A Sukhoi Su-25 jet fighter flies during a drill at the Russian southern Stavropol region,

March 12, 2015. (crdit photo: REUTERS/Eduard Korniyenko)

Russian, Israeli jets share Syrian skies ... for now

Par: Ben CaspitMis en ligne novembre 2, 2015
Israel and Russia are acting like two lions on the African savanna. One, the younger
one, rules the territory. He is used to walking around freely and doing almost anything he
pleases without disturbance. Suddenly another lion appears on the scene, more mature,
stronger, far more powerful. The two lions warily eye one another. Neither wants to get
involved in a squabble that might inflict harm. The territory is large enough for them both,
and their interests are not necessarily incompatible. They decide on a cold peace kind of
coexistence involving a certain amount of coordination in the joint territory. What we see
now is how these two lions circle each other, checking out the others alertness and vigilance,
sniffing, setting out boundaries, checking each others responses, trying to determine the
rules of the game.
Rsum Imprimer Russia's military involvement in Syria is testing its relations with Israel
and the determination of both countries to avoid a conflict.
ParBen CaspitMis en ligne novembre 2, 2015
This is how a Western diplomat stationed in the Middle East and speaking on condition of
anonymity described what is going on between Israel and Russia regarding events in Syria.
According to foreign reports, on Oct. 30 the Israeli air force attacked Syrian army and
Hezbollah targets on Syrian territory. Over the last two weeks, the Russians are regularly
striking rebel targets throughout Syria. Some of these strikes take place in the Syrian Golan
Heights, not far from the Israeli border. One of the attacks almost reached the border zone; it
took place in the Daraa region, about six miles from the border between Israel and Syria.

Russia is using these airstrikes to test Israels nerves. Israeli policy is clear: Its air force
intercepts every plane or aerial object that reaches Israels border line, without asking too
many questions. What will happen if Russian fighter planes accidentally cross this line? No
one in the Israel Defense Forces is willing to answer this question.
To relieve the tension, Israelis like to recall the aerial battles above the Suez Canal during the
war of attrition between Israel and Egypt. During one of these fights in July 1970, the Israeli
air force downed five MiG-21s flown by Soviet pilots. No one in Israel wants to return to
those old days; nevertheless, the situation is not simple. According to foreign reports, Israel's
strike against Syrian army and Hezbollah targets was designed to stake out its territory and
also to clarify to the Russians that even if they are present now, Israel will continue to defend
its interests. About a month ago, after Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed concern
regarding Israels strikes in Syria, Defense Minister Moshe (Bogie) Yaalon said, I propose
that [no one] tries to test us.'' Ya'alon noted that the Israeli activity is not coordinated with
Russia and said, ''We have interests, and when [these interests] are threatened, we take action,
and we will continue to do so, and this was also spelled out to the Russian president.''
Since then, a widely publicized meeting was held Oct. 7 between Russian Deputy Chief of
Staff Nikolai Bogdanovski and Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, Israels deputy chief of staff. At the
meeting, it was declared that coordination would be established between the two states.
What, exactly, will this look like? As far as we know, it's not a telephone hotline open 24/7 or
anything like that. Instead it is a form of general coordination, superficial and irregular. When
the Russians strike near the Israeli border, Israel receives (according to military sources) a
general idea about the strike. No list of targets is given, no bombing sites, no exact regions.
And when Israel strikes near the border after shooting trickles over from the other side? We
dont coordinate our assaults, said a senior military source on condition of anonymity. We
dont need to get permission to defend our immediate interests. We live here, this is our
border and we operate just as we have done until now. Our red lines are clear and we have no
intentions of changing them.
In the contacts between Israel and Russia, the sides focused on finding a formula to lower
the potential for friction between them. The intent was to reach maximum actualization of
the interests of both sides with minimum coordination. In other words, we are talking about
"polite" coordination: not detailed, not immediate, not operational. There is no division of
landmarks on a map, no picking up a telephone half an hour before an assault. The skies are
large, theres enough room for everyone, a high-ranking Israeli military source told AlMonitor on condition of anonymity. Nevertheless, both sides are aware that conflicts of
interest exist between the air forces of Israel and Russia. There are also minefields planted
between the sides.
The big question asked in Jerusalem is how much Putin is willing to invest in Syria. Will he
be sucked into the vast Syrian vacuum, or limit himself to what is happening now, more or
less? A very high-ranking Israeli military source said on condition of anonymity a few weeks
ago, There is definitely the possibility that Syria will turn into Russias Vietnam. He
stopped to think for a minute, then added, In fact, you dont even need the Vietnam
example. Russia had its own Afghanistan. They know very well what extremist Islam really
is.
Putins interests are antithetical to what most of the Israeli defense system want to happen: At
this point, Israel continues to view the Shiite axis of evil, from Tehran through Damascus and

up to Beirut, as the main threat to Israel and the entire region. Therefore, Putins efforts to tilt
the balance in the Syrian battlefield together with the Iranians comes at the expense of
Israels security needs. On the other hand, no one in Israel is getting too agitated yet. Irans
Revolutionary Guard Corps have suffered several harsh defeats at the hands of the Islamic
State in the last two weeks, they say in Israel. It could be that Russian involvement will, all in
all, equalize the battlefield and freeze the bloody stalemate. And this would be viewed by
Israel as a positive development.
One way or the other, the two lions running circles around each other on that African
savanna continue to try to set the rules of the game on the fly. Israel does not exclude the
possibility that the Russians will declare a no-fly zone for most of the skies above Syria, and
will enforce it by erecting batteries of anti-aircraft S-300 missiles in the sea off the Syrian
coast. This kind of development could happen even without an official declaration. The
Israeli air force could simply realize that certain areas are covered by S-300s. Will the sides
challenge one another? In such a case, the rules of the game would be redefined. Russia could
assume the stance of superpower and try to show Israel, a much smaller and weaker country,
whos boss. Such a development could throw down the gauntlet to all the players on the
hemorrhaging Middle East chessboard.
At this stage, the assessment is that the chances are low for such a scenario to emerge. As of
the evening of Nov. 1, Putins first priority is to decipher the mystery of the Russian civilian
airliner that crashed in Sinai on Oct. 31. Almost all the players hope that it will emerge that
this was not the result of an IS terror attack everyone except for IS itself.