ARTICLE DE FOND

ECOSYSTEMS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

THE CENTRAL ROLE OF ENVIRONMENTAL PHYSICS
RESEARCH
NATHANIEL NEWLANDS, SCOTT ERICKSON, GABRIELA ESPINO-HERNANDEZ,
ANDREW PHILLIPS, AND TRACY PORCELLI

BY

PHYSICS AT THE CORE OF ECOSYSTEMS

RESEARCH
n ecosystem is defined as a complex system of
living organisms interacting with their environment and each other [1]. It includes exchanges of
matter and energy among living and non-living
components, with corresponding physical processes operating at the core of every ecosystem. When adaptation is
included in a systems behaviour, complexity arises. A
complex, adaptive system (CAS) can be defined as a system that exhibits emergent properties from small-scale
interactions. CAS theory describes how physical, biological, chemical and ecological processes are inter-related in
terms of their structure and function at the sub-system
scale [2]. An example of this is microbal biological control
over the soil denitrification-nitrification and mobilizationimmobilization coupled processes, and in turn, both emission of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide to the atmosphere, as well as nitrogen available for plant uptake and
growth. Computational power now enables numerical
simulations of such systems, as one cannot describe,
measure or model all the variables in a complex system at
once. Alongside computer experiments are often used as
statistical techniques to explore model uncertainty and
higher-order effects that dominate far from equilibrium
conditions. In this way, CAS theory offers theoretical

SUMMARY
Solutions to global environmental problems
are sought in a government laboratory using
applied physics, in a setting that combines
the efforts of federal researchers, visiting
postdoctoral fellows, and undergraduate students participating in co-operative education
programs.
We discuss several problems and current
areas of research. We highlight how physical
principles are central to understanding the
dynamics and long-term consequences of
ecosystems with the aim of encouraging
physicists to explore such challenging environmental problems.

insights and enables one to combine findings from different small-scale experiments to predict larger-scale patterns
and processes. The theory offers a powerful framework for
studying large, interacting systems: 1) where patterns are
not simply related to the sum of individual behaviour of
distinguishable components (e.g. spatio-temporal pattern
formation due to hysteresis in soil drying and wetting),
2) where the dynamical behaviour of a system is operating
far from equilibrium conditions (e.g. extreme weather
events) and 3) where processes are strongly coupled
(e.g. trace-gas emission from soil).

OUR PUBLIC-GOOD, INTER-DISCIPLINARY

RESEARCH PERSPECTIVE
Our research in Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada spans
a wide range of environmental problems, such as: a) climate spatial interpolation, b) climate downscaling and
extremes analysis, c) climate change impacts on
annual/perennial crop development, growth and survival
(i.e., phenology), d) carbon sequestration and life-cycle
assessment of net-greenhouse-gas emissions (CO2, N2O,
CH4), e) the optimal selection, transport and processing of
specialized crops for energy (i.e., biofuel), f) changing
agricultural and forestry land degradation and suitability
implications associated with future regional climate scenarios, g) pesticide-fate pollution and contamination modeling and mapping, and h) soil moisture and crop yield
forecasting using remote-sensing/earth observational
information. Our research work is conducted in close collaboration with managers, technicians and other experts in
our Agri-Environmental Services Branch (AESB) in
delivering operational web-based tools, data-sharing and
mapping products to the Canadian public. Overall, our
research is concerned with the long-term security, sustainability and resilience of our managed agricultural
ecosystems or agricultural production systems. Our
research group is actively engaged with other scientists
and bioenergy industry experts across the country in trying
to understand how current agroecosystems can best produce and supply crops for bioenergy production (i.e., firstgeneration biomass residue, second-generation cellulosicethanol or futuristic, third-generation biorefineries producing bioenergy, bioplastics and many other co-products). This work is considered extremely important as

N. Newlands
<nathaniel.newlands
@agr.gc.ca>,
S. Erickson,
G. Espino-Hernandez,
and A. Phillips,
Agriculture and AgriFood Canada,
Lethbridge, AB,
T1J 4B1
and
T. Porcelli, scientific
consultant and CAP
member

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ECOSYSTEMS IN CHANGING CLIMATE ... (NEWLANDS ET AL.)

rates of human consumption have now passed the point of

maximum available fossil fuel (i.e., peak-oil), whereby we are
increasingly dependent on other forms of environmentallyrenewable energy.
Our research is interdisciplinary and integrated, combining
physics with agriculture, biology, ecology, geography, statistics, economics, meteorology, and even oceanography. Early
stages of research projects typically involve preliminary investigations by full-time permanent staff to determine their feasibility. If a preliminary project appears to have a high chance of
success, proposals for more funding are prepared and submitted to government and potential industry partners, and (if
accepted) are used to employ short-term staff, who further
elaborate and advance the projects. We emphasize an
exploratory approach to learning, where each person on the
research team has specific responsibilities, as well as the
opportunity to tackle research problems and obstacles, thus
developing creative problem-solving skills. However, delineation of research projects is not necessarily strict, so that each
person on the team is encouraged to learn about other projects
and help where they can. As much as possible, team members
are located together for maximum interaction, and have the
opportunity to discover non-traditional research methods that
may apply to their research project. Examples of research projects currently underway include coupling of mathematical
models for improved estimation of agricultural crop production, tracking of water and contaminant movement in agricultural soils, and modelling of regional climates for better understanding of climate change and its impacts.

UNDERSTANDING
ECOSYSTEMS
COUPLED BIOPHYSICAL MODELS

USING

In agricultural research, some important questions need to be

answered; for instance, what is the maximum crop growth and
food production that can be achieved given a certain set of circumstances? How are crop production and soil affected by climate change and pollution due to human activity? What is the
impact of these factors on future land use? In addition, agricultural producers are interested in knowing what management
practices (fertilizer application, planting, cultivation, irrigation,
pest control) are the most favourable, and what timing is optimal for each practice. These are fundamental questions, since
the decisions made will influence future crop production, while
also affecting the overall health and quality of the agricultural
ecosystems involved. Inadequate management practices may
have severe and irreversible consequences on soil quality, and
could result in excessive emission of greenhouse gases [3].
Numerous numerical simulation-based crop production models
have been developed to help answer these questions, such
as DSSAT (Decision-Support System for Agricultural
Technology-Transfer), DAYCENT (Day time-step version of
Century ecosystem model), FASSET (Farm Assessment Tool),
and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator).
These models simulate nitrogen and carbon flow in agroecosystems using mass-balanced equations, typically represent-

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ed as non-linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs). These

equations are coupled to soil water, nutrients and other material flows governed by partial differential equations (PDEs),
solved using finite-element methods. However, the many
processes involved in agricultural ecosystems, and their interconnected nature, often result in models that are complex, specific to certain applications, and have different sources of
uncertainty. Among the many processes considered in agricultural ecosystems are fertilization, decomposition, volatilization, fixation, absorption, de-nitrification, leaching, infiltration,
mineralization, evaporation, transpiration, photosynthesis, and
runoff.
In some models, the effects of carbon and nitrogen fluxes in
soil are simulated, while other models focus on simulating
plant growth, or cycling of water or nutrients. Model uncertainty arises from imposed initial and boundary conditions, measured data and identified parameters. Uncertainty due to assuming a certain model structure (perhaps the largest of these
uncertainties) is too often overlooked [4,5]. To assess modelstructural uncertainty selection of a single model is often not
the best approach for many different agro-environmental applications. A broader perspective is required to predict crop
growth and food production, to assess future changes in land
use, to study the impact of climate change on global crop
yields, to determine the environmental consequences of agricultural practices, or to analyze interactions between terrestrial
ecosystems and climate [3].
The shortcomings of individual models can be partially overcome by combining predictions from several models. One such
approach, called Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), allows
combination of predictions from several individual models
based on their performance. As a result, BMA accounts for
model uncertainty in addition to parameter uncertainty [6]. The
probability density of an ensemble prediction can be modeled
as a weighted sum of probability densities from different models, as it is given by the following formula:
N

p (Y * Data ) = p (Y * M i , Data ) * p ( M i * Data )

i =1

The left term of the sum refers to the probability of a desired

outcome under model i, and the right term refers to the weight
assigned to that particular model based on its performance prediction. Models with better predictive performance are therefore assigned larger weights (see Fig.1). The BMA approach
leads to better prediction performance than for any individual
model selected [7]. Using a multiple set of weights generally
produces better predictions than using a single set of
weights [8]. Examples of use of the BMA approach to reduce
model uncertainty include predictions of plant uptake of contaminants from soils [6], hydrology [8], future climate [9], and
gap analysis of agricultural crop yields [10].
To implement BMA, it is necessary to overcome some difficulties: choosing the models over which to average, specifying
initial distributions of the selected models, and computing the

ECOSYSTEMS IN CHANGING CLIMATE ... (NEWLANDS ET AL.)AA

Fig. 2

Fig. 1

An ensemble prediction can be obtained using Bayesian

Model Averaging (BMA). This approach combines individual model predictions from a set of models, and weights the
predictions according to model performance. Predictions
from better-performing models are assigned larger weights.
BMA prediction is the weighted sum of predictions from
different models. BMA considers model uncertainty in addition to uncertainties due to parameters and data measurement. Therefore, BMA performance prediction is as good as
or better than any of the single-model predictions.

integrals implicit in the formula [11]. In particular, a difficulty

arises in calculating both terms of the sum (the predictive
probability of the desired outcome and the weight), since it
is necessary to solve some integrals which in most cases do
not exist in closed form. Therefore, solving the integrals is
generally hard to compute. One solution to this problem is the
use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for stochastic approximation. MCMC methods have their origin in
physics and were developed in order to solve some flaws of the
simulation methods known as Monte Carlo. Monte Carlo simulation is a statistical approach that uses random number generation to compute integrals; however this method has some
problems in obtaining samples from high dimensional probability distributions, which it is commonly required for
Bayesian analysis [12-15].

TRACKING MOVEMENT OF WATER AND

CONTAMINANTS IN SOIL
In temperate climates, soil freezes in winter and thaws in the
summer. These processes usually occur from the top of the soil
profile and progress downward, forming freezing and thawing
fronts. Variations in weather can result in repeated thaw and
freeze cycles that end up being captured in the soil profile
(Fig. 2) For example, during the winter in southern Alberta,

Typical mid-winter freeze-thaw cycles of temperate climates. The freezing front advances downward once soil
temperatures drop below freezing, and the front advances
until the surface can no longer remove heat from the soil. A
thawing front develops when the weather warms the soil
surface, and another freezing front develops with the return
of cold conditions.

warm westerly winds that originate from the Pacific Ocean

called Chinook winds can result in above-freezing temperatures that thaw the top layers of soil. The degree of thawing
depends on how much snow cover is insulating the soil, the air
temperature gradient at the soil surface, and how long the
Chinook winds persist, as well as other factors [16]. Soil water
can exist as a liquid at temperatures well below the freezing
point; this is known as freezing point depression. As ice forms
in the soil pores below the freezing front, some liquid water
remains in the pore spaces around the ice crystals [17]. The
solutes within the soil water solution will further lower the
freezing point [18]. Soil water can be supercooled several
degrees below the freezing point in the field. The degree of
supercooling or the delay in formation of ice crystals depends
on presence/absence of freezing nuclei for binding, as well as
the complex structure of soil solid and solution phases and their
interaction.
Soil is porous, and water will flow through it from areas of high
pressure toward areas of low pressure. Varying soil pore space
creates interesting relations between soil water and pressure.
As water infiltrates the soil column, smaller pores surrounding
the larger pores will fill first. More pressure is needed to fill the
larger pore spaces than the smaller ones; therefore the pressure
must increase to a critical point, before the large pore will fill.
When the soil is drying the pressure must drop low enough to
overcome the capillary forces within the smaller pores before
the large pores can drain. This is known as hysteresis of water
retention and can be defined as the pressure where soil water
content is less during drying than wetting [19]. Darcys law governs saturated flow through porous media, and it states that a
specific discharge through a porous media is proportional to
the hydraulic gradient, defined as the change in mechanical
energy per unit weight of water. The simplest form of Darcys
law that describes water movement in soil is Richards equation, which considers only uniform flow within soil pore
spaces. A more complex variation of Richards equation result-

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ECOSYSTEMS IN CHANGING CLIMATE ... (NEWLANDS ET AL.)

ed in the dual porosity model, which was later developed to

accommodate the assumption that water flows in large pores,
but not in small pores [20,21]. Another variation called the dual
permeability model assumes that water flows in both large and
small pores, but with different hydraulic conductivities. In
unsaturated soils the hydraulic conductivity is related to the
water content and pressure. While different functions for unsaturated soil hydraulic conductivity exist, the van Genuchten
function is commonly used, given by,

S c ( h) =

(h) r
n
= 1 + * h *
s r

where Sc is the effective water saturation, r and s denote

the residual and saturated water content, respectively. The
parameters, , n, m are empirically-determined. The saturated
hydraulic conductivity can then be determined by,

K lh ( Sc ) K s Scl 1 (1 Scl / m )

).

m 2

When soil water is in the liquid phase, its hydraulic conductivity is temperature-dependent, related as,

hG d
K lT = 10 Q K lh

o dT
where T is temperature, is the surface tension of soil water
( = 75.6 - 0.1425 T-2.38x10-4 T2 , o (25oC) = 71.89 g s-2), and
G is a gain factor. In partially frozen soil, liquid water is
replaced by ice in some soil pores, significantly increasing the
resistance of the porous medium to water flow, causing a
blocking effect or impedance. This effect further reduces the
hydraulic conductivity of the liquid phase, and can be modeled
according to the ratio of ice to total water content (Q) and
impedance factor ().
Freeze-thaw cycles can be modeled by coupling a dynamic
heat transfer equation. This equation uses the latent heat of
water fusion, soil temperature, volumetric heat capacity and
soil thermal conductivity as parameters to simulate the transfer
of energy through soil. Combining the heat transfer equation
with water flow models allows the simulation of soil freezing
and thawing. Newman and Wilson investigated the heat and
mass transfer of soil water flow during soil freezing events [17],
but this study only looked at heat and mass transfer during
freezing. Heat and mass transport during thawing and solute
transport were not addressed. Multiphase heat transport has
been modeled for oil recovery and soil remediation [21]. In this
application high temperature gradients within the soil profile
are created by injecting steam into the soil, allowing for organic liquids to be separated from the soil matrix. Few studies have
investigated combining multiphase flow and heat transport
equations with existing solute transport equations and applying
them to a realistic soil freeze-thaw cycle situation.
Soil water can dissolve and transport many different solutes,
non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPLs), including agricultural

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herbicides/pesticides. Little is known about how the transport

of dissolved agricultural contaminants through soil is affected
by multiple freeze-thaw cycles during the winter and early
spring months. Mathematical models have been created to simulate solute transport through soil. Uniform solute transport is
described using the advection-dispersion equation. The main
elements of the balance equation are solute concentration, volumetric water content, volumetric flux density, bulk soil density, and sorbed solute concentration. The equation includes a
dispersion coefficient to account for molecular diffusion and
mechanical dispersion of the solute. The solute transport equation can then be combined with the dual porosity and dual permeability models for water flow, to describe in more detail how
solute dissolved in water will move through the soil matrix [21].
Combining multiphase flow, heat and solute transport will
allow for better accuracy in modeling and investigation of how
freeze thaw cycles effect the movement of solute through the
soil matrix. Such models will involve the tracking of free interfaces, a difficult mathematical problem [22]. In particular, multiphase flow in the soil often exhibits fractional wettability
where wettability is defined as the tendency for one fluid to
spread on, or adhere to a solid surface, in the presence of another immiscible fluid, and commonly measured by the contact
angle the fluid-fluid interface makes with a solid support [23].
Capillary pressure is typically defined as the difference
between non-wetting and wetting phase pressure. Fractional
wettability in such systems thus alters the key relationship
between capillary pressure and saturation, that can be accounted from by a shifting factor proportional to the fraction of
hydrophobic surfaces in the system, according to,

P fw ( Sc ) = PNAPL Pw = P ww ( Sc )
where Sc is water saturation, defined previously, Pfw and Pww
are the capillary pressures of the fractional and water-wet
wettability system, PNAPL and Pw are the NAPL and aqueous
phase pressures, and is the hydrophobic shifting parameter [23].
Our objective in this area of research is to improve upon the
existing methods, by incorporating equations for solute transport into current models. The final result will be a model that
can simulate transport of solutes through soil under the conditions of repeated freeze-thaw cycles, in one, two or three
dimensions. Visualization and modelling of freeze-thaw cycles
and the resulting solute transport is done using Hydrus computer software [24]. We hope that the new knowledge generated by
this research will help to understand how pesticides contaminate ground and surface waters, and will therefore assist policy
makers to make reasonable decisions when formulating pesticide regulations.

STUDYING EARTHS CHANGING CLIMATE

Production of food for the global community is heavily
dependent on weather, especially temperature and precipitation. For many years, researchers have used mathematical
models of physical processes to understand weather and make

ECOSYSTEMS IN CHANGING CLIMATE ... (NEWLANDS ET AL.)AA

better forecasts. However, weather is variable and often fraught

with uncertainty. Long-term changes in the global climate have
also been identified that raise significant concerns for the entire
population of our earth [25]. How these large-scale trends will
impact food production on a more regional and local basis is an
important question in modern agriculture.
Despite the variability that exists in weather, some patterns
exist that can help in making reasonable forecasts and predictions. These patterns exist on a wide variety of scales from
global climate to local microclimate. For example, changes in
the position of the earth relative to the sun results in predictable
seasonal changes in weather: temperatures will usually
increase during the summer months, and decrease during the
winter. Interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere also
take place in cycles (i.e., teleconnections). The El Nino
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a well-known example of
this [26]. Another long-term pattern that affects the weather in
western Canada and USA is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(PDO) [27].
In our ecosystems modelling laboratory, a project is in progress
to model the regional climate of western Canada using weather data from the past five decades. We are interested in spatial
interpolation modeling of historical temperature and precipitation and exploring ways to incorporate non-stationary spatial
covariance in existing statistical regression- or functionalbased approaches. Although weather data were collected from
stations across western Canada on a daily basis, climate modelling can be done on daily, monthly, seasonal, and yearly time
scales. We are also devising improvements to statistical models
that downscale climate from global and regional forecasts to
smaller spatial scales (i.e., 10 km), examining the uncertainty
in the forecasts of several existing downscaling models. The
statistical downscaling approach builds stochasticity into temperature and precipitation events and their magnitudes, while
also enabling a high degree of flexibility for considering correlations in time (autocorrelation) due to multiple teleconnection
trends, and changes in the spatial correlation in temperature
and precipitation due to large water bodies (i.e., lakes, ocean)
and mountains. These models are often represented as non-linear regression models. In contrast, dynamic regional climate
models (RCMs) require coupled solution of large sets of
dynamic differential equations for generating in-season and

long-term climate forecasts. Statistical downscaling models

use historical climate data, teleconnection indices, and ensemble output of global climate models (GCMs). We aim to use
such models to better understand the regional climate trends
across Canada and the potential impact of extreme events and
long-term climate change on agriculture. In this way, better
information can be provided to those who make policies
regarding the environment, and to agricultural producers who
generate the worlds food supply.

ECOSYSTEM MODELS: WINDOWS INTO AN

UNCERTAIN FUTURE
Physical processes are the driving force in all ecosystems.
Although there is a myriad of ways that matter and energy can
flow through time and space within ecosystems, these processes can be represented using mathematical models, and therefore can be studied. The challenge of modelling ecosystems is
to reconstruct the numerous interactions that take place, without making the models so complex that they cannot be easily
understood. When models have been tested and validated well,
they can be used to predict. Only after rigorous testing, should
they be used to forecast potential future impact of our present
activities in managing ecosystems and the services they provide (i.e., food, energy, water, fuel and more). Yet there is still
a great need for improved and efficient verification and validation methods for large complex systems. In order to tackle
often daunting environmental problems that will confront us in
coming decades, it is essential that students and young scientists become engaged in identifying, understanding and solving
problems that involve strongly coupled, interacting processes
that can exhibit a hierarchy of dynamics. Addressing such
problems will require inter-disciplinary knowledge and experience and strong team collaboration skills, in addition to critical
and analytical reasoning abilities. It is no longer adequate to
learn just the content of science; as an understanding of the
context of science together with all its relationships to society,
technology and the environment is increasingly important to
solving complex problems with many interacting agents. By
involving young researchers in our ongoing ecosystem modelling studies and communicating what we do in different
avenues, we hope to help accelerate progress on key environmental problems - critical to sustaining the health of ecosystems and future human welfare.

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