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PACKAGING
INDUSTRY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2015
INTRODUCTION
Harris Williams & Co. is pleased to present our packaging industry update for
February 2015. This report provides commentary and analysis on current capital
market trends and merger and acquisition dynamics within the global packaging
industry.
We hope you find this edition helpful and encourage you to contact us directly if
you would like to discuss our perspective on current industry trends or our relevant
industry experience.
OUR PRACTICE
CONTACTS
Harris Williams & Co. is a leading advisor to the packaging industry. Our significant
experience covers a broad range of end markets, industries, and business models.
Patrick McNulty
Managing Director
pmcnulty@harriswilliams.com
+1 (804) 932-1339
Packaging Types
Bags
Bottles & Cans
Caps & Closures
Flexible
Labels
Pouches
Rigid
Materials
Applications
Films
Foil
Laminations
Paperboard
Plastics
Specialty Paper
Cosmetics
E-Commerce
Food & Beverage
Healthcare
Industrial
Other
Packaging Dynamics
a portfolio company of
Darwin Olympia
Director
dolympia@harriswilliams.com
+1 (804) 915-0141
Brad Morrison
Vice President
bmorrison@harriswilliams.com
+1 (804) 915-0168
Brandt Carr
Associate
bcarr@harriswilliams.com
+1 (804) 887-6018
Ranpak Corporation
a portfolio company of
Hilex Poly
a portfolio company of
www.harriswilliams.com
PAGE | 1
PACKAGING
INDUSTRY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2015
2/3/2015
Demand for frozen fruits is soaring as smoothies are becoming more popular in the U.S. Dole Packaged Foods, the
largest seller of frozen fruit in the U.S., estimates that in 2014 about 60% of frozen fruit purchased went into smoothies,
up from about 21% in 2006. Frozen fruit sales have topped $1 billion annually, up 67% since 2010, according to Nielsen.
Cascadian Farm, a line of organic foods from cereal to frozen produce owned by General Mills Inc, is optimistic about
new packages that will be made of thicker plastic covered in shiny graphics, some that sit upright on shelves and
have resealable zippers.
Read the full article here.
THE CHIPOTLE EFFECT: WHY AMERICA IS OBSESSED WITH FAST CASUAL FOOD
Washington Post
2/2/2015
The market for fast casual food, which is almost but not quite fast food, has grown by 550% since 1999, more than ten
times the growth seen in the fast food industry over the same period, according to data from market research firm
Euromonitor. Chipotle and Panera, likely the best known purveyors of the category, have seen their sales quadruple
and triple, respectively, during that time. Panera has taken steps to be more environmentally friendly, including a
redesign of all of its packaging last year to promote recycling.
Read the full article here.
2014 A RECORD YEAR FOR PACKAGING M&A DEALS
Plastics News
1/28/2015
Last years merger and acquisition activity in the packaging sector reached a record level. Overall deal volume hit
$29.9 billion last year, up from $21.7 billion in 2013, $18.4 billion in 2012, and $28.4 billion in 2011. While lots of deals are
getting done, they also are for valuations not seen in several years. The average multiple for packaging transactions
was 7.4 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in 2014. That multiple was 6.8 just the year
before and 7.0 in 2012.
Read the full article here.
RIGID PACKAGING OUTLOOK REMAINS STRONG
Packaging News
1/8/2015
One of the key factors behind the packaging industrys recent growth spurt has been the continued success of rigid
plastic manufacturers. The performance of this important industry sub-sector has been driven by a combination of
strong innovation and a growing number of consumer goods companies switching their products out of other
packaging materials and into rigid plastics. Demand for rigid plastics isnt expected to wane any time soon.
According to Smithers Pira, the global rigid plastic packaging industry is forecast to grow during the period 2013 - 2018
by 5.2% to $174 billion. Given the bullish projections, it would be no surprise to see similarly high levels of M&A activity.
Read the full article here.
ITS PLASTIC FOAM PACKAGING, NOT THE FOOD, THATS TO GO UNDER A NEW YORK RULE
New York Times
1/7/2015
Nearly two years after Mayor Michael Bloomberg first proposed banishing foam containers in his final State of the City
address, Mayor Bill de Blasio has pledged to complete the deed. Beginning on July 1, food establishments will be
barred from using plastic foam cups or containers, compelling purveyors of curbside cart fare and Chinese takeout,
among others, to find alternatives. The sale of packing peanuts within the city limits will also be prohibited, though
peanut-laden parcels can still be shipped to New Yorkers from elsewhere. New York will now be the largest city in the
country, following San Francisco, Seattle and Portland, Oregon, to prohibit the foam containers.
Read the full article here.
www.harriswilliams.com
PAGE | 2
PACKAGING
INDUSTRY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2015
ECONOMIC UPDATE
OIL PRICES
Global oil prices continued their decline in early 2015 as low demand
growth for oil in Europe and Asia, combined with increasing supplies in $150
Feb-15:
the United States and the Middle East, have driven prices down to the
$57.00
lowest levels since early 2009.
$100
The impact of the decline in prices could have a widespread effect
Feb-15:
on the global packaging industry. First, lower gas prices could boost $50
$52.99
discretionary spending from global consumers as they save money at
the pump. Additionally, falling prices could reduce input prices for
$0
many plastic packaging providers, potentially resulting in higher
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
profits for those who can capture additional margins.
WTI
Brent
GDP
U.S.
EU-28
$200
3%
2%
1%
0%
(1%)
(2%)
(3%)
(4%)
(5%)
U.S.
110
EU-28
Q4-14:
0.6%
Q4-14:
0.4%
U.S.
120
GDP
(Quarter-Over-Quarter Growth)
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Oil Prices
(Price per Barrel)
100
Dec-14:
101.8
90
80
70
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
U.S.
CONSUMER SENTIMENT
EU-28
100
EU-28
Jan-15:
98.2
90
80
70
60
50
05 06 07 08 09 10 12 13 14 15
www.harriswilliams.com
PAGE | 3
PACKAGING
INDUSTRY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2015
KEY THEMES
INPUT PRICES
With raw material costs often representing more than 50% of COGS,
packaging companies must aggressively manage input costs.
Many experts expect the decline in oil, natural gas, and resin prices to
continue as oversupply persists along with continued tepid demand.
Pulp and paper is another critical raw material for the industry and one
that has experienced less price volatility over the past three years.
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
Crude Oil
PET
Nat Gas
LDPE
Pulp
HDPE
$20
$16
Corporate responsibility and the eco-friendly angle sit well with todays
consumers.
$12
$8
$14.8
$8.3
$9.0
1998
2003
$10.8
$12.5
$4
$0
2008
2013
2018
$2,357
$2,500
$2,053
$2,000
$1,500
$1,771
$1,505
$500
$0
2014
2015
2016
2017
www.harriswilliams.com
PAGE | 4
PACKAGING
INDUSTRY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2015
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
As of February 17, 2015 ($ in millions, except per share amounts)
Stock Performance
3 Year
Current
% of
Price
LTM High
Mkt Cap
TEV
Diversified / Specialty
Amcor Limited
$14.22
100.0%
$12,743
$15,767
(3.9%)
46.65
99.4%
9,762
13,853
12.3%
46.95
97.9%
4,754
5,846
47.11
99.2%
4,705
AptarGroup, I nc.
65.25
95.0%
34.77
Huhtamaki Oyj
Free Cash
Revenue
CAGR
2014
Price / Earnings
TEV / EBITDA
Flow
Net Debt /
Conversion1
EBITDA
Revenue
EBITDA
$11,631
$1,403
12.1%
18.0x
17.2x
13.0x
11.0x
10.6x
78.5%
2.2x
7,747
1,115
14.4%
21.8x
19.0x
12.5x
11.9x
11.1x
86.1%
3.7x
3.5%
4,977
614
12.3%
17.6x
15.9x
9.4x
8.7x
8.2x
72.4%
1.8x
6,005
(6.5%)
4,464
599
13.4%
18.3x
17.0x
10.2x
9.9x
9.6x
68.5%
2.2x
4,224
4,665
3.8%
2,618
460
17.6%
22.8x
20.3x
10.2x
10.4x
9.8x
66.9%
1.0x
98.1%
4,131
7,906
3.0%
5,053
827
16.4%
20.3x
16.7x
11.2x
9.0x
8.7x
71.4%
4.5x
25.19
97.9%
2,974
3,344
5.3%
2,326
331
14.2%
16.9x
15.4x
11.3x
9.2x
8.5x
50.7%
0.9x
Greif, I nc.
41.67
73.7%
2,074
3,266
1.5%
4,257
468
11.0%
17.0x
NA
6.9x
7.3x
NA
58.7%
2.4x
Winpak Ltd.
36.53
96.1%
1,913
1,811
6.4%
786
149
18.9%
19.7x
17.9x
13.9x
9.8x
8.5x
65.5%
NM
Margin
2015E
2016P
LTM
2015E
2016P
Median
97.9%
3.5%
14.2%
18.3x
17.1x
11.2x
9.8x
9.1x
68.5%
2.2x
Mean
95.3%
2.8%
14.5%
19.2x
17.4x
11.0x
9.7x
9.4x
68.7%
2.3x
Labels
Av ery Dennison Corporation
$53.99
99.4%
$4,919
$5,841
2.9%
$6,354
$691
10.9%
16.4x
14.4x
8.4x
8.2x
7.7x
78.8%
1.3x
130.06
96.4%
3,608
4,003
26.7%
2,581
422
16.3%
18.3x
16.6x
10.6x
9.4x
8.8x
69.8%
1.2x
64.14
96.7%
1,065
1,505
27.3%
797
141
17.8%
19.0x
15.6x
10.3x
9.5x
8.5x
79.6%
3.1x
Multi-Color Corp.
Median
96.7%
26.7%
16.3%
18.3x
15.6x
10.3x
9.4x
8.5x
78.8%
1.3x
Mean
97.5%
18.9%
15.0%
17.9x
15.5x
9.8x
9.0x
8.3x
76.1%
1.9x
$56.98
99.0%
$24,138
$33,828
0.2%
$26,168
$4,201
16.1%
14.9x
13.0x
9.1x
7.9x
7.6x
65.1%
2.3x
Rock-Tenn Company
70.30
99.6%
9,836
12,625
22.2%
9,978
1,564
15.7%
16.4x
15.8x
8.1x
7.8x
7.8x
63.8%
1.8x
54.06
99.6%
9,041
11,725
2.7%
5,604
975
17.4%
24.8x
22.1x
12.6x
11.2x
10.6x
62.8%
2.6x
82.22
99.1%
8,089
10,316
31.4%
5,917
1,151
19.5%
16.4x
14.7x
9.5x
8.5x
8.0x
78.2%
1.9x
15.44
95.7%
5,050
6,942
0.3%
4,240
711
16.8%
20.4x
17.6x
10.0x
9.1x
8.5x
71.0%
2.7x
33.01
95.9%
3,169
4,187
36.7%
2,314
455
19.6%
15.6x
14.1x
9.6x
8.5x
8.0x
68.6%
2.2x
PH Glatfelter Co.
25.04
79.2%
1,064
1,420
4.0%
1,811
182
10.1%
14.1x
11.4x
8.2x
7.3x
6.4x
40.6%
2.0x
Median
99.0%
4.0%
16.8%
16.4x
14.7x
9.5x
8.5x
8.0x
65.1%
2.2x
Mean
95.4%
13.9%
16.4%
17.5x
15.5x
9.6x
8.6x
8.1x
64.3%
2.2x
Rigid
Ball Corporation
$74.39
99.2%
$10,194
$13,172
(0.5%)
$8,512
$1,216
14.3%
19.2x
17.3x
11.0x
11.0x
10.5x
67.4%
2.4x
5.48
90.9%
5,891
7,753
(3.2%)
3,838
869
22.6%
16.0x
15.1x
8.6x
9.4x
9.1x
61.8%
1.4x
26.04
74.0%
4,276
7,341
(2.5%)
6,820
1,257
18.4%
10.7x
9.4x
6.4x
6.3x
6.0x
65.7%
2.3x
57.27
99.4%
3,620
4,996
3.5%
3,887
536
13.8%
17.3x
16.0x
9.5x
9.4x
9.0x
73.4%
2.6x
Rexam plc
Median
95.0%
(1.5%)
16.4%
16.6x
15.5x
9.0x
9.4x
9.1x
66.6%
2.4x
Mean
90.9%
(0.7%)
17.3%
15.8x
14.5x
8.9x
9.0x
8.7x
67.1%
2.2x
Overall Median
97.9%
3.5%
16.1%
17.6x
15.9x
10.0x
9.2x
8.5x
68.5%
2.2x
Overall Mean
94.8%
7.7%
15.6%
17.9x
16.0x
10.0x
9.2x
8.7x
68.1%
2.2x
1)
Free cash flow conversion defined as EBITDA less capital expenditures divided by EBITDA.
PAGE | 5
PACKAGING
INDUSTRY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2015
PUBLIC MARKETS
3-YEAR REVENUE CAGR (2011 2014)
2.8%
Diversified / Specialty
13.9%
6.0%
Diversified / Specialty
18.9%
Labels
22.5%
Labels
18.7%
(0.7%)
4.2%
Rigid
15.1%
16.5%
Labels
17.4%
1.9x
Labels
8.6x
2.2x
9.0x
Rigid
2.3x
Diversified / Specialty
9.0x
67.1%
Labels
64.3%
76.1%
Labels
15.2%
Rigid
68.7%
Diversified / Specialty
2.2x
Rigid
12x
11x
10x
Current
3-Year
5-Year
Diversified / Specialty
11.2x
8.8x
7.8x
Labels
10.2x
8.6x
7.9x
9.5x
8.8x
7.2x
Rigid
9.0x
8.4x
7.9x
10.0x
8.8x
7.5x
Total Packaging
9x
8x
7x
6x
5x
4x
Feb-10
Feb-11
Diversified / Specialty
Feb-12
Labels
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Rigid
PAGE | 6
PACKAGING
INDUSTRY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2015
Target
MeadWestv aco
Corporation
Acquirer
Rock-Tenn Company
(Merger)
Pamplona Capital
Management LLP
12/23/2014 Constantia Flexibles Group Constantia Flexibles Group GmbH manufactures and sells v arious flexible Wendel
GmbH
packaging products in Europe, North and South America, Africa,
Australia, Asia, and Oceania.
12/10/2014 Tri-Delta Plastics, I nc.
11/12/2014 Clondalkin Group Holdings Clondalkin Group Holdings B.V., Specialist Packaging Div ision offers
B.V., Specialist Packaging specialty secondary packaging solutions for the pharmaceutical,
Div ision
health, and personal care industries.
Essentra plc
NOVOLEX
9/16/2014
AEA I nv estors LP
8/25/2014
8/13/2014
Ranpak Corporation
6/19/2014
Georgia-Pacific Consumer
Products LP
6/17/2014
NOVOLEX
6/3/2014
Mondi Limited
5/1/2014
4/22/2014
Pregis Corporation
Olympus Partners
1/6/2014
New Page Holdings I nc. produces and sells printing and specialty papers Verso Paper Corp.
in North America.
PAGE | 7
PACKAGING
INDUSTRY UPDATE FEBRUARY 2015
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Our clients benefit form our deep-sector experience, integrated industry intelligence and
collaboration across the firm, and our commitment to learning what makes them unique. For more
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PAGE | 8
Bloomberg
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Capital IQ
Federal Reserve Economic Data
www.eMarketer.com
Eurostat
Freedonia
New York Times
Packaging News
Plastics News
The Wall Street Journal
University of Michigan
U.S. Census Bureau
Washington Post
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The firm has deep industry knowledge, global transaction expertise, and an unwavering commitment to excellence. Harris Williams & Co. provides
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Investment banking services are provided by Harris Williams LLC, a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC, and Harris Williams & Co.
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PAGE | 9