TableofContents

1. Introduction ......................................................................................... 3
1.1. Indian Automobile Industry.................................................................. 3
1.2. Indian Passenger Car market ............................................................... 3
2. Project Objective .................................................................................. 4
3. Factors Affecting Passenger Cars Demand ................................................ 5
3.1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ............................................................. 6
3.2. GDP Per Capita (GDP PC)..................................................................... 6
3.3. Prime Lending Rate (PLR) .................................................................... 7
3.4. Consumer Price Index (CPI) ................................................................. 8
3.5. Index of Industrial Production (IIP) ....................................................... 8
3.6. SENSEX ............................................................................................ 9
4. Car Manufacturers Need for Demand Forecasting .................................. 10
5. Methodology for Forecasting ................................................................. 10
5.1. Regression Models ............................................................................ 11
5.1.1. Simple Linear Regression (SLR) ................................................ 11
5.1.2. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) .............................................. 13
5.2. Exponential Smoothing Models ........................................................... 14
5.2.1. Simple EWS Model.................................................................. 14
5.2.2. EWS-Holt Model ..................................................................... 14
5.2.3. EWS-Holt Winters Model .......................................................... 15
5.3. Decomposition Models....................................................................... 16
5.3.1. Multiplicative Decomposition Model ........................................... 16
5.3.2. Additive Decomposition Model .................................................. 16
6. Analysis and Results ........................................................................... 17
7. Recommendation................................................................................ 18
8. Reference.......................................................................................... 19
9. Annexure .......................................................................................... 19

1.

Introduction

1.1. IndianAutomobileIndustry
The liberalization policy and various tax reliefs by the Govt. of India in recent years have
made remarkable impacts on Indian Automobile Industry. Indian auto industry is
currently growing at the pace of around 18 % per annum. Indias automotive industry is
now $34 billion worth and expected to grow $145 billion in another 10 years.

A well developed transportation infrastructure plays a key role in the development of an

economy, and India is no exception to it. With the growth of transportation infrastructure
the Automotive Industry of India is also growing at rapid speed. The automobile industry
in India is the ninth largest in the world with an annual production of over 2.3 million
units in 2008. The Indian automobile market is gearing towards international standards
to meet the needs of the global automobile giants and become a global hub. With
comparatively higher rate of economic growth rate index against that of great global
powers, India has become a hub of domestic and exports business. The automobile
sector has been contributing its share to the shining economic performance of India in
the recent years.

Category-wise share of Indian automobile market is given below.

1.2. IndianPassengerCarmarket
Over the last few decades. the car market in India have been in a burgeoning stage with
all types of cars flooding the market in order to meet the demands of Indian customer.
It is expected that by 2030, the Indian car market will be the 3rd largest car market
across the globe. The main encouraging factors for the success story of the car market in
India are the increase in the opportunity for new investments, the rise in the GDP rate,

the growing per capita income, growing middle-class population, and high ownership
capacity.

The liberalization policies followed by the Indian government had been inviting foreign
investors and manufacturers to invest in the car market in India. The booming software
sector in India has led to the rise in the income level and change in the lifestyle of the
Indian middle class. People have migrated from using two-wheelers to four-wheelers
thereby increasing the demand for different varieties of cars. Moreover, there are many
financing companies providing easy car loans at reasonable interest rates and affordable
installments.

The car Market in India is crowded with all varieties of car models like the small cars,
mid-size cars, luxury cars, super luxury cars, and sports utility vehicles. Among the
major players in cars, Maruti Udyog is the leader with around 52%, market share
followed by Hyundai Motors with 19% and Tata Motors with 16%. Other notable players
in this segment are Honda Siel, Ford and Mahindra.

Some of the other players in the market are Hindustan Motors, Fiat, Daimler Chrysler,
General Motors, Skoda Auto India Private Ltd., and Toyota. Since the demand for foreign
cars are increasing with time, big brands like Mercedes Benz, Aston Martin, Ferrari, and
Rolls-Royce have long since made a foray into the Indian car market.

2.

ProjectObjective

Considering the growth automobile industry in India, it is always a challenge to

forecast demand for passenger cars due to changing market conditions such as
higher GDP growth rate, entry of global players etc. However, forecasting plays
important role in planning business activities in the domains of marketing, sales
and production.

Our objective in this project is to come up with an accurate model for forecasting
monthly total car sales in India. For that we would develop forecasting models
using different methodologies and compare them for better accuracy. The

comparison would also help us in finding out appropriate forecasting methodology

by which the components of the past data are clearly explained.
3.

FactorsAffectingPassengerCarsDemand

The demand for automobiles is affected by a number of factors. The major factors
that influence the demand for cars are:
a) General business activity & national income (GDP)
b) The distribution of national income (GDPPC)
c) The cost of living
d) The psychological atmosphere (whether pessimistic or optimistic)
e) The extent & character of model changes
f) The age of cars in the hands of new car buyers
g) The no of cars scrapped
h) Financing terms
i) Used car prices

Superimposed on these factors influencing year to year changes in the level of

automobile demand are the factors which influence the distribution of sales within
a particular year are,
a) Seasonal variation
b) The dates of new model announcement & new model stimulus
c) The trend of general business activity & national income
d) New car stocks
e) Used car stocks & deliveries
f) Price change anticipation
g) Weather conditions
h) Abnormal interruption in production
i) Sales campaign for both used & new cars
j) The relative prosperity in different regions

In the next few pages we have described the different independent factors which
influence the demand of automobile to a large extent in the context of Indian car
manufacturers

3.1. PriorperiodGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)
A countrys GDP is the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a
country in a given year, equal to total consumer, investment and government spending,
plus the value of exports, minus the value of imports. Previous months GDP is related to
the consumers spending patterns. It has got a positive correlation with the demand
pattern of goods & services. The graph below indicates the Indian GDP(previous month)
& car sales in India over the years.

1,000,000
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000

GDP(RsCrores)

400,000

Sales(NoofCars)

300,000
200,000
100,000

1
0
r
p
A

1
0

p
eS

2
0

b
eF

2
0
l
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J

2
0
c
e
D

y
a
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3
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t
c
O

4
0
r
a
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4
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g
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5
0

n
aJ

5
0

n
Ju

5
0
v
o
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6
0
r
p
A

6
0

p
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7
0

b
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l
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c
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y
a
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8
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t
c
O

9
0
r
a
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9
0
g
u
A

Source: CMRI Database

From the above graph it is obvious that with increase in GDP (Previous month)
over the years the sales of cars also goes up which implies the demand for cars
has got a positive correlation with the GDP.

3.2. PriorperiodGDPperCapita(GDPPC)
An approximation of the value of goods produced per person in the country, equal to the
country's GDP divided by the total number of people in the country. GDPPC(Previous
month) also plays a vital role in the demand pattern. This is important in the context
because it factors in the population .The graph below indicates Indian per capita GDP &
car sales over the years

200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000

GDPpc(Rs)

80,000

Sales(NoofCars)

60,000
40,000
20,000

1
0
r
p
A

1
0

p
eS

2
0

b
eF

2
0
l
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2
0
c
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y
a
M

3
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tc
O

4
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r
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4
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g
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5
0

n
aJ

5
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n
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5
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v
o
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6
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r
p
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6
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p
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7
0

b
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c
e
D

y
a
M

8
0
tc
O

9
0
r
a
M

9
0
g
u
A

Source: CMRI Database

From the above graph it is obvious that with increase in GDPPC over the years
the sales of cars also goes up which implies the demand for cars has got a
positive correlation with the GDPPC.

3.3. PriorperiodPrimeLendingRate(PLR)
PLR is the interest rate charged by banks to their largest, most secure, and
creditworthy customers on short-term loans. This rate is used as a guide for
computing interest rates for other borrowers. Prime lending rate affects the
demand pattern of automobiles, because it affects the ability of the consumers for
repayment of loan.
200000

16

180000

14

160000

12

140000

10

120000

8
Sales(NoofCars)
6
PLR(%)
4

100000
80000
60000
40000

20000
0

0
1
0
r
p
A

1
0

p
eS

2
0

b
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2
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2
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3
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3
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p
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0

b
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8
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8
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9
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A

Source: CMRI Database

3.4. PriorperiodConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)
CPI examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and
services, such as transportation, food and medical care. The CPI is calculated by
taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and
averaging them; the goods are weighted according to their importance. Changes
in CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living. CPI
plays a vital role in deciding the demand pattern.

180000

120000

60000

180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Sales(NoofCars)
70
60
CPI
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0
r p b lu c y tc ra g n n v r p b lu c y tc ra g
p e e J e a
u a u o p e e J e a O
u
A S F
D M O M A J J N A S F
D M
M A

Source: CMRI Database

3.5. PriorperiodIndexofIndustrialProduction(IIP)
Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in simplest terms is an index which details out
the growth of various sectors in an economy. E.g. Indian IIP will focus on sectors
like mining, electricity, Manufacturing & General. Index of Industrial Production
(IIP), the magnitude of which represents the status of production in the industrial
sector for a given period of time as compared to a reference period of time. IIP
affects the sales pattern of cars.

350
180000

300
250

120000

200
Sales(NoofCars)
150
IIP(Index)

60000

100
50

0
1
0
r
p
A

1
0

p
eS

2
0

b
eF

2
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l
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2
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3
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8
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ya
M

8
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O

9
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r
a
M

9
0
g
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A

Source: CMRI Database

3.6. SENSEX(BSE30shareindex)
The Sensex is an indicator of all the major companies of the BSE. If the Sensex
goes up, it means that the prices of the stocks of most of the major companies on
the BSE have gone up. If the Sensex goes down, this tells that the stock price of
most of the major stocks on the BSE have gone down. Auto companies play a
major role in the increase or decrease of sensex. With the change in sensex the
demand & sales pattern of cars changes.
25000
180000
20000
120000

15000

60000

Sales(NoofCars)
10000
Sensex

5000
0

0
1
0
r
p
A

1
0
p
eS

2
0
b
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2
0
l
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2
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4
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5
0

n
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5
0
n
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5
0
v
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N

6
0
r
p
A

6
0
p
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7
0
b
eF

7
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l
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7
0
c
e
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8
0
y
a
M

8
0
tc
O

9
0
ra
M

Source: CMRI Database

9
0
g
u
A

The demand pattern is not only affected by the individual factors mentioned
above but also the combination of all of the factors. Our analysis would be to
estimate sales based upon the combined change of the above factors. The
previous month closing Sensex (30 share index) is used to capture the
sentiments of people.

4.

CarManufacturersNeedforDemandForecasting

Much of what happens in businesses today depends on what is going to happen in

the future. For example, if a car manufacturer is trying to make a decision about
developing a revolutionary new automobile, it would be nice to know whether the
economy is going to be in a recession or whether it will be booming when the
automobile is released to the general public. If there is a recession, consumers
will not buy the automobile unless it can save them money, and the manufacturer
will have spent millions or billions of dollars on the development of a product that
might not sell. With reduced trade barriers & globalisation, forecasting plays a
vital role in deciding the priorities of investment decision. It also gives different
perspectives to the said business. In short it makes the car manufacturers ready
for the future.

The short-term demand forecast helps in

x

Planning inventory

Planning production shifts

Planning temporary staff requirements

Planning working capital requirement

Estimating power requirement

Sending production schedules to suppliers

Introduction of upgraded car models etc.

5.

MethodologyforForecasting

In this project we have formulated forecasting models using different forecasting

methodologies to capture the dynamic patterns of dependant variable i.e. total

passenger cars sales with respect to dependent variables we have taken.

Our

models provide characterization of what will be the future monthly sales

conditional on the present and historical data. The forecasting models we have
built are:
x

Regression Models

Exponential Smoothing Models

Decomposition Models

5.1. RegressionModels
The regression model is a univariate/multivariate model in which dependent
variable is forecasted on the basis of its own history and histories of independent
variables. Though regressions models are called as causal or explanatory models
that an independent variable x causes dependent variable y, they are models of
correlation not causation. Regression models are trend extrapolation in general
with the assumption that the historic trend in the data is smooth and will continue
on its present course into the near future. Considering automotive industry a
mature market, there are no disruptive innovations influencing supply and
demand. Therefore historical data gives a fair representation of the future.

For our project we have taken Simple Linear Regression (SLR) and Multiple Linear
Regression (MLR) to forecast monthly car sales in India.
5.1.1.

Simple Linear Regression (SLR)

In the SLR model, we identified the mathematical relationship of monthly car

sales (dependent variable y) against individual explanatory variables: GDP
(Interpolates), GDP (Constant values), GDP per capita (Interpolated data), GDP
per capita (Constant value data) Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and Sensex
(30 share).

These variables exhibit a high correlation (> 0.9) with dependant variable.
Further, since these variables have a cause & effect relationship with the

dependant variable, we have individually regressed them with the dependant

variable.
The simple linear regression model is:
Yi =

Xi +

Where,

Yi = Car sales for the month i (dependent/response variable)

Xi = independent/explanatory variable taken for regression such as GDP
(interpolates)
0=

Y intercept

= slope of Y

= random error in Y for observation i

Using the SLR model, we found out the correlation coefficient (R2) that measures
the proportion of variation in monthly car sales (Y) that is explained by the
corresponding independent variable (X). The results are tabled below.

SimpleLinearRegressionresults
YVariable

XVariable


Totalcar
sales


GDP
(Interpolates)
GDP
(Constant
values)

Totalcar
sales


Totalcar
sales

Totalcar
sales

r


Intercept


Slope


r2


adjr2


DW


MAPE


0.9269

64514.18866

0.252394766

0.9273

62472.52141

0.250511521 0.866106562 0.864740302 1.692922524 19.77%


GDPper
capita
(Interpolated
data)
GDPper
capita
(Constant
valuedata)







0.9450

117759.5377

0.9257

114411.6946


0.8631917 0.861795697 1.806524468 19.83%









9.44125662 0.890909793 0.889796628 2.111273842 14.54%

9.538993836 0.841918938 0.840305866




Totalcar
sales





IIPIndex

0.9132


Totalcar
sales


Sensex(30
share)


0.8475





































70741.30491






1.92088688 11.14%




767.3983505 0.843102573 0.841501578 2.716235433 14.33%



47852.02592









5.964343526 0.718158075 0.715282137 0.778798044 20.76%

TheSLRofTotalcarsaleshasbeenstudiedwithdifferentindependentvariables
Theindependentvariablesincludedareonlytheoneswhichhavecause/effectrelationshipwithcarsales
TheminimumMAPEisidentifiedwithGDPpercapita(constantvalues)at11.14%

TheforecastofcarsalesforNov09asperaboveregressionis161408cars

5.1.2.

Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)

In MLR we used combination of two or more independent variables to predict the

monthly car sales. The MLR model is
Yi =
0=

X1i +

X2i +

3 X3i

+ .. +

Xki +

,where,

Y intercept

= slope of Y with variable X1, holding other variables X2, X3..Xk constant

= slope of Y with variable X2, holding other variables X1, X3..Xk constant

= slope of Y with variable X2, holding other variables X1, X2..Xk-1 constant

= random error in Y for observation i

The MLR models were developed with combination of various independent

variables including lag and dummy variables to find out a better model with least
error. The results are given below.
MultipleLinearRegressionResults
Sl
No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

Independentvariables
GDP,GDPpc,CPI
GDP,GDPpc,CPI,IIP
GDP,GDPpc,Sensex
GDP,GDPpc,IIP
GDP,GDPpc
GDP,GDPpc,Sensex,CPI,IIP
GDP,GDPpc,GDPpc^2
GDP,GDPpc,PLR
GDP,GDPpc,PLR,CPI,IIP

AdjustedRsquare
0.89691477
0.897087876
0.897299681
0.897550212
0.897964968
0.899914207
0.901823855
0.903299779
0.905462921

DW
2.174216231
1.915994089
2.19723
1.949424
2.172709
1.86475
2.32735199
2.394483
2.046039224

MAPE
16.23%
20.42%
15.83%
16.61%
15.74%
11.28%
18.59%
13.99%
17.79%

GDP,GDPpc,PLR,Sensex,CPI
10 IIP,Lag1month
11 GDP,GDPpc,PLR,Sensex,CPI,IIP

0.913655629

1.929379

2.43%

0.913948981

2.057502

2.24%

GDP,GDPpc,GDPpc^2,PLR
12 Sensex,CPI,IIP

0.913655629

2.052521452

1.42%

GDP,GDP^2,GDPpc,GDPpc^2,PLR
13 Sensex,CPI,IIP,Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4

0.911509161

2.143436

18.92%

GDP,GDPpc,GDPpc^2,PLR,Sensex,CPI,
14 IIP,Lag1month,Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4,GDP^2

0.92555644

2.249563388

4.56%

GDP,GDPpc,GDPpc^2,PLR,Sensex,CPI,
15 IIP,Lag1month,Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4

0.925609843

1.896998967

4.98%

5.2. ExponentialSmoothingModels
Exponential smoothing is a very popular scheme to produce a smoothed Time
Series. Unlike forecasts from regression models which use fixed coefficients,
forecasts from exponential smoothing methods adjust based upon past forecast
errors. Whereas in Moving Averages the past observations are weighted equally,
Exponential

Smoothing

assigns

exponentially

decreasing

weights

as

the

observation get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively
more weight in forecasting than the older observations. We have used the
following exponential smoothing models for the forecasting of car sales.
5.2.1. Simple EWS Model
This is called simple exponential weighted moving average is appropriate for
series that move randomly above and below a constant mean with no trend or
seasonal patterns. The forecasting for Y is
F1=Y1
Ft = WYt + (1-W)Ft-1,
t=2,3,
Ft= weighted average of actual observed Yt and its forecast Ft-1
=forecast for next period (t+1)
Simple EWS model estimates level at timet and do not capture trend or
seasonality. This model has a recursive structure hence at any timet, the new
time t estimate of the Level Ft is a function only of the previously computed
estimate Ft-1.
5.2.2. EWS-Holt Model
The EWS Holts method estimates both the current level and the current trend.
The forecast model is
L1= Y1, T1= 0
Lt= a*Yt+ (1-a)*(Lt-1+Tt-1) for t = 2, 3, 4, Tt= b*(Lt-Lt-1) + (1-b)*Tt-1
t = 2, 3, 4,
Ft= (Lt+ Tt) =forecast of Y for next period (t+1)

The parameters a and b control the smoothing of level and slope/trend

respectively.
5.2.3. EWS-Holt Winters Model
The Holt-Winters exponential smoothing is a widely used tool for forecasting
business data that contain seasonality, hanging trends and seasonal correlation.
This method is also suitable for forecasting univariate time series in presence of
outliers.

The forecast is calculated as follows

Initial Values:
St= Yt/Average(Y1:Ys), t=1,2,,s,
Ls= Ys/Ss,
Ts= [Average(Ys+1:Y2s) -Average(Y1:Ys)]/s

Evaluated values:
Lt= a*(Yt/St-s) + (1-a)*(Lt-1+Tt-1) for t = s+1,
Tt= b*(Lt-Lt-1) + (1-b)*Tt-1for t = s+1,
St= c*(Yt/Lt) + (1-c)*St-s, t=s+1,
Forecast:
Ft= (Lt+ Tt)*St+1-s =forecast of Y for next period (t+1)

The Holt-Winters model incorporates three potentially different smoothing

constants. The Holt-Winters model has one smoothing constant to update the
level, one for the slope, and one for the seasonal components. This approach is
most useful when the seasonal component and the trend component are changing
at different paces over time. The three smoothing constants lie somewhere
between 0 and 1. If the components change rapidly, large smoothing constants
should be considered; for stable components, the smoothing constants should be
close to zero.

5.3. DecompositionModels
In decomposition models, the underlying pattern of the car sales can be broken
down into sub-patterns that identify each component of the time series
separately. Such decomposition can frequently facilitate improved accuracy in
forecasting, and provides an aid in a better understanding of the behaviour of car
sales. Decomposition models usually try to identify three separate components of
the basic underlying pattern: trend, cyclic, and seasonal and then projects the
forecast.
5.3.1. Multiplicative Decomposition Model
The model is assumed to be multiplicative of its components i.e. trend,
seasonality, cyclical and error. All these parts are multiplied by each other to give
the forecast. The model equation is: Y = T*S*C*R
Where, T is the trend, S the seasonality, C the cycle and  the error.
5.3.2. Additive Decomposition Model
Additive Decomposition Model projects the identified parts (trend, seasonality,
cyclical and error) to the future and sums the resulting projection to form the
forecast. The model equation is: Y = T+S+C+R
where T is the trend, S the seasonality, C the cycle and  the error.

The results of exponential smoothing and decomposition models in MAPE terms

are given below.

Forecast Models

MAPE

Exponential Smoothing
12 month MA

16.44%

Up to data Moving Average

45.60%

Simple EWS

11.64%

EWS-Holts

12.17%

EWS-Winters

2.94%

Decomposition
Additive decomposition
Multiplicative
decomposition

6.

10.47%
6.15%

AnalysisandResults

After developing forecasting models using different methodologies, we have

analyzed the accuracy of the forecast by calculating mean absolute percentage
error (MAPE).

Particularly in regression models, while analyzing the relationship between

explanatory variables and the past car sales, we confirmed strong positive
correlation. Still, MAPE in simple linear regression (SLR) models, in which
individual explanatory variables were regressed against car sales, was very high
ranging from 11.14% for GDP Per Capita (constant value) to 20.76% (Sensex).
Similarly in multiple linear regression (MLR) models including exponentials, where
we have taken combination of explanatory variables and found their collective
correlation with past car sales, the correlation coefficient ranged from 1.42% to
20.42%. In MLR models, we found MAPE is below 6% in 5 models as listed below.

MultipleLinearRegressionResults
Sl
No

Independentvariables

AdjustedRsquare

DW

MAPE

GDP,GDPpc,PLR,Sensex,CPI
1 IIP,Lag1month
2 GDP,GDPpc,PLR,Sensex,CPI,IIP

0.913655629

1.929379

2.43%

0.913948981

2.057502

2.24%

GDP,GDPpc,GDPpc^2,PLR
3 Sensex,CPI,IIP

0.913655629

2.052521452

1.42%

GDP,GDPpc,GDPpc^2,PLR,Sensex,CPI,
4 IIP,Lag1month,Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4,GDP^2

0.92555644

2.249563388

4.56%

GDP,GDPpc,GDPpc^2,PLR,Sensex,CPI,
5 IIP,Lag1month,Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4

0.925609843

1.896998967

4.98%

The table shows higher correlation between GDP Per Capita and car sales as there
is considerable improvement in MAPE when exponent of GDP-PC is taken into the
combination.

The hypotheses of that car sales contains all three components viz. level, trend
and seasonality has been proved by the accuracy of EWS-Holt-Winters method in
which MAPE is the lowest among EWS models (2.94%). This is comparable with
the MLR model in which MAPE is 1.42% and as EWS models adjust for past errors
which is useful for long term forecasting. Unlike Holt-Winters, both decomposition
models fail to provide forecast results with better accuracy. The multiplicative
decomposition model with MAPE of 6.15% is slightly better than the additive
model in which MAPE is 10.47%.

7.

Recommendation

The analysis shows at least 6 models that include 5 MLR models and Holt-Winters
model have mean absolute percentage error below 6%. Among these we would
recommend 2 models for accurate forecasting. They are:
1. Holt-Winters EWS model
Taking a long term view and the components in car sales data (level, trend and
seasonality), provides a better forecasting model though its MAPE is higher than
the best MLR model.

2. MLR model with explanatory variables combination of GDP, GDPpc (GDP per
capita), GDPpc2, Prime Lending Rate (PLR), Sensex, Consumer Price Index
(CPI) and Index of Industrial Production (IIP).

Car sales for next month = -299305 + 0.1716(GDP) + 15.0685(GDPPc) 0.0004 (GDPPc^2) 2853.799 (PLR) + 2230.6215(CPI Index) 406.787
(IIP) + 2.0551(Sensex)

Among the all forecast models developed, this model provides the best accuracy.
Most importantly all influencing independent variables are built into the model
hence sensitivity analysis also be carried out.

These two models can be used to forecast pan-India combined monthly sales of
passenger cars of all car manufacturers. While adapting these models, individual
car manufacturer have to take into consideration the advertisement expenditure,
promotion plans and efficacy of distribution networks to forecast monthly sales.


8. Reference
CMIE data base, Forecasting Applications & Methods by Francis x.Diebold, Statistics for Managers by
Levine et al.
9.

Annexure

Common data sheet

Data.xlsx


CorrelationandSimpleLinearRegression

Simple Linear
Regression and Corre




MultipleLinearRegression

MLR Sheet.xlsx

MLR Dummy.xlsx

MLR Results.xlsx


Smoothingmethods

Smoothing
methods.xlsx

Decompositionmethods

Decomposition.xlsx