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1.

FORECASTING
Develop a prognostic simulation of demand for the product or service by
training project.
Consider the following:
a) Company name:
JJ HARDWARE CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

b) Main bussines rea


Is a company dedicated to the commercialization of materials for the
construction industry par all
c) Seven steps to make a forecasting system

1) Uses
The forecast was made for the market of construction materials at local and
national

level

with

these

products

that

meet

the

expectations

and

characteristics of quality to customers


And the price required by the customer to be competitive and generating
preference
Market positioning.
The sales forecast is used to provide greater safety in handling related
information
Sales of the company

2) Items:
Here forecast the number of construction materials to be developed and to
meet the demand of customers every day
This company markets and distributes construction materials for all Colombia

3) Time horizon
To prepare the forecast we will use historical data from the last ten years
Product units sold and subsequently sales, materials will predict for three years
2015.2016 and 2017. This provision would allow us to know whether sales
trends are up or down to.

4) Medel:
Quantitative model
A quantitative model that uses regression statistical variations and statistics in
order to find patterns for a prediction for the future and have better earnings in
our materials. This model is based on historical information to facilitate
calculations and analysis. For data processing will use the Excel program

5) Data gathering
To prepare sales forecast materials the last ten years it will be considered
historical data. Data collection is supported by certain methods to ensure the
objectivity of the data, such as regression and correlation analysis, industry
analysis, analysis of the economy and the market
6) Making
After data collection and developed the previous 5 steps quantitative statistical
method was applied and the forecast that the overall conditions of all
production and administrative activities of the company and specifically the
operations of production and distribution should be developed
7) Validation and Implementation
Validation and application of the seven steps for a forecasting system to help
Determine clearly the objective you want to achieve JJ hardware store
construction materials regarding the level of sales in a given period, and to

develop strategies for achieve. For positive results in the sales forecast, the
company implemented the model for the realization of efficient and effective
forecasts.
year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

sales per year


1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

2)

materials sales
800
850
855
900
910
940
960
980
995
980
1033
1054
1075

Graphical forecast

The following is forecasting sales chart for 2015 (short-term), 2017 (medium
term) and 2019 (long-term) of the products of construction materials

projection
2015
2016

values
1032
1053

trend
short term
medium term

2017

1074

long term