12/8/2015

WhythewestsviewoftheSaudisisshiftingFT.com

December7,20157:08pm

WhythewestsviewoftheSaudisisshifting
GideonRachman

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TheriseofIsis,humanrightsconcernsandlessdependenceonAraboil
aretriggeringchange

omethingischanginginthewestsrelationshipwithSaudiArabia.Youcanreaditinthe
newspapers.Youcanhearitfrompoliticians.Andyoucanseeitinshiftsinpolicy.

HostilearticlesabouttheSaudisarenowstandardfareinthewesternpress.OnSunday,the
maineditorialinTheObserverdenouncedtheUKsrelationshipwithSaudiArabiaasan
unedifyingalliancethatimperilsoursecurity.Twodaysearlier,theBBCrananarticle
highlightinganunprecedentedwaveofexecutionsinSaudiArabia.Acoupleofmonthsago,
ThomasFriedman,arguablythemostinfluentialcolumnistintheUS,labelledtheterrorist
group,Isis,theideologicaloffspringofSaudiArabia.
Politiciansaretakingupsimilarthemes.SigmarGabriel,
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Germanysvicechancellor,hasaccusedSaudiArabiaoffundingIslamistextremisminthewest
andadded:WehavetomakeitcleartotheSaudisthatthetimeoflookingawayisover.Inthe
UK,LordAshdown,aformerleaderoftheLiberalDemocrats,hascalledforaninvestigation
intothefundingofjihadisminBritainandpointedatSaudiArabia.
ThesuddenincreaseinconcernaboutSaudiArabiaisdriven,inlargepart,bytheriseofIsis.
Westernpolicymakersknowthatthebattlewithjihadismisasmuchaboutideologyasguns.
WhentheylookforasourceoftheIsisworldview,theyincreasinglytraceitbacktothe
WahhabiphilosophypromotedbytheSaudireligiousestablishment.
Saudiinfluenceinthewesthasalsobeenweakenedbyotherdevelopments.Theshale
revolutionintheUShasmadethewestlessdependentonSaudioil.Meanwhile,theturmoilin
theMiddleEasthasshoneaharshlightonSaudiforeignpolicy,withparticularcriticism
aimedatthehighlevelofciviliancasualtiescausedbySaudimilitaryinterventioninYemen,
andRiyadhsroleincrushinganuprisinginBahrainin2011.
Forthemoment,however,allthiscriticismhasledonlytomodestadjustmentsinwestern
policy.FortheSaudisthemselves,themostalarmingchangehasbeenPresidentBarack
ObamasdeterminationtosecureanucleardealwithIran,facingdownfierceoppositionfrom
SaudiArabia.BeyondtheIrandeal,however,therehavebeenonlysmall,symbolicgestures,
suchasBritainsdecision,drivenbyhumanrightsconcerns,topulloutofthebiddingfora
contracttoprovidetrainingforprisonsinSaudiArabia.
Overthepast18
monthstheUShas
approvedthesaleof
morethan$24bnof
weaponrytoSaudi
Arabia

WesterncriticsofSaudiArabiawanttoseetheglovescomeoff.
TheyaccusethegovernmentsoftheUKandtheUSofbeinginthrall
toSaudimoney.LordAshdownhaspointedtotheinfluenceofrich
GulfindividualsinBritishpolitics.SaudiArabiaalsoremainsa
crucialmarketforwesternarmsmanufacturers.Overthepast18
monthstheUShasapprovedthesaleofmorethan$24bnof
weaponrytoSaudiArabia.

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Therearealsosolidreasons,thathavelittletodowithmoney,for
continuedwesterncooperationwithSaudiArabia.Thepastfiveyearshavedemonstratedthat
whenbadgovernmentsfallintheMiddleEast,theyareoftenreplacedbysomethingfarworse.
ThemostpowerfulinternalcriticsoftheSaudimonarchyarenotliberalsbuthardline
Islamists.ThefearthatSaudiArabiacouldbecomeyetanotherfailedstatehauntsthewest.
OneseniorUKdiplomatwarns:GetridoftheHouseofSaudandyouwillbescreamingfor
themtocomebackwithinsixmonths.
SaudiArabiasrelationshipwithjihadismisalsocomplex.ItistruethatIslamistsinSaudi
Arabiahaveprovidedideologicalandsometimesfinancialsupportforjihadisaroundtheworld.
ButitisalsotruethattheSaudiroyalfamilyitselfhasbeentargetedbybothIsisandalQaeda.
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WhythewestsviewoftheSaudisisshiftingFT.com

Atthesametime,intelligenceprovidedbytheSaudishasbeencriticalinthwartingsome
terroristplotsinthewest.Asonewesterncounterterrorismofficialputsit:TheSaudisare
sometimesboththesourceoftheproblemandthebestantidotetoit.
SomewesternstrategistsdaydreamaboutditchingtheSaudiallianceinfavourofa
rapprochementwithIran.Ifinternationalpoliticswereachessgame,thismightlooklikea
clevergambit.
Intherealworld,anywesternalliancewithIranisstilladistantprospect.Thereisno
guaranteethatmoderateswillevertrulygaincontrolinTehranand,inthemeantime,Iran
continuestosupplyradicalarmedgroups,suchasHizbollah,andtodestabiliseneighbouring
countries.AllyingwiththelargestShiapowerwouldalsoeffectivelyalienateSunniMuslims
fuellinggroupssuchasIsis.HumanrightsactivistsmightnotethatIranexecutesevenmore
peoplethanSaudiArabia.
AcknowledgingthattherearestillgoodreasonsforthewesttoworkcloselywithSaudiArabia
is,how
ever,notthesameassayingthatnothingshouldchange.Religioustoleranceistheright

issueonwhichtopresstheSaudis.
TherehaslongbeensomethingrepellentlycravenaboutthewesternapproachtotheSaudi
monarchy.TheEuropeansandAmericanshaveacceptedablatantdoublestandard,inwhich
theSaudisareallowedtofundtheirownbrandofreligiousintolerancewhilebanningthe
organisedpracticeofotherreligionsinsideSaudiArabia.
PerhapsitistimetogivetheSaudisachoice:agreetoallowchurches,Hindutemplesand
synagoguestoopeninSaudiArabia,orfacetheendofSaudifundingformosquesinthewest.
gideon.rachman@ft.com
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WhythewestsviewoftheSaudisisshiftingFT.com

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