Americans for Prosperity Poll – Maryland’s First Congressional District

Survey of 400 Likely Voters, MoE +/- 4.9%

Conducted April 25-26, 2010 by Public Opinion Strategies

QA: Are you a registered voter?

• 100% - YES

QB: Are you, or is anyone in your household, employed by a newspaper, television or

radio station, or a political party, or by a candidate for political office?
• 100% - NO

QC: I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election in November 2010 for
Governor, US Congress and various other local offices how likely would you say you are
to vote in the November 2010 election?
• 84% VERY LIKELY
• 16% SOMEWHAT LIKELY

Q1: Before we begin, just to be sure we have a representative sample, in what year were
you born?
• 3% - 18-24 years old
• 11% - 25-34 years old
• 20% - 35-44 years old
• 23% - 45-54 years old
• 18% - 55-64 years old
• 23% - 65 +

Q2: Would you say things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they
pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?
• 30% RIGHT DIRECTION
• 62% WRONG TRACK
• 7% NO OPINION

Q: Now, changing topics for a moment...I would like to read you some names of different
people active in politics here in Maryland. For each one, please tell me, first whether
you've heard of the person; then, if so, please tell me whether you have a favorable or
unfavorable impression of that person. If I name someone you don't know too much
about, just tell me and we'll go on to the next one.

TOTAL HRD OF/ NEVER (DNR)

HRD OF FAV UNFAV NO OPIN HEARD REF

The (FIRST/NEXT) name is... (RANDOMIZE NAMES)

3. Andy Harris
81% 31% 22% 28% 19% –
4. Frank Kratovil
79% 34% 22% 23% 19% 2%

Q5: Which ONE of the following issues is currently MOST important to you in deciding
how to vote for US Congress? (Randomize)
• 28% THE ECONOMY AND JOBS
• 6% SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE
• 7% EDUCATION
• 12% HEALTH CARE
• 6% MORAL VALUES
• 2% TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY
• 18% TAXES AND SPENDING
• 9% BUDGET DEFICITS
• 2% ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION
• 2% THE ENIVRONMENT
• 4% WARS IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN
• 1% NONE
• 2% DON’T KNOW

Q6: Now, thinking ahead to the November elections...If the election for Govenor were
being held today, for whom would you vote... (ROTATE)
• 58% BOB EHRLICH, REPUBLICAN
• 31% MARTIN O’MALLEY, DEMOCRAT
• 9% Undecided (DO NOT READ)
• 2% Refused (DO NOT READ)

Q7: Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Congress...If the election for United States
Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were...
(ROTATE) Andy Harris, Republican, Frank Kratovil, Democrat and Richard Davis,
Libertarian?

(IF CHOICE, ASK:) And would you DEFINITELY vote for (choice) or just
PROBABLY for (choice)?
• 23% DEFINITELY HARRIS
• 16% PROBABLY HARRIS 39% TOTAL HARRIS
• 19% DEFINITELY KRATOVIL
• 17% PROBABLY KRATOVIL 36% TOTAL KRATOVIL
• 3% DEFINITELY DAVIS
• 3% PROBABLY DAVIS 6% TOTAL DAVIS
• * OTHER/INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE (DO NOT READ)
• 18% UNDECIDED (DO NOT READ)
• 1% REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
Q8: As you may have heard, Congress recently passed a law to change the health care
system. Based on what you know, do you favor or oppose the bill recently signed into
law by President Obama?

(IF FAVOR/OPPOSE, ASK:) And do you STRONGLY (favor/oppose) or only

SOMEWHAT (favor/oppose) the bill signed into law by President Obama?
• 21% STRONGLY FAVOR
• 14% SOMEWHAT FAVOR 35% TOTAL FAVOR
• 11% SOMEWHAT OPPOSE
• 46% STRONGLY OPPOSE 58% TOTAL OPPOSE
• 7% DON’T KNOW

Q9: Which of the following phrase comes closest to your opinion of the impact of the
economic stimulus package passed by Congress and signed into law by President Obama
last year?
• 30% The economic stimulus package is working to create jobs and pull the
economy out of the recession.
• 65% The economic stimulus package was just a government spending
program that did not create enough new jobs for the money.
• 4% DON’T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
• 1% REFUSED (DO NOT READ)

Q10: I'm going to read you two statements about the role of government, and I'd like to
know which one comes closer to your point of view....(ROTATE)

Statement A: Government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of
people.

Statement B: Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and
individuals.

(PROMPT:) Which statement comes closest to your opinion?

• 43% GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO MORE
• 53% GOVERNMENT IS DOING TOO MUCH
• 4% DON’T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
• 1% REFUSED (DO NOT READ)

Q11: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the TEA Party Movement, or do
you really know enough about it to have an opinion?

(IF FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE, ASK:) Would that be STRONGLY

(favorable/unfavorable) or just SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable)?
• 22% STRONGLY FAVORABLE
• 13% SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 36% TOTAL FAVORABLE
• 5% SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE
 • 14% STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE 19% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE
• 45% NO OPINION

Q12: In 2007, Gov. Martin O’Malley and the state legislature raised state taxes by $1.3
billion. Do you think the increase in state taxes has helped, hurt, or had no effect on your
area’s economy?
• 8% HELPED
• 39% HURT
• 43% NO EFFECT
• 11% DON’T KNOW

Q13: As you may know, the state of Maryland has a projected eight point three billion
dollar deficit. By law, the state cannot run a deficit and must have a balanced budget. To
balance the budget do you prefer...
• 79% A SPENDING FREEZE
...or..
• 14% A TAX INCREASE
• 6% DON’T KNOW/NO OPINION (DO NOT READ)
• 1% Refused (DO NOT READ)

Q14: Despite how you may feel now, are you REGISTERED to vote as (ROTATE) a
Republican, a Democrat, or something else?

(IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT, ASK) Would you call yourself a STRONG

(Republican/Democrat) or a NOT-SO-STRONG (Republican/Democrat)?

(IF SOMETHING ELSE, ASK) Do you think of yourself as closer to the (ROTATE)
Republican party or the Democratic party?
• 23% STRONG REPUBLICAN
• 19% NOT-SO-STRONG REPUBLICAN 42% TOTAL REPUBLICAN
• 3% LEAN REPUBLICAN
• 9% SOMETHING ELSE/INDEPENDENT/UNDECLARED
• 2% LEAN DEMOCRAT
• 19% NOT-SO-STRONG DEMOCRAT 42% TOTAL DEMOCRAT
• 23% STRONG DEMOCRAT
• 3% REFUSED

Q15: What is your main racial or ethnic heritage? (ACCEPT ONE RESPONSE ONLY)
• 81% CAUCASIAN OR WHITE
• 12% AFRICAN AMERICAN OR BLACK
• 2% HISPANIC
• 1% ASIAN
• 1% OTHER

Q16: Gender?
 • 48% MALE
• 52% FEMALE

Geography: 56% Eastern Shore – 44% Western Shore