Daily Markets Update

29 avril 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
Daily Markets Update
1 Daily Markets Update| Capital Conservator , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli , Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
Fundamental Outlook:
Awaiting confidence and labor figures amid panic in markets over sovereign debt woes
This week lacked heavy flow of fundamentals from Europe, providing room for investors to grow more pessimistic over the outlook with the
complication of the sovereign debt crisis led by Greece.
The outlook for Greece, and the fear of a spreading contagion was the major market mover this week. As the fears were closer to subsiding,
they reemerged this week with the unexpected downgrade for Greek debt rating to junk. Borrowing rates surged across Europe and the
market intensification threatens a rerun of the credit crisis when money markets froze.
Portugal was under the spot with Greece and suffered also the downgrade, and now on Wednesday just a day after the junk shock, S&P also
downgraded Spanish credit rating to 'AA' from 'AA+'. The pessimism and fear extended in the market where the euro lingers at a year's low
and equities ended with heavy losses offsetting the effect of positive earnings.
Fears are concentrated on the spread of the contagion, and the failure of the EU to subside to the market signals that eventually drove
borrowing rates extensively high and drove Greece to activate the aid package. Speculation in the market grew over steps by the IMF to expand
its aid package to help Greece contain the damage and meet maturing debt in the coming month. Germany that was reluctant early this week in
providing the aid was under the pressure of the surprising turn of events and rapid deterioration and pledge to prove the air to Greece with no
delay.
The heavy pessimism the prevailed for the past two days might start to ease today with Germany behind the package and full EU support for
Greece to ease the market tension and stave off pressures that might lead other debt-laden nations to follow. We are awaiting Garman labor
data and confidence which is expected with a slight rise in April to 99.4 from 97.7 and the business climate is also expected higher at -0.12
from -0.32.
The recovery is ongoing across Europe and Germany, where the industrial sector is supported by rising export orders as global demand
recovers buoyed by the euro's depreciation which is supporting the area's competitiveness. The industrial confidence is expected to also
advance slightly alongside services confidence alongside as both sectors continue the path of recovery.
As for the German labor market, the development is not that steady, where unemployment is expected steady at 8.0% and for an additional 10
thousand job losses though at a slower pace than the previous month's pace of 31.0 thousand.
As for the British economy, the focus continues to be on the nearing elections, which continues to be the main focus on royal lands, especially
as today holds the final televised debate between the three main rival parties with the focus on the economy. A hung parliament is not in the
favor of the economy neither is the shift in political stance as the economy remains fragile and a strong shift in stance threatens with a 'double-
dip' recession, especially after the economy grew by half the expected in the first quarter by 0.2%.
More of Greece focus and aid details are to be the attention again today, especially as the disparities between Europe and the US continue to
rise, where the feds FOMC cited ongoing development and improvement in the labor market while pledging to keep rates at their record low.
The sentiment might improve slightly today with German pledges, though the Spanish downgrade and lack of information regarding the air
package will extend the rout. More earnings are awaited today and expected to extend the good start for the earnings season while the euro is
fighting its way against the dollar and continues bearish heading to test the crisis lows
EURUSD
The Technical out look for the EUR/USD Thursday, April the 29th, 2010, level 1.3217
Position Strategy: current position FLAT, have taken profit on SHORT position from 1.32144 at 1.3120
Enter SHORT on a break of 1.3144 stop 1.3205 target 1.3111 first for 1.3063 next
Enter LONG on a break of 1.3415 with a stop 1.3355 target 1.3525
Some sideway trading may be seen today between 1.3150 and 1.3255. But by the break of 1.3202 support suggests that recovery form 1.3202
has completed at 1.3415. The day trend is still to the downside and the break yesterday of 1.3144 have confirm down trend continuation.
Furthermore, the EUR/USD have reached by breaking this last level the 61.8% projection of 1.4578 to 1.3443 from 1.3817 at 1.3111 (low at
1.3114). Now if we break again 1.3144 we may retest 1.3111/14 and then to the 1.3063. On the upside, however, decisive break of 1.3415
resistance will mix up the near term outlook and turn focus to falling trend line resistance at 1.3527 instead, light brown line on the chart.
Furthermore in an Elliott Wave point of view, in the bigger picture, the break of 1.3267 support confirms that whole medium term decline
from 1.5143 has resumed. As discussed before, the three wave consolidation from 2008 low of 1.2329 has completed at 1.5143 already and fall
from there is resuming whole down trend from 2008 high of 1.6039. We'd expect fall from 1.5143 to break through 1.2329 low eventually. On
the upside, break of 1.3692 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish and the EURO IS IN
A BEAR TREND as far that 1.4217 is not broken up
In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 has made an important top at 1.6039 in 2008. Subsequent price actions
are so far viewed as a correction only, in form of three waves. First wave has completed at 1.2329 while secondly should have completed at
1.5143. Fall from 1.5143, as the third wave of correction, is in progress and should extend to 1.1639 support, and possibly further to 100%
projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143 at 1.1424. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039
at 1.1209 to conclude the correction and bring another long term up trend.
USD/CHF:
The technical outlook for USD/CHF Thursday, April the 29th, 2010, level 1.0864
Position Strategy: Current position, LONG at 1.0901 with a stop 1.0818 target 1.1200
Enter SHORT on a break 1.0556 stop 1.0664 target 1.0435
Enter LONG on a break of 1.0899 with a stop 1.0818 target 1.1200
Yesterday the USD/CHF touched 1.0924 minor resistance and turns in small correction. The continuation of the correction might be seen in
USD/CHF first but downside should be contained by 1.0818 minor support, a break of this level will turn day bias neutral and bring
consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.0699 support and bring rally resumption. On the upside, decisive break of 1.0897
resistance again will confirm that whole medium term rise from 0.9916 has resumed. In such case, next target will be 100% projection of
1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1200
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the three waves corrective structure of the fall from 1.0897 to 1.0434 affirmed
the view that whole rally from 0.9916 is still in progress. USD/CHF's strong break of medium term falling trend line also affirms the view that
whole correction from 1.2296 has completed with three waves down to 0.9916. Break of 1.0899 will confirm rally resumption and we should
then be seeing another medium term rise towards 1.1963/2296 resistance zone. On the downside, though, break of 1.0434 will invalidate this
view and turn outlook mixed. Furthermore, we're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from
the markets before taking a stance.
EUR/CHF:
The technical outlook for EUR/CHF Thursday, April the 29th, 2010, level 1.4334
Position Strategy:
Current position : SHORT at 1.4309 stop 1.4387 target 1.4143 first for 1.4005next
Enter LONG if we break 1.4387 with a stop 1.4310 target 1.4466.
No Change: despite dipping to 1.4292 briefly, there was any follow through selling and EUR/CHF recovered back into familiar range. Outlook is
turned neutral again and more choppy sideway trading might be seen. On the downside, break of 1.4292 will argue that rebound from 1.4143
is completed at 1.4465 already and turn bias to the downside for this support first. On the upside, a move above 1.4386 will suggest that
stronger recovery might be seen and another high above 1.4466 would be seen before corrective rise from 1.4143 completes. But after all,
we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 1.4557 support turned resistance to limit upside and bring fall resumption sooner or later.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.4135 (2008 low) confirms that whole long term down
trend from 1.6287 has resumed. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.6368 to 1.4315 from 1.5138 at 1.3869. On the upside,
break of 1.4557 spike low resistance is needed to be first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to
extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run.
GBP/USD:
The technical outlook for GBP/USD Thursday, April the 29th, 2010, level 1.5180
Position Strategy: Current position: SHORT at 1.5288 stop 1.5287 target 1.4780
The GBP/USD drops to as low as 1.5125 yesterday and at this point, the day bias remains on the downside. The break of 1.5192 support revives
that case that consolidation from 1.4783 has completed with three waves up to 1.5521 already. Further decline should now be seen to retest
1.4783 low first. A break of this last level will confirm that whole decline from 1.6456 has resumed for 1.4364/37 (200% projection of 1.6875
to 1.5829 from 1.6456 at 1.4364 or 61.8% projection from 1.6456 to 1.4783 from 1.5381 at 1.4337and 76.4% retracement from 1.3500 to
1.6875 at 1.4337). On the upside, above 1.5287 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But we'd stay
bearish as long as 1.5496 resistance holds.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, there is no change, we're holding on the bearish view that medium term
rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043 already. Fall from there is
tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and should target a new low below 1.3503. On the upside, break of 1.5815
resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (1985 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature
of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed
and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for 61.8% projection (2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043) at 1.2310 next.
AUD/USD
The technical outlook for AUD/USD Thursday, April the 29th, level 0.9258
Position Strategy: Current position SHORT from 0.9155 stop 0.9311 target 0.9001
Enter LONG if we break 0.9311 with a stop 0.9189 target 0.9404
Yesterday AUD/USD dropped to as low as 0.9136 and but rebound sharply after and break again the lower band of the ascending channel,
green line on the chart, now at 0.9232. the current price action suggests that rise from 0.8577 is completed at 0.9380, ahead of 0.9404 high.
Intraday bias is now neutral and we need to break 0.9136 to see further decline to 0.9004 support next. Break will target a test on 0.8577 key
support. On the upside, break of 0.9311 will dampen this bearish view and suggest that price actions from 0.9380 are merely consolidations.
That is, recent rise is still in progress for another high above 0.9404.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the AUD/USD is still trading well inside the rising channel, green line on the
chart, with the lower band now at 0.9198 and rise from 0.6008 should still be in progress. A break again of 0.9327 resistance will affirms the
view that rise from 0.8577 will resume such rally and break of 0.9404 will confirm. If we treat the rise from 0.8577 as the fifth wave in the rise
from 0.6008 with equal length as the first wave from 0.6008 to 0.7267, upside target will be 0.9836, which is close to 2008 high of 0.9849. On
the downside, break of 0.9001 support will, however, suggests that AUD/USD's rally might have completed prematurely and would turn focus
back to 0.8577 support instead.
In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above
76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new uptrend which will extend the
long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 cluster support holds and expect an eventual
break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open
up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.
USD/JPY
The technical outlook for USD/JPY Thursday, April the 29th, 2010, level 94.05
Position Strategy: Current position LONG at 93.63 stop 92.81 target 94.68 for 97.06
Enter SHORT on a break of 91.59 with stop 0.9257 target 89.67
Yesterday USD/JPY's fall was contained at 92.81 and rebounds strongly. The day bias is mildly bullish for the moment. Note that on the upside,
decisive break of 94.68 resistance will confirm that whole rally from 88.13 has resumed and should target 100% projection of 84.81 to 93.74
from 88.13 at 97.06 next. Before that, we might see more sideway consolidations first. Below 92.81 will bring another fall but after all, we'd
expected downside to be contained by 91.59 support to conclude the consolidation from 94.68 and bring rally resumption.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole down trend form 124.13 is
completed at 84.81 on bullish convergence condition in daily AO and Stochastic. We'd expect stronger rally towards 101.43/65 medium term
resistance zone for confirming this bullish case. On the downside, break of 88.13 support is needed to indicate that rebound from 84.81 is
finished. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
In the long term picture, downside momentum is clearly diminishing and bullish convergence condition in weekly oscillators; the long term
down trend in USD/JPY might have reversed. Focus now turns to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone and decisive break there will also
break the lower high lower low pattern since 124.13. This will suggest that a long term bottom is in place and another rising leg of the sideway
pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995 should then be in progress for upper side of the range at 147.68.
EUR/JPY
The technical outlook for EUR/JPY Thursday, April the 29th, 2010, level 124.20
Position Strategy: Current position : Flat , Have been stopped on SHORT position from 123.11 at 123.85
Enter LONG at 126.30 stop at 124.55 target 128.41
Enter HORT on a break of 122.36 with stop 123.14 target 121.77
Yesterday the EUR/JPY rebound strongly and broke again the near term trend line, light brown line on the chart, now at 123.63. The current
market action is quiet confusing. On the downside: if we break 122.36 support and the near term trend line indicates that recent choppy rise
from 119.64 is merely a correction in the larger down trend and has possibly completed at 127.88 already and will target 100% projection of
127.65 to 123.14 from 126.28 at 121.77. On the upside, above 126.30 minor resistance will turn day bias bullish and the down move to 122.36
was a correction and we are heading for 127.91 resistance.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, price actions from 112.10 are treated as correction to long term down trend
from 2008 high of 169.96, no doubt. Question is whether such correction is completed at 139.21 already and another rise would still be seen.
The momentum of the rise from 119.64 is not strong enough to confirm the bullish case yet and we'll stay neutral. On the upside, another rise
above 127.91 will reaffirm the bullish case that rise from 112.10 is resuming for another high above 139.21 before completion. On the
downside, break of 121.05 support, however, will revive that case that EUR/JPY has already topped out in medium term at 139.21 and will
pave the wave for another low below 112.10 instead.
In the long term picture, the uptrend from 88.96 (00 low) was completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Fall from 169.96 should
develop into a three wave correction with first wave completed at 112.10. Second wave from 118.10 might still be in progress but after all,
we'd expect another long term fall to 118.10 and beyond after the third wave starts.
GBP/JPY
The technical outlook for GBP/JPY Thursday, April the 29th, 2010, level 143.04
Position Strategy:Current position : SHORT at 142.39 stop 143.80 target 140.08 first for 134.53/33
Enter LONG if we break 143.8 with a stop 142.40 target 145.94
No real change, GBP/JPY's fall from 145.97 extended further to as low as 141.59 so far and intraday bias is on the downside for further decline.
Note that GBP/JPY is still trading well above near term trend line support, green line on the chart, now at 141.18 and there is no confirmation
of topping yet. Above 143.80 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 145.94. However, considering bearish
divergence condition in AO and RSI, sustained break of the trend line support now at 141.18 will indicate that whole rebound from 132.13 is
over and will bring deeper fall for the 38.2% retracement of 132.13 to 145.04 at 140.08 first and to 61.8% retracement of 132.13 to 145.04 at
137.04 next and possibly further to 134.53/134.33 support zone.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, the choppy fall from 163.05 might have completed with three waves down
to 132.13 already and the corrective structure in turn argue that whole medium term rally from 2009 low of 118.18 is still in progress.
However, upside of the current rise from 132.13 is still limited by the near term falling channel and well below 150.68 resistance thus there is
no confirmation yet. We'll turn neutral first. On the upside, above 145.04 again will affirm the bullish case and the rise from 132.13 is
resuming medium term rally from 118.18. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 132.13 at 151.23 will affirm this case and
set the stage for another high above 163.05. On the downside, however, break of 134.53/33 support zone will revive the case that GBP/JPY has
topped out at 163.05 and will turn outlook bearish again for 118.18.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated
as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of
the correction from 118.81.
USD/CAD
The technical outlook for USD/CAD Thursday, April the 29th, 2010, level 1.0060
Position Strategy: Current position Flat: Take profit NOW on SHORT position from 1.0143 at 1.0060
Enter LONG on a break of 1.0214 stop 1.0005 target 1.0302
Enter SHORT on a break of 0.9929 with stop 1.0005 target 89.67
The USD/CAD's rebound was limited at 1.0196, below 1.0214 resistances and retreated. With 1.0214 resistance intact, price actions from
0.9929 are probably developing into sideway consolidation in the larger decline only. Break of 0.9929 low will confirm that such down trend
has resumed..A Break of 0.9929 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1723 to 1.0205 from 1.0779 at 0.9841 On the upside, though, decisive break
of 1.0214 will confirm that fall from 1.0779 is completed and will bring stronger rebound towards 1.0302 resistance and above. We are trading
between to key point 1.2014 and 09929 and a break of one of this level will give the new trend direction, It’s why I take my profit now from my
short from 1.0143.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, In the bigger picture, whole medium term fall from 1.3063 is still in progress. It's unclear
whether such fall is resuming the long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) or it's part of a consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056
(2007 low). In either case, fall from 1.3063 is now expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.3063 to 1.0784 from 1.1723 at 0.9444
next. On the upside, break of 1.0779 resistance is needed to confirm medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook remains bearish even in case of
strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, while long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) has made an important low at 0.9056, the sustained trading
below the long trend indicators now at 1.0153, green line on the chart, again argues that the long term trend has not reversed yet. Fall from
1.3063 is either resuming the long term down trend or is part of a sideway consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). We'll stay
neutral for the moment until the fall from 1.3063 finally confirms whether it's impulsive or corrective in nature.
GOLD
The technical outlook for GOLD: Thursday, April the 29th, 2010, level 1169.25
Position Strategy: Current position FLAT

Enter LONG on a break of 1170.7 stop 1147.3 target 1186
Enter SHORT on a break of 1124.3 stop 1147.3 target 1084.8
Yesterday Gold broke 1170.7 resistance and by the way indicates that rise from 1084.8 has resumed. The day bias is now on the upside and
further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 100% projection of 1044.5 to 1145.8 from 1084.8 at 1186 next. On the downside, below
1147.3 support will turn intraday bias neutral. Also, note that further break of 1124.3 will indicate that whole rise from 1044.5 has completed
and will bring deeper decline to 1084.8 support and below.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the lack of impulsive structure of the rise from 1044.5 so far suggests that it's
the second leg of the whole consolidation pattern that started at 1227.5. At this moment, there is no confirmation that rise from 1044.5 is
completed yet and another rise might still be seen. However, even in that case, strong resistance should be seen above 100% projection of
1044.5 to 1145.8 from 1084.8 at 1186 to complete the rise and bring the another fall to retest 1044.5 before consolidation from 1227.5
completes. Meanwhile, break of 1084.8 support will indicate that the third falling leg has likely started and will then target a new low below
1044 before completing consolidations from 1227.5.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation
from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level.
We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.
CrudeOIL
The technical outlook for OIL Thursday, April the 29th, level 83.58
Current position : Current position FLAT: Have taken profit on SHORT position from 82.84 at 82.65
Enter LONG on a break of 85.63 stop 84.20 target 87.09
Enter SHORT on a break of 81.26 stop 82.69 target 80.53
Yesterday the Crude oil rebound from his sharp fall from 85.63 and is trading now above the trend line , light brown on the chart, now at
82.69.The day bias is neutral. On the downside if we break 81.26 support will suggests that recovery from 80.53 has completed. Intraday bias
will be flipped back to the downside and deeper fall should be seen towards 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 87.09 at 80.37 or further to 100%
projection of 87.09 to 80.53 from 85.63 at 79.07. On the upside, a move above 85.63 will bring another rise to retest 87.09 high. But after all,
sustained break there is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, another fall would still be seen before consolidation from 87.09
concludes.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, that medium term rise from 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole
correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Our preferred view is that rise from 33.2 is in form of a three wave structure (73.23, 65.05, ?) and
should be near to completion. Strong resistance is expected around 90 psychological level, which coincide with 50% retracement of 147.27 to
33.2 at 90.24 and 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 73.23 from 65.05 at 89.79, and bring reversal. Hence, even though another rally cannot be ruled
out, upside potential should be limited. On the downside, break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will
be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 1998 low
of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we still
prefer the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between
76.77/90.24 Fibonacci resistance zone and bring reversal for another low before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010
The technical outlook for DJI: Thursday, April the 29th, 2010, level 10129.1
Current position Flat : Have been stopped on LONG position from 10381.4 at 10915 target
This week the Dow rally reached as high as 11205.15 a level near of the target at 11211.75. and was followed by a sharp fall that went as far as
10914.15 and stopped my long position by the way. We are just trading now below the lower band of the ascending channel now at 11059.25,
green line on the chart. The DOW must close above this level to renew the bull bias otherwise we got a top at 11205.15. A break of this level
will confirm the continuation of the Bull Run. On the down side a close under 10914.15 support will be the primary sign of top in place we may
then fall to 10812 area. For now I want to see more market action to take a position.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the count suggests that the bear market ended in Mar 09.The anticipated 50% retracement rally
was actually the start of a new 70-80 year super cycle bull market. The three waves up are only Major waves 1-2-3 of Primary wave I of Cycle
wave I of this bull market. The downtrend from 10723.4 to 9789.9 is wave 4 conclude with alternation with the Jun/July downtrend, and hold
the 10% correction, and we are now Major wave 5.Following our count: we are perhaps still in 3 of 5 of I and with the clear of 11135.9 we may
reach 11211.77. For remember Wave I is the start of a super bullish super cycle of 50-70 years and will be followed by a wave II in correction that
may be very profound.
TRACK from April 16th,

RECORD 2010
Current
Currency Long/Short Open price Price Stop Target Open P&L pips Closed P&L Pips Total P&L pips
EUR/USD Flat 0 247 247
CHF/USD Long 1.0901 1.0864 1.0818 1.12 -37 119 82
EUR/CHF Short 1.431 1.4334 1.4387 1.4143 -24 -24
GBP/USD Short 1.5288 1.518 1.5287 1.4780 108 -57 51
AUD/USD Short 0.9155 0.9258 0.9311 0.9004 -103 -117 -220
USD/JPY Long 93.63 94.05 92.81 96.68 42 130 172
EUR/JPY Flat 0 -31 -31
GBP/JPY Short 142.39 143.04 143.8 140.08 -65 18 -47
USD/CAD Flat 0 149 149
TOTAL -79 458 379

Current
Markets Long/Short Open price Price Stop Open P&L points Close P&L pts Total P&L pts
Gold Flat 0.00 -12.3 -12.30
Oil Flat 0.00 0.27 0.27
Dow Jones Flat 0.00 533.6 533.60
Economic Calendar
Thursday, Apr 29, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
00:00 AUD Conference Board Leading -- -0.2%
Index Feb
03:00 NZD Money Supply M3 Y/Y Mar -- -5.1%
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change -10K -31K
Apr
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate 8.0% 8.0%
s.a. Apr
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 s.a. (3M) Mar -0.2% -0.2%
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 s.a. Y/Y Mar -0.1% -0.4%
08:00 EUR Italian Hourly Wages M/M Mar -- 0.0%
08:00 EUR Italian Hourly Wages Y/Y Mar -- 2.1%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence 99.4 97.7
Apr
09:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate -0.12 -0.32
Indicator Apr
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence -15 -15
Apr F
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence -8 -10
Apr
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence 3 1
Apr
12:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity -- -0.64
Index Mar
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 24) 442K 456K
12:30 USD Continuing Claims (APR 17) 4613K 4646K
22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Mar -- 5.9%
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -15 -15

Survey Apr
23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing -- 52.4
PMI Apr
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Apr -2.1% -1.8%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y -2.1% -1.8%
Apr
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Ex Food Energy Y/Y -1.6% -1.2%
Apr
23:30 JPY National CPI Y/Y Mar -1.1% -1.1%
23:30 JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y -1.2% -1.2%
Mar
23:30 JPY National CPI Ex Food Energy -1.1% -1.1%
Y/Y Mar
23:30 JPY Jobless Rate Mar 4.9% 4.9%
23:30 JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio Mar 0.48 0.47
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Mar 0.7% -0.5%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Mar 0.8% -0.7%
P
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Mar 31.1% 31.3%
P
23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks -- -82.0B
(JPY) (APR 23)
23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds -- 435.8B
(JPY) (APR 23)
23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks -- 140.4B
(JPY) (APR 23)
23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds -- 201.2B
(JPY) (APR 23)
Friday, Apr 30, 2010

GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
-- JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10%
01:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales M/M Mar -- -5.2%
01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Mar 0.4% 0.4%
01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit Y/Y Mar 1.9% 1.6%
01:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Mar -0.4% -0.7%
04:00 JPY Vehicle Production Y/Y Mar -- 74.9%
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Mar -5.8% -9.3%
05:00 JPY Annualized Housing Starts Mar 0.826M 0.794M
05:00 JPY Construction Orders Y/Y Mar -- -20.3%
06:45 EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q -- -0.1%
(1Q P)
06:45 EUR French PPI M/M Mar 0.6% 0.1%
06:45 EUR French PPI Y/Y Mar 1.9% 1.0%
08:00 EUR Italian PPI M/M Mar 0.4% 0.1%
08:00 EUR Italian PPI Y/Y Mar 1.5% 0.4%
09:00 EUR Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) 0.2% 0.3%
M/M Apr P
09:00 EUR Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) 1.4% 1.4%
Y/Y Apr P
09:00 EUR Italian HICP M/M Apr P 0.6% 1.5%
09:00 EUR Italian HICP Y/Y Apr P 1.4% 1.4%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Apr 1.5% 1.4%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate 10.0% 10.0%
Mar
09:30 CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator 1.99 1.93
Apr
10:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. 8.6% 8.5%

Mar
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Feb 0.4% 0.6%
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M -- 0.0%
Mar
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M -- 0.4%
Mar
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q1 A 3.4% 5.6%
12:30 USD Personal Consumption Q1 A 3.1% 1.6%
12:30 USD Core PCE Q/Q Q1 A 0.5% 1.8%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q1 A 0.9% 0.5%
12:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q1 0.5% 0.5%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Apr 60.0 58.8
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Apr F 71.0 69.5
14:00 USD NAPM-Milwaukee Apr -- 62
20:15 USD Bloomberg Financial -- 0.5
Conditions Index Apr Apr
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Daily Markets Update

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29 avril 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

Daily Markets Update

Position Strategy: Current position FLAT

DOW JONES INDU. Future June 2010

TRACK from April 16th,

EUR/USD Flat 0 247 247

CHF/USD Long 1.0901 1.0864 1.0818 1.12 -37 119 82

EUR/CHF Short 1.431 1.4334 1.4387 1.4143 -24 -24

GBP/USD Short 1.5288 1.518 1.5287 1.4780 108 -57 51

AUD/USD Short 0.9155 0.9258 0.9311 0.9004 -103 -117 -220

USD/JPY Long 93.63 94.05 92.81 96.68 42 130 172

EUR/JPY Flat 0 -31 -31

GBP/JPY Short 142.39 143.04 143.8 140.08 -65 18 -47

USD/CAD Flat 0 149 149

TOTAL -79 458 379

Gold Flat 0.00 -12.3 -12.30

Oil Flat 0.00 0.27 0.27

Dow Jones Flat 0.00 533.6 533.60

Thursday, Apr 29, 2010

23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -15 -15

Friday, Apr 30, 2010

10:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. 8.6% 8.5%

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