International Centre for

Applied Climate Sciences

(ICACS)

Climate Outlook and Review

Focus on sugar industry
requirements
Issued 1 March 2016
Roger C Stone

University of Southern Queensland | Document title

Overview

We are currently further progressing into the El Nio pattern.

The SOI phase for the end of February was classified as being
a Consistently Negative phase.
The SOI to the end of February was close to minus 19.1 (-19.1) putting this
recent phase within the Consistently Negative category.
The likelihood of the current El Nio pattern being replaced by a La Nia
pattern is not certain, based on latest ocean modelling data. It is also
suggested there is some risk we may drift back into another El Nio pattern.

Rainfall probability values of exceeding the long term median are now
mostly between about 50% to 60% but with some variability to lower values
in the northern inland and higher values in the southern and western inland
and far north west (see attached map).

For sugar regions, the SOI phase system output for the three months
March to May, 2016, suggests about 50% probability of exceeding median
rainfall in most districts (climatological normal).

For the longer term (eg April to June, 2016) the European ECMWF GCM
forecast system suggests continuation of below normal rainfall probability
values for the coming April to June 2016 period for our regions.

The current SOI phase is classified as consistently negative.

According to BoMs and NOAAs forecasting system and USQs

analysis, the MJO is next due to affect our longitudes approximately
mid-March.

Average to above normal maximum and especially minimum temperature

probability values are indicated for most sugar regions as per figures 2/3
but mostly below normal minimum temperatures are forecast as per
figure 3.

University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS)
| Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone

Figure 1: Forecast rainfall probability values for Queensland - probability of

exceeding the respective long-term median values overall for the total period March
to May 2016. Regions shaded grey have around normal rainfall probability values
while areas shaded blue and dark blue have above normal probability values. Yellow
areas have low rainfall probability values. Note that these values are relative to
normal rainfall at this particular period of year.

University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS)
| Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone

Figure 2: Probability of maximum temperatures averaged over the three month

period March to May 2016 being above the long-term median for this time of the
year. Regions dark blue have well above normal maximum temperature probability
values.

University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS)
| Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone

Figure 3: Probability of minimum temperatures averaged over the three month

period March to May 2016 being above the long-term median for this time of the
year. Regions shaded dark blue and dark grey have well above normal probability
values.

University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS)
| Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone

Figure 4: Probability of radiation values, averaged over the three month period
March to May 2016 of being above the long-term median for this time of the year.
Regions shaded blue and dark grey have above normal probability values. (Regions
shaded yellow have below normal values).

University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS)
| Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone

Figure 5: Forecast rainfall probability values for Australia for the overall period March to
May 2016 (after Stone, Hammer and Marcussen, 1996). Regions shaded yellow and light
grey have low probability values for this period relative to this time of the year. Regions
shaded dark grey and dark blue have above normal rainfall probability values.

Figure 6: Monthly SOI values since January 2010 the most recent phase is Consistently
Negative. The most recent 30-day average value, to 29 February 2016, is minus -19.1
(-19.1). The SOI has been mostly negative for over 20 months now.
University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS)
| Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone

Longer-term forecasts:
The ECMWF and POAMA models provide useful assessments of longer-term rainfall
probability values for sugar regions (and other agricultural regions).
The ECMWF example suggests average rainfall probability values for the coming
April to June 2016 period for our regions. However, ECMWF are using a different
ocean model to US CPC that is showing a revamp of the El Nio pattern.

Figure 7. Updated ECMWF forecast rainfall probability values for eastern Australia and the
region generally, for the April to June period, 2016. The white area along the NE Australia
coast indicates average rainfall probabilities with the scale provided at the top of the diagram
(Courtesy ECMWF, Reading, UK).

The United States Climate Prediction Center and the Bureau of Meteorology
CAWCR Centre provide useful forecasts of sea-surface temperatures in important
regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean that have relevance for longer-term rainfall
and temperature patterns over Australian sugar regions.
An example of a recent/current forecast of sea-surface temperatures in the
Nino3.4 region is provided in Figure 8 below. This figure indicates well above
normal sea-surface temperatures likely to extend through much of the first half of
2016. However, the latest model outputs (from this highly regarded model)
suggest some rebound to a weak El Nino by winter, 2016. Note that this is a
particularly volatile time of the year and forecasts can change rapidly from now
through to about May or June.
University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS)
| Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone

Figure 8. Forecast of sea-surface temperature anomalies (how much they vary from normal)
for the central Equatorial Pacific Ocean for the period through to November, 2016. At this stage,
this later information with updated model nitialisations is now showing less chance of the
current El Nino pattern moving to a La Nina partern. Indeed, there is now some suggestion
of a weak El Nino or otherwise a neutral ocean pattern from winter 2016 onwards.
Courtesy US Climate Prediction Center

Detailed rainfall probability values for selected locations.

Mossman March to May 2016

100% chance of exceeding 200mm
90%

410mm

80%

424mm

70%

452mm

60%

528mm

50%

632mm

40%

689mm

30%

820mm

20%

1069mm

10%

1171mm

Max ever record this pattern at Mossman 1318mm

University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS)
| Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Mossman for this period: 30%
Innisfail March to May 2016
100% chance of exceeding 823mm
90%

895mm

80%

952mm

70%

1075mm

60%

1128mm

50%

1138mm

40%

1507mm

30%

1708mm

20%

1995mm

10%

2236mm

Max ever record this pattern at Innisfail 2641mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Innisfail: 46%

Mareeba March to May 2016

100% chance of exceeding 46mm
90%

63mm

80%

81mm

70%

94mm

60%

113mm

50%

170mm

40%

182mm

30%

240mm

20%

296mm

10%

415mm

Max ever record this pattern at Mareeba 766mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Mareeba: 31%

University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS)
| Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone

10

Ingham March to May 2016

100% chance of exceeding 174mm
90%

313mm

80%

364mm

70%

406mm

60%

445mm

50%

517mm

40%

710mm

30%

828mm

20%

1036mm

10%

1289mm

Max ever record this pattern at Ingham 1650mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Ingham: 43%

Ayr (BSC) March to May 2016

100% chance of exceeding

25mm

90%

42mm

80%

86mm

70%

109mm

60%

139mm

50%

183mm

40%

197mm

30%

243mm

20%

259mm

10%

529mm

Max ever recorded this pattern 630mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median: 37%

University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS)
| Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone

11

Mackay Sugar March to May 2016

100% chance of exceeding

220mm

90%

248mm

80%

299mm

70%

305mm

60%

347mm

50%

414mm

40%

453mm

30%

547mm

20%

592mm

10%

873mm

Max ever recorded this pattern 911mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median: 50%

Bundaberg Sugar March to May 2016

100% chance of exceeding

83mm

90%

130mm

80%

188mm

70%

274mm

60%

289mm

50%

353mm

40%

426mm

30%

460mm

20%

540mm

10%

634mm

Max ever recorded this pattern 900mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median: 75%

University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS)
| Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone

12

Childers March to May 2016

100% chance of exceeding 19mm
90%

76mm

80%

100mm

70%

145mm

60%

187mm

50%

211mm

40%

256mm

30%

337mm

20%

442mm

10%

613mm

Max ever record this pattern at Childers 734mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Childers: 43%

Condong (NSW) Sugar Mill March to May 2016

100% chance of exceeding
187mm
90%

250mm

80%

349mm

70%

404mm

60%

440mm

50%

473mm

40%

498mm

30%

528mm

20%

590mm

10%

635mm

Max ever recorded this pattern 1023mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median: 41%

University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS)
| Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone

13

Recent forecast maps

As these forecasts are issued for a three-month validity on a rolling monthly
basis it has been decided to provide a continuous reference to these forecasts, as
below:

Seasonal climate forecast valid

1 March to 31 May 2016

Seasonal climate forecast valid

1 January to 31 March 2016

Seasonal climate forecast valid

1 February to 30 April 2016

Seasonal climate forecast valid

1 December 2015 to 29 February 2016

University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS)
| Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone

14

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) would next be due in approx. late March,
2016. Please refer to the BoM website (below) for updated information.

The information below also presents a one-stop shop (as requested through
sugar industry workshops) for such information to be available.

For updated climate information

Click on the following links:

For the MJO

For weekly SSTs

For easterly (and westerly) wind anomalies across the Pacific

For sub-surface temperatures across the Pacific

For ECMWF forecast products

For plume forecasts of SSTs in the central Pacific

For a complete history of the SOI

The Long Paddock

Additional information on ENSO

University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS)
| Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone

15