Finance Modeling Lab

Oxford Financial Modelling LAB
AndreasT. Angelopoulos, developed by Andreas T. Angelopoulos 2006 (version 1) - 12.11.2013 (last update) for the registered students in the Oxford Finance Modlling Lab
REFERENCES & SUGGESTE READINGS:
Leveraged Buyouts. Investment Banking Valuation, Leveraged Buyouts, and Mergers & Acquisitions. Rosenbaum, J and Pearl, J (2009) by Hoboken, New Jersey, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
e Oxford Finance Modlling Lab
Jersey, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Table of Contents
Instructions
1. Finance instruments
1a. Debt instrumenst
Senior debt
Mezzanine
HY bond
RCF Capex
1b. Equity instruments

Shareholder loan
2. Operational & Financial Model

Assumptions
Operational model
Financial Statements
3. Valuation
Comparables
DCF NPV
DCF APV
LBO Simple
LBO Advanced (BS adjustment)
Output
4. Investment analysis (Graphs)
Financial Modelling LAB

Instructions
Guidelines for implementing your working model:
1. Start with the Operational Model sheet and build the projections of each operational segment bas
n Make the necessary assumptions for each operational segment of the Company (US, Internat
n Total the numbers of all operational segments and build the Net Working Capital projections b
2. Move on to the Financial Statements to build the projections for Company's future Income Statem
n You will be using the operational model assumptions calculated in the previous step for some
n Some figures are provided to keep things simple
3. DCF Analysis follows using the NPV and APV methodologies

n Beta analysis is provided in order to calculate the unlevered beta of the Company to be used i
n Build the NPV model following the steps that help you derive the value of the Company
n Build the APV model following the steps that help you derive the value of the Company
n A Comparables Model is also provided
4. The LBO Model presented here is irrelevant and independent from other sheets
n Start with building the Sources & Uses of funds (The capital structure is provided)
n Operational assumptions are also provided
n Debt pricing and schedule terms are provided; you need to build it
n Project the future Financial Statements of the Company based on the operational assumption
Note: Several comments have been provided inside every sheet to help you. If there is something yo
Cells Format:
User Input
BLUE
Linked with other spreadsheets
GREEN
Formulas
BLACK
Cells with black border indicate that their content was initially hard coded and will need to be update
erational segment based on the historical data provided

Company (US, International, CPG)
g Capital projections by forecasting Balance Sheet items days
future Income Statement, Cash Flow Statement and Balance Sheet

revious step for some key items
Company to be used in the NPV method

of the Company
f the Company
provided)
perational assumptions provided (this is similar to the process in step 2 above)
f there is something you don't understand the respective (answer) sheet provides the solution
will need to be updated at a later step
he solution
1. FINANCE INSTRUMENTS
1A. DEBT FINANCE INSTRUMENTS
UMENTS

Finance Instruments - Senior Debt
Step 1 Define the debt term and pricing
Debt Structure
Term (Years)
Amort.
x EBITDA
6
6
6
7
8
Bullet
Balloon
Bullet
Bullet
1.8x
1.4x
1.4x
Bullet
1.2x
10
Bullet
0.4x
15
Bullet
1.2x
2010A
2011E
Senior debt
RCF Facility
CapEx Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated Debt
Mezzanine
PIK Element
Cash Element
HY Bond
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
LIBOR
Cash Interest
Step 2 Define the Senior Debt Repayment Schedule

Base Rates
$ 3M LIBOR forward curve
$ 3y SWAP Rate
% Swaped
Floating Base Rate
1.0284%
1.1235%
50.00%
1.0760%
Term Loan A
Base Rate
Interest rate
Average Life of the facility
Amortisation schedule (% of total facility)
Opening Balance
Principal repayments
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
Term Loan B
Base Rate
Interest rate
5.0%
(343.9)
Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
0.0
Term Loan C
Base Rate
Interest rate
Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
Expand for the answer
0.0
Amount
Spread
750
750
4,500
3,500
3,500
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
Interest rate
3,000
6.0%
6.5%
1,000
8.0%
2,870
14.0%
0.78%
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
1.1897%
2.1835%
3.1046%
3.7966%
4.2812%
4.5268%
1.1566%
1.6535%
2.1141%
2.4601%
2.7024%
2.8252%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
20.0%
30.0%
0.0%
(307.6)
(322.3)
(303.1)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(345.2)
(545.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(969.6)
2018E
2019E
2020E
4.5486%
4.7695%
4.8068%
2.8361%
2.9465%
2.9652%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Finance Instruments - Mezzanine
Debt Structure
Senior debt
RCF Facility
CapEx Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated Debt
Mezzanine
PIK Element
Cash Element
HY Bond
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
LIBOR
Cash Interest
Term
(Years)
Amort.
x EBITDA
6
6
6
7
8
Bullet
Balloon
Bullet
Bullet
1.8x
1.4x
1.4x
Bullet
1.2x
10
Bullet
0.4x
15
Bullet
1.2x
2010A
2011E
Step 2 Define the Mezzanine repayment schedule

Base Rates
$ 3y SWAP Rate
% Swaped
Floating Base Rate
Mezzanine
Base Rate
PIK Element
Cash Element
Amortisation schedule (% of Op. balance+PIK)
Opening Balance
PIK Interest expense
Cash Interest expense
Closing Balance
1.0284%
1.1235%
50.00%
1.0760%
1.08%
6.00%
7.58%
0.0%
3,000.0
0.0
(180.0)
(227.3)
3,180.0
Amount
Spread
750
750
4,500
3,500
3,500
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
5.0%
0.0%
Interest rate
3,000
6.0%
6.5%
1,000
8.0%
2,870
14.0%
0.78%
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
1.1897%
2.1835%
3.1046%
3.7966%
4.2812%
4.5268%
4.5486%
4.7695%
1.1566%
1.6535%
2.1141%
2.4601%
2.7024%
2.8252%
2.8361%
2.9465%
1.16%
6.00%
7.66%
1.65%
6.00%
8.15%
2.11%
6.00%
8.61%
2.46%
6.00%
8.96%
2.70%
6.00%
9.20%
2.83%
6.00%
9.33%
2.84%
6.00%
9.34%
2.95%
6.00%
9.45%
0.0%
3,180.0
0.0
(190.8)
(243.5)
3,370.8
0.0%
3,370.8
0.0
(202.2)
(274.8)
3,573.0
0.0%
3,573.0
0.0
(214.4)
(307.8)
3,787.4
0.0%
3,787.4
0.0
(227.2)
(339.4)
4,014.7
0.0%
4,014.7
0.0
(240.9)
(369.4)
4,255.6
0.0%
4,255.6
0.0
(255.3)
(396.8)
4,510.9
0.0%
4,510.9
0.0
(270.7)
(421.1)
4,781.5
0.0%
4,781.5
5,068.4
(286.9)
(451.7)
2020E
4.8068%
2.9652%
2.97%
6.00%
9.47%
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Finance Instruments - High Yield Bond
Debt Structure
Senior debt
RCF Facility
CapEx Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated Debt
Mezzanine
PIK Element
Cash Element
HY Bond
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
LIBOR
Cash Interest
Term
(Years)
Amort.
x EBITDA
6
6
6
7
8
Bullet
Balloon
Bullet
Bullet
1.8x
1.4x
1.4x
Bullet
1.2x
10
Bullet
0.4x
15
Bullet
1.2x
2010A
2011E
Step 2 Define the HY Bond repayment schedule
HY Bond
Interest rate
Opening Balance
Interest expense
Closing Balance
Amount
Spread
750
750
4,500
3,500
3,500
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
5.0%
0.0%
Interest rate
3,000
6.0%
6.5%
1,000
8.0%
2,870
14.0%
0.78%
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E

Finance Instruments - RCF CAPEX
Debt Structure
Senior debt
RCF Facility
CapEx Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated Debt
Mezzanine
PIK Element
Cash Element
HY Bond
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
LIBOR
Cash Interest
Term
(Years)
Amort.
x EBITDA
6
6
6
7
8
Bullet
Balloon
Bullet
Bullet
1.8x
1.4x
1.4x
Bullet
1.2x
10
Bullet
0.4x
15
Bullet
1.2x
Step 2 Define the RCF and CapEx facilities repayment schedule

Base Rates
2011E

$ 3y SWAP Rate
% Swaped
Floating Base Rate
RCF and CapEx Repayment Schedule
1.0284%
1.1235%
50.00%
1.0760%
2009A
2010A
RCF Facility
Base Rate
Interest rate
Commitment fee
Commitment
Undrawn
Opening Cash Balance on Balance Sheet
Cash Increase/Decrease
Closing balance before RCF
Drawdown/(Repayment)
Minimum closing cash balance
100.0
2011E
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
0.0
Interest expense
Commitment fee on Unused Revolver
CapEx Facility
Base Rate
Interest rate
Commitment fee
Commitment
Undrawn
Repayment (% of total facility)
Opening Balance
Drawdown
Closing Balance
Interest expense
Commitment fee on Unused Capex
0.0
0.0
Amount
Spread
750
750
4,500
3,500
3,500
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
5.0%
0.0%
Interest rate
3,000
6.0%
6.5%
1,000
8.0%
2,870
14.0%
0.78%
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
1.1897%
2.1835%
3.1046%
3.7966%
4.2812%
4.5268%
4.5486%
4.7695%
1.1566%
1.6535%
2.1141%
2.4601%
2.7024%
2.8252%
2.8361%
2.9465%
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
0.0
100.0
150.0
2020E
4.8068%
2.9652%
2020E
1B. EQUITY INSTRUMENTS

Equity Instruments - Shareholder Loan
Debt Structure
Senior debt
RCF Facility
Capex Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated Debt
Mezzanine
- PIK Element
- Cash Element
HY Bond
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
LIBOR
Cash Interest
Term
(Years)
Amort.
x EBITDA
6
6
6
7
8
Bullet
Balloon
Bullet
Bullet
1.8x
1.4x
1.4x
Bullet
1.2x
10
Bullet
0.4x
15
Bullet
1.2x
2010A
2011E
Step 2 Define the Shareholder Loan repayment schedule

Base Rates
$ 3y SWAP Rate
% Swaped
Floating Base Rate
1.0284%
1.1235%
50.00%
1.0760%
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Amount
Spread
750
750
4,500
3,500
3,500
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
5.0%
0.0%
Interest rate
3,000
6.0%
6.5%
1,000
8.0%
2,870
14.0%
0.78%
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
1.1897%
2.1835%
3.1046%
3.7966%
4.2812%
4.5268%
4.5486%
4.7695%
1.1566%
1.6535%
2.1141%
2.4601%
2.7024%
2.8252%
2.8361%
2.9465%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2020E
4.8068%
2.9652%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2. OPERATIONAL & FINANCIAL STA
ANCIAL STATEMENTS (FS) MODEL

Operating Assumptions
Assumptions
n Breakdown of the Company's main Income Statement figures based on its reportable operating segments
n Revenues to grow at a 2010-14 CAGR of c. 4.7% trending to c. 3.4% in later years driven by a 14.2% CAGR of the CPG segment as well as strong growth in other segments
n Gross margins expected to decrease from c. 59% in 2010 to 57% in later years driven by an increase of COGS in the CPG segment
n Overheads to decrease as a % of sales from c. 36.4% to 34%
n EBITDA margins to remain broadly flat c. 23%
n CapEx assumed to be between 4 - 5 % of revenues
n Working Capital assumed to decrease over time leading to a positive cash impact
Note 1: Fiscal year end for Starbucks is end of September

Note 2: For modeling purposes we assumed that the transaction closes in September 2010 and that 2010 Revenues and EBITDA are Expected based on our ssumptions
well as strong growth in other segments
xpected based on our ssumptions

Operational Model
1A
US ($M), FY End Sep-2010
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
6,560.9
6,997.7
6.7%
534.3
15.6%
7,532.0
7.2%
6,572.1
(6.1%)
532.5
(0.3%)
7,104.6
(5.7%)
7,031.8
7.0%
528.6
(0.7%)
7,560.4
6.4%
(2,804.0)
39.9%
(3,206.3)
42.6%
(2,965.7)
41.7%
(2,906.1)
38.4%
4,218.9
60.1%
4,325.7
57.4%
4,138.9
58.3%
4,654.3
61.6%
SG&A
% Sales
(2,872.0)
40.9%
(3,265.2)
43.4%
(2,982.7)
42.0%
(2,985.3)
39.5%
EBITDA
% Sales
1,346.9
19.2%
1,060.5
14.1%
1,156.2
16.3%
1,669.0
22.1%
Depreciation & Amortisation

% Sales
(341.7)
4.9%
(395.4)
5.2%
(378.1)
5.3%
(350.7)
4.6%
Retail Sales
% Growth
Total Specialty Sales:
% Growth
Total Sales
% Growth
COGS
% Sales
Gross profit
% Sales
2A
International ($M), FY End Sep-2010
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
1,437.4
1,774.2
23.4%
329.2
27.2%
2,103.4
24.0%
1,608.0
(9.4%)
312.4
(5.1%)
1,920.4
(8.7%)
1,931.7
20.1%
357.1
14.3%
2,288.8
19.2%
COGS
% Sales
(824.6)
48.6%
(1,054.0)
50.1%
(963.7)
50.2%
(1,078.2)
47.1%
871.6
51.4%
1,049.4
49.9%
956.7
49.8%
1,210.6
52.9%
SG&A
% Sales
(649.7)
(38.3%)
(811.4)
(38.6%)
(734.3)
(38.2%)
(851.0)
(37.2%)
EBITDA
% Sales
221.9
13.1%
238.0
11.3%
222.4
11.6%
359.6
15.7%

% Sales
(84.2)
5.0%
(108.8)
5.2%
(102.5)
5.3%
(108.6)
4.7%
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
747.6
8.0%
747.6
8.0%
749.6
0.3%
749.6
0.3%
707.4
(5.6%)
707.4
(5.6%)
(370.5)
53.5%
(385.0)
51.5%
(395.5)
52.8%
(384.9)
54.4%
Gross profit
% Sales
321.9
46.5%
362.6
48.5%
354.1
47.2%
322.5
45.6%
SG&A
% Sales
(66.4)
9.6%
(77.1)
10.3%
(51.1)
6.8%
(57.4)
8.1%
EBITDA
% Sales
255.5
36.9%
285.5
38.2%
303.0
40.4%
265.1
37.5%
(6.6)
1.0%
(6.3)
0.8%
(5.7)
0.8%
(3.7)
0.5%
CPG ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Retail Sales
% Growth
% Growth
Total Sales
% Growth
COGS
% Sales

% Sales
Total
7,022.9
Retail Sales
% Growth
% Growth
Total Sales
% Growth
Gross profit
% Sales
3A
462.0
Starbucks Corporation ($M), FY End Sep-2010

US
International
CPG
Other
Total Revenues
% Growth
US
International
CPG
COGS
% Sales
Gross profit
% Sales
US
258.8
1,696.2
692.4
692.4
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
7,022.9
1,696.2
692.4
9,411.5
7,532.0
2,103.4
747.6
10,383.0
10.3%
7,104.6
1,920.4
749.6
9,774.6
(5.9%)
7,560.4
2,288.8
707.4
150.8
10,707.4
9.5%
(2,804.0)
(824.6)
(370.5)
(3,999.1)
42.5%
(3,206.3)
(1,054.0)
(385.0)
(4,645.3)
44.7%
(2,965.7)
(963.7)
(395.5)
(4,324.9)
44.2%
(2,906.1)
(1,078.2)
(384.9)
(4,369.2)
40.8%
5,412.4
57.5%
5,737.7
55.3%
5,449.7
55.8%
6,338.2
59.2%
(2,872.0)
(3,265.2)
(2,982.7)
(2,985.3)
2011E
2012E
2013E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2011E
2012E
2013E
International
CPG
SG&A
% Sales
(649.7)
(66.4)
(3,588.0)
(38.1%)
(811.4)
(77.1)
(4,153.7)
(40.0%)
(734.3)
(51.1)
(3,768.1)
(38.5%)
(851.0)
(57.4)
(3,893.7)
(36.4%)
EBITDA
% Sales
1,824.4
19.4%
1,584.0
15.3%
1,681.6
17.2%
2,444.5
22.8%
US
International
CPG
% Sales
(341.7)
(84.2)
(6.6)
(432.5)
4.6%
(395.4)
(108.8)
(6.3)
(510.5)
4.9%
(378.1)
(102.5)
(5.7)
(486.3)
5.0%
(350.7)
(108.6)
(3.7)
(463.0)
4.3%
(1,080.3)
11.5%
(984.5)
9.5%
(445.6)
4.6%
(450.0)
4.2%
(316.2)
(3.4%)
NA
(284.5)
(2.7%)
31.7
(497.7)
(5.1%)
(213.2)
(776.6)
(7.3%)
(278.9)
Current Assets
Cash & Cash Equivalents
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Other Current Assets
281.3
287.9
691.7
148.8
269.8
329.5
692.8
169.2
599.8
271.0
664.9
147.2
1,164.0
302.7
543.3
156.5
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable
Accrued Expenses & Other
Deferred Revenue
390.8
756.8
296.9
324.9
782.7
368.4
267.1
925.0
388.7
282.6
1,082.4
414.1
11.2
63.1
5.8
11.6
54.4
5.9
10.1
56.1
5.5
10.3
45.4
5.3
35.7
29.4
11.5
25.5
27.5
13.0
22.5
34.5
14.5
23.6
36.9
14.1
CapEx
% Sales
Net Working Capital
% Sales
Change
Days
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Accounts Payable
Deferred Revenue
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
CAGR
10A-14E
15E-20E
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
(100.0%)
#DIV/0!
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
(100.0%)
#DIV/0!
(100.0%)
#DIV/0!
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
(100.0%)
#DIV/0!
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

Operational Model
1A
US ($M), FY End Sep-2010
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
6,560.9
6,997.7
6.7%
534.3
15.6%
7,532.0
7.2%
6,572.1
(6.1%)
532.5
(0.3%)
7,104.6
(5.7%)
7,031.8
7.0%
528.6
(0.7%)
7,560.4
6.4%
7,313.1
4.0%
597.3
13.0%
7,910.4
4.6%
7,561.7
3.4%
627.2
5.0%
8,188.9
3.5%
7,864.2
4.0%
652.3
4.0%
8,516.5
4.0%
(2,804.0)
39.9%
(3,206.3)
42.6%
(2,965.7)
41.7%
(2,906.1)
38.4%
(3,052.6)
38.6%
(3,153.2)
38.5%
(3,406.6)
40.0%
4,218.9
60.1%
4,325.7
57.4%
4,138.9
58.3%
4,654.3
61.6%
4,857.8
61.4%
5,035.7
61.5%
5,109.9
60.0%
SG&A
% Sales
(2,872.0)
40.9%
(3,265.2)
43.4%
(2,982.7)
42.0%
(2,985.3)
39.5%
(3,061.3)
38.7%
(3,169.1)
38.7%
(3,065.9)
36.0%
EBITDA
% Sales
1,346.9
19.2%
1,060.5
14.1%
1,156.2
16.3%
1,669.0
22.1%
1,796.5
22.7%
1,866.6
22.8%
2,043.9
24.0%

% Sales
(341.7)
4.9%
(395.4)
5.2%
(378.1)
5.3%
(350.7)
4.6%
(363.9)
4.6%
(368.5)
4.5%
(255.5)
3.0%
Retail Sales
% Growth
% Growth
Total Sales
% Growth
COGS
% Sales
Gross profit
% Sales
2A
International ($M), FY End Sep-2010
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
1,437.4
1,774.2
23.4%
329.2
27.2%
2,103.4
24.0%
1,608.0
(9.4%)
312.4
(5.1%)
1,920.4
(8.7%)
1,931.7
20.1%
357.1
14.3%
2,288.8
19.2%
1,970.3
2.0%
376.0
5.3%
2,346.4
2.5%
2,090.5
6.1%
413.6
10.0%
2,504.2
6.7%
2,216.0
6.0%
438.4
6.0%
2,654.4
6.0%
COGS
% Sales
(824.6)
48.6%
(1,054.0)
50.1%
(963.7)
50.2%
(1,078.2)
47.1%
(1,109.8)
47.3%
(1,184.5)
47.3%
(1,247.6)
47.0%
871.6
51.4%
1,049.4
49.9%
956.7
49.8%
1,210.6
52.9%
1,236.5
52.7%
1,319.7
52.7%
1,406.8
53.0%
SG&A
% Sales
(649.7)
(38.3%)
(811.4)
(38.6%)
(734.3)
(38.2%)
(851.0)
(37.2%)
(861.3)
36.7%
(905.7)
36.2%
(929.0)
35.0%
EBITDA
% Sales
221.9
13.1%
238.0
11.3%
222.4
11.6%
359.6
15.7%
375.3
16.0%
413.9
16.5%
477.8
18.0%

% Sales
(84.2)
5.0%
(108.8)
5.2%
(102.5)
5.3%
(108.6)
4.7%
(115.0)
4.9%
(120.2)
4.8%
(79.6)
3.0%
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
747.6
8.0%
747.6
8.0%
749.6
0.3%
749.6
0.3%
707.4
(5.6%)
707.4
(5.6%)
872.2
23.3%
872.2
23.3%
996.1
14.2%
996.1
14.2%
1,115.6
12.0%
1,115.6
12.0%
(370.5)
53.5%
(385.0)
51.5%
(395.5)
52.8%
(384.9)
54.4%
(471.9)
54.1%
(537.9)
54.0%
(580.1)
52.0%
Gross profit
% Sales
321.9
46.5%
362.6
48.5%
354.1
47.2%
322.5
45.6%
400.4
45.9%
458.2
46.0%
535.5
48.0%
SG&A
% Sales
(66.4)
9.6%
(77.1)
10.3%
(51.1)
6.8%
(57.4)
8.1%
(92.5)
10.6%
(112.6)
11.3%
(145.0)
13.0%
EBITDA
% Sales
255.5
36.9%
285.5
38.2%
303.0
40.4%
265.1
37.5%
307.9
35.3%
345.6
34.7%
390.5
35.0%
(6.6)
1.0%
(6.3)
0.8%
(5.7)
0.8%
(3.7)
0.5%
(5.2)
0.6%
(6.0)
0.6%
(4.5)
0.4%
CPG ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Retail Sales
% Growth
% Growth
Total Sales
% Growth
COGS
% Sales

% Sales
Total
7,022.9
Retail Sales
% Growth
% Growth
Total Sales
% Growth
Gross profit
% Sales
3A
462.0
Starbucks Corporation ($M), FY End Sep-2010

US
International
CPG
Other
Total Revenues
% Growth
US
International
CPG
COGS
% Sales
Gross profit
% Sales
US
258.8
1,696.2
692.4
692.4
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
7,022.9
1,696.2
692.4
9,411.5
7,532.0
2,103.4
747.6
10,383.0
10.3%
7,104.6
1,920.4
749.6
9,774.6
(5.9%)
7,560.4
2,288.8
707.4
150.8
10,707.4
9.5%
7,910.4
2,346.4
872.2
11,129.0
3.9%
8,188.9
2,504.2
996.1
11,689.1
5.0%
8,516.5
2,654.4
1,115.6
12,286.5
5.1%
(2,804.0)
(824.6)
(370.5)
(3,999.1)
42.5%
(3,206.3)
(1,054.0)
(385.0)
(4,645.3)
44.7%
(2,965.7)
(963.7)
(395.5)
(4,324.9)
44.2%
(2,906.1)
(1,078.2)
(384.9)
(4,369.2)
40.8%
(3,052.6)
(1,109.8)
(471.9)
(4,634.3)
41.6%
(3,153.2)
(1,184.5)
(537.9)
(4,875.5)
41.7%
(3,406.6)
(1,247.6)
(580.1)
(5,234.3)
42.6%
5,412.4
57.5%
5,737.7
55.3%
5,449.7
55.8%
6,338.2
59.2%
6,494.7
58.4%
6,813.6
58.3%
7,052.2
57.4%
(2,872.0)
(3,265.2)
(2,982.7)
(2,985.3)
(3,061.3)
(3,169.1)
(3,065.9)
International
CPG
SG&A
% Sales
(649.7)
(66.4)
(3,588.0)
(38.1%)
(811.4)
(77.1)
(4,153.7)
(40.0%)
(734.3)
(51.1)
(3,768.1)
(38.5%)
(851.0)
(57.4)
(3,893.7)
(36.4%)
(861.3)
(92.5)
(4,015.1)
(36.1%)
(905.7)
(112.6)
(4,187.4)
(35.8%)
(929.0)
(145.0)
(4,140.0)
(33.7%)
EBITDA
% Sales
1,824.4
19.4%
1,584.0
15.3%
1,681.6
17.2%
2,444.5
22.8%
2,479.7
22.3%
2,626.2
22.5%
2,912.2
23.7%
US
International
CPG
% Sales
(341.7)
(84.2)
(6.6)
(432.5)
4.6%
(395.4)
(108.8)
(6.3)
(510.5)
4.9%
(378.1)
(102.5)
(5.7)
(486.3)
5.0%
(350.7)
(108.6)
(3.7)
(463.0)
4.3%
(363.9)
(115.0)
(5.2)
(484.1)
4.3%
(368.5)
(120.2)
(6.0)
(494.7)
4.2%
(255.5)
(79.6)
(4.5)
(339.6)
2.8%
(1,080.3)
11.5%
(984.5)
9.5%
(445.6)
4.6%
(450.0)
4.2%
(580.5)
5.2%
(607.8)
5.2%
(614.3)
5.0%
(316.2)
(3.4%)
NA
(284.5)
(2.7%)
31.7
(497.7)
(5.1%)
(213.2)
(776.6)
(7.3%)
(278.9)
(816.2)
(7.3%)
(39.6)
(908.7)
(7.8%)
(92.5)
(1,015.2)
(8.3%)
(106.4)
Current Assets
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
281.3
287.9
691.7
148.8
269.8
329.5
692.8
169.2
599.8
271.0
664.9
147.2
1,164.0
302.7
543.3
156.5
316.7
571.3
161.6
333.1
587.7
169.7
346.7
616.6
178.4
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable
Deferred Revenue
390.8
756.8
296.9
324.9
782.7
368.4
267.1
925.0
388.7
282.6
1,082.4
414.1
304.7
1,128.1
433.0
333.9
1,200.9
464.4
372.9
1,279.1
504.9
11.2
63.1
5.8
11.6
54.4
5.9
10.1
56.1
5.5
10.3
45.4
5.3
10.4
45.0
5.3
10.4
44.0
5.3
10.3
43.0
5.3
35.7
29.4
11.5
25.5
27.5
13.0
22.5
34.5
14.5
23.6
36.9
14.1
24.0
37.0
14.2
25.0
37.5
14.5
26.0
38.0
15.0
CapEx
% Sales
Net Working Capital
% Sales
Change
Days
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Accounts Payable
Deferred Revenue
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
8,178.8
4.0%
678.4
4.0%
8,857.1
4.0%
8,424.1
3.0%
698.7
3.0%
9,122.8
3.0%
8,676.8
3.0%
719.7
3.0%
9,396.5
3.0%
8,937.1
3.0%
741.3
3.0%
9,678.4
3.0%
9,205.3
3.0%
763.5
3.0%
9,968.8
3.0%
9,481.4
3.0%
786.4
3.0%
10,267.8
3.0%
9,765.9
3.0%
810.0
3.0%
10,575.9
3.0%
(3,542.8)
40.0%
(3,649.1)
40.0%
(3,758.6)
40.0%
(3,871.4)
40.0%
(3,987.5)
40.0%
(4,107.1)
40.0%
(4,230.3)
40.0%
5,314.3
60.0%
5,473.7
60.0%
5,637.9
60.0%
5,807.0
60.0%
5,981.3
60.0%
6,160.7
60.0%
6,345.5
60.0%
(3,188.6)
36.0%
(3,375.4)
37.0%
(3,476.7)
37.0%
(3,581.0)
37.0%
(3,688.4)
37.0%
(3,799.1)
37.0%
(3,913.1)
37.0%
2,125.7
24.0%
2,098.3
23.0%
2,161.2
23.0%
2,226.0
23.0%
2,292.8
23.0%
2,361.6
23.0%
2,432.4
23.0%
(265.7)
3.0%
(273.7)
3.0%
(281.9)
3.0%
(290.4)
3.0%
(299.1)
3.0%
(308.0)
3.0%
(317.3)
3.0%
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2,326.8
5.0%
460.4
5.0%
2,787.1
5.0%
2,419.8
4.0%
478.8
4.0%
2,898.6
4.0%
2,516.6
4.0%
497.9
4.0%
3,014.6
4.0%
2,617.3
4.0%
517.9
4.0%
3,135.1
4.0%
2,722.0
4.0%
538.6
4.0%
3,260.5
4.0%
2,830.9
4.0%
560.1
4.0%
3,391.0
4.0%
2,944.1
4.0%
582.5
4.0%
3,526.6
4.0%
(1,309.9)
47.0%
(1,362.3)
47.0%
(1,416.8)
47.0%
(1,473.5)
47.0%
(1,532.5)
47.0%
(1,593.8)
47.0%
(1,657.5)
47.0%
1,477.2
53.0%
1,536.3
53.0%
1,597.7
53.0%
1,661.6
53.0%
1,728.1
53.0%
1,797.2
53.0%
1,869.1
53.0%
(975.5)
35.0%
(1,014.5)
35.0%
(1,055.1)
35.0%
(1,097.3)
35.0%
(1,141.2)
35.0%
(1,186.8)
35.0%
(1,234.3)
35.0%
501.7
18.0%
521.7
18.0%
542.6
18.0%
564.3
18.0%
586.9
18.0%
610.4
18.0%
634.8
18.0%
(69.7)
2.5%
(72.5)
2.5%
(75.4)
2.5%
(78.4)
2.5%
(81.5)
2.5%
(84.8)
2.5%
(88.2)
2.5%
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
1,204.9
8.0%
1,204.9
8.0%
1,277.1
6.0%
1,277.1
6.0%
1,341.0
5.0%
1,341.0
5.0%
1,408.1
5.0%
1,408.1
5.0%
1,478.5
5.0%
1,478.5
5.0%
1,552.4
5.0%
1,552.4
5.0%
1,630.0
5.0%
1,630.0
5.0%
(626.5)
52.0%
(664.1)
52.0%
(697.3)
52.0%
(732.2)
52.0%
(768.8)
52.0%
(807.2)
52.0%
(847.6)
52.0%
578.3
48.0%
613.0
48.0%
643.7
48.0%
675.9
48.0%
709.7
48.0%
745.1
48.0%
782.4
48.0%
(156.6)
13.0%
(166.0)
13.0%
(174.3)
13.0%
(183.0)
13.0%
(192.2)
13.0%
(201.8)
13.0%
(211.9)
13.0%
421.7
35.0%
447.0
35.0%
469.4
35.0%
492.8
35.0%
517.5
35.0%
543.3
35.0%
570.5
35.0%
(4.8)
0.4%
(5.1)
0.4%
(5.4)
0.4%
(5.6)
0.4%
(5.9)
0.4%
(6.2)
0.4%
(6.5)
0.4%
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
8,857.1
2,787.1
1,204.9
12,849.1
4.6%
9,122.8
2,898.6
1,277.1
13,298.6
3.5%
9,396.5
3,014.6
1,341.0
13,752.1
3.4%
9,678.4
3,135.1
1,408.1
14,221.6
3.4%
9,968.8
3,260.5
1,478.5
14,707.8
3.4%
10,267.8
3,391.0
1,552.4
15,211.2
3.4%
(3,542.8)
(1,309.9)
(626.5)
(5,479.3)
42.6%
(3,649.1)
(1,362.3)
(664.1)
(5,675.6)
42.7%
(3,758.6)
(1,416.8)
(697.3)
(5,872.8)
42.7%
(3,871.4)
(1,473.5)
(732.2)
(6,077.1)
42.7%
(3,987.5)
(1,532.5)
(768.8)
(6,288.8)
42.8%
7,369.8
57.4%
7,623.0
57.3%
7,879.3
57.3%
8,144.5
57.3%
(3,188.6)
(3,375.4)
(3,476.7)
(3,581.0)
CAGR
10A-14E
15E-20E
10,575.9
3,526.6
1,630.0
15,732.5
3.4%
e
5.0%
14.2%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
4.7%
3.4%
(4,107.1)
(1,593.8)
(807.2)
(6,508.1)
42.8%
(4,230.3)
(1,657.5)
(847.6)
(6,735.4)
42.8%
5.1%
5.0%
13.0%
5.8%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
3.5%
8,419.0
57.2%
8,703.0
57.2%
8,997.0
57.2%
3.8%
3.4%
(3,688.4)
(3,799.1)
(3,913.1)
1.7%
3.0%
(975.5)
(156.6)
(4,320.7)
(33.6%)
(1,014.5)
(166.0)
(4,556.0)
(34.3%)
(1,055.1)
(174.3)
(4,706.1)
(34.2%)
(1,097.3)
(183.0)
(4,861.4)
(34.2%)
(1,141.2)
(192.2)
(5,021.8)
(34.1%)
(1,186.8)
(201.8)
(5,187.7)
(34.1%)
(1,234.3)
(211.9)
(5,359.3)
(34.1%)
3.5%
28.5%
2.6%
4.0%
5.0%
3.3%
3,049.1
23.7%
3,067.0
23.1%
3,173.2
23.1%
3,283.2
23.1%
3,397.2
23.1%
3,515.3
23.1%
3,637.7
23.1%
5.7%
3.5%
(265.7)
(69.7)
(4.8)
(340.2)
2.6%
(273.7)
(72.5)
(5.1)
(351.3)
2.6%
(281.9)
(75.4)
(5.4)
(362.6)
2.6%
(290.4)
(78.4)
(5.6)
(374.4)
2.6%
(299.1)
(81.5)
(5.9)
(386.5)
2.6%
(308.0)
(84.8)
(6.2)
(399.0)
2.6%
(317.3)
(88.2)
(6.5)
(412.0)
2.6%
(6.7%)
(10.5%)
6.8%
(7.4%)
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
3.2%
(578.2)
4.5%
(531.9)
4.0%
(412.6)
3.0%
(426.6)
3.0%
(441.2)
3.0%
(456.3)
3.0%
(472.0)
3.0%
(1,064.9)
(8.3%)
(49.8)
(1,109.2)
(8.3%)
(44.3)
(1,146.9)
(8.3%)
(37.7)
(1,185.9)
(8.3%)
(39.0)
(1,226.2)
(8.3%)
(40.4)
(1,268.0)
(8.3%)
(41.8)
(1,311.3)
(8.3%)
(43.3)
359.1
645.5
186.6
364.3
668.6
193.1
376.8
691.9
199.7
389.6
715.9
206.5
403.0
740.9
213.6
416.7
766.7
220.9
431.0
793.5
228.4
390.3
1,337.7
528.0
404.3
1,384.5
546.5
418.3
1,431.7
565.2
432.9
1,480.6
584.4
448.0
1,531.2
604.4
463.6
1,583.6
625.1
479.8
1,637.9
646.5
10.2
43.0
5.3
10.0
43.0
5.3
10.0
43.0
5.3
10.0
43.0
5.3
10.0
43.0
5.3
10.0
43.0
5.3
10.0
43.0
5.3
26.0
38.0
15.0
26.0
38.0
15.0
26.0
38.0
15.0
26.0
38.0
15.0
26.0
38.0
15.0
26.0
38.0
15.0
26.0
38.0
15.0

Financial Statement Projections
Step 1 - Define Operational assumptions of the model
(%)
Sales Growth (%)
EBITDA Margin (% Sales)
CapEx (% Sales)
Net Working Capital (% Sales)
DA (% Sales)
Tax (% EBT)
Step 2 Forecast the income statement

$M
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
2009A
2010A
9774.6
1681.6
-486.3
1,195.3
10707.4
2444.5
-463.0
1,981.5
Interest Income
Total Interest Expense
Net Interest
EBT
Tax
Net income
Step 3 - Calculate the cash flow & cash balance

$M
EBITDA
Adjustments:
- Change in Net Working Capital
- Tax
- CapEx
Cash flow before financing (CFBF)
FCF (% EBITDA)
2010A
Interest Expense
Interest Income
Cash flow available for debt repayment (Free cash flow - FCF)
Debt Repayments
Excess Cash
Opening Cash Balance
Cash Increase/(Decrease)
Closing Cash Balance
0.0
Cash balance check
Step 4 -Calculate balance sheet and calculate the future balance sheets
$M
2010A
Current Working Capital

Cash & Equivalents
Net Working Capital
Total Working Capital
Gross Property, Plant & Equipment
6,141.6
Less Accumulated Depreciation
(3,725.1)
Net Property, Plant & Equipment
2,416.5
Other Assets
Total fixed assets
Goodwill
711.8
14,938.3
Total assets
Long term debt
Senior Debt
Mezzanine
7,020.0
3,000.0
Equity
Common Stock
4,020.0
Retained Earnings
Total Stockholders' Equity
Total Liabilities & Equity
Balance check
OK
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
3.9%
22.3%
5.2%
(7.3%)
4.3%
34.5%
5.0%
22.5%
5.2%
(7.8%)
4.2%
34.5%
5.1%
23.7%
5.0%
(8.3%)
2.8%
34.5%
4.6%
23.7%
4.5%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.5%
23.1%
4.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
0.0
(838.4)
(838.4)
(841.4)
(876.7)
(892.3)
(882.5)
(868.7)
(872.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015A
2016A
2017A
(185.0)
(370.0)
(555.0)
(740.0)
(573.2)
(250.0)
(2,809.8)
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015A
2016A
2017A
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
3,180.0
3,370.8
3,573.0
3,787.4
4,014.7
4,255.6
4,510.9
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
2018E
2019E
2020E
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
CAGR
2018E
(691.8)
0.0
2018A
2019E
(738.6)
0.0
2019A
2020E
11E-15E
16E-20E
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
2020A
0.0
(2,068.4)
0.0
NOK
NOK
NOK
2018A
2019A
2020A
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
4,781.5
0.0
0.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
OK
OK
OK

Financial Statement Projections
Step 1 - Define Operational assumptions of the model
(%)
Sales Growth (%)
CapEx (% Sales)
DA (% Sales)
Tax (% EBT)

$M
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
2009A
2010A
9774.6
1681.6
-486.3
1,195.3
10707.4
2444.5
-463.0
1,981.5
Interest Income
Total Interest Expense
Net Interest
EBT
Tax
Net income

$M
EBITDA
Adjustments:
- Tax
- CapEx
FCF (% EBITDA)
Interest Expense
2010A
Interest Income
Debt Repayments
Excess Cash
0.0
Cash balance check
Step 4 -Calculate balance sheet and calculate the future balance sheets
$M
2010A

Cash & Equivalents
0.0
Net Working Capital
(776.6)
(776.6)
6,141.6
(3,725.1)
2,416.5
Other Assets
Total fixed assets
Goodwill
711.8
14,938.3
Total assets
17,290.0
Long term debt

Senior Debt
Mezzanine
10,270.0
3,000.0
Equity
Common Stock
4,020.0
Retained Earnings
Balance check
0.0
4,020.0
17,290.0
OK
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
3.9%
22.3%
5.2%
(7.3%)
4.3%
34.5%
5.0%
22.5%
5.2%
(7.8%)
4.2%
34.5%
5.1%
23.7%
5.0%
(8.3%)
2.8%
34.5%
4.6%
23.7%
4.5%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.5%
23.1%
4.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
11,129.0
2,479.7
(484.1)
1,995.6
11,689.1
2,626.2
(494.7)
2,131.6
12,286.5
2,912.2
(339.6)
2,572.6
12,849.1
3,049.1
(340.2)
2,708.9
13,298.6
3,067.0
(351.3)
2,715.7
13,752.1
3,173.2
(362.6)
2,810.5
14,221.6
3,283.2
(374.4)
2,908.8
2.6
(838.4)
(835.8)
7.5
(841.4)
(834.0)
11.7
(876.7)
(865.0)
15.1
(892.3)
(877.2)
19.0
(882.5)
(863.6)
26.6
(868.7)
(842.1)
24.4
(872.0)
(847.7)
1,159.8
(400.1)
759.6
1,297.6
(447.7)
849.9
1,707.7
(589.1)
1,118.5
1,831.7
(631.9)
1,199.7
1,852.2
(639.0)
1,213.2
1,968.4
(679.1)
1,289.3
2,061.2
(711.1)
1,350.1
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015A
2016A
2017A
2,479.7
2,626.2
2,912.2
3,049.1
3,067.0
3,173.2
3,283.2
39.6
(400.1)
(580.5)
1,538.6
62.1%
92.5
(447.7)
(607.8)
1,663.2
63.3%
106.4
(589.1)
(614.3)
1,815.2
62.3%
49.8
(631.9)
(578.2)
1,888.7
61.9%
44.3
(639.0)
(531.9)
1,940.4
63.3%
37.7
(679.1)
(412.6)
2,119.2
66.8%
39.0
(711.1)
(426.6)
2,184.4
66.5%
(838.4)
(841.4)
(876.7)
(892.3)
(882.5)
(868.7)
(872.0)
2.6
702.8
7.5
829.3
11.7
950.2
15.1
1,011.5
19.0
1,076.8
26.6
1,277.0
24.4
1,336.8
(185.0)
517.8
(370.0)
459.3
(555.0)
395.2
(740.0)
271.5
(573.2)
503.7
(250.0)
1,027.0
(2,809.8)
(1,473.0)
0.0
517.8
517.8
517.8
459.3
977.1
977.1
395.2
1,372.3
1,372.3
271.5
1,643.8
1,643.8
503.7
2,147.5
2,147.5
1,027.0
3,174.5
3,174.5
(1,473.0)
1,701.5
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015A
2016A
2017A
517.8
977.1
1,372.3
1,643.8
2,147.5
3,174.5
1,701.5
(816.2)
(908.7)
(1,015.2)
(1,064.9)
(1,109.2)
(1,146.9)
(1,185.9)
(298.4)
68.4
357.2
578.9
1,038.3
2,027.6
515.6
6,722.1
7,329.9
7,944.3
8,522.5
9,054.4
9,467.0
9,893.6
(4,209.2)
(4,703.9)
(5,043.4)
(5,383.7)
(5,734.9)
(6,097.5)
(6,471.9)
2,512.9
2,626.1
2,900.8
3,138.8
3,319.5
3,369.4
3,421.7
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
17,864.6
18,344.6
18,908.1
19,367.8
20,007.8
21,047.2
19,587.4
9,905.0
3,180.0
10,103.8
3,370.8
10,196.5
3,573.0
10,360.7
3,787.4
10,760.0
4,014.7
11,482.3
4,255.6
9,706.5
4,510.9
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
759.6
849.9
1,118.5
1,199.7
1,213.2
1,289.3
1,350.1
4,779.6
4,869.9
5,138.5
5,219.7
5,233.2
5,309.3
5,370.1
17,864.6
18,344.6
18,908.1
19,367.8
20,007.8
21,047.2
19,587.4
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
2018E
2019E
2020E
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
CAGR
2018E
2019E
2020E
11E-15E
16E-20E
14,707.8
3,397.2
(386.5)
3,010.7
15,211.2
3,515.3
(399.0)
3,116.3
15,732.5
3,637.7
(412.0)
3,225.8
4.6%
5.5%
(7.7%)
8.0%
3.4%
3.5%
3.2%
3.5%
24.6
(691.8)
(667.2)
29.7
(738.6)
(708.9)
37.8
0.0
37.8
2,343.5
(808.5)
1,535.0
2,407.4
(830.6)
1,576.8
3,263.5
(1,125.9)
2,137.6
12.4%
13.5%
12.4%
13.5%
2018A
2019A
2020A
3,397.2
3,515.3
3,637.7
40.4
(808.5)
(441.2)
2,187.8
64.4%
41.8
(830.6)
(456.3)
2,270.2
64.6%
43.3
(1,125.9)
(472.0)
2,083.1
57.3%
(691.8)
(738.6)
0.0
24.6
1,520.6
29.7
1,561.3
37.8
2,120.9
0.0
1,520.6
(2,068.4)
(507.1)
0.0
2,120.9
1,701.5
1,520.6
3,222.1
3,222.1
(507.1)
2,715.0
2,715.0
2,120.9
4,835.8
OK
OK
OK
2018A
2019A
2020A
3,222.1
2,715.0
4,835.8
(1,226.2)
(1,268.0)
(1,311.3)
1,995.9
1,447.0
3,524.6
10,334.9
10,791.2
11,263.2
(6,858.4)
(7,257.4)
(7,669.4)
3,476.5
3,533.8
3,593.8
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
21,122.4
20,630.8
22,768.4
10,785.9
4,781.5
15,034.0
0.0
16,610.8
0.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
1,535.0
1,576.8
2,137.6
5,555.0
5,596.8
6,157.6
21,122.4
20,630.8
22,768.4
OK
OK
OK
4. VALUATION

Comparables Model
Comparables ($M)
Company to valued
Starbucks Corporation
Balance sheet
Assets
6,385.9
Comparable companies
Tier I: Large-Cap
MCDONALD'S CORP
YUM! BRANDS INC
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
Tier II: Mid-Cap
TIM HORTONS INC
DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC
PANERA BREAD CO
Tier III: Small-Cap
DOMINO'S PIZZA INC
WENDY'S CO/THE
CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE
Valuation ratios
Notes
PE ratio
Equity valuation
MCDONALD'S CORP
YUM! BRANDS INC
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
Mean/Median
21.34x
24.52x
0.59x
15.5x
TIM HORTONS INC

DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC
PANERA BREAD CO
Mean/Median
19.81x
15.00x
19.83x
18.2x
DOMINO'S PIZZA INC

WENDY'S CO/THE
CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE
Mean/Median
16.77x
22.91x
15.43x
18.4x
OVERALL
Mean/Median
17.4x
High
Low
24.5x
0.6x
Starbucks Corporation Valuation ($M)

PE ratio
P/Sales
P/EBITDA
P/Book Value
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
* Subtracted Net Debt on EV ratios
Average ratio
17.36x
1.69x
7.98x
6.39x
10.54x
2.11x
Balance sheet
Book Value of Debt
549.4
LTM Financial Statisti

Equity Book Value
3,674.7
LTM Revenues
10,707.4
12,500.4
3,317.0
3.7
14,389.8
1,916.0
10.5
24,074.6
11,343.0
1,835.9
449.8
2,120.7
39.0
1,135.6
1,842.0
595.0
2,463.6
7,113.1
1,542.5
1,451.3
1,357.0
27.2
NA
1,996.2
429.0
1,570.9
2,375.4
1,659.4
P/Sales
Equity valuation
P/EBITDA
Equity valuation
P/Book Value
Equity valuation
4.26x
2.52x
0.06x
2.3x
11.67x
11.76x
0.29x
7.9x
7.12x
14.89x
10.11x
10.7x
3.11x
0.96x
1.74x
1.9x
12.29x
7.23x
10.55x
10.0x
6.75x
3.71x
4.50x
5.0x
0.94x
0.88x
0.77x
0.9x
5.86x
5.84x
6.34x
6.0x
NA
1.05x
2.96x
2.0x
1.7x
8.0x
6.4x
4.3x
0.1x
12.3x
0.3x
###
###
14.9x
1.1x
Starbucks Corporation
indicator
Equity Valuation* ($M)
945.6
10,707.4
2,444.5
3,674.7
2,444.5
10,707.4
16,411.3
18,110.6
19,512.4
23,467.6
25,222.4
21,992.8
LTM Financial Statistics

EBITDA
2,444.5
Net income
945.6
No. of shares (m)

742.6
8,778.4
2,425.0
363.1
4,800.6
1,163.6
178.6
1,010.0
455.9
48.3
623.7
944.6
253.7
387.0
455.6
135.0
154.9
129.0
29.6
251.8
358.9
200.4
87.9
91.5
82.3
56.7
390.7
53.7
EV/EBITDA
EV valuation
EV/Sales
EV valuation
10.25x
10.53x
17.25x
12.7x
3.74x
2.25x
3.41x
3.1x
11.08x
7.91x
11.33x
10.1x
2.80x
1.05x
1.86x
1.9x
9.39x
8.34x
8.80x
8.8x
1.50x
1.26x
1.06x
1.3x
10.5x
2.1x
17.2x
7.9x
3.7x
1.1x
Market data
Share price ($)
30.78
arket data
Market Valuation
Specific Value Driver (m)
-
Market Capitalisation
22,78 bil.
102,455.4
28,529.2
106.2
7,665.3
6,833.8
2,677.5
1,474.2
2,096.0
1,269.8
Market Valuation
Enterprise Value (Equity + Net debt)
3,060.1
Predicted Beta
89,992.6
25,545.5
6,262.4
0.71
0.87
0.91
6,910.4
7,474.2
2,874.7
0.77
0.89
1.05
2,363.4
2,992.8
1,763.4
1
0.99
1.04
3B. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
low (DCF)

Beta Analysis
Company
Company 1
Company 2
Company 3
Company 4
Company 5
Company 6
Company 7
Company 8
Company 9
Company 10
High
Low
Mean
Median
Country
Net Debt
1,088
601
147
183
312
114
95
691
139
1,127
Equity Value
714
1,662
97
226
210
218
137
512
127
949
Gearing
(D / D+E)
EV
1,803
2,263
244
409
522
332
233
1,203
266
2,076
%
60.4%
26.5%
60.2%
44.7%
59.7%
34.3%
40.9%
57.4%
52.1%
54.3%
60.4%
26.5%
49.1%
53.2%
Debt-to-Equity
(D/E)
Effective tax
rate
Levered Beta
%
%
152.4%
33.3%
1.64
36.1%
25.0%
1.00
151.3%
25.0%
1.27
81.0%
25.0%
1.84
148.3%
25.0%
1.77
52.3%
25.0%
0.85
69.3%
28.0%
0.81
134.8%
33.3%
1.90
108.8%
25.0%
1.33
118.7%
33.3%
1.30
152.4%
1.90
36.1%
0.81
105.3%
1.37
113.7%
1.31
Unlevered
beta
0.81
0.79
0.59
1.14
0.84
0.61
0.54
1.00
0.73
0.72
1.14
0.54
0.78
0.76

APV Model
Step 1 - Study the target, define key growth drivers and project the Income Statement
Income Statement ($M)
2010A
2011E
2012E
Revenues
% Growth
COGS
Gross Profit
SG&A
EBITDA
EBIT
Taxes
EBIAT
Step 2 - Calculate the discount rate, used to discount the CF and Terminal Value (TV) to the present using:
Only the unlevered cost of equity (CAPM)
Discount Rate Calculation
Cost of Equity
Risk-free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Unlevered Beta
Cost of Equity (CAPM)
5.0%
8.1%
-
Step 3 - Project the targets Cash Flows ignoring the capital structure and discount them with the cost of equity
FCF ($M)
EBITDA
EBIT
2010A
2011E
2012E
Taxes
EBIAT
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization
Less: Capital Expenditures
Less: Increase in Net Working Capital
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
Discount Factor
Present Value of Cash Flow
Cumulative PV of FCF
Step 4 - Determine the Terminal Value (TV), to quantify the remaining value of the target after the projection period
Choose Method:
Perpetuity Growth Method (PGM - Gordon Method)

Exit Multiple Method (EMM)
Perpetuity Growth Method

Terminal Year FCF (2020E)
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Terminal Value
Discount Factor
PV of Terminal Value
3.0%
Step 5 - Calculate the tax benefits associated with the capital structure
Interest Tax Shield Calculation ($M)
2011E
2012E
Beginning Debt
1,000.0
800.0
Repayment (End of Year)
(200.0)
(200.0)
800.0
600.0
Ending Debt
Cost of Debt
Interest Expense
Interest Tax Shield
Discount Factor
Present Value
Cumulative PV of Tax Shields
2010A
1,000.0
7.0%
Step 6 - Determine the Valuation:

a) the PV of FCF, PV of TV and PV of Tax shields b) Enterprise (EV)
2010A
PV of FCF
PV of TV
PV of Tax Shields
Enterprise Value
Implied Equity Value and Share Price
Enterprise Value
Less: Total Debt
Less: Preferred Securities
Less: Noncontrolling Interest
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents
(932.1)
1,164.0
Implied Equity Value

Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding
764.2
Implied Share Price
Step 7 - Implement a Sensitivity Analysis on the discount rate and Exit Multiple of Terminal Value
WACC
Enterprise Value
0.0
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
5.0x
0
0
0
0
0
6.0x
0
0
0
0
0
Exit Multiple
7.0x
0
0
$0
0
0
WACC

0.0
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
5.0x
0
0
0
0
0
6.0x
0
0
0
0
0
Exit Multiple
7.0x
0
0
$0
0
0
WACC
Implied Share Price

0.0
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
5.0x
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.0x
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Exit Multiple
7.0x
0.00
0.00
$0.00
0.00
WACC
10.6%
0.00
0.00
0.00
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2016E
2017E
2018E
o the present using:
Unlevering Beta
Levered Beta
Debt-to-Equity ratio (D/E)
Tax Rate
Unlevered Beta
em with the cost of equity

2013E
2014E
2015E
et after the projection period
don Method)
1
Exit Multiple Method
Terminal Year EBITDA (2020E)
Exit Multiple
Terminal Value
Discount Factor
7.0x
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
600.0
400.0
200.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(200.0)
(200.0)
(200.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
400.0
200.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Implied EV/EBITDA
Enterprise Value
LTM EBITDA
Implied EV/EBITDA
minal Value
8.0x
0
0
0
0
0
9.0x
0
0
0
0
0
WACC
it Multiple
0.0
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
#DIV/0!
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
PV of Terminal Value as % of Enterprise Va

Exit Multiple
5.0x
6.0x
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.0
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
Implied Enterprise Value / LTM EBITDA

Exit Multiple
5.0x
6.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
9.0x
0
0
0
0
0
WACC
it Multiple
8.0x
0
0
0
0
0
9.0x
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
WACC
it Multiple
8.0x
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00%
0
0
0
0
0
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate

Exit Multiple
2.50%
0
0
0
0
0
WACC
0.00
0.00
10.6%
0.0x
0.0x
CAGR
2019E
2019E
2020E
2020E
10A-15E
16E-20E
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
2019E
2020E
0.0
0.0
(0.0)
(0.0)
0.0
0.0
rpetuity Growth Rate

Exit Multiple
3.00%
0
0
$0
0
0
3.50%
0
0
0
0
0
4.00%
0
0
0
0
0
lue as % of Enterprise Value

Exit Multiple
7.0x
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
8.0x
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
9.0x
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
8.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
9.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
prise Value / LTM EBITDA

Exit Multiple
7.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x

APV Model
Step 1 - Study the target, define key growth drivers and project the Income Statement
Income Statement ($M)
2010A
2011E
2012E
Revenues
% Growth
COGS
11129.0
NA
-4634.3
11689.1
5.0%
-4875.5
Gross Profit
6,494.7
6,813.6
SG&A
-4015.1
-4187.4
EBITDA
2,479.7
2,626.2
-484.1
-494.7
EBIT
1,995.6
2,131.6
Taxes
(688.5)
(735.4)
EBIAT
1,307.1
1,396.2
Step 2 - Calculate the discount rate, used to discount the CF and Terminal Value (TV) to the present using:
Only the unlevered cost of equity (CAPM)
Discount Rate Calculation
Cost of Equity
Risk-free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Unlevered Beta
Cost of Equity (CAPM)
5.0%
8.1%
0.8
11.3%
Step 3 - Project the targets Cash Flows ignoring the capital structure and discount them with the cost of equity
FCF ($M)
2010A
2011E
2012E
EBITDA
2,479.7
2,626.2
(484.1)
(494.7)
EBIT
1,995.6
2,131.6
Taxes
(688.5)
(735.4)
EBIAT
1,307.1
1,396.2
484.1
494.7
(580.5)
(607.83)
39.6
92.5
1,250.3
1,375.5
0.898
0.807
Present Value of Cash Flow
1,123.3
1,110.2
Cumulative PV of FCF
$9,504.6
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization

Less: Capital Expenditures
Less: Increase in Net Working Capital
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
Discount Factor
Step 4 - Determine the Terminal Value (TV), to quantify the remaining value of the target after the projection period
Choose Method:

Exit Multiple Method (EMM)
Perpetuity Growth Method

Terminal Year FCF (2020E)
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Terminal Value
Discount Factor
$2,096.1
3.0%
$25,987.5
0.34
$8,902.4
Step 5 - Calculate the tax benefits associated with the capital structure
Interest Tax Shield Calculation ($M)
2011E
2012E
Beginning Debt
1,000.0
800.0
Repayment (End of Year)
(200.0)
(200.0)
800.0
600.0
(56.0)
(42.0)
Interest Tax Shield
19.3
14.5
Discount Factor
0.935
0.873
Present Value
18.1
12.7
Cumulative PV of Tax Shields
$42.3
Ending Debt
Cost of Debt
Interest Expense
2010A
1,000.0
7.0%
Step 6 - Determine the Valuation:

a) the PV of FCF, PV of TV and PV of Tax shields b) Enterprise (EV)
2010A
9504.6
8902.4
42.3
$18,449.2
PV of FCF
PV of TV
PV of Tax Shields
Enterprise Value
Implied Equity Value and Share Price
Enterprise Value
Less: Total Debt
Less: Preferred Securities
Less: Noncontrolling Interest
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents
$18,449.2
(932.1)
1,164.0
$18,681.1
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding
764.2
Implied Share Price
$24.4
Step 7 - Implement a Sensitivity Analysis on the discount rate and Exit Multiple of Terminal Value
WACC
Enterprise Value
18,449.2
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
5.0x
27,738
25,399
23,415
21,712
20,235
6.0x
27,738
25,399
23,415
21,712
20,235
Exit Multiple
7.0x
27,738
25,399
$23,415
21,712
20,235
WACC

18,681.1
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
5.0x
27,970
25,630
23,647
21,944
20,467
6.0x
27,970
25,630
23,647
21,944
20,467
Exit Multiple
7.0x
27,970
25,630
$23,647
21,944
20,467
WACC
Implied Share Price

24.4
8.6%
9.1%
5.0x
36.60
33.54
6.0x
36.60
33.54
Exit Multiple
7.0x
36.60
33.54
WACC
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
30.94
28.72
26.78
30.94
28.72
26.78
$30.94
28.72
26.78
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
12286.5
5.1%
-5234.3
12849.1
4.6%
-5479.3
13298.6
3.5%
-5675.6
13752.1
3.4%
-5872.8
14221.6
3.4%
-6077.1
14707.8
3.4%
-6288.8
7,052.2
7,369.8
7,623.0
7,879.3
8,144.5
8,419.0
-4140.0
-4320.7
-4556.0
-4706.1
-4861.4
-5021.8
2,912.2
3,049.1
3,067.0
3,173.2
3,283.2
3,397.2
-339.6
-340.2
-351.3
-362.6
-374.4
-386.5
2,572.6
2,708.9
2,715.7
2,810.5
2,908.8
3,010.7
(887.6)
(934.6)
(936.9)
(969.6)
(1,003.5)
(1,038.7)
1,685.1
1,774.3
1,778.8
1,840.9
1,905.3
1,972.0
o the present using:
Unlevering Beta
Levered Beta
0.84
11.1%
34.5%
0.78
Debt-to-Equity ratio (D/E)

Tax Rate
Unlevered Beta
em with the cost of equity

2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2,912.2
3,049.1
3,067.0
3,173.2
3,283.2
3,397.2
(339.6)
(340.2)
(351.3)
(362.6)
(374.4)
(386.5)
2,572.6
2,708.9
2,715.7
2,810.5
2,908.8
3,010.7
(887.6)
(934.6)
(936.9)
(969.6)
(1,003.5)
(1,038.7)
1,685.1
1,774.3
1,778.8
1,840.9
1,905.3
1,972.0
339.6
340.2
351.3
362.6
374.4
386.5
(614.32)
(578.21)
(531.94)
(412.56)
(426.65)
(441.23)
106.4
49.8
44.3
37.7
39.0
40.4
1,516.8
1,586.1
1,642.5
1,828.6
1,892.0
1,957.6
0.725
0.651
0.585
0.526
0.472
0.424
1,099.9
1,033.3
961.3
961.5
893.8
830.8
et after the projection period
don Method)
1
Exit Multiple Method
Terminal Year EBITDA (2020E)
Exit Multiple
Terminal Value
Discount Factor
$3,637.7
7.0x
$25,464.2
0.34
$8,723.1
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
600.0
400.0
200.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(200.0)
(200.0)
(200.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
400.0
200.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(28.0)
(14.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
9.7
4.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.816
0.763
0.713
0.666
0.623
0.582
7.9
3.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Implied EV/EBITDA
Enterprise Value
LTM EBITDA
$18,449.2
$2,444.5
Implied EV/EBITDA
7.5x
minal Value
8.0x
27,738
25,399
23,415
21,712
20,235
9.0x
27,738
25,399
23,415
21,712
20,235
WACC
it Multiple
18,449.2
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
0.5
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
PV of Terminal Value as % of Enterprise Va

Exit Multiple
5.0x
6.0x
28.7%
34.5%
30.0%
36.0%
31.1%
37.3%
32.0%
38.4%
32.8%
39.4%
7.5
8.6%
9.1%
Implied Enterprise Value / LTM EBITDA

Exit Multiple
5.0x
6.0x
11.3x
11.3x
10.4x
10.4x
9.0x
27,970
25,630
23,647
21,944
20,467
WACC
it Multiple
8.0x
27,970
25,630
23,647
21,944
20,467
9.0x
36.60
33.54
WACC
it Multiple
8.0x
36.60
33.54
2.00%
25,039
23,188
21,584
20,179
18,940
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate

Exit Multiple
2.50%
26,278
24,210
22,435
20,895
19,547
30.94
28.72
26.78
WACC
30.94
28.72
26.78
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
9.6x
8.9x
8.3x
9.6x
8.9x
8.3x
CAGR
2019E
2020E
10A-15E
16E-20E
15211.2
3.4%
-6508.1
15732.5
3.4%
-6735.4
4.6%
3.4%
8,703.0
8,997.0
4.1%
3.4%
-5187.7
-5359.3
3,515.3
3,637.7
5.5%
3.5%
-399.0
-412.0
3,116.3
3,225.8
8.0%
3.5%
(1,075.1)
(1,112.9)
2,041.2
2,112.9
8.0%
3.5%
2019E
2020E
3,515.3
3,637.7
(399.0)
(412.0)
3,116.3
3,225.8
(1,075.1)
(1,112.9)
2,041.2
2,112.9
399.0
412.0
(456.34)
(471.97)
41.8
43.3
2,025.6
2,096.1
0.381
0.343
772.4
718.1
2019E
2020E
0.0
0.0
(0.0)
(0.0)
0.0
0.0
(0.0)
(0.0)
0.0
0.0
0.544
0.508
0.0
0.0
rpetuity Growth Rate

Exit Multiple
3.00%
27,738
25,399
$23,415
21,712
20,235
3.50%
29,484
26,800
24,556
22,653
21,019
4.00%
31,611
28,475
25,900
23,748
21,922
lue as % of Enterprise Value

Exit Multiple
7.0x
40.2%
42.0%
43.5%
44.8%
45.9%
8.0x
46.0%
48.0%
49.7%
51.2%
52.5%
9.0x
51.7%
54.0%
55.9%
57.6%
59.1%
8.0x
11.3x
10.4x
9.0x
11.3x
10.4x
prise Value / LTM EBITDA

Exit Multiple
7.0x
11.3x
10.4x
9.6x
8.9x
8.3x
9.6x
8.9x
8.3x
9.6x
8.9x
8.3x
4C. LBO
x Step 1 - Determine the Sources and Uses of funds

Sources of Funds
x EBITDA
Senior debt
Mezzanine
Total debt
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
40.00%
15.00%
#DIV/0!
Equity
Total Equity
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
45.00%
#DIV/0!
Total sources
S&U check
0.0
OK
#DIV/0!
x Step 2 Define the assumptions of the model

(%)
2009A
2010A
Sales Growth (%)

DA (% Sales)
Change in Working Capital (% Sales)
CapEx (% Sales)
Tax (% EBT)
Cash Sweep (% of Excess Cash)
2011E
2012E
16%
32%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
16%
32%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
x Step 3 Define the debt schedule and pricing

Debt Structure
Term (Years)
Senior debt
Mezzanine
PIK Element
Cash Element
LIBOR
Debt Repayment Schedule
Senior debt
Interest rate
Fixed charges cover
Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
5
7
2009A
2010A
Total Senior debt

Total debt
2012E
7.55%
7.55%
10%
15%
0.0
0.0
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
0%
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mezzanine
Interest rate - PIK
Interest rate - cash
Opening Balance
Interest expense - PIK
Interest expense - cash
Closing Balance
2011E
0.0
x Step 4 Forecast the Income Statement

M
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation&Amortisation
EBIT
2009A
2010A
627.4
188.2
769.0
230.7
65.1
76.4
Interest
Senior debt
Mezzanine PIK
Mezzanine Cash
Total Cash interest (Senior debt + Mezzanine cash)
Total Interest (Cash interest + Mezzanine PIK)
Interest check
EBT
Tax
Net income
2011E
2012E
OK
OK
0.0
0.0
2011E
2012E
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
x Step 5 - Calculate the cash flow & cash balance

M
EBITDA
Adjustments:
- Change in Working Capital
- Tax
- CapEx
FCF (% EBITDA)
2009A
2010A

Debt Repayments
Excess Cash
Cash Sweep
Cash balance check
0.0
NOK
NOK
x Step 6 Calculate the credit statistics

M
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
20.0%
20.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
20.0%
20.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
20.0%
20.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
20.0%
20.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
1.0x
#DIV/0!
1.0x
#DIV/0!
EBITDA
Net Senior debt
Net Total debt
CapEx
Leverage ratios (maximum)
1. Net Senior debt/EBITDA
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
2. Net Total debt/EBITDA
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
Interest cover ratios (minimum)
1. EBITDA/Cash interest
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
2. (EBITDA-Capex)/Cash interest
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
Cash cover (minimum)
CFBF/(Cash interest+Debt Repayment)*
Covenant
Headroom
*Also known as fixed charges cover
x Step 7 Calculate the IRR and sensitivity analysis
Returns Analysis - Sensitivity exit year vs exit multiple
Year of Exit
EBITDA
Total debt
Closing cash position
2014
2015
2016
2014
Proceeds to Equity
2015
2016
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
EBITDA Exit Multiple

5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
Uses
EBITDA (07)
Multiple
6.0x
Enterprise value
Fees (%)
5.00%
Total Uses
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
16%
33%
3%
3%
3%
24%
75%
10%
34%
3%
3%
3%
24%
75%
7%
35%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
5%
35%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
5%
35%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
Amort.
Balloon
Bullet
x EBITDA
Amount
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
Margin
Interest rate
3.25%
7.55%
4.00%
5.00%
8.30%
4.30%
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
7.55%
7.55%
7.55%
7.55%
7.55%
20%
25%
30%
0%
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
22.5%
22.5%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
22.5%
22.5%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
22.5%
22.5%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
22.5%
22.5%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
1.0x
#DIV/0!
1.0x
#DIV/0!
1.0x
#DIV/0!
1.0x
#DIV/0!
0.9x
#DIV/0!
Total equity at entry
2014
IRR
2015
2016
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
x Step 1 - Determine the Sources and Uses of funds

Sources of Funds
x EBITDA
Senior debt
Mezzanine
Total debt
581.3
218.0
799.3
2.5x
0.9x
3.5x
40.00%
15.00%
55.00%
Equity
Total Equity
654.0
654.0
2.8x
2.8x
45.00%
45.00%
Total sources
S&U check
1,453.3
OK
100.00%
x Step 2 Define the assumptions of the model

(%)
2009A
2010A
Sales Growth (%)

DA (% Sales)
Change in Working Capital (% Sales)
CapEx (% Sales)
Tax (% EBT)
2011E
2012E
16%
32%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
16%
32%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
x Step 3 Define the debt schedule and pricing

Debt Structure
Term (Years)
Senior debt
Mezzanine
PIK Element
Cash Element
LIBOR
Debt Repayment Schedule
Senior debt
Interest rate
Fixed charges cover
Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
5
7
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
581.3
7.55%
1.0x
10%
581.3
(58.1)
(37.0)
(43.9)
486.2
7.55%
1.0x
15%
486.2
(87.2)
(37.1)
(36.7)
361.8
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
0%
218.0
0.0
(10.9)
(18.1)
228.9
0%
228.9
0.0
(11.4)
(19.0)
240.3
486.2
715.1
361.8
602.2
Mezzanine
Interest rate - PIK
Interest rate - cash
Opening Balance
Interest expense - PIK
Interest expense - cash
Closing Balance
Total Senior debt
Total debt
218.0
x Step 4 Forecast the Income Statement

M
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation&Amortisation
EBIT
2009A
2010A
627.4
188.2
769.0
230.7
65.1
76.4
Interest
Senior debt
Mezzanine PIK
Mezzanine Cash
Total Interest (Cash interest + Mezzanine PIK)
Interest check
EBT
Tax
Net income
2011E
2012E
892.0
285.4
(26.8)
258.7
1,034.7
331.1
(31.0)
300.1
(43.9)
(10.9)
(18.1)
(62.0)
(72.9)
OK
185.8
(44.6)
141.2
(36.7)
(11.4)
(19.0)
(55.7)
(67.2)
OK
232.9
(55.9)
177.0
2011E
2012E
x Step 5 - Calculate the cash flow & cash balance

M
2009A
2010A
EBITDA
Adjustments:
- Change in Working Capital
- Tax
- CapEx
Cash flow before financing
FCF (% EBITDA)
285.4
331.1
(35.7)
(44.6)
(35.7)
169.5
59.4%
(41.4)
(55.9)
(41.4)
192.4
58.1%

(62.0)
107.5
(55.7)
136.7
Debt Repayments
Excess Cash
Cash Sweep
(58.1)
49.4
(37.0)
(87.2)
49.5
(37.1)

Cash balance check
0.0
12.3
12.3
OK
12.3
12.4
24.7
OK
x Step 6 Calculate the credit statistics

M
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
EBITDA
Net Senior debt
Net Total debt
CapEx
285.4
473.8
702.7
(62.0)
(35.7)
331.1
337.1
577.5
(55.7)
(41.4)

Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
1.7x
20.0%
228.4
2.08x
2.10x
21.0%
1.0x
20.0%
264.9
1.27x
1.25x
18.6%

Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
2.5x
20.0%
228.4
3.08x
3.10x
20.6%
1.7x
20.0%
264.9
2.18x
2.20x
20.7%

Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
4.6x
20.0%
228.4
3.68x
3.70x
19.7%
5.9x
20.0%
264.9
4.76x
4.75x
20.1%
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
4.0x
20.0%
228.4
3.11x
3.10x
23.1%
5.2x
20.0%
264.9
4.01x
4.00x
23.1%

Covenant
Headroom
1.4x
1.3x
1.0x
29.1%
1.0x
25.7%

x Step 7 Calculate the IRR and sensitivity analysis
Year of Exit
EBITDA
Total debt
Closing cash position
2014
448.9
265.0
115.8
2015
494.5
278.2
375.2
2016
519.2
292.1
647.6
2014
Proceeds to Equity
2015
2016
2,095.3
2,544.2
2,993.1
2,569.2
3,063.7
3,558.1
2,951.3
3,470.5
3,989.7

5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
Uses
EBITDA (07)
Multiple
230.7
6.0x
Enterprise value
Fees (%)
5.00%
Total Uses
1,384.1
69.2
1,453.3
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
16%
33%
3%
3%
3%
24%
75%
10%
34%
3%
3%
3%
24%
75%
7%
35%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
5%
35%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
5%
35%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
Amort.
Balloon
Bullet
x EBITDA
2.5x
0.9x
Amount
581.3
218.0
Margin
Interest rate
3.25%
7.55%
4.00%
5.00%
8.30%
4.30%
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
7.55%
1.0x
20%
361.8
(116.3)
(66.3)
(27.3)
179.3
7.55%
1.0x
25%
179.3
(145.3)
(34.0)
(13.5)
0.0
7.55%
1.0x
30%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.55%
1.0x
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.55%
0.9x
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
0%
240.3
0.0
(12.0)
(19.9)
252.4
0%
252.4
0.0
(12.6)
(20.9)
265.0
0%
265.0
0.0
(13.2)
(22.0)
278.2
0%
278.2
0.0
(13.9)
(23.1)
292.1
100%
292.1
(306.8)
(14.6)
(24.2)
0.0
179.3
431.7
0.0
265.0
0.0
278.2
0.0
292.1
0.0
0.0
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
1,200.3
396.1
(36.0)
360.1
1,320.3
448.9
(39.6)
409.3
1,412.7
494.5
(42.4)
452.1
1,483.4
519.2
(44.5)
474.7
1,557.5
545.1
(46.7)
498.4
(27.3)
(12.0)
(19.9)
(47.3)
(59.3)
OK
300.8
(72.2)
228.6
(13.5)
(12.6)
(20.9)
(34.5)
(47.1)
OK
362.2
(86.9)
275.3
0.0
(13.2)
(22.0)
(22.0)
(35.2)
OK
416.8
(100.0)
316.8
0.0
(13.9)
(23.1)
(23.1)
(37.0)
OK
437.7
(105.0)
332.6
0.0
(14.6)
(24.2)
(24.2)
(38.9)
OK
459.6
(110.3)
349.3
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
396.1
448.9
494.5
519.2
545.1
(36.0)
(72.2)
(36.0)
251.9
63.6%
(39.6)
(86.9)
(39.6)
282.8
63.0%
(56.5)
(100.0)
(56.5)
281.4
56.9%
(59.3)
(105.0)
(59.3)
295.5
56.9%
(62.3)
(110.3)
(62.3)
310.2
56.9%
(47.3)
204.6
(34.5)
248.3
(22.0)
259.4
(23.1)
272.4
(24.2)
286.0
(116.3)
88.3
(66.3)
(145.3)
102.9
(34.0)
0.0
259.4
0.0
0.0
272.4
0.0
(306.8)
(20.8)
0.0
24.7
22.1
46.8
OK
46.8
69.0
115.8
OK
115.8
259.4
375.2
OK
375.2
272.4
647.6
OK
647.6
(20.8)
626.8
OK
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
396.1
132.5
384.9
(47.3)
(36.0)
448.9
(115.8)
149.2
(34.5)
(39.6)
494.5
(375.2)
(97.0)
(22.0)
(56.5)
519.2
(647.6)
(355.4)
(23.1)
(59.3)
545.1
(626.8)
(626.8)
(24.2)
(62.3)
0.3x
22.5%
307.0
0.43x
0.45x
25.7%
(0.3x)
22.5%
347.9
(0.33x)
(0.35x)
26.3%
(0.8x)
25.0%
370.8
(1.01x)
(1.00x)
24.1%
(1.2x)
25.0%
389.4
(1.66x)
(1.65x)
24.4%
(1.1x)
25.0%
408.9
(1.53x)
(1.55x)
25.8%
1.0x
22.5%
307.0
1.25x
1.25x
22.3%
0.3x
22.5%
347.9
0.43x
0.45x
26.1%
(0.2x)
25.0%
370.8
(0.26x)
(0.25x)
21.6%
(0.7x)
25.0%
389.4
(0.91x)
(0.90x)
23.9%
(1.1x)
25.0%
408.9
(1.53x)
(1.55x)
25.8%
8.4x
22.5%
307.0
6.49x
6.50x
22.4%
13.0x
22.5%
347.9
10.09x
10.10x
22.4%
22.5x
25.0%
370.8
16.86x
16.85x
25.1%
22.5x
25.0%
389.4
16.86x
16.85x
25.1%
22.5x
25.0%
408.9
16.86x
16.85x
25.1%
7.6x
22.5%
307.0
5.73x
5.75x
24.5%
11.9x
22.5%
347.9
8.94x
8.95x
24.6%
19.9x
25.0%
370.8
14.29x
14.30x
28.2%
19.9x
25.0%
389.4
14.29x
14.30x
28.2%
19.9x
25.0%
408.9
14.29x
14.30x
28.2%
1.5x
1.6x
12.8x
12.8x
0.9x
1.0x
35.1%
1.0x
36.4%
1.0x
92.2%
1.0x
92.2%
0.9x
4.0%
Total equity at entry
654.0
2014
IRR
2015
2016
33.8%
40.4%
46.3%
31.5%
36.2%
40.3%
28.5%
32.1%
35.2%

Balance Sheet Simplification
Initial form of the Balance sheet
Closing Balance Sheet*
Adaptation of the Balance sheet

Last fiscal
year
Current Assets
Short-Term Investments
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Deferred Income Taxes, Net
Other current assets
Total Current Assets
1,164.0
285.7
302.7
543.3
304.2
156.5
2,756.4
Fixed (non-current) Assets

Gross PPE
Accumulated Depreciation
Net PPE
6,141.6
(3,725.1)
2,416.5
Other Long term assets

Total Fixed Assets
Goodwill and other
533.3
679.7
Total Assets
6,385.9
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable
Deferred Revenue
282.6
1,082.4
414.1
Total Current Liabilities
1,779.1
Long Term debt

Other Long Term Liabilities
Closing Balance Sheet

Current Assets
Current Liabilities
Working Capital
Final balance sheet (before adjustments)

Last fiscal
year
2,756.4
(1,779.1)
977.3
Closing Balance Sheet

Working Capital
Net working Capital

Gross PPE
Net PPE
Total Fixed Assets
Goodwill
Total Assets
Long Term debt
6,141.6
(3,725.1)
2,416.5
533.3
679.7
4,606.8
932.1

Gross PPE
Net PPE
Total Fixed Assets
Goodwill
Total Assets
Long Term debt
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Mezzanine
Existing debt (to be refinanced)
549.4
382.7
Last fiscal
year
1,753.9
(776.6)
6,141.6
(3,725.1)
2,416.5
533.3
679.7
4,606.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
932.1
Total Liabilities
2,711.2
Equity
Common stock
Retained Earnings
146.3
3,528.4
Equity
Common stock
Retained Earnings
146.3
3,528.4
Equity
Common stock
Retained Earnings
146.3
3,528.4
6,385.9
4,606.8
4,606.8
* Note: Balance Sheet as of September 2010
Step 1 - Determine the Sources and Uses of funds
Pro Forma Capitalisation
Sources of Funds
$M
x EBITDA
3,700.0
3,700.0
0.0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
3,000.0
10,400.0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Shareholder loan
Ordinary Equity
From fund
Sweet Equity (from management)
-10,400.0
0.0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Split to mng
#DIV/0!
Total Institutional Equity

Total Ordinary equity
Total Sweet Equity
Total Equity
-10,400.0
0.0
0.0
-10,400.0
Senior debt
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated debt
Mezzanine
Total debt
Total sources
S&U check
Capital Structure Selected

Uses
$M
EBITDA
Multiple
7.0x
Post Crisis Bank and Mezz

Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Mezzanine
RCF
Capex
3,700.0
3,700.0
0.0
3,000.0
750.0
750.0
Enterprise Value
Equity acquisition cost
Ref. existing Net debt
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Fees
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Total Uses
1.50%
178.5
OK
Step 2 Define the operational assumptions of the model

(%)
Case
Base Case
Stress Case
Base Case
1
2
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
Sales Growth (%)

Capex (% Sales)
DA (% Sales)
Tax (% EBT)
Shareholder loan PIK tax deductibility (%)
Sales Growth (%)
Base Case
Stress Case
Pre crisis adj.
10.0%
10.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
1.0%

Base Case
Stress Case
Pre crisis adj.
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
Capex (% Sales)
Base Case
Stress Case
Pre crisis adj.
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
Interest rate

Debt Structure
Senior debt
RCF Facility
Capex Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated debt
Mezzanine
PIK Element
Cash Element
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
LIBOR
Cash Interest
Term (Years)
Amort.
x EBITDA
Amount
Spread
Bullet
Balloon
Bullet
Bullet
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
750.0
750.0
3,700.0
3,700.0
0.0
4.50%
4.50%
4.50%
5.00%
0.00%
Bullet
#DIV/0!
3,000.0
15
Bullet
#DIV/0!
-10,400.0
4.50%
4.50%
4.50%
5.00%
0.00%
6.00%
6.00%
6.50%
6.50%
14.00%
-0.25%
Base Rates
$ 3m LIBOR forward curve
$ 3yr SWAP Rate
% Swaped
Floating Base Rate
Fixed Base Rate
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
50.00%
1
2
Step 4 Define the senior debt repayment schedule

Senior Debt Repayment Schedule
RCF Facility
Base Rate
Interest rate
Commitment fee
2009A
1
2010A
Commitment
Undrawn
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
Interest expense
Capex Facility
Base Rate
Interest rate
Commitment fee
Commitment
Undrawn
Opening Balance
Draw down
Closing Balance
Interest expense
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Term Loan A
Base Rate
Interest rate
Fixed Charges Cover

Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
Term Loan B
Base Rate
Interest rate
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
14.00%
14.00%
14.00%
14.00%
14.00%
14.00%
14.00%
14.00%
14.00%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
Term Loan C
Base Rate
Interest rate
0.00%

Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
Step 5 Define the Mezzanine/Unsecured Bond and Shareholder Loan repayment schedule
Mezzanine and SH Rep. Schedule
Mezzanine
Base Rate
PIK Element
Cash Element
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
Total Senior debt
Total debt (SHL not included)
2009A
1
2010A

$M
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Adj.
2010PF
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
Interest Income
Interest expense
Senior debt (TLa, TLb, TLc or Senior Secured Bond)
RCF Facility
Capex Facility
Mezzanine PIK
Mezzanine Cash
Shareholder loan PIK
Total Cash interest (Sen. debt + RCF + Capex + Mezz. cash)
Total Interest (Cash Interest + Mezz. PIK + SHL PIK)
Net Interest
EBT
Taxable income
Tax
Net income
$M
2009A
2010A
EBITDA
Adjustments:
- Tax
- Capex
+ Facility funded capex
FCF (% EBITDA)
Interest Income
Cash flow available for debt repayment (Free Cash Flow - FCF)
Debt Repayments
Excess Cash
Cash Sweep
RCF Drawdown/Repayment
Cash balance check
Step 8 - Calculate the sequential cash sweep
$M
2010A
Term Loan A
Cash Sweep available
Outstanding debt before sweep
Effective sweep to Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Effective sweep to Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Effective sweep to Term Loan C
Apply CS
1.0
Step 9 - Input the closing balance sheet and make adjustments

$M
2010A

Cash & Equivalents
Net Working Capital
Other Long Term Assets
Total fixed assets
Goodwill
Fees
Total assets
Long term debt
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Mezzanine
Equity
Shareholder loan
Common Stock
Retained Earnings
Total Liabilities&Equity
Balance check
0.0
OK
OK
OK
2011E
2012E
Step 10 - Link the pro-forma balance sheet and calculate the future balance sheets
$M
Cash & Equivalents
Net Working Capital
Other Assets
Total fixed assets
Goodwill
2010PF
Total assets
Long term debt
RCF Facility
Capex Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Mezzanine
Equity
Shareholder loan
Common Stock
Retained Earnings
Balance check
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
Step 11 Calculate the credit statistics

$M
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
20.0%
20.0%
22.5%
22.5%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
20.0%
20.0%
22.5%
22.5%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
20.0%
20.0%
22.5%
22.5%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
20.0%
20.0%
22.5%
22.5%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
1.00x
-
1.00x
-
1.00x
-
1.00x
-
1.00x
-
1.00x
-
1.00x
-
1.00x
-
1.00x
-
EBITDA
Net Senior debt
Net Total debt
Net Cash interest (RCF+Capex+Sen.debt+Mezz.Cash-Int.Income)
Capex
% Debt / Total Capitalization

Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
Step 12 Calculate the IRR and sensitivity analysis
Institutional Equity at Entry
Ordinary equity split (to fund)
EBITDA
Total debt (excluding SHL)
Closing Cash position
SHL
-1
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
6.0x
(EV-Net debt)
(EV-Net debt-SHL)
(take into account sweet equity split)
(add back the SHL)
Entry year
Exit year (middle range)
#DIV/0!
Base Case
0
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
7.0x
2010
Stress case
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
-1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.0x
6.0x
7.0x
1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.0x
Proceeds to equity
Proceeds to equity
Proceeds to ordinary equity
Proceeds to institutional equity
Total proceeds to fund
1
2
3
4
2020E
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
1.0%
3.0%
(1.0%)
2020E
0.0000%
0.0000%
2020E
0.00%
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.00%
-
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.00%
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.00%
0.0%
0.0
2020E
0.00%
0.0%
0.0
14.00%
0.0
2020E
0.0
2020E
#DIV/0!
NOK
2020E
0.0
2020E
OK
2020E
#DIV/0!
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
25.0%
0.00x
-
25.0%
0.00x
-
1.00x
-
Step 1 - Determine the Sources and Uses of funds
Pro Forma Capitalisation
Sources of Funds
$M
x EBITDA
Capital Structure Selected
Uses
$M
Senior debt
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated debt
Mezzanine
Total debt
EBITDA
Multiple
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
1.8x
1.6x
1.6x
20.22%
17.97%
17.97%
3,000.0
15,500.0
1.2x
6.3x
13.48%
69.65%
Shareholder loan
Ordinary Equity
From fund
Sweet Equity (from management)
2,735.5
4,020.0
4,000.0
20.0
1.1x
1.6x
12.29%
18.06%
Split to mng
0.50%
Total Institutional Equity

Total Ordinary equity
Total Sweet Equity
Total Equity
6,735.5
4,020.0
20.0
6,755.5
2.8x
30.35%
Fees
Total sources
S&U check
22,255.5
OK
9.1
100.00%
Total Uses
Base Case
1
2
Pre Crisis Bank and Mezz
2,444.5
9.0x
Enterprise Value
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Mezzanine
RCF
Capex
22,000.5
Equity acquisition cost

Ref. existing Net debt
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
750.0
750.0
22,822.3
(821.8)
1.50%
255.0
22,255.5
Step 2 Define the operational assumptions of the model

(%)
Case
Base Case
Stress Case
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
13.9%
25.3%
4.2%
(7.3%)
4.3%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
15.0%
25.5%
4.2%
(7.8%)
4.2%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
11.1%
26.7%
4.0%
(8.3%)
2.8%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
10.6%
26.7%
3.5%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
9.5%
26.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
6.4%
26.1%
2.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
6.4%
26.1%
2.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
6.4%
26.1%
2.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
4.4%
26.1%
2.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
Sales Growth (%)

Capex (% Sales)
DA (% Sales)
Tax (% EBT)
Shareholder loan PIK tax deductibility (%)
Sales Growth (%)
Base Case
Stress Case
Pre crisis adj.
10.0%
3.9%
2.0%
10.0%
5.0%
4.0%
6.0%
5.1%
3.5%
6.0%
4.6%
3.5%
6.0%
3.5%
3.0%
3.0%
3.4%
3.0%
3.0%
3.4%
3.0%
3.0%
3.4%
3.0%
1.0%
3.4%
3.0%

Base Case
Stress Case
Pre crisis adj.
3.0%
22.3%
15.0%
3.0%
22.5%
15.0%
3.0%
23.7%
16.0%
3.0%
23.7%
19.0%
3.0%
23.1%
20.0%
3.0%
23.1%
20.0%
3.0%
23.1%
20.0%
3.0%
23.1%
20.0%
3.0%
23.1%
20.0%
Capex (% Sales)
Base Case
Stress Case
Pre crisis adj.
(1.0%)
5.2%
2.0%
(1.0%)
5.2%
2.0%
(1.0%)
5.0%
1.0%
(1.0%)
4.5%
1.0%
(1.0%)
4.0%
2.0%
(1.0%)
3.0%
2.0%
(1.0%)
3.0%
2.0%
(1.0%)
3.0%
2.0%
(1.0%)
3.0%
2.0%
Interest rate

Debt Structure
Senior debt
RCF Facility
Capex Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated debt
Mezzanine
PIK Element
Cash Element
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
LIBOR
Cash Interest
Term (Years)
Amort.
x EBITDA
Amount
Spread
6
6
6
7
8
Bullet
Balloon
Bullet
Bullet
1.8x
1.6x
1.6x
750.0
750.0
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
3.25%
3.25%
3.25%
3.50%
3.75%
Bullet
1.2x
3,000.0
15
Bullet
1.1x
2,735.5
3.25%
3.25%
3.25%
3.50%
3.75%
5.00%
5.00%
4.00%
4.00%
12.00%
0.78%
Base Rates
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
1.0284%
1.1897%
2.1835%
3.1046%
3.7966%
4.2812%
4.5268%
4.5486%
4.7695%
1.0760%
0.0000%
1.1566%
0.0000%
1.6535%
0.0000%
2.1141%
0.0000%
2.4601%
0.0000%
2.7024%
0.0000%
2.8252%
0.0000%
2.8361%
0.0000%
2.9465%
0.0000%
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
1.08%
4.33%
1.30%
1.16%
4.41%
1.30%
1.65%
4.90%
1.30%
2.11%
5.36%
1.30%
2.46%
5.71%
1.30%
2.70%
5.95%
1.30%
2.83%
-
2.84%
-
2.95%
-
Commitment
Undrawn
750.0
750.0
750.0
750.0
750.0
750.0
750.0
750.0
750.0
750.0

0.0
576.1
576.1
576.1
644.5
1,220.6
1,220.6
723.8
1,944.5
1,944.5
770.6
2,715.0
2,715.0
1,292.4
4,007.5
4,007.5
1,356.4
5,363.9
5,363.9
1,179.1
6,543.0
6,543.0
738.5
7,281.5
7,281.5
(849.3)
6,432.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(9.8)
0.0
(9.8)
0.0
(9.8)
0.0
(9.8)
0.0
(9.8)
0.0
(9.8)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.08%
4.33%
1.30%
750.0
750.0
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.16%
4.41%
1.30%
1.65%
4.90%
1.30%
2.11%
5.36%
1.30%
2.46%
5.71%
1.30%
2.70%
5.95%
1.30%
2.83%
-
2.84%
-
2.95%
-
750.0
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
650.0
0%
0.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
500.0
0%
100.0
0.0
150.0
250.0
500.0
0%
250.0
0.0
750.0
100%
250.0
(250.0)
750.0
0%
0.0
0.0
750.0
0%
0.0
0.0
750.0
0%
0.0
0.0
250.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(9.8)
0.0
(9.8)
(2.5)
(8.5)
(9.4)
(6.5)
(14.3)
(6.5)
(7.4)
(9.8)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$ 3m LIBOR forward curve

$ 3yr SWAP Rate
% Swaped
Floating Base Rate
Fixed Base Rate
1.1235%
50.00%
1
2
Step 4 Define the senior debt repayment schedule

Senior Debt Repayment Schedule
RCF Facility
Base Rate
Interest rate
Commitment fee
2009A
2010A
100.0
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
0.0
Interest expense
Capex Facility
Base Rate
Interest rate
Commitment fee
Commitment
Undrawn
Opening Balance
Draw down
Closing Balance
Interest expense
0.0
Term Loan A
Base Rate
Interest rate
Fixed Charges Cover
Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
1.08%
4.33%
1.16%
4.41%
1.65%
4.90%
2.11%
5.36%
2.46%
5.71%
2.70%
5.95%
2.83%
6.08%
2.84%
6.09%
2.95%
6.20%
2.2x
2.1x
2.0x
1.9x
4.5x
3.9x
2.6x
1.2x
0.8x
5.0%
4,500.0
(225.0)
(576.1)
(194.7)
3,698.9
10.0%
3,698.9
(450.0)
(644.5)
(163.0)
2,604.4
15.0%
2,604.4
(675.0)
(723.8)
(127.7)
1,205.5
20.0%
1,205.5
(900.0)
(305.5)
(64.7)
0.0
20.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
30.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.08%
4.58%
1.16%
4.66%
1.65%
5.15%
2.11%
5.61%
2.46%
5.96%
2.70%
6.20%
2.83%
6.33%
2.84%
6.34%
2.95%
6.45%
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(183.0)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(186.3)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(206.1)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
(465.0)
(224.6)
3,535.0
0.0%
3,535.0
0.0
(1,292.4)
(210.7)
2,242.5
0.0%
2,242.5
0.0
(1,356.4)
(139.1)
886.1
100.0%
886.1
(886.1)
0.0
(56.0)
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.08%
4.83%
1.16%
4.91%
1.65%
5.40%
2.11%
5.86%
2.46%
6.21%
2.70%
6.45%
2.83%
6.58%
2.84%
6.59%
2.95%
6.70%
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(193.0)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(196.3)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(216.1)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(234.6)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(248.4)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(258.1)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
(1,179.1)
(263.0)
2,820.9
100.0%
2,820.9
(2,820.9)
0.0
(185.8)
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
1.08%
5.00%
5.08%
1.16%
5.00%
5.16%
1.65%
5.00%
5.65%
2.11%
5.00%
6.11%
2.46%
5.00%
6.46%
2.70%
5.00%
6.70%
2.83%
5.00%
6.83%
2.84%
5.00%
6.84%
2.95%
5.00%
6.95%
0.0%
3,000.0
0.0
(150.0)
(152.3)
3,150.0
0.0%
3,150.0
0.0
(157.5)
(162.4)
3,307.5
0.0%
3,307.5
0.0
(165.4)
(187.0)
3,472.9
0.0%
3,472.9
0.0
(173.6)
(212.3)
3,646.5
0.0%
3,646.5
0.0
(182.3)
(235.6)
3,828.8
0.0%
3,828.8
0.0
(191.4)
(256.6)
4,020.3
0.0%
4,020.3
0.0
(201.0)
(274.4)
4,221.3
0.0%
4,221.3
0.0
(211.1)
(288.6)
4,432.4
100.0%
4,432.4
(4,654.0)
(221.6)
(307.9)
0.0
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%

Opening Balance
Closing Balance
0.0%
2,735.5
0.0
(328.3)
3,063.8
0.0%
3,063.8
0.0
(367.7)
3,431.4
0.0%
3,431.4
0.0
(411.8)
3,843.2
0.0%
3,843.2
0.0
(461.2)
4,304.4
0.0%
4,304.4
0.0
(516.5)
4,820.9
0.0%
4,820.9
0.0
(578.5)
5,399.4
0.0%
5,399.4
0.0
(647.9)
6,047.3
0.0%
6,047.3
0.0
(725.7)
6,773.0
0.0%
6,773.0
0.0
(812.8)
7,585.8
11,698.9
14,848.9
10,604.4
13,911.9
9,305.5
12,778.4
7,785.0
11,431.5
6,492.5
10,321.4
4,886.1
8,906.4
2,820.9
7,042.2
0.0
4,432.4
0.0
0.0
Term Loan B
Base Rate
Interest rate
4.30
4,500.0

Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
Term Loan C
Base Rate
Interest rate
4,000.0

Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
4,000.0
Step 5 Define the Mezzanine/Unsecured Bond and Shareholder Loan repayment schedule
Mezzanine and SH Rep. Schedule
Mezzanine
Base Rate
PIK Element
Cash Element
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
Total Senior debt

Total debt (SHL not included)
2009A
2010A
3,000.0
2,735.5

$M
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
9774.6
1681.6
-486.3
1,195.3
10707.4
2444.5
-463.0
1,981.5
12,199.7
3,084.2
(530.7)
2,553.6
14,033.7
3,574.0
(593.9)
2,980.1
15,592.9
4,163.7
(431.0)
3,732.7
17,242.5
4,608.9
(456.5)
4,152.4
18,880.3
4,920.7
(498.7)
4,422.0
20,090.5
5,238.4
(529.8)
4,708.7
21,379.1
5,576.9
(562.8)
5,014.2
22,751.4
5,937.6
(597.9)
5,339.7
23,757.6
6,203.1
(623.2)
5,579.9
Interest Income
Interest expense
Senior debt (TLa, TLb, TLc or Senior Secured Bond)
RCF Facility
Capex Facility
Mezzanine PIK
Mezzanine Cash
Shareholder loan PIK
Total Interest (Cash Interest + Mezz. PIK + SHL PIK)
Net Interest
2.2
7.0
12.3
18.1
26.2
36.5
46.3
53.8
53.4
(570.7)
(9.8)
(9.8)
(150.0)
(152.3)
(328.3)
(742.5)
(1,220.8)
(1,218.5)
(545.5)
(9.8)
(9.8)
(157.5)
(162.4)
(367.7)
(727.5)
(1,252.6)
(1,245.6)
(550.0)
(9.8)
(10.9)
(165.4)
(187.0)
(411.8)
(757.6)
(1,334.8)
(1,322.5)
(523.8)
(9.8)
(15.9)
(173.6)
(212.3)
(461.2)
(761.8)
(1,396.6)
(1,378.5)
(459.1)
(9.8)
(20.8)
(182.3)
(235.6)
(516.5)
(725.2)
(1,424.0)
(1,397.9)
(397.2)
(9.8)
(17.2)
(191.4)
(256.6)
(578.5)
(680.7)
(1,450.7)
(1,414.2)
(319.1)
0.0
0.0
(201.0)
(274.4)
(647.9)
(593.4)
(1,442.4)
(1,396.0)
(185.8)
0.0
0.0
(211.1)
(288.6)
(725.7)
(474.4)
(1,411.1)
(1,357.3)
0.0
0.0
0.0
(221.6)
(307.9)
(812.8)
(307.9)
(1,342.3)
(1,288.9)
EBT
Taxable income
Tax
Net income
1,335.0
1,653.4
(570.4)
764.6
1,734.5
2,091.1
(721.4)
1,013.1
2,410.3
2,809.7
(969.3)
1,440.9
2,773.9
3,221.3
(1,111.3)
1,662.6
3,024.1
3,525.2
(1,216.2)
1,808.0
3,294.4
3,855.6
(1,330.2)
1,964.3
3,618.1
4,246.6
(1,465.1)
2,153.0
3,982.5
4,686.4
(1,616.8)
2,365.7
4,291.0
5,079.4
(1,752.4)
2,538.6

$M
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
EBITDA
Adjustments:
- Tax
- Capex
+ Facility funded capex
FCF (% EBITDA)
2009A
3,084.2
3,574.0
4,163.7
4,608.9
4,920.7
5,238.4
5,576.9
5,937.6
6,203.1
118.1
(570.4)
(514.4)
0.0
2,117.6
68.7%
196.3
(721.4)
(589.4)
0.0
2,459.4
68.8%
197.4
(969.3)
(623.7)
100.0
2,868.0
68.9%
140.7
(1,111.3)
(603.5)
150.0
3,184.8
69.1%
145.8
(1,216.2)
(566.4)
0.0
3,283.9
66.7%
100.7
(1,330.2)
(401.8)
0.0
3,607.1
68.9%
107.2
(1,465.1)
(427.6)
0.0
3,791.5
68.0%
114.1
(1,616.8)
(455.0)
0.0
3,979.9
67.0%
83.6
(1,752.4)
(475.2)
0.0
4,059.2
65.4%

Interest Income
(742.5)
2.2
1,377.3
(727.5)
7.0
1,739.0
(757.6)
12.3
2,122.7
(761.8)
18.1
2,441.2
(725.2)
26.2
2,584.9
(680.7)
36.5
2,962.9
(593.4)
46.3
3,244.4
(474.4)
53.8
3,559.4
(307.9)
53.4
3,804.6
Debt Repayments
Excess Cash
Cash Sweep
(225.0)
1,152.3
(576.1)
(450.0)
1,289.0
(644.5)
(675.0)
1,447.7
(723.8)
(900.0)
1,541.2
(770.6)
0.0
2,584.9
(1,292.4)
(250.0)
2,712.9
(1,356.4)
(886.1)
2,358.3
(1,179.1)
(2,820.9)
738.5
0.0
(4,654.0)
(849.3)
0.0
0.0
576.1
0.0
576.1
OK
576.1
644.5
0.0
1,220.6
OK
1,220.6
723.8
0.0
1,944.5
OK
1,944.5
770.6
0.0
2,715.0
OK
2,715.0
1,292.4
0.0
4,007.5
OK
4,007.5
1,356.4
0.0
5,363.9
OK
5,363.9
1,179.1
0.0
6,543.0
OK
6,543.0
738.5
0.0
7,281.5
OK
7,281.5
(849.3)
0.0
6,432.2
OK

RCF Drawdown/Repayment
Cash balance check
2010A
0.0
Step 8 - Calculate the sequential cash sweep

$M
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
Term Loan A
Effective sweep to Term Loan A
(576.1)
4,275.0
(576.1)
(644.5)
3,248.9
(644.5)
(723.8)
1,929.4
(723.8)
(770.6)
305.5
(305.5)
(1,292.4)
0.0
0.0
(1,356.4)
0.0
0.0
(1,179.1)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Term Loan B
Effective sweep to Term Loan B
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
(465.0)
4,000.0
(465.0)
(1,292.4)
3,535.0
(1,292.4)
(1,356.4)
2,242.5
(1,356.4)
(1,179.1)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
(1,179.1)
4,000.0
(1,179.1)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Term Loan C
Effective sweep to Term Loan C
2010A
Apply CS
1.0
Step 9 - Input the closing balance sheet and make adjustments

$M
2010A
Adj.
2010PF

Cash & Equivalents
Net Working Capital
1753.9
(776.6)
977.3
(1,753.9)
0.0
(1,753.9)
0.0
(776.6)
(776.6)
6,141.6
(3,725.1)
2,416.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
6,141.6
(3,725.1)
2,416.5
533.3
679.7
0.0
0.0
19,147.6
255.0
533.3
19,827.3
255.0
4,606.8
17,648.7
22,255.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
932.1
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
(932.1)
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
0.0
Equity
Shareholder loan
Common Stock
Retained Earnings
0.0
146.3
3528.4
3,674.7
2,735.5
3,873.7
(3,528.4)
3,080.8
2,735.5
4,020.0
0.0
6,755.5
Total Liabilities&Equity
Balance check
4,606.8
OK
17,648.7
OK
22,255.5
OK

Other Long Term Assets
Total fixed assets
Goodwill
Fees
Total assets
Long term debt
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Mezzanine
Step 10 - Link the pro-forma balance sheet and calculate the future balance sheets
$M
2010PF
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E

Cash & Equivalents
Net Working Capital
0.0
(776.6)
(776.6)
576.1
(894.7)
(318.6)
1,220.6
(1,091.0)
129.6
1,944.5
(1,288.3)
656.1
2,715.0
(1,429.0)
1,286.0
4,007.5
(1,574.8)
2,432.7
5,363.9
(1,675.5)
3,688.4
6,543.0
(1,782.7)
4,760.3
7,281.5
(1,896.8)
5,384.7
6,432.2
(1,980.4)
4,451.8

6,141.6
(3,725.1)
2,416.5
6,656.0
(4,255.8)
2,400.2
7,245.4
(4,849.7)
2,395.7
7,869.1
(5,280.6)
2,588.5
8,472.6
(5,737.2)
2,735.4
9,039.0
(6,235.9)
2,803.1
9,440.8
(6,765.6)
2,675.2
9,868.4
(7,328.4)
2,540.0
10,323.4
(7,926.3)
2,397.2
10,798.6
(8,549.5)
2,249.1
Other Assets
Total fixed assets
Goodwill
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
Total assets
22,255.5
22,697.2
23,140.9
23,860.2
24,637.0
25,851.4
26,979.2
27,915.9
28,397.5
27,316.5
Long term debt

RCF Facility
Capex Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Mezzanine
0.0
0.0
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
0.0
0.0
3,698.9
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,150.0
0.0
0.0
2,604.4
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,307.5
0.0
100.0
1,205.5
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,472.9
0.0
250.0
0.0
3,535.0
4,000.0
3,646.5
0.0
250.0
0.0
2,242.5
4,000.0
3,828.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
886.1
4,000.0
4,020.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2,820.9
4,221.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4,432.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Equity
Shareholder loan
Common Stock
Retained Earnings
2,735.5
4,020.0
0.0
6,755.5
3,063.8
4,020.0
764.6
7,848.4
3,431.4
4,020.0
1,777.7
9,229.1
3,843.2
4,020.0
3,218.6
11,081.8
4,304.4
4,020.0
4,881.2
13,205.5
4,820.9
4,020.0
6,689.1
15,530.0
5,399.4
4,020.0
8,653.4
18,072.8
6,047.3
4,020.0
10,806.4
20,873.7
6,773.0
4,020.0
13,172.1
23,965.1
7,585.8
4,020.0
15,710.7
27,316.5

Balance check
22,255.5
OK
22,697.2
OK
23,140.9
OK
23,860.2
OK
24,637.0
OK
25,851.4
OK
26,979.2
OK
27,915.9
OK
28,397.5
OK
27,316.5
OK
Step 11 Calculate the credit statistics

$M
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
3,084.2
11,122.7
14,272.7
(740.3)
(514.4)
3,574.0
9,383.8
12,691.3
(720.5)
(589.4)
4,163.7
7,361.1
10,833.9
(745.3)
(623.7)
4,608.9
5,069.9
8,716.4
(743.6)
(603.5)
4,920.7
2,485.1
6,313.9
(699.0)
(566.4)
5,238.4
(477.8)
3,542.5
(644.3)
(401.8)
5,576.9
(3,722.2)
499.1
(547.1)
(427.6)
5,937.6
(7,281.5)
(2,849.2)
(420.5)
(455.0)
6,203.1
(6,432.2)
(6,432.2)
(254.5)
(475.2)
66.7%
62.5%
57.4%
51.4%
46.4%
40.0%
31.6%
19.9%
0.0%

Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
3.6x
20.0%
2,467.4
4.51x
4.50x
19.9%
2.6x
20.0%
2,859.2
3.28x
3.30x
20.4%
1.8x
22.5%
3,226.9
2.28x
2.30x
23.1%
1.1x
22.5%
3,571.9
1.42x
1.40x
21.4%
0.5x
25.0%
3,690.5
0.67x
0.65x
22.3%
(0.1x)
25.0%
3,928.8
(0.12x)
(0.10x)
8.8%

Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
4.6x
20.0%
2,467.4
5.78x
5.80x
20.2%
3.6x
20.0%
2,859.2
4.44x
4.45x
20.2%
2.6x
22.5%
3,226.9
3.36x
3.35x
22.3%
1.9x
22.5%
3,571.9
2.44x
2.45x
22.8%
1.3x
25.0%
3,690.5
1.71x
1.70x
24.5%

Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
4.2x
20.0%
2,467.4
3.33x
3.35x
19.6%
5.0x
20.0%
2,859.2
3.97x
3.95x
20.4%
5.6x
22.5%
3,226.9
4.33x
4.35x
22.1%
6.2x
22.5%
3,571.9
4.80x
4.80x
22.6%
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
3.5x
20.0%
2,467.4
2.64x
2.65x
23.7%
4.1x
20.0%
2,859.2
3.15x
3.15x
24.0%
4.7x
22.5%
3,226.9
3.49x
3.50x
26.3%
2.2x
1.00x
54.3%
2.1x
1.00x
52.1%
2.0x
1.00x
50.0%
EBITDA
Net Senior debt
Net Total debt
Net Cash interest (RCF+Capex+Sen.debt+Mezz.Cash-Int.Income)
Capex

Proposed Covenant
Headroom
(0.7x)
25.0%
4,182.7
(0.89x)
(0.90x)
25.8%
(1.2x)
25.0%
4,453.2
(1.64x)
(1.65x)
25.7%
(1.0x)
25.0%
4,652.3
(1.38x)
(1.40x)
25.9%
0.7x
25.0%
3,928.8
0.90x
0.90x
24.9%
0.1x
25.0%
4,182.7
0.12x
0.10x
10.5%
(0.5x)
25.0%
4,453.2
(0.64x)
(0.65x)
26.2%
(1.0x)
25.0%
4,652.3
(1.38x)
(1.40x)
25.9%
7.0x
25.0%
3,690.5
5.28x
5.30x
24.7%
8.1x
25.0%
3,928.8
6.10x
6.10x
25.0%
10.2x
25.0%
4,182.7
7.65x
7.65x
25.0%
14.1x
25.0%
4,453.2
10.59x
10.60x
24.9%
24.4x
25.0%
4,652.3
18.28x
18.30x
24.9%
5.4x
22.5%
3,571.9
3.99x
4.00x
25.7%
6.2x
25.0%
3,690.5
4.47x
4.45x
28.6%
7.5x
25.0%
3,928.8
5.47x
5.45x
27.4%
9.4x
25.0%
4,182.7
6.86x
6.85x
27.2%
13.0x
25.0%
4,453.2
9.51x
9.50x
27.1%
22.5x
25.0%
4,652.3
16.41x
16.40x
27.1%
1.9x
1.00x
47.8%
4.5x
1.00x
77.9%
3.9x
1.00x
74.2%
2.6x
1.00x
61.0%
1.2x
1.00x
17.2%
(22.2%)

Step 12 Calculate the IRR and sensitivity analysis
Institutional Equity at Entry
Ordinary equity split (to fund)
EBITDA
Total debt (excluding SHL)
Closing Cash position
SHL
Base Case
2015
4,920.7
10,321.4
4,007.5
4,820.9
2014
4,608.9
11,431.5
2,715.0
4,304.4
8.0x
9.0x
(EV-Net debt)
10.0x
8.0x
33,051.6
37,972.3
42,893.0
28,230.7
33,151.4
38,072.1
28,090.3
32,986.5
37,882.7
38,364.9
43,603.3
48,841.7
32,965.5
38,203.9
43,442.3
19,227.9
22,834.1
26,440.4
32,911.2
Stress case
2015
4,109.5
10,867.8
3,461.0
4,820.9
2016
4,356.1
9,659.3
4,611.0
5,399.4
9.0x
10.0x
25,469.3
29,578.8
33,688.3
29,800.2
34,156.3
38,512.4

14,923.5
18,529.8
22,136.0
20,648.4
24,757.9
28,867.4
24,400.8
28,756.9
33,113.0
32,801.5
38,013.8
43,226.2
14,849.3
18,437.6
22,025.9
38,200.9
19,153.6

28,036.3
2010
2015
Proceeds to equity

23,732.0
28,317.9
32,903.9
(add back the SHL)
2014
3,606.3
11,884.4
2,262.1
4,304.4

23,850.6
28,459.5
33,068.5
(take into account sweet equity split)
2016
5,238.4
8,906.4
5,363.9
5,399.4
Proceeds to equity
28,155.0
32,763.9
37,372.8
(EV-Net debt-SHL)
Entry year
Exit year (middle range)
6,735.5
99.5%
20,545.6
24,634.7
28,723.8
24,279.4
28,613.8
32,948.2

25,366.5
29,678.8
0.8x
1.00x
1
2
3
4
2020E
4.4%
26.1%
2.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
1.0%
3.4%
3.0%
3.0%
23.1%
20.0%
(1.0%)
3.0%
2.0%
2020E
4.8068%
2.9652%
0.0000%
2020E
2.97%
-
750.0
6,432.2
4,112.9
10,545.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.97%
750.0
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.97%
6.22%
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.97%
6.47%
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.97%
6.72%
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2020E
2.97%
5.00%
6.97%
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.00%
0.0%
7,585.8
0.0
(910.3)
8,496.0
0.0
0.0
2020E
24,809.3
6,480.8
(649.6)
5,831.2
66.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(910.3)
0.0
(910.3)
(844.2)
4,987.0
5,869.9
(2,025.1)
2,961.8
2020E
6,480.8
87.4
(2,025.1)
(496.2)
0.0
4,046.9
62.4%
0.0
66.1
4,112.9
0.0
4,112.9
0.0
6,432.2
4,112.9
0.0
10,545.1
OK
2020E
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2020E
10,545.1
(2,067.8)
8,477.3
11,294.7
(9,199.1)
2,095.6
788.3
19,827.3
31,188.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8,496.0
4,020.0
18,672.5
31,188.6
31,188.6
OK
2020E
6,480.8
(10,545.1)
(10,545.1)
66.1
(496.2)
0.0%
(1.6x)
25.0%
4,860.6
(2.17x)
(2.15x)
24.3%
(1.6x)
25.0%
4,860.6
(2.17x)
(2.15x)
24.3%
25.0%
4,860.6
25.0%
4,860.6
-
1.00x
-

Model Outputs
Pre Crisis Bank and Mezz Pro Forma Capital Structure
Base
Cash
PIK
$M
Amount
Cum. %
xEBITDA
2010PF
xE-C
Rate
Margin
Margin
All In
Maturity
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
4,500.0
4,000.0
20.2%
38.2%
1.8x
3.5x
2.3x
4.3x
1.08%
1.08%
3.25%
3.50%
4.33%
4.58%
2016
2017
Term Loan C
Total Senior Debt
4,000.0
12,500.0
56.2%
56.2%
5.1x
5.1x
6.3x
6.3x
1.08%
3.75%
4.83%
2018
Mezzanine
Total Debt
3,000.0
15,500.0
69.6%
69.6%
6.3x
6.3x
7.8x
7.8x
1.08%
4.00%
10.08%
2019
Equity
Total Capitalization
6,755.5
22,255.5
100.0%
9.1x
2,444.5
$M
2010PF
5.00%
Pre Crisis Bank a

Base Case
1,994.5
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
Revenue
10,707.4
12,199.7
14,033.7
15,592.9
17,242.5
18,880.3
20,090.5
21,379.1
% Growth
EBITDA
2,444.5
13.9%
3,084.2
15.0%
3,574.0
11.1%
4,163.7
10.6%
4,608.9
9.5%
4,920.7
6.4%
5,238.4
6.4%
5,576.9
26.2%
25.3%
(514.4)
15.9%
25.5%
(589.4)
16.5%
26.7%
(623.7)
10.7%
26.7%
(603.5)
6.8%
26.1%
(566.4)
6.5%
26.1%
(401.8)
6.5%
26.1%
(427.6)
Change in WC
Operating Cash Flow
118.1
2,688.0
196.3
3,180.9
197.4
3,737.3
140.7
4,146.1
145.8
4,500.1
100.7
4,937.3
107.2
5,256.6
Net Cash Interest Expense

Taxes
(740.3)
(570.4)
(720.5)
(721.4)
(745.3)
(969.3)
% Growth
% Margin
Capex
22.8%
Facility Funded Capex

Free Cash Flow
0.0
1,377.3
Cumulative Free Cash Flow

Total Debt Repayments
1,377.3
(801.1)
Cumulative Free Cash Flow
0.0
1,739.0
3,116.2
(1,094.5)
576.1
1,220.6
(743.6)
(1,111.3)
100.0
2,122.7
5,238.9
(1,398.8)
1,944.5
150.0
2,441.2
7,680.1
(1,670.6)
2,715.0
(699.0)
(1,216.2)
0.0
2,584.9
10,264.9
(1,292.4)
4,007.5
(644.3)
(1,330.2)
0.0
2,962.9
13,227.8
(1,606.4)
5,363.9
(547.1)
(1,465.1)
0.0
3,244.4
16,472.2
(2,065.2)
6,543.0
Balance Sheet
RCF Facility
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Capex Facility
Term Loan A
0.0
4,500.0
0.0
3,698.9
0.0
2,604.4
100.0
1,205.5
250.0
0.0
250.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Total Senior Debt
4,000.0
4,000.0
12,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
11,698.9
4,000.0
4,000.0
10,604.4
4,000.0
4,000.0
9,305.5
3,535.0
4,000.0
7,785.0
2,242.5
4,000.0
6,492.5
886.1
4,000.0
4,886.1
0.0
2,820.9
2,820.9
Mezzanine
Total Debt
3,000.0
15,500.0
3,150.0
14,848.9
3,307.5
13,911.9
3,472.9
12,778.4
3,646.5
11,431.5
3,828.8
10,321.4
4,020.3
8,906.4
4,221.3
7,042.2
Net Total Debt
0.0
15,500.0
576.1
14,272.7
1,220.6
12,691.3
1,944.5
10,833.9
2,715.0
8,716.4
4,007.5
6,313.9
5,363.9
3,542.5
6,543.0
499.1
Credit Statistics
5.1x
6.3x
Cash
Total Fixed Charge Cover
Refinancing Risk
Previous Year Net Total Leverage
3.6x
4.6x
2.6x
3.6x
1.8x
2.6x
1.1x
1.9x
0.5x
1.3x
(0.1x)
0.7x
(0.7x)
0.1x
4.2x
2.19x
5.0x
2.09x
5.6x
2.00x
6.2x
1.92x
7.0x
4.53x
8.1x
3.88x
10.2x
2.56x
0.0
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
Avg. Cost
5.63%

Base Case
2018E
2019E
2020E
10
22,751.4
23,757.6
24,809.3
6.4%
5,937.6
4.4%
6,203.1
4.4%
6,480.8
6.5%
26.1%
(455.0)
4.5%
26.1%
(475.2)
4.5%
26.1%
(496.2)
114.1
5,596.7
83.6
5,811.6
87.4
6,072.0
(420.5)
(1,616.8)
0.0
3,559.4
20,031.5
(2,820.9)
7,281.5
(254.5)
(1,752.4)
0.0
3,804.6
23,836.2
(4,654.0)
6,432.2
66.1
(2,025.1)
0.0
4,112.9
27,949.1
0.0
10,545.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4,432.4
4,432.4
7,281.5
(2,849.2)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6,432.2
(6,432.2)
10,545.1
(10,545.1)
(1.2x)
(0.5x)
(1.0x)
(1.0x)
(1.6x)
(1.6x)
14.1x
1.21x
24.4x
0.82x
NM
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
Project PEVCE
Charts
Chart 1
Sourses of Funds
Senior debt
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated debt
Mezzanine
$M
Equity
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
0.2021972097
0.179730853
0.179730853
3,000.0
0.1347981398
6,755.5
0.3035429444
22,255.5
Sources of Funds
Equity
Term Loan A
Term Loan
A
Term Loan
B
Term Loan
C
Mezzanine
Term Loan B
Mezzanine
Term Loan C
Chart 2
Equity breakdown
Fixed Return Instruments
Ordinary Shares - Investors
Ordinary Shares - Management
$M
2,735.5
4,000.0
20.0
0.4049293169
0.5921101325
0.0029605507
6,755.5
Equity breakdown
0%
40%
59%
Fixed Return Instrum

Ordinary Shares - In
Ordinary Shares Management
0%
40%
Fixed Return Instrum

Ordinary Shares - In
59%
Chart 3
Breakdown of Proceeds at 9x Multiple and Exit Yr 2015
Total Proceeds
48,293.7
Total Debt
37,972.3
Shareholder Loan
33,151.4
Proceeds to PE Fund
6,630.3
Proceeds to Management
0.0
10,321.4
4,820.9
26,521.1
6,630.3
10,321.4
4,820.9
48,293.7
Total Proceeds
26,521.1
Total Debt
Shareholder Loan
Proceeds to PE Fund
Breakdown of Proceeds
EBITDA
Exit Multiple
Cash
Total Proceeds
2014
4,608.9
9.0
2,715.0
44,195.4
2015
4,920.7
9.0
4,007.5
48,293.7
Debt
Senior Debt
Mezzanine
Proceeds to Investors
7,785.0
3,646.5
32,763.9
6,492.5
3,828.8
37,972.3
Shareholder Loan
Proceeds to Ords
4,304.4
28,459.5
4,820.9
33,151.4
4,304.4
22,767.6
27,072.0
4.0
4,820.9
26,521.1
31,342.0
4.7
Breakdown of Ordinary Shares

Proceeds to PE
Shareholder Loan
80% of Ords
Proceeds to PE
Proceeds to Management
Pro
Ma
20% of Ords
Proceeds to Mgmt
Chart 4
Returns Breakdown
Revenue growth
EBITDA mg
Leverage
Multiple arbitrage
2.62
4.75
5.61
5.61
5,691.9
5,691.9
6,630.3
6,630.3
2.12
0.87
0.00
2.62
2.12
0.87
0.00
100.0%
15.4%
90.0%
0.0%
80.0%
70.0%
37.8%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
46.7%
10.0%
0.0%
Revenue growth
EBITDA mg
Leverage
Multiple arbitrage
RETURNS BREAKDOWN
NOTE: THIS CALCULATES THE VALUE CREATION AT A GIVEN EV LEVEL
PLEASE NOTE: THESE CALCULATIONS ONLY WORK FOR EBITDA margins and will need to be amended to reflect
Revenue
EBITDA at entry margin
Difference in EBITDA
Value from Revenue growth
Revenue
New Revenue
Revenue at acquisition - INSERT LAST FULL YEAR REVENUES
Actual EBITDA mg
EBITDA mg at acquisition
Increase in EBITDA
Value from Revenue growth
TOTAL VALUE FROM REVENUE GROWTH
EBITDA actual
EBITDA mg
EBITDA at entry Revenues
Difference in EBITDA
Value from margin improvement
Initial Leverage
Net Leverage at exit
Value from deleveraging
Initial Multiple
Exit Multiple
Value from Multiple expansion
Total Value created
Returns breakdown
Revenues
EBITDA mg
Leverage
Multiple arbitrage
TOTAL
MM
Revenues
EBITDA mg
Leverage
Multiple arbitrage
Chart 5
Amortisation Profile
RCF Facility
Capex Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Mezzanine
2010A
0.0
0.0
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
2011E
0.0
0.0
3,698.9
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,150.0
2012E
0.0
0.0
2,604.4
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,307.5
Amortisation Profile
16,000.0
14,000.0
12,000.0
10,000.0
8,000.0
6,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
0.0
2010A
Mezzanine
2011A
2012A
2013A
Term Loan C
Term Loan
B
2014A
2016A RCF 2017A
Term
Loan A 2015A
Capex Facility
Facility
2018A
20
Chart 6
Uses of EBITDA
Interest Income
Interest expense
Tax
Net Capex
Net Use of Revolver
Change in NWC
Debt Repayments
Cash Sweep
Cash
2011E
-2.2
742.5
570.4
514.4
0.0
-118.1
225.0
576.1
576.1
2012E
-7.0
727.5
721.4
589.4
0.0
-196.3
450.0
644.5
1,220.6
2013E
-12.3
757.6
969.3
523.7
0.0
-197.4
675.0
723.8
1,944.5
Uses of EBITDA
14,000.0
13,000.0
12,000.0
11,000.0
10,000.0
9,000.0
8,000.0
7,000.0
6,000.0
5,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
0.0
2011E
-1,000.0 Cash
2012E
Cash Sweep
2013E
2014E
Debt Repayments
2015E
Change in NWC
2016E
Net Use of Revolver
Chart 7
EBITDA Margins
50.00%
45.00%
2011E
25.28%
2012E
25.47%
2013E
26.70%
EBITDA Margins
2017
Net Ca
EBITDA Margins
50.00%
45.00%
40.00%
35.00%
30.00%
25.47%
25.00% 25.28%
26.73%
26.70%
26.07%
26.06%
26
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
Chart 8
2011E
68.66%
FCF % of EBITDA
2013E
68.88%
FCF % of EBITDA
75.00%
70.00%
2012E
68.81%
68.66%
68.81%
68.88%
69.10%
68.86%
66.74%
65.00%
60.00%
55.00%
50.00%
2011E
2012E
2013E
Chart 9
Leverage Credit Statistics
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
4.5x
20%
3.6x
2014E
2015E
2011E
3.6x
4.5x
20%
23%
20% 1. Net Senior debt/EBITDA
21%
3.3x
2.6x
2016E
2012E
2.6x
3.3x
20%
22%
Propos ed Covenant
20
2013E
1.8x
2.3x
23%
Head
9%
2.3x
1.8x
1.1x
1.4x
4.5x
20%
3.6x
23%
20% 1. Net Senior debt/EBITDA
21%
22%
Propos ed Covenant
Head
3.3x
2.6x
9%
2.3x
1.8x
1.1x
1.4x
0.5x
0.7x
(0.1x)
(0.1x)
2011E
2012E
2013E
Chart 10
Leverage Credit Statistics
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
5.8x
20%
4.6x
22%
20% 2. Net Total debt/EBITDA
2014E
2015E
2011E
4.6x
5.8x
20%
2012E
3.6x
4.5x
20%
23%
2016E
2013E
2.6x
3.4x
22%
25%
25%
Propos ed Covenant
Head
4.5x
3.6x
3.4x
2.6x
2.5x
1.9x
1.3x
1.7x
0.7x
0.9x
2011E
2012E
2013E
Chart 11
Interest Cover Credit Statistics
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
20%
1. EBITDA/Cas20%
h interes t
2014E
2011E
4.2x
3.4x
20%
22%
23%
Propos ed Covenant
2015E
2016E
2012E
5.0x
4.0x
20%
2013E
5.6x
4.4x
22%
25%
Headroom
25%
20%
1. EBITDA/Cas20%
h interes t
2011E
2012E
Headroom
2013E
6.1x
5.3x
4.8x
2014E
Chart 13
Cash Cover Credit Statistics
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
8.1x
7.0x
6.2x
4.4x
4.0x
25%
25%
23%
Propos ed Covenant
5.6x
5.0x
4.2x
3.4x
22%
2015E
2011E
2.2x
1.0x
54%
2016E
2012E
2.1x
1.0x
52%
FCF/(Cas h Interest+Debt
4.5xRepayment)
2013E
2.0x
1.0x
50%
Proposed Covenant
3.9x
2.6x
2.2x
2.1x
2.0x
1.9x
1.2x
1.0x
0.5x
2011E
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
0.5x
0.5x
0.5x
2012E
2013E
2014E
Chart 14
Enterprise Value - $b
LBO entry
NPV
APV
Comps
1.0x
0.8x
2015E
Low
17,111.5
18,006.4
21,583.7
21,992.8
1.0x
0.7x
1.0x
0.6x
2016E
2017E
High
22,000.5
19,144.5
23,415.0
25,222.4
Entreprise Value - $B
APV
LBO entry
NPV
1.0x
0.2x
2018E
APV
LBO entry
NPV
LBO entry
NPV
LBO entry
NPV
APV
APV
Chart 15
Revenue Growth
5.0%
3.2%
2.9%
7.0%
8.9%
7.5%
5.7%
4.6%
3.5%
6.1%
Comp1
Comp2
Comp3
Comp4
Comp5
Comp6
Comp7
Comp8
Comp9
Comp10
Market Share
6.8%
13.5%
7.9%
9.1%
2.3%
5.0%
4.6%
2.7%
5.7%
11.0%
Competition Analysis
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Chart 16
EBITDA Bridge
Entry EBITDA 2010
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
Exit EBITDA 2015
$M
2,444.5
80.0
325.0
405.0
785.0
190.0
323.0
258.0
110.2
4,920.7
Cumulative
2524.5
2849.5
3254.5
4039.5
4229.5
4552.5
4810.5
4920.7
0.0
Illustrative EBITDA Bridge ($M

323.0
785.0
190.0
405.0
325.0
80.0
2,444.5
Entry EBITDA
2010
Term Loan
A
Term Loan
B
Term Loan
C
Mezzanine


521.1
6,630.3
to PE Fund
Proceeds to
Management
2016
5,238.4
9.0
5,363.9
52,509.7
4,886.1
4,020.3
43,603.3
5,399.4
38,203.9
5,399.4
30,563.1
35,962.5
5.3
7,640.8
7,640.8
46.7%
37.8%
15.4%
0.0%
46.7%
46.7%
84.6%
84.6%
37.8%
15.4%
0.0%
0.0%
Multiple arbitrage
be amended to reflect the use of EBIT margins

2011
12199.7
3084.2
25.3%
2014
17,242.5
4,359.1
1,274.9
11,473.9
2015
18,880.3
4,773.1
1,688.9
15,200.3
2016
20,090.5
5,079.1
1,994.9
17,953.9
17,242.5
12,199.7
26.7%
25.3%
73.1
657.6
12,131.5
18,880.3
12,199.7
26.1%
25.3%
52.2
469.9
15,670.1
20,090.5
12,199.7
26.1%
25.3%
62.6
563.1
18,517.0
4,608.9
26.7%
3,261.0
176.8
1,590.8
4,920.7
26.1%
4,493.9
1,409.6
12,686.6
5,238.4
26.1%
4,922.9
1,838.6
16,547.7
017A
Facility
15,500.0
2013E
0.0
100.0
1,205.5
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,472.9
2018A
2019A
2014E
0.0
250.0
0.0
3,535.0
4,000.0
3,646.5
2020A
2015E
0.0
250.0
0.0
2,242.5
4,000.0
3,828.8
11,431.5
4,068.5
10,321.4
5,178.6
8,906.4
6,593.6
9.00 x
9.00 x
-
9.00 x
9.00 x
-
9.00 x
9.00 x
-
17,790.8
33,535.4
41,658.4
68.2%
8.9%
22.9%
0.0%
100.0%
46.7%
37.8%
15.4%
0.0%
100.0%
44.4%
39.7%
15.8%
0.0%
100.0%
4.84
5.61
6.45
3.30
0.43
1.11
0.00
2.62
2.12
0.87
0.00
2.86
2.56
1.02
0.00
2016E
0.0
0.0
0.0
886.1
4,000.0
4,020.3
2017E
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2,820.9
4,221.3
2018E
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4,432.4
2019E
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2020E
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2014E
-18.1
761.8
1,111.3
453.5
0.0
-140.7
900.0
770.6
2,715.0
2015E
-26.2
725.2
1,216.2
566.4
0.0
-145.8
0.0
1,292.4
4,007.5
2016E
-36.5
680.7
1,330.2
401.8
0.0
-100.7
250.0
1,356.4
5,363.9
2017E
-46.3
593.4
1,465.1
427.6
0.0
-107.2
886.1
1,179.1
6,543.0
2018E
-53.8
474.4
1,616.8
455.0
0.0
-114.1
2,820.9
0.0
7,281.5
2019E
-53.4
307.9
1,752.4
475.2
0.0
-83.6
4,654.0
0.0
6,432.2
2020E
-66.1
0.0
2,025.1
496.2
0.0
-87.4
0.0
0.0
10,545.1
2019E
26.11%
2020E
26.12%
TDA
2016E
se of Revolver
gins
2017E
Net Capex
2014E
26.73%
2018E
2019E
2020E
Tax
2015E
26.06%
2016E
26.07%
2017E
26.09%
2018E
26.10%
gins
26.07%
26.10%
26.09%
2016E
2017E
2018E
2014E
69.10%
2015E
66.74%
26.12%
26.11%
2019E
2016E
68.86%
2020E
2017E
67.98%
2018E
67.03%
2019E
65.44%
2020E
62.44%
BITDA
68.86%
67.98%
67.03%
65.44%
62.44%
2016E
2017E
2014E
1.1x
1.4x
21%
2018E
2015E
0.5x
0.7x
22%
26%
Headroom
9%
2016E
(0.1x)
(0.1x)
9%
2019E
2017E
(0.7x)
(0.9x)
26%
26%
2020E
2018E
(1.2x)
(1.7x)
26%
26%
2019E
(1.0x)
(1.4x)
26%
2020E
(1.6x)
(2.2x)
24%
24%
26%
26%
26%
24%
Headroom
9%
(0.1x)
(0.1x)
(0.9x)
(0.7x)
2016E
2017E
2014E
1.9x
2.5x
23%
2015E
1.3x
1.7x
25%
(1.2x)
(1.7x)
(1.0x)
(1.4x)
2018E
2019E
2016E
0.7x
0.9x
25%
2017E
0.1x
0.1x
11%
26%
25%
(1.6x)
(2.2x)
2018E
(0.5x)
-0.7x
26%
2020E
2019E
(1.0x)
-1.4x
26%
26%
2020E
(1.6x)
-2.2x
24%
24%
Headroom
11%
Headroom
0.7x
0.9x
0.1x
0.1x
-0.7x
(0.5x)
-1.4x
(1.0x)
(1.6x)
-2.2x
2016E
2014E
6.2x
4.8x
23%
25%
2017E
2015E
7.0x
5.3x
25%
25%
2018E
2016E
8.1x
6.1x
25%
2019E
2017E
10.2x
7.7x
25%
25%
2018E
14.1x
10.6x
25%
25%
24.4x
18.3x
14.1x
10.2x
2020E
2019E
24.4x
18.3x
25%
2020E
-
25%
Headroom
25%
25%
25%
24.4x
18.3x
14.1x
10.2x
10.6x
8.1x
7.7x
6.1x
2016E
2017E
2014E
1.9x
1.0x
48%
sed Covenant
2015E
4.5x
1.0x
78%
2018E
2016E
3.9x
1.0x
74%
Headroom
2.6x
1.2x
1.0x
0.6x
2017E
1.0x
0.2x
2018E
0.8x
1.0x
-0.2x
2019E
1.0x
2020E
B
19 - 22
Comps
2019E
2017E
2.6x
1.0x
61%
2018E
1.2x
1.0x
17%
2020E
2019E
0.8x
1.0x
-22% -
2020E
1.0x
Comps
Comps
Comps
on Analysis
Comp1
Comp2
Comp3
Comp4
Comp5
Comp6
Comp7
Comp8
Comp9
Comp1
0
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Bridge ($M)
323.0
258.0
110.2
90.0
4,920.7
Exit EBITDA
2015
COPYRIGHTS NOTE 2013
FURTHER REPRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION OF THESE MODEL AND MATERIALS C

IS PROHIBITED WITHOUT FURTHER WRITTEN PERMISSION BY ANDREAS ANGELOPOU
CASES, MODELS, GUIDELINES AND ANY OTHER MATERIALS PROVIDED BY ANDREAS

ARE PROPERTY OF ANDREAS ANGELOPOULOS WHO RETAINS SOLE OWNERSHIP OF T
THESE CASES, FINANCIAL MODELS IN EXCEL AND OTHER MATERIALS ARE AVAILABLE
REGISTERED STUDENTS IN THIS CLASS AND STRICTLY FOR CLASS DISCUSSION. THE
SHOULD NOT BE USED FOR COMMERCIAL OR PROFESSIONAL USE, SOLD, TRADED O
COPIED, PRESENTED OR CIRCULATED, ALL OR PARTS, WITHOUT THE PRIOR WRITTEN
ANDREAS ANGELOPOULOS.
ODEL AND MATERIALS CONTAINED HEREIN

BY ANDREAS ANGELOPOULOS.
PROVIDED BY ANDREAS ANGELOPOULOS

NS SOLE OWNERSHIP OF THESE MATERIALS.
MATERIALS ARE AVAILABLE ONLY FOR THE

R CLASS DISCUSSION. THE MATERIALS
AL USE, SOLD, TRADED OR LENT, HIRED OUT,
HOUT THE PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT OF

Finance Modeling Lab

Enviado por

Dados do documento

Título original

Direitos autorais

Formatos disponíveis

Compartilhar este documento

Compartilhar ou incorporar documento

Opções de compartilhamento

Você considera este documento útil?

Este conteúdo é inapropriado?

Direitos autorais:

Formatos disponíveis

Finance Modeling Lab

Enviado por

Direitos autorais:

Formatos disponíveis

Oxford Financial Modelling LAB

REFERENCES & SUGGESTE READINGS:

e Oxford Finance Modlling Lab

Jersey, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

1b. Equity instruments

2. Operational & Financial Model

4. Investment analysis (Graphs)

Financial Modelling LAB

Guidelines for implementing your working model:

3. DCF Analysis follows using the NPV and APV methodologies

erational segment based on the historical data provided

future Income Statement, Cash Flow Statement and Balance Sheet

Company to be used in the NPV method

perational assumptions provided (this is similar to the process in step 2 above)

will need to be updated at a later step

1A. DEBT FINANCE INSTRUMENTS

Financial Modelling LAB

Step 2 Define the Senior Debt Repayment Schedule

Expand for the answer

Financial Modelling LAB

Step 2 Define the Mezzanine repayment schedule

Expand for the answer

Financial Modelling LAB

Step 2 Define the HY Bond repayment schedule

Expand for the answer

Financial Modelling LAB

Step 2 Define the RCF and CapEx facilities repayment schedule

$ 3M LIBOR forward curve

Expand for the answer

1B. EQUITY INSTRUMENTS

Financial Modelling LAB

Step 2 Define the Shareholder Loan repayment schedule

Expand for the answer

2. OPERATIONAL & FINANCIAL STA

ANCIAL STATEMENTS (FS) MODEL

Financial Modelling LAB

Note 1: Fiscal year end for Starbucks is end of September

well as strong growth in other segments

xpected based on our ssumptions

Financial Modelling LAB

US ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Depreciation & Amortisation

International ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Depreciation & Amortisation

CPG ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Depreciation & Amortisation

Starbucks Corporation ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Financial Modelling LAB

US ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Depreciation & Amortisation

International ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Depreciation & Amortisation

CPG ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Depreciation & Amortisation

Starbucks Corporation ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Financial Modelling LAB

Step 2 Forecast the income statement

Step 3 - Calculate the cash flow & cash balance

Cash balance check

Current Working Capital

Less Accumulated Depreciation

Net Property, Plant & Equipment

Financial Modelling LAB