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Backgrounder:Yemen'sCivilWar,theHouthis,andtheSaudiInterventionCouncilonForeignRelations

CFRBackgrounders
YemeninCrisis
Author:ZacharyLaub,OnlineWriter/Editor
Updated:July8,2015

Introduction
YemenfacesitsbiggestcrisisindecadeswiththeoverthrowofitsgovernmentbytheHouthis,aZaydi
ShiamovementbackedbyIran.AstheHouthiscapturedthecapitalofSanaaandadvancedsouth
towardtheGulfofAdeninMarch2015,aSaudiledcoalitionlaunchedanaircampaigntoreinstate
Yemensinternationallyrecognizedgovernment.
Thesedevelopmentshavederailedapoliticaltransitionfollowinga2011uprisingagainstlongtime
PresidentAliAbdullahSaleh.Amidfactionalfighting,alQaedasArabianPeninsula
franchisehasfoundnewopportunitiestocaptureterritory.Meanwhile,inJuly2015,theUnited
NationsdesignatedthehumanitarianemergencyinYemenassevereandcomplexasthosein
Iraq,SouthSudan,andSyria,whileSecretaryGeneralBanKimooncalledforapausein
hostilitiestofacilitatethedeliveryofreliefsupplies.
Analystsworrythatescalatingforeigninvolvementcouldintroducesectarianconflictresembling
fightinginSyriaandIraq.Withnumerousarmedfactionsabletospoilanypotentialsettlement,the
prospectsofareturntonegotiationsremainuncertain.ManyexpertsquestionwhetherYemencan
onceagainbeaviable,unifiedstate.
HowdidYemenbecomesodivided?
ThemodernYemenistatewasformedin1990withtheunificationoftheU.S.andSaudibacked
YemeniArabRepublic,inthenorth,andtheUSSRbackedPeoplesDemocraticRepublicofYemen,to
thesouth.ThemilitaryofficerAliAbdullahSaleh,whohadruledNorthYemensince1978,assumed
leadershipofthenewcountry.SomewhatlargerthanthestateofCalifornia,Yemenhasa
populationofabouttwentyfivemillion.
Despiteunification,thecentralgovernmentswritbeyondthecapitalofSanaawasneverabsolute,
andSalehsecuredhispowerthroughpatronageandbyplayingvariousfactionsoffoneanother.
UnderSaleh,Yemenfacednumerouschallengestoitsunity.AlHirak,amovementofsouthern
Yemeniswhofeltmarginalizedunderthepostunificationgovernment,rebelledin1994theyhave
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sincepressedforgreaterautonomywithinYemen,ifnotsecession.AlQaedaintheArabianPeninsula
(AQAP)andtherelatedAnsaralShariainsurgentgrouphavecapturedterritoryinthesouth.The
Houthimovement,whosebaseisamongtheZaydiShiasofnorthernYemen,roseupagainst
Salehsgovernmentsixtimesbetween2004and2010.

Yemen's
administrativedivisions.(CourtesyCIA)

WashingtonlentitssupporttoSalehbeginningintheearly2000s,whencounterterrorism
cooperationbecameWashingtonsoverridingregionalconcern.TheUnitedStatesgaveYemen$1.2
billioninmilitaryandpoliceaidbetween2000,whentheUSSColebombingintheYemeniportof
AdenfirstmadealQaedaaU.S.priority,and2011,accordingtotheonlinedatabaseSecurity
AssistanceMonitor.
RightsgroupslongchargedthatSalehranacorruptandautocraticgovernment.AstheArab
uprisingsspreadtoYemenin2011,thepresidentspoliticalandmilitaryrivalsjockeyedtoousthim.
WhileYemenisecurityforcesfocusedonputtingdownprotestsinurbanareas,alQaedamadegains
inoutlyingregions.
Underescalatingdomesticandinternationalpressure,Salehsteppedasideafterreceiving
assurancesofimmunityfromprosecution.Hisvicepresident,AbedRabboMansouralHadi,assumed
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officeasinterimpresidentinatransitionbrokeredbytheGulfCooperationCouncil(GCC)and
backedbytheUnitedStates.AspartoftheGCCstimetableforatransition,in2013theUNsponsored
NationalDialogueConference(NDC)convened565delegatestoformulateanewconstitution
agreeabletoYemensmanyfactions.ButtheNDCendedafterdelegatescouldntresolvedisputesover
thedistributionofpower.
Whatarethecausesofthecrisis?
UnderpressurefromtheInternationalMonetaryFund,HadisgovernmentliftedfuelsubsidiesinJuly
2014.TheHouthimovement,whichhadattractedsupportbeyonditsbaseforcallingoutfaultsinthe
transitionprocess,organizedmassprotestsdemandinglowerfuelpricesandanewgovernment.
HadissupportersandtheSunniIslamistpartyIslahheldcounterrallies.Clashesbrokeoutbetween
themandtheHouthis,whocapturedthecapitalbymidSeptember.
TheUNbrokeredapeacedealinlateSeptember2014undertermsseenasfavorabletotheHouthis.
Underit,theywouldwithdrawfromSanaa,andallYemenipartieswouldagreeonatransitional
technocraticgovernment.
ButHouthiadvancestowardtheendof2014exacerbatedYemensfractures:TheHouthisclashed
withforcesloyaltoIslah,aswellasSunnitribesmenthatalliedwithAQAP.Southernseparatists
rampeduptheircallsforindependence.Yemensarmedforcessplitaswell.DeposedPresidentSaleh
continuestocommandtheloyaltyofsomeelementsofthearmedforces.TheyalliedwiththeHouthis,
contributingtotheirbattlefieldsuccess.
AQAP,describedbytheU.S.governmentasthemostdangerousaffiliate,hasbenefittedfromthechaos.

InJanuary2015,afteraconstitutionaldisputebetweentheHouthisandthegovernment,theHouthis
consolidatedtheircontrolofthecapitalandplacedHadiandseveralmembersofthegovernment
underhousearrest.HadisgovernmentresignedratherthansubmittoHouthidominance.Thenext
month,theHouthisissuedtheirownconstitutionaldeclarationandestablishedgoverningbodies,
movesthatprovokedpublicbacklashandinternationalcondemnation.TheUnitedStatesandseveral
EUandGulfcountriesclosedtheirembassies.TheUNSecurityCouncilcalledontheHouthisto
withdrawfromgovernmentandsecurityinstitutions.
HadiwentintoexileinSaudiArabia,butremainsYemensinternationallyrecognizedexecutive.
Meanwhile,theHouthiscontinuedtheirsouthwardadvance,andencircledthestrategicport
cityofAdenbyMarch.
OnMarch26,2015,SaudiArabiabeganairstrikesagainstthemilitiagroup,intendingtorollback
advancesbytheHouthis,whomitviewsasaproxyofrivalIranandathreattoitssouthernborder,
andreinstateHadi.Theconflictisthefirstmajoroneundertakenbythenewking,Salman,andatest
forhisson,DefenseMinisterMohammadbinSalman.
Whoarethepartiestothisconflict?

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TheHouthisbeganinthelate1980sasareligiousandculturalrevivalistmovementamong
practitionersofZaydiShiisminnorthernYemen.TheZaydisareaminorityinthemajoritySunni
Muslimcountry,butpredominantinthenorthernhighlandsalongtheSaudiborder,anduntil1962,
Zaydiimamsruledmuchoftheregion.TheHouthisbecamepoliticallyactiveafter2003,
opposingSalehforbackingtheU.S.ledwarinIraq.AlsoknownasAnsarAllah,theHouthis
repeatedlyfoughttheSalehregimeand,in2009,aninterveningSaudiforce.InpostSalehYemen,
themilitarilycapablebutpoliticallyinexperiencedmovementgainedsupportfromfarbeyondits
northernbaseforitscriticismsofthetransition.However,initspushtoestablishdominance,ithas
alienatedonetimesupporters,writestheInternationalCrisisGroup.
FormerPresidentAliAbdullahSaleh,thoughdeposedin2011,hasgainedinpopularityamong
someYemeniswhohavegrowndisillusionedwiththetransition.HeandhissonAhmedAbdullah
SalehcommandtheloyaltyofsomeelementsofYemenssecurityforces.Theiralliancewiththe
Houthisisatacticalone:Salehisasecularnationalist,andtheHouthisfoughthisregimeformany
years.InlateApril,Salehcalledonhisloyaliststowithdrawfromcapturedterritories,a
demandoftheUNSecurityCouncil.SalehsloyalistsopposeHadisgovernmentandseekto
regainaleadingroleinYemen.Salehsparty,theGeneralPeoplesCongress,holdsamajorityin
parliament.
IranistheHouthisprimaryinternationalbackerandhasallegedlyprovidedtheHouthiswith
economicsupport.ButregionalspecialistscautionagainstoverstatingTehransinfluenceoverthe
movement.TheHouthisaremuchlessaclientofIranthanHezbollahortheIraqiShiamilitias,says
TexasA&MUniversitysF.GregoryGauseIII.Theyremorehomegrown.(IraniansandHouthis
adheretodifferentschoolsofShiaIslam.)TheHouthisandIransharesimilargeopolitical
interests:IranseekstochallengeSaudiandU.S.dominanceoftheregion,andtheHouthisarethe
primaryoppositiontoHadisSaudiandU.S.backedgovernmentinSanaa.
PresidentAbedRabboMansouralHadi,Yemensinternationallyrecognizedpresident,has
calledhisresignationnull.HeremainsinexileinSaudiArabia,however,anditisunclearwhetherhe
commandsmuchauthorityontheground.TheSunniIslamistpartyAlIslah(Reform),which
representsmanytribesmenaroundthecountry,backHadisgovernment.TheyaretheHouthischief
antagonist.
TheSaudishavedialedbacktheirgoals.Theywouldclaimvictoryforjustareturntothetable.F.Gregory
Gause,III,TexasA&MUniversity

SaudiArabiahasledthecoalitionaircampaigntorollbacktheHouthisandreinstateHadis
government.RiyadhperceivesthatHouthicontrolofYemenwouldmeanahostileneighborthat
threatensitssouthernborder.ItalsoconsidersYemenafrontinitscontestwithIranforregional
dominance,andlosingSanaawouldonlyaddtowhatitperceivesasanascendantIranthathasallies
inpowerinBaghdad,Beirut,andDamascus.Riyadhsconcernshavebeencompoundedbyits
perceptionthattheUnitedStatesisretrenchingfromtheregionanditspursuitofanIranian
nucleardealwillemboldenTehran.JournalistPeterSalisburywritesthatSaudiArabiamaybetrying
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torestoreitslongstandingstrategyofcontainmentandmaintenancevisvisitssouthern
neighbor:KeepYemenweak,andthereforebeholdentoRiyadh,butnotsoweakthatstatecollapse
couldthreatenitwithaninfluxofmigrants.
SaudiArabiahascobbledtogetheracoalitionofSunnimajorityArabstates:Bahrain.Egypt,
Jordan,Kuwait,Morocco,Qatar,Sudan,andtheUAE.(ThatincludesalltheGCCstatesexceptfor
Oman,apotentialmediator.)TheoperationseemstoconsolidateSaudiArabiasleadership
overthebloc,whichhassplitoverotherregionalissues,andsignalsconsensusagainstallowingIran
togaininfluenceinYemen.ButtheirassistancetotheSaudiledaircampaignhasbeenlimited.Both
EgyptandPakistanreceiveGulfaid,yetneithervolunteeredthegroundtroopsthatSaudiArabia
requested.Asaresult,Gausesays,theSaudishavedialedbacktheirgoals.Theywouldclaimvictory
forjustareturntothetable,whereHadihasaseatandtheHouthishavebeenpushedbackfrom
Aden.
TheUnitedStatesinterestsincludemaintainingstabilityinYemenandsecurityforSaudiborders
freepassageintheBabalMandeb,thechokepointthroughwhich4.7millionbarrelsofoilper
daytransitandagovernmentinSanaathatwillcooperatewithU.S.counterterrorism
programs(PDF).Inthecurrentconflict,WashingtonhasprovidedtheSaudiledcoalitionwith
logisticalandintelligencesupport,aswellasstationedwarshipsintheGulfofAden.Butwhilethe
UnitedStatescontinuestosupportcoalitionoperations,bylateAprilU.S.officialspressedfor
restraint,warningtheirSaudicounterpartsthattheintensityofthebombingcampaignwas
undercuttingU.S.andSaudipoliticalgoalsnamely,areturntothetransition.
WhatistheroleofalQaedaintheArabianPeninsula?
AQAP,describedbytheU.S.governmentasthemostdangerousalQaedaaffiliate(PDF),has
benefittedfromthecurrentchaos.Ithassufferedsomebattlefieldsetbacksatthehandsof
Houthiforces,buttheHouthisrapidadvanceshaveledsomeSunnitribesmentoalignwithalQaeda
againstaperceivedcommonthreat.AdistractedYemeniarmyhaseasedpressureagainstthe
militants.
ThoughU.S.dronestrikescontinue,inlateMarchWashingtonwithdrewspecialoperations
forcesthatweretrainingandassistingYemenitroops,andtheSaudiaircampaignhasreportedly
destroyedmilitaryinstallationsbelongingtoU.S.trainedYemenicounterterrorismunits.In
April,AQAPcapturedmuchofthecityofMukalla,andsprungthreehundredinmates,many
believedtobeAQAPmembers,fromthecitysprison.
Whatisthehumanitariansituation?
Withapovertyrateofmorethan50percent,YemenwastheArabworldspoorestcountrypriorto
theHouthioffensiveandSaudiledaircampaign,whichbeganinmidMarch.Theconflicthas
pushedthecountryintohumanitarianemergency.
TheWorldHealthOrganizationsaysthat3,200hundredYemenishavebeenkilledandnearlysixteen
thousandinjuredsincemidMarch.Halfofthosekilledhavebeencivilians,theUNestimates.
Criticalinfrastructurehasbeendestroyed.
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TheUNrefugeeagencyreportedinthesummerof2015thatmorethanonemillionYemeniswere
internallydisplacedandshelterisscarce.Humanitariangroupshavewarnedofpossiblemass
outflowsacrossYemenslandborderswithSaudiArabiaandOman,andacrosstheGulfofAdento
SomaliaandDjibouti.

Aboy
pullscontainersofwateramidanacuteshortageinSana'a.(Photo:MohamedalSayaghi/Reuters)

Inall,theUNsays,"morethan21.1millionpeoplefourinfiveYemenisneedsomeformof
humanitarianassistance."Internationalorganizationsandnongovernmentalorganizationshavebeen
hinderedbyongoingfightingaswellasanairandseablockadethatSaudiArabiaestablishedto
enforceaUNarmsembargo.
ThishasexacerbatedfoodandfuelshortagesYemenreliesonimportsforboth.Thecountry
importsmorethan80percentofitsfood,including90percentofstaplessuchaswheatandallof
itsrice,accordingtoreliefgroupOxfam.NearlythirteenmillionYemenisdonothaveconsistent
accesstoadequatefood,theUNestimates.
Meanwhile,theaidgroupDoctorsWithoutBordersreportsthenearcollapseofYemenshealth
careinfrastructure.
Whataretheprospectsforasolutiontothecrisis?
TheHouthisassertionofpowerandtheSaudiledaircampaignhavemilitarizedthedivisions
betweentheparties,andintheshortterm,conditionsmaymilitateagainstanegotiatedsettlement.
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TheHouthis,wholongfeltmarginalizedfromYemenipolitics,thinkthatiftheyevencompromise,
thatwillmeandefeatandtheireventualelimination,journalistAdamBarontoldPBSFrontline,
whilesouthernersbelievethattheHouthisposeareciprocalthreattothem.AsIranandSaudiArabia
increasinglyperceiveeachothermeddlinginYemen,theywilllikelyuptheirsupporttotheir
respectiveclients.ThatcouldintroduceasectariandimensiontoYemenscivilconflict,making
theconflictevenmoretoxic.
ThesefactorswillmakeitmoredifficultforYemensmanypartiestoreturntothenegotiatingtable.In
April2015,UNspecialenvoyJamalBenomar,whohadbrokeredtheGCCsponsoredtransitionin
2001,resignedfromhispost.OuldCheikhAhmed,aUNveteranwhopreviouslycoordinatedthe
Ebolaresponse,wasappointedBenomarssuccessor.
ButwhiletheHouthishaveestablishedtheirdominanceoverSanaaandbeyond,theycannotgovern
Yemenontheirown.WithoutbuyinfromYemensnumerousotherpartiesandfinancialsupport
fromitsGulfneighbors,Yemenfacesfinancialcollapse,protractedcivilconflict,andanescalating
humanitariancrisis.

AdditionalResources
TheInternationalCrisisGroupdiscussesthegroupsatwarinYemenandtheprospectsfor
deescalation.ApreviousreportoffersadeepdiveintotheHouthimovement.
TheNewYorkTimesmapstheSaudiaircampaignandHouthiterritorialgains.
AUNSecurityCouncilpanelassesseddevelopmentsinYemen(PDF)inFebruary2015.
JournalistPeterSalisburydiscusseshowactorsinYemensinternalconflictareinfluencedbythe
SaudiIranian"coldwar."

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Backgrounder:Yemen'sCivilWar,theHouthis,andtheSaudiInterventionCouncilonForeignRelations

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