Copyright 2016

Kaminsky NY-SD 09 04.16

S1. Are
FILE]?

April 4 - 6, 2016
9461

402 Interviews
Margin of Error: +/- 4.9%

you at least 18 years old and registered to vote at [ADDRESS ON

Yes ..............................................................................................................
100%
No ................................................................................................................
Don't know/Refused ....................................................................................
-

S3.

As you may know, there is an election on April 19th for Presidential

primaries and a special election for New York State Senate. Thinking
specifically about the special election for State Senate, which is being held
to replace former State Senator Dean Skelos, how likely are you to vote in
the special election April 19th? Will you definitely vote, probably vote, are
the chances 50-50, probably not vote, or definitely not vote?

Definitely ......................................................................................................
82%
Probably ......................................................................................................
13
Chance 50-50 ..............................................................................................
4
Probably not ................................................................................................
Definitely not ................................................................................................
Don't Know/Refused ....................................................................................
-

P1. No matter how you may be planning to vote this year, when it comes to

Strong Democrat .........................................................................................

27%
Weak Democrat ...........................................................................................
8
Independent / Closer to the Democrats.......................................................
9
Independent.................................................................................................
12
Independent / Closer to the Republicans ....................................................
7
Weak Republican ........................................................................................
11
Strong Republican .......................................................................................
25
(Don't Know/Refused) .................................................................................
*

politics, do you generally think of yourself as a strong Democrat, not very

strong Democrat, strong Republican, not very strong Republican, or
Independent? [IF INDEPENDENT] Do you think of yourself as closer to the
Democratic Party or the Republican Party?

VOL:

DEMOCRAT (NET) .....................................................................................

35%
INDEPENDENT (NET) ................................................................................
29
REPUBLICAN (NET) ...................................................................................
36

DEMOCRAT W/ LEANERS (NET) ..............................................................

44%
REPUBLICAN W/ LEANERS (NET) ............................................................
43
Q1. If an election for New York State Senate was today, would you vote for
the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? [IF DON'T
KNOW/NOT SURE] But if you had to choose based only on party affiliation,

which way would you lean?

VOL:

Democrat .....................................................................................................
36%
Lean Democrat ............................................................................................
5
Republican...................................................................................................
36
Lean Republican..........................................................................................
7
(Don't know/Refused) ..................................................................................
17

DEMOCRAT (NET) .....................................................................................

41%
REPUBLICAN (NET) ...................................................................................
42

Now I have a list of names, and I would like to get your opinion of each one. Just let me know if there's one you haven't heard of...
FAVORABLE

UNFAVORABLE

NET

Very

Some

Some

Very

(CR)

NH

(DK/Ref.)

FAV

UNFAV

FAMILIAR

21%

29

13

27

50%

40

91

40%

27

67

39%

24

63

Andrew Cuomo.................................................................................................................................................................................
Total

Todd Kaminsky.................................................................................................................................................................................
Total

20%

20

12

15

21

10

Chris McGrath...................................................................................................................................................................................
Total

17%

22

12

12

23

11

Global Strategy Group

9461 Kaminsky NY-SD 09 Tracker #2 04.16

If the Democratic primary election for U.S.

President was today, for which candidate would you vote - Hillary Clinton
or Bernie Sanders? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to decide today, which
way would you lean?
VOL:
Q5. [IF REGISTERED DEMOCRAT]

Page 2/4

Hillary Clinton ..............................................................................................

44%
Lean Hillary Clinton .....................................................................................
3
Bernie Sanders ............................................................................................
26
Lean Bernie Sanders ...................................................................................
2
(Undecided/Refused)...................................................................................
24

CLINTON (NET) ..........................................................................................

48%
SANDERS (NET).........................................................................................
28
Q6. [IF REGISTERED REPUBLICAN] If the Republican primary election for U.S.

President was today and the candidates were Donald Trump, Ted Cruz,
and John Kasich, for whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED] If you had to
decide, which candidate would you lean towards supporting?
VOL:

Donald Trump ..............................................................................................

39%
Lean Donald Trump .....................................................................................
3
Ted Cruz ......................................................................................................
17
Lean Ted Cruz .............................................................................................
2
John Kasich .................................................................................................
28
Lean John Kasich ........................................................................................
1
(Undecided/Refused)...................................................................................
10

TRUMP (NET) .............................................................................................

42%
CRUZ (NET) ................................................................................................
18
KASICH (NET).............................................................................................
30

And if the special election for New York State Senate was today, for
which candidate would you vote - Democrat Todd Kaminsky or
Republican Chris McGrath? [IF UNDECIDED] But if you had to decide today,
which way would you lean?
VOL:
V1.

Todd Kaminsky ............................................................................................

39%
Lean Todd Kaminsky ...................................................................................
7
Chris McGrath .............................................................................................
36
Lean Chris McGrath ....................................................................................
7
(Undecided/Refused)...................................................................................
11

KAMINSKY (NET) .......................................................................................

46%
MCGRATH (NET) ........................................................................................
43

In the special election for New York State Senate this April, is your
mind pretty much made up to vote for [CHOICE] or are you still considering
VOL:
your choices in this election?
VOL:
Q7.

Mind pretty much made up ..........................................................................

64%
Still considering choices ..............................................................................
23
(Not sure) .....................................................................................................
2
(Undecided - Not asked question) ...............................................................
11

SOLID KAMINSKY (NET) ...........................................................................

35%
SOLID MCGRATH (NET) ............................................................................
29
UNDECIDED + MIGHT SWITCH (NET)......................................................
36

Have you seen or heard anything in the past few weeks about Todd
Kaminsky? [IF YES] Has what you have seen or heard been mostly positive
VOL:
or mostly negative?
VOL:
Q8.

VOL:

Yes-Mostly positive......................................................................................
23%
Yes-Mostly negative ....................................................................................
18
(Yes-Mix of positive and negative) ..............................................................
23
(Yes-Don't know/Refused)...........................................................................
4
No ................................................................................................................
32
(Don't know/Refused) ..................................................................................
1

YES (NET) ...................................................................................................

67%
Q9. [IF YES IN Q8] In a few words, what have you seen or heard recently about Todd Kaminsky? [CODING TO FOLLOW]

Global Strategy Group

9461 Kaminsky NY-SD 09 Tracker #2 04.16

Have you seen or heard anything in the past few weeks about Chris
McGrath? [IF YES] Has what you have seen or heard been mostly positive
VOL:
or mostly negative?
VOL:
Q10.

VOL:

Page 3/4

Yes-Mostly positive......................................................................................
23%
Yes-Mostly negative ....................................................................................
15
(Yes-Mix of positive and negative) ..............................................................
18
(Yes-Don't know/Refused)...........................................................................
4
No ................................................................................................................
38
(Don't know/Refused) ..................................................................................
1

YES (NET) ...................................................................................................

61%
Q11. [IF YES IN Q10] In a few words, what have you seen or heard recently about Chris McGrath? [CODING TO FOLLOW]

Now I have just a few final questions for statistical purposes.

D101. In what year were you born?

VOL:

18-29 ...........................................................................................................
6%
30-44 ...........................................................................................................
15
45-54 ...........................................................................................................
24
55-64 ...........................................................................................................
22
65+...............................................................................................................
28
(Refused) .....................................................................................................
5

VOL:

Did not complete high school ......................................................................

1%
Graduated high school ................................................................................
10
Attended technical/vocational school ..........................................................
*
Attended some college but no degree.........................................................
12
Graduated two-year college with Associate's degree .................................
10
Graduated four-year college with Bachelor's degree ..................................
31
Obtained Master's, PhD, or other professional degree ...............................
34
(Refused) .....................................................................................................
2

VOL:

Yes-Respondent ..........................................................................................
23%
Yes-Household ............................................................................................
10
No ................................................................................................................
65
(Refused) .....................................................................................................
2

What is the last grade of school or level of education you

completed?
D102.

Are you or is anyone in your household an active or retired member

of a labor union?
D103.

YES (NET) ...................................................................................................

33%
D105. When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as:

VOL:

Very liberal ...................................................................................................

9%
Somewhat liberal .........................................................................................
16
Moderate .....................................................................................................
33
Somewhat conservative ..............................................................................
25
Very conservative ........................................................................................
14
(Refused) .....................................................................................................
3

LIBERAL (NET) ...........................................................................................

25%
CONSERVATIVE (NET) ..............................................................................
39

May I ask your religious background? Are you Protestant, Catholic,

Jewish, Muslim or something else?
D200.

VOL:
VOL:
VOL:
VOL:

Protestant/Christian .....................................................................................
13%
Catholic ........................................................................................................
45
Jewish..........................................................................................................
19
Muslim .........................................................................................................
*
(Mormon/Latter Day Saints) ........................................................................
(Other) .........................................................................................................
7
(None/Atheist/Agnostic) ...............................................................................
6
(Refused) .....................................................................................................
9

Global Strategy Group

9461 Kaminsky NY-SD 09 Tracker #2 04.16

To ensure we have a representative sample, could you please tell

me your race? [IF BLACK/WHITE/OTHER] Do you consider yourself Hispanic,
Latino, or Spanish-speaking American?
D300.

VOL:

Page 4/4

Black/African-American ...............................................................................
8%
White/Caucasian .........................................................................................
79
Hispanic/Latino ............................................................................................
6
Asian-American ...........................................................................................
*
Native American ..........................................................................................
Other (SPECIFY) .........................................................................................
1
(Refused) .....................................................................................................
6

Gender [BY OBSERVATION]

Male .............................................................................................................
46%
Female.........................................................................................................
54

Party Registration [FROM SAMPLE]

Democrat .....................................................................................................
41%
Independent/Other.......................................................................................
19
Republican...................................................................................................
41

Region [FROM SAMPLE]

AD 20 ...........................................................................................................
42%
AD 21 ...........................................................................................................
37
Other ............................................................................................................
21