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1. INTRODUCTION
This report presents the results of a workshop in Water Resources Management. A
spreadsheet in Microsoft Excel developed by Willem Dube was used. The modules to be
worked in the spreadsheet are: Public Water Supply, Agriculture Demand, Water allocation,
Investments and Economic Analysis, Economic and Financial Analysis.
The spreadsheet was filled according to several in formations included in the lecture notes.
The main objective of the workshop is the understanding of the spreadsheet, the interpretation
of the data and the filling of a scorecard with the most important information to be provided
to the decision makers.
The scorecard is presented in the appendix 1.
2. DATA AND COMMENTS
Agriculture
431.84 Mm3
Crop Rotation
R1
R2
P1
Type
Rice and Vegetables
Wheat and Cotton
Citrus
%
40
40
20
Demand
b) Desert
Cultivated Area 200 ha
Crop Rotation :
Crop Rotation
R1
P1
P2
Type
Rice and Vegetables
Citrus
Apple
%
20
40
40
SOURCES
Sustained
Grw.renew.
27.50
Demand:
Supply
OldT
3.58
PWS
NewT
0.96
Vils
0.00
3.00
0.81
0.00
Agriculture
River
Desert
431.84
4.47
20.50
3.13
Industry
Total
12.80
453.65
1.00
28.44
Deficit
0.94
Grw.non-renew
Surf.water
(pipe line)
%Re-use drain
< 10
0.00
Supply
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.83
8.83
8.83
418.00
Supply
0.58
0.15
0.00
411.34
1.83
3.48
417.39
-0.61
0.00
Supply
0.00
0.00
Totals
445.50
454.66
9.16
Alloc.
0.00
3.58
0.96
0.00
431.84
4.96
13.31
Type
Rice and Vegetables
Wheat and Cotton
Citrus
%
50
35
15
Type
Rice and Vegetables
Citrus
Apple
%
20
40
40
SOURCES
Grw.renew.
Grw.non-renew
Surf.water (pipe
line)
%Re-use drain <
10
Totals
Sustained
Demand:
OldT
4.59
PWS
NewT
1.63
Vils
0.00
27.50
0.00
Supply
Supply
3.00
0.00
0.00
1.48
0.00
0.00
418.00
Supply
1.59
0.15
0.00
0.00
Supply
445.50
Alloc.
Agriculture
River
Desert
430.41
4.47
20.58
0.00
409.8
3
Industry
1.63
0.00
430.41
Deficit
16.00
457.10
2.00
0.43
5.27
7.00
30.85
8.91
3.35
8.91
2.04
3.73
417.34
-0.66
0.00
0.00
457.10
11.60
0.00
4.59
Total
4.47
16.00
Type
Rice and Vegetables
Wheat and Cotton
Citrus
%
50
35
15
Type
Rice and Vegetables
Citrus
Apple
%
20
40
40
SOURCES
Grw.renew.
Grw.non-renew
Surf.water (pipe
line)
%Re-use drain <
10
Totals
Sustained
Demand:
OldT
9.59
PWS
NewT
2.21
Vils
0.00
27.50
0.00
Supply
Supply
3.00
0.00
0.00
2.17
0.00
0.00
418.00
Supply
6.59
0.04
0.00
0.00
Supply
445.50
Alloc.
Agriculture
River
Desert
430.41
4.47
23.21
0.00
407.2
0
Industry
2.21
0.00
430.41
Deficit
20.00
466.68
2.00
0.62
5.68
12.00
33.89
14.79
6.39
14.79
1.85
2.32
418.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
466.68
21.18
0.00
9.59
Total
4.47
20.00
Investm(Mmu,bank)
Benefits(Mmu,bank
Investm(Mmu,bank)
Benefits(Mmu,bank
Investm(Mmu,bank)
Benefits(Mmu,bank
Investm(Mmu,bank)
Benefits(Mmu,bank
23.7
0.745
5.04
1.44
1.67
0.55
0.32
0
Strategy 1
2010
70
100%
16
yes
1500
no
no
Strategy2
2020
70
100%
20
yes
3000
yes
no
Strategy3
2020
70
100%
20
yes
3000
yes
10%
Startegy4
2020
70
100%
20
yes
3000
yes
25%
Strategy5
2020
70
100%
20
yes
max
yes
25%
The tables bellow presents the results of water allocation for different strategies.
2.4.1 Strategy 1 2010
The main change in the Strategy 1 is to increase the cultivated area in the desert to 1500 ha.
This change implies an increase in the demand for water in the desert aquifer mainly.
Table 5: Annual Water Demand and Allocation for 2010 Strategy 1.
SOURCES
Grw.renew.
Grw.non-renew
Surf.water (pipe
line)
%Re-use drain <
10
Totals
Sustained
Demand:
OldT
4.59
PWS
NewT
1.63
Vils
0.00
Agriculture
River
Desert
430.41
33.50
Industry
Total
16.00
486.13
Deficit
27.50
0.00
Supply
Supply
3.00
0.00
0.00
1.63
0.00
0.00
20.58
0.00
11.51
16.00
7.41
12.00
42.50
29.63
15.00
29.63
418.00
Supply
1.59
0.00
0.00
409.83
5.99
0.59
418.00
0.00
0.00
Supply
0.00
0.00
490.13
44.63
445.50
0.00
Alloc.
4.59
1.63
0.00
430.41
33.50
20.00
The investments in the desert also will increase as well as the benefits. The draw down in the
aquifer will increase, because of the amount of water that have to be extracted from this
aquifer. The River aquifer also will have a drawdown, because according to management
strategy used in the water allocation it was chosen to have a quasi equivalent drawdown in
both aquifers, for environmental reasons. The drawdown in the desert and river aquifer will
be respectively, 0.38 and 0.37 meters/ year.
The economic parameters in strategy 1 will be B/C and IRR will be 1.18/19.8. The NP value
for the strategy 1 cannot be calculated because it is not applied for 10 years.
2.4.2 Strategy 2 2020
The main change in the Strategy 2 was to increase the cultivated area in the desert to 3000 ha,
and also change the crop factors in order to have a good benefit. The percentages used was 60
% for the Perennial 1 (Apple) and 40 % in Perennial 2 (Citrus) This change implies an
increase in the demand for water in the desert aquifer mainly.
Table 6: Annual Water Demand and Allocation for 2020 Strategy 2.
Annual water demand and allocation (Mm3/y)
SOURCES
Grw.renew.
Grw.non-renew
Sustained
27.50
0.00
Demand:
Supply
Supply
OldT
9.59
PWS
NewT
2.21
Vils
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
2.21
0.00
0.00
Agriculture
River
Desert
430.41
69.10
23.21
0.00
22.43
42.46
Industry
Total
20.00
531.31
7.00
13.00
55.64
57.67
Deficit
28.14
57.67
Surf.water (pipe
line)
%Re-use drain <
10
Totals
418.00
Supply
0.00
Supply
445.50
6.59
0.00
0.00
407.2
0
4.21
0.00
0.00
Alloc.
9.59
2.21
0.00
430.41
69.10
20.00
418.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
531.31
85.81
The investments in the desert also will increase as well as the benefits. The draw down in the
aquifer will increase, because of the amount of water that have to be extracted from this
aquifer. The River aquifer also will have a drawdown, because according to management
strategy used in the water allocation it was chosen to have a quasi equivalent drawdown in
both aquifers, for environmental reasons. The drawdown in the desert and river aquifer will
be respectively, 0.72 and 0.70 meters/ year.
The economic parameters will be better using strategy to than strategy 1. The B/C and IRR
will be 1.52/26%.
2.4.3 Strategy 3 - 2020
For the strategy 3 it was included the reuse of water of 10%. This factor changes mainly the
results in the drawdown in both aquifers. The investments and benefits are in the same
magnitude as the strategy 2, also high.
For the environmental point of view it is a good result, because it reduces the total water
volume to be extracted fro the aquifers (the total deficit for strategy 3 is 2 times less than for
strategy 2).
SOURCES
Grw.renew.
Grw.non-renew
Surf.water (pipe
line)
%Re-use drain <
10
Totals
Sustained
Demand:
OldT
9.59
PWS
NewT
2.21
Vils
0.00
27.50
0.00
Supply
Supply
3.00
0.00
0.00
2.06
0.00
0.00
418.00
Supply
6.59
0.15
0.00
43.04
Supply
488.54
Alloc.
Agriculture
River
Desert
430.41
69.10
8.50
0.00
378.8
6
Industry
2.21
0.00
430.41
Deficit
20.00
531.31
20.00
18.25
8.80
10.00
40.30
30.31
12.80
30.31
30.85
1.20
417.66
-0.34
43.04
0.00
531.31
42.77
43.04
9.59
Total
69.10
20.00
The drawdown in the desert and river aquifer will be respectively, 0.38 and 0.32 meters/ year.
The economic parameters will be better using strategy to than strategy 2. The B/C and IRR
will be 1.65/28.3
2.4.4 Strategy 4 - 2020
The main change in strategy 4 is to increase the reuse of water in 25%. This change has no
effect in the results. (maybe a review of the conditional formula have to be accessed, because
the reuse of more water implies less demand from the aquifers) and consequently the
drawdown would be less).
Table 8: Annual Water Demand and Allocation for 2020 Strategy 4.
Annual water demand and allocation (Mm3/y)
SOURCES
Grw.renew.
Grw.non-renew
Surf.water (pipe
line)
%Re-use drain <
10
Totals
Sustained
Demand:
OldT
9.59
PWS
NewT
2.21
Vils
0.00
27.50
0.00
Supply
Supply
3.00
0.00
0.00
2.06
0.00
0.00
418.00
Supply
6.59
0.15
0.00
43.04
Supply
488.54
Agriculture
River
Desert
430.41
69.10
8.50
0.00
378.8
6
Industry
9.59
2.21
0.00
430.41
Deficit
20.00
531.31
20.00
18.25
8.80
10.00
40.30
30.31
12.80
30.31
30.85
1.20
417.66
-0.34
43.04
0.00
531.31
42.77
43.04
Alloc.
Total
69.10
20.00
SOURCES
Grw.renew.
Grw.non-renew
Surf.water (pipe
line)
%Re-use drain <
10
Totals
Sustained
Demand:
OldT
9.59
PWS
NewT
2.21
Vils
0.00
27.50
0.00
Supply
Supply
3.00
0.00
0.00
2.06
0.00
0.00
418.00
Supply
6.59
0.15
0.00
43.04
Supply
488.54
Alloc.
Agriculture
River
Desert
430.41
96.74
8.50
0.00
378.8
6
Industry
2.21
0.00
430.41
Table 9: Annual Water Demand and Allocation for 2020 Strategy 52.
Deficit
20.00
558.95
30.00
35.61
8.00
10.80
49.50
48.47
22.00
48.47
31.13
1.20
417.94
-0.06
43.04
0.00
558.95
70.41
43.04
9.59
Total
96.74
20.00
SOURCES
Grw.renew.
Grw.non-renew
Surf.water (pipe
line)
%Re-use drain <
10
Totals
Demand:
OldT
9.59
PWS
NewT
2.21
Vils
0.00
27.50
0.00
Supply
Supply
3.00
0.00
0.00
2.06
0.00
0.00
418.00
Supply
6.59
0.00
0.00
43.04
Supply
Sustained
488.54
Alloc.
Agriculture
River
Desert
430.41 183.74
8.50
0.00
378.8
6
Industry
2.06
0.00
430.41
Deficit
20.00
645.95
55.00
96.74
8.00
10.80
74.50
109.60
47.00
109.60
32.00
0.55
418.00
0.00
43.04
0.00
645.14
156.60
43.04
9.59
Total
183.74
19.35
The conclusion by the analysis of the economic parameters tells us that it is not worth
increase the cultivated area of the desert, since the investments will be high, as well as the
benefits, but the B/C has no significant changes.
will not change significantly.
Appendix 1
WORKSHOP ON STRATEGIC PLANNING
Bank rate
16%
Base case
Discount rate
12%
2000
PWS l/c/d
given
PWS coverage
given
Industry(Mcm)
12.8
Agr.River Crop shift
no
Agr Desert(ha)
200
Agr.Des.cashcrops
no
Re-use
no
OT 3.58,NT
Mm3
0.96
Mm3
12.8
Mm3
431.84
Mm3
4.47
Mm3
9.16
Investm(Mmu,bank)
16%
n.a
Benefits(Mmu,bank
16%
n.a
Investm(Mmu,bank)
16%
n.a
Benefits(Mmu,bank
16%
n.a
Investm(Mmu,bank)
16%
n.a
Benefits(Mmu,bank
16%
n.a
Investm(Mmu,bank)
16%
n.a
Benefits(Mmu,bank
16%
n.a
NPV (Mmu,disc)
16%
n.a
B/C ; IRR
16%
n.a
Water quality
Employment
Employment
Waste water(Mcm)
65%
Pesticides(ton)
Mining (m/year)
Mining (m/year)
250/Mm3
1.5/ha
65%
15kg/ha
n=20%
n=20%
Base case
2010
70
100%
16
yes
200
no
no
OT 4.59,NT
1.63
16
430.41
4.47
11.6
4.92
0.168/y
1.82
0.64/y
0.68
0.55
0.29
0
0
0
OT+- NT++
3200
300
OT+- NT++
4000
300
Base case
2020
70
100%
20
yes
200
no
no
OT
9.59,NT2.21
20
430.41
4.47
44.63
23.7
0.745
5.04
1.44
1.67
0.55
0.32
0
0
0
OT-+, NT+
+
5000
300
8.3
3
0.02
0.11
10.4
3
0.08
0.11
13
3
0.16
0.18
Strategy 1
2010
70
100%
16
yes
1500
no
no
OT 4.59,NT
1.63
16
430.41
33.5
21.18
4.54
0.168/y
2.93
0.64
0.69
0.55
22.87
34.99
5.34
1.18/19.8
Strategy2
2020
70
100%
20
yes
3000
yes
no
OT
9.59,NT2.21
20
430.41
69.1
85.81
23.7
0.745
2.93
1.44
1.67
0.55
46.91
92.72
35.07
1.52/26%
IHE-Delft
Strategy3
2020
70
100%
20
yes
3000
yes
10%
OT
9.59,NT2.21
20
430.41
69.1
42.77
23.7
0.745
2.93
1.44
1.67
0.55
43.4
92.72
39.62
1.65/28.3
2004
Startegy4
2020
70
100%
20
yes
3000
yes
25%
OT
9.59,NT2.21
20
430.41
69.1
42.77
23.7
0.745
2.93
1.44
1.67
0.55
43.4
92.72
39.62
1.65/28.3
Strategy5
2020
70
100%
20
yes
max
yes
25%
OT
9.59,NT2.21
20
430.41
230.34
202.89
24.14
0.745
3.22
1.44
3.15
0.55
61.71
132.46
52.46
1.66/28.5
OT-+,NT++
4000
2250
OT-+,NT++
5000
4500
OT-+,NT++
5000
4500
OT-+,NT++
5000
4500
OT-+,NT++
5000
4500
10.4
22500
0.38
0.37
13
45000
0.7
0.72
13
45000
0.32
0.38
13
45000
0.32
0.38
13
63000
0.55
0.6