REORAGANISATION PROPOSAL FOR UWSS BHINDER

TEHSIL- VALLABHNAGAR DISTRICT- UDAIPUR (RAJ.)

DESIGN OF POPULATION
The population of town Bhinder in previous decades is as per below:S.No.
Decade
Population
Increase in population from previous Percentage rate
decade (x)
of increase
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

6443
7317
8282
9860
12166
14739
16368
Total
Average increase per decade
Geometric mean of % increase
Average of increamental increase
(A)

1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001

91
613
728
267
-944
755

16.28
151

Pop.2001+Avg increase in 1 decade

Pop.2001+Avg increase in 2 decade
Pop.2001+Avg increase in 3 decade
Pop.2001+Avg increase in 4 decade

1654.17 souls /decade

18022 Souls
19676 Souls
21331 Souls
22819 Souls

GEOMETRICAL PROGRESSION METHOD

Geometric mean of increase

( C)

13.57
13.19
19.05
23.39
21.15
11.05

ARITHMETICAL PROGRESSION METHOD

Average increase per decade
Population of the year 2011
Population of the year 2021
Population of the year 2031
Population of the year 2040

(B)

874
965
1578
2306
2573
1629
9925
1654.17

Incremental
increase (y)

16.28 %

Population of the year 2011

Pop.2001*(1+rg) (n = No. of decade)

19033 Souls

Population of the year 2021

Pop.2001*(1+rg) (n = No. of decade)

22132 Souls

Population of the year 2031

Population of the year 2040

Pop.2001*(1+rg) (n = No. of decade)

Pop.2001*(1+rg)n (n = No. of decade)

25736 Souls
29478 Souls

INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD

Avg. increase in pop /decade(x)
Incremental increase (y)
Population of the year 2011
Pop.2001+(n*x)+n(n+1)*y/2
Population of the year 2021
Pop.2001+(n*x)+n(n+1)*y/2
Population of the year 2031
Pop.2001+(n*x)+n(n+1)*y/2
Population of the year 2040
Pop.2001+(n*x)+n(n+1)*y/2
Present population (2007)
Designed Year to be considered ( Detail as mentioned below)
Population forcasted as per above methods for the year 2040

1654.17
151
18173 Souls
20129 Souls
22237 Souls
24262 Souls
18191 Souls
2040 Census
29478 Souls

The Urban Water Supply Scheme Bhinder was earlier augmented vide FC 446 th meeting Dt 19.4.2002
(Amount Rs 105.01 Lacs) & Revised cost Rs143.42 Lacs. The scheme was augmented for only production
part . there is no any provision taken for distribution side , because at that time the scheme was suffering
for less production, but now the scheme is suffering from low pressure (distribution & storage) as well as
required of coverage of newly developed area and other habitations located nearby the main habitation
under Municipal boundaries.
In the proposal , the designed period is taken for 30 years i.e. upto census year 2040 taking one year for
according Administrative & finantial sanction and issuing technical sanction & two year for execution
period. So the designed year taken as census year 2040. The projected population for the year 2040 has
been calculated by adopting various method mentioned in CPHEEO manual on water supply 1999. looking
to the above method's results and population in previous decades following conclusions are to be
considered:1 In the past decades the population growth rate is averagly 16.28 % per decade.
2 The population increase during 1971 (9860 souls) to 2001 ( 16368 souls) i.e. during 30 years is 6508
souls on 9860 souls i.e. about 66% . So looking to the pace of growth of population of the town, the
geometrical progression method for forcasting population for this town & projected population 29478
souls is very much appropriate for the year 2040.
3 It is also mentioned that most developing part of the town is nearby the railway station, at where the
Offices of Panchayat samiti, Naib Tehsildar, AVVNL, GSS(33KV), Krishi Upaj Mandi Samiti, CDPO, LIC
& Forest department etc are situated. Recently Nagar palika has also developed a new housing colony in
this area. Mahaveer Nagar, Nakoda colony & New abadi near Petrol pump are also being developed .The
above said locality is situated in rural area ( under Gram panchayat Chargadiya), but major part of the
locality is fed from infrastucture of Urban water supply scheme Bhinder.

4 The village under Gram Panchyat Chargadiya namely as Fouj Badli is situated in main habitation of town
Bhinder while The village Gopalpura is also near Railway station, both villages will be merged in the town
in near future & will caused in sudden increase in population of the town. So the geometrical progression
method for forcasting population for this town is taken for consideration & designed population will be
taken for the year 2040 as 29478 souls for further designing of various infrastructure of water supply
system.

Junior Engineer
PHED Section Bhinder

Assistant Engineer
PHED Sub Dn Bhinder