11/23/2015

IbnKhaldunandtodaysPakistan

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IbnKhaldunandtodays
Anerrorhasoccurred.
Pakistan
ImranKhan

HolidayShopping2015:
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JillSchlesinger

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CityHousingTheCauseofand
SolutionToInequality(In9
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ImranKhan
ChairmanofPakistanTehreekeInsaf(PTI)

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IbnKhaldunandtodaysPakistan

Jun19,2015

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IbnKhaldunsTheMuqaddimahisoftencitedasthefirstworkofhistoriography
andtheforerunnertothesocialsciences.However,heisbestknownforhis
theoryofcyclicalpatternsofpoweroftheriseandfallofcivilisations.Arnold
Toynbee,thewesternhistorian,declaredMuqaddimahtobethegreatestworkof
itskindthathaseveryetbeencreatedbythehumanmind.
AccordingtoIbnKhaldun,whatbroughttheruinofacivilisationwasnotlackof
military,politicaloreconomicpowerbutinjusticewhensocietylostits
commitmenttojustice,ethicsandfairplay,andwhenpowerfulmembersof
societyputtheirowninterestsabovethoseofthecommunity.
IbnKhaldunwentontolistthehumanrightscontainedinIslamthatneededto
beprotected:therighttolife,religion,education,familyandproperty.His
conclusionwasthattheultimatepurposeoftheIslamiccommunitywasto
establishjusticebyprotectingpeoplesfundamentalrights.Thegreaterthe
commitmenttojustice,thestrongerthecommunity.
Aglanceathistoryshowsthatcivilisationswithabetterjusticesystemprospered.
Romanlawsweresuperiortothoseofthebarbarians.Later,theStateofMadina
wasbasedonAdlandInsafandcreatedoneofthemostegalitariansocieties
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basedonruleoflawandeconomicjusticesettingupthefirstwelfarestateinthe
historyofmankind.TherapidspreadofIslamwasduetoitsvastlysuperior
systemofjustice.Forinstance,inthe9thCenturyMuslimscholarsweredebating
therightsofthechild.
UnliketheMongolianconquest,noriversofbloodflowedwhenIslamspread
fromMoroccotoIndonesia,armedwithasuperiorvalueandjusticesystem.
WhentheOttomansmovedintoEasternEurope,theyliberatedthepeasantry
fromtheoppressivefeudalsystemthatprevailedthere.And,justasIbnKhaldun
hadpredicted,whentheMuslimscommitmenttojusticedeclinedsodidtheir
civilisation.WhileMuslimsbeganmovingtowardsabsolutekingship,European
attemptstobringtheirrulersunderruleoflawstartedwiththeMagnaCartain
the13thCentury.EventheBritishadministeredtheirempireinIndiathrough
ruleoflaw.
TodaytheMuslimworldhashitrockbottom.NoMuslimcountrycancompete
withtheEuropeansinthewaythelatterprotectthehumanrightsoftheir
citizens.InEuropefreequalityeducationisprovidedtopeoplethereisfreelegal
aidtothosecitizenswhocannotaffordlawyers,freemedicalcaretothepoor,and
thestatelooksafterthewelfareoftheunemployed,theoldandthehandicapped.
TheScandinaviancountriesstandoutwiththeircommitmenttojusticeeven
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animalrightsareprotected.
Itispainfultocomparethewesterncivilisationsjusticesystemtowhatexistsin
theMuslimworldtoday,ruledasitisprimarilybyanassortmentofdictators,
kingsandpseudodemocrats.However,noexampleofanunjustsocietyismore
painfulthanthatofPakistan.Theonlycountrytocomeintobeinginthenameof
Islam,weweresupposedtobecomeanexampleofthemodelIslambasedonthe
humane,justandcompassionatestateofMadina.Instead,wehavebeen
degeneratingrapidlyintofollowingthelawofthejunglemightisrightandthe
survivalofthefittest.Apredatoryrulingelitehasgotentrenchedinthesystem,
deprivingpeopleoftheirbasichumanrights.
AllthefundamentalrightsofcitizensareviolatedinPakistan.Therightto
practiseonesreligionisprotectedmorebywesterncountriesthanbyourstate.
EvenMuslimsectscannotbeprotectedbythestate,letalonenonMuslim
Pakistanis.Religiousscholarsholdingdifferingviewsfromthatofthemajority
secthavebeenkilledorhoundedoutofthecountry.Thetaxationsystemisthe
mostunjust,enrichingtherichandimpoverishingthepoorthroughindirect
taxes.Inthepast20yearstaxesontherichdeclinedby15percent,whileforthe
poortheywentupby35percentthroughincreasingindirecttaxation.Theruling
elitehidesitswealth,madethroughillegalmeans,inpropertiesandbank
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accountsabroad.
Therighttoqualityeducationisreservedonlyforatinyelite.Thereare800,000
childrengettingEnglishmediumeducation,twomilliongoingtomadressahsand
30millionwhogotoUrdumediumschools.Andthemostshamefulstatisticis
thatwehave25millionchildrenoutofschool.Similarly,healthfacilitiesonly
catertotherich.Themajorityofthecitizensendupinpoorqualityhospitals,
gettingsubstandardcareandhavingtobuymedicinestheycannotafford.Abouta
quarterofamillionchildrendieannuallybecauseofwaterbornepreventable
diseases.
Thebulkofthepopulationhasnoaccesstojustice,notbeingabletohirelawyers
tofacethelengthyandcumbersomecriminaljusticesystem.AnexIGofprisons
madeastartlingdisclosureinaseminarafewyearsbackthathalftheprison
populationisinnocenttheironlycrimebeingtheirpoverty.Meanwhileour
justicesystemisincapableofbringingthepowerfuleliteundertheruleoflaw.
Therichcangetawaywithalmosteverycrimestartingfromlandgrabbing,
moneylaundering,andstealingtaxpayersmoneytomurder.Whiletheaverage
citizenslife,propertyandfamilyfacedailythreats,alargeproportionofthe
policeforceprotectstheVIPs.

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IbnKhaldunsgreatestcontemptwasreservedforthosecitizenswhopassively
acceptedinjusticeinthesociety.Almost2000yearsearlier,Aristotlehadstated
thatthosecitizenswhodonotstandupagainstinjusticeareeithercowardsor
selfishbeingapartofthevestedinterest.Islammakesitasacredduty(jihad)to
standupagainstoppressionandinjustice.
Howfarwehavesunktodepthsofacceptinginjusticecouldbegaugedafterthe
2013generalelectionswhentheleadersofalmostallpoliticalpartiesclaimedthe
electionwasrigged.Yettheentirerulingeliteacceptedthisenormouscrime
wherethebasichumanrightofacitizen,thesanctityofhisvote,wasviolated.All
dictatorshaveheldelectionsbutbecausetheyareneitherfairnorfree,citizensdo
notmatter.Ifthecitizensvotesbecomeirrelevant,rulersdonthavetoworry
abouttheirwelfare,norbeheldaccountabletothetaxpayers.Sofundscanbe
divertedtoquestionablemegaprojectsratherthanhumandevelopment.
Ittooktwoyearsofrelentlesscampaigning,including126daysofdharna,to
finallyforcetherulingpoliticalmafiatoformajudicialcommissiontoinvestigate
thecrime.Inanywesterndemocracytheprocessofprobingelectoralfraudwould
havebeenoverwithinamatterofweeks.
Pakistanstandsatacriticalcrossroadsinitshistorytoday.Wecankeepgoingas
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weare,wherearulingelitekeepsplunderingthecountryandstashingitsloot
abroad,whilethecitizenssinkintoaseaofinflation(topaytherulingelites
debtsthroughhigherprices)andpoverty.
Thesenseofinjusticeanddeprivationamongstthesmallerprovinceswill
continuetoweakenthefederationwithanEastPakistan/Bangladeshsituation
waitingtohappen.Orwecanstandupforourrightsandfightforajustsociety
thereasonPakistanwascreated.
ThisarticlewaspublishedinTheNewsonSunday,May24,2015.

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UsmanYounis,FS(TV)MashaaAllah(
)

YOU

SeniorDesignandApplicationEngineeratIntechProcessAutomation
AssalamoAlaikumtoall,
VerynicepostbyImranKhan(theleaderchosenbymanyincludingmyself),I
loveit,especiallywhensomegreatMuslimscholarisgivenrespectwho
teachesthepeopletodogood(significanceofsuchIslamicScholarsisgiven
inmyposts6).
ImranKhan'sposthasaLotoflikes(120)(Iamsuretheoriginalpostin
newspaperwouldofhadahugenumberofviews),comments(37)andviews
(1149).
Itprovidessomenicestatistics,andideas,mostofwhichareagreeable.
AsIwouldliketoseeImranKhan'sPostsgettingHundredsofthousandsof
viewsand/orlikeslikeBarakObamaorotherLinkedinInfluencer
personalities)
SoIhavesomeconstructivefeedback,Ihopenobodywillnotmind
AsthereisalwaysroomforimprovementandContinuousimprovementisthe
JapanesewayofdoingthingscalledKaizen.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaizen
AnAmericavariantis6Sigma
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Sigma
theremaybeothersuchtechniquestoimproveprocessesslowly,gradually,
continualstepsratherthangiantleaps.
IwouldliketoaddsomeadvicerelatedtoLinkedinPostthat
Kindlystartwith"BismillahirRahmanirRaheem"
Addsomepicturesorgraphstoshowstatisticsgraphically,improvesthe
overalllookofyourpost
HighlightkeypointswithquotesoptioninLinkedinPost
Providesreferences(intheformofweblinks)shouldbeprovidedfor
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statisticsfromresearchreports
andinsteadofjustfocusingonScholarsfromIslamicHistory,weshould
alsoactuallyopentheQuranandSunnahandprovidereference(intheform
ofclickableweblinkspointingdirectlytooneormoreVersesorHadiths)
ImplementingQuranandHadithisastepbystepprocess
http://quran.com
http://www.sunnah.com
https://darussalampublishers.com/
MyPostsasasample
Kindlydoreviewmypost1,(1352views,>90%internationalviewoutside
Pakistan)
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/wordspraiseallahrewardunknownwhyone
explanationusmanyounis?trk=mpreadercard
MyPost2isjustajobadvertisementIpostingsoIamnotcountingthat
Kindlydoreviewmypost3(256views)
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/verypowerfulzikarfstvmashaaallah
?trk=mpreadercard
Kindlydoreviewmypost4(137Views)
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/islamicduacalenderfstvmashaaallah
?trk=mpreadercard
Kindlydoreviewmypost5(166Views)
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/islamiccalendarfromdarussalamarabic
englishurduusmanyounis?trk=mpreadercard
Kindlydoreviewmypost6(139Views)
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/significanceonewhoteachespeopledo
goodperjamiusmanyounis?trk=mpreadercard
Moreontheway(InShaAllah)
2042viewsin9months
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(almosteveryQuranVerseorHadithquotedwithcompletereference),
andIactuallyhaven'tgottimeyettowriteaboutmyInternationalExperiences
over11+years,technicalstufforwhatIdoprofessionallyasanengineer.
KindlyaddmeonLinkedinIfyouwish,Thanks
AllahHafiz
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8daysago

MuhammadYousufKhan

2nd

ManagerITinfrastructureatAssuretyConsultingInc.
loveyoubro:)
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23daysago

AnsariAbdulaziz

2nd

SeniorProjectManageratSoftmatics
Andsomeonesomedayhastodoit.
Forthesakeofourchildren,ourupcominggenerations.
Corruptsarefedbyvestedinterestwhichalwaysseemsindomitable!
Buthistoryshowit(thecorruptsandcorruption)canbeovercome.No
doubt,itisadifficultpropositiontoday.ButIfpeopledon'triseuptoday,
Tomorrowthereoughttobebloodshedthatwilltakeustomorechaosand
confusion.
IfImranKhanisjustasmallwindowdisplayingabeamoflightletstakea
chanceandstrengthenhimwithhopeofachievingsomedesirableresult.
Notonlythejudicialsystembuttheentirestateinfrastructurehasbeen
corruptedbyvestedinterest.Corruptpoliticiansarejusttheiravailablefool
tools."
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23daysago

mazahirulI.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ibnkhalduntodayspakistanimrankhan

2nd
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teachingbiologyforpreparatoryyearmedicalstudentsatJazanUniversity
itisntonlyforpakistanthisibnkhaldounjusticesystemisvalidforallthe
worldsystem.seeunpractisesonlyprotectingtheinterestofpowerful
countries.
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29daysago

RajaAliRaza
SecuritySupervisorinSGME
wellsaidIbnayKhaldoon
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1monthago

ImranSaleem

2nd

ManufacturingProcessesTrainingEngineerNationalUniversityofSciences
&Technology(NUST)
Wonderfulpost.
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1monthago

ArslanRabbani
ManagingDirectoratTheFreshFoodsCompanyLLC
uareourHero
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2monthsago

Mohammedshafiq

2nd

CeoEnerficiencysystemsltd
pakistanneedsaleadershipthatcantakeitintothe21stcenturyihave
thoughtlongandhardaboutitandhavecometoaconclusionthatifyou
hadtherightnetworkofintelligentcommittedandloyalpeoplethathavethe
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samegoalwhichismakepakistananindependentselfsustainablecountry
inshaallahwewillachieveourgoal
Ialsobelieveikisthemanforthejobhehasthecapabilitiesvisionand
commitment
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2monthsago

AsadUllahHunain

2nd

MarketingExecutiveatRaaziqInternationalPVTLTD
Impressivebutwhenwestartimplementthisinourlives?
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3monthsago

AzfarIqbal

2nd

ManagerAdministrationatEfrozeChemicalIndustries(Pvt.)Ltd.Pharma
Division
it'sgoodtoreadbut.......
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3monthsago

MuhammadAmmadHusain
Sr.AutomationEngineeratJuniperNetworks
ButtodayInnocentKhansackRetdJusticeWajijh,sameguywhichwas
nominatedbyhisparty,in2013forPresidentofPakistan.
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3monthsago

Mustafabaloch
ProjectManageratPPL
ILoveIK
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3monthsago
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FarazLatif
HeavydutydriveratGofsco
KhanLoveYou
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4monthsago

AffanK.
StudentatAimsSchoolAndCollege
KhanSbYouaretheonlyonewhichcanchangethissystem
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4monthsago

MujtabaBhatti

2nd

Entrepreneur
ThoughIamanIKliker(nottobemistakenbyfollower)andwhathesays
inrelationtoProphet(PBUH)andIbnKaldunareright,butthisselective
choicebasedonsubjectivenaturewouldbethedownfallofIK.
Wehadthejoshekhitabatpoliticians,wedidnotneededmore.
Islamtellsustonotlayaccusationswithoutproof,buttherehasbeenalot
ofaccusationsbyIKwithoutmuchsubstance.
Islamtellsusofhumilityandnottomakefalsepromises,butbothhavenot
beenbeenIK'sforte.
IfIKlikestoquoteandfollowthelifeofProphet(PBUH),thenhewouldbe
wisetoremembertheHijarahfromMakkahtoMadinaandsettingupa
systemtherewithoutinterferinginthepoliticsofMakkahforaverylong
time.
TheproofofriggedelectionseistsforKPKLGelectionstoo,thoughIKtook
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ahighermoralgroundbyofferingreelections(Iadmirehimforthat),atthe
sametimeheshouldlookintothereportofJustice(Retd)Wajihuddin,
wherehemayhaveoversteppeddhismandatebutwhatheissayingis
hittingquiteclosetohome.
IKneedstogethismojobackandrethinkhisposition,heneedstostick
withcleanpeople.WelcomeallbutrememberNewisSilverbutOldisGold.
Like (1)

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4monthsago

ShahzadLatif

MunirAhmedkhawaja

2nd

HeadCACAgriculture(PanPakistan)atBankAlfalahLimited
Truetothecore
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4monthsago

AqsamZaheer
ExecutiveFinanceatMillatEquipmentLimited
Wehavealargenumberofcompetentibnekhaldun.Buttheyhaveno
placetosparklingtheirselves.Butwehope.Onedayallahwillmake
pakistanaeconomicleader.Inshaallah
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4monthsago

AqsamZaheer
ExecutiveFinanceatMillatEquipmentLimited
Sirelitealsoincludetheprominentbusinessicons.whofeedtheirthe
employeeswithlowwagesvsmassivework.Butsocalledemployedpeople
arecomplledtodowork.Duetoincreasingunemploymenttheycan'tskip
theirjobsforbetteropportunity.Soresultingbraindrain.Ifwemake
substituteof80Billionworthofmetrobusservicewecanestablished
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approx80noofpubliclimitedco.with1billionequityeach.Nthese
companieswillhaveacapacitytoaddoptnearly1lacskillednunskilled
manpower.Butwhygovtdidnotthinkonit.Alass
Unlike (1)

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4monthsago

You

MuhammadNasir

2nd

SeniorITLeader
Commitmenttojusticeisindeedakeyelementforanysustainablesociety
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5monthsago

AbdulHameed
own(OnTheGoAccessoriesLtd)atMcArthurglenEastMidlands
MuhammadTariqHameed.IthinkyoubetterlearnEnglishfirst&then
commentonmyleader.Lol
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5monthsago

AsirIqbal
SummitBank
ThereisonlyonehopeandrayforbrightfutureofPAKISTANwhoisImran
Khan....INSHAALLAHONEdaywewillachieveourtargetandjustice.
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5monthsago

MuhammadTariqhanif
ManagerconstructiongolfcourseatBahriaTownkarachipakistan
ithingbetterplaycricket
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5monthsago

AsherMoin

2nd

ManagerInternalAuditNATPET(NationalPetrochemicalIndustrial
Company)
Itsaprofessionalnetworkdon'tuseitasFacebook.
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5monthsago

ZahidKhalid

2nd

Owner,SUN&FZAssociates
ImranKhanneedstolearnonlyonelessonfromMughalEmperorJalalud
DinMohammedtheGREAT:Buildateam(NauRatans:evenhemade
wrongchoices)of"UncompromisingPeopleofSpotlessCharacter"across
thecountry!"Forthatheneedsatleast2500to5000peopleatdistrict,
provincialandfederallevels.Idon'tseeadozenaroundhim!!!Heneedsto
understandthedifferencebetweencricket,philanthropyandpolitics.Itis
easytobringoutstandingprofessionalsonboardfromacrosstheglobe.But
politicians???
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5monthsago

Dr.MuhammadArshad
CEOatHiTechGroup
Apersonhavingpastfullofimmortalityandevenatpresentdoubtfullife
style,isdesirousofbeingknownasapersonfittinginacharactercapable
ofbringingthesocietytothestandardofIbneKhuldun'Muqadma
Abriefpictureofhisstyleandcapacitywehaveseenunderhiscommand
duringBaldiatiElections.
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5monthsago

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S.QaisarShareef

2nd

ConsultantBusinessStrategy.AdjunctFacultyinInternationalMarketing
Thisisaverywellwrittenassessmentoftheunfortunatesituationin
Pakistantoday.ThereferencetoIbnKhaldun'sMuqaddimahisveryapt.By
theway,theoriginalwritingsofIbnKhaldunarepreservedinalibraryin
Fes,Morocco.
Like

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5monthsago

UsmanZafar

2nd

VicePresidentatMatchlessAviationServices
GreatPublicationWemustOpenourEyesNOW
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5monthsago

AtiqAhmed

2nd

Strategicplanning/ALM/MISReporting
...25millionoutofschool...whatashame
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5monthsago

NehaWasim
VicePresidentInsafYouthWing,KPKatPakistanTehreekiInsaf
GreatpieceofImranKhansb..mayAllahblessyoualways..
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5monthsago

AbdulRahmanMarwat

2nd

PresidentMarwatGroup,sGlobalbusinessProfessional&RealState
consultantPakistan
AssalamoAlykum
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IbnKhaldunandtodaysPakistan

Averyhappy
Ramzanulkareemmubarik!
StayHappy
Staysafe
StayBlessed:)
Haveaniceday
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5monthsago

FarazBinFeroze
SeniorBusinessControlleratNokia
.........broughttheruinofacivilisationwasnotlackofmilitary,politicalor
economicpowerbutinjusticewhensocietylostitscommitmenttojustice,
ethicsandfairplay......
Like

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5monthsago

AsifFarooqui

2nd

LifetimeofdevelopingbestFMCGbrandsandpackaging!
Imransb:walkingbackintotheIslamabad,PunjabandSindhassembliesis
nothelpingyourcause,atall!Iamsure,thevastmajorityisgetting
disillusionedbypoliticalcompromisesbeingmadeatthisveryearlystageof
thesocialjusticerevolutionyouseemedatonetime,tobeleading!!Alas,
notanymore!
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5monthsago

NaseemAhmed

2nd

ChiefExecutiveatPetroSol
DaysarecountedforZardariSharifconsortium,Inshallah.
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5monthsago

NadeemAslam

2nd

ProjectManageratResearchSocietyofInternationalLaw
ThepivotalpointinintroducingtheIbnKhaldun'sphilosophyofhistoryisthe
miraculouspartplayedby"GroupFeeling",IbnKhaldun's"Muqaddimah"was
certainlyagreatworknotofitsowntimesonly.Itwasagreatachievementin
thefieldofphilosophyforalltimestocome.Yetitisalsotruethatsimilar
esteemedjobshavebeendonebythinkersofdifferentages.Wecannot
believeacertaintheorytobetruejustbecauseitwasmostimaginative,
nicelytreated,beautifullypresentedorthatitcamefromoneofourownclan.
WeasMuslimswouldonlybelievethattruthliesinwhateverhasbeen
revealedtousbyGodAlmightyandexplainedandpresentedbytheHoly
Prophet(peacebeuponhim)orwhatevercanachievetestimonyofthese
twosources.
Webelievethatinhis"Muqaddimah"IbnKhaldunhasnottrulycharacterized
themeaningsofgroupfeeling,whereastheHolyQuranhasdistinctlyspoken
aboutit.TheQuransaysthattheprimemosthurdleinthepathofthosewho
havebeenpresentedthe"Call"()toprostratetotheOneAlmightyand
believeintheauthorityoftheProphet(peacebeuponhim),isagroupfeeling
baseduponuntrueandunhealthynorms.Thustheveryideaofgroupfeeling
hasbeenstatedtohavemorethatoneconnotation.Agroupfeelingwhich
leadstotherightpathistheonlydesiredone.Thistypeofgroupfeelingcan
alsobenamedas(Hamiyyah)atermthatconnotesmuchhighervalues.
ThegroupfeelingIbnKhaldunhasspokenof,isbased"onlineageorplace
andculminatesintheestablishmentofroyalauthority".NowweasMuslims
knowthatthosegroupfeelingswhichgeneratetheideasof(worship
ofkinship)aretheabominableone.Again,agroupfeelingthatpersuadesa
mantosticktothecultureandideologyofhisowntribeorsect(beitrightor
wrong)isthegreatesthindranceintheevolutionofmoralvalues.Nochange
intheideologyofapeoplecantakeplaceiftheyarenotwillingtochange
theirculturalpattern.
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Thusitisevidentthat"Asabiyyah"shouldhavebeendealtwithbyIbn
Khaldun,justasithasbeentreatedbytheQuran.Byignoringthereal
significanceofQuranicconceptIbnKhaldunmadecertainother
misjudgementsaswellHetalksofreligionasadynamicforcethatmakesthe
grouppowerful.InfactIbnKhaldunshouldhavetalkedofIdeologyandnot
Religion.HeshouldhavetalkedofFaithasthebasicdynamicforceyet
anotherandthebasicfactthatIbnKhaldunignoresinthecharacterof
religiontonullifyalltheprevalentgroupsandevolveauniquegroupofits
own.
Like (1)

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5monthsago

BabarKhanJaved

UbaidUrRehman

2nd

FinanceResourceatKICTL
Sir,itstrulyinspirational,butthethingisthatthePakistanisocietyevenlost
orforgetstherealdefinitionofjustice.BelievemeIwitnesscommoners
argumenteachotheronsomethingthattheyconsiderjustifiedbecauseit
suitsthem,theyeagertogiveeverypossiblereasons(Evenitislame)in
fairoftheirargument,sotheremicromotiveswillbeprotectedorgetsome
sortofacceptancefromothermembersofthesociety.AndWhynotthey
behavelikethat,astheyitformtheproceedingsofourlegislativeinstitutes
(NationalAssembly&Senate)thattheirrepresentativegatherstodebate,
argueanddevelopconscienceson181920and21andmaybesoon
amendmentsinconstitution,whichsuiteseveryoneofthem(andonly
them)insomemanner,assomeofthemexpectedtotakebenefitfrom
themandothersareanticipatingthereliefinfuturefromthem.
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5monthsago

AkberIqbal,MBA,PMP

2nd

Manager,Projects|Technology|GovernanceatAgaKhanUniversity
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weareunabletogetoutofthisdivideandconquerscheme,(upontheir
demise)colonialswerereplacedbytheirloyalistsandthisviscouscircle
continuesAfreeandfairjusticesystemcanhelpusgetoutofthis,your
movementforjusticeisabeaconofhopeforusall.
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5monthsago

JillSchlesinger
BusinessAnalystatCBSNews

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HolidayShopping2015:NaughtyorNice?
Nov21,2015

166,209views

629Likes

82Comments

Americanconsumers,startyourengines!Thisweekendkicksofftheholiday
shoppingseasonandhereiswhatyouneedtoknow.Thealwaysdubious
NationalRetailFederation(NRF),theindustrycheerleader,ispredictinga3.7
percentincreaseinholidayspending.ButasBarryRitholtzhasnoted,the
methodologyemployedbytheNRFsurveyisdefective,becauseitreliesonasking
consumershowmuchtheyspentlastyear,andhowmuchtheyplanonspending
thisyear.Ofcourse,peoplehavenoideawhattheyspentlastyear.Noclue
whatsoever,whichiswhythetrackrecordsofthesesurveysareawful.
Sowhatsreallygoingonforconsumers,asweheadintoThanksgivingweek?
Althoughwagegainshavebeenslowtopickupoverall,relativelylowinflationhas
amountedtoextramoneyinthewalletsofmostAmericans.Theyarespending
someofthatmoneyonlonglastinggoods,likecars,aswellasservicesandalso
savingatadecent4.8percentrate.Butitisanyone'sguessaswhethertheywillbe
naughtyornicethisholidayseason.
AndbadthirdquarterearningsreportsfromMacy'sandNordstrom
notwithstanding,thedeathofbrickandmortarretailershasbeenoverstated.
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Despitetherapidgrowthofdigitalsales(thegovernmentsaidthatoverallE
commercejumped15.1percentinthethirdquarterfromayearago),most
shoppingoccursinphysicalstores.Infact,lastquarter,Ecommerceaccounted
forjust7.4percentofoverallretailsales.
Butthesenumbersaresomewhatmisleading,becauseoverallretailsalesinclude
thebigticketautomobilecategory,aswellasgasandgroceries.Accordingto
consultancyStrategy&,thesegroupsareresponsibleforalmosthalfoftotalretail
sales.Withoutthem,onlinespenetrationofitsaddressablemarketiscloserto
16percent.
Butthatsnotthewholestory:Deloittefoundthatnearlytwothirdsofinstore
retailsaleswillbeinfluencedbydigitalinteractionsthisholidayseason,as
consumerssmartenupandconductresearchontheirdesktops,tabletsand
phonesandconsultshoppingappstolandthebestdeals.
Speakingofthosebargains,shoppingearlycanpayoff.AccordingtoAdobe
Digitalresearch,onlinepricesshouldhitrockbottomonThanksgivingDay,
whereconsumerswillsnaganaveragediscountof27percent.Soifyouareoneof
the45percentofconsumerswhocansneakawayinbetweenfootballgamesand
familytimetoclickaway,youllberewarded.
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IfshoppingonThanksgivingevenfromtheprivacyofyourhomedoesntsit
wellwithyou,trytheMondaybeforeThanksgiving,whichhasbeenagoodoption
tobeattherushandstillgetdeals.Adobealsofoundthatthebesttimetobuy
dependsonbothdiscountsandproductavailability,especiallyforhotselling
gifts.Infact,thisweekendisthebesttimetoshopfortoysandMondayisgood
forelectronics,thoughtheentireweekleadinguptoThanksgivingwilldeliver
bargains.
Andaquickwordaboutsecurityafteranumberofdatabreachesatsomeofthe
nation'stopretailers,manyareworriedaboutprotectingtheiridentitiesfrom
thieves.Expertssaythatwhenshoppinginastore,thesafestchoiceiscashatthe
checkoutcounter,butthattoohasrisk,becausewhoreallywantstoshopwith
wadsofcash?Forconvenience,creditcardsarethesafestoptionbecauseissuers
usuallyprovideprotectionagainststolen,damagedorlostitems.Additionally,if
creditcardinformationisstolenorcompromised,yourliabilityisminimized,
whereasadebitcardthiefcoulddrainyourbankaccountbeforeyounotice.
Finallyduringthistime(andalways),carefullyreviewyourcreditcardstatements
assoonasyoureceivethemtomakesuretherearentanyunauthorizedcharges.
Ifthereisadiscrepancy,callyourbankandreportitimmediately.Ifyouthink
thatyourinformationhasbeencompromisedorthatyouhavebeenavictimof
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identitytheft,gototheFTCwebsiteforstepbystepinstructionsaboutwhatyou
needtodo.

Holidays, RetailSales, ECommerce

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GregoryFerenstein

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EditoratFerensteinWire

HowSiliconValleyMadeBigCityHousingThe
CauseofandSolutionToInequality(In9Visuals)
Nov21,2015

58,737views

799Likes

105Comments

SanFranciscoisalivingcrystalballofwhathappenswhenacityrefusestobuild
enoughhousingtoaccommodatethedenseclusteringofhightechandservice
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workersnaturaltomodernindustries.
Themedianrentofa2bedroomapartmenthasskyrocketedabove$3,500a
monthandover12,000residentshavebeenevictedfromtheirhomes.Allthe
while,theMayorsofficehasdangledpriceycarrotsfortechcompaniestokeep
theirheadquartersinSanFrancisco,aftertheindustrysmassiveprofitshelped
residentsweathertherecessionwithanenviousemploymentrateof4.8%anda
2%increaseinwages.
Oneofthetechnologyindustrysmostsignificanttransformationsofmodernlife
snuckupsoslowlythatitwashardlynoticeable:themigrationofjobstobigcities
andthecorrespondingneedtotransformsuburbanneighborhoodsintohighrise
metropolises.
Indeed,a26yearoldMITeconomistrecentlyturnedheadswithanalysis
showingthatalmostallincomeinequalitygrowthoverthelasthalfcenturycan
beblamedontherisingshareofwagesspentonhousing(climbinganastounding
20%in15years,from25%to30%ofincome).

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Source:BrookingsInstitute
Ofcourse,noteverycitysuffersfromhightechgrowth.BerkeleyEconomist
EnricoMoretticreditsSeattleforbluntingtheforcesofinequalitybysupporting
theirtechhubwithasurgeinnewapartments.

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(Datahere)
Tobesure,thistrendisntnew.For5000yearsofrecordedhistory,citieshave
formedpreciselytoaccommodatedenselyclusteredhighskilledlaborpoolsthat
thriveoninnovativeideas,fromthemerchantsofancientAthenstotheprinting
industryoftheRenaissanceinParis.
Manyofthemostadvancedcapitalsineachepochofhumanhistorylikewisehad
toinventnewwaystohousethefloodofcitizensseekingemployment.Romes
famousmultistoryinsulaapartmentsarenotsodissimilartomoderncondos.

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Source:Wikipedia
Nowthatthetechnologyindustryisadominanteconomicforcedensecitieshave
becomebothamajorcauseofandasolutiontogrowinginequality.Densityis
poppingupallovertheworld,ofteninunwelcomeplaces.Suburbanenclaves,
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blindsidedbytechboomshaveresistedtransformingtheirquaintneighborhoods
intobigcities.

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But,Austin,Denver,andBrooklynsoldersuburbancounterpart,SanFrancisco
mayshowthatthetwinforcesofeconomicequalityanddensityaretoodifficultto
resist.

SanFranciscoAtTheBreakingPoint
Nocityhasexperiencedtherollercoasterhighsoftechwealthandlowsofhousing
scarcitylikeSanFrancisco.Asthecityreachesabreakingpoint,itisseeking
radicalmeasurestoallowmorehousing.
Tosimulatehowsuburbsaroundthecountrymayeventuallyacquiescetocitylife,
Iattainedthefirsteconomicandvisualsimulationofhowmanyapartment
buildingsSanFranciscomightneedtoconstructinordertobeaffordableto
medianincomehouseholds*.
A1%increaseinhousingstockresultsina10%reductioninprice,allelsebeing
equal,concludesMarkZandi,ChiefEconomistattheinfluentialfinancial
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institution,Moodys(parentcompanyoftheratinggroup).Heestimatesthatthe
entireBayAreamayneedtoatleast130,000moreunitsinordertobothremain
affordableandhouseallofthetechjobs.
Afterconstructingasimulationbasedonthismodel,IaskedlongtimeSan
Franciscoresidentsasimplequestion:wouldtheyratherSanFranciscobea
ManhattanlikecitywithaffordablerentsorshouldSiliconValleyhousetheir
employeeselsewhereandbuildtheirowncitysomewherefaraway.
ReactionsofthelongtimeSanFranciscoresidentstotheseimages(below)tella
storyofthosewhohavelivedthroughthebenefitsofatechboomandworrywhat
mighthappeniftechmoneyleavesthecity.

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Credit:AlfredTwu
HereswhatthefamousMissionneighborhoodwilllooklikeatstreetlevelview.

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AlfredTwu

Stackingawayghettos
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IliketallSanFranciscowithamixofsocioeconomicclassesitshealthyfor
everyonewedontwantghettoareas.~SanFranciscanof15years,Mission
Districtresident,Colombianmigrant.
Oneofthemostcomprehensivestudieseverdoneoninequalityandeconomic
mobilityfoundoutthatsuburbansprawlisakeyfactorinfinancialdisparity.
HarvardsRajChettyandhisteamdiscoveredthattheaveragechildgrowingup
inSanFranciscowillmake$1,760moreasadultthaniftheylivedinthenearby
commutingzoneofAlamedaCounty.
Evenwithskyhighinequality,SanFranciscoboastsofthenationshighestsocial
mobilityforchildrenbornintothepoorestincomebracket.Whentherichandthe
poorusethesameschools,police,hospitalsandstreets,ghettosareheldatbay.

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RichResidentsMakeForHighEmploymentAndWages
Ilovethechanges.Why?Morepeoplemorebusiness.saysaHispanic
resident,whohasbeensellingclothesonthestreetsoftheMissionDistrictfor20
years.Sheestimatesthattechmigrationhasboostedprofitsby20%.Ofcourse,
tallerbuildings.
Citiesmayseemexpensive,butsuburbanareasarefarmorecostly.Eschewingthe
jobopportunitiesofacitymeansgivingupbetween1040%ofonesincome.
Economistsfindthathousingpricesdropproportionatelywithwages,thefarther
onelivesfromalargemetro.SincetheaverageAmericanspendsabout30%of
his/herincomeonrent,anapartmentinruralWisconsincouldcosthundreds(or
thousands)ofdollarsmorewhenfactoringinwages.

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Ouranalysissuggeststhatthetechsectorisresponsibleforthevastmajorityof
theeconomicgrowthinSanFranciscosince2010,saidSanFranciscosChief
Economist,TedEgan.In20102012,thelatestyearwehavecompletedatalocal
inflationhasbeen2.6%,whilethewagesforallworkershaveincreasedby4.5%.
Why?BerkeleyEconomistEnricoMorettifindsthatSiliconValleyemploymentis
aneconomicsupermultiplier:everytechemployeecreates5newjobsinthearea
(comparedtomanufacturingindustrieswhichonlycreatetwo).Techindustries
notonlyclusterhighskillworkers,butthelegalandserviceworkersthatkeep
theiremployeescodingallnightlong.

NoCities?Commute
Thealternative(Californiascurrentsolution)iscommuting,astechcompanies
andtheirtensofthousandsofemployeesarescatteredthroughoutthepeninsula,
forcedtofindshelteranywheretheycan.

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TheBayAreasuffersfromoneoftheworstcommutesinthecountry.For
decades,SiliconValleyssuburbshaverefusedtoaccommodatehighrise
apartmentsfortechworkersandtheirmassivecampuses,whichhaveslowlybeen
pushedupnorth,fromSanJosetoSanFrancisco.

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Itisdifficulttooverstatethenastyimpactsofcommutingonthemind,body,and
family:residentswithoveranhourofcommutingsufferdramaticdropsinsleep,
exercise,andrelationships.

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Commutinghurtsthepoorandminoritiesmost,whohavebeenpushedaway
fromjobsastheratetripledthenationalaverage[PDF].InCalifornia,one
Stanforddiningemployeedescribeswakingupat3amforhis80miletocommute
eachday.

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EndofGovernmentSupportforSuburbs
BothCaliforniaandtheObamaadministrationhavecomeunderfireforpolicies
thatpunishrestrictivesuburbanzoningasasolutiontoracialandeconomic
inequality.
Itstimethefederalgovernmentstoppedencouragingsprawlwelearnedfrom
thehousingcrisisthathomeownershipisnotforeveryone,saidFormerHousing
andUrbanDevelopmentSecretary,ShaunDonovan,whoseadministration
supportedthecontroversialBayAreaplan,whichcalledforupwardsof68%of
newdevelopmenttobecondostyledensity.
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CaliforniaDeclaresWarOnSuburbia,wentaWallStreetJournalHeadline.But,
Californiamaybechargingaheadwithanew,moreurbanizedpathanyways.
Alloptionsneedtobeonthetable.Ifataller,denserSanFranciscowillmakethe
citymoreaffordable,thenitstimewestudyhowtomakethathappen,Says
MissionDistrictSupervisorDavidCampos,whohas,inthepast,supportedsome
ofthemostrestrictivezoninglawsinSanFranciscohistory.ForCampos,density
maybetheonlywayhisresidentscankeeptheirhomes.
Camposmaybereadingthepoliticaltealeavescorrectly:Iranasmallzipcode
targetedpublicopinionpollshowingsimulationsofatallerSanFranciscoto
respondentsandfoundthataslight(statisticallyinsignificant)majorityof
residentssupportaManhattanlikecitylandscapeifitmeantaffordability(data
here).
AsAmericareachesacrisispoint,itportendsafuturewhere,forthesakeof
equality,humanitywillbecomeamoreurbanizedspecies.
Indeed,onedemibillionaire,ZapposCEOTonyHsieh,hasspenthispersonal
fortunefiguringouthowtodesignacityforoptimaldensity,allocating$350Mto
transformdowntownLasVegasintoamodelfortheworld.
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Citychampionsarguethatwewilllookbackonsuburbansprawlasanaberration
inhumanhistory.AsHarvardEconomistEdwardGlaeserpredicts:

Isuspectthatinthelongrun,thetwentiethcenturyfling
withsuburbanlivingwilllook,justlikethebriefageofthe
industrialcity,morelikeanaberrationthanatrendour
culture,ourprosperity,andourfreedomareallultimately
giftsofpeopleliving,working,andthinkingtogetherthe
ultimatetriumphofthecity.

ThispostispartofaseriesonSiliconValleyspoliticalendgamefromthe
FerensteinWire.Seeallavailablechaptershere.Formorestoriesonthisseries
clickheretobenotifiedassoonaschaptersbecomeavailable.

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