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Introduction
Sea-level rise is one of the most often cited effects of
anthropogenic climate change. Rising sea levels around
the world have been documented over the last half century
and as global warming continues over the next century,
mean sea levels will continue to rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that by
2099, average sea level will rise by 0.180.59 m for all
future human activity scenarios (Meehl et al. 2007).
Rising sea levels are of particular concern to small islands
because of their limited ability to store fresh water in the
form of surface streams, lakes and groundwater (Pelling
and Uitto 2001; White and Falkland 2010).
Previous studies investigating salt-water intrusion of
coastal aquifers due to sea-level rise include Tiruneh and
Motz (2003) and Werner and Simmons (2009). Masterson
(2004) models the effects of sea-level rise on four freshwater aquifers in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. A rising
sea level in the model simulations causes water tables to
rise, stream ows to increase, a decrease in the depth of
fresh-water/salt-water interfaces, and the thinning of the
fresh-water lens in the aquifers. A subsequent study by
Masterson and Garabedian (2007) uses a simplied
hypothetical model with conditions similar to Cape Cod
to show that a 2.65 mm/year sea-level rise between 1929
and 2050 causes a fresh-water lens thickness decrease of
2% away from streams and 2231% near streams.
The intent of this study is to further investigate the
relationship between climate change and salt-water intrusion in a small sandy island aquifer. This study applies two
climate-change scenarios, based on the IPCC 2007 report,
to a simple variable density nite-difference groundwater
ow model of Shelter Island, State of New York (NY),
USA. The resulting movement of the fresh-water/salt-water
interface is used to estimate changes in the fresh groundwater system. While similar studies (Masterson and
Garabedian 2007) have investigated sea-level rise, this
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Study area
Shelter Island is located at the eastern end of Long Island
(Fig. 1). It has an area of 31 km2 and, like many small
islands, has very little fresh surface water (Soren 1978).
The inhabitants are dependent on the islands fresh-water
aquifer as a source of potable water.
The hydrology of Long Island was rst described by
Veatch et al. (1906). More extensive hydrology studies
were subsequently conducted by Cohen et al. (1968),
Franke and McClymonds (1972), and Nemickas et al.
(1989). In a hydrogeologic investigation of Shelter Island
conducted by Soren (1978), fresh groundwater was found
to be restricted to a thin geological layer known as the
Upper Glacial aquifer which was susceptible to salt-water
Fig. 1 Water-table contour map of Shelter Island. The model is based on transect CC (modied from Schubert 1999)
Hydrogeology Journal (2010) 18: 1657 1665
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1659
Fig. 3 Diagram of a a typical sandy island aquifer that follows the Ghyben-Herzberg approximation and b Shelter Islands aquifer where
the fresh-water lens is deformed by a clay layer. In both cases, z is the depth of the lens below sea level and h is the height of the water-table
above sea level
Hydrogeology Journal (2010) 18: 1657 1665
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Model description
A variable-density nite-difference groundwater ow
model was created for Shelter Island using the US
Geological Survey (USGS) program SEAWAT (Guo and
Langevin 2002; Langevin and Guo 2006) which was
derived from MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh
1988; Harbaugh et al. 2000) and MT3DMS (Zheng and
Wang 1998), a solute transport application.
The model consisted of a cross-sectional area 37 m
(120 ft) deep and 4,877 m (16,000 ft) wide cutting east
west across the island (Fig. 4). The model grid consisted
of 16 vertical layers, each 2.3 m (7.5 ft) thick, starting
from 1.5 m above mean sea level to 35.3 m below sea
level to the top of the Pleistocene marine clay layer below
which groundwater ow was believed to be negligible
(Schubert 1999). The horizontal grid spacing ranged from
122 m (400 ft) off shore and inland to 15 m (50 ft) near
the fresh-water/salt-water interface (Fig. 4).
Fig. 4 SEAWAT model created for cross-section CC'. Salt-water concentrations are 34.9 kg/m3 and the marine clay unit is inactive
Hydrogeology Journal (2010) 18: 1657 1665
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Table 1 Parameters used for each geologic unit in the model. Hydraulic conductivities varied slightly at borders between hydrogeologic units
Layer
Till
Moraine and outwash
Sandy clay
All Layers
Horizontal
conductivity
(m/day)
18
100
12
Vertical
conductivity
(m/day)
1.8
10
0.12
Effective porosity
Specic storage
Specic yield
30%
3105 m1
0.25
Calibration
Wells shown in Fig. 2 were used to calibrate the models
hydraulic conductivities. Calibration was performed for
March 1995 during which water levels were approximately
24% below long-term averages due to low recharge in
1994, which was 26% below average. Therefore, the model
was calibrated using March 1995 well-head levels and a
recharge of 50% of 1994 precipitation. Initial head
conditions were set at 1.5 m for all variable-head cells.
The transient SEAWAT model reached full steady-state
equilibrium conditions within 20,000 days (approximately
55 years) which agreed with the ow path estimates of
Schubert (1999). Compared to well-head observations, the
calibrated model had a mean absolute error of 0.07 m.
Validation
Validation of the calibrated model was performed using
additional well-head data obtained from the Suffolk
County Department of Health which regularly monitors
two of the wells used: well 51172 and well 51179 (Fig. 2).
Upon review of the well-head data and precipitation
records (Misut et al. 2003), it was apparent that years
1994 and 1995, when the model was calibrated, were
below the long-term precipitation average. However, 1996
was an above average year with a total precipitation of
143 cm. To test whether the model would correctly
respond to a substantial perturbation of recharge, a
simulation was run with 1994 (86 cm of precipitation) as
the initial recharge followed by 1996 (143 cm of
precipitation), a higher recharge year. The 1996 results
were then compared to the two well-head observations
from March of 1997 in order to consistently use readings
from the same time of year with a 1-year delay. Compared
to the calibration, the validation simulation absolute error
increased from 0.08 to 0.20 m for well 51172. For well
51179, the simulation absolute error increased from 0.05
to 0.21 m. Given that the seasonal well-head data in 1997
ranged by 0.28 m for well 51172 and 0.68 m for well
51179, the results were reasonable.
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coupled with the minimum predicted sealevel rise of the 2007 IPCC report. The
constant head cells around the island were
increased from 0.12 to 0.3 m and the recharge
rate was increased from 1.53 to 1.76 mm/day.
All other parameters were unchanged.
Scenario 3. The third simulation was a scenario where the
effects of climate change were severe with
respect to groundwater resources; precipitation decreased 2% and sea level rose 0.61 m
(2 ft). This represented the approximate
maximum predicted decrease in effective
precipitation coupled with the maximum
predicted sea-level rise of the 2007 IPCC
report. The constant head cells around the
island were increased from 0.12 to 0.73 m
and the recharge rate was decreased from 1.53
to 1.50 m/day. All other parameters were
unchanged.
Results
The hydraulic head levels for the calibrated model are
shown in Fig. 5, the salt-water/fresh-water interface in
Fig. 6, the velocity vector eld in Fig. 7, and the simulated
ow path lines in Fig. 8. The model ow results (Figs. 7
and 8) are in general agreement with previous work by
Paulsen et al. (2004) that found groundwater seepage
fronts below sea level near the shoreline, often visible at
low tide, were responsible for most of the discharge of the
aquifer. At the area of maximum submarine groundwater
discharge (SGD; Fig. 8), the model calculated a discharge
Fig. 7 Relative velocity vector eld for the calibrated model. The arrow size in each cell is proportional to the ow velocity and points in
the direction of ow
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Fig. 8 Flow path lines for the calibrated model. Area of maximum submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) in West Neck Bay which
occurs 800 m from the west end of the model grid
Discussion
The predicted movement of the fresh-water/salt-water
interface agreed with the conceptual model of Simmons
(1986). The marine clay unit restricted the movement of
the bottom of the fresh-water lens and only the sides
moved landward or seaward in response to hydrological
conditions. This restricted bottom appeared to be very
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Conclusion
In order to quantify the effects of climate change on a
small sandy island, a variable-density transient-groundwater-ow model was created for Shelter Island, NY,
USA. The 2007 IPCC report predictions for changes in
precipitation and sea-level rise over the next century were
used to create two future climate scenarios. A scenario
most favorable to groundwater retention consisting of a
predicted precipitation increase of 15% and a sea-level
rise of 0.18 m was compared to the current long-term
average. This resulted in a seaward movement of the
fresh-water/salt-water interface by an average of 23 m and
a maximum of 60 m. The water table rose by an average
of 0.27 m. A scenario least favorable to groundwater
retention, consisting of a predicted precipitation decrease
of 2% and a sea-level rise of 0.61 m, was compared to the
current long-term average. This resulted in a landward
movement of the interface by an average of 16 m and a
maximum of 37 m. The water table rose by an average of
0.59 m. The estimated change in fresh-water resources
ranged from an increase of 1 to 3%. The discrepancy in
expected changes in fresh-water lens volume was best
explained by the restrictive marine clay unit which
deforms the aquifer underlying Shelter Island. Although
it would be reasonable to assume that the severe
conditions would decrease the available fresh water
because the fresh-water/salt-water interface moves landward, the loss caused by this movement is more than
compensated for by the increased lens thickness resulting
from a rising water table. While a relatively at low-lying
island with a water table already close to the topographical
surface would lose fresh-water resources due to climate
change, an island with high bluffs, like Shelter Island, can
survive climate change with its fresh-water aquifer
relatively intact. This relatively small change in freshwater resources over the next century suggests that the
primary challenge of climate change on Shelter Island will
not be potable-water retention, but rather dealing with
other factors such as increased storm surge damage.
Acknowledgements The authors thank G. Hanson and H. Bokuniewicz for their insightful comments and suggestions. Also, J.
Wanlass of the Suffolk County Department of Health and M.
Phillips of the US Geological Survey provided data essential to this
study.
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