aggregating to 42% of total sales. TTLs revenues are expected to
grow at a CAGR of 12.5% during FY15-17E driven by a moderate demand
environment going forward and increased portion of sales from joint
venture. We expect TTL to maintain exports momentum going forward, as
the products to become cost competitive and expect exports to contribute
to 52% of total sales by FY17E.

Growth(%)

Source: Company, Karvy Research

Exhibit 16: EBITDA margins to expand by 470bps

during FY15-17E
TTL has experienced its EBITDA growing at a CAGR of 16% during
FY11-15 with EBITDA margins ranging between 19%-24%. We expect
EBITDA to reach Rs.1,495mn and Rs.1,933mn by growing at 22.0% and
29.5% respectively while the EBITDA margins are expected to reach
20.9% and 23.5% during FY16E and FY17E. The margin expansion is an
outcome of increased proportion of high margin aftermarket and exports
revenues in the overall revenues.

2000

1226

18.8%

25%
20%

1933

20.5%

1609

500

688

1000

20.9%

1495

23.3%

1062

22.5%

1467

1500

23.5%

24.3%

EBITDA (Rs. Mn)

FY17E

FY16E

FY15

FY14

FY13

FY12

10%

FY11

15%

EBITDA margin (%)

Source: Company, Karvy Research

Exhibit 17: PAT margins to improve by 200bps

during FY15-17E
1400

15.8%

1313

998

905

18%
11%
4%

PAT (Rs.Mn)

FY17E

FY16E

-3%

FY15

680

1045
FY13

874
FY12

-100

-2.4%

FY11 -73

400

13.9%

FY14

900

13.9%
15.9%
13.9%
13.1%

-10%

Profit after tax to improve to Rs.998 Mn and Rs.1,313 Mn and margins to

reach to 13.9%/15.9% by FY16E/FY17E. The 200bps improvement in PAT
margins comes on the back of business mix in favor of high margin after
market services and exports segments.

PAT margin (%)

Source: Company, Karvy Research

Exhibit 18: Return ratios undeniably attractive

77.2%

134.7%

-50%

38.9%

42.8%

36.0%

36.8%

38.9%

39.6%

34.6%

35.8%

-10.6%
FY11

FY12

FY13

RoE (%)

1.24

1.00

76.8%
75.6%

50%
0%

1.50

147.0%

150%
100%

Exhibit 19: Net debt to remain in the negative territory

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

0.50

-0.50

Return ratios, RoE and RoCE, have seen moderation from

the historical highs and we expect TTL to ably generate
returns going forward. We expect the RoE/RoCE to reach to
34.6%/36.0% for FY16E and 35.8%/36.8% for FY17E.

0.01

-0.05
-0.17

-0.23
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

Net debt to equity (%)

RoCE (%)

Source: Company, Karvy Research

0.05

0.04

0.00

Source: Company, Karvy Research

TTL is a debt free company having net debt to equity ratio

criss-crossing 0 mark over the period FY12-FY15. Net debt
to equity has tanked to (0.23x) in FY13 because of huge
operating cash flows and repayment of borrowings. We
expect the ratio to reach (0.19x) by FY17E on the back of
improving operating cash flows and repayment of borrowings.
7

Dec 08, 2015

Triveni Turbine Ltd
Exhibit 20: Company Snapshot (Ratings)
Low

High

Quality of Earnings
Exports

33
33

Working Capital Requirement

33

Domestic Sales

Net Debt/Equity

Quality of Management

33
33
33
33
33

Depth of Management
Promoter

33

Corporate Governance
Source: Karvy Research

Valuation & Outlook

We value TTL at 31.9x of FY17E EPS of Rs.4, which is a premium of 10% to mean P/E multiple averaged since listing, justifying
industry leading return ratios and cash generation ability. We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation for a target of
Rs.128 representing an upside potential of 21.0% for a period of 9-12 months.
Exhibit 21: PE Band
75
60
45
30
15
0

Source: Prowess, Karvy Research

Exhibit 22(a): Comparative Valuation Summary

Triveni Turbines

Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

EPS (Rs.)

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

FY14

FY15

FY16E

35043

26.2

31.0

23.3

17.8

40.8

41.9

35.1

26.7

416943

6.0

12.1

17.0

9.1

13.7

28.7

28.6

14.9 14.3

1178

BHEL

P/E (x)

Mcap
(Rs. Mn)

106

Siemens India

EV/EBITDA (x)

CMP
(Rs.)

170

419332

58.5

46.2

31.0

24.8

35.7

51.6

FY17E FY14
2.1

41.6 16.9

FY15
2.7

33.0

5.9

FY16E
3.0

22.8

6.0

FY17E
4.0

28.3
11.4

Exhibit 22(b): Comparative Operational Metrics Summary

CAGR % (FY15-17E)

RoE (%)

Sales

EBITDA

EPS

Triveni Turbines

17.6

18.7

21.1

38.9 39.6

BHEL

(2.6)

(20.3)

(7.2)

11.0

Siemens India

8.0

Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

4.0

20.0

FY14 FY15 FY16E

13.8 24.5

4.3

34.6
15.3

4.4

Price Perf (%)

Net Sales (Rs. Mn)

FY17E

3m

6m

12m

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

35.8

0.1

1.1

(3.4)

5180

6508

7158

8232

17.1

(0.3)

7.3 (17.4)

(12.4)

20.6

(31.3) (37.8)

106626
388483

103377
301475

115072
309278

134988
358423

Dec 08, 2015

Triveni Turbine Ltd

Peer Comparison
Exhibit 23: Revenue Growth (%)

Exhibit 24: EBITDA Growth (%)

25.6%

30%
20%

100%

10.0%

15.0%
50%

10%

15.4%

22.0%

FY15

FY16E

29.3%

0%

0%
FY15

-10%

FY16E

FY17E

FY17E

-50%

-20%

-100%

-30%
Triveni Turbines

Siemens India

Triveni Turbines

BHEL

Source: Company, Karvy Research

Source: Company, Karvy Research

Exhibit 25: EPS Growth (%)

Exhibit 26: RoE (%)

Siemens India

BHEL

60

110%

39.60

80%
33.0%

50%

40

31.6%

34.60

35.80

FY16E
Siemens

FY17E
BHEL

10.2%

20%

20

-10%
-40%

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

-70%
Triveni Turbines Ltd
Source: Company, Karvy Research

Siemens India

BHEL

FY15
Triveni

Source: Company, Karvy Research

Key Risk
yyEconomic slowdown: Exports order book is in the range of 45%-50% and significant slowdown in the economic activity
from current levels, which already weak at the moment, could impact TTL adversely.

yyCurrency volatility: This could significantly impact the perceived notion of cost competitive supplier as is the position
relative to currency movements.

Dec 08, 2015

Triveni Turbine Ltd

Financials
Exhibit 27: Income Statement
YE Mar (Rs. Mn)

FY13

Revenues

6630

Operating Expenses

5022

Growth (%)
EBITDA

Growth (%)

Depreciation & Amortization

Other Income

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

5180

6508

7158

8232

4118

5282

5663

6299

9.6

(34.0)

15.4

22.0

29.3

81

82

5.3

1609

128

(21.9)
1062

135

25.6

1226

158
341

10.0

1495

180
161

15.0

1933

192
184

EBIT

1562

1009

1409

1476

1925

PBT*

1535

997

1391

1463

1914

Adjusted PAT@

1045

Interest Expenses
Tax

27

12

18

329

19.6

(35.0)

33.2

10.2

998

1313

YE Mar (Rs. Mn)

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

Cash & Equivalents

320

92

108

256

706

680

Source: Company, Karvy Research; *-before exceptional item, @-adjusted for minority interest

905

439

11

500

Growth (%)

431

12

574

31.6

Exhibit 28: Balance Sheet

Sundry Debtors
Inventory

Loans & Advances

Investments
Net Block
CWIP

Miscellaneous
Total Assets

Current Liabilities & Provisions

Debt

Other Liabilities

Total Liabilities

Shareholders Equity
Reserves & Surplus

1173

1126

1483

1600

1794

386

748

666

817

992

665
50

1116

1349

229

1400

330

1564

400

1190

1112

1551

1870

1878

207

570

306

336

348

192

61

61

61

3993

4957

5752

6671

7744

188

129

103

83

2420

132

2558

358

1025

2842

139

3169

330

1418

3147

122

3398

330

1956

3475

142

3721

330

2553

3777

149

4009

330

3338

Total Networth

1383

1748

2286

2883

3668

Total Networth & Liabilities

3993

4957

5752

6671

7744

Minority Interest

Source: Company, Karvy Research

52

41

67

67

67

10

Dec 08, 2015

Triveni Turbine Ltd
Exhibit 29: Cash Flow Statement
YE Mar (Rs. Mn)

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

PBT

1534

997

1363

1463

1914

Depreciation
Interest

Inc/dec in Net WC
Other Income
Other items
Tax

Cash flow from operating activities

Inc/dec in capital expenditure
Inc/dec in investments
Others

Cash flow from investing activities

128

27

(488)

(9)
(4)

135

12

(456)

(3)
(8)

158

180

18

12

(330)

(17)

(10)
(30)

(11)
(50)

192

11

(272)

(12)

(488)

(303)

(463)

(439)

(574)

(59)

(532)

(113)

(500)

(250)

15

24

(17)

11

12

700

53

375

61

705

(215)

1139

(101)

1259

(70)

(447)

(345)

(590)

(308)

Inc/dec in borrowings

(354)

187

(59)

(26)

(21)

Dividend paid

(175)

(292)

(309)

(335)

(470)

Cash flow from financing activities

(531)

(136)

(374)

(373)

(502)

Inc/dec in share capital

Issuance of equity
Interest paid

Net change in cash

Source: Company, Karvy Research

25

(27)
178

(25)
0

(6)

(208)

1
0

(8)

(13)

0
0

(12)
176

0
0

(11)
450

Exhibit 30: Key Ratios

YE Mar

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

EBITDA Margin (%)

24.3

20.5

18.8

20.9

23.5

Net Profit Margin (%)

15.8

13.1

13.9

13.9

15.9

EBIT Margin (%)

Dividend Payout ratio (%)

23.6
17.4

Net Debt/Equity (x)

(0.2)

RoCE (%)

76.8

RoE (%)

19.5
26.7

0.1

21.6
21.9

20.6
33.4

23.4
33.4

0.0

(0.1)

(0.2)

42.8

36.0

36.8

75.6

38.9

39.6

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

3.2

2.1

2.7

3.0

4.0

BV (Rs.)

21.5

18.6

17.5

24.3

30.8

P/BV (x) *

2.2

4.5

6.6

4.4

3.4

Source: Company, Karvy Research

38.9

34.6

35.8

Exhibit 31: Valuation Parameters

YE Mar
EPS (Rs.)

DPS (Rs.)
PE (x) *

EV/EBITDA (x) *
EV/Sales (x) *

0.5

14.9

9.5
2.3

0.5

40.8
26.2

5.4

0.6

41.9
31.0

5.8

1.0

35.1
23.3

Source: Company, Karvy Research; *Represents multiples for FY13, FY14 & FY15 are based on historic market price

4.9

1.3

26.7
17.8

4.2

11

Dec 08, 2015

Triveni Turbine Ltd
Stock Ratings
Buy

Sell

Hold

Absolute Returns
> 15%

5-15%
<5%

Connect & Discuss More at

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research@karvy.com

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