THE

PEACEFULLY OR A THREAT?

Mid 20th century

Communist
revolution under
1950 1976 Mao Zedong.

From revolution
to reform

1976-present

The
reformation
phase

(Jaggi et al, 1996)

2

BEHIND THE
Realist

Liberals

Constructivist

Every nation strive

for power

Behavior of China
can be modified

Impact of China rise

depends on how
China see itself

Rise of Chinadangerous- disturb

international
balance of power

By its integration
into world markets
and spreading of
democratic
principles

Whether it can act

as a normal member
of the world
community
3

Peaceful

Policy

Introduced under the Zheng Bijian and Hu Jintao

administration in 2003
Appear on international prominence as a
responsible, peaceable, and nonthreatening
global power

Peaceful rise of China

is

possible
(Buzan, 2010)

VS

Can China rise

peacefully? My answer
is

NO

(Mearsheimer, 2006)
4

Various unique diplomatic medium. E.g. Panda

Diplomacy & Pingpong Diplomacy.

Politic

Transformation of technologyexpansion of internet (computer

networking, software,internet
protocol)

It is

Technology

PEACEFUL.Why?

Economy

Assist in stabilizing
the global financial
system during
financial crisis in 1997
and 1998.

Social
Documentary The Rise of Great Nation .
The gist - strength of a nation rely on the
economy, not the empire or war.

It is a
Implication of hegemony
theoryChina Sea dispute
South

THREAT.Why?

Civil-Military gap
Japans and Koreas perception
Proponents of China Threat Theory 6

Theory Of Great Power Politics

Implication of

HEGEMONYtheory

Goals to Survive
Mightiest states attempt to establish
hegemony
Assumptions
Anarchy + Offensive military +
Uncertain intentions + Principal goal
to survive+ States as rational actors
3 forms of behaviour
Fear + Self- Help + Power Seeking

Theorys Application to the U.S.A

foreign policy

Manifest Destiny
Expansionist power
Monroe Doctrine
Defeated and dismantled aspiring
hegemons
Defense Guidance of 1992
- Declare as most powerful state in
the world
National Security Strategy of
2002
- Check on the rising powers and
maintain commanding positions

How would China react??

Chinas very own version of the Monroe Doctrine
American-led balancing coalition to check Chinas rise
Barrack Obama Pivoting to Asia
The Security Dilemma
The PRC policy toward Taiwan (Anti-Secession Law)
Civil Military gap
Incendiary military actions e.g. missile tests,
military aircraft collision, anti-satellite test
Aggressive statements

Taiwan independence means war.

Wang Zaixi,
Taiwan Affairs Office

[Interference of USA in a Taiwan scenario]

Americans will have to be prepared that
hundreds of cities will be destroyed by the
Chinese
General Zhu Chenghu
7

Proponents
China Threat Theory
Increase
military
spending

Goal of achieving
paramount status in Asia.

Developing long-range
missiles and powerprojection capabilities, and
trying to purchase an
aircraft carrier.

Ultimate
ambition
Chinas various
internal crisis

Crises :
Food , rural, population , resources
and environment
heavy burden to the entire world.
8

Dispute
in South China Sea
Sovereignty over the Spratly & Paracel
islands has been hotly contested by five
nations including China (Shen, 2002).
China lays claim to almost all of the entire
South China Sea, believed to be rich with
minerals and oil-and-gas deposits (Reuters,
2014) .
Chinas control over South China Sea is
perceived as a way to achieve a position of
great power through resources exploitation
(Yee, 2011).
9

10

CONCLUSION

In our point of view, the rise of China is NOT A PEACEFUL one as per
claimed by its government and politicians. It seems that China is the
only party who claimed that they are peaceful, and not being backed by
others.
11

REFERENCE
Buzan, B. (2010). China in International Society: Is Peaceful Rise Possible? The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 5-36.
Gautam Jaggi, M. R. (1996). China's Economic Reforms: Chronology and Reforms. Institute for International Economics.
Mersheimer, J. J. (April 2006). China's Unpeaceful Rise. Current History, 160-162.

Teba, B. A. (2002). Is the Rise of China is Security Threat? Peking University.

News World. (2014). China builds an island in disputed sea. Retrieved from http://www.melfortjournal.com/2014/11/26/chinabuilds-an-island-in-disputed-sea on 7 January 2015
Shen, J. (2002). China's Sovereignty over the South China Sea Islands: A Historical Perspective. Chinese Journal of International Law.
Suettinger, R. L. (n.d.). The Rise and Descent of Peaceful Rise. China Leadership Monitor
Yee, A. (2011). Maritime Territorial Disputes in East Asia: A Comparative Analysis of the South China Sea and the East China Sea.
Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, 40, 2, 165-193.
A. Scobell (2009). Is There a Civil-Military Gap in China's Peaceful Rise? retrieved
from http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/Articles/09summer/scobell.pdf
John J. Mearsheimer (2004). Why China's Rise Will Not Be Peaceful retrieved from
mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/A0034b.pdf

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