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Intelligent Tools for Policy Design

Deliverable 4.1 FUPOL Simulator Software


Requirements Report

Project Reference No.

287119

Deliverable No.

D 4.1

Relevant workpackage:

WP 4

Nature:

Report

Dissemination Level:

Public

Document version:

Final

Editor(s):

Egils Ginters

Contributors:

Susanne Sonntagbauer, Egils Ginters, Dace Aizstrauta, Artis Aizstrauts,


Andris Lapans, Visvaldis Valtenbergs, Inita Sakne, Girts Dreija, Miquel
Angel Piera Eroles, Wang Boyong, Mujica-Mota Miguel-Antonio, Shaun
Topham, Gary Jones, Gary Simpson, Jonathan Gay, Nikolaus Rumm,
Elizabeta Knorr, Silvana Tomic-Rotim

Document description:

The document comprises prerequisites and recommendations related to


selection of simulation tools for policy modelling determined by specific
policy domains, core platform architecture as well as potential structure
and operation of FUPOL Simulator. Review of generic simulation tools and
specific software packages and projects of policy modelling is done.

History
Version

Date

Reason

Prepared / Revised by

0.1

08-02-2012

Initial version

Egils Ginters

0.2

09-02-2012

Content is added

Egils Ginters

0.3

10-02-2012

Structure is defined

Egils Ginters

0.4

15-02-2012

User Interface (GUI) Requirements added

Ieva Lauberte, Girts Dreija

0.5

05-03-2012

Andris Lapans

0.6

07-03-2012

Dace Aizstrauta

0.7

07-03-2012

Spatial Data Use: Geographic Information


Systems (GIS) Platform Requirements
Policy Modeling Basement Land Use Models
and Simulation Techniques
FUPOL Simulator Assessment Questionnaire

0.8

09-03-2012

Agent-based simulation tools

Ieva Lauberte

0.9

25-04-2012

Generic Simulation Software Tools Review

Egils Ginters, Ieva Lauberte

0.10

30-04-2012

TOC modified

Egils Ginters

0.11

30-04-2012

Agent-based

simulation

software

tools

Visvaldis Valtenbergs

Egils Ginters

assessment
0.12

05-05-2012

Cellular automatons vs. agent-based simulation

Ieva Lauberte

tools
0.13

16-05-2012

Land-use modelling software packages analysis

Egils

Ginters,

Dace

Aizstrauta
0.14

18-05-2012

TOC actualised

Egils Ginters

0.15

21-05-2012

GIS part

Andris Lapans, Egils Ginters

0.16

05-06-2012

Agent-Based software tools assessment is

Egils

modified

Aizstrauts
Ieva Lauberte, Girts Dreija

0.17

05-06-2012

Transport and movement is added

0.18

06-06-2012

Simulation

technologies

classification;

System

and

related

dynamics

tools

Ginters,

Artis

Egils Ginters

simulation

software
0.19

07-06-2012

Discrete-event simulation tools and Annex 5

Egils

added. Micro analytical simulation software

Valtenbergs

and

Multi

level

simulation

tools

Ginters,

Visvaldis

added.

Learning and evolutionary models simulation is


added.
0.20

09-06-2012

Core platform requirements is added

Nikolaus

Rumm,

Egils

Ginters, Andris Lapns


0.21

11-06-2012

FUPOL application domains prerequisites

Mujica-Mota

Miguel-

Antonio, Miquel Angel Piera


Eroles
0.22

12-06-2012

Conclusions: Generic simulation software tools

Egils Ginters

use for FUPOL simulator designing

0.23

13-06-2012

Combined policy modelling packages

Ieva Lauberte, Girts Greija,

Policy domains requirements validation

Visvaldis Valtenbergs,
Wang Boyong, Shaun
Topham, Gary Jones, Gary
Simpson, Jonathan Gay,
Nikolaus Rumm, Elizabeta
Knorr, Silvana Tomic-Rotim

0.24

13-06-2012

Conclusions: Domain oriented policy simulation

Egils Ginters, Ieva Lauberte

software packages
0.25

15-06-2012

Informal settlement

Mujica-Mota

Miguel-

Antonio, Miquel Angel Piera


Eroles
0.26

16-06-2012

Industrialization of edgeland

Mujica-Mota

Miguel-

Antonio, Miquel Angel Piera


Eroles
0.27

0.28

09-08-2012

13-08-2012

Preliminary Architecture of FUPOL Simulatot

Egils

Ginters,

Artis

software

Aizstrauts

Urban segregation and inclusion. Sustainable

Miquel Angel Piera Eroles

tourism. Industrualization of edgelands.


0.29

14-08-2012

Recommendations

0.30

12-09-2012

Simulator

and spatial data

Egils Ginters
processing is

Ieva Lauberte, Egils Ginters

modified. Use cases added.


0.32

23-09-2012

Edited

Girts Dreija, Egils Ginters

Table of Content

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................7

INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................11

2.1

Purpose of the Document ....................................................................... 11

2.2

Target group ......................................................................................... 12

2.3

Benefits ................................................................................................ 12

2.4

Structure of the document ..................................................................... 12

POLICY DOMAIN REQUIREMENTS FOR SIMULATION SOFTWARE .......13


3.1

3.1.1

Land use conceptual model ............................................................. 14

3.1.2

Sustainable tourism ......................................................................... 27

3.1.3

Urban segregation and inclusion ...................................................... 32

3.1.4

Industrialization of edgeland ............................................................ 36

3.1.5

Informal settlements ....................................................................... 42

3.2

FUPOL Application Domains Preliminary Use Cases and Prerequisites ........ 13

Validation of Policy Domain Requirements ............................................... 46

3.2.1

Validation of main domains .............................................................. 47

3.2.2

Impact assessment ......................................................................... 47

3.2.3

Main factors to be considered .......................................................... 48

3.2.4

Evaluation of simulation properties................................................... 48

3.2.5

Expectations for the simulator interface ............................................ 50

3.2.6

Final reflections .............................................................................. 51

TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS FOR THE SIMULATION SOFTWARE

PLATFORM....................................................................................................51
4.1

The Preliminary Architecture of FUPOL Simulator Software ....................... 51

4.2

Core Platform Requirements ................................................................... 54

4.2.1

General requirements for Simulator interoperability ........................... 55

4.2.2

Simulator and spatial data processing .............................................. 56


4

4.3

FUPOL Simulator Desktop User Interface (GUI) Requirements .................. 62

4.4

Assessment criteria for generic tools and policy model simulation

software packages ........................................................................................... 73


5

REVIEW OF GENERIC SIMULATION SOFTWARE TOOLS .......................76


5.1

Classification of simulation technologies and related tools ........................ 76

5.2

System dynamics simulation software ..................................................... 79

5.3

Discrete-event systems simulation tools .................................................. 83

5.4

Assessment of agent-based simulation software tools .............................. 87

5.5

Cellular automaton software ................................................................... 97

5.5.1

Cellular automatons vs. ABM simulation tools ................................... 97

5.5.2

Cellular automaton generic software tools ........................................ 99

5.6

Micro analytical simulation software ...................................................... 103

5.7

Multi level simulation tools ................................................................... 106

5.8

Learning and evolutionary models simulation ........................................ 107

5.9

Conclusions: Generic simulation software tools used for FUPOL

simulator designing........................................................................................ 110


6

DOMAIN ORIENTED SIMULATION SOFTWARE PACKAGES ................ 112


6.1

Land-use modelling software packages analysis..................................... 112

6.1.1

UrbanSim ..................................................................................... 116

6.1.2

Metronamica ................................................................................. 121

6.1.3

WhatIf? ........................................................................................ 125

6.1.4

FEARLUS model ............................................................................ 129

6.1.5

LandUse Scanner .......................................................................... 133

6.1.6

SLEUTH ........................................................................................ 136

6.2

Other domains policy simulation packages review .................................. 141

6.2.1

Transport and movement .............................................................. 141

6.2.2

Combined policy modelling packages.............................................. 161

6.3

Policy modelling software European project platforms ............................ 180

6.3.1

ET2050 ........................................................................................ 181

6.3.2

MOLAND ...................................................................................... 182

6.3.3

BRIDGE ........................................................................................ 184


5

6.3.4

TESS ............................................................................................ 186

6.3.5

FIRMA .......................................................................................... 186

6.4

Conclusions: Domain oriented policy simulation software packages......... 187

RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................................................... 189

REFERENCES ....................................................................................... 192

ANNEX 1: LIST OF CONSIDERED LAND-USE MODELS ....................... 214

10

ANNEX 2: COMPARATIVE SUMMARY TABLES OF LAND-USE

SIMULATORS............................................................................................. 226
11

ANNEX 3: TRANSPORT POLICY SIMULATION PACKAGES .............. 228

12

ANNEX 4: COMBINED POLICY SIMULATION PACKAGES ................ 240

13

ANNEX 5: FUPOL SIMULATOR EXPECTATIONS ASSESSMENT

QUESTIONNAIRE ...................................................................................... 245


14

ANNEX

6:

VALIDATION

OF

REQUIREMENTS

OF

FUPOL

SIMULATOR FUNCTIONALITY AND INTERFACE IN LAND USE AND


CITY PLANNING ........................................................................................ 258

1 List of Abbreviations
ABM

Agent-based modelling

AGG

Map Server data display technology

ANN

Artificial Neural Networks

ASCII

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

BASIC

Programming language

BMP

Bitmap image file

C/C++

Programming language

CA

Cellular Automata

CAD

Computer-aided design

CO

Carbon monoxide

CO2

Carbon dioxide

COM

Component Object Model (a binary interface standart for


softwarecomponentry)

CSV

File extension: Comma-separated values

CVS

Concurrent Versioning System (version control system software


which keeps track of all work and all changes in a file)

dBASE

Database management system

Delphi
DEVS

Discrete event systems

DGN

CAD file format supported by Bentley Systems Microstation and


Intergraphs Interactive Graphics Design System

DXF

Drawing Exhamge Format (CAD data file format)

ED

Enterprise Dynamics (object-oriented discrete event software)

EPSON

European Observation Network for Territorial Development and


Cohesion

ESB

Enterprise service bus

FCM

Fusion concept maps

FIFO

First in, first out (queue discipline)

FoxPro

text-based procedurally oriented programming language and


database management system
7

FP7

The

Seventh

Framework

Programme

for

Research

and

Technological Development. This is the EU's main instrument for


funding research in Europe and it will run from 2007-2013.
FUPOL

Future policy modeling. Research project for developing


advanced information and communication technology tools to
support policy design and implementation. FUPOL aims at a
completely new approach to traditional politics.

GA

Genetic Algorithms

GeoTiff

A public domain metadata standard which allows georeferencing


information to be embedded within a TIFF file

GIF

Graphics Interchange Format

GIS

Geographic Information System

GML

Geography Markup Language (the XML grammar defined by the


Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) to express geographical
features)

GP

Genetic Programming

GUI

Graphical user interface

HC

High Hydrocarbon

HCM

American Highway Capacity Manual


Hillshade. Software package, commonly known as the Clarke
Cellular Automata Urban Growth Model or as the Clarke Urban
Growth Model.

GUI

User Interface

HT

High tech industry

HTTP

Hypertext Transfer Protocol Secure

IS

Informal settlements (ghettos, shantytowns, slums, favelas or


squatter settlements)

JAR

Java archive file format

JAVA

Programming language

JGAP

Genetic Algorithms and Genetic Programming component


provided as a Java framework.

JPG/JPEG

Joint Photographic Experts Group (image file format)


8

KML

Keyhole Markup Language (an XML notation for expressing


geographic annotation and visualization)

LCD

Less Developed Countries

LIFO

Last in, first out (queue discipline)

LUCC

Land use and cover change

MAS

Multi Agent System

MDB

ESRI Personal GeoDatabase file format

MrSID

Multiresolution seamless image database

MSM

Microanalytical simulation models

MySQL

Open-sourc relational database management system

NITF

National Imagery Transmission Format

NOx

Nitrogen oxide

ODBC

Open database connectivity (standard C programming language


interface for accessing database management systems

OGC

Open GIS Consortium

OGR

Vector graphics file format

OSM

OpenStreetMap (a collaborative project to create a free editable


map of the world)

PASCAL

Programming language

PDF

Portable Document Format

PMx

Particulate matter

PNG

Portable Network Graphics (a bitmap image file format)

PostgreSQL Open-source object relational database management system


Python

Programming language

RIKS

Research Institute for Knowledge Systems

RL

Reinforcement Learning

SD

Systems dynamic simulation

SDK

Software Development Kit

SHP

ESRI shapefile (popular geospatial vector data format)

SIC

Standard Industrial Classification tables

SLD

Styled Layer Descriptor

SLEUTH

Slope, Land Use, Exclusion, Urban Extent, Transportation, and


9

SOS

Sensor Observation Service

SQL

Special-purpose programming language for managing data in


relational database management systems

SQLite

Database management system

SRID

Spatial Reference Identifier (coordinate system identifier)

SVG

Scalable Vector Graphics

TESS

Transactional Environmental Support System

TI

Trade industy

TIFF

Tagged Image File Format

TXT

Text file

UGM

Urban growth model

VBA

Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications

VRM

Vendor relationship management

WFS

Web Feature Service (vector format)

WMS

Web Map Service (raster format)

XML

Extensible Markup Language (markup language that defines a


set of rules for encoding documents)

10

2 Introduction
2.1 Purpose of the Document
Policy modelling as the object of research is versatile and complex. Policy
models depending on the domain could be described as discrete or
continuous, and determined or stochastic systems. For simulation of the
above-mentioned models different simulation tools could be used. These
would be generic
ic or specialized simulation packages. The objective of this
document is to elaborate the requirements for selection of suitable simulation
tools for FUPOL Simulator designing based on policy domain and technical
prerequisites to simulation software.
Deliverable
erable D4.1 has prescribed dependencies among deliverables of other
work packages (see Figure 2.1).
2.1

Figure 2.1: Dependenciess among deliverables (see D2.1)

Deliverables D2.1 and D2.2 are the source of policy domains set and
corresponding
orresponding to potential use case models specified in formal (CPN, for
example) and explained in natural language.
11

Deliverables D3.1 and D3.2 are the source of formal requirements for
collaboration with the FUPOL core platform and GIS tools.

2.2 Target group


Target group is FUPOL simulator software designers, policy and subject
matter support area experts who will use the simulator to evaluate the
feasibility of political decisions.

2.3 Benefits
This deliverable contributes to a better understanding of features of FUPOL
simulator software: functionality and architecture. The deliverable gives
insight into simulation software: generic and specialized. The report is the
base for the selection of suitable simulation tools for the designing of the
FUPOL Simulator.

2.4 Structure of the document


The document consists of the following main parts. The first part deals with
policy

domain

requirements

for

simulation

software.

Beneficiaries

expectations for the FUPOL Simulator are analyzed and validated to avoid
mistakes in the selection of suitable and sustainable simulation tools.
Constraints of policy model specification are discussed. The second part
summarizes technical requirements for the simulation platform. These are
prerequisites for the core platform, spatial data modelling, and GUI, potential
architecture of the FUPOL Simulator and specific simulation features as a
special kind of modelling.
The third part reviews existing generic simulation tools, but part four is
comprised of analysis of specialized simulation and modelling packages and
projects related to different domains of FUPOL policy domains. Further
recommendations related to simulation platform selection are given.

12

3 Policy

Domain

Requirements

for

Simulation

Software
3.1 FUPOL Application Domains Preliminary Use Cases and
Prerequisites
FUPOL aims at a new approach to traditional politics. Major innovations like
multichannel social computing and crowd sourcing will change the way
politicians communicate with citizens and enterprises and make decisions. The
system will be able to automatically collect, analyze and interpret opinions
expressed on a large scale from the Internet. This will enable governments to
gain a better understanding of the needs of citizens. Likewise the software
will have the capabilities to simulate the effects of policies and laws on
different domains and to assist governments in the whole policy design
process (http://www.fupol.eu).

Due to the European city and urban planning strategies the domains specified
below could be simulated in the FUPOL project. The reviewed political areas
are:

Urban Planning;

Land Use;

Economy;

Housing

Shopping and Services;

Community Facilities;

Infrastructure;

Waste Management;

Transport and Movement;

Consumer Protection;

Urban Segregation;

Consumer Production;

Migration;
13

Active Inclusion;

Safety and Security;

Health (care);

Social Affairs;

Education;

Research and Innovation;

City Treasury.

More detailed the domains are discussed on WP2. In D2.1 the set of domains
are declared:

Land use (full);

Housing (full);

Urban segregation (full);

City treasury (full);

Environment (selected topics);

Economy (basics);

Transport and movement (basics);

Tourism (basics);

Community facilities (basics).

Each domain has prescribed specifics and can be specified as a system. The
systems would be different: discrete or continuous, determined or stochastic
etc. The model must conform to the essence of the system. This creates
appropriate constraints and requirements to the set of simulation tools. The
most detailed specifics and scenarious of some use cases related to selected
domains are analysed in D7.2. In the current chapter some samples of
domain uses cases and conceptual models will be analyzed to understand the
complexity and specifics of modelling to help in selection of simulation tools.
3.1.1 Land use conceptual model
Land is used to meet a multiplicity and variety of human needs and to serve
numerous, diverse purposes. When the users of land decide to employ its
14

resources towards different purposes, land use change occurs producing both
desirable and undesirable impacts (Briassoulis, 2003).
During the previous decades (the history of simulation models of land use
dates to the late 1950s (Iacano et al, 2008), several land use models have
been created and validated. They combine land use analysis with different
processes like housing, transportation, environment protection, demography,
etc.
As analytical tools, land use models provide an understanding of the causes
and consequences of land use changes and thus the functioning of the land
use system. They may be used to analyze different scenarios of future land
use changes and support land use planning and policy analysis (Fang and
Soon, 2006). A summary of methodological characteristics of land use
modelling can be found in Table 3.1.
Table 3.1: Methodological characteristics of land use modelling (Lemp et al, 2008)

End result of process

Forecast of future land use based on historical trends (multiple runs may be
needed to generate an average forecast, due to simulation variations).

Problem-solving approach

Reactive: Design strategies based on past market and demographic forces

Adaptability

Land-use models are well-suited for adaptation to many changing needs


and regional factors.

Feasibility of results

Depends on the continuity of historical trends. Modelers may intervene to


simulate unexpected macro scale events (such as recession and expansion).

Data required

Required data varies across land-use models. Behaviorally based models


generally need large amounts of historical land-use/cover data along with
extensive data manipulation.

Expertise required

Substantial statistical training and, typically, computing expertise.

Land use scenario and regional development modelling is especially important


in larger cities, urban and metropolitan areas, where issues connected with
housing, transportation, other vehicles, traffic lights, parking, public facilities,
etc. arise as the structure of the territorial unit changes. The complex
15

structure of different policy decisions concerning urban development, different


stakeholders with sometimes incompatible aims and large amounts of
recourses connected with that make the decision making process rather
complicated. Figure 3.2 shows the connections among different markets in
the urban policy making system.

Figure 3.2: Linked Urban Markets (Waddell and Ulfarsson, 2004).

The range of policies and strategies under potential consideration by


metropolitan areas to address transportation needs has essentially exploded
over the past two decades, from a fairly narrow focus on highway capacity
expansion to a multi-modal
modal transportation
transportation capacity and demand management
and land use policies. The objectives for operational urban land use and
transportation models have consequently grown (Waddell
Waddell and Ulfarsson,
Ulfarsson
2004).
As already introduced in D2.1, an important urban land policy issue in
i some
present European Cities, is the fact that some cities are no longer growing (ie.
Germany), they are stable or shrinking (driven by a shrinking population
trend). Consequently the change backwards is a policy issue of growing
16

importance. This is much more difficult, because it means the destruction of


buildings (or their reduction in size) and other related infrastructure.
As an example, in Eastern Germany apartments (owned by the state) have
been partly destroyed and replaced by green areas, since the occupancy rate
was too low.

Thus, Open Space land use models have been identified as an important
use case in present European urban land problems, in which digital simulation
could be used to foster citizens e-participation as a decision support neutral
tool in which different alternatives could be compared.
The land open space causal simulation model will consider a Multi Agent
System (MAS) modelling approach that makes use of Cellular Automata (CA)
driving forces ideas to validate different citizens opinions. The modelling
framework would enable the exploration of open space land use change in
cities considering not only autonomous developments, but also external
factors, and policy measures using structured what-if analyses. By combining
autonomous developments with policy-induced changes to form integral
pictures of possible futures for the area being modelled, its relative value on
open space land use changes considering the social and economic aspects
that drive neighbourhood behaviour. With a highly dynamic and autonomous
process, this approach thereby has its advantage for the integrative, flexible
and interactive nature.
The core component of the open space model is a set of agents that
represent both: the needs of citizens and space distributed infrastructure
capacities. Space is represented as a regular grid, in which each cell indicates
the dominant land use in that area. Examples of land use urban agent classes
include residential area, industry, commerce, green areas, transport services
and leisure centres among others. Regarding citizens agents, they have been
parameterized to describe their affinity to different land use changes,
according to its social and economical reality and a stochastic behaviour
implemented to accept different affinities according to cultural differences.
17

Starting with a given GIS of the area under study, the model would generate
a specified number of cells for each land use described and a specified
amount of citizens agents with socio-economical information. Space agents
and Citizen agents compete to occupy the open space for the most efficient
use. The notion of most efficient use is modelled through total potential as a
numerical value that considers not only agent affinities and interactions, but
also the physical distance between agents and the open space area under
study. Total potential is computed as a function of the negative influence of
land use that occurs within the neighbourhood of a cell and the citizens
affinities. All of these factors need to be calibrated on the basis of historic
land changes and/or expert knowledge.

In order to demonstrate the driving forces of change in the spatial


configuration of the area, it employs a layered model that operates with
citizen agents at two levels:

Agent interactions by affinity: Citizens used to interact with other


citizens who live in other neighbourhood areas by sharing common
activities, facilities or areas of interest. It is well known that afterschool socialization is an important activity that fosters different citizen
relationships. Thus, agents with similar affinities interact under certain
weighted rules such as:
o When a certain amount of agents score highly a certain option,
and the other agents in the evaluation group dont show a high
score on no other option, the former agents act as a leading
group influencing the other agents opinions;

Agent interaction by proximity: Neighbourhoods used to interact


sometimes positively, sometimes negatively by daily activities, such as
shopping for fresh products, taking a breakfast coffee when leaving for
work, or taking a beer late afternoon. So, agents placed in a
neighbourhood area interact by a set of behavioural rules.
18

Agent affinities are weighted considering their social and economical factors,
and their residential and labour location with respect to the open area under
study. Thus, citizen agents placed above a certain boundary distance of the
open space area can be less motivated to influence the final decision that
citizen agents, which are placed bellow a certain distance, could be much
more active defending.

Spatial agents also affect the total potential, considering the land uses that
occur within the neighbourhood of a cell and its distance to the open space
area under study. Thus, if several schools or any other infrastructure such as
a transport station are located nearby the open space area, spatial agents
generate a negative potential against a facility that already exists in the
nearby area. The potential is evaluated through space agent interactions
according to some causal rules implemented as infrastructure behavioural
dependencies.

The global level figures for the expected changes on overall population,
economic incomes, employment skills and cultural and educational new trends
are considered in the model as exogenous factors that can drastically affect
the expected most efficient use of an open space. Exogenous factors are
modelled as boundary conditions which can be easily changed as parameters
by the simulation model end-user. These exogenous factors will play an
important to engage citizens in e-participation and test the risks in the urban
decision making activity, which somehow relies on the information gathered
at the time the decision is taken, and the prediction of new socio-economical
trens for the near future. Thus citizens can play with a neutral tool in which
the what-if approach can be supported using external simulation tools or by
modifying proposed boundary conditions data.

Though the minimum data required for using the land use model is an initial
land use map, it has many options to add data for additional precision: census
data about population and jobs plus transport networks to elaborate the
19

model; zoning data; any spatial data that influences land use choices such as
weather conditions, among others. With such flexibility and interactivity, end
users can experiment with scenarios, policy options and external influences,
which can be directly visualized. This enables citizens and end-users in
general to gain insights into possible open space choices and the influence of
alternative policy measures.

Next figure (see Figure 3.3) illustrates the interaction by proximity (black lines
between citizens) of citizen agents when computing the total potential for the
most efficient use of an open space area. On the left hand side are the end
user parameters to initialize the model with urban infrastructures and services
located randomly in the area under study. Thus, the slider called schools_C
with a value 4 indicates that there are 4 schools randomly distributed, which
can be identified easily on the right hand side map with blue colour cell.

Figure 3.3: Agent interaction by proximity

20

More frequent use of the open space model will be initializing the simulation
model with GIS data, and allowing the end-users to change the weight
parameters that affect the affinity and proximity agents interaction rules.
Usually these parameters are very sensitive to each particular city and
population. The next figure (see Figure 3.4) shows citizen agent interaction
by affinity, in which agents interact with citizens who are not placed in close
cells, instead, they interact by affinity on a certain activity. On the left hand
side it is represented by sliders that allow the end-user to experiment with the
total potential for the most efficient use of an open space area considering
different weights for the sensitivity of the implemented behavioural rules.

Figure 3.4: Citizen agent interaction by affinity

In the next table (see Table 3.2), some of the most relevant citizen agent
attributes are introduced.

Table 3.2: Citizens agents attributes list

Colour
Age

Meaning
Age of the citizen: most urban policies are highly
dependant on the population age of citizens that will be
affected. Age diversity usually is a problem when trying

21

Ec

Kids
CultL

Mob

Work

Idp1

P1v
Idp2

P2v
Idp3

P3v
ta

to devise the benefits of a certain urban policy


Economical incomes rate: It takes a value between 0%
and 100%. 0% means unemployed without subsistence.
100% means a well standing economical position. This
information is highly relevant when simulating the
economic impact of urban policies.
Amount of kids bellow 18 years old: this information is
important to evaluate the social impact of urban policies.
Cultural level: A value between 1 (no studies) and 5
(PhD level). This information is useful not only to
evaluate the impact of a policy, but also to describe how
affinities can affect or can be influenced by the
neighbourhoods opinions.
Mobility: Describes the preferences of the urban
population to access places (working, leisure, shopping,
etc.). It is parameterized using 5 values: 1 Car, 2
Public urban transport (bus/subway), 3 Public
regional transport (train/buses), 4.- alternative transport
means (cycle / by food)
Work place: A discrete value indicating the amount of
zones to travel to reach its working company. In this
exampl binary information is used to indicate if the work
place is in the area of the study.
Vector information (x coordinate with respect to a
reference coordinate) which is used to evaluate the
impact of a landing change in citizens living close or far
away of the land cell.
Vector information (y coordinate with respect to a
reference coordinate) which is used to evaluate the
impact of a landing change in citizens living close or far
away of the land cell.
Vector information (not used in this example) which can
be used to evaluate the impact of a landing change in
citizens living close or far away of the land cell.
A citizen should have certain preferences towards
certain land changes fostered by some policies. This
colour is used to identify a policy for which the citizen
could feel a certain degree of acceptability.
A value between 0% and 100% to describe the rate of
acceptability of policy identified by colour Idp1.
A citizen should have certain preferences towards
certain land changes fostered by some policies. This
colour is used to identify a policy for which the citizen
could feel a certain degree of acceptability.
A value between 0% and 100% to describe de rate of
acceptability of policy identified by colour Idp2.
A citizen should have certain preferences towards
certain land changes fostered by some policies. This
colour is used to identify a policy for which the citizen
could feel a certain degree of acceptability.
A value between 0% and 100% to describe the rate of
acceptability of policy identified by colour Idp3.
The citizen attribute information must be understood as
time stamp data. Thus, some values can change
according to a simulation time basis mechanism. This
attribute represents the time stamp of the information

22

represented in the attributes.

In order to simulate the policy acceptability according to a certain time


horizon, some citizen attribute information can change on a time based
mechanism accordingly to the boundary conditions. Thus, a prediction of an
economic crisis in a certain sector (i.e. Tourism, steel companies, etc) could
affect the Ec and the Work colours.

In the next Figure 3.5 it can be seen a high level representation of the
processes to initialize an open space land use model under the causal
approach proposed.

Initialize the
Model with
GIS Data

Initialize agents
interactions
sensitivities

Initialize
Boundary
conditions

Initialize
Policy
Choices

Figure 3.5: Open space land use model initialization

Thus, the steps to be performed are:

Initialize the model with GIS data: The quality of simulation results will
always rely on the quality of data used to represent the urban area
under study. Thus, the first step will be to collect the GIS data of the
city in which not only the data related to plots and its use will be
specified, but also population information at any description level.
Some city councils can supply population information at very detailed
level in which citizens data are correlated with spatial data. Some other
council just provide aggregated population data such as rates of ages,
rates of incomes, rates of family members, etc. These aggregated data
is sometimes also correlated to spatial data providing ethnic
information (cultural areas), income information (rich and poor areas
of the city), etc. When the GIS data provided is poor (ie. aggregated
23

data), the open space simulation model can distribute the


aggregated data according to stochastic processes in which population
is distributed according to pre-programmed patterns.

Initialize agents interactions sensitivities: Citizens affinities towards the


choice of an open space can change when their preferences are
discussed with other neighbours and different arguments are
evaluated.

This

process

usually

leads

to

mutual-learning

understanding in which the final choice usually minimize the risk in the
decision making and it is more widely accepted, even when exogenous
variables change in the future years. Citizen agents are implemented
using causal rules with behaviour and an interface for sensing other
opinions and acting proving his opinion. As in a real scenario, some
citizens have a leading role in which his opinion is accepted by a
small/medium community, while there are also some citizens which are
easily influenced by the opinions of others. To simulate the flow of
information within a population, it is very important to properly tune
the weight of fostering or mitigating certain open space choices
between agents, according to the behaviours implemented the
affinities and the location of the agents with respect to the open area
under study, among others. These weights can drastically influence the
simulation results, so it is recommended to validate the weights with
real data collected through crow sourcing methods (social nets), expert
knowledge and partial model validations.

Initialize

Boundary

Conditions:

Choices

on

the

right

urban

infrastructures and services do not depend only on the present citizens


needs, but also on the expected services required according to a
certain time horizon. It is easy to see that a leisure or a commercial
centre could be an attractive option for an open space when the
income of residents is above a certain level, however if a crisis scenario
appears in a very short time horizon in which residents incomes are
drastically reduced, a green park could be a better accepted urban
resource. Furthermore, one of the main complaints of citizens against
24

urban decision makers is that some infrastructures choices were bad


planned since they are practically unused while at the same time there
are some shortages of several public services. It is important to
understand that some decisions must be taken considering the
available information and the estimation of future exogenous variables.
So, to involve citizens in the decision making activity of land use for
open spaces, an innovative aspects is to provide the expected
evolution of exogenous variables (ie. model boundary conditions) and
the possibility to introduce changes and modifications according to
other criteria (ie. future economic evolution, new environmental
friendly transport systems, etc) that could provide new insights or
reinforce other choices not supported by politician predictions.

Initialize Policy Choices: Policy choices are formulated according to


their impact on citizen needs and expectations. Thus for example, a
green park area for an open space is formulated a rule based policy in
which citizens with kids and elderly people together with people with
low incomes located in the open space proximity score positively. Score
weights and distances must be parameterized for each particular
culture and city behaviour. Regarding land space agents, the policy
choices also consider the negative potential of similar use piece of land
in the neighbourhood of the open space area. In case there are several
leisure services in the proximity of the open space under study, these
agents will score negatively on a choice for a new leisure centre in the
open space.
It is important to note that this policy formulation rule based together
with its parameterization is fully transparent to the end user, allowing
them to update the rules, the weights and even to setup new policies
that could be used as a neutral tool to justify the benefits of a new
proposal with respect to the ones formulated by governmental bodies.

25

In the next Figure 3.6 it can be seen a high level representation of the
simulation process on an open space land use model under the causal
approach proposed.

Evaluate
Agents
affinities

Update affinities
due to proximity
interactions
Read
Boundary
conditions

Update affinities
due to other
interactions

End?

Update clock
interval

Figure 3.6: Open space land use simulation algorithm

Evaluate Agents Affinities: Each citizen agent will check the rules
defined in each policy for the potential of the different choices
considering the particular attributes of the agent, its distance to the
open space and its interaction with land space agents. As a result of
this first process, each agent will have a list of weighted ranked
choices for the open space. The original weight and priorities would
change in two different ways:
o According to its interaction with other citizens reinforcing or
discarding some of the original choices
o Agent parameters changes: Through changes in the boundary
conditions in which the economical state could easily change in
future years.

Update Affinities due to Proximity Interactions: In this process each


agent checks its affinities with a subset randomly chosen other agents
who are located in the neighbourhood. As a result of the interaction,
some agents will reinforce their original choices while some other
agents will change the original priorities. Rules defining agent affinity
changes are transparent and implemented under a causal formalism
26

which considers the social behaviour of the agents that interact


together with the score of their original choices.

Update Affinities due to other Interactions: In this process each agent


checks its affinities with a subset randomly chosen of other agents who
share some activities (kids in the same school, friends in social nets,
etc.). As a result of the interaction, some agents will reinforce their
original choices while some others agents will change the original
priorities. Rules defining agent affinity changes are transparent and
implemented under a causal formalism which considers the social
behaviour of the agents that interact together with the score of their
original choices.

Update Boundary Conditions: Once each agent has scored the choices
for the open space and it has shared his score with other agents
(updating in some cases the original priorities), the clock is advanced
one time unit (usually one year), and the exogenous variables are
checked to update agents attributes according mainly to economic
evolutions (changes in the income values), transport and health care
needs. Population changes that can affect the density of inhabitants in
the area under study are also considered. According to the expected
changes, each agent re-evaluates once again their choices considering
previous opinions and its inertia.

3.1.2 Sustainable tourism


Tourism has become a primary industry for many geographical areas, which
has lead to a remarkable growth in tourism activities. Growth has been
fostered by some players which regarded the natural attractions of the region
as an unlimited resource to be exploited in order to maximize different kinds
of returns. However, the lack of sustainability studies in the tourism sector in
which the risks and the returns could be properly balanced has raised several
27

citizen voices which see the continued growth of visitor numbers and tourism
related infrastructure as prejudicing the core attractions of the region and the
lifestyle of its residents.

At strategic level, the success of the tourism economic activity has been
always seen as strongly dependent on the decisions taken by the actors in the
field. For example, tourism managers use to take decisions on segmentation
and market positioning, product design, pricing, retail strategy and
advertising. At operational level, problems such as dramatic declines in visitor
numbers have been managed by increasing marketing expenditure or by
changing the image or brand of the destination. It is a widespread belief
among people in the tourism industry that marketing holds the key to regional
tourism success.

Given the difficulty of predicting the consequences of decisions regarding a


system which involves many variables interrelated in a non-linear manner, the
tourism sector should be seen as a complex system, in which a large range of
activities and factors should be managed simultaneously for regional tourism
to be successful and sustainable in the long term.

Thus, the fact that tourism industry cannot continue growing without some
form of economic or environmental backlash together with the influence of
external factors which create sudden and often severe fluctuations in tourism
activity has lead operators in tourism management and public policy makers
to awake their interest in effective tools for exploring the consequences of
their decisions in the Tourism sector to reach a sustainable tourism
development in which the risks and the returns could be properly balanced.

Several simulation models has been developed based on three different


approaches: the tourism system model (Mill and Morrison, 1992), the
destination life-cycle model Butler (1980), and the supply and demand
balance model (Gunn, 1994). Unfortunately, most of present developed
28

models dont consider the interdependencies between the economic, social,


environmental and policy factors at a spatial level. Considering for example
the Gunn model, the supply side is represented by attractions, transportation,
information, promotion and services, while the demand is represented by
commercial enterprises, non-profit organizations and governments. The
influence between the capacity and the demand depends mainly on
organization, leadership, finance, labour, entrepreneur-ship, community,
competition, government policies, natural resources, and cultural resources.
As it can be noted, these types of models are mainly oriented to strategic
decision making in which public administrators can take some have to
implement policies regarding the accessibility of the destination and of the
single attractions, the organization of events or the economic incentive of
specific market segments, however, citizens ideas, their opinion, and the
effects of tourism investments in their practical daily life are practically
neglected.

New simulation models are required to explore how tourism in a region can
grow in such a manner that the limit to the growth of tourism is not the
adverse effects of the growth itself, but something of the regions choosing.
Understanding the forces that shape the future of tourism in a holistic manner
is essential for sustainably managing tourism development.

The aim of the FUPOL model will be to develop an innovative framework for
evaluating

the

benefits

and

impacts

in

the

social,

economic

and

environmental sectors of nature-based tourism and the policy options for


managing tourism activity and development involving citizens in the decision
making activity.

Multi Agent System (MAS) Approach

In FUPOL we propose to develop a MAS model for evaluating the benefits and
impacts of a range of policy and management activities for guiding tourism
29

development, and for making the causal relationships explicit in a manner


that is conducive to improving the knowledge of citizens and other
stakeholders. An innovative aspect of the MAS model will be the analysis how
tourists (agents) can influence the decisions of other agents.

The MAS model will be developed considering the following characteristics:

Spatially-situated agents: It will represent the different potential


tourists behaviours (kids, elderly, families, young travellers, etc)
considering for each one the different procedures at specific
destinations considering the services and infrastructures available
(attractions, transportation, information, promotion and services).

Heterogeneous agents: The influence, risk and benefits of the different


stakeholders play an important role in the tourist behaviour (ie.
satisfaction). Some pre-identified agents would be developed in:
o Tourism operator: Agent decision making will be formulated
considering aspects such as:


What are the implications of a significant down-turn in


the numbers of international visitors to the region?

How the imposition of a limit on the number visitors to


specific locations will impact on their economic viability

How commercial fishing in or near the reef and ongoing


water

pollution

can

impact on

the

diversity

and

abundance of fish and coral and hence the reefs


attractiveness for visitors.

o Resident community: Agent decision making will be formulated


considering aspects such as: the effect on the employment
opportunities and security, their lifestyle and the cost of living in
the region.
o Local government: Agent decision making will be formulated
considering aspects such as: the relationship between tertiary
sewage treatment and oceans water quality and the implications
30

of land-use zoning and the number of building approvals on


occupancy rates and employment.

Agents constitute a social network: The system will be built in such a


way that a tourist who is satisfied with his tourist destination is more
likely to return to that destination than one who obtained lower utility.
Moreover, in the model as in the real world, a satisfied tourist can
influence other individuals with similar characteristics to choose the
same destination, whereas an unsatisfied tourist can influence other
potential tourists to avoid that destination.

In order to evaluate how economic, social, environmental and land-use


factors affects tourism development and/or be affected by tourism in the
region, the boundary conditions should describe different aspects such as:
total visitor spending, occupancy rates and expected employment. Definition
of these boundary conditions would be grouped in two different sectors:

Market: Ends users will parametrize the internal and external factors
affecting purchasers of tourism products select a destination. The
different marketing actions will be represented considering the impact
predicted in the different tourist segments to which are addressed,
including market products and services.

Travel:

It

will

describe

the

passenger

flows

and

forms

of

transportation.

The results obtained will feed a FCM with the main relationships modelled at
macro level, in which it would be possible to analyze aspects such as:
environmental implications for land and water resources and social impacts on
the local community.

31

3.1.3 Urban segregation and inclusion


To realize the potential role of cities in fostering development, it is essential to
remove the barriers that inhibit the formation of inclusive cities, that is, cities
capable of promoting growth with equity (UN-Habitat, 2001a). Urban
segregation, understood as a distance or isolation among different social
groups in an urban environment, represents a significant barrier to achieving
social inclusion in cities because it has reinforced social exclusion in the cities
of the developing world (UN-Habitat, 2001b).
Different types of urban segregation can be considered, including income and
racial or ethnical segregation, depending on the contextual mechanisms
within a city. MASUS, a multi-agent simulator for urban segregation, has
implemented a quite acceptable income segregation model to evaluate the
separation among the residential locations of different income groups. Income
segregation negatively impacts urban populations by contributing to the social
exclusion of disadvantaged groups. Areas of poverty concentration are often
associated with poor quality of built and natural environments, higher
exposure to violence and
diseases, and other physical issues that impose difficulties on the daily lives of
poor families. In addition, a lack of positive relations among different social
groups can increase prejudice and territorial stigmatization and can keep
disadvantaged people from societal participation, thus reducing their
opportunities for jobs and skill improvement.

Approaches to study the behavior of social groups while selecting their


residential location focus on at least four different yet interdependent
mechanisms:

Personal preferences: This approach, focuses on personal preferences,


foster segregation since people prefer to have neighbours similar to
them (Schelling, 1971). This is common among affluent families, who
often seek high status or who want to protect themselves from
poverty-related problems.
32

Labour market: This approach proposes that the labor market and its
socio-economic impacts, such as social exclusion and inequality, are
responsible for segregation and the precarious living conditions of poor
families (Gerometta, Hausermann, & Longo, 2005).

Land and real estate markets: The this approach concentrates on land
and real estate markets, and it stresses how developers and their
agents stimulate competition for housing, which reinforces the selfsegregation of affluent groups and excludes poor families.

State policies and investments: This approach stresses how the state
permits segregation through its lack of action and promotes it through
the unequal distribution of capital improvements, massive public
housing projects, or regulatory devices such as exclusionary zoning.

To understand how the aforementioned mechanisms influence segregation


dynamics is considered a challenging research area because segregation
displays many of the hallmarks of complexity, including emergence and
nonlinearity. Segregation is a macro-scale phenomenon, but it emerges from
the residential choices of many individuals at the micro-level. These choices
are driven by contextual mechanisms that not only influence the emergence
of segregation patterns but are also influenced by them. These positive
feedbacks introduce nonlinearity into the system. As a result, small
differences in context or local behaviour are able to produce unexpected and
counterintuitive outcomes that are not equivalent to the simple sum of the
constituent parts. The complex nature of segregation imposes difficulties on
traditional modeling approaches, such as statistical modeling or classical
optimization (Batty, 2007).

Multi Agent System (MAS) Approach

Agent-based modeling (ABM) provides the right tools to address the


shortcomings of traditional modelling techniques by introducing individual
decision-making units, called agents, which interact with each other and their
33

environment. ABM offers a natural presentation of real-world processes that


underlie complex social dynamics such as urban segregation and will be used
in FUPOL as the modelling approach for representing complex segregation
dynamics.

The first segregation ABM model reported in the literature that shows the
ABMs ability to provide new insights for understanding complex phenomena
(Schelling, 1971). This first ABM model inspired many other researchers, who
have developed variations of the Schelling model by using alternative utility
functions to include the following aspects: recognizing preferences for
housing and neighborhood quality (Fossett & Senft, 2004); adopting different
notions of neighborhoods (Fossett & Waren, 2005; Laurie & Jaggi, 2003;
OSullivan, Macgill, & Yu, 2003); testing different multigroup situations (Clark
& Fosset, 2008); adding game theory principles (Zhang, 2004); and using
vector-based representations (Crooks, 2008).

Despite the existence of many agent based models for segregation, very few
examples of models that rely on empirical data and methods can be found. In
FUPOL it is intended to develop a Multi Agent Simulation model to provide a
virtual laboratory for exploring the impact of different mechanisms and
policies on the emergence of segregation patterns and its dynamics, in which
agents will be described considering income, class, race, migratory origin, and
ethnicity.

The conceptual simulation framework proposed to be developed in FUPOL will


consist of three main components: urban population, urban landscape, and
experimental factors. Next Figure 3.7 presents these components and their
interrelations.

34

FUZZY COGNITIVE MAPS


Macro level representation

URBAN POPULATION
AGENTS

URBAN LANDSCAPE

Environment attributes

Atributes
Decision-making

Landscape Dynamics

End User
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS
Socio-Demographic
Aspects

Household
Preferences

Urban Policies

Figure 3.7: Urban segregation and inclusion: conceptual simulation framework

The urban population represents the targeted urban area under study, which
depicts micro and macro-level processes of the system. At the micro-level,
agents represent the residents of the city, which have their specific state and
decision-making sub-model. The urban population will be characterized by
spatial and nonspatial attributes. The spatial characteristics correspond to the
residential location of agents belonging to different social groups, that is, the
segregation pattern of the city. The non-spatial characteristics will correspond
to the entire aggregation of agent attributes, such as the income and
education levels of the population as a whole. At the macro-level of the
system, the urban population emerges from the activities of agents over
space and time and will be formalized in FCM.

The urban landscape will describe the environment where agents are placed
and where they act. This environment provides a spatially explicit context for
the agents decisions about whether to move or remain in place. The urban
landscape will be represented as a grid of patches or cells with their own
state and transitional dynamics. The cell state will be described by a list of
spatial variables that are relevant for the agents behavior, such as land use
35

type, land value and infrastructure. The main dynamics of the urban
landscape system will be driven by the agents interaction considering: urban
sprawl, dwelling offers, infrastructure quality, and land value.

The boundary conditions will represent exogenous parameters and input data
that can be changed to test the impact of urban policies toward segregation.
The segregation pattern of the city emerges from the individual decisions of
numerous agents. According to its decision making sub-model, an agent may
decide to act (i.e., move to another location). The agents decision will
depend on its state, which is comprised of the agents attributes, and its
perceptions about different residential locations. These perceptions will take
into consideration the environmental characteristics (urban landscape) and
the population composition of neighborhoods population (urban population)
of potential locations.

3.1.4 Industrialization of edgeland


Despite there is no formal definition of edgeland, it is well accepted that there
is a kind of landscape quite different from either urban and rural, which is
often vast in area, it is characterised by rubbish tips and warehouses,
superstores

and

derelict

industrial

plant,

office

parks

and

gypsy

encampments, golf courses, allotments and fragmented, frequently scruffy,


farmland. All these heterogeneous elements usually are arranged in an unruly
and often apparently chaotic fashion, however nowadays, these zones have
expanded vastly in area, complexity and singularity. Huge numbers of people
now spend much of their time living, working or moving within or through it.
The characteristic appearance of this interfacial landscape is matched by the
characteristic forms of land use it reflects. These uses gravitate to the
interface for a combination of reasons. Sometimes the cause is obvious:
motorcycle training centres, for example, are noisy yet require easy access to
centres of population. Driveto retail units would be inside towns if retailers
could find there the floorspace, the parking area and the consequent relaxed
36

planning regime they require. As these retail parks emerge outside towns the
road network adjusts to provide access to them, and a chicken-and-egg
situation arises whereby interface sites become more attractive to car users
and therefore to retail developers. As shopping is coming to be seen more
and more as a leisure activity than a chore, superstores are coming to be
surrounded by other types of leisure development, such as restaurants and
nightclubs. Business parks, distribution depots and housing estates also
spring up in the interface, often around the bypasses and motorway
interchanges that it provides.
The characteristic activities of the edgelands are also arranged in a distinctive
way. Unlike a garden city, say, or a Victorian suburb, interfacial areas are not
designed from scratch. They assemble themselves in response to whatever
needs are thrust upon them, and in whatever way they can. This
characteristic makes the interface intrinsically casual and unofficial. It is easy
to recognize that even stores appear dumped individually, often surrounded
by their own extensive car parks, rather than linked together as in a high
street.
There is a lack of institutions capable of addressing the links between urban
and edgeland activities. This is reinforced by the convergence of sectoral and
overlapping institutions with different remits. Institutions of local government
tend to be either urban or rural in their focus, metropolitan governments few in any case - rarely include rural jurisdictions, special purpose authorities
bridging urban and rural areas are not created, and district and regional
governments do not adequately link urban and rural concerns.
Public authorities tend to have a passive attitude towards these interfacial
areas. Sometimes these areas are so little acknowledged that they have not
even been given distinctive names. Planning authorities pay much less
attention to the detailed planning of these areas than they do to that of either
town or country. Instead, they continue to allow the interface to be shaped
largely by the planning applications that happen to come in, rather than by
proactive planning with the use of instruments such as compulsory purchase
and town plans to assert a public realm. Despite this lack of interest in
37

properly

planning

the

urbanrural

interface,

much

of

our

current

environmental change, and in particular the development of large-scale retail,


business and industrial premises, is taking place in these edgeland zones. In
the United States there is growing awareness of the development of what has
been termed edge city and the effect this is having on the geography and
economic and social profile of entire regions. In Britain for example, planning
still focuses on the problems of towns and the challenge of the countryside. It
is important to develop models to attend to the activity in the interface to
influence the effects of it on other parts of the environment, such as town
centres.
Characteristically interfacial landscape does not occur today around every
settlement.There is plenty of altogether rural land rubbing shoulders with
settlements, often quite large ones. It is equally true that land with the
distinguishing edgeland features is not found exclusively on the present-day
border between town and country. Although yesterdays interfacial zones are
often swallowed up by subsequent building, sometimes they survive as
edgeland within built-up areas. Nonetheless, the present ruralurban
interface plays an important role not only in the expanding landscape but also
in the potential impact of down town areas in the neighbor cities.
Regarding the role of the main agents involved in the interface area,
developers like interfacial land because it is usually a green field, and
therefore free of existing buildings or noxious waste, and yet it is close to
urban areas. Farmers are usually only too pleased to sell. Usually farmers that
wish to carry on farming, it is usually far more sensible to sell a farm in the
interface and use the millions of pounds they raise to buy something
somewhere else. The task of the developer is made easier by the fact that
councils impose fewer conditions in terms of design of buildings and so on
than they do in other environments.
Due to a lack of simulation models to analyze the edgeland impact on
downtown commerce, and the fact that edgelands evolve mainly due to
causal facts, in FUPOL it is proposed to develop a causal model in which the
main characteristics of a city to attract a sustainable industries to its edgeland
38

and analyze the impact in different key performance areas on the city
behaviour will be developed.
The model to be developed should stress the importance of the urbanedgeland interaction in that it should rely heavily on linkages between citizens
education profiles, city services and infrastructures. Thus the model should
consider:

The size rank of the cities is determinant in its effects on successful


edgeland industrial development
The edgeland industrial development would necessarily benefit the
poor and underprivileged

Multi Agent EdgeLand Simulation model


Depending on ones perspective, a city like Barnsley can be viewed as a
progressive and environmentally focused urban area, a manufacturing centre,
a transit hub, and a place to live, to grow, to work and to raise a family. On
the other hand, it can be viewed as a poor investment, a dirty city suffering
from a decline in manufacturing, and a city which maintains the status quo,
lacking innovation. While elements of these perceptions hold some truth, in
reality a city is a complex entity which cannot be analyzed using
generalizations or stereotypes.
A simulation model of the edgeland of a city could contribute to understand
the challenges that a city faces in terms of its sustainable development, its
ability to attract business and its ability to build upon a strong downtown
commercial area. The research in this area is important because edgeland can
be seen as a critical point in its progress on revitalizing the economy and
ecosystem of different cities. Understanding the challenges will help city staff,
councilors and citizens make decisions and adopt strategies that will
encourage positive growth, financial success and a sustainable future.
The intent of a multi agent edgeland simulation model in FUPOL is to discuss
issues of economic, social and environmental sustainability and the challenges
and opportunities in attracting sustainable companies to the edgeland of a
city. The model will support to explore the barriers and challenges to bottom
39

line initiatives in the city including the challenges to attracting sustainable


business. As a result a Fuzzy Cognitive Map will be properly parametrized with
the support for and against sustainable initiatives. The MAS approach will
include a framework for city staff to follow in order to make local business
leaders and politicians aware of the positive benefits of attracting sustainable
business and development in the edgeland.
To determine the worth of a business, company or group in terms of
economic, environmental, social or community indicators for the purpose of
having that group operate in the edgeland of a city, a deep analysis to specify
the boundary conditions must be performed. This analysis should consider a
committee to research companies that subscribe the three necessary
elements of sustainable development: economic performance, environmental
protection and positive social outcomes.
The causal simulation model will implement indicators that will measure the
economic, environmental, social and ethical impacts of evaluated companies
on the community. A micro model approach with spatial information of the
city characteristics together with the connectivity of the edgeland will be
developed to understand the impact of the required infrastructure, people,
policies and incentives.
The environmental planning and management of the edgeland -city interface
cannot simply be based on the extrapolation of planning approaches and tools
applied in rural and urban areas. Instead, it needs to be based on the
construction of an approach that responds to the specific environment, social,
economic and institutional aspects of the edgeland interface. Different agents
will be designed and implemented to analyze the emergence dynamics that
could appear between the edgeland and the city behavior considering the
characteristics of the industry or company that could be established in the
edgeland area.
The edgeland-city links presents particular attributes that will be implemented
in the agents, constituting a system affected by similar processes to those
which take place in the expansion of agrarian frontiers, such as:
40

Increasing pressure over the biophysical support reflected, for


example, in the replacement of natural or semi-natural soil and
vegetation with artificial impermeable surfaces, and the routing of
rainwater along drains and sewers altering natural hydrological
networks;
Urban expansion resulting in new economic opportunities, such as
land speculation, but often at the expense of high environmental
costs, due to the lessening or cancellation of essential ecological
functions such as the recycling of nutrients, replenishment of
aquifers, absorption of pollutants, etc.;
Emergence of informal activities
New conflicts emerging among numerous actors who exert pressure
over the access of others to the use and appropriation of
environmental resources
Land use changes in the edgelands are often driven by decisions
taken outside the system, such as the construction of motorways or
dams.
Land values and ownership are subject to rapid changes which
often result in more landless people and clashes between
indigenous land management systems and the market, institutional
and legal confusion over land management;
Traditional productive activities are wiped out, affecting the
livelihoods of the poorest. For example, open-field horticulture
tends to disappear due to the decrease of soil quality due to
sediments produced by cement plants and power stations;
Household livelihood strategies of low-income groups tend to be
characterised by a mix of natural and non-natural resource based
activities and by relationships of mutual exchange and support
between rural and urban communities

The boundary conditions will consider the hinterland of the edgeland,


describing mainly those challenges that could affect the edgeland-City link,
such as:

Unforeseen challenges that could deal with impediments that are


rooted in past civic decisions, physical aspects of the hinterland and
the state of world markets. These challenges are currently beyond the
immediate control of the citys bureaucratic and political leaders.
External challenges that include perceptions of the hinterland, such as
reputation, economic factors, social issues and workforce issues. These
41

limitations could be alleviated by enacting the proper policies and


implementing relevant solutions detailed further below.
As a result of the MAS model implementedin FUPOL, it will be possible to
implement a Macro-Level model in FCM to analyze the influence factors views
in the edgeland-urban interface problematic, providing the following features
that could be considered as a set of ad-hoc hypothesis:

Interests that the urban elite has in developing new edgeland areas
and more generally, the local configuration of social classes and power
relationships
Identification of possible ways of exploitation of population by the city,
that are likely to be more acute or evident in the edgeland
Identification of service activities and industrial activities taking place in
the edgeland, and the specific policies that constitute their framework
Analysis of the spatial link between edgeland and hinterland activities,
identifying conflicts, contradictions, overlaps, etc.
Identification of the role of planning authorities and policy makers in
defining the edgeland (or the policy framework that affects it), seeking
to find possible external influences rather than locally driven ones.

3.1.5 Informal settlements


The definition of informal settlements (lS) varies widely from one country to
another and depends on different parameters. Informal settlements are also
known by different names such as ghettos, shantytowns, slums, favelas or
squatter settlements. In FUPOL, an informal settlement is to be understood
as an urban residential area occupied by the poorer section of urban
dwellers, in breach of urban planning regulations and where living
conditions, services and infrastructures are below the legal and official
standard. For the purpose of the development of a causal model for eparticipation, the term 'informal settlement' is most suitable because it
encapsulates all aspects of the topic from the legal, administrative, socioeconomic and physical perspectives.

42

The proliferation of informal settlements (IS) constitutes one of the most


complex and pressing challenges facing developing countries. It is well
accepted that IS represents a new urbanization challenge for cities in Less
Developed Countries (LDCs). It should be noted that 30-60% of urban
settlements in LDCs are informal and up to 80% of new settlements are
created outside the official guidelines. Such guidelines, however, are often
themselves ill equipped to address such rapid changes to the urban
landscape. Furthermore, research shows that living conditions in IS are
causing a direct and daily threat to the well being of the entire community
and thus creating cities defined by poverty and often violence.

It is clear that IS requiring greater recognition and an improved decision


making process. There is, however, a gap in the literature on understanding
the future expansion and management of IS. In particular, the policies and
tools available to predict their spatial extension and thus assist with
important planning responses are limited. These limitations raise two
important questions:

Where will the ongoing influx of people in LDC cities be settled?

What are the tools that can assist urban decision makers to respond
adequately to the influx of people and the consequences their
presence has on the landscape and urban form?

Despite the drastic consequences of IS in the demand of transportation and


services, little has been done about developing a comprehensive simulation
model of future distribution and expansion of IS. Although some studies
have looked at ways in which urban dynamics can be simulated and
modelled by means of modern techniques, few studies investigating and
reflecting the urban dynamics in the unplanned context of LDC have been
reported. This represents a serious gap in both the literature and the
application of urban planning in understanding and handling the unplanned
developments and the living space of the majority of city dwellers in LDC.
43

By considering that the main instigator of informal settlements in urban


spaces are local populations rather than the public sector or development
agencies, it is crucial to foster e-participation for a mutual learning process
in which investments could be properly prioritized to mitigate these factors
that contribute the rapid and uncontrolled proliferation of an IS and avoid
the apathy in public sector urban management practices.

Thus, in FUPOL a causal model capable of simulating and predicting the


future expansion and distribution will be developed as a neutral and
transparent tool to understand the complex unplanned features, the social
driving forces, paying special attention to the physical and socio-cultural
factors that generates IS patterns in order to explore scenarios in which new
urban policies could deal with much acceptable distributions. A causal
modelling approach will contribute to the understanding of how IS emerge
and grow, and therefore provide more information for the better anticipation
of servicing, economic opportunities and infrastructure responses before the
emergence of IS. The application of the simulation platform for eparticipation could have important social justice outcomes by enhancing the
management of complex urban forms through anticipation of unplanned
areas and their impact upon the organization of urban spaces. It is expected
that such approach would increase opportunities to improve the living
conditions of future IS dwellers. lt is worth mentioning that cities often
exhibit peculiar local features in respect to IS characteristics, such as their
size and the conditions pertaining to their emergence and growth. These
aspects will be properly considered in the causal in order to be sufficiently
flexible to readily accommodate adjustments lo local contexts.

In the next Figure 3.8, it is represented the main review activities that
should be performed when developing a causal simulation model for IS

44

Location
Factors

Infrastructure
deficiencies

Organization
Rules

Urban
Commodities

Figure 3.8: Informal settlement causal model design

Location Factors: Informal Settlements can be characterised by their


site and situation. Usually, they are situated in locations that are
normally considered unsuitable for housing and urban development
such as riverbanks, sleep slopes, dumping grounds, abandoned or
unused land, along rail networks, near industrial areas, market
places, wetlands and in unattractive areas such as cemeteries and
close lo waste disposal sites.
The causal model should be feed with GIS information to determine
those ecologically unsuitable areas (landslides, pollution and health
hazards) with highest risk to flourish as IS.

Infrastructure Deficiencies: The causal formulation of socio-economic


conditions in the IS should provide the different relationships at
quantitative and qualitative level to predict the evolution of different
inadequate services such as: water supply, sewage and drainage,
sanitation, solid and liquid waste disposal, electricity, roads, health
centres, and schools. It is expected that the MAS simulation would
provide a better understanding of the actors in this informal
environment by computing the socio-economic profile of informal
dwellers, which somehow have similar socio-cultural backgrounds.

IS Organization Rules: IS represent a series of unorganized individual


properties

resulting

from

self-help

strategies

with

no

public

assistance. The IS dweller is more likely to own a house that has


been built with the assistance of informal finance.
Despite the variety of types and quality of construction, most IS
houses are built using local or savaged materials. It is well accepted
45

that popular market places are the breeding ground par excellence
for the informal economic sector, where knowledge, skills and
experience are not pre-requisites to access to the job markets. This
kind of information should be supported by the MAS model to emerge
the different correlations between the informal economic sectors,
employment, market places and IS, since these factors will play an
important role in the emergence, proliferation and consolidation of IS,
and will provide the IS growth.

Urban Commodities: The emergence and growth of IS obeys also to a


disequilibrium

factor

between

demand

and

supply

of

urban

commodities (land, services and housing infrastructure), particularly


in relation to the sustainability and persistence of IS. Spatially,
informal settlements use to grow at least twice as fast as the urban
growth rate as there is simply not enough infrastructures to cope with
the demand for housing and services. The causal model should also
support the evaluation of efforts deployed to improve slums, and its
correlation with new IS mushrooming in other parts of the city as
people creates their own housing. The MAS simulation approach will
provide the basis to replicate the spatial and temporal sustainability of
IS which is nourished by "the nature of governmental interventions or
non-interventions and the actions and self-organization of those
involved in the illegal practices".

3.2 Validation of Policy Domain Requirements


The FUPOL policy domains requirements were determined and discussed in
deliverable D2.1 and D2.2, even more, discussions and determinations
continue in D7.2. However the simulation software selection and further
designing of the FUPOL simulator ask for the answers on some specific
questions which are not involved in qustionnaires of deliverables mentioned
above. Therefore assessment of requirements and evaluation of beneficiarys
expectations to avoid of wrong decisions in simulation software selection is
46

done in current chapter. Such an additional validation of users expectations is


worthvile to reduce the risk of wrong selection of simulation tools with limited
possibilities. The validation of domain requirements set is done using FUPOL
Simulator assessment questionnaire (see Annex 5).

Assessment of requirements for FUPOL policy simulator is based on three


filled out questionnaires received from Zagreb, Yantai, and Barnsley as of 12
June, 2012.

3.2.1 Validation of main domains


There is general consensus that the land-use should be the main theme of
the policy simulator. In addition the emphasis can be placed on related
themes, such as environmental, transportation, urban growth and urban
renewal. Wish list of Yantai was more comprehensive than others, whereas
Zagrebs and Barnsleys more selective. Zagreb expressed more interest in
territorial aspects of land-use. Barnsley, on the other hand, selected more
economy-based simulation approaches thet focus on employment, industrial
development also taking into consideration skill levels within the community.
For Barnsley the skills of the workforce and role of supply chains were
important themes of simulation in addition to those offered in the
questionnaire.

3.2.2 Impact assessment


The users of the simulator need to learn about environmental, local and
regional impacts (for example, property values). In addition, learning about
the impact on transportation, accessibility and demographic and social
processes is also important. Zagreb is interested in the impact on costs of eservices and revenues in the area (e.g. local taxes). Barnsley specifically
suggests modelling of alternate outcomes of industrial uses for all the land
allocated for economic development.
47

Most stakeholders agree that they need to know whether specific changes of
land use will make the community more competitive in a commercial sense
and more attractive to business, and if the project will have negative effect on
other communities in the area. Zagreb is specifically interested in housing and
property values. When modelling the processes of transportation, it is
important to show if people will be able to get to jobs, go shopping, and
access services, such as doctors. Traffic congestions are also of interest
within the context of transportation. All stakeholders wish to know if the
project affects the amount of available green space, flood plains, and natural
habitat. Yantai and Barnsley are also interested in the projects impact on
energy consumption, water and air quality.
Stakeholders were less coherent regarding the social impact demonstrations.
Most, however, expressed interest in overall changes in community character
and the impact on specific community attributes such as historic and cultural
sites). Barnsley was specifically interested in demonstrating the effects of
changing skill and education levels.
3.2.3 Main factors to be considered
Stakeholders had comprehensive view about specific factors of simulation. For
all, however, global policy factors were not considered especially relevant in
the context of FUPOL Simulator. Yantai expressed interest in most factors
that were offered by the questionnaire (see Annex 5). Barnsley and Zagreb
were more selective. Common factors selected by all stakeholders were water
pollution,

changes

in

greenhouse

gasses,

changes

in

local

zoning,

transportation infrastructure developments, changes in infrastructure costs,


and local fiscal policies. Among other factors, Barnsley also added the
capacity of sewers.
3.2.4 Evaluation of simulation properties
Stakeholders agreed that prediction time of simulation should be specified,
but it should optimally be 20 years. Possible increments of simulation could be
1 and 5 years. All agreed that the spatial extent should be scalable and
48

customized for user needs. According to Barnsley, the spatial extent should
involve local and regional levels and cities with a population of 200,000 and
more. All agreed that the model should strive for high subzonal resolutions.
For Barnsley one of the key tasks of simulator could be the re-allocation of
the land previously either unallocated known as open (white) land, or land
allocated to agriculture etc. to a new allocation of industry or offices. Details
of each site do not necessarily have to be taken into account- e.g. number of
parking spaces- as these are set drawn in rules elsewhere. Obviously,
resolution will depend on the use of existing data, therefore is important to
keep it user defined. Stakeholders would like to see all major urban and nonurban land use categories included in simulation. Additional offered categories
include flood plains, contaminated land, brown fields, and reuse of industrial
land, as opposed to green field sites of newly identified land. In the context of
economic factors, which are relevant for Barnsley, recreation zones are seen
in the context of making employment zones more attractive to workers.
Housing in developed spaces should be represented by type, units and floor
spaces.
Stakeholder needs were different regarding to representation of transport
system. Yantai favoured representation of individual vehicle passengers and
goods transport, whereas Barnsley emphasized that cycling and walk to work
should be represented. Zagreb on the other hand emphasized public
transport and goods transport.

It is not clear how people will be represented in the simulation. Yantai and
Barnsley liked to see people represented. Yantai is more interested in
representing people as travellers in transport model, whereas Barnsley sees
people more as potential workers. This obviously depends on specific
scenarios that will be simulated. For Zagreb the inclusion of people in the
model is not considered critical. Among Yantai and Barnsley there was a
consensus about common peoples life events that should be included in
simulation, such as ageing, disability, single lifestyles, cohabitation, marriage,
divorce, education attainment, student employment, labour participation,
49

occupation type, income, residential location, workplace location, school


location, and vehicle ownership.
There is less agreement regarding the representation of households. Yet,
both Yantai and Barnsley were interested in representing choice in favour of
household location in particular area and household relocation. For Barnsley
representation of the private sector, such as business establishments by type
in addition, the numbers of jobs are important. Developer decision should be
modelled for both residential and non-residential developments with a focus
on industrial developments in Barnsleys case. Three most important decision
making processes are basic land use decisions and analysis, floor space
allocation and job market.
3.2.5 Expectations for the simulator interface
Stakeholders agree that almost all mentioned interface elements are
important (see Annex 5). All agree that for simulator to work visual
representation, expandability, transferability, fast accessibility via the Internet
and open source solutions are among top criteria. Stakeholders do not
prioritize particular user groups. However the simulator will be likely used by
politicians, policy makers, nontechnical land use planners and managers, and
specialists. All agreed that simulation should be easy to use by persons with
general computer skills. All agreed that parameters of the model should be
recalibrated using options embedded in the software for the model. Software
should provide links to different types of software, such as spreadsheets and
data bases, statistical and GIS software. The model should be linked with
other models easily. Migration between operating systems should be made
easy. Data input for the simulator should be pre processed inputs, data bases
and GIS data sources. Model should support broad range of outputs. Most
important forms of support were simulator software documentation, hands-on
training course of model users, short instructional videos and user guide of
how to load and run the model.

50

3.2.6 Final reflections


According to Barnsley, the demonstration will not be simply to help illuminate
the potential of FUPOL Simulator, but be a real life exercise where the results
of the exercise are implemented. Clearly, stakeholders will also use their
normal planning/consultation processes. But it is important to demonstrate
how the FUPOL Simulator improved the process. Therefore deployment of the
simulation should be made easier, particularly as the strategy is to deploy the
quick-wins, and then add the more complex materials to existing customers.
Though all three stakeholders agree on relevance of simulation different
simulation factors, there is less agreement regarding the representation of
people and households. It is unlikely that simulator will be able to address all
the elements mentioned by all the stakeholders, therefore some choices will
have to be made. Formulation of specific needs of stakeholders could alleviate
the process of finalisation of requirements and specification design already
preliminary done in WP2 and WP7 and validated in current chapter.

Summary of all preferences of stakeholders is provided in the Annex 6.

4 Technical

Requirements

for

the

Simulation

Software Platform
4.1 The Preliminary Architecture of FUPOL Simulator
Software
The architecture of the FUPOL Simulator is responsible for implementing the
simulation of policy models elaborated in WP3.

It might be necessary to use different simulation technologies and mostly


non-compatible set of simulation tools. (Gilbert, 2005). Moreover most of the
platforms cannot be used for policy decision makers due to complexity, heavy
architecture and special knowledge of programming and mathematics.
51

The simulation under the FUPOL framework will be ensured at two levels:
micro and macro simulation levels. In the micro level the agent-based
simulation (ABM) operations related to versatile and small basic components
interaction and forecasting of the interaction results will be carried out. The
base of micro level functioning is mostly LUCC operations and GIS support.
Although DEVS could be used for forecasting of continuing events it cannot be
recommended, therefore the FUPOL Simulator could be designed as multilevel
system. At the macro level (if it is necessary) the system dynamics (SD)
simulation will be realised. Moreover, the micro level would be the data
source for the macro simulation model.
The FUPOL Simulator software consists of following functional parts (see
Figure 4.1):

Simulation Initialization and Control;


Multilevel and Distributed Simulation Models Management.

Simulation Initialization and Control

Restrictions and limitations (red lines, red polygons) interaction with


GIS and FUPOL GIS DB;
Initial Simulation Window Marking, Zooming and Selection (rectangle)
interaction with GIS and FUPOL GIS DB;
Data Input (CORINE, INSPIRE, EUROSTAT, User Data) interaction
with FUPOL GIS DB;
Data Output (CORINE, INSPIRE, User Data) interaction with FUPOL
GIS;
Data Visualisation (map, tables, graphs, set of pictures, movie)
interaction with FUPOL GIS DB and GIS;
Launching (Start, Stop, Back) interaction with simulation platform;
Timing (time periods) interaction with simulation platform;
Interaction with FUPOL Software Core platform.

Multilevel and Distributed Simulation Models Management

Simulation Domain Selection:


Simulation Platform selection interaction with ABM or SD
platforms;

52

Simulation Algorithm Calibration (Probability, Distance or


Surrounding, Switching on-off) interaction with simulation
platform;
Drivers and Categories (selection, creation, weighting) interaction
with simulation platform.
Simulation Models Repository Management interaction with
simulation models base or repository;
Simulation Models Connection, Routing and Multi-level management
interaction with simulation models base or repository, simulation
platforms and ECE;
Easy Communication Environment (ECE) Configuration - interaction
with simulation models base or repository.

53

Figure 4.1: FUPOL Simulator preliminary architecture

Agent-Based Micro Models Repository comprises DEVS models set oriented to


FUPOL domain tasks simulation. Perhaps, for one task solving some separate
model interaction is necessary or some data must be sent to the macro level
for system dynamics simulation. The functions mentioned above are realized
by the Multi-level and Distributed Simulation Models Management block. The
block is responsible for attaching the predefined simulation platform, models
deployment, calibration and initialization.
Simulation models, which are mostly realized in heterogeneous environments,
are incompatible. In order to join them, the Easy Communication Environment
(ECE) environment is used (Aizstrauts et al 2012).
ECE is communication mechanism provided for data exchange among
simulation tools and models. The base is a reduced HLA (Perumalla 2009)
exchange mechanism principle of broadcasting. One of the main statements
of ECE is simplicity of use to promote designing of distributed simulation
models for domain specialists who have no specific knowledge in IT and
programming.
The Simulation Initialization and Control block is responsible not only for
simulation process control, but also for interaction with FUPOL Simulation
Software Core platform ESB and FUPOL Spatial Database. Besides that by the
aim of control the visualisation of intermediate and final results and simulation
desktop also must be ensured. The FUPOL Spatial Database must ensure not
only FUPOL, but also user data and storage of results.

4.2 Core Platform Requirements


The FUPOL Simulator is a part of FUPOL software system and therefore must
comply (with some constraints) with the interoperability requirements
accepted in FUPOL software environment. Therefore some requirements for
the FUPOL Simulator software will be formulated.

54

4.2.1 General requirements for Simulator interoperability


FUPOL uses the core platform (see D3.1 Requirements specification and use
cases and D3.2 Preliminary software design description prototype) services
to couple the various modules/services/systems into a single product. Their
purpose is to provide common services like social media access, data storage,
security etc. to the other modules/services/systems. The actual architecture
will be based on an Enterprise Service Bus (ESB) (see Figure 4.2 from D3.2
Chapter Building block view).

Figure 4.2: FUPOL Architecture (see D3.2 Chapter Building Block View)

The FUPOL Simulator is one of the blocks and must comply (with some
constraints) with the interoperability requirements accepted in FUPOL
software environment. These core platform requirements are important for
the selection of the right simulation platform.

General core platform requirements are as follows:

The simulation platform must follow a client-server architecture, where


the serverside part can be operated in the cloud;

55

The simulation platform must not force a local client installation


(everything must run inside a browser). This includes the simulation
platform not storing any data locally on the client (everything must be
pushed to WP3 including configuration data, user preferences etc.);

The simulation platform should support different languages (if not


possible, English is the recommended baseline);

The simulation platform should be able to pull and to push its


geographical data using WFS or WMS protocols;

The simulation platform should be able to use PostgreSQL as the


underlying database system;

The simulation platform should have pluggable security/authentication


that can be well-integrated with the WP3 functionalities (reuse of the
user credentials from WP3);

The simulation platform should be implemented in Java (as a Web


APP/WAR file).

Because simulation data visualisation on GIS is important for simulation


process control and final data representation, the potential GIS platform and
specific requirements to GIS tools will be discussed further in more detail.

4.2.2 Simulator and spatial data processing


GIS is the merging of cartography, statistical analysis, and database
technology. In a general sense, the term describes any information system
that integrates, stores, edits, analyzes, shares and displays geospatial data for
informing decision making.
GIS organizes geographic data so that allows the reader to add layers of
information to a base map of real-world locations. With an ability to combine
a variety of datasets with appropriate layers in an infinite number of ways,
GIS is a useful tool for nearly every field of knowledge.

56

Spatial data is information about things around us, above and below ground,
as well as within us and relate to the FUPOL domains. It is systemized and
structured and includes a spatial (geographical) component. Geographic
components are interconnected and the physical location of an object is
specially defined. Addresses and coordinates are related and continuous
transformation of information occurs between geocoding and reverse
geocoding.
Partially GIS tools will be used for FUPOL Simulator intermediate and final
results visualisation, therefore the selection of the right simulation tools is
closely connected to GIS selection. This determines the main principles for
GIS development and use:
-

Data is stored, entered and maintained in a SQL compatible database;

The user can access this data online in real time through the web;

Data is accessible using various tools;

The system is open source;

The user must be able to download area data layers onto a local device
to create a backup in case the on-line mode is not accessible;

The local device must support the basic functions of a GIS.

Local devices are technical tools: a computer, a pocket PC, a mobile phone, a
navigation device, a measuring tool etc. Every local device must have suitable
software for GIS and simulation support.
The basic GIS data processing principles must be supported:
-

Never create or maintain data that is already being stored (data


reusability);

Large amounts of data, which are not modified frequently, should be


downloaded from the source and stored locally;

Frequently modified data should be accessed online.

The main task of the FUPOL Simulator is running policy models set by using
simulation technologies that conform to the essence of the policy model:
discrete or continuous, determined or stochastic. The workbench of the
FUPOL Simulator must support low level visualisation GUI aimed for
57

simulation process control. However, it will not be enough for decision-making


asking for higher level visualisation. For example, on LUCC modelling using
cellular automatons or agent-based tools the transfer from raster to grid
model is realised. To achieve a more detailed visualisation and to cover the
cartographic layer GIS applications must be used. GIS software must ensure
reading of initial data (CORINE, INSPIRE and user data) from GIS geospatial
database and merging the simulation grid with the cartographic data layer
and visualisation. GIS application must provide storing the simulation results
in geospatial SQL compatible data base for further analysis and use.
Further some specific requirements to GIS software will be mentioned in
addition to general requirements to simulation software tools and policy
modelling packages formulated in D4.1 Part 5 and 6.

The GIS software must ensure Web Map Service (WMS) (raster format) and
Web Feature Service (WFS) (vector format). Usually this is a string of
commands entered into the configuration of the program, which also work in
the browser. The result is the selected data, which is displayed in raster or
vector graphics or as text. Service operations are standardised and
information exchange occurs using HTTP requests.
Basic WMS service functions are:
-

Determination of resources;

Data retrieval from the source;

Error interception.

This is implemented using such commands as GetCapabilities, GetMap etc.


The result can then be used as needed, for example, to change the scale, to
zoom in on a point by using the Zoom In functionality of the software. A
new request will then be sent to the server and the answer will arrive as a
new data layer. Every user must have the possibility to create new data layers
and implement their intended data input based on the currently accessible
information.
To create and maintain the simulation results, the following is necessary:
58

Information storage in a SQL compatible database (on a local device or


remotely);

Information can be stored as vector or raster graphics, or ASCII text


information.

User generated simulation results are used together with downloaded data,
usually in a synchronous mode, if a data connection with the information
source is available. If a data connection is not available, a locally stored copy
is used.
Downloaded information should never be modified. If errors are detected,
data must be corrected at the original place of storage, therefore its provider
must be notified, and the information has to be downloaded again.
Further this paper marks some available GIS solutions suitable for FUPOL
Simulator avoiding of commercial products use. An extensive list of opensource

and

free

GIS

software

can

be

found

at

http://www.spatialanalysisonline.com/SoftwareFree.pdf. The requirements to


GIS platform formulated above would be input for WP3.

Map Server is open-source data server software that was developed at the
Minnesota University in the 90ties. Map Server works on various platforms
(Windows, Linux, Mac OS). It does not feature full GIS functionality and is not
designed that way. The main programming language is C, but Perl, Ruby,
.Net can also be used. The software can be used free of charge
http://mapserver.org/copyright.html. Popular data formats can be used as
data sources, for example, Bentley MicroStation DGN or ESRI shape vector
data files, or GeoTiff raster data.
Data output can ensure: Map Server data display technology (AGG);
Antialiasing Rendering (reduces jagged edges); Dynamic Charting (automatic
graph generation from object attributes); Flash (raster and vector graphics,
text and image animation); HTML legends and maps (a new approach instead
of traditional GIF legends); SVG (Scalable Vector Graphics, a standardised
XML language for the display of vector graphics); PDF (Vector and raster
layers are supported); KML (Used in Google Earth); OGR (Object output driver
59

to transfer WFS and WMS data in a supported format); Tile mode (different
map detail at different zoom levels).
The following services have been ensured: WMS and WFS client (Web Map
Sevice and Web Feature Service client); WMS and WFS server (Web Map
Server and Web Feature Server server); WMS Time (an information layer with
a time component); Map Context (allows the client application to download
map configuration content in standard XML format); WFS Filter encoding
(spatial activity support, for example, detection of similar objects, objects
within objects, objects have a point of contact or are located at a distance, all
comparison operators etc.); SLD (Styled Layer Descriptor, object level styles);
SOS (Sensor Observation Service, retrieval and processing of sensor data).

Map server is widely used in the Czech Republic, also in government


institutions.

An alternative and functional open-source solution is NASA World Wind a


virtual globe. The software was released in 2004 and is now developed by
members of the open source community. It is similar to Google Earth. The
user can rotate the globe, zoom in and out, view various map layers. The API
is available to every user and everyone can add cartographic layers using
previously mentioned mechanisms like WFS and WMS.
World Wind has several functions that allow geographical and geometric data
to be displayed in a virtual environment: Open-source, 3D, high performance
virtual globe development environment and system development kit; Suitable
geographical data display functionality that can be used in other products;
Works on Windows, Linux and Mac; Working in web pages; A free usage and
development licence; A huge data collection is available from NASA servers;
An open standard; Uses Java and OpenGL; Can be used as an WMS server; A
wide range of geographical possibilities; Compatible with many formats
(JPEG, PNG, GeoTiff, NITF MrSID, ShapeFiles, KML, GML, NMEA); Working
with different coordinate systems; Provides data analysis functionality;
Accepts WMS and WFS GIS service protocols; A standard layer model with
60

transparency

and

visibility

control;

Animation

functionality;

Vast

documentation and many software development examples; A support forum.


More information about functionality at http://goworldwind.org/

GeoServer tool-set provides a joint open-source software platform for spatial


data processing. PostGis is a spatial extension for the PostGre database. One
example where PostGis is used is the OpenStreetMap (OSM) project. PostGis
supports most GIS functions, such as:
-

Database spatial data structure management (adds, deletes


geometry type data columns, sets the SRID (Spatial Reference
Identifier) coordinate system identifier);
Relation functions for geometric objects (distance, identity,
concurrence, intersection, point of contact, inside/outside, overlay,
overlaid with, has/does not have a relation);
Geometric object process functions (centroid, width, length, point
on a surface, border, buffer zone, minimal polygons around objects,
object coalescence/division);
Geometric object management (converts geometry into a line of
text or into binary form, determines SRID, geometry type, checks
whether the geometry is empty, checks whether the geometry is
erroneous, whether the geometry is locked, whether a curved line
crosses itself, number of points in a broken line etc.).
full

list

of

features

is

available

at

http://postgis.refractions.net/documentation/.
Because PostGis (PostgreSQL) is only storage, a GeoServer mechanism is
necessary to present the data to the user and maintain it (see
http://opengeo.org/publications/opengeo-architecture). Example of pontential
PostGIS and GeoServer use for FUPOL Simulator design see in Figure 4.3.

61

Figure 4.3: PostGIS based FUPOL Simulator spatial data processing system

Visualisation of simulation results could be ensured by GeoExt, but for


geospatial data (initial, intermediate and final results) store PostGIS data base
could be used.
Therefore it is recommended that for visualisation of FUPOL Simulator results
one of following GIS platforms could be selected: Map Server, NASA World
Wind or GeoServer tools.

4.3 FUPOL

Simulator

Desktop

User

Interface

(GUI)

Requirements
In the FUPOL project at least two kinds of visualisation of data must be
distinguished:
-

Visualisation of the modelling results (WP5);

Visualisation of the simulation desktop (WP4).

The aim of D4.1is GUI requirements determination for FUPOL Simulators


desktop designing asking for more detailed analysis of GUI features that are
already partially done in D3.2 and D5.1.

62

The GUI is part of an electronic machine or device, which serves as tool for
information exchange between the user and the machine/device (EU-OSHA
2012). GUI consists of three parts (EU-OSHA 2012): operating elements,
displays and an internal structure. The internal structure connects the
hardware with the software. Operating elements send information to the
users and the display displays this information. GUI has to be ergonomic and
easily understandable.
The GUI is more important than basic system functionality. Even systems with
a bad user interface can function properly, but it is going to take the user
more time to do the same task than if he would work with a good interface. A
good user interface makes interaction intuitive. A weak interface alienates
potential users and can cause system errors. The most common errors occur
because the user cannot understand the provided information.
To develop a good user interface, three human factors have to be taken into
account

(Chikhaoui,

Pigot

2008):

type

of

perception

(most

people

comprehend visual information better), cognitive ability (human memory),


motor function (to press the chosen menu/button).
GUI development is related to the international ISO 9241 and ISO 13407
standards. These standards cover the work with computers and other
interactive systems as well as combine knowledge about software engineering
and cognitive ergonomics (EU-OSHA 2012).
It is declared that a user interface has to meet the following criteria (Travis
2007, EU-OSHA 2012):
suitability for the task (the dialogue should be suitable for the users
task and skill level);
self-descriptiveness (the dialogue should make it clear what the user
should do next);
controllability (the user should be able to control the pace and
sequence of the interaction);
conformity with user expectations (it should be consistent);
error tolerance (the dialogue should be forgiving);
suitability for individualisation (the dialogue should be able to be
customised to suit the user);
Suitability for learning (the dialogue should support learning).
63

The ISO 9241-12:1998 standard Ergonomic requirements for work with


displays

determines

how

to

display

information

on

displays.

The

recommendations are based on seven guiding principles (Travis 2007):

clarity (information should be conveyed quickly and accurately);


discriminability (information should be accurately distinguishable);
conciseness (provide only the information necessary to complete the
task);
consistency (present the same information in the same way throughout
the application);
detectability (direct the users attention to the information required);
legibility (information should be easy to read);
Comprehensibility (the meaning should be clearly understandable).

Mandel (Mandel 1997) offers three principles for user interface design:
Place users in control of the interface the user must be able to
customize the interface and manipulate its objects (interactively); provide
feedback; provide descriptive reports; make the user interface transparent;
Reduce users memory load the interface should be intuitive so the
user does not have to memorize how to use it; provide visual aids; undo and
redo functionality must be available; interface shortcuts must exist; the
interface has to be demonstrative;
Make the user interface consistent support contextual user tasks;
consistency between products has to be maintained; the results of interaction
should be equal; users should be encouraged to explore.
Visual attributes provide a good impression and point to interacting objects.
At the same time it must be remembered that every visual element on the
screen in competing for the users attention (Microsoft Corporation 1995).
The interface should be consistent, because it allows a user to use previously
acquired knowledge in a new task set. The user will not have to waste time to
remember the differences between interactions (Microsoft Corporation 1995).
The program has to be interactive and responsive (reactive). A typical user
can only tolerate a few seconds of a non-responsive interface (Microsoft
Corporation 1995). Effective feedback is timely and close to the user
interaction with the interface.

64

To design a good interface the above-mentioned guidelines and standards


should be taken into account, as well as specific guidelines corresponding to
web applications.
The registration forms must be understandable and obligatory fields
should be marked with a red asterisk (Vora 2009). Forms should utilize menu
lists from which a user can select the necessary option thus minimizing the
chances for error.
Navigation has to be divided into levels and the user must know where he is
within the application. This functionality can be provided using location trails
(Vora 2009).
If it is necessary to use wizards, the number of steps should not exceed
five to seven, and the user has to be made aware of the current stage (Vora
2009).
Contrasts should be used in the design; related information must be visually
grouped and page elements that appear on all pages must be in the same
place (logo, menus, header and footer) (Vora 2009). Familiar icons must be
used.
The FUPOL simulator interface has to be developed in accordance to the
previously mentioned guidelines and standards, as well as specific guidelines
that refer to Internet applications because the simulator will be accessed
through the web. The simulator interface must have the following features:

A simple, transparent and intuitive interface;


It must utilize a simple colour palette;
Utilize colour analogies. Green symbolizes good, red error and yellow
warning;
The user must be able to customize menus and views;
The control panel must have shortcuts and configuration options.
Standardised icons must be used and content has to be grouped by
significance;
The dashboard must allow to change the types of charts, be
transparent and fit onto one screen;
The dashboard must display important user data in various ways;
The number of steps in wizards should not exceed 5 to 7 and the
current stage has to apparent. At the end of the wizard, the user must
be able to see all entered information and correct it if necessary;
65

Familiar and recognizable icons must be used;


Navigation has to be placed horizontally at the top and selected
functionality has to be highlighted;
The registration form has to be easily understandable and obligatory
fields must be marked with a red asterisk. Predefined menus, from
which the user can select the most appropriate option, must be used;
Explanations, a help file and video tutorials must be available;
The application has to be adapted to different target groups;
The interface has to be consistent;
Save, undo and redo functionality must be available, preferably using
familiar icons.
The user location trail has to be displayed;
The navigation pane must be highlighted;
Icons must adhere to one style;
Keyboard shortcuts must be enabled (for example, ctrl + z for undo
functionality);
The application must be stable;
A confirmation dialog must be displayed if the user wants to close the
application without saving data;
New features have to be advertised;
The registration form has to be short;
Helpful hints must be highlighted;
Information that will not be alterable must be highlighted.

For the aims of the FUPOL GUI Requirements validation more than 135
respondents from governmental and municipal departments working with
cadastral and land used data were interviewed to determine which features
are vital for a good user interface. 14% characterized their computer skills as
basic or beginner level, 57% were average, 23% were specialists, and only
6% considered themselves experts (see Figure 4.4).

66

Computer skills
14%

6%
Expert
Average

23%

Specialist
Beginner

57%

Figure 4.4: Interviewed GUI users breakdown (Computer skills)

The most important feature mentioned by respondents was application


stability. As shown in Figure 4.5, only 1% of all respondents do not consider
stability important. This attribute must be taken into account when developing
the application and its interface.

Is application stability important?


0%

1%

4%

Very important
Important

29%
Important rather than not
important
66%

Not important rather than


important
Not important

Figure 4.5: Application stability relevance

67

Of all 135 respondents, more than half noted that they do not consider
it important to be able to customize the appearance and change application
skins. Only 3% considered it very important and 9% believed it to be a vital
part of the application (see Figure 4.6).

Is appearance customization important?


3%
Very important

9%
27%

Important
18%

Important rather than not


important
Not important rather than
important
Not important

43%

Figure 4.6: Appearance customization assessment

More than half of the respondents prefer horizontal menus to vertical ones,
but to 27% it does not matter whether menus are vertical or horizontal (see
Figure 4.7).

68

Menu placement

27%

Prefer horizontal
Prefer vertical
59%

Not important

14%

Figure 4.7: Menu placement relevance

A little over half like the possibility to customize menus to their needs,
meaning they can be grouped, added and removed. Only 20% believed it to
be not important. 26% considered it to be very important or important (see
Figure 4.8). Based on these results, if it is possible, menu customization
features should be added to the interface.

Is the ability to add and remove application


menus important?
Very important
20%
26%
5%

Important
Important rather than not
important

23%

26%

Not important rather than


important
Not important

Figure 4.8: Application menu customization assessment

69

In the development of the user interface, familiar icons should be used. For
example, the floppy disk on the save icon, the printer for printing, because
users can therefore apply already acquired knowledge. Figure 4.9 shows that
20% of respondents consider this attribute very important and 49% believe it
is important.

Is it important to be able to use familiar


icons?
Very important

4%
9%

20%
Important

18%

Important rather than not


important
Not important rather than
important
49%

Not important

Figure 4.9: Importance of familiar icons use

Figure 4.10 allows to conclude that most respondent use keyboard shortcuts
ctrl+c, ctrl+v, ctrl+z, ctrl+y. Only 6% considered this feature not important
and 10% deemed it not important rather than important. 35% think that it is
very important.

70

Is it important to be able to use keyboard


shortcuts?
Very important

6%
10%
35%

Important
Important rather than not
important

16%

Not important rather than


important
Not important
33%

Figure 4.10: Importance of keyboard shortcuts use

Most respondents noted that they consider the grouping of related


information important. Only 1% deemed it not important (see Figure 4.11).

Is it important to visually group related


information?
1%
Very important

4%
24%
21%

Important
Important rather than not
important
Not important rather than
important

50%

Not important

Figure 4.11: The importance of grouping information

71

The analysis shows that 20 most important interface features for FUPOL
Simulators desktop are:

Stability;
Transparency;
Must be adapted to achieve a specific objective;
When using wizards, entered information must be displayed and
editable at the last stage;
Saving, undo and redo functionality must be available;
Navigation must be visually grouped and logical;
Related information must be visually grouped;
Obligatory fields must be marked;
Tabbed browsing must be used;
The user must be notified if some information will not be
alterable;
The control panel must use standardised icons and they have to
be grouped by importance;
The user must be made aware of wizard stages (how many there
are and which one is currently active);
The users must be asked whether he wants to close the
application without saving changes;
The menu has to be highlighted (different from the rest of the
page);
Familiar icons must be used;
When filling out a form, predefined choice menus must be used
as often as possible;
Data analysis results have to fit onto one screen.
The control page must contain shortcuts and the most important
sections;
The page design (placement) has to be consistent;
Keyboard shortcuts such as ctrl+z, ctrl+c, ctrl+v must be
enabled.

To determine the relationship between user computer skills and interface


features/options, the correlation analysis was done. Tests results showed that
the opportunity to customize the look of the page or application, the
possibility to view the location trail and the option to be asked whether to
save data when closing the application depends on the computer skills of the
user. In conclusion, the higher the computer skills of the user, the more

72

important these features are. Other features are not dependent on the
computer skills of the user.
The requirements mentioned above must be respected during assessment of
generic simulation tools and also policy model simulation packages.

4.4 Assessment criteria for generic tools and policy model


simulation software packages
Two possible solutions can be used to construct the FUPOL Simulator as a
programming tool:
-

Generic simulation software tools;

Specific policy models simulation packages oriented to prescribed


domain.

Specific criteria were developed to evaluate the above-mentioned software


groups. The choice of criteria was determined by:
-

Policy domain specific and policy model specification features (D2.1,


D2.2 and 4.2);

Core platform requirements (D3.1, D3.2);

Specific of FUPOL Simulator potential architecture and functionality


(5.1, 5.3).

The main criterions for FUPOL Simulator generic tools and policy models
simulation software packages review are following:

Licensing (commercial, freeware, shareware, and open-source, price,


rules of usage);

Spreading and sustainability (how widespread and how long exists,


technical support);

Resolution and scalability (model dimensions);

Documentation (quality of software documentation);

73

Architecture

(desktop,

client-server,

web

services,

distributed

models);
-

Interoperability (with other platforms, environments and tools, web


services);

Environment (operating system, specific environment, programming


languages, compiler or interpreter);

Applications (scratches, libraries, GIS, different domains);

GUI (possibilities aimed to simulation desktop design).

A further explanation for the choice of criteria is provided below.


Licencing The FUPOL Simulator is intended to be available free of charge;
therefore the use of commercial products is not advisable. It is possible to
make use of products that are available for a one-time fee, but it would not
be prudent to utilize tools that require a monthly subscription fee, employ a
pay-per-use or pay-per-user license model. It is advisable to take advantage
of open-source solutions, which can be altered and customized.
Spreading and sustainability It is not expedient to opt for one-day
solutions the future and development of which is unknown. It is necessary to
offer technical support to the author or a vast user community, which
guarantees maintenance and consultation possibilities. Widely used solutions
have the advantage of being thoroughly tested and offer a reduced possibility
for errors in simulation tools.
Resolution and/or scalability This requirement is specific and targets
agent-based simulation tools and cellular automatons, to ensure a sufficiently
large number of agents and/or cells in the goal model. This would guarantee
a sufficiently high resolution, for example, in LUCC models. However, a similar
requirement would be necessary in case of using other simulation
technologies if it is necessary to determine the number of blocks a model
consists of or the amount of links in a model.
Documentation It is not possible to create and develop adequate
simulation models without quality software documentation or user and
administrator manuals. The documentation must be clear and conform to the
74

real world use of the program. The existence of documentation indicates


product sustainability.
Architecture The simulation tools must provide multi-user access to the
FUPOL Simulator using the Internet and ensure the possibility to create
distributed simulation models, which can collaborate within a single task.
Interoperability

Interoperability

with

other

simulation

platforms,

software, and DBMS is necessary to create distributed simulation models,


ensure data exchange (export, import) and synchronization. Also WP3 Core
platform requirements for collaboration (web services use through ESB is
recommended).
Environment The product must support different operating system
environments. It would be preferable if the simulation tools and packages
offered user application compiling functionality, which improves simulation
productivity and application security.
Applications A varied and extensive number of applications is necessary to
ensure FUPOL Simulator construction possibilities using existing software
libraries and modules. A comprehensive set of applications indicates usability
of the simulation tools.
GUI The User Interface is a specific functionality requirement (5.3 offers a
requirement analysis from the user perspective). It is necessary to implement
a desktop visualization of the FUPOL simulator in order to enter parameters
and layout configuration (basic requirements are explained in WP3 and WP5),
as well as for the control of intermediate results (graphs, tables, 2D/3D
visualisation forms etc.).

The above-mentioned are basic criteria for the selection of generic simulation
tools and specific policy domain modelling packages. However, in accordance
with the utilized simulation technology, additional criteria may be assigned.
These are further examined when choosing the specific technology.

75

5 Review of Generic Simulation Software Tools


In the current chapter generic simulation software tools analysis depending
on the potential policy model and goal system essence is given. The generic
tools are selected in conformity with the requirements elaborated in D2.2 and
parts 3 and 4 of current deliverable. Therefore most probabilistic applications
are analysed in more detail than technologies the use of which is unlikely.

5.1 Classification of simulation technologies and related


tools
To analyse some process or phenomena inter alia in policy is necessary to
negotiate about the form of the target object specification i.e. Joint language
and rules. Usually it is considered that the research object will be described as
a system.
System (from Latin systma, in turn from Greek systma) is a set of
entities, real or abstract, comprising a whole where each component interacts
with or is related to at least one other component and they all serve a
common objective. Any object which has no relation with any other element
of the system is not part of that system but rather of the system
environment. A subsystem then is a set of elements, which is a system itself,
and a part of the whole system (Wikipedia 2012).
Some different definitions of the system are possible for example (Banks et al
1996) wrote that a system is defined as group of objects that are joined
together in some regular interaction or interdependence towards the
accomplishment of some purpose, but Chang 2004 mention that a system is
defined as a collection of interacting components that receives input and
provides output for some purpose.
In any case the following features of the system could be emphasized:

Any System has its own Concept (goal, objective) and Constraints;
Organizational structure involves Objects and Links;
Each Object (entity) has Attributes;
76

Interaction and Interdependence among Objects and between System


and its Environment and among different systems;
A System can be Closed or stay relatively Open;
Systems are tended to Self-organization, Cognition and continual
Evolution.

The classification of systems could be different, but taking into account


FUPOL objectives and domains, the right approach would be classification
respecting the nature of the target system:

Physical and Conceptual or Abstract system;


Open and Closed systems;
Continuous and Discrete systems;
Static and Dynamic systems;
Linear and Non-linear systems;
Deterministic and Stochastic systems;
Technical, Social (environmental, biological etc.) and Sociotechnical
systems.

The physical system involves real-world objects and phenomena, but the
abstract system really is the reflection or simplified description of the real
world. For open systems interaction and interdependence between the system
and its environment and with outer systems is typical. For technical systems
interaction and interdependence among objects inside a system and limited
interaction with its environment is inherent. The research object in FUPOL
belongs to the open systems group. The attitude to measuring time is also
important. If some event is always occurring then the system is continuous. If
the system events occurred according to discrete jumps in the time clock then
this is discrete-event system. From this point of view policy would belong to
both kinds of the system. Behaviour of the system would be static, stationary
and dynamic. The FUPOL domains would be rather recognized as dynamic
systems. Other important parameter is linearity or non-linearity of the system.
If the system complies with rules of homogeneity and additivity then it is
linear. Unfortunately, FUPOL objects mostly are non-linear and therefore the
research is very hard. To avoid this some simplification of the systems are
done that reduce accuracy but keep the trend. Some systems, but only few
are deterministic, i.e. the next state of the system is always known and the
77

total set of the states is finite. Unfortunately, most systems are stochastic,
where the next state of the system is only predictable with appropriate
probability. And finally the systems would be technical, social and
sociotechnical. The FUPOL research object is sociotechnical system, for which
inherent is:

Wide amount of important factors that can be stochastic;


Wide interaction with different outer systems;
Model of the goal system can vary during the session;
Self-organization, Cognition and continual Evolution is typical;
Involves humans, social groups, biological and environmental objects
as well technical systems and tools.

Since experiments with the real system because of different reasons (cost,
time, replication, danger, and legality) are cumbersome, a model of the goal
system must be designed. A model could be defined as a representation of a
system for the purpose of studying the system (Banks et al 1996). The Model
must comply with the class (classification) of the system.
Simulation is a specific kind of modelling. There are some definitions of
simulation. One of them declares that simulation would be the imitation of the
operation of a real-world process or system over time (Banks et al 1996).
Simulation is used when the application of analytic methods is very
cumbersome or practically impossible (stochastic processes, high complexity,
too risky etc.). Simulation may often be the cheaper alternative. It allows
easily compressing or expanding time. Simulation ensures replication of the
experiment and offers a risk-free environment. However, simulation will not
give absolutely accurate results; therefore it is recommended to use
simulation to develop theories rather than accurate models (Gilbert et al
2006).
Simulation technologies must fit to the model in the same way as model must
comply with the goal system. There are some simulation technologies:

System dynamics and world (large systems) models;


Micro analytical simulation models;
Queuing models;
Multilevel simulation models;
78

Cellular automata;
Agent-based models;
Learning and evolutionary models.

More or less all of them would be used for FUPOL domains modelling.
Different software tools are elaborated for running technologies. The specific
requirements for tools assessment are already discussed in previous chapters.
Further assessment of generic tools and specific packages is based on
experience of associates of the Sociotechnical Systems Engineering Institute
who have worked for more than 15 years in the field of simulation.

5.2 System dynamics simulation software


System dynamics is a methodology for studying and managing complex
feedback systems based on difference or differential equations and equation
systems. System dynamics combines the theory, methods, and philosophy
needed to analyze the behaviour of systems in not only management, but
also in environmental change, politics, economic behaviour, medicine,
engineering, and other fields (Forrester 1991). System dynamics would be
used for analysis of the system changes in continuous time in a predefined
period. The application areas described with system dynamics typically are:

Corporate planning and policy design;


Public management and policy;
Biological and medical modelling;
Energy and the environment theory;
Development in the natural and social sciences;
Dynamic decision making;
Complex nonlinear dynamics.

There are many software tools for system dynamics models running, but in
conformity with FUPOL specific it is worthwhile to mention VenSim, PowerSim
and STELLA.

STELLA (Ford 1999) (http://www.iseesystems.com) in 1980s was created by


Barry Richmond, but still is under development and is the basis for different
79

specialized simulation tools as iThink and other. STELLA introduced and


integrated graphical interface using icons to develop stock-and-flow diagrams,
and tieing these icons to the underlying equations. STELLA use multi-level
visualisation approach making transparent model designing and running
processes. Tha STELLA window is divided into four tabbed pages: Interface,
Map, Model, and Equation. Each tab represents a distinct layer in the model
and each provides a different way of designing and presenting a model:

Map layer is where thinking in the form of a map is presented;


Model layer ("engine room") transforms maps into models that can
be simulated;
Interface layer provides with the tools needed for engaging enduser interfaces to the models. The Interface layer makes it possible
to transform a model into a compelling environment for learning;
Equation gives a list of all the equations that make up the model
and would be used for verification.

Stock and Flow diagrams support the common language of systems thinking
and provide insight into how systems work. Enhanced stock types enable
discrete and continuous processes with support for queues, ovens, and
enhanced

conveyors.

Causal

Loop

Diagrams

present

overall

causal

relationships. Built-in functions facilitate mathematical, statistical, and logical


operations. Modules support multi-level, hierarchical model structures that
can serve as building blocks for model construction. Sensitivity analysis
reveals key leverage points and optimal conditions. Results presented as
graphs, tables, animations, QuickTime movies, and files. Dynamic data
import/export links exist to Microsoft Excel. Save as Runtime option creates
full-screen, runtime models. Multimedia support triggers graphics, movies,
sounds, and text messages based on model conditions.
STELLA has some extensions allowing connection and publishing the models
on the Internet. isee NetSim is the next generation in web-based model
sharing. With isee NetSim is possible quickly and easily publish STELLA and

iThink models to the web making them accessible to anyone with a HTTP
browser.

80

STELLA works under Microsoft Windows 2000/XP/Vista/7 and Mac OS


10.2.8 - 10.6.8. STELLA is commercial product and a designer license costs up
to USD 1899, and NetSim Server costs up to USD 995, however these costs
are important for designers not beneficiaries.

Vensim Professional (http://www.vensim.com) can be used for managing


large and mode complicated models. It provides Causal TracingTM of structure
and behaviour, and has Monte Carlo sensitivity, optimization and subscripting
(array) capabilities. Vensim contains an efficient simulation engine providing
fast simulation times and allowing storage of huge datasets. Very large
models can be compiled in C for even faster simulation. Vensim can also be
run over a network allowing multiple users to interact with a single model.
Vensim can use external data series as exogenous inputs to drive a model or
to compare against data from simulation runs. It is possible to create external
data in text editors, or import from (or export to) database and spreadsheet
applications. A Vensim model can be automatically calibrated to fit historical
data series. The Powell hill climbing algorithm searches for the best set of
policy parameter values to maximize the payoff.
Vensim DSS adds an interface development tool for creating management
flight simulators, external functions and macros, compiled simulations, and
more. Custom Vensim applications (flight simulators and other interfaces to
models) can be developed with the Venapp builder, or in a programming
language such as Visual Basic, C, C++, Visual C++, Delphi, Excel, and
multimedia authoring tools, or in Sable. The Vensim family of software runs
on Windows XP/Vista/7. Vensim is a 32 bit progam but will run fine on 64 bit
versions of Windows. The Macintosh version requires OSX version 10.4 or
higher on an Intel processor. The Windows Version will also run on the
Macintosh using emulators like VMware, or with a Windows virtual/alternate
boot installation. Vensim is one of the most popular ways to create models for
web

deployment

at

Forio

Simulation

On-line

Environment

(http://forio.com/simulate/showcase/). Some good samples exist int.al. in


81

FUPOL domains like housing (see Housing Supply & Demand simulated on
http://forio.com/simulate/netsim/housing-supply-and-demand/overview/).
VenSim is a commercial product with the full license price USD 1995, but
access through the Internet to the simulation models does not require
additional investments.

Powersim Studio 9 Premium (http://www.powersim.com) edition is the fullscale platform of Studio, providing unequalled functionality for building,
analyzing and sharing of large business simulations in a corporate
environment. Key features include:

A new platform version of Powersim Studio targeting 64-bit Windows is


now available, allowing for larger models and increased simulation
performance;
The maximum number of elements per variable can now be increased
to a maximum of 10,000,000 elements;
The amount of memory used to store all elements of all variables in
the active simulation is now displayed in the Statistics page of the
Project Information dialog (maximum 192 GB);
It is now possible to have up to 1,000,000 runs in a simulation;
The user interface of Studio has undergone a facelift. The icons in
toolbars, menus, and the various windows of the application are now
true colour icons;
A presentation in Powersim Studio can now have sidekick windows that
allow adding new visual elements and more dynamics to presentations;
It is now possible to import values to start-up variables through
datasets;
Possibilities for ranges make working with arrays easier;
Dynamic ranges allows the end user to add elements to an array;
Element names can be shared among enumeration ranges;
RUNRANGE gives a dimension that corresponds to all runs;
Collaboration, build components to share with modellers and keep
track of who did the last changes to a variable, unit or range;
Premium has a SAP Certified Dataset which allows connection to BI
NetWeaver 3.5;
The Database Dataset allows connecting to any relational database,
setting up the connection is supported by a wizard;
Connect to Microsoft Excel through the Excel Dataset or use a drag and
drop into Studio using the XLDATA function;
82

Use Run Optimization, Risk analysis and Risk management and sharing
the results with, and even allow for input by, the beneficiary.

Studio 9 Simulation Engine Server allows the developer to install a license on


one server to accompany a solution built to be accessed from a server or
through the web. Each Server license can be installed at one server and used
by a number of concurrent users given by the licenses agreement. It serves
either 10, 25 or 50 concurrent users. Powersim GIS Analyzer can be used to
present the simulation results in a GIS system. The GIS/LINE Simulation tool
from Norkart as well as maps for the target area is necessary. Unfortunately
Powersim GIS Analyzer and the corresponding GIS/Line Simulation software is
only available in the Norwegian market. Powersim has Software Development
Kit (SDK) - a software library that can be used by programmers to include
simulations in custom-designed software applications to be run in the
Microsoft Windows environment. It allows:

Developing simulations for the web;


Include simulations in Windows applications;
Create multi-user simulation games;
Create integrated desktop applications.

Powersim is a commercial product with the same price range as the system
dynamics simulation products mentioned above.

5.3 Discrete-event systems simulation tools


Discrete-event simulation models relate to discrete systems where the status
of the system is recognizable after the predefined time step. Partially in
conformity with the definition cellular automata, agent-based tools etc. also
belong to discrete-event simulation systems. However practically under the
discrete-event systems (DEVS) queuing systems are considered.
Queuing model (Gross et al 1998) is used to approximate a real queuing
situation

or

system,

so

the

queuing

behaviour

can

be

analysed

mathematically. Queuing models (Queuing model 2007) include following


performance measures:
83

Average number in the queue, or the system;


Average time spent in the queue, or the system;
Statistical distribution of those numbers or times;
Probability the queue is full, or empty;
Probability of finding the system in a particular state.

A queuing system is characterised by three components:

Arrival process (generation the requests, customers etc. with


appropriate distribution);
Queue discipline (FIFO, LIFO, priority etc.);
Service mechanism (processing the calling population by server).

Queuing models can be used for modelling check-in in the airport, traffic
systems, call centres, hospital waiting lists etc. Queuing systems mostly are:
discrete-event, dynamic and stochastic. Different methods and tools are used
for queuing systems modelling: analytical formulas and Markov chains,
queuing models simulators DELSI 1.1., OMNET++, QSIM, business process
simulators QPR Process etc. and general discrete-event systems simulators
(ExtendSim, SIMPLE++, Arena, SIMUL8, AutoMod, WITNESS etc.).
More or less the general discrete-event systems simulator software packages
of all bigger players are similar, therefore only some of them will be discussed
bellow: ExtendSim, Arena and Simul8.

ExtendSim (previous EXTEND) (http://www.extendsim.com) is an easy-touse, yet extremely powerful, tool for simulating processes. It helps for
understanding of complex systems and produce better results faster.
Modelling capabilities are following:

A full set of building blocks that allows building models rapidly;


A customizable graphical interface that depicts the relationships in the
modelled system;
Unlimited hierarchical decomposition making enterprise-wide models
easy to build and understand;
Dialogs, Notebooks, and an integrated database for changing model
values;
2D and realistic 3D animation of the model for enhanced presentation;
A full-featured authoring environment for building user-friendly front
ends that simplify model interaction and enhance communication;
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The ability to adjust settings dynamically, while the simulation is


running;
An equation editor for creating custom-compiled equations;
The ability to create new blocks with custom dialogs and icons;
Complete scalability since model size is limited only by the limits of
goal system;
Evolutionary optimization, Monte Carlo, batch-mode, and sensitivity
analysis;
Customizable reports and plotters for presentation and in-depth
analysis;
Activity-based costing capabilities for analyzing cost contributors;
Full connectivity and interactivity with other programs and platforms.

A robust architecture adds advanced features to make ExtendSim the most


scalable simulation system available:

Multi-purpose simulation. ExtendSim is a multi-domain environment


and support continuous, discrete event, discrete rate, agent-based,
linear, non-linear, and mixed-mode systems simulation, however
mainly it is targeted on discrete-event systems;
Library based. The new blocks designed by modeller can be saved in
libraries and easily reused in other models;
Integrated compiled programming language and dialog editor,
optimized for simulation;
Scripting support. It is possible to build and run models remotely,
either from an ExtendSim block or from another application;
Integrated support for other programming languages. It is possible to
use ExtendSims built-in APIs to access code created in Delphi, C++
Builder, Visual Basic, Visual C++, etc.;
Over 1000 functions. Directly access functions for integration,
statistics, queuing, animation, IEEE math, matrix, sounds, arrays, FFT,
debugging, DLLs, string and bit manipulation, I/O, and so on; you can
also define your own functions;
Message sending. Blocks can send messages to other blocks
interactively for sub processing;
Sophisticated data-passing capabilities. It is possible to pass values,
arrays, or structures composed of arrays;
Full support for a wide range of data types and structures. Arrays,
linked-lists, and integers, real, and string data types are built in;
Integrated data linking. It is possible to connect block dialog data to
internal databases.
85

Despite of the promises, in reality it is a discrete-event product oriented to


queue simulation and logistics tasks. As usually any good problem oriented
tool, ExtendSim is a commercial product. Most powerful version is ExtendSim
Suite, which costs USD 5000. However, the ExtendSim toolset features
ASP/SaaS (Application Service Provider/Software as a Service) providing
access to ExtendSim functionality over the Internet. Unfortunately prices start
at USD 5000. There is also an annual renewal fee for ASP licenses after the
first year. The renewal fee is 20% of the original purchase price. More
expensive is OEM version allowing embedded ExtendSim use. The price of
OEM license exceeds more than USD 50000.

Arena (http://www.arenasimulation.com) simulation software by Rockwell


Automation is effective when analyzing complex, medium to large-scale
projects involving highly sensitive changes related to supply chain,
manufacturing, processes, logistics, distribution, warehousing, and service
systems. With Arena modeller develops custom templates that consist of
libraries of modelling objects that make it significantly easier and faster to
develop models that require repeat logic. Templates include Basic Process,
Advanced Process, Advanced Transfer, Flow Process and Blocks and
Elements, but tools include OptQuest for Arena and Visual Designer.
OptQuest for Arena is an optimization tool (solver) customized and finetuned for analyzing the results of simulation runs conducted in Arena
(experimentation). OptQuest includes sampling techniques and advanced
error control to find better answers faster, and incorporates state-of-the-art
algorithms based on tabu search, scatter search, integer programming, and
neural networks. This well-researched technology has been shown to be
orders of magnitude faster than simpler approaches.
With Arena is possible reuse existing knowledge and data through built-in
spreadsheet and interface to standard databases such as Microsoft Excel
and Access. It is possible to generate custom user and data interfaces with
Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) and ActiveX controls. Arena
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has comprehensive reporting capability through Crystal Reports, including


graphs publishable as HTML, Microsoft Word, Excel, and more.
Pricing for Arena starts at USD 2500 for the Basic version. Unfortunately, the
product line is still weakly complying with requirements to distributed
modelling and tendencies of simulation engineering development in the
Internet environment.

Simul8 (http://www.simul8.com) is a discrete-event simulation software


package ensuring different levels of modellers knowledge. The simplest is the
Basic version. SIMUL8 Basic 2012 is certified compatible with VBA in Excel,
Access, Word and Visio. SIMUL8 Basic 2012 can connect to Microsoft Visio
and read Visio files. To read Visio *.VDX files (the standard in Visio 2002 and
above) Visio is not required. To read Visio *.VSD files (versions before 2002)
Visio 5.0 or above must be installed. SIMUL8 Professional is a huge step up
from SIMUL8 Basic and adds a new dimension to simulation possibilities. It is
possible to drive SIMUL8 from other interfaces including Microsoft Excel, VBA,
VB, C++, and Delphi. Professional version support the control of data more
easily by connecting to any database that supports SQL to read from, write to
or query SIMUL8. SIMUL8 Viewer allows sharing the simulations with other
modellers or beneficiaries who don't have a full SIMUL8 license. It costs
approximately USD 5000. To ensure network operations the network licenses
are necessary. These are very expensive, for example, 3 node licences cost
more than USD 17000. Unfortunately Simul8 also lacks web service simulation
features.

5.4 Assessment of agent-based simulation software tools


The authors Castle and Crooks (2006) review eight simulation tools and divide
them into three groups by license type open-source, free, and proprietary
software. The reviewed open-source software includes SWARM, MANSON and
RePast, freeware StarLogo, NetLogo and OBEUS, and proprietary software
AgentSheets and AnyLogic. Castle and Crooks (2006) chose these tools
87

because they are still being updated and developed. The functionality of these
tools is compared the availability of GIS functionality, graphs, and example
models, model source codes and support documentation.
Lauberte (2005) reviews agent-based simulation tools based on their
complexity. The paper examines ten agent-based tools - AgentSheets,
RePast, StarLogo, NetLogo, MadKit, Ascape, AnyLogic, Moduleco, Breve,
SeSAM based on the following criteria:

Users programmers or people without programming knowledge;

Possibility to create applets;

Specific functionality sound, drawing options;

Data input;

Graphical functionality graphs, a grid;

A support system;

User manual (must it be read before using the program);

User interface;

Data import/export functionality;

Examples.

One of the most substantial set of evaluation criteria for agent-based tools
has been developed by Tobias and Hoffmann (2004). They compare only four
agent-based tools, which are based on the Java platform: Repast, Swarm,
Quicksilver, and Vseit. These tools are evaluated on a scale from one to six.
The authors have divided the criteria into three main groups: general,
simulation and experimentation, and simulation possibilities criteria.
The general criteria were:

Licence (is and open-source version available or not?);

Documentation (incomplete or complete);

Support;

User base developers or social scientific communes;

Future vision is still being developed and updated (will be for the
next five / ten years).

Simulation and experimentation criteria:


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Simulation support supports only Java, there is a graphical user


interface, data analysis functionality;

Simulation control only Java, simple or extended control;

Experiment support only Java functionality, an extended parameter


optimization algorithm;

Project organisation support only Java functionality, extended control


and version documentation;

Ease of use hard, programming knowledge is required, or easy;

Communication support communicates only via Java code, the model


can be executed online;

Installation can / cannot be installed, installation errors.

Simulation possibilities criteria:

Number of agents a few or many agents can be simulated;

Agent interaction information and data can / cannot be exchanged;

Agent inheritance is / is not possible;

Agent reproduction is / is not possible, can be generated from data,


a more complex algorithm;

Network creation of an agent network;

Spatial management available / not available;

Dynamic structure changes the structure changes / does not change


during model execution.

Simulation criteria include the user interface, ease of use, software


installation, project organisation possibilities, agent reproduction, agent
number limitations, data import and export functionality, software flexibility,
data analysis functionality, openness of the environment, GIS functionality,
scaling and model visualization options: 2D or 3D. Specific criteria can be
defined as a set of simulation criteria, which are characteristic of each
simulation program.
Software installation is as important as ease of use and the user interface. If
the software cannot be executed even with the help of a manual, it is
doubtful that a researcher will want to find a solution to the problem. Ease of
use will be more important to the researchers that have no programming
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skills, because, at this point, it will become clear whether programming


knowledge is necessary to use the product. The user interface is very
important according to a research paper from Serenko and Detlor (2002)
where 47% of respondents are satisfied with the software if it is easy to use,
easy to master and has a user-friendly interface. Software performance was
important to 32% and functionality to 21% of the respondents.
The most important aspects of software functionality are project organisation
possibilities, agent reproduction and inheritance, agent number limitations, if
there are any, program flexibility, data import /export and graphical
functionality.

To evaluate agent-based simulation tools, the following resources are being


used:

Documentation (technical documentation, user manuals, installation


instructions);

Simulation tools (in the case of proprietary software, demo versions


were used).

A total of 14 agent-based simulation tools were evaluated: StarLogo TNG,


NetLogo, AgentSheets, AnyLogic, Ascape, Cougaar, Repast Symphony, Breve,
JAS, MadKit, A-globe, SeSam, Xholon and OpenStarlogo, but only products
that have been updated within the last three years have been selected for
further analysis. These are AnyLogic, AgentSheets, NetLogo, StarLogo TNG,
MadKit, Ascape, Mason, A-Globe, and Repast Symphony. A-globe could not be
executed and was excluded from the list. Only two of the mentioned tools are
proprietary: AnyLogic and AgentSheets.
The full version or professional licence of AnyLogic 6 costs 12250, the
advanced version - 4800. AgentSheets 3 costs $120 USD.
The following versions of agent-based simulation tools were evaluated:

AnyLogic 6 Professional 6.7.1


AgentSheets 3.0
NetLogo 5.0
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StarLogo TNG 1.5.1


MadKit 4.2.0
Ascape 5.6.1
Repast Symphony 2.0 beta (2010.gads)
Mason 16

Quantitative assessment is based on practical testing each of the tools (see


Table 5.1).
It is revealed that AgentSheets and AnyLogic are proprietary products,
Ascape, MadKit, Mason and Repast Symphony are open-source, NetLogo is
freeware, but Starlogo TNG is shareware because it can only be used free of
charge for educational and research purposes. In all other cases, permission
from the authors or a licence is required.
Reviewing the program documentation lead to the conclusion that Starlogo
TNG documentation has not yet been finished, the MadKit documentation is
incomplete because more visual material could have been included and the
instructions are hard to follow. That is because StarLogo TNG assigned more,
but MadKit less points. The other products have a good user manual that
explains how to create an agent-based model.
Almost every product has more than 15 example models. Ascape received
fewer points because the number of different models was lower.
All evaluated products are easy to install because they use an installation
wizard. Ascape, MadKit and Mason can be executed with a double click (Java
VM must be installed).

Table 5.1: Generic ABM simulation tools assessment table

Program

Repast
Symphony

Mason

NetLogo

Starlogo
TNG

AgentSheets

AnyLogic

Installation

User
interface

Ease of use
Organization
(structural)

Ascape

MadKit

Criterion

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Agent
reproduction
/ inheritance

Number of
agents

Data import /
export
functionality

Flexibility

40

51

28

42

41

30

46

27

Graphical
capabilities
(data analysis
functionality)
Openness of
the
environment
GIS
functionality
Scaling
options
Model
visualization
2D / 3D
Total

Mason has the most unfriendly interface due to an inexistent GUI. MadKit
does not use standard icons and positioning. Even though StarLogo TNG does
not have a standard user interface, it is intuitive and the maximum number of
points can be awarded. The NetLogo interface is sufficient and comfortable,
the only shortcoming being that model elements (buttons, menus, diagrams)
are hidden under one button even though there is enough space on the
interface to show them all. The Ascape interface is satisfactory but an icon
has been chosen incorrectly, therefore, wanting to stop simulation results in
the closing of the program because both icons are similar. It is not prudent to
put the closing button in the middle of the interface. The interfaces of
AgentSheets and AnyLogic are sufficiently comfortable and intuitive therefore
both receive four points.
The ease of use has been assessed by taking into account whether the
software can be used by users without programming skills, or whether little or
good programming knowledge is required. Only two of the evaluated tools
can be used without programming skills StarLogo TNG and AgentSheets.
AnyLogic requires minimal programming knowledge because models are
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created using menus. To create a model in NetLogo, users have to write


model code using the Logo programming language. The same is true for
Repast Symphony. Ascape and MadKit get lower values because good
programming skills are required to create models. Ascape and MadKit model
code has to be written in the Java programming language. Other
programming languages such as Python and C++ are available in MadKit.
Mason also has no graphical user interface and good programming skills are
required to create even a simple model.
AgentSheets, AnyLogic, StarLogo TNG and Repast Symphony offer good
model structuring functionality. AgentSheets and StarLogo TNG models can
be divided into agent blocks. AnyLogic and Repast Symphony feature
standard project structuring. NetLogo features limited model structuring
functionality because only the position of the model interface can be changed;
the model code cannot be visually divided into blocks. Ascape, Mason, and
MadKit do not offer structuring and the model opens in several windows. For
example, the MadKit model window opens separately from the control
buttons. Ascape, Mason, and MadKit has bad structural features assessment.
Each assessed tool except Mason features complex agent reproduction
(probability) and inheritance. Mason allows creating simple population
models. Ascape does not provide the creation of complex agents. The other
programs have no agent number limitations.
AnyLogic has good data import and export functionality. AnyLogic allows
importing models from Vensim and CVS data (model version data). AnyLogic
models can be exported as Java applets for web pages or as independent
Java applications. It also features options to upload models to Forio.com and
RunTheModel.com. Repast Symphony also has good interoperability because
NetLogo models, CVS data, existing projects, XML catalogues can be
imported. Models can be exported as JAR, executable JAR (standalone), as
well as XML files, and model output data can be saved as an Excel worksheet.
Repast Symphony model visualizations can be exported as video files.
NetLogo and AgentSheets have lower assessement because both allow
importing and exporting model data (only from the same program),
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background images for models can be applied and models can be exported as
Java applets for web pages.
Mason has additional tools such as GeoTools and GDAL/OGR, which can
import geospatial data, but no export functionality is available. StarLogo TNG
has no import/export functionality available, although it is possible to upload
a created project. Ascape and MadKit suffer from the same problems.
When evaluating generic ABM simulation tool applications, all products except
Ascape can be assessed the same. Ascape functionality is limited.
More than two types of graphs can be used for data analysis in AnyLogic,
Ascape, Repast Symphony, and NetLogo. AnyLogic allows creating column
diagrams, bar and pie charts, and other graphs. Ascape features a timeline,
column diagrams, and pie charts. NetLogo offers line, bar and point charts.
Repast Symphony allows choosing from column diagrams, line, bar and point
charts. StarLogo TNG only offers bar and line charts. AgentSheets and MadKit
only feature one type of chart. In theory, it is possible to create graphs in
Mason but no examples could be found.
When looking at the openness and interoperability of the environment, only
AnyLogic can be considered really open because model data can be saved
and read from MS Access, Microsoft SQL server and other databases, which
can be accessed using the ODBC driver, as well as text files and Ms Excel.
AgentSheets, Ascape, and StarLogo TNG have closed environments. NetLogo
can export model data into a text file and using Hubnet a simulation can be
run where every member can control a part of the model using an individual
device such as a computer. In theory, MadKit has interaction possibilities with
external environments but these are poorly documented. Generally Repast
Symphony only offers data import and export. In Mason only specific types of
data can be imported.
Only two of the evaluated products have good GIS interchange functionality
AnyLogic and Repast Symphony. AnyLogic allows importing OpenMap GIS
maps, where agents can be placed in a geospatial environment. Based on
Repast Symphony example models, it can be concluded that good GIS
applications can be created using this product even in 3D. GIS example
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models show that only poor GIS applications can be created using NetLogo
and Mason. Mason requires add-ons like GeoMason and GeTools to develop
GIS models (George Mason University, 2008). The NetLogo GIS add-on allows
importing GIS data (points, lines, and polygons) and raster GIS data (grid)
into a model. This NetLogo add-on accepts vector data, which is in the ESRI
shapefile format, and raster data, which is in the ESRI ASCII grid file format
(Wilensky 1999). The other agent-based tools have limited GIS features
creation functionality.
From view of scalability most tools do not offer to set the grid size. Practical
experimentation shows that Mason has the smallest grid. Mason is followed
by Ascape and MadKit. AgentSheets and StarLogo TNG feature a
1920x1200px grid. NetLogo, Repast Symphony, and AnyLogic grids can be
larger than 1920x1200 pixels.
From visualisation view AnyLogic and StarLogo TNG are better because both
offer creating good 2D and 3D models. The NetLogo 2D/3D models are not as
visually appealing and 3D models are still experimental. Repast Symphony
can ensure satisfactory 2D models and also good 3D GIS applications can be
created. MadKit and AgentSheets only offer 2D models. Mason and Ascape
have even poorer visualization capabilities than MadKit and AgentSheets.
The review done above confirms that really only some of generic ABM
simulation tools could be selected for FUPOL Simulator designing: NetLogo,
AnyLogic and Repast Symphony.

When comparing AnyLogic to NetLogo, the model time in NetLogo is discrete,


because actions happen at time ticks (synchronous agents). There are no
events between these ticks. AnyLogic does not feature these time steps
agents can plan events at any time (XJ Technologies AnyLogic 2011).
AnyLogic does not have inbuilt functionality for creating distributed simulation
models, however the open architecture allows it. If multiple simulations with
different parameters have to be run at the same time, these can be executed
on different processors, and simulation data can be saved in one database.
AnyLogic models are pure Java applications (XJ Technologies. Knowledge
95

base 2011). It gets more complex when it is necessary to divide one model
into several components. To ensure synchronization and communication
between parts of the model, technologies such as TCP, RMI, HLA or hardware
specific systems such as IBM OptimalGrid have to be used (XJ Technologies.
Knowledge base, 2011). Educational and University licences can only be
acquired by educational institutions and their use is limited because these
versions can only be used in classrooms. The use for public research events is
prohibited. The standalone version requires the AnyLogic Professional licence
(XJ Technologies AnyLogic. Editions Comparision. Prices, 2012), but a web
page applet can be created in all versions. Only the professional version
features components that provide easy access to databases, tables, and text
files. GIS models can be created in the Educational, University, and
Professional versions of AnyLogic. The software can be installed onto several
computers but only the licensed amount of instances can be open
simultaneously (XJ Technologies. Software License Agreement for AnyLogic
Professional, 2012). To run an applet or application on a computer where
AnyLogic is not installed, an AnyLogic runtime licence is required. Model
applets and applications can be commercially distributed by third parties if the
application is used within an organisation and applications can be given to
third parties if it is necessary for software development. However, the
receivers need an AnyLogic Runtime licence. Written permission from XJ
technologies is required for commercially distributing AnyLogic applets and
applications over the Internet. Some collaboration possibilities with HLA exist,
but simulation becomes slow.

Repast Symphony 2.0 beta was released in March 2010, the 2.0 version
followed on March 5th 2012. Repast Symphony is an open-source tool set
that was initially developed by SWARM (Malleson 2008).
Repast Symphony uses the Eclipse open-source development platform. Like
NetLogo, Repast Symphony uses discrete time and events happen at time
ticks. Models can be created using Logo, Groovy (a dynamic language for
JVM) and Java programming languages. It is possible to create flow charts.
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Repast Symphony allows importing NetLogo models, CVS data, existing


projects, xml catalogues. Projects can be exported as JAR, executable JAR
(standalone), XML files and model output data can be saved as an Excel
worksheet. Visualizations can be exported as video files.
Repast HPC is intended for the creation of distributed models. Repast HPC is
based on the concept and principles of Repast Symphony. It uses C++
instead of Java. Repast HPC models can be created using C++ or Logo style
C++. Mison and Theodoropoulos (Mison and Theodoropoulos 2004) have
researched the problems affecting Repast interaction with HLA.
Repast Symphony also features 2D and 3D GIS models similar to Google
Earth. In this model, data is shown as layers. Mostly GeoTools are used.
Unfortunately in speed tests on large grids Repast Symphony lose a bet with
NetLogo, therefore the question about best solution for FUPOL simulator is
still open.

5.5 Cellular automaton software


5.5.1 Cellular automatons vs. ABM simulation tools
Cellular automatons are discrete models consisting of a regular two or threedimensional grid of cells (Young 2006).
Nigel Gilbert and Klaus G. Troitzsch (Gilbert u.c. 2005) assign the
following characteristics to cellular automatons:

Cellular automatons consist of many identical cells (usually several


thousand) that are arranged in a regular grid;

Each cell has its own state, for example, it is dead or alive;

Time flows in simulation steps and the state of the cell can change in
each step;

The state of the cell after every step is defined in accordance with
mathematical principles;

Cell automatons are best used to simulate local interaction situations


because cell rules check the bonds with neighbouring cells.

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The essential characteristic of cellular automatons is that cells do not move,


they can only change their state from dead to alive, and bonds with
neighbours are fixed (Crooks and Heppenstall 2012). Agents can have a fixed
or alternating position in the environment.
Agent-based models (ABM) consist of two main parts agents and the
environment. An agent is an object (an organism, a person or a social
organisation) the functions of which (including movement as well as the
interaction between the physical and social environment) are programmed as
a set of behavioural rules (Wakeland 2012). Wooldridge and Jenings (1995)
highlight the following characteristics of agents: autonomy, social abilities,
and activity. Agents can function independently and control their actions.
They interact with the environment, as well as with each other, and can
transfer information to one another by communication. Agents can develop
autonomously and are goal oriented, as well as mobile and flexible, meaning
they are able to learn and adapt.
Even though agent-based models are similar to cellular automatons,
there are significant differences. Unlike cellular automatons:
Agents can differ and are able to function based on different sets of
rules;
Agents can communicate with the environment and support proactive
behaviour imitation, meaning that the environment can influence the
behaviour of an agent;
Agents can pass information to other agents;
Agents are mobile, geographically scattered and heterogeneous;
Agent behaviour can be planned synchronously (for example, each
agent performs one action in each step) or asynchronously (agent
actions are planned based on the activities of other agents and / or
time step directions) (Castle and Crooks 2006);
Agents can be added or deleted during the simulation, thereby creating
a dynamic simulation scenario;
Agents can be created using touch type programming;
Agent-based simulations have a lower level of abstraction;
98

Models that are more complex can be created using agent-based


simulation. These can include such human characteristics as emotions
or personality (temperament type);
Agents can have several attributes. Cellular automatons can have only
one (for example, it can be busy of free) (Crooks un Heppenstall
2012).
Cellular automatons and agent-based simulation can be used to simulate
complex systems with a similar display of individual levels. However, cellular
automatons differ from agent-based models because cellular automaton
models display social dynamics with the focus on local interaction while
agent-based models simulate situations that are more complex and agents
control their behaviour based on their knowledge about the environment
(Crooks and Heppenstall 2012).
With regard to urban simulation, cellular automatons are usually used to
display changes in land use, but agent-based models are utilized to simulate
crowd dynamics and flow (Crooks and Heppenstall 2012). More and more
developers use both methods to create a flexible and powerful model (Crooks
and Heppenstall 2012).
Cellular automatons can be simulated using agent-based simulation. The
opposite, however, will be difficult or impossible. In most cases, agent-based
models are the most suitable method for real-world systems because it is
much simpler, in comparison with other methods, to simulate people and
objects.

5.5.2 Cellular automaton generic software tools


Based on the previously established criteria, the review will include 13 cell
automaton software tools DUEM, Golly, Mcell, Winlife32, Cellab, CASim,
FCAS, JCASIM, Life32, Cage, CADemo, Rabbit and Five Cellular Automata.

99

DUEM (DUEM 2007, Batty 2012) is the only tool out of the mentioned
products that supports GIS applications. It is the mix between generic and
specialised simulation tools. The aim of this tool is to simulate urban
environment changes to evaluate development. This is ensured by using five
types of terrain residential, industrial, commercial, streets and unused land.
DEUM is based on Visual C++ and was developed from 1999 to 2003. The
maximum dimensions of 2D cell automatons are 3000 by 3000 cells. The user
manual is poor because only one presentation document and help file is
available and it offers only scarce information. The tool can import binary
raster files (.FLT), ASCII raster files (.ASC), ARC/INFO GRID export files
(.E00), as well as DAT and XYA files. BMP, GIF and TIFF image formats can
be imported. The user interface is simple with standard menus and icons.
Next to the simulation window are four types of terrain utilization graphs that
are useful when creating urban terrain usage GIS type simulations, which is
the main purpose of this tool.

The latest version of cell automaton tool Golly (Golly 2012) was released in
2011. In comparison to DUEM, this tool has a comprehensive user manual
because it includes command syntax explanations and examples. This tool
allows creating cell automatons in the 1D format, the dimensions of which
can be up to 2 billion x 2 billion cells. The tool can open RLE, Life, dblife and
Mcell files, as well as BMP, PNG, GIF and TIFF image formats. This tool
includes various cell automatons: John Von Neumanns 29 state cell
automaton, the Wolfram 1D rule set, Langtons loops etc. Golly is also
available on MAC OS X and Linux. Models can be created using Python and
Perl. The user interface is average because it does no feature a standard
layout.

The latest version of Mcell (Wojtowicz 2005) was released in 2001. This tool
allows creating 1D and 2D cell automatons with a maximum cell grid size of
100 000 by 2500. As Golly, this tool supports RLE, dbfile, Life and also
ProLife, Xlife, MCLife files. The tool was created using Borland Delphi 5.0 and
100

programmers can add new rule sets in DLL format as it supports most 32-bit
compilers. Documentation is good because it includes examples on how to
create a custom rule set. The latest version supports 14 different types of cell
automatons. The user interface has a standard layout and is customizable.

The latest version of Winlife32 (Winlife32 2012) was released in 2010. The
documentation for this tool is poor because it does not include any visual
material. The tool allows running two-dimensional cell automatons similar to
John Conways Game of life and creating new rule sets. It supports Xlife,
RLE and PLF files. The user interface is poorly designed and inexpressive. The
tool was created using C++.

Cellab (Rucker and Walker 2012) was developed from 1989 to 1997. It allows
constructing 1D, 2D and even 3D cell automatons but the cell grid size is only
320x200. The documentation is good because it describes the functionality of
the product in detail. Unlike other tools, the user can import MIDI format
audio files and cell automaton simulations can be recorded as AVI files.
Images from AutoCAD and AutoSketch can be imported. It is possible to
create custom rule sets using JAVA, C, BASIC or Pascal. The Cellab user
interface is poor because all functionality is hidden in the menus. It is possible
to create histograms.

CASim (Biblo 2011, Bardiovsky 2012), FCAS, JCASIM (JCASIM 2009) and
CADemo are Java based applications and work on every operating system.
CASim was developed between 2007 and 2011, FCAS was created in 2010,
but JCASIM and CADemo in 2001. Out of these tools, only CADemo has good
documentation. User manuals for the other tools are non-existent. CASim
supports 1D and 2D cell automatons, FCAS only 1D and JCASIM 1D, 2D and
even 3D automatons. None of the tools show their maximum grid size and
their functionality is severely limited. Out of these tools, FCAS has the best
user interface.
101

Life32 (Bontes 2012) is no longer being supported and cannot be


downloaded. Life32 is intended for replaying the Convoys Game of life
(Gardner 1970) and other cell automatons. The maximum cell grid size is 1
million x 1 million cells. The tool supports Xlife, Life, ProLife, Mcell, dblife and
the BMP and GIF image formats. The user interface is simple but more
functional than the one offered by CASIM.

CAGE (CAGE 2012) was developed from 2003 to 2006. It supports 1D and 2D
cell automatons. It was created using Python and includes cell automatons
such as Convoy`s Game of life, Langton`s self-reproducing automaton etc.
The documentation is poor.

The most recent cellular automaton tool is Rabbit (Morphocode 2010). It is


still in development. It supports 1D, 2D and 3D cell automatons. Rabbit is a
library for Grasshopper, which is based on the Rhino engine. The library and
Grasshopper are available free but Rhino is a commercial product. The
available documentation is good because it includes some examples on how
to create models and there are books available about Grasshopper. The tool
has a visually appealing user interface and its functions are grouped by
relevance.

All mentioned cell automaton tools are available free for non-commercial
purposes. Golly, CASim and CADemo are open-source tools. All tools are
intended for the creation of simple models where the cellular automaton tool
is run on a single computer. All tools support Windows. Most of these tools
are no longer being supported. Most feature poor documentation, which
inhibits usability. The GUI interfaces of all tools except DUEM and FCAS does
not meet modern requirements.

It can be concluded that, for example, GIS applications, which are simulated
using cellular automatons, are created rather using cellular automaton
principles than available cellular automaton generic software.
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5.6 Micro analytical simulation software


Microsimulation (System Dynamics 2007) or micro analytical simulation is a
research area in applied econometrics. It tries to simulate the behaviour of
individuals over time. It can either be dynamic or static. If it is dynamic the
behaviour of people changes over time, whereas in the static case a constant
behaviour is assumed. Some other definitions of the microsimulation would
be used, for example, Microsimulation (Microsimulation models 2007) models
are computer models that operate at the level of the individual behavioural
entity, such as a person, family, or firm. Such models simulate large
representative populations of these low-level entities in order to draw
conclusions that apply to higher levels of aggregation such as an entire
country.
Microsimulation (What is microsimulation? 2007) would be considered a
modelling technique that operates at the level of individual units such as
persons, households, vehicles or firms. Each unit is represented by a record
containing a unique identifier and a set of associated attributes (list of
persons with known age, sex, marital and employment status). A set of rules
(transition probabilities) are then applied to these units leading to simulated
changes in state and behaviour. These rules may be deterministic or
stochastic. The result is an estimate of the outcomes of applying these rules.
Microsimulation model is a simulation model that describes the behaviour of
individual micro units and permits analysis of the impacts of the environment
(Lundgren 2007).
For Microanalytical simulation models (MSM) is inherent:

Two levels of modelling Individual and Aggregate;


Objects or entities Microunits with Associated attributes;
Attributes determine the state of the microunit;
Set of rules (transition probabilities) Deterministic or Stochastic;
Next state of the microunit is determined by rules, Previous state and
Probability.

Microanalytical simulation mostly is used for modelling:


103

The impacts on social equity of fiscal and demographic changes;


The distribution of traffic flows over a street network.

There are many software tools for microanalytical simulation, for example,
EUROMOD, Pensim2, MICSIM, VISSIM, LISA+, UMDBS, TRANSYT, STINMOD
and DYNAMOD, CORSIM etc.

VisSim (http://www.vissim.com/products/overview.html) would be used for


general modelling, simulation and control system design applications. VisSim
is an award winning graphical block diagram language for modelling and
simulating complex dynamic systems. VisSim's visual interface offers a simple
method for constructing and simulating large-scale complex dynamic systems;
its math engine provides fast, accurate solutions for linear, nonlinear,
continuous time, discrete time, time varying and hybrid system designs. With
VisSim, is possible quick development of virtual prototypes of any dynamic
system. Models are built by simply sliding blocks into the work area and
wiring them together with the mouse. Each block of the diagram performs a
function. Blocks can be designed in C, Fortran or Pascal and added to the
VisSim block library. VisSim runs on Windows based machines including NT,
XP, Vista (32-bit and 64-bit), and Windows 7 (32-bit and 64-bit). Users have
reported success running VisSim on Linux and Intel-based Apple Macs using a
Windows Emulator called WINE. VisSim is a commercial product.

LISA+

(http://www.schlothauer.de/en/LISA.html)

is

traffic

engineering

software for the planning and management of signalized intersections. LISA+


supports the traffic engineer to plan and evaluate signalized intersections,
uncontrolled intersections and green waves. The microscopic simulation
enables the traffic engineer to develop signal control plans and to test them
with real flow values from traffic counts. The calculation algorithms for
tailback and wait times conform to the German HBS 2001, a traffic
engineering manual comparable to the American Highway Capacity Manual
(HCM). LISA+ was developed using Schlothauer & Wauer's long-standing
104

expertise in software development combined with their experience in


numerous, diverse traffic-planning projects. LISA+ is a product made by
traffic engineers for traffic engineers. Municipal authorities, engineering firms,
signal manufacturers and universities around the world rely on LISA+. The
simulation of traffic-actuated controls is one the main features of LISA+. The
following possibilities are ensured:

Simulation of single-intersection and coordinated controls;


Simulation of networks, including adaptive networks;
VISSIM interface.

EUROMOD
(https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/euromod)
is
a
tax-benefit
microsimulation model for the European Union (EU) that enables researchers
and policy analysts to calculate, in a comparable manner, the effects of taxes
and benefits on household incomes and work incentives for the population of
each country and for the EU as a whole. As well as calculating the effects of
actual policies it is also used to evaluate the effects of tax-benefit policy
reforms and other changes on poverty, inequality, incentives and government
budgets. EUROMOD is a unique resource for cross-national research,
designed to produce results that are comparable across countries and
meaningful when aggregated to the EU level. EUROMOD can be used to
address a wide range of research and policy-related questions.
EUROMOD can be used in many different ways in different contexts:

Estimation of poverty, inequality and redistribution statistics under


actual conditions, previous or future tax-benefit rules;
Budgetary effects;
Effects of simple tax-benefit policy reforms (or illustrative changes to
household composition and original income);
Model family calculations;
Indicators of work incentives;
Complex policy reforms (e.g. effects of revenue-neutral changes to tax
rates and social insurance regulations);
Policy swapping between countries (i.e. effects on country A of
adopting a policy measure currently effective in country B);
Generation of budget sets as input to labour supply or other models of
behaviour change;
Generation of counterfactual income to answer what if questions;
Assessing effects and costs of EU-wide policy reforms.

The current public release version of EUROMOD covers 18 countries: Belgium,


Czech Republic, Cyprus, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, Hungary, Italy,
Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia,
105

Sweden and the UK. EUROMOD is free for academic and non-profit use. The
main conditions relate to permissions to access the input micro-data.

5.7 Multi level simulation tools


Multilevel simulation models are models with model parameters arranged in a
hierarchical structure (the results of previous step is the source for current
step) and observing dependent objects, mostly for analysing group effects
(see Figure 5.1) and inference to a population of groups mostly in education
and psychology.

Figure 5.1: The factor impact in multilevel simulation

Many tools would be mentioned for multilevel simulation:

HLM - Hierarchical Linear and Nonlinear Modelling


(http://www.ssicentral.com/hlm/index.html#overview);
MIMOSE Micro and Multilevel Modelling and Simulation Environment
(http://www.uni-koblenz.de/~sozinf/projekte/mimose);
MLwiN - Software package for fitting multilevel models (Centre for
Multilevel Modelling, University of Bristol)
(http://www.cmm.bristol.ac.uk/MLwiN/index.shtml);
aML (applied Maximum Likelihood) Statistical software for
estimating multilevel, multiprocess models (http://www.appliedml.com/product/index.html) (free of charge).

The modelling and simulation system MIMOSE (http://userpages.unikoblenz.de/~moeh/projekte/mimose.html) consists of a model description
language and an experimental frame for the simulation of models. The main
purpose of the MIMOSE project was the development of a modelling language
which considers special demands of modelling in social science, especially the
106

description of nonlinear, quantitative and qualitative relations, stochastic


influences, birth and death processes, as well as micro and multilevel models.
At the same time, describing models in MIMOSE should not burden the
modeller with a lot of programming and implementation details.
Furthermore, the language concept support the development of structured,
homogeneous simulation models, which improves the transparency of the
model designing and makes model descriptions and even the corresponding
simulation results easier to understand. To reach these goals the modelling
concept of MIMOSE is based on ideas from general systems theory and the
language structure is influenced by paradigms of functional programming
languages. MIMOSE provides a powerful modelling language combined with a
user friendly experimental frame for simulating and analysing models.
Therefore, this approach can be seen as one step towards the development of
more general modelling and simulation tools in social science. Furthermore,
the modelling approach is tested on different simulation models, which are
concerned with problems of the social science research (i.e. collective
phenomena (i.e. migration), chaotic behaviour, cooperation, the sequence of
military

interventions

and

democratization

in

Thailand),

but

also

environmental models and epidemic models in biology.


The MIMOSE as a client/server version is available on Sun/Solaris and Linux
servers, whereas the Java based client component is running on Windows NT,
Solaris, and Linux systems.

5.8 Learning and evolutionary models simulation


Learning would be described as any change in a system that allows it to
perform better the second time on repetition of the same task or on another
task drawn from the same population (Marks 2007).
Several kids of models ensure modelling of learning process:

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) - from machine learning, from


biological simplifications of the brains operation;

107

Evolutionary models, such as Genetic Algorithms (GAs) and Genetic


Programming (GP) - from natural evolution;
Reinforcement Learning (RL) - from psychology experiments.

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is an interconnected group of artificial


neurons that uses a mathematical model or computational model for
information processing based on a connectionist approach to computation. In
most cases an ANN (Artificial Neural Network 2007) is an adaptive system
that changes its structure based on external or internal information that flows
through the network and can be used for modelling non-linear systems (see
Figure 5.2).

Figure 5.2: ANN functioning

Artificial Neural Networks are used in/to:

Artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology/cognitive science,


neuroscience and philosophy of mind;
Recognise handwritten digits;
Recognise human speech;
Select good credit risks for bank loans;
Track stock-market trends;
Recognise objects in video images;
Explore the development of a shared lexicon (language).

108

Many software tools are used to simulate, to research, to develop and to


apply ANNs, biological neural networks and in some cases a wider array of
adaptive systems:

Research simulators - Stuttgart Neural Network Simulator (SNNS),


PDP++, JavaNNS, XNBC and the BNN Toolbox for MATLAB etc.;
Data analysis simulators - Alyuda NeuroIntelligence, BrainMaker,
EasyNN-plus, MATLAB Neural Network Toolbox, NeuralTools, Netlab,
Palisade etc.;
Component based development environments - JOONE, Peltarion
Synapse and NeuroDimension, NeuroSolutions.

A genetic algorithm (GA) (Genetic algorithm 2007) is a search technique used


in computing to find true or approximate solutions into optimization and
problems research.
Genetic algorithms are implemented as a computer simulation in which a
population of abstract representations (called chromosomes or the genotype
or the genome) of candidates (called individuals, creatures, or phenotypes)
evolves toward better solutions of an optimization.
The evolution usually starts from a population of randomly generated
individuals and happens in generations. In each generation, the fitness of
every individual in the population is evaluated. Multiple individuals are
stochastically selected from the current population (based on their fitness),
and modified (recombined and possibly mutated) to form a new population.
The new population is then used in the next iteration of the algorithm. The
algorithm terminates when either a maximum number of generations has
been produced, or a satisfactory fitness level has been reached for the
population.
Mostly genetic algorithms are realised as a specific projects there are few of
generic

simulation

software

packages.

As

one

of

examples

JGAP

(http://jgap.sourceforge.net) would be mentioned. JGAP (pronounced "jaygap") is a Genetic Algorithms and Genetic Programming component provided
as a Java framework. It provides basic genetic mechanisms that can be easily
used to apply evolutionary principles to problem solutions. There are exists
some demonstration examples. JGAP was designed to be very easy to use
"out of the box", while also designed to be highly modular so that more
109

adventurous users can easily plug-in custom genetic operators and other subcomponents. JGAP is well verified and has extensive Javadocs, and quite a
lot of examples. JGAP is free software and it is possible to redistribute it
and/or modify it under the terms of the GNU Lesser Public License as
published by the Free Software Foundation. Mozilla Public License (MPL) can
be used for JGAP in commercial applications without the need of publishing
your source code or make it reverse engineerable (as is required with the
GNU License). MPL use is allowed for 50 Euros donation.
Reinforcement learning (Sutton and Barto 2007) is learning what to do to
maximize a numerical reward signal. The learner is not told which actions to
take, but instead must discover which actions yield the most reward by trying
them. Actions may affect not only the immediate reward but also the next
situation and/or all subsequent rewards. These two characteristics trial-anderror search and delayed reward are the two most important distinguishing
features of reinforcement learning.
Universal and generic software for reinforcement learning practically does not
exist, because learning mostly is oriented to predefined domain. Therefore
reinforcement learning methods are realised in different programming
languages as in Python (QLearning and SARSA, NN, kNN-TD and Exa), in
Matlab (QLearning and SARSA). More information about approach and
software applied see http://rlai.cs.ualberta.ca/RLAI/rlai.html.

5.9 Conclusions: Generic simulation software tools used


for FUPOL simulator designing
In conformity with part 3 and 4 prerequisites, generic simulation software
tools were reviewed. More than 32 generic simulation software tools were
assessed, and more detailed attention was paid to the software the use of
which is more probable in the FUPOL project. The review assessed 3 systems
dynamic simulation (SD) tools (Stella, Vensim, Powersim), 3 discrete-event
(DEVS) simulation packages (ExtendSim, Arena, Simul8), 8 agent-based
110

(ABM)

software

packages

(AgentSheets,

AntLogic,

Ascape,

NetLogo,

StarLogo, MadKit, RePast Symphony, Mason), 13 cellular automatons (CA)


(DUEM, Golly, Mcell, WinLife32, Cellab, CASim, FCAS, JCASIM, Life32, Cage,
CADemo, Rabbit, Five CA), 3 micro analytic solutions (VisSim, LISA+,
EUROMOD) and 2 tools belonged to multi level simulation and learning, and
evolutionary simulation directions (MIMOSE, JGAP). It must be mentioned
that micro analytical simulation tools cannot be considered as generic, since
these mostly have a predefined problem orientation.
Different policy domain conditions and relatively wide dispersion of
beneficiaries expectations complicate the selection of suitable simulation
tools, because potential errors would leave affect the quality of the FUPOL
Simulator operation.
The most important factors are sustainability and spreading of generic tools
to ensure possibilities of maintenance and checking of versatility of
applications (for example, GIS use). An important factor is the possibility for
typical GUI designing and collaboration with other simulation platforms and
tools. This determines the requirement for a relatively high level of
interoperability (for example, connection to databases). Especially important
are possibilities of programming in well known languages, for example, Java.
Policy domains also determine the set of non-functional requirements, for
example, agents scalability and performance. Although the use of virtual
machines partially solves restrictions of operating systems, this reduces
simulation performance, which sometimes can be critical. Therefore, it is
advisable to operate generic simulation software in both Windows and Linux
environments. Network operation features are relevant, especially in the
Internet environment ensuring web services and a client-server approach. It
is recommended that the generic tool is free of charge. Of course, it is
possible to purchase commercial tools, but it would not be a good practice if
adding new users requires additional expenditures.
It is predictable that the wide policy domains set will not be coverable with
ABM use, ensuring discrete-event systems simulation only, but in higher levels
111

of abstraction dynamic simulation tools will be used ensuring forecasting in


continuous time.
Present analysis and Chapter 4 and 5 prerequisites determine RePast
Symphony selection as a basic tool for FUPOL Simulator designing, but
systems dynamics simulation on the macro level could be done with Stella or
Powersim if during the next months the search for a suitable open-source
system dynamics simulation tool with satisfactory quality will not be
successful.

6 Domain Oriented Simulation Software Packages


In conformity with D2.1 the Urban policy domains, which could be modelled
under the framework of the FUPOL project, are defined. These are Urban
Planning, Land Use, Environment, Economy, Housing, Community Facilities,
Transport and Movement, Urban Segregation, Migration, Demography, Social
Affairs (incl. employment), City Treasury and Tourism. The same conclusions
derived from D2.1 requirements validation, which was done in 3.2 Policy
domains requirements validation analysing FUPOL pilot partners answers to
the questionnaire. If WP2 is aimed at analysis of policy model specifications
then current chapters are aimed at reviewing specific software package
features. It is understandable that completely universal tools for the
simulation of all domains do not exist, because the described models are
different (discrete, continuing, determined, stochastic etc.). However the
basis for other policy domains modelling and simulation is LUCC analysis and
forecasting, therefore initially a more detailed land use simulation package
analysis will be done.

6.1 Land-use modelling software packages analysis


Lemp et.al (2008) were agree that modelling processes can help planners and
policymakers forecast future development patterns, in order to prepare for
112

and best avoidpotential system challenges. Such challenges may be


addressed through transportation investment decisions and regulatory tools.
Land-use models are premised on data and trends, rather than regional goals.
The modelling process seeks to forecast future land-use changes based on
behavioural

and

theoretical

foundations,

feedbacks,

and

rigorous

mathematics. Land-use models can be made sensitive to various policy


changes, as long as these are permitted by the specification. This allows for
the development of different scenarios based on policy changes, including
major investments. By identifying and evaluating the impacts of these
predicted land development patterns, planners and policymakers can better
anticipate challenges, and prepare accordingly (Lemp et al 2008).
But the most important drawbacks according to their work are connected with
the necessary data, lack of strategically vision within the model outputs and
the impact of statistical methods themselves:

The amount of data and the understanding of econometric and GIS


techniques required to build the model are substantial. Parcel-based
land-use data may be required, including identical data for at least two
points in time in order to calibrate the models. Typically not all
jurisdictions in a region will have such data available, and it may be
organized in a variety of designs, formats, and time periods;

Land use models provide little guidance for communities seeking to


establish visions, goals, or guiding principles. They seek to predict the
most likely future scenario, given past trends and market forces;

The

models

that

rely

on

random

utility

maximization

and

microsimulations involve random draws from certain distributions.


Therefore, the results of the modelling process at disaggregate levels
may vary from run to run. However, it is generally believed that
behaviourally based land use models should generate reasonably
stable predictions from different runs at relatively aggregate spatial
units (Lemp et al 2008).
113

In short, the diversity of real world situations casts doubt on whether a


general theory of land use change will be able to provide, besides broad
explanatory driving factors, patterns and processes of change, those details
which may be critical in explaining land use change in particular contexts and
circumstances (Briassoulis 2003).
The history of land use modelling is relatively long and many different
models, frameworks and platforms for model creation and analysis have been
created. Many different software packages exist that create and environment
to run the models.
Despite the difficulty of modeling every relevant aspect of an urban region,
researchers have produced a rich variety of models dealing with interrelated
processes of urban change (Iacano et al 2008). Authors offer different
classifications and groups of these models as well.
Briassoulis (2003) has gathered many interrelated sources of variation.
Hence, according to him, there exist:

descriptive, explanatory, prescriptive, predictive and impact


assessment models;
micro-economic and macro-economic theoretic models, gravity or
spatial interaction theory-based models, integrated models as well as
a-theoretic models;
local, regional, interregional, national and global level models;
geo-referenced (fully spatially explicit) and non-geo-referenced
(incompletely spatially explicit) models;
urban (mostly residential), agricultural (crop), forest sector models;
deforestation, urbanization, etc. models;
static, quasi-static (or, quasi-dynamic) and dynamic models (however
counterintuitive static models of change may sound)
statistical, programming, gravity-type, simulation and integrated
models (Briassoulis 2003).

Timmermans (2003) summarizes three generations of land use models. The


models in the first generation are based on aggregate data and principles of
gravitation and entropy-maximization. Second generation models are based
on the principle of utility-maximization. More recently, models have been
developed based on micro-data and activity-travel patterns (Cioffi-Revilla and
114

Gotts 2003). Similar chronological division was done by Iacano et al (2008),


who emphasized moving step by step to agent-based LUCC simulation
models.
More

specifically

spatial

interaction,

spatial

input-output,

and

linear

programming models were used in the early operational urban models of the
1960s and 1970s. Although developed in the 1960s, micro-simulation was
not applied to urban modeling until the 1980s. The 1980s saw discrete
choice models and cellular automata becoming the newest modeling
approaches. In the 1990s, several land use models implemented a rule-based
set of procedures to allocate population, employment, and/or land use on the
GIS platform (Fang and Soon 2006), as well as agent-based modeling
principles.
For similar time and model type classification approach see also Fang and
Soon (2006) and Ravulaparthy and Goulias (2011) reviews.
The same time driven evolution relates to computational abilities, software
products (simulation tools, spatial analysis tools), public engagement
traditions, information society, possibilities of data collection and storage, etc.
The Annex 1 contains a list of reviewed land-use modelling packages
considered and a brief description of them. The list cannot be considered
exhaustive, but includes the majority of popular models. There are also
several local/case-based models that are not included in the list.
For further analysis 6 software packages were chosen. This choice was made
based upon the 4.4 chapter requirements. The aim of this section is to look in
detail at packages of several types, tools that are used nowadays and
packages that are freeware vs. the commercial products.
Each subsection will be devoted to one package and will include short general
overview and software packages features description.
Summary tables are given in Annex 2.
115

6.1.1 UrbanSim
Developed by the Urban Planning Department and the Computer Science
Department at the University of Washington, UrbanSim is a simulation
software package for integrated planning and analysis of urban development,
incorporating the interactions between land use, transportation, and public
policy. It is intended for use by metropolitan planning organizations and other
planning organizations to interface existing travel models with new land use
forecasting and analysis capabilities (Fang and Soon 2006).
Originally designed by Paul Waddell at Urban Analytics, Inc. for an integrated
modeling project in Honolulu, the system has been re-engineered and refined
continuously over the past decade and since 2009 by Paul Waddell and
collaborators at the University of California, Berkeley. Recognizing that land
use, transportation and environmental (air, water) planning are carried out by
different institutions and that the domain is very diverse in terms of
stakeholder values and institutional mandates, UrbanSim was designed to be
an experimental laboratory for analysis of policies, and to allow those policies
to be disaggregated to reflect the local distribution of policy mandates.
Priority was given in the design to the intended use as a scenario evaluation
system, with substantial flexibility to express different policy inputs (Waddell
2011).
UrbanSim use cases:

The Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (SEMCOG) produces


land use and transportation forecasts for 7 counties in southeast
Michigan, which includes the City of Detroit. They used the gridcell
version of UrbanSim to produce their 2035 Regional Development
Forecast (http://www.urbansim.org/Community/DetroitMichigan);

The Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) produces land use


and transportation forecasts for the Phoenix metropolitan area, which
includes Maricopa County. MAG membership includes 25 cities and
towns, 3 Native American communities, Maricopa County, and the
116

Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT). They are testing the


parcel

based

version

of

UrbanSim

(http://www.urbansim.org/Community/PhoenixArizona);

UrbanSim also was used to model the city of San Francisco. They are
working on integrating UrbanSim with SFCTA's activity-based travel
model,

and

have

had

successful

prototype-runs

(http://www.urbansim.org/Community/SanFranciscoCalifornia);

The land use model UrbanSim was used in the canton of Zurich, as one
of three case studies of the SustainCity project. SustainCity aims at
advancing the modelling of interactions between land use and
transport and adapting the software UrbanSim to the European
context. The result will be UrbanSimE, a tool intended to be used by
European governmental institutions and planning agencies. The paper
documents the data acquisition, processing and definitions of the
Zurich case study and the technical approach to create a base year for
running a first run of UrbanSimE, i.e., a very basic initial
operationalisation
(http://www.sustaincity.org/publications/SC_The_Zurich_Case_Study.p
df).

In short, UrbanSim is a discrete choice model based on the random utility


theory (Ravulaparthy and Goulias 2011). The structural model of UrbanSim
software package is shown in Figure 6.1.

117

Figure 6.1: The structural model of UrbanSim (Linke 2008)

Currently, UrbanSim can be implemented at three different spatial units of


analysis: zone, parcel and grid cells.
Input data required to run UrbanSim are listed below:

Parcel data in ArcView shape file. The attribute table should have
information on lot size, land use, housing units, square footage of
building space, year built, zoning, land use plan, assessed land value,
and assessed improvement value;
Business establishments, which should be geocoded;
Household data from the census STF3A;
Environmentally sensitive areas such as wetlands, floodplains, high
slopes, fault zones;
Urban Growth Boundaries or other policy boundaries;
TAZ layer as an ArcView shape file;
Travel impedance from travel models (peak times and logsums) (Fang
and Soon 2006).

Output information includes (Waddell and Wang et al 2008):


118

Households by income, age, size, and presence of children;


Businesses and employment by industry;
Acreage by land use;
Dwelling units by type;
Square feet of non-residential space by type;
Land values per acre by land use;
Improvement values per unit or square feet by land use (Linke 2008).

UrbanSim has gone through many generations since it was initially designed
in the mid-1990s. It was implemented initially in Java, and is now
implemented in Python, in order to improve the accessibility of the code to
modelers and end- users, and to take advantage of fast computational
libraries in C and C++, which Python can use.
Over time, monitoring the more common adaptations of models has allowed
re-engineering the software to support modular construction of models that
can be intuitively used by modelers who are not software engineers. The aim
is to make the system widely useful by a base of users who probably are not
skilled software developers. The system makes extensive use of the Python
numeric

library

Numpy,

which

provides

very

efficient

computational

processing for the model system (Waddell 2011).


The developers have adopted an open-source licensing for the UrbanSim
software platform, which is referred to as the OPUS. UrbanSim has been
made available as free, open-source software over the web, continuously
since 1998 (Waddell 2011).
The GUI is organized into tabs, corresponding to general configuration
elements, data tools and data browser, models for creating, specifying and
estimating models, scenarios for creating policy scenarios and running
simulations on them and results for generating indicators from results and
visualizing them as tables, maps and animations. Data and results can also be
exported to SQL databases such as MySQL, Postgres and MS SQL Server and
to ESRI database formats and to post-GIS (Waddell 2011).
Calibration of the simulation software requires statistical knowledge to
119

perform multiple regression and logit model estimation using external


econometric software such as Alogit or Limdep. Further work on calibration
tools may make the use of external software unnecessary in the future. Use
of the model requires land-use and transportation planning expertise and
general computer experience. The user interface for the model is intended for
relatively non- technical users (Environmental Protection Agency 2000).
UrbanSim software package does not involve one single model, but actually
this is urban simulation system, consisting of several different modules. All
models and input datasets are combined in the data store that represents
each household as an individual object, with relevant modeling characteristics
(household income, size, children, and number of workers) (Linke 2008).
For the actual operation of the model, a created baseline scenario contains
assumptions against which other scenarios will then be compared (Waddell
and Ulfarsson 2004). The data export process gathers, aggregates and
exports data from the data store to external files for subsequent analysis and
graphical display. The user can choose different output files and specific
simulation years. Outputs are then created at the grid cell level, and
summarized by traffic zone and for the region as a whole. The output data is
written in a standard format and possible to use by common GIS tools (Linke
2008).
UrbanSim is calibrated with data from three time periods. The simulation runs
from the first period to the second, and simulated results are compared with
the existing real data. Also the validation uses separate data that was not
used yet for calibration. Thus, data is needed from one time period to serve
as initial condition, from a later period to serve as a comparison with model
projections and from a third time period for the model validation (Waddell
and Ulfarsson 2004).
More details about different functions used in modeling process see in
Waddell and Ulfarsson 2004, as well as in the documentation of the UrbanSim
120

model available at www.urbansim.org.


6.1.2 Metronamica
Metronamica was developed in 1992 by the Research Institute for Knowledge
Systems (RIKS) (http://www.riks.nl) in collaboration with Roger White from
Memorial University in St. Johns, Canada (Linke 2008).
Metronamica is a modeling framework supporting the development and
application of spatially-dynamic land use models enabling the exploration of
spatial developments in cities, regions or countries caused by autonomous
developments, external factors, and policy measures using structured what-if
analysis (Van Delden and Engelen 2006). Metronamica allows the planner to
interactively enter policy and planning measures as well as trend lines for
external pressures and scenarios (RIKS 2012).
Metronamica use cases:

The Metronamica was used to model future development of urban land


uses in the area around Copenhagen covered by the
2007

Fingerplan

for the next few decades under different policy scenarious

(http://curis.ku.dk/ws/files/33929370/LUM_Fingerplan_report_samlet_
web.pdf);

The Metronamica was used for finding suitable locations for the
expansion of residential and business activities in Utrecht Province, the
Netherlands. It takes

into consideration

future

economic and

demographic developments as well as all other land use claims in the


province
(http://www.iemss.org/iemss2006/papers/s10/321_vanDelden_0.pdf);

The Metronamica has been used in various projects at European level.


For example for EEA PRELUDE, it was used as a asupport to policymaking, to explore the impacts of scenarios on land use in Europe
(http://www.google.lv/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=metronamica+used+in+proj
ect&source=web&cd=33&cad=rja&ved=0CCgQFjACOB4&url=http%3A
121

%2F%2Fwww.icpdr.org%2Fmain%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2FEGNewsletter2.pdf&ei=JKNAUOekBari4QTF64DQAw&usg=AFQjCNE3hc9ApYzNxORF
emYHQI6clgJ02Q);

Also Metronamica was used for developing a Cellular Automata Land


Use

Model

for

Jeddah

City,

Kingdom

of

Saudi

Arabia

(http://geomaticsksa.com/GTC2011/S4/PDF/2.pdf).

Metronamica can support policy making in two different ways:

An exploration of a set of distinct futures is used to envision plausible


future pathways and account for critical uncertainties;
Impact assessment of policy alternatives are compared to a baseline or
business as usual scenario (RIKS 2012).

The main feature is its software modularity, meaning that the Metronamica
package is comprised of several independent blocks. It does not seek to find
one best solution for only the economic, ecological or social dimensions. The
model rather tries to maximize the whole by requiring input datasets from all
three dimensions. The benefit of this approach is the strong integrative and
interactive nature of the resulting system, in which highly dynamic,
autonomous processes play a key role (Linke 2008).
Metronamica software package employs the basic principles of cellular
automata modeling but more greatly relies on a series of innovative methods.
Three

key

characteristics

distinguish

the

Metronamica

model

from

conventional cellular automata models: distance decay functions, integration


with GIS, and constrained cell transition (Kim and Batty 2011).
Allocation takes place on the local level, based on a constrained cellular
automaton. The entire area modeled is represented by a mosaic of raster
cells, each cell having one known state. All cells are simultaneously evaluated
and updated according to their internal states and values of their neighbor
cells. A set of rules, called transition rules, determines whether or not a cell
changes when it is evaluated. It depends on the quality of its neighborhood
122

that consists of a defined radius of up to 8 cells and also includes the cell
itself (thus a maximum of 196 cells) (Van Delden et al 2005). The strength of
the attraction and repulsion is defined by a function of distance for every
occurring land use. It means that each cell within the neighborhood is
weighted differently depending on its state and distance from the reference
cell. Cells will finally always change to that land use function, for which they
have the highest transition potential, until regional demands are satisfied
(Linke 2008).
Basically three types of input data are required depending on the
configuration of Metronamica:

GIS data for the land use model (Metronamica supports two GIS
compatible raster formats: ArcInfo ASCII grid format (CORINE data
base), or Idrisi byte binary image format. All maps must be strictly
comparable: they mustbe of identical size (i.e. cover the same area),
resolution, and origin (i.e. they must be registered). Maps should be
available for 2 dates: Base year1 and Base year2);

Census and other statistical data for the regional model (population,
employment);

Additional data for the transport model (transport zone maps, transport
network maps including all network available: roads, urban train,
maritime and aqueducts networks etc, transport network changes
maps, number of trip origins and trip destinations per activity per
urbanisation class, initial trip origin-destination distribution per time
period per trip purpose and per transportation mode, trip origindestination distribution per time period per trip purpose and per
transportation mode for the end year of calibration (RIKS 2012).
Metronamica requires five GIS based input layers: land use, suitability,
zoning, accessibility, and the boundary. Layers such as suitability and
zoning are actually value added information that holds composite
scores. In that case, the layer requires additional input factor data
(Kim and Batty 2011).
123

Metronamica has many options to add data for additional precision: land use
maps of other years to improve calibration accuracy; zoning data; any spatial
data that influences land use choices such as flood risk, soil type,
environmental pollution and air quality, for example (RIKS 2012).
Outputs are a new land use map for each time step and information about
the policy or strategies tried out with the model in the form of time charts,
animations and numeric outputs.
The most effective means of calibrating Metronamica is by visual map
comparison, followed by iterative changes of parameter values and
investigations on the goodness of fit. Globally aggregated statistical metrics
are less relevant to determine the goodness of fit. The total amount of growth
generated by the model will be always the same since it is globally
constrained by an exogenous parameter; thus what is important here in the
calibration process is comparing locally distributed patterns. Unfortunately an
effective method to make a local level comparison is not yet available (Kim
and Batty 2011).
Metronamica package is built using a software library called Geonamica that is
also a product of RIKS. Metronamica is designed with the goal to be
embedded in larger integrated systems or to be extended with additional
models. Metronamica can be executed from other software programs, uses as
much open data formats as possible and uses easy to use, well-documented,
XML-based formats where no standarts are available (Metronamica 2012).
Theoretically Metronamica application could be assembled and run without
programming knowledge. However it is not so easy and potential modeler
need comprehensive experience in software application design. A GUI
provides access to all variables, parameters and maps used at every level of
detail.
A stand-alone version of the Metronamica package including the land use
124

model and the regional interaction model is priced at 15 000 EUR. Extra
payments

for

additional

components

may

be

possible, besides

the

maintenance contract is 2000 EUR/year.


From the package description, it may be clear that Metronamica is driven by
scenarios and other inputs at the global, and/or the local levels and that it
generates output at the local level. Typically the model is run for a 30-year
period into the future, but shorter or longer time intervals are possible too.
Results are calculated and visualized on a yearly basis. At the local level the
resulting new land use map is generated and presented for every simulated
year. In addition to these, and based on the regional and local state variables,
the software calculates a number of spatial indicators expressing changes in
the economic, social, or environmental status of the area modeled and the
cellular entities. The indicators are specifically designed for the user based on
algorithms provided by the user or developed on the basis of some 5 built-in
generic spatial indicator algorithms performing operations on the state
variables of the model. The latter type of indicators can be entered through
the GUI (Van Delden et al 2005).
Metronamica software ensures manual calibration and validation of the
application, similar to the procedure in the UrbanSim.

6.1.3 WhatIf?
What If? is an interactive GIS software based planning support system
developed in 1997 to support communities to create alternative visions for
their areas future by mapping alternative development patterns determined
by local land development policies. As suggested by its name, the model uses
electronic spreadsheets to identify what would happen if a scenarios
underlying assumptions are correct. The model provides a range of potential
futures based on a range of alternative scenarios rather than a single exact
prediction of the future.
125

What If? is designed to reflect the movement planning with the public
instead of planning for the public. The package provides a set of software
tools that support the open and continuous processes of community learning,
debate, and compromise. In contrast to other models that are for closed and
unsupervised objective analyses by technical experts, the model directly
involves the public in the planning process. Modeling outputs are represented
in easy- to-understand maps and reports to support community-based
collaborative planning efforts (Fang and Soon 2006).
WhatIf? use cases:

To date there have been a number of applications of What If? (version


1.0) in the United States and elsewhere. In Australia, What If? (version
1.0) has been applied to assist the Shire of Hervey in Queensland to
come to terms with the impact of projected population growth
contributed to the sea-change phenomena fuelled by tourism and an
aging retiring population (Pettit et al 2008);

Mitchell Shire local government authority is located 35 to 100 km north


of the City of Melbourne, Australia. The What If? planning support
systems (PSS) have been applied to assist local planners, within Shire
to better understand land suitability and the probable impacts of
projected population growth. Also What If? has been applied to assist
the Shire of Hervey in Queensland to come to terms with the impact of
projected

population

growth

contributed

to

the

sea-change

phenomena fuelled by tourism and an aging retiring population


(http://www.whatifinc.biz/Resources/Applying_What_if.pdf);

Planning commissioners in Waupaca County, Wisconsin, are in the final


stages of completing comprehensive plans for the county and 33 local
government units including Future Land Use (FLU) maps showcasing
preferred future land-use patterns to 2030. FLU maps must represent
the shared vision of the citizenry, be based on accurate data, and be
developed with solid methods. Preparing FLU maps required almost
200 commissioners to garner public input, explore mapped land
126

patterns, estimate future populations and densities, allocate future land


uses,, and assess the consequences of decisions. Planners and
educators from Waupaca County University of Wisconsin-Extension,
Wisconsin
a
consultant, and the Center for Land Use Education (CLUE) at the
University of Wisconsin, Stevens Point, used ArcGIS Desktop software
and What if? planning support software from ESRI business partner
What

if?,

Inc.,

to

accomplish

this

task

(http://www.whatifinc.biz/Resources/Government_Matters_Fall_2007.p
http://www.whatifinc.biz/Resources/Government_Matters_Fall_2007.p
df.
Use of What if? software requires at the minimum an ability to work with
ArcView and similar packages and a familiarity with local and use planning
principles and procedures (Environmental Protection Agency 2000).
2000) Figure 6.2
shows the steps of What If? decision making.

Figure 6.2: What If? decision making in planning support system framework (Pettit
Pettit et al 2008)
2008

127

General input to the What If? model includes natural features, infrastructure
plans, existing land-use patterns, and approved comprehensive plans or
zoning ordinances in GIS coverage, which are combined. The following
information is desirable for better analyses and may be entered into the
system manually (Environmental Protection Agency 2000):

Growth projections for number of households, assumed vacancy and


loss rates, assumed housing densities per land use, employment by
type, assumed employment density;
Alternative development scenarios that are pre-defined by the
community using WhatIf?;
Land-use classifications that are pre-defined by the community using
WhatIf?;
Infrastructure plans that are pre-defined by the community using
WhatIf?.

Unlike more theoretically sophisticated and complex models, Whatif? does not
include measures of spatial interaction, represent the interlinked markets for
land, labor, and infrastructure, or explicitly model the behavior of households,
businesses, and developers (Klosterman 2007).
WhatIf? software involves a simple GUI that allows the user to enter data and
weightings, generate scenarios and examine results, then go back and alter
parameters easily to generate further scenarios. Maps can then be compared
within WhatIf? which provide a powerful tool for assisting in the collaborative
planning process (Klosterman 2007).
The price for the professional WhatIf? software package is $1000 for a single
user; site licenses are available. The academic price of Whatif? is $200 for a
single user.
Use of WhatIf? software requires at the minimum an ability to work with
ArcView and similar packages and a familiarity with local and use planning
principles and procedures (Environmental Protection Agency 2000).
WhatIf? software includes four major components - Current, Suitability,
128

Demand, and Allocation. The Current component allows the user to view
maps showing the GIS layers that are used in the analysis and reports listing
current land use, population, housing, and employment information for the
study area and its subareas. The Suitability component considers the supply
of land by allowing the user to specify different factors. The Demand
component considers the demand for land by allowing the user to prepare
scenarios projecting the amount of land that will be required to accommodate
future population and employment growth. The final component, Allocation,
jointly considers supply and demand by allowing the user to create Allocation
scenarios that project future land use, population, and employment patterns
by allocating the projected land use demands (as determined by a Demand
scenario) to the most suitable locations (as determined by a Suitability
scenario). The Allocation scenarios can also incorporate public policies such as
the implementation of a land use or open space preservation plan or the
staged expansion of public infrastructure (Klosterman 2007).
WhatIf? software requires pre-processing (buffering, union, clip, clean...) of
input data layers to create a Unified Analysis Zone file, which is stored in
ESRIs shapefile (*.shp) format (Pettit et al 2008).
What If? consists of three software modules: Suitability, Growth, and
Allocation Module. The Suitability Module determines land use suitability. The
Growth Module projects future land-use demands. The Allocation Module
allocates projected demands to the most suitable location (Environmental
Protection Agency 2000, Ravulaparthy and Goulias 2011).

6.1.4 FEARLUS model


FEARLUS (Framework for Evaluation and Assessment of Regional Land Use
Scenarios) is a part of the LUCC project at the Macaulay Land Use Research
Institute. Land use change is a vital aspect of the development of coupled
socio-ecosystems at a range of scales from the local to the global. FEARLUS is
129

a response to the difficulties of understanding land use change, and hence of


foreseeing the likely consequences of possible changes in the complex
network of processes that produce it. These include local biophysical factors,
climatic and economic conditions, technical innovation, social, cultural and
institutional influences, and policy-makers' decisions. Moreover, changes in
land use can themselves affect some of these constraints and influences on
future change (Macaulay Land Use Research Institute 2009).
The system contains objects that represent human decision-makers in the
real world (land managers) and takes into account attributes such as yield
from land parcels. Parameters to the modeling environment allow a variety of
land-use strategies and their outcomes to be explored.
The initial FEARLUS project ran from April 1998 to March 2003, but
afterwards it has been further elaborated. The project home page is
http://www.macaulay.ac.uk/fearlus/.
FEARLUS use cases:

FEARLUS-W model was implemented within a Project EU Water


Framework Directive, aimed at investigating ways of synthesizing
stakeholder priorities. FEARLUS-W is extended version of an existing
spatially explicit agent-based model of land use change, FEARLUS
(http://www.macaulay.ac.uk/fearlus/FLUD.pdf);

FEARLUS model was used in CAVES (Complexity, Agents, Volatility,


Evidence and Scale) EU project, which ran from March 2005 to April
2008. The model was used to study Grampian region of Scotland. The
focus of the Grampian region case study was on land use change
patterns in the Upper Deeside region of North East Scotland between
the mid 1980s and 2030 (http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/13/2/10.html);

The Scottish Government had adopted the biodiversity 2010 agenda of


reducing biodiversity loss from agriculture. Therefore FEARLUS was
used to explore biodiversity incentive schemes. It was coupled with an
130

enhanced version of Moilanens Stochastic Patch Occupancy model,


which is capable of simulating multiple species and interactions among
them. The project was funded by the Scottish Government Rural and
Environment

Research

and

Analysis

Directorate

(http://www.iemss.org/iemss2010/papers/S07/S.07.15.Analysis%20of
%20incentive%20schemes%20for%20biodiversity%20using%20a%20
coupled%20agentbased%20model%20of%20land%20use%20change
%20and%20species%20metacommunity%20model%20%20GARY%20POLHILL.pdf).
The objects in a FEARLUS simulation package include:

A Grid of Land Parcels;

The Grid may consist of Squares, equilateral Triangles, or equilateral


Hexagons. The Grid is rectangular in shape, consisting of xy Parcels (x
and y integers). Each Parcel can be identified by its X and Y
coordinates;
A Neighbor Relation is defined on the Parcels. This specifies which
pairs of Parcels are considered Physical Neighbors. A range of possible
Neighbor Relations has been implemented, all but one of them based
on the X and Y coordinates. This can be described in terms of three
parameters (Topology, Neighborhood Function, Neighborhood Radius);
Each Land Parcel has a set of Biophysical Properties, encoded as a
bitstring and fixed for the duration of a simulation run; the length of
these bitstrings is a model parameter, the same for all Land Parcels.
They are used in investigating how the type and degree of the
Environments spatial heterogeneity affects the models dynamics;
The Global Environment. This consists of External Conditions, two
numerical parameters which do not vary over space or time (the Break
Even Threshold which specifies how much economic return or Yield
must be gained from a Land Parcel to break even, and the Land Parcel
Price) and a set of Land Uses;
A set of Land Managers (considered as representing households or
firms, not individuals). Each Land Manager has an Account, initially
having the value 0, and a Land Use Selection Algorithm, described
below. Each Land Manager is assigned an m by n block of Land Parcels
(m divides x, n divides y). There are thus xy/mn Land Managers in the
initial state of the model;
One or more Subpopulations. A Subpopulation is a generator of Land
Managers, and is considered to represent a type of Land Manager (for
example, family farm households, or agribusiness companies). When
a Land Manager is created, it is assigned at random to a
Subpopulation, according to a probability distribution which is a model

131

parameter. Each Subpopulation in turn has an associated probability


distribution of Land Use Selection Algorithms, used to assign such an
Algorithm to a newly created Land Manager (Cioffi-Revilla and Gotts
2003).

Verification of FEARLUS models involves black-box system testing


constructing simple cases whose outcomes can be calculated manually and
confirming that the models reproduce the expected outcomes. Validation,
such as it is, is achieved through non-parametric statistical tests of results
acquired from repeated runs of the model using the same parameters but
different random seeds (McConnell 2001).
A FEARLUS simulation run repeats the following annual cycle (Gotts et al
2003):

Selection of Land Uses. The Land Use for each Land Parcel is selected
by its Land Manager, using the latters Land Use Selection Algorithm;

Calculation of External Conditions;


Calculation of Yields. Yield from a Land Parcel is determined by

matching the concatenated bit strings for the Parcels Biophysical


Characteristics and External Conditions, against one representing
requirements of the current Land Use, and counting the matching bits;
Harvest. The Account of each Land Manager is adjusted. For each Land
Parcel owned, the Yield for that Parcel is added, and the BET
subtracted;

Selection of Land Parcels for sale, and retirement of insolvent Land


Managers. A Land Manager whose Account is in deficit sells their
worst-performing Parcels to clear the deficit. Land Managers unable to
do so while retaining at least one Parcel, leave the simulation;
Sale of Land Parcels. The selected Land Parcels are sold either to a
neighbouring Land Manager, or to a new Land Manager entering the
simulation.

FEARLUS was initially written in C, with latter versions aiming to be


programmed using JAVA.
The Swarm programming libraries provide the necessary tools:

GUI visualization;
Random number generation;
Best practice programming;
132

Data structures (lists, arrays, hashes, spatial and cellular automaton


data structures);
Scheduling;
Memory management.

6.1.5 LandUse Scanner


The LandUse Scanner is a decision support package, simulating future land
use in the Netherlands. It was developed in the late 1990s by a consortium of
several Dutch research institutes (the National Institute for Public Health and
the Environment, the Free University, the National Spatial Planning Agency
and the Agricultural Economics Research Institute). The model represents
spatial patterns of land use processes such as population growth, production
and natural conservation (Linke 2008).
The discrete choice (logit) model for land-use allocation on which land Use
Scanner is based allows users to test different assumptions about the degree
of rationality of choice in behavior of actors driving land-use changes, ranging
from full rationality through bounded rationality to random choice. In
addition, a multitude of extensions of the basic model, including models of
strategic behavior, are possible (Timmermans et al 2011).
LandUse Scanner simulates future land use through the integration of sectorspecific inputs from other, dedicated models. The decision making is based on
a demand-supply interaction for land, with sectors competing within suitability
and policy constraints. It uses a comparatively static approach that simulates
a future state in a limited number of time steps. Recent software applications
of the model simulate land-use patterns in three subsequent time-steps, each
comprising one or more decades, whereas initial applications used only one or
two time steps. Unlike many other land-use models, the objective of the Land
Use Scanner is not to forecast the amount of land-use change, but rather to
integrate and allocate future demand for land provided by different, external
sources, such as specialized sector-specific models or policy intentions
(Koomen et al 2011).
133

LandUse Scanner is a comparative static model that allocates land use at one
predetermined date at a time, or during a time period (Timmermans et al
2011).
A more extensive mathematical description of the basic model and its
extensions can be found in the Hilferink and Roetveld, 1999.
LandUse Scanner use cases:

The LandUse Scanner was used to simulate land-use changes for a


possible new location of the Dutch national airport. The application
focussed on the possible spatial impact of a new national airport. This
analysis was commissioned by a multi-ministerial task force, which
examined the possible relocation of the Dutch national airport. The
changes in land-use patterns were simulated for nine different location
alternatives
(http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/550026002.pdf).

The Land Use Scanner has been applied in several research projects.
An example of such an application is the evaluation of various
alternatives for the expansion of Amsterdam Airport, e.g. further
concentration on the current location, relocation of Amsterdam Airport
or the relocation of the runways to a new location in the North Sea
accompanied by a rapid transit connection for the management of
passenger and freight flows on Amsterdam Airport. These alternatives
were assessed in terms of the effects on the locational patterns of
employment and population. Another example is the simulation of
Spatial Perspectives 2030. These perspectives, stated by the National
Spatial Planning Agency in rather qualitative terms, used very different
assumptions with respect to trends in lifestyles, locational choices of
households and companies, modal split and the future spatial
organisation of the Netherlands. The Land Use Scanner has been
applied here to elaborate these perspectives in a quantitative way, and
to predict for each perspective the corresponding land use in the year
134

2030
(http://www.google.lv/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=Land+Use+Scanner+use&so
urce=web&cd=17&cad=rja&ved=0CFUQFjAGOAo&url=http%3A%2F%
2Fwww.lumos.info%2Fdownloadpublicatiefile.php%3Fid%3D73&ei=pp
1AUMKnG4zP4QS5wYCAAg&usg=AFQjCNHCjBvTbxbEDES4IrxnR_2_F6
OQLQ).

Five main activities that have to be carried out to implement a new


application in Land Use Scanner (for more detailed description sees in
Koomen et al 2011):

Construction of a base map of land use and classification of land use;


Collecting the demand for land;
Collection of datasets representing specific aspects of suitability;
Set-up of allocation rules and attachment of relative weights;
Conversion and assessment of model outcomes.

There are two versions of LandUse Scanner, they can process grid cells of
500x500m and 100x100m. Allocation of land uses to cells in the continuous
model occurs using bi-proportional adjustment. Such that demand for land by
each land-use type and supply of land in each cell are balanced (or remain
above or below these constraints). Allocation of land uses to cells in the
discrete model occurs by optimization (by finding an optimal solution of the
Linear Semi Assignment Problem). The calibration of the continuous version
of the model was originally done by iterative search for best-fit coefficients of
the discrete choice model. Recent calibration methods for both versions use
logistic regression (Timmermans et al 2011).
There are three scenarious available (Divided Europe, European co-ordination,
Global competition) (Hilferink and Roetveld 1999).
For each time step of 10 years the LandUse Scanner models a new land-use
map. Regional and global claims are allocated to individual grid-cells based on
their suitability. The user can specify minimum and maximum values of cells
with a certain land use that must be allocated (for example maximum hectare
135

of industry). Also the neighbourhood of cells is included, enabling to model


spatial relations (Hilferink and Roetveld 1999).
The LandUse Scanner includes no stochastic (random) effect, so that only one
solution for a given initial situation is modeled (Linke 2008).
Software modules were developed in the C++. The system manages several
sets of tables, some related to grid cells, others to regions containing
attributes on regional claims. The resulting maps in grid format can be
exported as ASCII files and thus used in typical GIS applications (Linke 2008).
The

software

can

be

downloaded

from:

http://www.lumos.info/landusescanner.htm.

6.1.6 SLEUTH
The SLEUTH (Slope, Land use, Exclusion, Urban, Transportation, Hillshading)
software package, commonly known as the Clarke Cellular Automata Urban
Growth Model or as the Clarke Urban Growth Model, is intended to simulate
urban growth in order to aid in understanding how expanding urban areas
consume their surrounding land, and the environmental impact this has on
the local environment (Environmental Protection Agency 2000).
The majority of SLEUTH applications have been for urban forecasting or for
integrated modeling of urban growth with some other social or physical
process model or planning effort (Clarke et al 2007).
SLEUTH use cases:

The

SLEUTH

model

(slope,

landuse,

exclusion,

urban

extent,

transportation and hillshade), formerly called the Clarke Cellular


Automaton Urban Growth Model, was developed for and tested on
various cities in North America, including Washington, DC, and
SanFrancisco. In contrast, this research calibrated the SLEUTH model
for two European cities, the Portuguese metropolitan areas of Lisbon
136

and

Porto

(http://www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/gig/Pub/SLEUTHPapers_Nov24/Si
lva&Clarke.pdf);

The SLEUTH is used to simulate future (2002-2030) urban growth in


the

Houston

metropolitan

area,

one

of

the

fastest

growing

metropolises in the United States during the past decades. The model
is calibrated with historical data for the period 1974-2002 that are
extracted

from

time

series

of

satellite

images

(http://www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/gig/Repository/references/Housto
n_TX/etd-tamu-2004A-FORS-Oguz-1.pdf);

Also the SLEUTH was used to simulante urban growth and the impacts
of future policy scenarios on urban land use in the Baltimore
Washington

metropolitan

area

(http://199.92.170.10/resources/publications/pdf/JantzEnvPlanB.03.pdf
);

The SLEUTH model was chosen to calibrate urban growth in two Asian
cities, Chiang Mai (Thailand) and Taipei (Taiwan). These cities are
undergoing rapid land use/land cover change as a result of robust
economic and population growth.

SLEUTH cellular automata model

contains characteristics that offer advantages for modelling physical


dynamics. Because of its cellular data structure, it can be integrated
with

raster-based

remote

sensing

data

(http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim05/papers/sangawongse.pdf);

The SLEUTH has been used to simulate and predict urban growth of
Pune city (India) by 2030 and its impact on the surrounding rural
areas. The study is based on 38 years (1973-2011) of multi-temporal
data compiled and interpreted from Landsat images, Survey of India
toposheets

and

Aster

GDEM

(http://www.ipublishing.co.in/jggsvol1no12010/voltwo/EIJGGS3048.pdf
).

137

This software simulates the transition from non-urban to urban land-use using
a grid of cells (cellular automaton) each of whose land- use state is
dependent upon local factors (e.g., roads, existing urban areas, topography),
temporal factors, and random factors (Environmental Protection Agency
2000).
An underlying assumption of the model is that historical growth trends will
continue and that the future may be projected based on these trends. Under
this assumption, all the cells are updated synchronously in discrete time steps
(one year) and the state of each cell depends on the previous state of its
surrounding neighbors. In the model, each cell is used to model land use
changes and the land use state of each cell is predicted based on local factors
(e.g., roads, existing urban areas, topography), temporal factors, and random
factors. Urban land is defined as residential, commercial, mixed use, and
industrial land uses (Fang and Soon 2006).
Six data inputs are required to run the SLEUTH model:

Topographic slope layer;


Land use;
Areas excluded from urbanization (one layer, areas unavailable for
development);
Urban extents (for statistical purposes at least four layers from
different years);
Road transportation layer (two layers of different years, a road
hierarchy can be defined);
Graphic hill shade layer (one layer, use as a background only with
graphical model version) (Linke 2008).

Since spatial framework of the model is raster-based, the input data are
required to be in a raster format. Slope data in GIF format may be derived
from a Digital Elevation Model. Excluded areas where urbanization cannot
occur are also provided in GIF format. These areas include, for instance,
water bodies, roads/transportation network, urban extent, and land cover
(Fang and Soon 2006).
The model outputs are provided as a set of GIF image files that may be
merged into an animation or brought into a GIS as data layers. The resolution
of output images depends on the resolution of the input data. The model
138

output includes a snapshot of a particular year, a cumulative image produced


by multiple runs that shows a probability of urbanization for a given year, a
set of best fit metric between modeled and real data for calibrating the
model, actual values of model output for control years averaged over the
number of model simulations, the standard deviations of the average actual
values, final coefficient values, and the start and stop times for an entire
model execution (Environmental Protection Agency 2000). It provides both
graphical and statistical outputs.
Modeling is executed from a command line terminal. For the execution of the
model, it is assumed in this documentation that all program and input files are
located as they are in the downloaded directory structure. The input files
must be in the proper format, and a naming convention must be followed in
order for the model to read data in correctly. In order to intelligently calibrate
the model a thorough understanding of the growth rules, scenario file and
statistical output files is necessary and should be reviewed carefully.
A simulation must be initialized with a set of conditions. These initial
conditions are a) an integer value, or seed, that initializes the random number
generator b) a value for each of the five growth coefficients and c) SLEUTH
input images most closely representing the start date. With these initial
conditions growth cycles are generated. It is assumed that one growth cycle
represents a year of growth. When the required number of growth cycles
could be generated (USGS 2008).
SLEUTH simulates four types of urban land-use change: spontaneous growth,
new spreading center growth, edge growth, and road-influenced growth.
These four growth types are applied sequentially during each growth cycle, or
year, and are controlled through the interactions of five growth coefficients:
dispersion, breed, spread, road gravity, and slope. In conjunction with the
excluded layer probabilities, the five growth coefficients determine the
probability of any given location becoming urbanized. The user-defined
excluded layer specifies areas that are wholly or partially unavailable for
development. Water, for example, would have an exclusion value of 100,
139

indicating that it is 100% excluded from development. If a cell that is chosen


for potential urbanization has exclusion value of 50, it has a 50% probability
of being urbanized in any given simulation (Jantz et al 2004).
One run is a single set of five parameters from the earliest or start date, to
the latest (present) date. The code matches model behavior with the actual
data when it reaches the data years, and computes a total of 13 measures of
the goodness of fit between a models run and reality. A composite of these
measures, averaged over several Monte Carlo iterations, then scores the
parameter set. Three phases are used in calibration, with user choices
between them. At first, large increments of the parameters are used to cover
the whole space. When the outcomes are scored and ranked, the highest
scoring parameter sets are used to bracket the next round of values, and
smaller increments used. Again, runs are scored and ranked, and a last round
with unit increments is used to select the best parameter set. This set is
then used to start the model, and the finishing parameter set saved to start a
forecast run into the future. Explanations for the procedure to follow are
included in the documentation, and have been improved upon in the reported
literature (Clarke 2008).
SLEUTH is created in a C and running under UNIX type operating systems. It
can be formatted for any other standard C compiler. Some minor changes in
the code might be necessary for execution in new environments. In order to
implement the model a good understanding of C programming is expected
(USGS 2008). The software can be downloaded from the Internet for free, as
well as demo sample data and demo city.
Installation, calibration and exploitation of the application require experience
in UNIX and GNU C compiler, as well as land-use modeling expertise is
recommendable (Environmental Protection Agency 2000).

140

6.2 Other domains policy simulation packages review


Twenty-four tools were reviewed. Two were open-source tools, five were
freeware, seventeen were commercial software, and one tool had a
commercial and a free version. The products were chosen according to
criteria defined in part 4. Package description summary in table form is
available in Annex 3 and Annex 4. Even though packages related to land use
and transportation can be clearly identified, simulation packages designed for
other domains, for example, Housing, Urban segregation, Environment,
Community facilities, City treasury, Tourism and Economics are mostly
multifunctional.
6.2.1 Transport and movement
Traffic flow simulations can be separated into three main categories:

Microscopic simulation the focus is on the vehicle and its links, for
example, vehicle driver. Vehicle speed, location, and lane changing
are also taken into account. (Kokkingenis et al 2012, Al-Hamid 2011);
Macroscopic simulation - focuses on the description of the traffic flow
without going into detailed modeling. Vehicle type and driving style is
ignored (Kokkingenis et al 2012, Al-Hamid 2011). This approach is
better suited for highway network or inter-regional road simulation.
(Kokkingenis et al 2012);
Mesoscopic simulation - combines the aggregate level approach of
macroscopic models and the individual interactions of the microscopic
ones. This has been achieved by describing the traffic entities at a high
level of detail, while their behavior and interactions are designed at a
lower level of detail. (Kokkingenis et al 2012, Al-Hamid 2011).

More than 14 simulation packages for the Transport and movement domain
have been reviewed, for example, SUMO, Quadstone Paramics, Aimsun,
SimTraffic, CORSIM, Road Traffic, SimWalk Transport, Dynameq, Dynasim,
TransModeller, Vissim, Emme, TransCAD, VISUM etc.

SUMO (SUMO 2012) is a highly portable, microscopic road traffic simulation


package designed to handle large road networks. SUMO is an open-source
141

tool developed by employees of the Institute of Transportation Systems at the


German Aerospace Centre. The program was written in C++ and has been
developed since 2001. The available documentation is good, because it
features detailed explanations about all aspects of the product as well as
information on how to import various types of files. The tool can handle
networks with more than 10,000 streets. With the Netconverter tool, it is
possible to import road networks from other traffic flow simulators such as
VISUM, Vissim, or MATsim (Behsrisch et al 2011). The product can open
vector data formats (.shp) and OpenStreetMap maps, as well as less known
RoboCup network and OpenDRIVE formats.

SUMO use cases:

The most recent are iTetris, VABENE and CityMobil. iTETRIS is a


project funded by the FP7 Framework Programme. iTetris is an
Integrated Wireless and Traffic Platform for Real-Time Road Traffic
Management Solutions. During the iTETRIS project, SUMO functionality
was upgraded to facilitate simulating noise levels, exhaust fumes, and
fuel consumption (Behsrisch et al 2011);

Pre-Drive

C2X project

was

aimed

to

preparation

for

driving

implementation and evaluation of C2X communication technology;

CityMobil - Automatic urban transportation. A simulation for a parking


lot inspired by the Rome demonstrator is included with SUMO
(http://sumo.sourceforge.net/doc/current/docs/userdoc/Other/Projects
.html). SUMO was also recently improved by adding travel planning
options for the following vehicles personal car, public transportation
or walking.

Compared to other simulation tools, SUMO has an average GUI and creation
of new models is quite complicated.

142

Quadstone Paramics (Quadstrone Paramics 2012) is a commercial vehicle and


pedestrian flow simulation tool developed by SIAS Ltd and Quadstone Ltd in
Scotland (Kokkingenis et al 2012). The product also includes half a year or a
full year of technical support based on the type of licence. Paramics is being
developed since 1990 and the most recent version was released in July 2011.
This tool enables the user to simulate traffic systems of entire cities including
public transportation routes. Paramics is being used in more than 80 countries
and has thousands of clients including commercial consultants, regional and
local municipalities, and traffic flow researchers.

Quadstone Paramics use cases:

Transcore were commissioned by the City of Subiaco (Australia) to


provide traffic engineering services for the subdivision of the Bosich
site at 20 Roydhouse Street in Subiaco. As part of this study Transcore
prepared a Paramics microsimulation traffic model to assess different
road network and access options for the site (http://www.paramicsonline.com/insight/category/case-studies/);

GMD Consultants is a Mumbai (India) based consultancy providing


value added solutions for the engineering, design and project
management aspects of infrastructure projects including roads &
highways, bridges & structures, traffic & transportation and township
infrastructure. GMD are pioneering the use of Paramics UAF in India on
a range of projects including a mixed use development in north India
evaluating the Level of Service provided to vehicles and people in and
around a new build hotel/office/residential complex with over 1000
parking

spaces

(http://www.paramics-

online.com/insight/category/case-studies/);

Bitzios Consulting was appointed to prepare a ground transport plan


for the Gold Coast Airport to determine on site infrastructure needs
as well as external transport infrastructure needs for roads, public
transport, walking and cycling over the next 20 years. Paramics was
used to simulate current traffic operations and assess multiple options
143

for the proposed ground transport plan (http://www.paramicsonline.com/insight/category/case-studies/);

The Project WIS 241/27th Street Road Safety Audit provided an


independent evaluation of two alternative improvement scenarios for a
2 mile portion of WIS 241/27th Street in Milwaukee County. Paramics
was used to model the existing conditions, the future-no-build
scenario, and the proposed roundabout and signal design alternatives.
The network was coded to focus on 6 major intersections with
proposed improvements along the corridor. Paramics Estimator was
used to calibrate the AM, PM, and Saturday peak-hours in the existing
and

future

conditions

(http://www.paramics-

online.com/insight/category/case-studies/).

The program has good documentation and video tutorials are available. The
product has a good graphical user interface. Paramics allows creating large
road networks with up to 1000000 intersections and 32000 zones and/or
parking spaces. (Quadstrone Paramics 2012). It offers 256 road categories
and 128 customizable vehicle types as well as 64 different driving styles. It is
possible to simulate up to 32 road lanes in one direction. (Quadstrone
Paramics 2012). The program not only supports data formats from traffic flow
simulation tools such as Corsim, Synchro, Cube, and Emme, but also allows
importing raster files and provides a link with GIS ESRI and Mapinfo. Google
SketchUP and Autodesk products can also be integrated.

144

Aimsun (Transport simulation systems 2012) is traffic simulation software that


allows users to simulate anything from a single bus lane to a whole city.
Aimsun is being developed since 1997 and has thousands of registered users
around the world, including state agencies, consultant offices, and universities
(Transport simulation systems 2012) (see
(
Figure 6.3).

Figure 6.3:: Aimsun user interface (Transport simulation systems 2012)

Aimsun is commercial software. All licensed users are provided with free
technical support and software updates. Compared to the small and standard
versions, the professional
ional and advanced editions have no road network
limitations. With the small edition, it is possible to simulate networks with a
maximum total lane legth of 40 km. In the standard edition, the limit is 200
km.
Aimsun use cases:

Aimsun is used to develop


d
a proof-of-concept
concept for the Simulation
Framework and extend to the entire highway system in the Greater
Toronto Area. The model is to become MTO Central Regions primary
145

tool for future traffic analysis as part of planning and design,


operational reviews and traffic management strategy decision-making
(http://www.aimsun.com/wp/?cat=3);

Modelle (TECTRAN Group) is using Aimsun software in a series of


ongoing deployment studies as part of the Transport Strategic Plan for
the 2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games in Rio de Janeiro. The plan
includes a special lane network dedicated to the Olympic Family,
prioritising participants' circulation during the event, either through
segregated

tracks

or

priority

shift

(http://www.aimsun.com/wp/?cat=3);

Aimsun alsos is used in New YourkCity (Manhattan Traffic Model),


Montreal (expand and integrate the city model), Saint Petersburg, Sheffield
(city centre model), Paris (east extension of the Tramway des Marchaux),
Zaragoza ( Mobility Plan). Barcelona (variable speed limits on the access roads)
and

Hong

Kong

(http://www.aimsun.com/wp/?cat=3,http://www.aimsun.com/wp/?cat
=3&paged=2).

The product features good documentation with detailed explanations for all
functions. Aimsun projects are stored in a database. Database support
includes Access, SQLite, Postgres 8, MySQL and products that support ODBC.
The user interface is good, because it is understandable and intuitive (see
Figure 6.3). Aimsun supports data exchange with popular CAD, GIS, traffic
simulation as well as signal optimization, and adaptive management software
(see Annex 3). The visualized model can be viewed from several perspectives.
Compared to Paramics, simulation model creation in Aimsun is more
straightforward and faster (Ratrout and Rahman 2009).

TrafficWare SimTraffic (TrafficWare 2012) is a microscopic simulation tool for


modelling traffic and pedestrian flow. It is a commercial product. The Syncro
Studio 8 (Syncro, SimTraffic, SimTraffic CI, 3D Viewer) licence costs 4098
USD, but when buying in bulk, for example, 5-9 licences, one costs 2598 USD
146

(TrafficWare 2012). The licence includes free two-year technical support.


Synchro is a microanalysis and optimization tool, which allows analysing
intersection and roundabout capacity, including intersections with traffic
lights. The maximum number of onedirectional roundabout lanes is two with a
maximum of three exits. (Synchro Studio 7 2012). Bing maps can be imported
as backgrounds. 3D Viewer is a 3D viewing and generation tool, which
automatically converts SimTraffic 2D models into 3D. SimTraffic also offers
analysis of environmental factors emission simulation (HC, CO, NOx) (Azam
2010). SimTraffic has a standard user interface. The documentation is good,
because it includes examples on how to create your own flow model.

TrafficWare SimTraffic use case:

In the project Synchrogreen real-time adaptive traffic control system


Seminole county deployment, Trafficware constructed simulation
models for the SR 436 corridor using Synchro and SimTraffic. SR 436
(Altamonte Drive), between Westmonte Drive and Maitland Avenue, is
a 1.7 mile roadway segment in Seminole County, Florida. This corridor
includes 12 traffic signals and is a minimum six lane roadway section.
This corridor presents a number of challenges with respect to traffic
signal coordination, which are not easily overcome using conventional
traffic signal timing principles. High pedestrian volumes crossing SR
436 and emergency vehicle pre-emption calls frequently caused traffic
controllers to enter transition mode. Seminole County staff, over the
years, have adjusted the signal timing on SR 436 in response to
changing traffic conditions through routine maintenance and retiming
studies. Despite these adjustments, the unpredictable nature and dayto-day fluctuation on this corridor are not conducive
coordinated

to actuatedoperations

(http://www.trafficwareinc.com/sites/default/files/Seminole%20County
%20ITE%202012%20Session%2038.pdf).

147

TSIS-CORSIM (McTrans Moving Technology 2012) is a traffic simulation


software package for freeways, streets, and intersections with traffic lights
systems. One license costs 1000 USD and includes 12 months of technical
support. It is being developed since 1996 and the latest version is a
combination of TSIS-CORSIM and TRANSYT-7F. The tool allows creating
simple traffic flow models, which include highways, toll roads, busses and bus
stops, as well as emergency transport and taxis.

TSIS-CORSIM use cases:

TSIS-CORSIM was used to analyze performance of four type of exit


ramps

on

Floridas

freeways.

Comparisons

of

the

operational

performance of different types of exit ramps are made to present a


method for choosing the optimal one. Some methods of evaluation
(MOEs) are used to approach this objective, such as number of lane
changes, average speed, delay time, etc. Data collection at 24 sites in
Florida was conducted, and traffic simulations by TSIS-CORSIM were
applied

for

analysis

(http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4413&con
text=etd&seiredir=1&referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.lv%2Furl%3Fsa%3Dt
%26rct%3Dj%26q%3DTSISCORSIM%2Buse%2Bcase%2Bwas%2Bused%26source%3Dweb%26cd
%3D11%26cad%3Drja%26ved%3D0CB4QFjAAOAo%26url%3Dhttp%
253A%252F%252Fscholarcommons.usf.edu%252Fcgi%252Fviewconte
nt.cgi%253Farticle%253D4413%2526context%253Detd%26ei%3DkJR
EUMavOOPd4QTcxYDIDQ%26usg%3DAFQjCNEv4y38QzZ_g3F8HLewgi
QbBaekJA#search=%22TSIS-CORSIM%20use%20case%20used%22);

TSIS-CORSIM was used to model and simulate right-turn movements


under various conditions. This Project was sponsored by Minnesota
Department

of

Transportation

Research

Services

Section

(http://www.lrrb.org/pdf/200825.pdf);
148

TSIS-CORSIM was used to study traffic of Downtown Rochester,


Minnesota and a Downtown Access and Mobility Study in Austin, Texas
(http://www.cenint.com/download/6%20-%20EMSIM%202.pdf);

Also TSIS-CORSIM was used to simulate the evacuation traffic of


Mississippi Stated University main campus and to evaluate a set of
traffic management plans (http://gradworks.umi.com/1462655.pdf);

The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) used


the traffic simulation model TSIS-CORSIM to access proposed capacity
and safety improvement strategies for the US 61 corridor through
Burlington, Iowa. This project was sponsored by the Engineering
Division

of

the

Iowa

Department

of

Transportation

(http://www.intrans.iastate.edu/reports/burlington.pdf).

TSIS-CORSIM has an average standard type user interface. More visual


options would be advisable.

When comparing SimTraffic, CORSIM, and Aimsun, exactly SimTraffic offers


the easiest and fastest model creation tools (Jones et al 2004). SimTraffic can
export CORSIM files, which is ideal for simulating structures that are more
complex. With CORSIM, it is possible to simulate more complex road networks
and situations than with SimTraffic (Jones et al 2004). Therefore, it is more
suited

for

urban

simulation.

If

CORSIM

is

used

together

with

Synchro/SimTraffic, models can be created faster than if they were designed


only using CORSIM. CORSIM has the tendency to overestimate road capacity.
As a result, capacity is shown higher than it will be in real life (Jones et al
2004). Aimsun has serveral features that could be useful in creating large
urban or regional road networks, but it requires a lot of complex
programming, which is time consuming (Jones et al 2004).

Microsimulation of Road Traffic (Treiber 2012) is a personal software project


created by Treiber and used in traffic dynamics and traffic modelling research.
(Kotusevski and Hawick 2012). It is a free Java application. It is possible to
149

simulate traffic flow based on speed limitations, the closing of one lane and
traffic flow on an overpass. Application and user interface capabilities are
limited.

SimWalk Transport (SimWalk Transport 2012) is a simulation software


solution for pedestrian logistics. It is possible to simulate pedestrian flow in
train, metro and bus stations, as well as boarding and exiting public
transportation. The tool is also capable of modelling passenger flow within a
vehicle and capacity of objects (escalators, stairs, and elevators). One license
costs 12600 Euro (Savannah Simulations AG 2012) and includes technical
support as well as software updates for the first year. SimWalk Transport
model results are stored in an Access database, but they can also be exported
as an Excel file.

SimWalk Transport use case:

SimWalk Transport is used to simulate evacuation of different metro


stations in Lima (Peru). Also SimWalk Transport is used to simulante
railway station capacity of Matabiau in Toulouse (France), impact of
pedestrian detour at Zurich main station (Switzerland), punctuality of
S-Bahn Zurich (Switzerland) - passenger simulation to analyse and
improve punctuality of Zurich S-Bahn, a regional transportation
operator, at Zurich Stadelhofen station. Pedestrian flows train station
Oerlikon (Switzerland) - Analysis and visualization of pedestrian flows,
depending

on

different

planned

train

station

upgradings

(http://www.simwalk.com/simwalk_transport/transport_casestudies.ht
ml);

Lyon metro safety simulation (France) - Egis Rail conducted in Lyon a


pedestrian

simulation

analysis

of

passengers

transferring

simultaneously between 2 metro lines via an underground passageway


(http://www.simwalk.com/simwalk_transport/transport_casestudies.ht
ml).
150

SimWalk Transport offers good, detailed documentation with examples on


how to create models. The program has a good standard GUI.

Dynameq (INRO Dynameq 2012) is a mesoscopic traffic simulation and


dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) tool that allows simulating congestion relief
strategies, corridor and lane management, construction mitigation, transit
design, traffic impact studies, as well as emissions modelling.

Dynameq use case:

Dynameq was chosen to model the Smart Corridor through Olympias


congested CBD to improve traffic operations with reserved lanes, signal
coordination,

and

transit

priority

(http://www.inro.ca/en/products/dynameq/Dynameq-brochure.pdf);

SFCTA chose Dynameq to plan the reconstruction of the 4-km


approach to the Golden Gate Bridge and a bus rapid transit corridor,
and

is

actively

pursuing

new

applications

(http://www.inro.ca/en/products/dynameq/Dynameq-brochure.pdf);

The City of Bellevue relies on Dynameq to complement its existing


Emme regional strategic planning tools for detailed analysis and traffic
operations

(http://www.inro.ca/en/products/dynameq/Dynameq-

brochure.pdf);

Dynameq is slated to become an important component in the Portland


Metro tool chest to account for queuing effects, dynamic path choice,
congestion duration, detailed emissions, and transit operations on a
regional scale

(http://www.inro.ca/en/products/dynameq/Dynameq-

brochure.pdf);

Dynameq is used for applications in Montreal for solving existing traffic


problems or forecasting future transportation conditions, simulation
models

are

at

the

centre

of

all

analyses

(http://tram.mcgill.ca/Teaching/seminar/presentations/Application_of_
Dynameq_Montreal.pdf);
151

Dynameq was used to simulate an urban motorway in the city of Basel


(Switzerland) and a system of adjacent intersections. The goal of
project was to find measures to increase the capacity of the motorway
and the adjacent local intersections, especially the Wiesenkreisel. In
short term, there will be mostly traffic management solutions. In the
long term, there are also new infrastructures that need to be evaluated
(http://www.rapp.ch/wAssets-de/docs/trans/fachartikelreferate/2006/dokumente/its-congress-london/dynameq_itslondondoc.pdf).

CUBE Dynasim (Citilabs 2012) is a traffic microsimulation software system


used to model the operational impacts of changes to the built environment
and to operating policy. It realistically emulates the flows of automobiles,
motorcycles, trucks, buses, rail vehicles, bicycles, and pedestrians. It provides
detailed reports, analysis, and 3D and 2D animations. The product can be
installed on several computers, but activation requires a USB or parallel port
key. The licence includes 90-day support and software updates (Citilabs
2012). The licence fee is not listed on the developers homepage. The
available documentation is sufficient to start creating models. The tool has a
standard user interface.

CUBE Dynasim use case:

CUBE Dynasim is used for modelling of different situations in Bangkok.


The model was developed by MVA, the largest specialist transport
planning consultancy operating in Asia (http://www.easts.info/online/proceedings_05/1025.pdf);

The Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Regional Council of Governments is the


metropolitan planning organization for the Cincinnati metropolitan
area. They used Cube Dynasim to evaluate a proposed new
intersection in the Uptown Corridor, which includes access to I-71, to
the University of Cincinnati, and to several large hospitals. The corridor
provides housing for roughly 70,000 people, and creates about 60,000
152

jobs
(http://www.chinautc.com/information/manage/UNCC_Editor/uploadfil
e/20081105151918543.pdf).

TransModeler (Caliper 2012) is a traffic simulation package applicable to a


wide array of traffic planning and modelling tasks. TransModeler can simulate
all kinds of road networks, from freeways to downtown areas, and can
analyse wide area multimodal networks in detail and with high fidelity. It is
possible to create hybrid simulations where microscopic simulation can be
combined with mesoscopic and macroscopic modelling. One licence costs
9998 USD. The bulk price for 6-15 licences is 7995 for one licence (Caliper
2012). This includes technical support and software updates for the first year.
TransModeler has a standard user interface. The developer also offers
training courses, which cost 1200 USD.

TransModeler use case:

The Poughkeepsie-Dutchess County Transportation Council (PDCTC) is


working with

Wilbur

Smith

Associates to develop a Corridor

Management Plan that identifies and recommends policy and project


actions to improve vehicular and non-vehicular movement along CR 93
in the Town of Wappinger, New York. As part of the analysis, Wilbur
Smith Associates will use TransModeler to prepare micro-simulations of
the corridor, including current year and future year base scenarios as
well as several future year alternatives implementing various land use
and transportation strategies. The TransModeler micro-simulations will
allow the PDCTC, the projects Advisory Committee and the public to
visualize alternatives for the corridor and understand trade-offs
between

the

alternative

scenarios

( http://www.caliper.com/transmodeler/ListOfProjects.htm);

ENTRAN, PLC is evaluating the impacts of the Downtown Owensboro


Master Plan, a comprehensive set of recommendations that will change
and revitalize the face of downtown in this western Kentucky city. The
153

recommendation to convert downtown streets from one-way flow to


two-way operation is a keystone of the entire plan. The simulation
model in TransModeler will be integrated with the TransCAD countywide travel demand model to predict changes in travel patterns that
would result from the conversion and to evaluate the associated
operational
impacts (http://www.caliper.com/transmodeler/ListOfProjects.htm);

Caliper Corporation has developed a TransModeler traffic simulation of


the forthcoming High Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes on the Capital
Beltway (I-495) in Virginia with Transurban, a leading toll road owner
and operator in Australia and North America. The Capital Beltway HOT
Lanes project is a nearly two billion dollar public-private partnership
that is intended to be an innovative solution to traffic congestion
through dynamic, open-road tolling. Sensors will monitor traffic levels
continuously, and a tolling algorithm designed to maintain a target
level of service in the HOT lanes will adjust the price dynamically.
Drivers who choose to use the HOT lanes will pay a toll conveyed to
them via dynamic message signs. Carpools with three or more persons,
buses, and emergency vehicles will be able to use the HOT lanes
without

charge

(http://www.caliper.com/transmodeler/ListOfProjects.htm);

Caliper is presently developing a micro-simulation model of the Greater


Eureka Area (GEA) in Northern California for the California Department
of Transportation (Caltrans) and Humboldt County. The simulation in
TransModeler will be integrated with the GEA travel model in TransCAD
and will include a number of base year and future scenarios.
Ultimately, the simulation model and the GEA travel model will
together provide a comprehensive travel demand and traffic simulation
platform with which Caltrans, county, and city staff can evaluate
projects

now

and

in

the

future

(http://www.caliper.com/transmodeler/ListOfProjects.htm).
154

VISSIM (PTV AG 2012) is a microscopic simulation tool for modelling traffic,


public transportation, and pedestrian flow. It is being developed in Germany
since 1992 by PTV. VISSIM is commercial software. Modelling capabilities
include simulating multi-lane motorways, toll roads, intersections with and
without traffic lights, motorcycle lanes and public transportation, pedestrian
flow, waiting scenarios and boarding/exiting public transportation.

VISSIM use case:

HDR Engineering, Inc. recently used VISSIM to analyze traffic


operations for two very different roundabout projects. The first project
included the analysis of six proposed two-lane roundabouts along
Missouri Avenue in St. Robert, Missouri, while the other project
included the analysis of a proposed dumbbell arrangement along
Missouri Route 367 just outside the City of St. Louis, Missouri. VISSIM
was used on both projects due to its excellent graphical capabilities
and its ability to model roundabouts through user-defined parameters
(http://www.urbanstreet.info/2nd_sym_proceedings/Volume%202/Tru
eblood.pdf);

SKRIBT, a research project which is part of the Research for Civil


Security programme funded by Germany's Federal Ministry of
Education, has focused on protecting critical bridges and tunnels. PTV,
which was one of the research project's 10 consortium partners, says
the knowledge and expertise gained from this project have been used
for

the

companys

traffic

simulation

tool VISSIM

(http://www.itsinternational.com/sections/general/news/vissimbenefits-from-german-skribt-research-project/);

Vissim

is

used

to

model

traffic

in

the

city

of

Zrich

(http://www.ivt.ethz.ch/svt/publications/presentations/svtp30.pdf).

In comparison to CORSIM and Synchro/SimTraffic, VISSIM is a more powerful


tool, because it can simulate non-standard situations, but it is also more
complex and requires more programming (Fontaine 2012, PTV Vision 2012).
155

Custom libraries can be created using Visual Basic, Python, or C++. VISSIM
has a standard user interface. The documentation is good and paid courses
are available.

Emme (INRO Emme 2012) is a travel demand forecasting system for urban,
regional, and national transportation planning. Functionality includes route
and strategy analysis, as well as several route expense calculators. Multiple
graphs are available.

Emme use case:

The project consists of the construction of a 7 km section of highway


A-25, between the island of Montral and its northern suburb, the
island of Laval. The transportation model for the Montral area
(MOTREM, for Modle de transport de la rgion de Montral) was
developed with EMME/2 by the Service de la modlisation des
systmes de transport of the Ministre des transports du Qubec. The
current version of the model has been fed by the 1998 OriginDestination travel survey of the Montral area, which makes it possible
to describe the transportation demand (in persons), based on an
average

household

sample

of

5%

(http://www.inrosoftware.com/en/pres_pap/international/ieug02/montr
eal.pdf);

Auckland's integrated Emme model facilitates the evaluation of public


transport initiatives to address heavy reliance on cars and worsening
congestion. The Northern Busway is 6 km of bus rapid transport along
the congested State Highway 1 corridor with park-and-ride facilities.
Planned with Emme and opened in 2008, 39% of passengers had
never used public transport, and peak traffic was reduced by 500 cars
(http://www.inrosoftware.com/en/community/cities.php);

In the 1980s, Madrid was a city in upheaval: income rose, car


ownership increased, and cities sprouted across the capital region. To
better understand the transport needs of an expanding area, Madrid
156

turned to Emme. They've been extending rapid transit across the


metropolitan area, integrating diverse modes of transport, and
installing new HOV lanes in order to improve operations and encourage
conservation (http://www.inrosoftware.com/en/community/cities.php);

Also Emme is used to simulate transport systems in Bogota, Boston,


Brisbane, Cape Town, Chicago, Helsini, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur,
Mexico City, Montreal, Moscow, Mumbai, Portland, Sao PAulo, Seattle,
Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Stocholm, Sydney, Toronto, Vancouver,
Warsaw,

Zurich

(http://www.inrosoftware.com/en/community/cities.php).

Emme is a commercial product. The tool is available on Windows, Linux, and


Solaris. Documentation is good and the user interface type is standard. The
program is fairly easy and intuitive.

TransCAD (Caliper TransCAD 2012) is a simulation tool for travel demand,


traffic flow, and all related processes. The first version of TransCAD was
released in 1988 and has been widely used since then. A product licence costs
12000 USD (Caliper TransCAD 2012) and includes technical support and
software updates for one year. An additional year of technical support costs
1200 USD. The program can be used to create travel routes, predict appeal of
tourism zones, as well as traffic flow and public transportation routes.

TransCAD use case:

TransCAD is used for transportation demand analysis for Tram


Extension in Sofia. The project is funded by the European Investment
Bank (EIB) to perform demand analysis for a proposed tram extension
in Sofia, Bulgaria, for the Municipality of Sofia. The project includes
various aspects of transportation demand analysis, including: Design of
a travel demand model for the Sofia public transport sector; Calibration
of public transportation demand based on existing passenger counts
(2010); Scenario appraisal for the proposed tram line extension;
157

Calculation of operational specifications for the tram; Generation of 30year

ridership

forecasts

for

each

public

transportation

mode

(http://www.caliper.com/Press/pr20101019.htm);

TransCAD is used to develop Travel Demand Forecast Model for


Wichita

Area

Metropolitan

Planning

Organization

(USA)

(http://www.wampoks.org/NR/rdonlyres/FCC3EA2F-5915-44B0-81A181F3DF97FFF3/57738/AppendixC.pdf);

Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (SEMCOG) has built a


travel

demand

forecast

model

using

TransCAD

(http://www.ms2soft.com/doc_ms2/23_tcfd.pdf).

TransCAD includes a geographical analysis toll, which can be used to analyse


several types of data and show them on a map. TransCAD supports many file
formats including popular CAD and GIS software formats, for example, DXF
(AutoCAD), DGN (Intergraph) and APR, AVL, E00, SHP, MDB (ESRI).
TransCad also supports BMP, TIF, PNG, JPG, JPEG, ECW, EMF images and
dBASE, FoxPro, MS Access, and ODBC compatible databases (Caliper
TransCAD 2012). TransCAD includes good documentation, which includes
many examples, and offers training courses. The user interface is good and
has good graphical capabilities.

VISUM (PTV AG VISUM 2012) is similar to TransCAD. Both are commercial


products. With VISUM, data can be analysed and displayed on a map. In
comparison to TransCAD, VISUM has the tools to create microscopic
simulations of traffic flow.

VISUM use case:

PTV VISUM is used to develop cargo traffic macroscopic simulation


model. The goal of model development is to analyse and study the
Riga-Minsk transport corridor. This transport corridor is an important
transport arterial between Latvia and the Republic of Byelorussia. The
growth of goods movement between these countries also could be
158

explained by transit characteristics of both countries. The duration of


transport corridor in the Latvian territory is approximately 300 km. The
corridor crosses a lot of small and large cities that is why the questions
of

its

functioning

performance

are

standing

(http://www.tsi.lv/Research/Conference/RelStat_09/Proceedings/Sess_
9_Jackiv_Savrasov.pdf);

PTV software is used at Cracow University of Technology for over


seven years. The scope of usage for PTV software is rather wide:
academic use as a tool for students supporting lectures, research use
as a tool for scientific workers of the Institute and as a support of
evaluation tasks according to European project CARAVEL; planning
work as a tool for analysis of projects conducted by the Institute
(e.g. feasibility studies or corridor studies .There is also planned usage
of

VISUM

in

two European

Programmes: POLCORRIDOR and

REORIENT
(http://cgi.ptv.de/download/traffic/aws05/A3E_Szarata_VISUMCracow.
pdf);

PTV VISSUM is also used to simulate the Berlin Public Transport


System (http://matsim.org/uploads/590/20110407_UsrMtg_PtBln.pdf).

VISUM is an open object-oriented concept tool, which enables users to create


their own applications using Visual Basic, Python, or C++. The available
documentation is detailed and the user interface type is standard.

Community Viz (Placeways 2012) is an extension for ESRI ArcGIS, which costs
850 USD. The licence includes technical support and software updates for one
year. This software package enables users to analyse environmental pollution
and economical and social impact based on land use. Traffic planning is also
available.

Community Viz use case:


159

Early in 2008, the City of Utrecht (Netherlands) began shaping plans


for a green neighborhood in Rijnenburg, an agricultural polder on the
southwest side of the city. The Dutch consulting firm MAPSUP and
IVAM were enlisted to engage stakeholders in the analysis of various
plan scenarios.

MAPSUP used CommunityViz on a MapTable to

compare alternative scenario designs by looking at indicator scores.


Indicators were based on the Sustainability Profile of a Location (DPL),
developed by IVAM. DPL is a computer model which quantifies the
sustainability of a district and indicates its strengths and weaknesses.
It can be applied to both existing and planned districts, and the model
makes it easy to give sustainability a prominent position in the
planning

process

(http://placeways.com/communityviz/gallery/casestudies/pdf/Utrecht.p
df);

The Community of Lomianki lies in the valley of the Vistula River, about
16 kilometers (10 miles) northwest from the center of the Warsaw.
Just outside of town lies Polands Kampinoski National Park. The
Centrum Gospodarki Przestrzennej (Center for Spatial Management)
used CommunityViz and a variety of GIS datasets including cadastral
land-use information, environmental data, and zoning regulations to
define three alternative growth scenarios. The first scenario reflected
development under the current growth plan. The second scenario
reflected a more conservative approach focused on reduction of
undesirable effects of development. The third scenario substantially
concentrated development, increasing density in some areas by
transferring

growth

from

others

(http://placeways.com/communityviz/gallery/casestudies/pdf/Lomianki.
pdf);

The

centrepiece

of

the

project

Community-Based

Biodiversity

Conservation in Australia was the interactive Collaborative Habitat


Investment Atlas, a participatory tool developed in CommunityViz. The
Atlas was used to promote dynamic interaction among stakeholders
160

through the use of variables that can be weighted to reflect differing


biodiversity protection requirements, and formulabased dynamic
attributes that are automatically updated as changes are made in the
weighting of the variables. Three sub-models were brought together to
facilitate decision-making: a Biodiversity Sensitivity Model which
incorporates and weights up to 15 biodiversity attributes; a Threat
Model which incorporates and weights areas potentially cleared in the
business-as-usual 2025 scenario analysis, weeds, distance to major
and minor roads, future development applications, fragmentation and
2031 rural living and urban footprints; and a Protection Level Model
which

summarizes

and

weights

legislative

protection

levels

(http://placeways.com/communityviz/gallery/casestudies/pdf/WetTropi
cs.pdf).

Community Viz offers good documentation. The user interface is intuitive.

6.2.2 Combined policy modelling packages


This chapter reviews modelling packages than can be relatively assigned to a
specific domain. The analysed packages simulate problems within Housing,
Environment, Community facilities, Tourism, and Economy domains.
I-PLACE3s (SACOG 2012) is a web-based modelling platform. I-PLACE3s
consists of one data file that is maintained and updated. This file can include
more than 750,000 entries. It is possible to analyse employment by sector,
traffic flow, and availability of housing, as well as simulate air pollution and
transit routes.
I-PLACE3s use case:

In 2003, the Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG)


launched a region wide growth analysis called Blueprint. The awardwinning Blueprint project has been a resounding success in helping
161

planners and citizens in the six county Sacramento region make


informed land use choices for future growth. I-PLACE3s was used to
determine how different regional growth alternatives would affect the
transportation system, air quality, housing, natural resource protection,
and many other issues;

I-PLACE3s and its former iteration, I-PLACE3s, have also been used in
the following settings and locations, among others:


The San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG)


used I-PLACE3s in the development of their Regional
Comprehensive Plan. I-PLACE3s is also being used to
assist local jurisdictions within the region in implementing
compact, mixeduse, pedestrian friendly development at
transit stations;

San Diego used I-PLACE3s in a neighborhood planning


process for the Mid-City neighborhood;

In Oregon, the Lane Council of Governments (L-COG, the


Eugene-Springfield region), used I-PLACE3s in its regional
transportation plan update;

The City of Portland used I-PLACE3s to analyze the


impacts of redevelopment of the River District in
downtown

Portland

(http://www.google.lv/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=IPLACE3s+use+case&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&ved=0
CEIQFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kingcounty.gov%2
Ftransportation%2FHealthScape%2F~%2Fmedia%2Ftran
sportation%2Fhealthscape%2Fmeetings%2FI_PLACE3S_
summary.ashx&ei=WmRAUMfLNMPe4QSIoYCgCQ&usg=A
FQjCNGroIqIhKSpnCw_nWnRPzUwHWvvvA).
The web service is available for a fee. I-PLACE3s documentation is very good
because everything is explained in detail and screenshots are included. The
user interface is average because it is not intuitive.
162

INDEX PlanBuilder (Criterion Planners 2012) is an extension for ArcGIS. In


addition, INDEX requires Microsoft Office with Access. The package is being
developed since 1994. It is possible to simulate demographic indicators,
environmental pollution, and tourism routes.

INDEX PLanBuilder use case:

The City of San Antonios Office of Environmental Policy (OEP) engaged


a team of researchers from the College of Architecture, the University
of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA) to explore the implementation of a
Neighborhood Sustainability Assessment tool across the city, and to
use this tool to identify and measure different neighborhoodlevel
sustainability performance indicators for all the citys neighborhoods.
The objectives of the Neighborhood Sustainability Assessment project
aim to build on the principles and objectives included in the SA2020
and Mission Verde plans and to enable the achievement of the
comprehensive vision of San Antonio illustrated in these plans. To
achieve this, the Neighborhood Sustainability Assessment project used
INDEX PlanBuilder software to develop a neighborhood sustainability
assessment model for the city that can be both measured and tracked
overtime. This model is based on existing nationallevel models and
indicators for assessing neighborhood sustainability, and at the same
time is informed by available data and information in different
organizations

within

the

city

(http://www.sanantonio.gov/oep/pdf/NeighborhoodSustainabilityAsses
smentReport.pdf);

Index Planbuilder was used for Tigard (Portland) transportation


analysis

(http://www.tigard-

or.gov/sw_corridor/docs/CAC_Agenda_110907.pdf).

A web-based open-source INDEX tool is also available, but it lacks GIS


functionality. The tool can be used to simulate terrain from 500 acres to 5000
163

square miles. The package includes detailed instructions with example


models. The tool has a standard user interface.

MetroQuest (MetroQuest 2012) is a free web service for researching


population and demographic indicators. The web-based MetroQuest (Denver
2012) consists of three stages. The first stage requires choosing priorities,
which is followed by determining development combinations. Stage three
features results and allows evaluating the future, as well as review the
choices of others.

MetroQuest use case:

After 180 homes were impacted in the 2010 flood the City of New
Braunfels

is

taking

an

innovative

approach

to

stormwater

management. MetroQuest was selected to reach community members


not likely to participate in face-to-face meetings and gather input on
which strategies should be considered in Phase I and adopted in Phase
II (http://www.metroquest.com/#);

The Denver Regional Council Of Governments (DRCOG) fosters


regional cooperation amongst its 56 municipal and 9 county
governments. DRCOG is dedicated to making the metropolitan area a
great place to live. DRCOG is currently using MetroQuest in a multiyear exercise with policy makers, business leaders and the general
public to explore these questions by visualizing alternative future
scenarios (http://www.metroquest.com/#);

The ORMP promotes an integrated approach to managing Hawaii's


natural and cultural resources. After 5 years the state was looking for
feedback

on

the

program

and

suggestions

for

improvments.

MetroQuest was selected due to its ability to present participants with


a number of different mechanisms for providing input into the survey
(http://www.metroquest.com/#);

The Queensland Government hired MetroQuest to create a tool that


could present residents with the ability to create and explore
164

alternative futures for South East Queensland in order that they


become part of the debate. They needed a solution that could be
configured quickly and cost effectively to meet the tight timeline
associated

with

the

Queensland

Growth

Management

Summit

(http://www.metroquest.com/#);

The City of Leduc is growing at over 8% per year and was seeking
ways to engage an unprecedented number of stakeholders to help to
create a positive vision to guide growth and development in the city.
MetroQuest was used to engage the community to collect priorities,
review alternative scenarios, and ultimately reach consensus on a
vision. Using MetroQuest in workshops, online and at a kiosk, the City
successfully engaged about 10% of residents in the creation of a vision
to guide future plans for the city. The resulting vision balances the top
priorities identified by the community (http://www.metroquest.com/#).

The full version includes a budget planner, including parking fees, toll road
fees, gas tax, sales tax etc. The full version is available for a fee.
Documentation for the web-based version of MetroQuest was not available,
but the GUI is intuitive enough to start using the product without it.

GoldSim (GoldSim 2012) is commercial software and a standard user licence


for GoldSim Pro costs 3950 USD. A floating network licence is also available,
which costs 150% of the standard licence. The licence includes a finance
module, a distributed processing module (4 clients), a dashboard module,
technical support for one year, and a one-hour training course. GoldSim first
appeared in 1990 and its first client was the US Department of Energy (Kossik
2012).

GoldSim use case:

GoldSim was selected as the principal simulation model for evaluating


the performance of the Camecos Rabbit Lake Facility (North America).
It was also selected as the simulation model for evaluating site wide
165

water quality conditions for the DeBeers Snap Lake Project (Canada)
(http://www.goldsim.com/Downloads/UserConference/UserConf2002/P
resentations/donald_April2002UsersConferencePresentation.pdf);

Scientists and engineers from the California, CH2M Hill developed and
applied a screening model, dubbed CalLite, to the states Central
Valley. CalLite simulated water conditions in the valley over an 82-year
planning period, taking into consideration

reservoir operations and

storage options and providing a basis for analysis of alternative water


management

strategies

(http://www.goldsim.com/Downloads/Documents/GS_CaseStudies_Cal
Lite.pdf);

Goldsim is used to analyse the Impact of Californias Water


Management

on

Salmon

Populations

(http://www.goldsim.com/Downloads/Documents/GS_CaseStudies_Sal
mon.pdf).

GoldSim is based on the Monte Carlo method. It can be used to simulate


environmental systems (environmental and natural resource management,
mining, water resources, hazardous waste management, and environmental
restoration), technological systems (reliability and risk analysis, bandwidth
analysis, decision-making support for conceptual sketches/projects) and
business systems (strategy planning, risk management, portfolio analysis,
modeling of expenses, project planning and financing). Models are created as
a schematic or an influence diagram, therefore GoldSim is dimension
independent, because users can define the table to be 1D, 2D or 3D (Kossik
2012). The available documentation is detailed and complete. The tool has a
standard user interface.

Rolesia Web (Rolesia 2012) is a web-based macroeconomic simulation, which


has been in development since 2003. Since autumn 2009, it is available as a
web service.
166

The Roleasia web-based tool features an intuitive interface and good


documentation. Rolesia Web also offers a Professional version, which is
available for a fee. The free version is only available for 30 days, after that
the user is deleted. In the paid version, users can delete the simulation and
create a new one. Technical support is also available. Besides Rolesia Web,
there are two desktop versions available: Rolesia Framework and Rolesia
Corporate (Rolesia 2012). Both are commercial products. Rolesia Corporate
can be used by companies and public authorities to educate workers about
how the economy works, including many macroeconomic indicators. The
trainee will learn to manage the economy with a variety of policy instruments
- interest rates, fiscal policy, and other factors that have a significant impact
on the economy - international economic developments, the U.S. economy, oil
prices, as well as national factors such as domestic demographic trends.
Administrators of the corporate version can view the results of the trainees
simulation. With the Rolesia Framework it is possible to modify the influence
of all political factors, as well as algorithms, however customization is not
easy.

IMPLAN (MIG 2012) is an economic assessment modelling system. Users can


easily create models to assess economic changes in their country or
community. With IMPLAN (MIG 2012) it is possible to predict the impact of
tourism, professional sports, resources and agriculture on the economy.
IMPLAN has been in development since 1970 and the latest version was
released in 1999.

IMPLAN use case:

IMPLAN is used to analyze the economic and fiscal impacts of Texas


school district capital spending, the economic impact of the Virginia
Beach City public school system, the exonomic impact of tourism in
Ashland County and also analyze tourism related commerce in Indiana
167

(http://implan.com/v4/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&i
d=717&Itemid=62).

Documentation available on the developers website is average as it is not


user friendly. The IMPLAN user interface is good and convenient. IMPLAN is
used by public authorities and universities, as well as private business
consultants.

Further some more simulation packages of mixed domain areas are discussed
(see Table 6.1).

Tax-PI (REMI 2012) has been developed by REMI, which was founded in
1980. The tool allows researching the fiscal and economic impact from
changes in tax policy.

Tax-PI use case:

REMI Tax-PI is used by the Office of Economic and Demographic


Research (EDR) in Florida. EDR has contracted with Regional Economic
Modeling, Inc. (REMI) for REMI Tax-PI. REMI intends for Tax-PI to be
a state-of-the-art dynamic fiscal and economic impact model for
evaluating the total fiscal and economic effects of tax policy changes.
EDR is working with REMI in the development of Tax-PI to ensure that
the model has the capability of incorporating key elements of Florida's
tax and budget structure. The REMI Tax-PI model is intended to
primarily be a bridge to the completion of the statewide model.
Thereafter,

it

will

be

used

as

an

alternative

model

(http://edr.state.fl.us/Content/statewide-policy-analysistools/index.cfm).

Analysis is based on scenario type analysis what-if. The cost of the product
is not mentioned on the developers website. The user interface is visually
appealing and comfortable. Tax-PI has good documentation because all
168

model creation stages are thoroughly explained and include images. The tool
supports importing and exporting TXT and CSV files. REMI has clients in
Europe, England, and USA.

MIKE FLOOD (Environmental Experts 2012) is flood simulation software that


is comprised of three tools: MIKE 21, MIKE 11 and MIKE Urban. This tool
features functionality to simulate floodplain, street, river and sewer/drainage
systems. It is possible to create 1D, 2D and 3D models using ArcMap and
Analyst add-ons.

MIKE FLOOD use case:

MIKE FLOOD is used to analyse the flood risk of the eastern part of the
Belgian coastal plain, between Zeebrugge and the Dutch border. It is
bordered by the sea to the north, canal embankments to the west and
south and old sea dikes bordering a former tidal inlet (Zwin) to the
east.

It

occupies

an

area

of

75

km2

(http://www.google.lv/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=mike%20flood%20use%20c
ases&source=web&cd=9&cad=rja&ved=0CF4QFjAI&url=http%3A%2F
%2Fwww.vliz.be%2Fimisdocs%2Fpublications%2F141427.pdf&ei=m6Y
_UPPhMo_14QTbt4GAAw&usg=AFQjCNFE2ccN06xSzMYK9UL9Af62XiCx
jQ);

South Florida Water Management District Selects MIKE FLOOD for


Emergency Response Planning. In addition, SFWMD plans to use MIKE
FLOOD as a design tool to evaluate and optimize proposed flood
control

and

mitigation

measures

(http://www.environmental-

expert.com/news/south-florida-water-management-district-selectsmike-flood-for-emergency-response-planning-9239);

The MIKE FLOOD modelling package was used to analyse the impact
of peak flows through the drainage network in Epping Central. The
impact of potential changes to the 100 year ARI rainfall event as a
result of climate change wasassessed in the modelling. Climate change
modelling parameters recommended by Melbourne Water were used in
169

the

modelling

(http://www.whittlesea.vic.gov.au/building-planning-

and-transport/planning-and-development/planning-for-thefuture/planningscheme/amendments/~/media/Files/Building%20Planning%20and%20
Transport/Epping%20Central%20Stormwater%20Management%20Str
ategy.pdf).

MIKE FLOOD is commercial software and full version pricing starts at 42500
Euro (DHI 2012) Mike FLOOD is compatible with ArcMap and allows importing
images in BMP, JPG and GIF formats, as well as GIS SHP and ASCII files
(XYZ). The user interface is average because it is not intuitive. The available
documentation is good.

Table 6.1: Simulation packages of mixed domain areas

Tool

Release
date

Version

Licence

Docum.

Platform

User
interface

Desktop

Windows

Good

Architecture

Economics and finances


REMI
TAX-PI

1.3.101

29.03.2012

Commercial

Good

Environment
Mike
Flood

2011

2011

Commercial

Good

Desktop

Windows

Average

TUFLOW

2011-09

2011

Commercial

Good

Desktop

Windows

Weak

Desktop

Windows

Good

Community facilities
Simio

4.68.8348

7.6.2012

Commercial

Good

MedModel

2011
SP2

2011

Commercial

Good

Desktop

Windows

Good

Enterprise
Dynamics
Airport&
Pedestrian

8.2.5

30.03.2012

Commercial

Good

Desktop

Windows

Good

MassMotion

4.5

13.12.2011

Commercial

Good

Client - Server

Windows

Good

Table 6.1: Simulation packages of mixed domain areas (continuation)

Tool
Tax-PI

Application
Economic, tax

Compatibility
TXT, CSV

Dimensions
1D

Features
Tax policy
Economics

170

policy
MIKE
FLOOD

Flood modelling

ArcMap, Google
Earth

1D, 2D

TUFLOW

Flood modelling

XP-SWMM,
Halcrows ISIS,
MApInfo, ArcGIS,
SAGA, Aquaveo
SMS, waterRIDE,
MS Excel

1D/2D

MedModel

Health centre
/ Hospital
simulation

ProAxtive X
Power tool,

2D/3D

Ms Excel, CSV,
AutoCAD, COM
interface with
other systems.

Enterprise
Dynamics
Airport

Airport
modelling

CAD/DXF, MS
Office, XML,
ADO, ActiveX,
3DS, VRM,

2D/3D

Databases using
the ODBC driver

Enterprise
Dynamics
Pedestrian

Flood
modelling

CAD/DXF, MS
Office, XML,
ADO, ActiveX,
3DS, VRM,

2D/3D

Stadium, airport,
terminal and other
infrastructure modelling
Crowd evacuation
modelling
Infrastructure capacity
analysis
Public event simulation

3D

Stadium, airport,
terminal and other
infrastructure modelling
Crowd evacuation
modelling
Infrastructure capacity
analysis
Public event simulation

Databases using
the ODBC driver

MassMotion

Crowd
modelling

AutoCAD,
MicroStation,
Sketch-Up,
Rhino, Revit, MS
Excel

Demographic indicators
Employment
Floodplains
River floods
City floods
GIS
River floods
City floods
Pipeline network
simulation
Flood tide and tsunami
modelling
GIS
Patient flow simulation
Patient capacity
simulation
Equipment planning and
logistics modelling
Bed management
Site design planning
(laboratories, clinics, xray facilities etc.)
System capacity
Patient demography
limitations
Luggage flow modelling
Passenger flow
simulation
Capacity modelling
Airport transport
modelling
Logistics

Like MIKE FLOOD, TUFLOW (BMT WBM 2012) also is a flood simulation
modelling library. TUFLOW was initially developed in 1990 in collaboration
171

with WBMP Pty Ltd and the University of Queensland. Until 1997, the tool was
used by WBMP Pty Ltd to research embouchure and coastal floods. In 1997, a
link with GIS was developed, therefore flood simulation features were
improved, and the tool began to be used globally.

TUFLOW use case:

Today, TUFLOW is an established and internationally recognised 2D/1D


hydrodynamic computational engine. It is the dominant and most
popular 2D flood modelling software in the UK and Australia and has
been sold in 16 countries. Notably, the rapid spread of TUFLOW was
not driven by any marketing push, but by recommendations from
users. TUFLOWs 1D solution (ESTRY) greatly enhanced to simulate
large pipe networks linked to 2D overland flows. Major studies
completed in Sydney and Melbourne.UFLOW and TUFLOW FV
successfully benchmarked by the UK Environment Agency (EA). UK EA
survey shows that TUFLOW is the preferred 2D flood modelling
software in the UK (http://www.tuflow.com/About.aspx?History);

Bankstown Local Government Area (LGA) covers 77 square kilometres


and is located 20 kilometres south west of Sydney. The LGA is fully
developed with 60,000 dwellings and a population of 189,000, but was
given a mandated target of accommodating an additional 22,000
dwellings by 2031 in the Governments Metropolitan Strategy. To
ensure future development takes flood risk into consideration
Bankstown City Council (BCC) accelerated the flood study and risk
management program for stormwater catchments across its LGA. Fully
integrated

one-dimensional

two-dimensional

hydrodynamic

modelling, using the TUFLOW software, has been utilised for


simulating

stormwater

runoff

(http://www.tuflow.com/Download/Publications/2012.Wallace%20et%
20al.Stormwater%20Flooding%20in%20Bankstown%20%E2%80%93
%20The%20Hidden%20Threat,%20a%20Consistent%20%20Approac
h%20to%20Managing%20%20the%20Risk,%20NSW%20FMA.pdf );
172

The TUFLOW flood and tide simulation software was used for the River
Trent Modelling. The River Trent catchment is the third largest river
catchment in the United Kingdom. It covers an area of 10,452 square
kilometres and is located within the Midlands (Figure 6). Traditionally,
the River Trent was used as the line that separated Northern England
from Southern England. The hydraulic model included the River Trent,
along with 11 of its main tributaries and part of the Humber Estuary,
where the River Trent discharges. The principle urban areas of the
catchment include the West Midlands conurbation, Stoke-on-Trent,
Derby, Leicester and Nottingham. Key structures were incorporated
into the model. The structures included: Cromwell Weir (the upstream
tidal extent of the River Trent, located downstream of Newark-onTrent); major flow obstructions including the numerous motorway and
rail crossings; and the extensive network of defence embankment
structures that exist not only along the River Trent System, but also its
tributaries
(http://www.tuflow.com/Download/Publications/2007.10%20%20Trent_Paper_Final_002.Leister.Vic%20FMC%202007.pdf);

TUFLOW is used to model all forms of flood risk from groundwater,


surface water, sewer and river sources, taking into account future
climate change predictions, and use this as an evidence base to locate
future development primarily in low flood risk areas. The study area
was 481.3km2 and is comprised of four local councils: Dacorum
Borough Council, St Albans City & District Council, Watford Borough
Council and Three Rivers District Council. The outputs from the SFRA
will help prepare sustainable policies for the long-term management of
flood risk and improve existing emergency planning procedures. The
three main catchments within the study area and their respective
watercourses are the Colne (Upper River Colne, Ver, Chess, Gade and
Bulbourne), Lee (Upper River Lee) and Thame (River Thame). Flooding
from the Upper River Colne and Upper River Lee has occurred many
times in the past, including flooding in 2000, 2001 and 2007. It is
173

estimated that over 2,500 properties are at significant risk of flooding,


encompassing around 4% of the total land area. The risk of flooding
posed to properties arises from a number of sources including river,
surface

water,

sewers

and

groundwater

(http://www.halcrow.com/isis/documents/case_studies/ISIS_TUFLOW_
Case_Study_%28LA%20SFRA%29.pdf).

TUFLOW is commercial software and one licence costs 5900 Euro. TUFLOW
requires good programming knowledge and the library itself has no user
interface. TUFLOW is compatible with MapInfo, ArcGIS, ISIS-TUFLOW,
Aquaveo SMS or XPSWMM. TUFLOW has good documentation.

MedModel (ProModel 2012) is used for healthcare centre, hospital, and clinic
simulation. MedModel is optimized for discrete event simulation (MedModel
2012). It is a predictive analytic tool designed specifically for the healthcare
industry to evaluate, plan, and design/redesign the processes, procedures,
and policies of hospitals, clinics, and labs, including patient flow and complex
real-world clinical processes. It can also be used to increase department
productivity and optimized the system, as well as planning future changes.

MedModel use case:

Carilion Clinic constructed a new 220,000 square foot outpatient facility


in Roanoke, Virginia in order to centralize the services of multiple
Carilion affiliated specialty practices as well as education and research
centers. A MedModel solution was developed which modeled the
proposed 1st and 3rd floors designs of the clinic in order to analyze
capacity and resources against the current data on patient flow from all
the

converging

practices

(http://www.promodel.com/pdf/HC-PR-

Carilion%20Clinic.pdf );

A private, not for profit university affiliated health system, comprises


eight hospitals and has affiliations with more than 80 outpatient
practices throughout Florida. It is one of the most respected health
174

organizations in the Southeast with patients from every county in


Florida.

ProModels MedModel application was used to consolidate

hospitals. Their first area of concern was the NICU. The hospital
administration wanted to determine if it was possible for the larger
University hospital to absorb the closing NICU work load. This involved
studying the 55 bed NICU unit at this University hospital to see if it
could take on the patients from the 8 bed NICU at the closing hospital
without

an

increase

in

diverts

(http://www.promodel.com/pdf/Healthcare_ProjectReview_NICU%20C
onsolidation%20Analysis.pdf);

MedModel was used to analyze Miami Valley Hospital

capacity

(http://www.promodel.com/pdf/Project%20Review%20%20Miami%20Valley%20Maternity%20Ward.pdf);

Baystate

is

700-bed

teaching

hospital

located

in

western

Massachusetts that provides level one-trauma services. The Emergency


Department manages over 96,000 patient visits a year through its 32bed unit and a General Treatment Area (GTA) provides fast track
services for non-acute, non-urgent care patients. First the project team
created a dynamic simulation model of the entire ED, with ProModel's
MedModel VAO technology, to accurately replicate the existing
department's operations. After the simulation model was validated and
accepted by key hospital personnel, the project team utilized the model
to identify areas for possible improvement, develop and evaluate
potential solution scenarios, identify capabilities of the current facility
to support effective operations and project the impact of continued
growth

on

the

department

(http://www.promodel.com/pdf/Project%20Review%20%20Baystate%20ED.pdf).

MedModel is commercial software, which, in 2011, cost 17945 USD. A


network licence sold for 19885 USD (ProModel-2 2012). The licence includes
175

24 hour support and software updates for the first year. The product has a
good user interface and documentation. Paid courses are available. MedModel
is used by the Carolina (Carilion) Heath Centre, the Dana Farber Harvard
Cancer centre, the American Red Cross, Miami hospital etc.

Enterprise Dynamics (ED) (Incontrol 2012) is object-oriented discrete event


simulation software. ED is commercial software but pricing is not available on
the developers website. Several versions are available: ED Platform
Developer, ED Platform Builder, and ED Platform Runtime. ED has an open
structure and experienced users can create new objects using ED Platform
Developer. The product utilizes its own 4DScript programming language. ED
being and open structure, users can develop their own packages, but several
are also available on the product website:

ED Logistics manufacturing, material processing and


distribution;
ED Airport airports and carriers;
ED Educational for educational purposes, consisting of ED
logistics and several scenarios;
ED Production simulation of manufacturing processes;
ED Pedestrian Dynamics pedestrian flow simulation;
ED Transport transport and logistics modelling.

Enterprise Dynamics Airport (ED Airport) (Incontrol 2012) is a powerful,


integrated airport analysis package, which aids in the analysing and planning
of airport operations. It offers a quantitative view of airport processes and
their impact on each other. It helps balancing airport, airline, and passenger
operations as well as allows capacity testing.

Enterprise Dynamics Airport use case:

Enterprise Dynamics Airport was used for Brisbane Airport, situated in


South East Queensland is the third largest in Australia (on passenger
numbers). For both terminal buildings the current and a future
situation have been modeled. The models give valuable insights in the
passenger flows throughout the terminal buildings. They enable the
176

user to analyze bottlenecks, identify potential improvements and to


perform what-if analysis and thus support the decision making process
on

operational,

tactical

or

strategic

level

(http://www.incontrolsim.com/en/ed-airport/brisbane-airportpassenger-flow-simulation.html);

Enterprise Dynamics Airport was used for Lelystad Airport, the biggest
general aviation airport in the Netherlands. Incontrol developed a
simulation model for this scenario of 2 million passengers a year. The
model included all passenger related processes in the terminal building
like check-in, security and baggage reclaim. Furthermore the model
contained airside infrastructure like the runway, taxiway and ramps.
The landside area with the car park and public transport were
simulated as well. In short, the model gave insight in the complete
passenger flow from the arrival at the airport until take-off and from
landing

until

departure

by

car

or

by

bus

(http://www.incontrolsim.com/en/ed-airport/simulation-lelystadairport.html);

Enterprise Dynamics Airport was also used for Amsterdam Airport


Schiphol,
facilaties

one of the largest European airport hubs, to analyze


capacity

(http://www.incontrolsim.com/en/ed-airport/gate-

capacity-manager.html

and

http://www.incontrolsim.com/en/ed-

airport/simbax.html).

ED Pedestrian (Incontrol 2012) is a comprehensive crowd simulation package.


It is used to determine performance and security in several areas, for
example, stadiums, airports, public transportation terminals, grand events,
and city planning. It also includes functionality to simulate crowd evacuation
scenarios.

Enterprise Dynamics Pedestrian use case:

Incontrol Enterprise Dynamics Pedestrian simulations is used to


simulante Amsterdam Central station. Amsterdam Central is a
177

monumental railway station, dating from 1889. This Stations Island is


one of three major transfer hubs in the Netherlands and connects
railways, subway system, trams, busses, ferries, cars, bikers and
pedestrians. The Pedestrian Dynamics models represent the complete
infrastructure and the traffic flows of the public transfer and pedestrian
movements at the Stations Island, both inside and outside the
buildings. Therefore the timetables of the different means of transport
(trains, subway and tram), the occupancy of the vehicles and the
transfer relations are incorporated in the models in detail. Passengers
are modeled as individual entities that move through the model, from
the assigned origin to the destination at the Stations Island
(http://www.incontrolsim.com/en/pedestrian-dynamics/simulation-oftransfer-at-stations-island-amsterdam.html);

One of the main reasons for a complete new public transfer terminal in
Utrecht is the expectation that the number of passengers handled by
Utrecht Central Station will double in the next twenty years to about
100 million passengers per year. A substantial share of these
passengers use bikes for the transport to or from the Station Area. As
a result of the expected growth, extra bicycle storage capacity is
required in an area that is already overcrowded with bikes. To fulfill
this requirement, Project Organization Station Area (POS), which is
responsible for the development of the Station Area on behalf of the
City of Utrecht, and ProRail, the organization responsible for railway
capacity and accessibility of stations in the Netherlands, want to use
multi-level bicycle storage buildings. Two different bicycle storage
buildings are to be developed: "Bike Storage West" and the "Bike Flat".
Even in the Netherlands bicycle storage buildings of the proposed
dimensions, are not yet developed before. Therefore it is proposed to
use simulation for testing the designs of Bike Storage West and Bike
Flat. POS and ProRail asked Incontrol to develop a tool that can be
used to model and evaluate design variants and to run experiments to
detect

possible

design

flaws
178

(http://www.incontrolsim.com/en/pedestrian-dynamics/multi-levelbicycle-storage-building.html);

Enterprise Dynamics Pedestrian is used to simulate the flow of visitors


through the the Dutch pavilion, which is designed by architect/artist
John

Krmeling,

is

called

Happy

Street

(http://www.incontrolsim.com/en/pedestrian-dynamics/dutchpavilion.html);

Enterprise Dynamics Pedestrian is used to simulate and analyze the


flow of visitors in the soccer stadium of PSC Eindhoven (Netherlands)
(http://www.incontrolsim.com/en/pedestrian-dynamics/psvstadium.html).

The tool features good and extensive documentation. The user interface is
not standard but can be considered good, because it is convenient. The
product can be used on a workstation, as well as over a local network and on
the web.

MassMotion (Oasys 2012) is an agent-based micro-simulation tool and a


workstation licence costs 20000 . If the tool is used on a network, the
licence fee increases to 30000 . MassMotion can be used to simulate transit
operations, special events, evacuation situations, stations, airport terminals
(including vehicles, passenger flow and processing, luggage processing),
healthcare, office towers and arenas/stadiums (Oasys 2012). The analysis tool
allows determining how long it takes people to get from one point to another,
as well as examine door flow capacity, stairs and escalator capacity, and
comfort rating in various parts of the model at different times.

MassMotion use case:

MassMotion was used in the Toronto station renovation (Oasys 2012).


The historical building was transformed into a modern transit hub,
which can serve up to 500,000 people a day (http://www.oasys179

software.com/casestudies/casestudy/union_station_pedestrian_plannin
g_study_toronto);

MassMotion was used for a new Transbay Terminal design in San


Francisco. The new terminal will be a multi-modal transit hub designed
to serve commuter rail, commuter bus, local bus, and eventually high
speed rail passengers in downtown San Francisco. The variety of
modes, degree of interchange between modes, and density of the
surrounding urban fabric required an analysis approach that would
consider the interaction of people with disparate destinations and
patterns of movement within a complex environment. MassMotion
models were constructed to assist the design team in analyzing the
proposed layout of the station. The intended use of the model was to
predict: capacity of platforms and vertical circulation,

demand on

internal circulation routes and Neighbourhood dispersion patterns


(http://www.oasyssoftware.com/casestudies/casestudy/transbay_terminal);

MassMotion was used for evacuation simulation in shopping centre in


Ireland. MassMotion was used to demonstrate to the local approving
authorities that when one exit was discounted due to fire the escape
time from the unit was dictated by the compliant escape width rather
than the non-compliant travel distance: occupants will be queuing
longer than the time taken to travel to the exit (http://www.oasyssoftware.com/casestudies/casestudy/advanced_evacuation_modelling_
using_massmotion).

Analysis data can be displayed graphically. Before installing MassMotion,


Autodesk Softimage must be installed. MassMotion has a good user interface
and features good and detailed documentation.

6.3 Policy modelling software European project platforms


There have been previous efforts to develop generic (suitable for different
180

locations) policy modeling tools under the framework of European funded


projects. Their aim and domain may differ, but it is worth looking at them.
Practically all of them are based on land-use modeling, but other domains use
the information prepared at LUCC level.
6.3.1 ET2050
The ESPON (European Observation Network for Territorial Development and
Cohesion) ET2050 project aims to create a vision on the long term territorial
development in Europe.
For this objective the project will develop a number of exploratory scenarios
for 2030 and 2050 around the themes Europe of cities, Europe of flows,
and Europe of regions. In a second step, the project will develop a territorial
vision of how Europe could function in 2050, including targets and pathways
to achieve this vision.
These exploratory scenarios and territorial visions will be developed in a
number

of

workshops

with

stakeholders

from

different

disciplines.

Subsequently a number of models will be used to quantify these results. RIKS


(Research Institute for Knowledge Systems, Ltd) will participate in the
scenario development stages of the project, and in the quantification of these
scenarios. For the latter RIKS will apply the Metronamica land use model for
the complete EU-27.
Several models will be used in this project in the field of demography,
regional economy, transport, and land-use. The land use domain will be
covered using Metronamica software. An integrated dynamic system SASI will
assist in establishing links between the other models (ESPON 2012). Results
from transportation, demographic and economic models, will be used as input
into Metronamica model.
The projects lifetime is June 2011 March 2015, therefore no real results
regarding the policy modeling have not been achieved. For more information,
latest news and deliverables see http://www.et2050.eu.
181

6.3.2 MOLAND
The aim of MOLAND is to provide a spatial planning software tool that can be
used for assessing, monitoring and modeling the development of urban and
regional environments.
The project was initiated in 1998 (under the name of MURBANDY
Monitoring Urban Dynamics) with the objective to monitor the developments
of urban areas and identify trends at the European scale. The work includes
the computation of indicators and the assessment of the impact of
anthropogenic stress factors (with a focus on expanding settlements,
transport and tourism) in and around urban areas, and along development
corridors. Since 2004, MOLAND is contributing to the evaluation and analysis
of impact of extreme weather events, in the frame of research on adaptation
strategies to cope with climate change.

The main feature of the project is to allow quantitative and qualitative


comparisons at pan-European level, among areas subject to transformation
due to policy intervention. A further characteristic is to adopt a methodology
that simultaneously addresses the EU perspective on the one hand, and the
regional / local dimension on the other. Indeed, during the execution of the
project, a number of collaborations have been set up with relevant regional
and local institutions, which have concretely declared interest in the adopted
approach (JRC 2008).

The MOLAND urban growth modelling software tool also was developed by
the company RIKS (Research Institute for Knowledge Systems, Ltd). The
model, which is based on cellular automata, takes as input different types of
spatially referenced digital data:

Land use maps, showing the distribution of land use types in the area
of interest. These maps are derived from the MOLAND reference and
historical land use databases.
Suitability maps, showing the inherent suitability of the area of interest
for different land use types. These maps are created using an overlay
182

analysis of maps of various physical, environmental and institutional


factors.
Zoning maps, showing the zoning status (i.e. legal constraints) for
various land uses of the area of interest. These maps are created from
existing planning maps (e.g. master plans, zoning plans, designated
areas, protected areas, historic sites, natural reserves, land
ownership).
Accessibility maps, showing the accessibility to transportation networks
for the area of interest. These maps are computed from the MOLAND
land use and transportation network databases, based on the
importance of access to transport networks for the various land uses.
Socio-economic data for the main administrative regions of the area of
interest, comprising demographic statistics (i.e. population and
income), and data on production and employment for the four main
economic sectors (i.e. agriculture, industry, commerce, and services).

For more information about the technical features of the model, see
http://moland.jrc.ec.europa.eu/technical_tools/model/moland_model.htm The core of the modeling framework consists of dynamic spatial models that
operate at both the micro and macro-geographical levels. At the macro level,
the

modeling

framework

integrates

several

component

sub-models,

representing the natural, social, and economic sub-systems typifying the area
studied. These are all linked to each other in a network of mutual reciprocal
influence. At the micro level, cellular automata (CA)-based models determine
the fate of individual parcels of land based on their individual institutional and
environmental characteristics as well as on the type of activities in their
neighborhoods (Lavalle and Barredo 2004).
The project partner responsible for the model creation indicate that the goal
of developing a generic model one that will be applicable to essentially any
European city implies the rather strong assumption that at some level cities
are fundamentally similar, evolving by the same processes. Especially in the
European context, where cities grow out of, and express, a wide variety of
cultural, economic, and historical contexts, this seems a bold hypothesis. See
more on http://www.riks.nl/projects/MOLAND .
Brennan points out to faces considerable difficulty as a tool to forecast
183

biodiversity change over time. The models minimum spatial resolution is too
crude to be considered homogenous and the list of land use classes too few
to accurately describe the region in a useful ecological context (Brennan and
Twumasi 2008).
6.3.3 BRIDGE
The FP7 project BRIDGE (sustainaBle uRban plannIng Decision support
accountinG for urban mEtabolism) is a joint effort of 14 European
organizations aiming at incorporating sustainability aspects in urban planning
processes, accounting for some well recognized relations between urban
metabolism and urban structure.
BRIDGE focuses on the following components of urban metabolism:

Energy;
Water;
Carbon;
Air pollutants.

BRIDGE was launched in 2008 in order to assist urban planners to present


and evaluate planning alternatives towards a sustainable city. The innovation
of BRIDGE is the development of decision support system software, which can
assist urban planners in decision-making.

The modeling approach within BRIDGE integrates mix of models from large to
local scale:

Regional climate model and meteorological models;


Urban canopy models to estimate heat island effect, inhabitants
comfort, and building energy indexes;
Air quality models and hydrological models;
Computational fluid dynamics;
Land use dynamics cellular automata to determine the spatial
distribution of an aggregate land use demand.

The BRIDGE project integrates key environmental and socio-economic


considerations

into

urban

planning

through

Strategic

Environmental

Assessment. The BRIDGE evaluates how planning alternatives can modify the
184

physical flows of the above urban metabolism components. A Multi-Criteria


Decision Making approach has been adopted in the BRIDGE. To cope with the
complexity of urban metabolism issues, the indicators measure the intensity
of the interactions among the different elements in the system and its
environment. The objectives are related to the fluxes of energy, water,
carbon, and pollutants in the case studies. The evaluation of the performance
of each alternative is done in accordance with the assigned weights for each
criterion to measure the performance of individual alternatives (Lietzke et al
2011).
Five European cities have been selected as BRIDGE case studies: a high
latitude with rapid urbanization city that requires a substantial amount of
energy for heating (Helsinki, Finland); a low latitude Mediterranean city that
requires a substantial amount of energy for cooling (Athens, Greece); a
representative

European

megacity

(London,

United

Kingdom);

representative European old city with substantial cultural heritage (Firenze,


Italy) and a representative Eastern European city with dynamic planning
process reflecting the economical, social, and political changes held within last
two decades (Gliwice, Poland) (http://www.bridge-fp7.eu/).
BRIDGE decision support system uses multi criteria evaluation and cellular
automata techniques. The BRIDGE framework is composed of the following
software modules:

The GIS that is used to integrate all datasets, analyze the various
spatial entities, prepare the data for the models, store the results and
then visualize them;
The on-line models, which will be used to simulate the results of
various actions;
The interfaces between the GIS and on-line models;
The communication modules between the GIS and the off-line
models, meaning the integration of the off-line models outputs;
The impact assessment methodologies for evaluating the
environmental and socio-economic impacts of urban metabolism;
The Multi-Criteria Evaluation module, which will have the role of the
middleware;
The GUI, which integrates all other components in one integrated
(Diamantakis 2010).
185

6.3.4 TESS
Another pan-European initiative for decision support is TESS project. TESS
stands for Transactional Environmental Support System, thus it is only partly
connected with land- use planning domain. The project started in October
2008 and continued for almost 3 years.
TESS's strategic objective is to design a decision support system software
related to environment and land use that will enable policy makers to
integrate knowledge from the regional and local level into the decision making
process, while also encouraging local people to maintain and restore
biodiversity ecosystem services. Among the specific objectives was also to
integrate all models and information and consolidate the projects results in
the design of a GIS-based system to support transaction of environmental
information for all these assessments and decision support at central & local
levels (TESS 2011).
TESS idea is to assist policy makers to integrate knowledge from the EU,
national, regional and local level into the decision making process while also
encouraging local people to maintain and restore biodiversity ecosystem
services. To achieve this, a transactional environmental decision support
system was designed, linking central policy planning to local livelihoods. The
results are included in the deliverables of the project. More information on
this project and involved partners can be found on its website www.tessproject.eu.

6.3.5 FIRMA
Another project that is not directly aimed at land-use, but is still connected to
territorial planning and development is FIRMA.
FIRMA aimed to improve water resource planning through the use of multiagent models that integrate physical, hydrological, cognitive, social and
economic aspects of water resource management.
186

The Project was supported by European Union's FP5 for Research and
Development, and by the European Commission as part of its Key Action on
Sustainable Management and Quality of Water program.
Among the Projects specific objectives were to promote co-operation between
water resource decision makers and experts in water resource management
and in agent-based simulation and to develop agent-based models for
application to issues of water treatment, scarcity and planning (FIRMA 2012).
For

more

information

on

the

results

of

this

project,

see

http://cfpm.org/firma/index.html.

6.4 Conclusions:

Domain

oriented

policy

simulation

software packages
Part 6 included a review of land-use modeling development, combined
domains simulation packages, different approaches and descriptions of more
than 20 applications. It also gives insight into some case-studies that involve
a European level modeling analysis and/or building of generic models. The
Appendix 1 gives a full list of considered models, but this review concentrates
on six of them UrbanSim, Metronamica, WhatIf?, FEARLUS, SLEUTH,
LandUse Scanner (see Annex 2).

Considering all gathered information the choice among these models in favor
of only one of them is very difficult, as each of them has its strengths and
well as limitations. For example, the WhatIf? model is relatively easy to use,
but it offers limited usability, while SLEUTH is a rather powerful tool, but not
for users without programming skills. UrbanSim is free of charge, but
Metronamica has been chosen to be used at European level, but the
framework and approach it is already 20 years old.
Some common conclusions about these models:

The amount of knowledge necessary to use these models varies,


moreover, each of the described models demands a different amount
and type of knowledge but overall the land-use modeling requires
187

certain understanding not only of regional development, planning and


policy elaboration, but also about spatial data, GIS functionality,
statistical data, modeling itself;
Land-use modeling includes many variables that differ among models.
For the purposes of this project, first of all it is necessary to define
precise input/output data that are expected to be modeled taking into
consideration not only the ideal model as it should be, but also the
target users of the eventual modeling tool and their knowledge. For
the model to be truly generic, some compromise among individual
needs will be necessary;
As there is no precise technical specification for the model (in terms of
input/output file types, modeling scale, model permeability, etc.) it
would be thoughtful to choose the model that has available support
and/or extensive documentation;
Models are developed for different purposes, the model to be chosen
for this project should itself aim at supporting policy makers. A good
indication of this is the precious experience with the model in practical
use;
Considering the differences among models, previous experience with
the model in international environment should be considered as
beneficial.

Additional specific characteristics of the model to be used in this project are


mentioned below. They are sorted accordingly the structure used in the
descriptions of the models.

Preferred characteristics of the model:

To make the modeling process less complicated, several data


formats should be supported;
Special attention should be paid to the availability of chosen
data, so that the data can be gathered with no serious
problems and used without extensive preparation;
Spatial resolution should be customizable for user needs.

Preferred characteristics regarding the software:

The operating system is not crucial, but OS in-dependency may


be considered beneficial;
Graphical interface would make the model more
unexperienced-user-friendly;
Optional geo-spatial output would be beneficial;
The model should not be dependent on other software (GIS,
statistical packages, etc.);
188

The model should be able to communicate and exchange data


with other models in case it is necessary, i.e. has access to SQL
and spatial data bases, ensure web service based on clientserver approach;
Ensure add-ons programming in wide used programming
languages like Java etc.;
Must allow the solutions deploying on the Future Internet or on
the Cloud at least as infrastructure.

Preferred characteristics regarding the modeling process:

Temporal resolution should be customizable and the preferred


time step is 1 year;
Temporal extent should not be limited and user should be able
to define how many years to model in the future;
The model should support multi-scale to account for the
hierarchical organization of land-use systems;
The model should be flexible in terms of factors, i.e. the user
may be able to incorporate stricter policies or natural factors
where different rules apply.

For the purposes of the first stage of the FUPOL project, based on these
conclusions, two models would be suitable for introduction the Metronamica
(based on Geonamica framework) model and UrbanSim. Direct use of the
packages discussed in part 6 as a basis for the FUPOL Simulator is
problematic, because it does not meet the suitable simulation software
requirements. For transport applications analysis SUMO or Vissim would be
used, but for combined domains some ideas of MetroQuest or I-PLACE3s
could be adapted. The assessment of the packages was validated by the
master level students group Sociotechnical Systems Modelling of Vidzeme
University of Applied Sciences. The final decision should be made based on
the model specifications developed in WP2, available financial as well as
human and time resources.

7 Recommendations
The aim of the document is implementing the analysis of the set of existing
simulation tools and their applications in order to select the basic platform for
189

FUPOL Simulator respecting application domains selected by the project


partners.
The FUPOL application domains are formulated in D2.1, however, to diminish
potential mistakes the validation of technical requirements and domains
selected before was done in D4.1. The analysis approved that user
requirements are versatile and distinctive that determines designing of twolevel FUPOL Simulator working on micro and macro levels in order to avoid of
bottlenecks in further development. Micro level will be used for ABM
realization, but macro level will be applied for longer forecasting and will be
based on system dynamics (SD) tools. That requests for data exchange and
interaction between ABM and SD models. Perhaps that simulation task would
be implementation as the queue of some different simulation models
deployed in repositories, therefore actual are requirement for distributed
simulation environment and models routing. Important factor is reasonable
scalability and performance of simulation.
FUPOL Simulator must be the joint part of FUPOL software and must interact
with FUPOL Core platform, in order to ensure data exchange and valuable
visualisation of the simulation results. FUPOL Simulator must provide
collaboration with open source GIS GeoServer and POStGIS spatial database
defined in WP3 as basic platform for spatial data processing. The
requirements mentioned above asking for WFS/WMS and other web services,
XML data use and SQL requests implementation.
FUPO Simulator must have a convenient GUI and functionally understandable
simulation desktop not only for implementation of input-output operations,
but also for simulation initialization, calibration and control. It is reasonable
that some popular problem oriented languages such as Java are used.
It is strongly recommended that FUPOL Simulator is an open source freeware
solution ensuring web access that would extend the FUPOL customers
network and diminish user contribution. The simulation tool must be open and
adaptable to different operating environments.

190

In order to justify the selection of FUPOL Simulator platform the set of


generic simulation tools and domain oriented simulation packages were
analysed in conformity with D4.1 part 3 and 4 prerequisites.
More than 32 generic simulation software tools have been assessed, but more
detailed attention was paid to the software, which is more probable to being
used in the FUPOL project Were reviewed 3 systems dynamic simulation (SD)
tools (Stella, Vensim, Powersim), 3 discrete-event (DEVS) simulation
packages (ExtendSim, Arena, Simul8), 8 agent-based (ABM) software
packages (AgentSheets, AntLogic, Ascape, NetLogo, StarLogo, MadKit, RePast
Symphony, Mason), 13 cellular automatons (CA) (DUEM, Golly, Mcell,
WinLife32, Cellab, CASim, FCAS, JCASIM, Life32, Cage, CADemo, Rabbit, Five
CA), 3 micro analytic solutions (VisSim, LISA+, EUROMOD) and 2 tools
belonged to multi level simulation and learning, and evolutionary simulation
directions (MIMOSE, JGAP). It must be mentioned that micro analytical
simulation tools cannot be considered generic, since these mostly already
have a predefined problem orientation.
Part 6 is comprised of a review of land-use modeling tools, combined domain
simulation packages, different approaches and descriptions for more than 20
applications, int.al European level modeling projects. Appendix 1 gives a
wider list of considered models, but reviews are concentrated on six of them
UrbanSim, Metronamica, WhatIf?, FEARLUS, SLEUTH, LandUse Scanner
(see Annex 2).
The analysis mentioned above approved that Repast Symphony generic
simulation tool would be useable and recommendable for ABM simulation, but
STELLA or some prototype could be selected for implementing system
dynamics simulation tasks. Unfortunately, the review of domain oriented
simulation packages revealed that the use of some specific package as the
basis for the FUPOL Simulator is problematic, because none fit the
requirements of parts 3 and 4.

191

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9 Annex 1: List of considered land-use models


More information and comparative conclusions about most of these models
can be found in Fang and Soon (2006), Ravulaparthy and Goulias (2011), and
Environmental Protection Agency (2000).

214

215

216

217

218

219

220

221

222

223

224

225

10 Annex 2: Comparative summary tables of Landuse simulators


Table 10.1: Target user group and availability/existence of model support

Model

Target user group

Written
documenttation

Web-site

UrbanSim

Planners (land use,


transportation,
environmental),
community groups

Metronamica

Planners, policy makers,

Some

WhatIf?

Nontechnical community
planning participants

Some

No
information

Extensive

FEARLUS

Training

Technical
expertise needed

Some

Land Use Scanner

Planners, academia,
students

No (student
assignment
available)

No

Some/extensive

SLEUTH

Academic and government


researchers, planner

Yes

Yes

No

Extensive

Table 10.2: Expenses connected with models

Model

Purchase cost

Operating cost

Maintenance cost

Training costs

UrbanSim

No cost

No information

No information

No information

Metronamica

15,000

No information

2,000 per year

4,000- 10,000

WhatIf?

$1,000/User
(academic licencePrice $100/User)

No cost

No cost

Assistance with issues


that are not included
in the normal support
programs may be
provided on an extrafree, consulting basis
by What if?, Inc. or by
other cooperating

226

firms.
FEARLUS

No cost

No information

No information

No information

Land Use Scanner

No information

No information

No information

No information

SLEUTH

No cost

No information

No information

No information

Program
compiler
needed?

Graphic interface

GIS capability
(Yes/No)

Table 10.3: Software comparative table

OS

(Yes/No)

UrbanSim

Windows, Linux

No

Yes

Yes

Metronamica

Windows

No

Yes

Yes

WhatIf?

Windows

No

Yes

Yes

FEARLUS

Windows, Linux

Yes

Yes

No

Land Use Scanner

Windows

No

Yes

No information

SLEUTH

Unix

Yes,gnu C
compiler (gcc)

No

No information

227

11 Annex 3: Transport policy simulation packages


Table 11.1: Transport policy simulation tools

Tool

Version

Release
date

Licence

Docum.

SUMO

0.15

03.2012

Open-source

Good

Desktop

Windows,
Linux,
MAC OS

Average

Quadstone
Paramics

6.8

07.2011

Commercial

Good

Desktop and
distributed
processing

Windows

Good

Architecture Platform

Windows,
Linux,
Mac OS
Windows,
Linux,
Ubuntu,
MAC OS

GUI

Treibers
Microsimulation
of Road Traffic

1.0

06.2011

Open-source

Good

Desktop

Aimsun

7.0.1

05.2012

Commercial

Good

Desktop and
distributed
processing

06.2011

Commercial

Good

Desktop

Windows

Good

6.2

12.2010

Commercial

Good

Desktop

Windows

Average

Weak

Good

Trafficware
SimTraffic
TSIS-CORSIM
SimWalk
Transport
Dynameq

4.0

03.2012

Commercial

Good

Desktop

Windows

Good

2.5.3

01.2012

Commercial

Good

Desktop

Good

Emme

3.4.1

07.2011

Commercial

Good

Desktop

CUBE Dynasim
TransModeler
VISSIM

4.0.4
2,6
5.40

2012
06.2010
2011

Commercial
Commercial
Commercial

Good
Good
Good

TransCad

5.3

11.2009

Commercial

Good

Windows

Good

VISUM

12

2011

Commercial

Good

Desktop
Desktop
Desktop
Desktop and
distributed
processing
Desktop and
distributed
processing

Windows
Windows,
Linux,
Solaris
Windows
Windows
Windows

Windows

Good

SPLATCHE 2

2.0.1

01.2012

Free

Good

Desktop

CommunityViz

42
ROI 3.1
un
Scenario
Builder
2.15
2.68

2012

Commercial

Good

Desktop

Windows,
Linux
Windows

2012

Free

Good

Desktop

Windows

Good

02.2012

Free

Good

Desktop

Windows

Good

Free

Good

Web service

Any

Average

Envision
Tomorrow
Uplan
3

I-PLACE s

228

Good
Good
Good
Good

Average
Good

INDEX
PlanBuilder

9.3

2011

Commercial

Good

Desktop

Windows

Good

MetroQuest

Free

Web service

Any

Good

GoldSim

10.5
SP2

09.2011

Commercial

Good

Desktop and
distributed
processing

Windows

Good

Rolesia Web

27

07.2011

Free and
Commercial

Good

Web service

Any

Good

IMPLAN

1999

Commercial

Average

Desktop

Windows

Good

229

Tool
SUMO

Modelling
type
Microscopic

Application
Traffic and
pedestrian
flow
modelling,
noise and
environment
pollution
modelling,
fuel
consumption
modelling,
travel
planning

Compatibility
VISUM, Vissim,

Dimensions
2D

Features
Traffic lights

OSM, MATsim,
RoboCup,

Vehicles private, public, emergency or


VIP

openDRIVE, XML and


vector data files
(.shp),
OpenStreetMap

Road signs speed limit signs


Alternative route designation
Lanes and lane changing
Pedestrian flow modelling
Travel planning
Emission modelling -CO2, CO, PMx, NOx,
HC
Noise and fuel consumption modelling
GIS possible to import OpenStreetMap
maps

Quadstone
Paramics

Microscopic

Traffic and
pedestrian
flow
modelling,
environment

Supports the following


formats:
MrSID, JPEG2000,
GeoTIFF, ECW, DXF,
SHP, MIF/MID, DGN,

2D/3D

Public transportation buses, taxis,


trains, harbour operations, airport
operations
Pedestrian flow modelling
230

pollution
modelling,
fuel
consumption
modelling

Infrastructure public transport


terminals

TIGER/Line;
Supports data files
from Emme/2,
Mapinfo, ESRI,
Synchro, Corsim,
Cube/TP+/Viper,
ASCII, CSV;

Emission modelling CO, CO2, NOx,


PMx, HC
Fuel consumption modelling
Parking signs

UTC connection for


SCATS, SCOOT, VS+;

Toll roads with payment machines


Speed limit signs

GIS connection with


ESRI and Mapinfo.

Complex intersection simulation,


including overpasses

Supports integration
with Autodesk 3ds
Max Design Civil View,
Google 3D and
SketchUp.

Traffic lights (can be adjusted)


GIS
64 different driving styles
Up to 32 lanes in one direction
32 000 zones and/or parking spaces
Emergency analysis using the security
assessment model (SSAM) [39]

Treibers
Microscopic
Microsimulation

Traffic flow

2D

Available road types roundabout,

231

of Road Traffic

modelling

driving up a hill, overpasses


Traffic lights
Speed limits
Number of heavy vehicles on the road
The impact on traffic flow from closing
one lane

Aimsun

Microscopic
Mesoscopic
Hybrid

Traffic and
CONTRAM, CUBE,
pedestrian
Emme, MOVA,
flow modelling Paramics, Saturn,
SCANeR, SCATS,
SCOOT, Synchro,
TRANSYT, Utopia,
VERSIT+micro,
VISSIM, VISUM,
Voyager, VS-Plus,

2D/3D

Toll roads
Security analysis
Public transportation and stops
Interaction of pedestrians and traffic
GIS

ArcView, MapInfo, 3ds


Max

Trafficware
SimTraffic

Microscopic

Traffic and
pedestrian
flow
modelling,

Possible to import
Bing maps

Environment analysis

Speed limit simulation

2D/3D

Density and load reports


Intersections with traffic lights

232

environment
pollution
modelling.

Queue length
Speed limits
Travel time and distance
Fuel consumption modelling
Emission modelling HC, CO, NOx
Possible to create a video of the model
and play it on any computer
Easy 2D model conversion to 3D

TSIS-CORSIM

Microscopic

Traffic flow
modelling

HCS

2D

Motorway and street crossings


Trafiic lights with switching times
Emergency transportation
Adding and removing motorway lanes
Bus stops, bus routes, taxis
Two-lane motorways
Incident detection and management
Queue forming research
233

Toll booths (toll roads) and truc weighing


stations
SimWalk

Microscopic

Pedestrian
OpenTrack;
flow modelling
Import CAD files
(.dxf);

2D/3D

Passenger density maps


Boarding/exiting analysis
Connected transportation times and
delays
Passenger count and flow speed
Station and platform analysis
Passenger paths and route choice
Object capacity (escalators, stairs,
elevators)
Queue times and efficiency

Dynameq

Mesoscopic

Traffic flow
modelling,
environment
pollution
modelling.

Emme

2D

Public transportation buses, school


buses
Private transportation motocycles, cars,
trucks
Graphs
Traffic lights
Road planning, closing lanes or
234

overpasses
Choices for route change
Emission modelling
GIS
CUBE Dynasim

Microscopic

Traffic and
Cube Voyager,
pedestrian
UTOPIA;
flow modelling
Supports vector files
in DFX format;
BMP, JPEG, GIF

2D/3D

Rondabouts
Car parking on the side of the road
Bus terminals and stops
Parking spaces
Motorcycle lanes
Pedestrian flow modelling
Toll roads with toll booths
Lane closing during street repairs
Overpasses
Taxi parking
Two turning lanes
U-turns

235

Evacuation plans
Truck terminals
Traffic light systems
Several street signs
Modelling of accidents and their impact
on traffic flow
TransModeler

Microscopic
Mesoscopic
Macroscopic
Hybrid

Traffic flow
modelling;

TransCAD
Corsim
SimTraffic

2D/3D

Motorway and street network modelling


with driver behaviour models
Overpasses
Roundabout modelling
Bus lanes and toll roads
Evacuation models and scenarios (natural
disasters, toxic gas leaks and other
emergency situations)
Parking on the side of the road
Traffic lights including predetermined
times
Speed limit signs and their impact on
traffic flow

236

Public transportation, routes and stops


GIS
VISSIM

Microscopic

Traffic and
AMPEL (Traffic light
pedestrian
planning system);
flow modelling Synchro, TEAPAC,
Transyt, Scoot,
PCmova, EMME,
TranPlan, Cube etc.
ARCGIS and NAVTEQ

2D/3D

Lane changes
Parralel parking
Motorways
Toll road analysis
Environment
Pedestrian modelling in any environment,
including evacuation planning
Airport open and controllable flow
analysis
Railroad and bus transit research
Public transportation and passenger
exchange
Multiple-lane highways, intersections
Complex intersections with or without
traffic lights
Motorcycle lanes, motorcycles and

237

bicyclists
Lane division and overtaking (between
motorcycles and cars)
Public transport stops and terminals
Pedestrian queues
Railroads
Data analysis travel time, speed, queue
length, amount
GIS
Emme

Macroscopic Traffic and


tourism route
modelling,
environment
pollution
modelling

ArcGIS

2D

Private transportation route and road


analysis
public transportation route and strategy
analysis
Various calculators and expense matrices
Route expenses (provides calculating
vehicle operation expenses, CO2 emission
taxes etc.)
GIS

Ptv visum

Macroscopic Tourism route


planning,

ArcGIS, MS Office

2D/3D

Transport systems, traffic zones, traffic


238

Microscopic

traffic flow
modelling.

lights and parking spaces


Private transportation cars, bicycles
Public transportation buses, trains
Pedestrian modelling
Travel planning number of routes,
route demand and destinations
Result matrices, graphical analysis and
diagrams
GIS

TransCAD

Macroscopic Tourism route


planning,
traffic flow
modelling.

TP+, EMME/2, TRIPS,


QRSII, TMODEL,
TRANPLAN ASCII
formats; AutoCAD
DXF, ESRI ArcView,
Intergraph DGN,
Mapinfo MIF/MID,
GeoTIff, MS Access,
Excel, Oracle, ODBC,
Google Earth satellite
images, JPEG, BMP,
etc.

2D/3D

Travel planning route creation,


predicting appeal of tourism zones.
Tourism objects.
Traffic flow simulation, including toll
roads, traffic lights and pedestrian flow
Public transportation buses, trains
GIS with analytical tools
Truck routes

239

12 Annex 4: Combined policy simulation packages


Table 12.1: Combined domains simulation tools

Tool
SPLATCHE 2

Application
Demographic and
genetic modelling

CommunityViz Land use planning to


analyze environmental,
economic and social
impact

Compatibility

Dimensions

Possible to
save/export BMP,
WMF formats; Import
SAM, TXT, PAR files

2D

ArcGIS.

2D/3D

Main features
Demographic and genetic modelling
Graphs
Land planning and its impact
Environment pollution indicators
People and workforce
Traffic and transport assumptions
Graphs

Envision
Tomorrow

Urban and regional


planning

ArcGIS and MS
Offfice

2D

Density and types of land use


Choice of transportation
Housing and its availability
Local income/impact of infrastructure
Impact of agriculture
240

Energy consumption
Uplan

Urban or district level


modelling

ArcGIS, Spatial
Analyst and MS Excel

2D

Impact of improving regional transport


infrastructure
Land use policy
Spatial distribution between residents and
increase in employment
Number of residents and distribution by
districts

I-PLACE3s

Land use and transport


modelling

2D

Land use planning


Housing and employment
Transportation car, pedestrian, motorcycle
routes
Emission modelling
Employment per sector
Energy planning
Population count
GIS

INDEX

Land use and transport

ArcGIS

2D

Transit corridor/station plan

241

modelling

Visions for regional growth


Regional transportation plans
Growth plans
Demographics population count and
employment
Lan use fiscal impact
Housing availability, energy consumption,
water consumption
Employment
Environment pollution
Tourism bicycle paths, pedestrian walkways,
transit service, car routes
GIS

MetroQuest

Demographic indicators
and budget planning

2D

Transportation and urban planning


Financing and budget alternatives
Air pollution
Household budget
Demographic indicators
242

GoldSim

Modelling of
environmental,
technological and
business systems

ODBC, MS Excel

2D/3D

Management of ecological and natural


resources
Water resources
Environment renewal
Reliability and risk analysis
Transparency analysis
Risk management
Portfolio analysis
Expense modelling
Project planning and financing

Rolesia Web

Macroeconomic
simulator

Indicators global, credits and savings, bond


rates and spreads, future economic
performance, future revenues, Economic sector
growth and inflation
Stock exchange global economy,
export/import etc.
Budget

IMPLAN

Economic impact
modelling

MS Excel

Forecasting of tourism revenues from


national parks, national forests, ski resorts,

243

golf courses etc.


Economic impact on professional sports
Significance of agriculture
Resource management water consumption,
fisheries
The impact of higher education facilities on the
economy
Environmental impact
Government policy impact on the economy

244

13 Annex 5: FUPOL Simulator expectations assessment


questionnaire
Validation of requirements of FUPOL policy simulator functionality and
interface in land use and city planning
The aim of this questionnaire is to learn about basic requirements for policy simulator
functionality and interface in land use and city planning.
There are 37 questions in this questionnaire. First group of questions aims at better
understanding of beneficiary needs, major themes, possible impacts and factors that
should be addressed by the simulator. Second group of questions addresses physical,
person and process related properties of the simulation. Finally, third group of
questions address preferable FUPOL simulator features and interface requirements.

DOMAINS AND THEMES


1. Select themes of urban development which are relevant to you (select
more than one answer if necessary)

Energy and water


Environmental planning
Land-Use
Light and sound
Housing
Immigration
Neighbourhood safety and security
People
Suburbanization
Transportation planning
Urban economics
Urban growth
Urban decay
Urban renewal
Urban segregation
Other (please, specify)

IMPACT
2. Land use models are designed to predict specific impacts. What impacts
should be predicted by the simulation? (select more than one answer if
necessary)

245

Impact on costs of services and revenues in the area (for example, local tax
revenues)
Impact on local and regional economies (for example, property value)
Impact on transportation, accessibility
Environmental impact
Demographic and social impact, including demographic characteristics of
population, community characteristics, and wellbeing)
Other (please specify)

3. What questions about the impact on local and regional economies need
to be answered by the simulation?

What will be the projects impact on the cost of housing and property values
in the community?
Will the project make the community more competitive in a commercial sense
and more attractive to business?
Will the project have a negative effect on other communities in the area?
Not relevant
Other questions (please specify)

4. What questions about the impact on transportation need to be


answered by the simulation?

Will the project increase traffic congestion?


Will
the
project
provide
enough
and
safe
parking
for
residents/customers/employees?
Will people be able to get to jobs, shopping, and services, such as doctors?
Not relevant
Other (please specify)

5. What questions about the impact on environment need to be answered


by the simulation?

Will the project affect the amount of available green space, flood plains, and
natural habitat?
How will the project affect the consumption of energy and other natural
resources?
What will be the projects impact on water and air quality and quantity?
Not relevant
Other (please specify)

6. What questions about social impact need to be answered by the


simulation?

How will the project change the character of the community?


How will the project affect disadvantaged population?
246

How will important community attributes (e.g., historic/cultural sites) be


affected by the project?
Not relevant
Other (please specify)

7. What other long term considerations need to be addressed by the


simulation?

What land-use changes will be encouraged by specific project/policy?


How will impacts evolve over time?
Not relevant
Other (please specify)

FACTORS AND DRIVERS


8. Which factors influencing the land-use should be included in the model?
(select more than one answer)

Land nutrient loading


Increases in storm water runoff
Water pollution
Other water quality impacts
Changes in criteria pollutants
Changes in greenhouse gasses
Other air quality impacts
Changes in local zoning
Availability of open spaces
Transportation infrastructure developments
Changes in infrastructure costs
Travel demand change
Global policies
National policies
Local fiscal policies
Developer impact fees
Property taxes
Municipal sewer and water fees
Subsidies
Road tolls
Parking fees
Other (please specify)

PROPERTIES OF THE SIMULATION


Properties of the model include physical properties, such as time, space, buildings,
transportation system; decision makers (actors/agents) whose actions influence the
247

evolution of the physical system, and decision processes used by these


actors/agents.

Time
9. How long into the future should the model predict?

5+ years into the future

20 years into the future

20-50 years into the future

100 years into the future

User defined

Other (please specify)

10. What is the desired increment for simulation?

1 year

5 years

User defined

Other (please specify)

Land
11. What is the desired spatial extent of the model?

Local or regional level

Applicable to cities with populations of 200,000+

Scalable and customized for user needs

Other (please specify)

12. How should land be represented in the simulation model?

Land areas are categorized

Zone representation

Subzone representation

Individual buildings are recognized

Other (please specify)


248

13. What is the desired spatial resolution of the model?

100 m x 100 m

150 m x 150 m

200 m x 200 m

300 m x 300 m

User defined

Take in account existing data

Other (please specify)

14. Which urban land use categories should be addressed by the model?

Residential

Commercial

Mixed use

Industrial

Recreational

Other (please specify)

15. Which non-urban land use categories should be addressed by the


model?

None

Agricultural

Forest

Wetlands

Water

Preservation

Park land

Other (please specify)

249

Developed space
16. How should developed space be represented in the model?

Basic representation of housing by type (e.g. residential and non-residential)

Housing by type, units and floor space by zone

Other (please specify)

Transport system
17. How should transport system be represented in the model?

Individual vehicle passenger travel

Public transport passenger travel

Goods transport

Other (please specify)

People
18. How should people be represented in the model?

No explicit representation of persons and their attributes

Explicit representation of persons and their attributes, such as gender, age


etc.

Persons modelled only as travellers in transport model

Other (please, specify)

19. In case if persons are represented in the model, select those life course
events that you would like to include in the simulation (please bear in
mind the availability of relevant statistics in your area)

Birth

Death

Sex of the new born

Ageing

Disability
250

Single

Cohabit

Marriage

Divorce

Widowed

Presence of kids

Child leaving parental home

Child custody

Institutionalization of the elderly

Education attainment

Student employment

Labour participation

Employment status

Employment type (full time/part time)

Employment industry type

Occupation Type

Work duration

Income

Job change

Residential location

Workplace location

School location

Asset debt ownership

Pension benefits

Social security benefits

Residential mobility

Drivers License

Vehicle ownership

ICTE Adaptation

251

Households
20. How should households be represented in the model?

No representation of households in the model

Representation of households in the model without representing types of


households

Households are represented and categorization by type, such as single person,


multifamily etc.)

Other (please, specify)

21. In case if households are represented in the model, select life course
events that you would like to include in the simulation (please bear in
mind the availability of relevant statistics in your area)

Household transition

Fertility

Mortality

Housing tenure choice

Residential building type choice

Household location choice

Household relocation

Car ownership choice

Work at home choice

Workplace location choice

Private sector
22. How should the private sector be represented in the model?

Aggregate number of jobs in specific industries per zone

Outputs of production processes represented by employment

Business establishments are explicitly represented and are categorized by


types

Other (please specify)


252

23. In case if employment is represented in the model, select life course


events that you would like to include in the simulation (please bear in
mind the availability of relevant statistics in your area)

Employment transition

Employment relocation

Employment location choice

Other, please specify

Developers
24. How should developers be represented in the model?

No explicit representation of developers

Developers

decisions are

modelled for

residential

developments

and

redevelopments

Developers decisions are modelled for both residential and non-residential


developments and redevelopments

Other (please, specify)

25. In case developers are represented in the model, select life course
events that you would like to include in the simulation (please bear in
mind the availability of relevant statistics in your area)

Development proposal choice

Building construction

Development project transition

Development project location choice

Real estate price

Expected sales price

Other (please, specify)

Municipality
253

26. How should municipality be represented in the model?


No explicit representation of municipalities in the model
Allow external policy inputs by municipality, such as transport development
constraints, zoning and planning regulations
Other (please, specify)

Treatment of decision processes


27. What decision making processes would you like to simulate in the
model?
Basic land use decisions and analysis
Housing market
Floor space allocation
Immigration
Job market
Urban segregation
Personal transport market
Vehicle market
Other (please, specify)

Interface
28. How important are these model features?
(1-not important, 5-very important)
Features

Grade

Visual: Visual representation of results on easy to read maps (GIS)


Precision of representation: Results are available in high resolution
Expandability: Consists of sub-models that can be easy updated to
include new information
Customization: Can be customized to work at various levels of scale
and detail
Policy oriented: Models stimulate alternative development futures
based on policy changes. Sensitivity on local and global policies
Insightful: Reveals trends and patterns
Projective: Allows users to recognize future urban growth patterns,
the sensitivity
Transferable: Can be easily adopted to other metropolitan areas
254

Data availability: Input requirements use generally available data


sources
Calibration: Easy calibration
Dynamic nature: Model provides interaction between different
elements
Extrapolation: e.g. can be used to extrapolate land use change for a
much larger geographic area than that to which it was applied
Incrementality: Provides communities with a consistent, efficient
tool for evaluating incremental development proposals
Long range: Provides possibilities to monitor and implement longrange land-use plans
Sensitivity to complex human behaviour: Based on latest research
of human geography
Accessibility: Easy to access and use through the Internet
Property rights: Freeware and/or open-source solution
Other qualities (please specify)
29. Who would be the primary end-users of the model?
General public with little knowledge in land use planning
General public with some knowledge in land use planning
Politicians, policy makers
Nontechnical land use planners and managers
Specialists, such as transportation engineers, economists, demographers,
researchers, academics
30. What is the level of computer usage skills for those persons who are
going to be working with the model?
General computer skills
Familiarity with specific software applications in land use modelling
Programming skills
Knowledge of statistics
31. How should the model be calibrated?
Parameters can be recalibrated using options embedded in the software for
the model
Parameters can be recalculated using methods/instructions cited in model
documentation or by altering input files
Parameters can only be calibrated using original programming
255

Comments

32. What software should the model be connected to?


Data management tools such as spreadsheets and data bases
Statistical software
GIS software
Virtual and augmented reality tools
Other (please specify)
33. Should the model easily link to other models?
Yes, with no effort
Yes, but with modifications
Not necessary
Comments
34. Should the model be easily transferrable to other operating systems?
Yes, very important
Yes, desirable
Not necessary
No answer
35. What should the data input format for the simulator be?
Not-processed inputs
Pre-processed inputs prepared with statistical analysis software e.g., SAS,
SPLUS, SPSS)
SQL and other data bases
Specific data bases (CORINE, EUROSTAT etc.)
GIS data sources
Other (please specify)
36. The outputs of the model include data summaries which should be
delivered as?
SQL and other data base records
GIS layers
Spreadsheets (Excel)
Reports and tables
Multimedia (movies)
Graphs
All of the above
37. What support should be provided by model developers?
Model developers have to provide sufficient support to understand, adapt and
implement the model
Simulator software documentation
Hands-on training of model users
256

Short instructional videos


User guide of how to load and run the model
Additional training support
External consultant support
User support online forum
All of the above
Other (please specify)

Additional comments and suggestions are welcome!

257

14 Annex 6: Validation of requirements of FUPOL


Simulator functionality and interface in land use and
city planning

258

259

260

261

262

263