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Overall
Survey
If
you
were
caucusing
today,
for
whom
would
you
vote?
Undecided
6.29%
Cruz
29.31%
Trump
35.18%
Rubio
16.56%
Page 1 of 11
Kasich
12.66%
Independent
4%
Libertarian
2%
Tea
Party
Republican
12%
Conserva/ve
Republican
46%
Moderate
Republican
27%
Cruz
43%
Trump
30%
Rubio
16%
Kasich
7%
Page
2
of
11
Kasich
25%
Trump
36%
Rubio
22%
Cruz
40%
Trump
44%
Rubio
7%
Kasich
6%
Page
3
of
11
Self-Identified
Libertarians
Undecided
9%
Cruz
42%
Trump
28%
Rubio
Kasich
10%
11%
Self-Identified
Independents
Undecided
9%
Cruz
7%
Kasich
14%
Rubio
17%
Trump
53%
Page 4 of 11
Age
Ranges
18-25
3%
26-35
7%
62+
48%
36-45
12%
46-55
17%
56-61
13%
Seniors
(62+)
Undecided
7%
Cruz
28%
Trump
35%
Rubio
16%
Page 5 of 11
Kasich
14%
Ages
56-61
Undecided
6%
Cruz
27%
Trump
40%
Kasich
12%
Rubio
15%
Ages
46-55
Undecided
7%
Cruz
29%
Trump
40%
Kasich
8%
Rubio
16%
Page 6 of 11
Ages
36-45
Undecided
4%
Cruz
32%
Trump
32%
Rubio
17%
Kasich
15%
Ages
26-35
Undecided
3%
Cruz
30%
Trump
29%
Rubio
24%
Kasich
14%
Page 7 of 11
Ages
18-25
Undecided
7%
Cruz
45%
Trump
25%
Rubio
19%
Kasich
4%
CD
1
Undecided
8%
Cruz
29%
Trump
30%
Rubio
18%
Kasich
15%
Page 8 of 11
CD
2
Undecided
5%
Cruz
26%
Trump
43%
Kasich
10%
Rubio
16%
CD
3
Undecided
6%
Cruz
29%
Trump
32%
Rubio
16%
Kasich
17%
Page 9 of 11
CD
4
Undecided
7%
Cruz
33%
Trump
34%
Rubio
17%
Kasich
9%
Self-Identified Gender
M
Fe
Male
50%
Female
50%
Page 10 of 11
Asian
0%
La/no
3%
Black
4%
White
89%
Methodology
Likely
Republican
presidential
caucus
voters
were
selected
at
random
from
a
list
of
registered
voters
based
on
party
participation
and
registration
date.
Household
ages
and
locations
were
extracted
as
well
from
this
list.
60,000
households
were
called
over
the
duration
of
the
poll.
Each
household
participant
was
asked
to
opt-in
to
the
survey
if
they
planned
to
vote
in
the
2016
Kansas
Republican
Presidential
Caucus.
Using
automated
voice
response
technology
allows
each
participant
to
hear
the
questions
exactly
the
same
way,
from
the
same
voice,
spoken
with
the
same
tone
and
nuance.
Calls
are
placed
to
randomly-selected
phone
numbers
through
a
stratified
process
that
insures
approrpiate
geographic
representation.
These
calls
were
placed
from
6:00pm
to
8:30pm
local
time
from
Wednesday,
March
2nd
though
Thursday,
March
3rd.
Survey
results
undergo
a
weighting
process
to
ensure
the
sample
is
comparable
to
the
demographic
breakdown
of
likely
2016
Kansas
Republican
Presidential
Caucus
participants.
Final
results
are
based
on
these
weights
in
order
to
address
non-response
bias.
For
more
information,
please
contact
info@trf-grp.com.
Page
11
of
11
APPENDIX
CROSSTABS
I
18-25
26-35
44.53%
4.24%
18.94%
25.42%
6.87%
30.38%
13.59%
24.25%
28.39%
3.39%
18-25
100%
0%
26-35
0%
100%
36-45
0%
0%
46-55
0%
0%
56-61
0%
0%
62+
0%
0%
63.56%
12.35%
12.63%
2.81%
3.18%
5.46%
16.71%
32.04%
34.89%
16.36%
58.83%
41.17%
7.38%
84%
2.65%
0.00%
6.43%
45.30%
31.40%
12.08%
6.02%
3.15%
2.06%
24.36%
26.40%
22.35%
26.89%
59.58%
40.42%
1.80%
91.67%
3.39%
0.98%
2.17%
Cruz
Kasich
Rubio
Trump
Undecided
Conservative
Moderate
Tea
Party
Libertarian
Independent
Else
CD
1
CD
2
CD
3
CD
4
Male
Female
Black
White
Latino
Asian
Other
36-45
46-55
56-61
62+
Conservative Moderate
Tea Party
Libertarian Independent
Else
10.38%
25.42%
21.88%
35.81%
6.51%
1.18%
8.57%
9.89%
14.87%
12.42%
53.06%
40.34%
5.61%
7.32%
44.20%
2.53%
2.75%
7.52%
15.67%
16.50%
17.20%
40.35%
41.74%
10.78%
9.71%
28.25%
9.52%
3.58%
21.90%
30.48%
20.63%
5.39%
18.02%
6.98%
14.16%
16.88%
52.59%
9.39%
2.25%
6.37%
11.06%
17.29%
20.82%
42.22%
8.19%
13.65%
16.19%
42.53%
19.44%
1.59%
1.72%
9.36%
17.52%
16.28%
53.52%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
22.71%
24.20%
27.47%
25.61%
50.22%
49.78%
2.15%
91.79%
2.89%
0.00%
3.18%
20.83%
34.85%
18.54%
25.79%
55.86%
44.14%
2.04%
90.06%
2.61%
0.00%
5.29%
8.18%
31.68%
27.78%
32.36%
73.60%
26.40%
2.79%
81.98%
0.00%
0.00%
15.24%
26.42%
38.58%
12.46%
22.55%
45.52%
54.48%
6.00%
85.16%
3.00%
0.00%
5.84%
17.55%
36.69%
12.50%
33.26%
42.69%
57.31%
3.07%
82.07%
5.03%
2.26%
7.58%
CD 1
CD 2
CD 3
CD 4
26.30%
9.84%
15.73%
43.31%
4.82%
3.04%
7.16%
13.37%
14.68%
11.84%
49.92%
41.36%
24.03%
15.16%
2.36%
5.17%
11.92%
29.17%
17.51%
15.64%
31.78%
5.90%
3.93%
7.20%
10.15%
19.00%
10.73%
48.99%
48.73%
32.41%
9.59%
2.46%
1.98%
4.83%
100%
0%
0%
32.58%
9.28%
17.26%
33.92%
6.96%
1.55%
7.29%
13.11%
16.53%
15.71%
45.81%
47.08%
25.44%
11.23%
2.41%
3.02%
10.81%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
29.12%
15.34%
17.69%
30.12%
7.73%
2.00%
8.35%
9.19%
18.22%
14.64%
47.60%
47.60%
28.50%
11.45%
0.77%
4.47%
7.20%
APPENDIX
CROSSTABS
II
Cruz
Kasich
Rubio
Trump
Undecided
Male
Female
Black
White
Latino
Asian
Other
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Kasich
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
Rubio
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
Trump
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
Undecided
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
3.96%
7.74%
12.50%
17.00%
12.09%
46.71%
67.53%
9.68%
16.49%
2.92%
0.88%
2.50%
21.65%
24.71%
23.06%
30.59%
46.95%
53.05%
5.27%
89.84%
1.31%
0.00%
3.58%
0.87%
8.01%
14.18%
10.33%
12.44%
54.17%
24.31%
54.87%
5.31%
1.75%
4.12%
9.64%
26.38%
21.41%
32.04%
20.17%
58.27%
41.73%
2.32%
94.24%
1.44%
0.00%
1.99%
2.98%
10.93%
12.19%
16.59%
11.80%
45.51%
44.87%
36.12%
5.30%
1.20%
3.76%
8.75%
23.28%
26.16%
21.88%
28.68%
38.73%
61.27%
2.44%
90.56%
5.05%
0.67%
1.28%
1.89%
6.02%
10.53%
19.07%
15.13%
47.36%
39.15%
27.82%
15.05%
1.65%
5.51%
10.81%
18.65%
33.90%
20.93%
26.53%
55.47%
44.53%
3.90%
86.57%
3.56%
0.47%
5.50%
27.62%
14.81%
12.87%
39.17%
5.53%
3.08%
8.92%
13.88%
19.04%
13.40%
41.68%
44.96%
27.55%
13.43%
3.03%
3.37%
7.66%
19.48%
27.74%
24.10%
28.68%
30.98%
10.53%
20.22%
31.22%
7.05%
2.14%
6.01%
9.43%
14.89%
13.12%
54.41%
47.04%
27.12%
10.54%
1.08%
4.00%
10.22%
24.07%
27.33%
22.25%
26.35%
40.56%
7.70%
10.62%
36.01%
5.10%
5.05%
3.52%
13.51%
10.20%
7.70%
60.02%
63.67%
15.40%
6.43%
1.50%
5.81%
7.20%
11.70%
33.13%
30.36%
24.81%
41.52%
58.48%
29.57%
13.40%
16.84%
34.21%
5.98%
2.45%
7.68%
11.36%
16.53%
13.54%
48.44%
46.04%
28.18%
12.12%
1.89%
3.53%
8.25%
21.80%
26.76%
23.34%
28.10%
49.34%
50.66%
13.33%
6.37%
29.13%
43.68%
7.50%
2.41%
8.81%
14.80%
20.22%
11.68%
42.07%
42.10%
27.47%
10.89%
0.00%
3.85%
15.68%
22.34%
47.56%
19.21%
10.89%
58.46%
41.54%
0.00%
0.00%
40.20%
59.80%
0.00%
0.00%
26.58%
40.20%
0.00%
0.00%
33.22%
26.58%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
73.42%
0.00%
40.20%
26.58%
33.22%
40.20%
59.80%
26.18%
6.29%
5.27%
48.24%
14.01%
4.18%
4.03%
12.02%
31.62%
14.42%
33.73%
32.49%
21.67%
15.80%
7.79%
5.37%
16.89%
32.07%
24.17%
15.11%
28.65%
62.86%
37.14%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
Cruz
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-61
62+
Conservative
Moderate
Tea
Party
Libertarian
Independent
Else
Ridge
&
Valley
Blue
Ridge
Piedmont
Coastal
Plain
Male
Female
Black
White
Latino
Asian
Other
2.85%
4.02%
7.36%
19.25%
13.71%
52.82%
30.65%
28.29%
4.82%
3.11%
5.50%
27.63%
26.78%
21.07%
21.74%
30.41%
43.81% 100%
0%
56.19% 0%
100%
3.09% 3.17% 4.44% 100%
84.56% 88.17% 89.88% 0%
3.42% 3.37% 2.38% 0%
0.00% 0.22% 0.33% 0%
8.93% 5.06% 2.97% 0%