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Calamaya
Samaritans Purse Philippines
National Security Manager
FROM:
SUBJECT:
capacity to explode. The blast the city residents heard was a disruption process used by bomb
disposal unit.
2.) DISCUSSION: Impact to Security Environment
The Bangsamoro Basic Law is viewed by many as a catalyst for peace in Muslim
Mindanao, and the failure by the Congress to pass the said law is expected by many to spark and
renew conflict in the area. Its non-passage may result to following implications
1.)
Congress fails to pass the BBL and a fall-out among the rebels will follow:
Although the MILF leadership has committed to stay the course of peace and continue pushing
for the passage of the BBL in the next administration, it is worth considering a scenario where
frustrated members would defect to radical groups, hence there might be an increase in extremism
in the area which significantly change the security environment of Mindanao.
2.)
Non-passage of the BBL will result to a renewed conflict the same with the
non-passage of the 2008-2009 Memorandum of Agreement of Ancestral Domain: Since the
BBL has been viewed as a catalyst for peace in Mindanao and for this reason has also resulted to
the disarmament process of the MILF, its non-passage may also serve as a catalyst for renewed
conflict.
3.)
Rebels hold-on to the peace process, honor the Comprehensive Agreement
on Bangsamoro (CAB) and pass the BBL to the next administration: There is still a good
chance that the Moro Islamic Liberation front will respect the CAB and pass the passage of the
BBL to the next administration.
Significantly, with the capture of a senior and high ranking official of the Bangsamoro
Islamic Liberation Front (BIFF), this may lead to an armed conflict between the said group and
the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AF), wherein BIFF will conduct hostilities against
government security forces in retaliation to the capture of their ranking official and may also
conduct highly radicalized terroristic activities against urban cities, in an effort to destabilize the
trust of populace in the capability of the government to protect them.
3.) RECOMMENDATIONS: Operational Security
Strict implementation of security protocols in the field. Security protocols for field travels
to Cotabato must be implemented strictly. Field travels outside urban centers must be avoided and
if ever a need arises, prior coordination to respective government, UN agencies and other
stakeholders must be secured. Regular check-in procedures must be conducted in order to inform
Base of staff whereabouts. Avoid going to areas affected by the armed conflict. Avoid going to
public places, or riding the public transport. Avoid traveling outside urban centers. Avoid going
near police or military installations, for these are targets for terroristic activities.
***NOTHING TO FOLLOW***