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Daily Exclusive ORYZA

Rice E-Newsletter

April 28,2016
Vol 7,Issue IV

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South Korea Seeks to Buy 58,111 Tons of NonGlutinous Rice in Tenders


Apr 27, 2016

South Korea's state run Agro Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (KAFTC) is seeking to buy about
58,111 tons of non-glutinous brown rice in tenders for delivery between September 30, 2016 and
November 30, 2016, according to a statement on its website.
The details of the tonnage and timing of the rice sought:
Registration of tenders will close at 4.00 p.m on May 3, 2016. Electronic bidding will take place on May
4, 2016 between 10:00 and 11:00 a.m

Bangladesh Rice Farmers Expect Better Prices


as Boro Harvesting Begins
Rice farmers in most parts of the country have started harvesting Boro (January - May) paddy and are
expecting better prices this year, according to the Daily Star.
The government's recent announcement to purchase 700,000 tons of paddy directly from farmers at
Tk 23 per kilogram (around $300 per ton) is said to have raised hopes among the farmers. The
government also announced to purchase another 600,000 tons of rice from millers at Tk 32 per
kilogram (around $417 per ton). Usually the government procures 900,000 tons to one million tons of
milled rice and around 100,000 tons of paddy from farmers. However, this year, the government
decided to procure more paddy from farmers to support prices.
This year, Boro acreage declined to around 4.685 million hectares from last year's 4.8 million
hectares due to low prices last year. Flash floods in the northern Bangladesh have reportedly
damaged around 22,000 hectares of Boro rice crop, but Agriculture officials noted that the damage
would not affect the total output significantly. Despite low acreage and flash floods, Agriculture
officials are expecting the Boro rice output to remain stable at 19 million tons.
Farmers have expressed joy over the government's decision to buy more paddy from farmers directly.
They said this would encourage them to grow more rice. They also noted that prices have started to
pick up. One farmer said the price increased to 730 Tk per forty kilograms (around $238 per ton) of
paddy from around 700 Tk (around $228 per ton) last week.
The government is also reportedly planning to impose a 10% supplementary duty on top of the 20%
tariff on rice imports to support market prices during Boro harvest.
Meanwhile, the officials of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) noted that 2015-16 (July June) Aman (July - December) paddy rice output reached around 13.5 million tons, up from last

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year's 13.2 million tons due to increased plantation of high-yielding varieties. They are expecting to
achieve an output of 2.28 million tons from Aus (February - August) crop.

USDA Post Forecasts Vietnam MY 2015-16


Rice Exports to Increase 6% y/y to 7 Million
Tons
Apr 27, 2016

The USDA Post forecasts Vietnam's MY 2015-16 (January - December 2016) rice exports at 7
million tons, up from last year's 6.615 million tons and unchanged from USDA's official estimates.
The Post reports that Vietnam rice export prices increased sharply during the first three months of
calendar year 2016. At the peak of the harvest, export prices went up about $10 per ton compared to
prices in December 2015. Usually, at this time export prices decline by about $20-30 per ton ahead of
the harvest of spring crop in the Mekong Delta. However, local prices as well as export prices
increased this year on higher export demand and likely decline in production due to drought and
salinity.
Many rice traders are concerned that the on-going high and unrealistic rice prices may cause negative
trade impacts such as losses and defaults, says the Post. It says the government is concerned that high

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selling prices may impact the country's local food security. The Post expects the government to lower
export target to ensure its local food security.
The Post reports that due to on-going high prices, the decided not to provide any purchase program
for the Spring crop in the Mekong River Delta.
The USDA Post forecasts Vietnam's MY 2015-16 paddy rice production at around 44.94 million tons
(around 28.09 million tons, milled basis), down from last year's 45.066 million tons and down from
USDA's official estimates of around 45.120 million tons due to the impact of drought weather
caused by El Nino, which lowered the Spring crop production in the Mekong River Delta. The below
table shows Vietnam's area, yield and production of paddy rice for the three crops:
The Post forecasts, rice consumption in MY 2015-16 at around 21.9 million tons, down from last
year's 22.1 million tons, and unchanged from the official estimates of USDA. However, it estimates
that the country needs each year an additional 150,000 tons for total rice consumption due to higher
use of rice in home-made animal and aquaculture-feeds, and growth in industrial scale food
processing, especially in the beer and rice wine industries.
Though there is no official number of Vietnam rice stocks, are calculated from the total of rice
production, carry over stock and import after deducting export and consumption and residual. The
Post forecasts stocks in MY 2015-16 to decrease to a very low level due to strong rice consumption
and residual and expected higher export volumes.

Thailand Targets 2016-17 Main Rice Crop


Acreage at 9.2 Million Hectares
Apr 27, 2016

The government of Thailand is targeting 2016-17 main rice crop acreage at 57.41 million rai (around
9.2 million hectares), according to Bloomberg citing a statement by the Thai Farm Ministry.
The government is targeting an output of 24 million tons, including 9.38 million tons of fragrant
jasmine paddy, white rice at 8 million tons and glutinous rice at 5.69 million tons, from this year's
main crop.
Thailand is targeting a total output of 27.17 million tons (from) including the second crop. It is
estimating the demand at around 25 million tons.
The Farm Ministry will reportedly encourage farmers to plant crop to match soil quality and market
demand to produce premium grade products.

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North Korea's 2015-16 Paddy Rice


Production Declines 26% y/y Due to Water
Deficiencies, Says FAO
Apr 27, 2016

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates North Korea's 2015-16 (November October) paddy rice production to decline about 26% to around 1.95 million tons from around 2.63
million tons in 2014-15 due to lingering precipitation deficits and low water availabilities for
irrigation.
Based on an analysis by the European Commissions Joint Research Centre (JRC), the FAO says
rainfall during mid-April through June 2015, the normal planting period of the main season cereal
crops, was well-below average over most of the country. This, coupled with the extreme low
irrigation water availability following recurrent dry spells since July 2014, hindered sowing progress
of the 2015 main season crops and considerably reduced the area planted to the 2015 rice crop,
according to the FAO.
The FAO estimates the total food requirement, including rice, at around 5.49 million tons. While the
total cereal production is estimated at 4.778 million tons, the remaining needs to be fulfilled by total
cereal imports of around 694,000 tons. However, the FAO says 300,000 tons of cereal requirement is
met through official imports and the remaining 394,000 tons is left as uncovered deficit.
The UN agency estimates the post-harvest losses of 15.56% for paddy rice crop during the year.

FAO Estimates Nigeria 2015 Paddy Rice


Production to Decline 3% y/y to 4.75 Million
Tons
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates Nigeria's 2015 paddy rice production
at around 4.75 million tons, down about 3% from around 4.9 million tons in 2014.
Harvesting of the 2015 cereal crops, including rice, was completed in January 2016. The FAO
reports that despite late onset of the 2015 rainy season in the middle and northern parts of the
country, above-average and well-distributed rainfall from mid-July benefited crop development in
the major producing states of the country.
Though the government is keen on achieving self-sufficiency in rice production, currently high
import dependency persists as production is much lower than consumption. The FAO forecasts total

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cereal imports, including rice, to exceed 7 million tons in 2016. Nigeria is still largest rice importer in
Africa.
The government has been taking several measures to reduce rice imports and encourage local rice
production. The Central Bank of Nigeria recently banned importers from accessing foreign exchange
markets in 41 categories of items, including rice. Though it lifted the ban on rice imports through
land borders in October 2015, it again reinstated the ban in March 2016 due to an increase in
informal imports.
Coarse grain prices reportedly increased in February 2016 after declining for several months. A
recent sharp depreciation of the Naira on the parallel market, driven by reduced supplies of foreign
exchange reserves, coupled with persisting civil conflict in northern Nigeria, contributed to the sharp
food price increases, says the FAO.

Nigeria MY 2015-16 Rice Imports to Fall on


Forex Issues, Says USDA Post

Apr 27, 2016

The USDA Post forecasts Nigeria's MY 2015-16 (October - September) rice imports at around 2.5
million tons, down from last year's 3 million tons and down from USDA's official estimates of
around 2.5 million tons due to constraints on foreign exchange, the current ban on land imports, and
high prices. It forecasts rice imports to further decline to 2.1 million tons in MY 2016-17.
Nigeria mostly imports rice from Thailand, India and Brazil.

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In July 2015, the Central Bank of Nigeria announced that rice imports cannot be funded through the
formal forex market. The Post reports that rice imports are currently funded through off-shore funds
or from the parallel market. The government lifted the ban on imports from land borders in October
2015 but reinstated the ban in March 2016.
The Post forecasts Nigeria's MY 2015-16 production to decline to 2.7 million tons from around 2.835
million tons last year on lower area. It forecasts area to decline to 2.5 million tons from 2.7 million
tons last year but up from USDA's official estimates of 2.4 million tons. However, it forecasts area
and production to remain stable in MY 2016-17.
The Post says, with limited government support and low-level private sector investments in paddy
production, domestic supplies still fall significantly short of local demand.
The USDA Post forecasts Nigeria's MY 2015-16 consumption to decline 5.35 million tons, down
from last year's 5.7 million tons and down from USDA's official estimates of around 5.85 million
tons due to declining consumer purchase power and rising market prices. It forecasts consumption to
further decline to 5.15 million tons in MY 2016-17.
The Post reports that currently, domestic rice is sold at 35,000 Naira (around $102) per 50 kilograms
and imported rice is sold at 13,000 Naira (around $40) per 50 kilograms.
The USDA Post forecasts Nigeria MY 2015-16 rice stocks to decline to 651,000 tons from last year's
792,000 tons on tighter supply situation. It expects stocks to further decline to 300,000 tons in MY
2016-16.
The government is reportedly striving to achieve self-sufficiency in rice production. But farmers
complain that they are unable to access low-interest rate loans that are provided by the government.
They also say local rice production costs are high mainly due to higher costs for low-yielding
seeds/seedlings and transportation to/from milling facilities which are located in areas of inadequate
infrastructures, such as roads and electricity, according to the Post.

Italian Paddy Rice Quotes Remain Stable in


Fourth Week of April 2016
Apr 27, 2016

Italian paddy rice prices remained unchanged in the fourth week of April 2016 after a long period of
slowing down with all of the quotes remaining unchanged from the week ended April 19 , according
to data from the Granaria Association of Milan. The Oryza index of Italy's paddy rice prices also
remained unchanged at last week's level of around 381 euro (around $429) per ton as of April 26,
2016.
Below are farm gate paddy quotes as of April 26, 2016:
Arborio-Volano prices were quoted at around 752.5 euros (about $853.17) per ton, unchanged from
the previous week.
Balilla, Centauro and similar paddies are out at 315 euros (about $354.33), unchanged from the
previous week ended April 19.
Lido, Crono, Flipper and similar varieties are out 270 euros (about $303.71) unchanged from the
previous week.
Padano, Argo are out at 332.5 euros (about $374.02) per ton, unchanged from the previous week.
Vialone Nano is quoted 430 euros (about $483.63) per ton, unchanged from the previous week.
Carnaroli and similar varieties were quoted at around 692.5 euros (about $778.97) per ton,
unchanged from a week prior.

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Thaibonnet and similar varieties were quoted at around 290 euros (about $326.21) per ton
unchanged from a week prior.
Sant'Andrea is also quoted at 290 euros (about $326.21) per ton, unchanged from the previous week.
Luna Cl, Dardo and similar varieties were quoted at at around 260 euros (about $292.46) per ton,
unchanged from the previous week.
Baldo is quoted at around 300 euros (about $337.46) per ton, unchanged from the previous week.
Roma is out at 345 euros (about $388.08) per ton, unchanged from the previous week.
Selenio is quoted at around 400 euros (about $449.94) per ton, unchanged from a week prior.
Augusto is out at around 320 euros (about $359.96) per ton, unchanged from the previous week.
Loto and Nembo are quoted at around 295 euros (about $331.83) per ton, unchanged from a week
prior.

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9
India, Pakistan Rice Sellers Increase Some
of Their Quotes Today; Other Asia Rice
Quotes Unchanged
Apr 27, 2016

India rice sellers increased their quotes for 100% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $280$290 per ton today. Pakistan rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice and 25% broken
rice by about $5-$10 per ton to around $365-$375 per ton and $325-$335 per ton respectively. Other
Asia rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton, about $10 per ton premium on Vietnam
5% rice shown at around $370 - $380 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per
ton, on par with Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $365 - $375per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $10 per ton premium on Vietnam
25% rice shown at around $355- $365 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $335- $345 per
ton, about $10 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $325 - $335 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $390 - $400 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at
around $340 - $350 per ton, about $65 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last shown at
around $405 - $415 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton, on par with Vietnam
100% broken rice shown at around $340 - $350 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around
$280 - $290 per ton, about $10 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around
$290 - $300 per ton.

NFA New Chief May Decide on Volume and


Timing of Philippines Rice Imports
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10

Apr 27, 2016

The Philippines National Food Authority (NFA) Administrator, who is resigning on April 30, 2016,
on health concerns, told reporters that the decision on rice imports may be handed over to the new
Chief, according to Bloomberg.
The NFA Council was scheduled to meet today to discuss the import plan.
The NFA official noted the NFA has standby authority to import up to 500,000 tons of rice this year.
The Philippines can also import about 805,000 tons of rice under WTO's minimum access volume
(MAV) at 35%. The government has so far not decided on the MAV imports.
Last month, he noted that the government has enough rice stocks and does not see any need for
imports during the lean months (July - September).
The NFA is mandated to have at least 15-day buffer stock at any given time, and 30-day buffer stock
during lean months.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Bids Dip as


Futures Retreat
Apr 27, 2016

The U.S. cash market was weaker today with bids and some offers falling with the futures
market. However, most farmer price ideas remain unchanged as they finish getting their crops.
Analysts note that cash prices have firmed up a bit since Iraq bought 90,000 tons from the U.S.;
however, they caution that without greater export demand prices will have to go lower to make room
for next years crop which could have 20-30% more long grain acres than last year and that is being
planted well ahead of schedule.

ORYZA News have been published with permission of ORYZA.com with thanks

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