CHAPTER 3

3.1

LOW FLOW ANALYSIS

General
The purpose of the low flow analysis is to provide a general idea about the
hydrological condition of the Bengawan Solo River basin based on the available
climatic and hydrological records at the hydro-meteorological observation
network stations. The low flow analysis was carried out to estimate the low flow
conditions at an arbitrary location in the CDMP study area including Bengawan
Solo River system. The estimated low flow conditions are essential for the water
demand and supply balance calculation from the viewpoint of water supply
assessment.
A natural runoff is usually necessary for the water demand and supply balance
calculation. The natural runoff is defined as the river runoff that is not affected by
any water uses in a catchment area. The continuous natural flow is also necessary
in a time sequence of more than 20 years. The natural flow is principally obtained
based on the observed discharges with some adjustment to eliminate the
influences due to water uses.
The observed Bengawan Solo River discharges are subject to various river
structures such as dams, intake weirs, irrigation pumping stations, etc.
Furthermore, the available runoff records are more or less interrupted due to
lacking of observation (see Fig.3.1.1 of the observed daily discharge hydrographs
at Jurug, Ketonggo and Babat station and Table 3.1.1 of the monthly mean
observed discharge at major river water level gauging stations).
For the low flow analysis, it has been decided to model the hydrological process
of the basin using a computer model.
The low flow analysis and overall work flow of master planning for this study is
schematically shown as follows:

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Water Usage
Data

Hydrological
Data
Groundwater
Level
Obs.Data

River W.L.
Obs. Data
Discharge
Obs. Data

Rainfall
Obs. Data

Climate
Obs. Data

Rainfall
Analysis

Penman
Method

Rainfall
Data

Evapotranspiration
Data

Unit Water
Requirement

Hydrogeological Data

Cropping
Pattern

Domestic
Water Use

Irrigation
Water Use

Industry
Water Use

Major
River Water
Facilities
(Dam,Weir)
Operation
Record

Maps

Soil
Hydraulic
Data

Topographic
Map

Geological
Data

Land use
Map
Soil
Map

H-Q Curve

Discharge
Data

GWL
Data

Verification
Data

Groundwater
Pump Up
Data

Surface Water
Intake Data

Geological
Map

Dam Operation
Data

Data 2
(Water Usage)

Data 1
(Rain & Ev)

Basic Data
(Present Condition)

Data 3
(Topo & Geo)

Sub-Basin Block
Division

Development of
Low Flow Analysis
Model (PLUMP)
Setting & Tuning
of Parameters

Evaluation of
Sim. Results
Data 1
(Rain & Ev)

Data 3
(Topo & Geo)

NO

OK

Completion of
Low Flow Analysis
Model

Basic Data
(Natural Condition)
Estimation of
Natural Flow
Regional
Plan, etc

Water Demand

Geological
Conditions

Water Supply Plan

(for Agriculture, domestic,

Industry, Water quality)

(Dam, Reservoir, Weir

Groundwater use, etc.)
NO

Water
Balance

NO
OK

Environmental
Impact

Cost & Benefit

Estimation

(Natural & Socio)

NO

NO

Evaluation

Note)

OK

: Process Component of Low Flow Analysis.

Alternative Selected of
Priority Projects
Implementation
Programming
Management
Plan

LEDGEND
: Documents of Data
: Data (Input Data)
: Data Sets for Model
: Preparation/Analysis
: Predefine Process
: Decision
:Other Process

Master Plan for

CDMP Study Area

Low Flow Analysis and Overall Work Flow of Mastre Planning

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3.2

Low Flow Analysis Model

3.2.1

Comparison of Major Low Flow Analysis Model

Variety of runoff models have been developed and applied for runoff analysis.
Table 3.2.1 shows the comparison of typical computer models for runoff analysis
in view of model applicability and computer capacity required. As seen, the
existing runoff analysis models are classified below:
Runoff
Analysis
Model

Flood Analysis Model

Low flow
Analysis Model

(Rational formula, Unit-graph,

Storage function, etc.)
Concentrate model (Tank model, etc.)
Lumped model
(SWMM, PLUMP, etc.)
Distributed model (SHE, IHDM, etc.)

For the low flow analysis, the Tank model is generally applied to natural river
basins. However the Tank model is not suitable for the basin where the land use
condition has changed due to urbanization. Parameter values of Tank model are
required for adjustment according to the change of land uses. It was assessed that
the Tank model was not recommendable for the low flow analysis of the
Bengawan Solo River basin duly because of recent urbanization in the basin,
seasonal land uses in the cultivated area, active exploitation of groundwater, and
various water uses in the basin for irrigation and domestic purposes.
Based on the requirement of this study, a distributed numerical model is the most
suitable. However considering the data availability as well as the time limitation,
it was decided to use a lumped parameter model capable for simulating the
hydrological processes. Model parameters are physically determined (see Table
3.2.2 of the comparison of low flow analysis models).
The Bengawan Solo natural flow was estimated applying a state-of-the-art
simulation model, called the Physically based Lumped Parameter (PLUMP)
model. The analysis procedure is briefly explained below.
3.2.2

PLUMP Model

(1)

General
The PLUMP model was originally developed by Dr. Herath, Dr. Mushiake of
Tokyo University, Japan and Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. in 1992, to forecast the
changes to the main components of basin-scale hydrological cycle due to the
construction of new town and to evaluate the effect of different remedial schemes

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representing infiltration and storage facilities and groundwater routing. This

simulation model is also able to apply to a river basin where human activities on
nature, such as irrigation development and urbanization in the Bengawan Solo
River basin, are changing the catchment condition.
(2)

Hydrological process considered for modeling

General hydrological process in the river basin is schematically shown below.
Rainfall

Paddy/Fishpond
Evapotranspiration

Pervious Area
(forest etc.)

Pervious Area
(crop field)

Impervious Area

Intake
Surface Runoff
Surface Soil

Unsaturated Zone

Groundwater
Pump Up

Infiltration
Unconfined Groundwater
Aquifer (Saturated Zone)

Subsurface
(Inter) flow

Richarge to River

Confining Bed
Leakage to Deep Aquifers

Confined G.W. Aquifer

Hydrological Cycle in the River Basin

Figure below shows the hydrological process in a catchment that is incorporated
into the PLUMP model.
Evapotranspiration

Rainfall

Sub surface runoff

Infiltration
Surface runoff
Ground
water le
vel

Unconfined
groundwater flow

Leakage to deep aquifer

Hydrological Process Modelled

The entire river flow consists of the surface flow, sub-surface flow from adjoining
mountainous areas, and unconfined groundwater flow. There is no recharge to the

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river flow from the confined aquifer when the aquifer water level (unconfined
groundwater level) is lower than the river bed level.
(3)

Model description
The hydrological process in a catchment (basin flow) described above is
schematically simplified for modeling dividing into the upper soil layer (soil
moisture storage) and the lower underlying aquifer (groundwater) as shown
below.
This model component of basin flow constitutes the unit of the PLUMP model.
As shown below, the model developed is a combination of process and storage
type of modeling. It implements the hydrological process in storage components
using the soil hydraulic parameters.
Rainfall
Surface
flow in

Evapotranspiration

Sub Surface
flow in

Surface
flow out

Moisture Block

Sub Surface
flow out
Recharge to
groundwater

Supply from
groundwater

Groundwater
flow in
Groundwater Block
Leakage

Groundwater
flow out

Components of the Hydrological Processes Modelled

Continuous observations of soil moisture variation at different soil depths in

humid climates show that at a depth of about 1.5 m-2.0 m the moisture content is
almost constant throughout the year (Mushiake et al., 1987). The moisture content
from this depth down to the vicinity of unconfined groundwater remains at a
constant value termed as field moisture capacity. The transfer between the
groundwater and upper moisture storage takes place in unsaturated conditions
where groundwater is sufficiently low. The upper soil moisture storage mainly
takes part in the hydrological changes.

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With this background a catchment is represented by a number of interacting layers

in vertical direction for the purpose of hydrological simulations. These layers
represent the surface and sub-surface layer, unconfined groundwater and confined
groundwater.
On the horizontal plane, basin area is divided into a number of sub-basin-blocks
based on the soil hydraulic properties (soil type), topography, geology. The
lumped hydrological responses are modeled in each block by means of various
hydraulic equations. If the basin is sub-divided using many blocks, it is possible
to represent more spatial variations in the basin model.
(4)

Computation procedure
The computation flow of hydrological process in the PLUMP model component is
schematically shown below.
Rainfall
Impervious
Area

Evaporation

Evapotranspiration

Pervious Area
Surface
retention
Infiltration capacity

Surface flow
Excess
Surface
retention

Top Soil
Groundwater
recharge

Sub surface flow

River
Flow

Groundwater flow

Unconfined
Groundwater
Confining layer
Leakage

Catchment Simulation Procedure

Input to each surface layer is computed as summation of rainfall and surface flow
from adjoining blocks (for the Bengawan Solo River basin model, surface flow
from adjoining blocks is assumed to be zero). If the surface block includes paddy
field or fish pond, water abstraction (irrigation water) is also added the above

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summation. This input is then scaled with respect to the block area and the new
surface flow and the infiltration components are computed.
The main equations are described below.

Notation
mark
area

description

unit
km
day

K0

description
Saturated conductivity

unit
cm/sec

Unsaturated conductivity

cm/sec

mm/day

kr

Relative conductivity

cm/sec

Area (km2)

Time step in model (=1 day)

Rainfall (block mean)

mark

D in

Surface flow (Direct runoff) in

m /s

Suction pressure

cmH2O

D out

Surface flow (Direct runoff) out

m /s

Suction pressure at wilting point

cmH2O

Irr

Irrigation water supply in

Specific density of water

Per

Percolation from surface to top soil

m /s
mm/day

Soil moisture content

cm /cm

IR (imp)

Surface depression stotrage in

Impurvious area (< 2mm day)

mm/day

Residual moisture content

cm /cm

Storage

Saturated moisture content

mm

Effective saturation

Arbitrary parameter of Haverkamp et

al's model

n
area (river)

m /s

m /s

L max(river) ,
L min(river),

m /s

W (river)

Width of river

W (block )

Width of this block

GWL n

Groundwater level at this block

El.m

GWL lower

Groundwater level at lower block

El.m

GWL max ,
GWL min

Max.&Min. Limit of the G.W. level for

groundwater flow to the river

El.m

m /s
mm/day
3

Groundwater flow from upper block

m /s

Gwf out

Groundwater flow out to next block

Dis toRiver

Distance to river from center of GW

m /s
m /s

Dis toBlock Distance to next lower GW tank

i)

- do Parameter of Mualem's model

Contact area of riverbed with GW
Length of contact area of riverbed with
GW
Max & Min limit of the length of
contact area of riverbed with GW

m /s
deg.

Gwf in

Leakage to deep confined GW

L (river)

m
m
m
m

Equation for the surface

[Water balance at the Surface]

The water balance at the surface is expressed as,
Din R Irrin Per Dout Ev
Inflow Din R Irrin

(3.2.1)
(3.2.2)

where
Din Din ( imp ) Din ( prv ) Din ( paddy )

(3.2.3)

Irrin Irrin ( prv ) Irrin ( paddy )

(3.2.4)
Per Per( prv ) Per( paddy )

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m /s

Horizontal sub-surface flow

(interflow) in from upper block

Leak

Storage coefficient

f in

Baseflow Groundwater flow to river

Se

Dunne mechanism Surface flow

rech

Hortonian mechanism Surface flow

Dun

Sub-surface flow (Interflow) out

Slope of the interflow
Pump up of groundwater
Recharge to unconfined groundwater
(frol top soil)

cm /cm
-

Hor

f out
Slope
Pump

(3.2.5)

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Dout Dout ( imp ) Dout ( prv ) Dout ( paddy )

(3.2.6)
(3.2.7)

Ev Ev( imp ) Ev ( prv ) Ev ( paddy )

The surface flow (direct runoff) is divided into that generated by the impervious
area, pervious area and paddy field or fish pond area (see Equation 3.2.6).
[Surface flow from the Impervious area]
If the input to the impervious area is higher than the depression storage of the
impervious area, surplus will overflow as a direct runoff.
Dout ( imp ) R

area ( imp )
area ( block )

IR( imp )

dS ( imp )

(3.2.8)

dt

[Surface flow from the Pervious area]

The surface flow generation from pervious areas includes paddy field and fish
pond areas results from two mechanisms:
a) If rainfall intensity is higher than the saturated conductivity of top soil, the
surplus will overflow as a surface runoff (Hortonian mechanism 1). In case of
paddy field, irrigation water is also added to the rainfall intensity.
b) The groundwater level rises due to infiltration caused by rainfall. When the
groundwater level reaches the surface level, surface runoff will occur (Dunne
mechanism2). In case of paddy field, irrigation water including groundwater
abstraction is also added to the rainfall intensity.
In the computational scheme, first the maximum infiltration that can take place is
computed, and from that the Hortonian flow is estimated. Then, after computing
water balance of the soil moisture layer, overflow due to Danne mechanism is
estimated.
The mechanisms of Hortonian and Dunne are schematically shown below.
Rain

Rain

MOISTURE CONTENT (%)

Dry

t1

t2

t3

Dry

SATURATED

Wet

t4

TIME

t1

MOISTURE CONTENT (%)

t2

t3

SATURATED

t4

Wet

t5

t5

t4

TIME

D E PT H (m )

DEPTH (m)

t5

t3

MOISTURE PROFILE

t2

MOISTURE PROFILE

Hortonian Mechanism
(Surface flow starts at t4)

Dunn Mechanism
(Surface flow stars at t5)

G.W. Level

G.W. Level
at t1

Horton, R. E. (1933): "The role of infiltration in the hydrologic cycle". Am. Geophys., Union,
Trans., 14, pp.446-460.
Dunne, T., Black, R. D. (1970): "An experimental investigation of runoff production in permeable
soils", Wat. Resour. Res., 6, pp.478-490.

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D( prv ) Hor( prv ) Dun( prv )

(3.2.9)
Hor( prv ) Inflow( prv ) Permax( prv ) *

area ( prv )

(3.2.10)

area ( block )

Dun ( prv ) S soil ( prv ) S max( prv ) Inflow( prv ) f in ( prv )

f out ( prv ) Hor( prv ) E ( prv ) rech ( prv )

(3.2.11)

Permax( prv ) K 0 S max( prv ) S soil ( prv )

(3.2.12)
Inflow( prv ) Din ( prv ) R Irr( prv )

(3.2.13)

[Surface flow from the Paddy field or fish pond]

D( paddy ) Hor( paddy ) Dun ( paddy )

Hor( paddy ) Inflow( paddy ) Permax( paddy ) *

(3.2.14)
area ( paddy )
area ( block )

(3.2.15)
Dun ( paddy ) S soil ( paddy ) S max( paddy ) Inflow( paddy ) f in ( paddy )
f out ( paddy ) Hor( paddy ) E ( paddy ) rech ( paddy )
Permax( paddy ) K 0 S max( paddy ) S soil ( paddy )

(3.2.17)
(3.2.18)

Inflow( paddy ) Din ( paddy ) R Irr( paddy )

ii)

(3.2.16)

Equation for the top soil moisture storage

[Water balance at top soil moisture tank]

The water balance in the top soil moisture tank is given by,
f in Per f out rech

dS soil
dt

(3.2.19)

where
f in f in ( prv ) f in ( paddy )
f out f out ( prv ) f out ( paddy )
rech rech ( prv ) rech ( paddy )

(3.2.20)
(3.2.21)
(3.2.22)

[Recharge to groundwater]
Recharge (infiltration) to groundwater from top soil will occur under the saturated
- unsaturated soil conditions. The time step of calculation in the model is hourly
(one hour each). Recharge (infiltration) to groundwater is expressed by,

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rech

t 24 hr , 1

k dt

(3.2.23)

t 0 hr , 0

[Sub-surface runoff]
The sub-surface runoff (interflow) component is next estimated from the
remaining moisture storage. In this model, the sub-surface runoff is assumed as a
component of unsaturated flow belongs slope. The time step of calculation in the
model is hourly (one hour each).
f out

t 24 hr , st

sin Slope k dt

t 0 hr , 0

(3.2.24)
[Richard's equation]
The saturated - unsaturated flow is estimated using Richards formula shown
below,

k y
k x

x
x
y
y

or k z C

1 C
k z
z
z
t

[Richards (1931)3]

(3.2.25)

where
C

d
d

(3.2.26)

Unsaturated hydraulic properties are divided into two basic relations, referred to
as the soil moisture content - suction ( ) relation (pF curves) and the soil
conductivity - suction ( k ) or the conductivity - moisture content ( k )
relations.
[ relation]
For the ( ) relation, Haverkamp et.al.'s formulas is applied shown below,
Se

4
[Haverkamp et.al (1977) ]
ln

(3.2.27)

where

Richards, L. A. (1931): "Capillary conduction of liquids though porous mediums". Physics, 1, pp.
318-333
Haverkamp, R., Vauclin, M., Touma, J., Wierenga, P. J. and Vachaud, G. (1977): "A comparison of
numerical simulation models for one dimensional infiltration", Soil Sci. Soc. Amer. J., Vol. 41, pp. 285294

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Se

r
0 r

[Averjanov (1950)5]

(3.2.28)

0 r
r

ln

or

0 r

exp

(3.2.29)
1

(3.2.30)

[ k relation]
For the ( k ) relation, Kozeny-Irmay's ( k r ) formulas is applied shown
below,
k r Se n

[Kozeny-Irmay (1954)6]
r
0 r

k r

(3.2.31)

(3.2.32)

The equation (3.2.32) is used to generate the ( k r ) relation from the ( )

relation in the absence of ( k ) data. The parameter n in the above relation is
estimated by the model of Mualem (1978), given by,
0

n 3 0.015

d [Mualem (1978)7]

(3.2.33)

The relative conductivity kr is expressed as,

kr

k
K0

(3.2.34)
Therefore the ( k ) relation is expressed by,
r
0 r

k K 0

(3.2.35)

[ k relation]
From equations of (3.2.29) and (3.2.35), the ( k ) relation is expressed by,
5

Averjanov, S. F., (1950): "About permeability of subsurface soil in case of incomplete saturation",
Eng. Collect., 7.
Irmay, S., (1954): "On the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils", Trans. Amer. Geophys.
Union, AGU., Vol. 35, pp. 463-467
Mualem, Y. (1978): "Hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated porous media: generalize macroscopic
approach", Water Resources Research, Amer. Geophys. Union, Vol. 114(2), pp.325-522.

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1
k K 0

ln

(3.2.36)

As mentioned, ( ) and ( k ) relations are required for analysis of

unsaturated domain flow problems. The ( ) relation measured from small
soil samples are generally representative for a given site, whereas the k
relation measured from small soil samples show a large field scatter and may not
be representative for a given site. Experience with field tests show that if the
k is expressed as k K 0 k r , the estimation of K0 from field tests is
sufficient to obtain a reliable and representative conductivity relation. The k r
is either measured from small samples or else is generated from the moisturesuction ( ) relation of the soil.
In the PLUMP model system, user specifies the available data for a given soil. If
none of these basic data are available, a suitable set if data are taken from the soil
database. This database contains about 90 different soil types at present including
the soil data described in the Mualem's catalogue 8. The parameters for each of the
representative soils are lists as follow.
Saturated Residual
Parameter of
Parameter of
Parameter Moisture Moisture Haverkamp Haverkamp
Content
Content
Relation Model
Relation Model
0
r

Soil Type cm3/cm3 cm3 /cm3

Sand
0.400
0.077
1.752E+10
16.95
Loam
0.422
0.104
6,451
5.56
Kanto loam
0.707
0.598
72.8
3.92
Clay
0.394
0.100
6.576E+07
9.00

Parameter n of
Mualem k
Relation Model
n
3.37
3.97
3.11
4.38

Source) Kanto Loam: Mushiake & Herath (1988), Others taken from the Mualem's catalogue (1976).

Above parameters of sand, loam and clay taken from Mualem's catalogue, and the
Kanto loam (volcanic product loam) was measured in Japan by the Tokyo
University9.
The ( ) relations (pF curves) of the representative soils are shown as follow.

Mualem, Y. [1976]: "A catalogue of the hydraulic properties of unsaturated soil", TECHNION,
Israel Institute of technology, Haifa Israel, Res.project 442, pp.100.
Mushiake, K. and Herath, S. [1988]: "Determination of hydraulic conductivity function using insitu permeability tests". Proc. 6th APD-IHAR Congress. Kyoto, Japan.

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pF
(Log Suction =log10 ())

6
5.4
4.8
4.2
3.6
3
2.4
1.8
1.2
0.6
0

sand
loam
K.loam
clay

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%
3

80%

90%

100%

Soil Moisture Content [%] or [cm /cm ]

Relation (pF Curve) of the RepresentativeSoil

(by Haverkamp's Equation)

iii)

Equation for the Groundwater Tank

For the groundwater, two types of unconfined groundwater process are

considered. The transfer between the groundwater and river water is assumed to
be linear for groundwater blocks discharging into the river. The discharging into
the river from groundwater tank is computed using contact area of riverbed with
groundwater, and the difference in height between groundwater level and river
water level. Whereas, the transfer between interconnecting groundwater blocks as
non-linear (Darcy's law10) are computed using the water head between the blocks.
[Water Balance in the G.W. tank]
C

GWf in
dS
rech
Pump GWf out Baseflow Leak
dt
area

(3.2.37)

[Groundwater outflow to the river]

Baseflow K 0 area ( riverbed )

GWLn GWLmin
DistoRiver

(3.2.38)

where
area ( riverbed ) L( river ) W( river )

L( river ) Lmin( river )

(3.2.39)

GWLn GWLmin
Lmax( river ) Lmin( river )
GWLmax GWLmin

(3.2.40)
[Groundwater flow to lower block]
Q=Ko*A*dh/dx
GWf out

[Darcy (1856)]
(3.2.41)
GWLn GWLlower GWL GWLlower
K 0 W( Block )

(3.2.42)
2
DistoBlock

[Leakage to deep groundwater]

10

Darcy, H. (1856): Les fontaines publiques de la ville de Dijon.In: "The theory of ground water
motion and related papers." By M. K. Hubbert, Hafner, New York, pp.305-311.

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Leak 0 (in this model, leakage is not considered)

(3.2.43)

Each block is simulated separately and forms a network representing the basin.
The number of components used to represent the basin depends on the number of
soil groups and the variations in topography as well as the degree of detail
expected.
3.3

Modeling of the Bengawa Solo River Basin

The PLUMP model was applied to the Bengawan Solo River basin with an area of
some 16,100 km2. The analysis procedure is as follows:

3.3.1

Basin division (sub-basin-block)

For the low flow analysis model, the entire Bengawan Solo River basin is divided
into 39 sub-basin-blocks based on the available topographical maps, soil maps and
hydro-geological information from various reports.
Following items are considered for the Sub-basin-block division.
a) River basin boundaries (such as the Bengawan Solo River basin, Upper Solo
River basin, Madiun River basin and Lower Solo River basin)
b) Confluence points with major tributaries (i.e. Kening, Dengkeng River, etc.)
c) Watershed boundaries of the key stations (major existing river discharge and
water level gauging stations)
d) Watershed boundaries of the existing water storing facilities (major dams and
intake weirs)
e) Topographic conditions (i.e. slope, catchment area, etc.)
f) Geological classification boundaries
g) Soil type classification boundaries
h) Administration boundary
i) Scale size of the sub-basin-block area
Figure 3.3.1 shows the location map of divided 39 sub-basin-blocks with several
information, and the respective catchment areas are listed in Table 3.3.1.

3.3.2

PLUMP model system diagram

The PLUMP model system diagrams was then constructed based on the divided
sub-basin-blocks considering the present overall water uses, especially the intersub-basin flow connections such as the surface flow, groundwater flow and return
flow of irrigation systems. Figures 3.3.2 and 3.3.3 shows the PLUMP model
system diagram of the Bengawan Solo River basin. The model component of a
sub-basin-block that is built in the PLUMP model is shown in Fig. 3.3.4.

NIPPON KOEI
March 2001
311582515.doc

3-14

CDMP Study
FINAL REPORT
SUPPORTING REPORT No. 1

3.3.3

Selection of key stations for calibration

Eleven river water level gauging stations were selected as the key station for
calibration of the PLUMP model parameters. Figure 3.3.5 presents the data
availability of river runoff records at the key stations. The location map of the key
stations is already shown in Fig. 3.3.1.

NIPPON KOEI
March 2001
311582515.doc

3-15

CDMP Study
FINAL REPORT
SUPPORTING REPORT No. 1