Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
zalp zer
@Stanford University, MS&E 262
April 29, 2015
Announcements
Please sit as sparsely as possible.
Check your email to ensure that you received the link.
Keep your completed assignment turn it in after the game
is over.
3. Demand = X + Y is realized
4. Supplier delivers MIN(Q, Demand) to the Retailer, which
are then sold to the end customers
dummy player.
supplier?
What affected your decisions in the experiment?
Strategies?
Opportunistic?
Altruistic?
Reciprocal?
Did you change your strategy overtime?
10
Report
Produce Q
Report
Actual X
Trust
Trustworthiness
Source: zer and Zheng. 2011. Trust in Forecast Information Sharing. Management Science
11
Report
Produce Q
Actual X
Red line: 45 Degree line
Trustworthiness
Report
Red line: Optimal Q based on the
retailers report
Trust
Source: zer and Zheng. 2011. Trust in Forecast Information Sharing. Management Science
57(6), pp. 11111137.
12
Report
Produce Q
Report
Actual X
Red line: 45 Degree line
Trust
Trustworthiness
You? (UTD)
14
You (UTD)
What IF?
How would you change your strategy
If
16
Report
Produce Q
Actual X
Report
China
48
56
60
50
42
50
40
36
27
36
40
30
21
30
21
20
20
10
CN Supplier
0
US Supplier
US Retailer
CN Retailer
10
CN Retailer
US Retailer
US Supplier
CN Supplier
Non-pecuniary motives
20
Mean = 250
1/450
25
F(Q*)
= Area of shaded region
= 1/5
475
Q* = 115
21
Demand
What is Trust?
What do you think trust means
in the context of forecast sharing in a supply chain?
in a more general context?
What are the prerequisites for you to trust?
22
23
defining trust
Determinants:
Risk attitudes
Aversion to betrayal
Reputation
Others?
Quote from: Rousseau, D., S. Sitkin, R. Burt, C. Camerer. 1998. Not so different after all: A cross-discipline view of trust. Academy of Management
24
Review, 23(3) 393-404.
payoffs.
25
2000 Q2
2000 Q3
2000 Q4
2001 Q1
Actual
1999 Q1
1999 Q2
1999 Q3
1999 Q4
2000 Q1
2000 Q2
2000 Q3
2000 Q4
2001 Q1
2001 Q2
2001 Q3
2001 Q4
Source: M. Cohen, et al. 2003. Measuring Imputed Costs. Management Science, 49(12)
16531670.
26
Soruce: zer, Zheng and Chen. 2011. Trust in Forecast Information Sharing. Management
Science 57(6), pp. 1111-1137.
27
Summary
Forecasting is a fundamental
Prerequisite for production planning, material procurement,
capacity planning
Firms in a supply chain may have different
information