Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
CHAPTER 21:
TIME SERIES ECONOMETRICS: SOME BASIC CONCEPTS
21.1
21.2
21.3
Loosely speaking, the term unit root means that a given time
series is nonstationary. More technically, the term refers to the
root of the polynomial in the lag operator.
21.4
21.5
21.6
The EG and AEG tests are statistical procedures that can be used to
to determine if two time series are cointegrated.
21.7
21.8
21.9
219
21.11 Most economic time series exhibit trends. If such trends are
perfectly predictable, we call them deterministic. If that is not case,
we call them stochastic. A nonstationary time series generally
exhibits a stochastic trend.
21.12 If a time series exhibits a deterministic trend, the residuals from
the regression of such a time series on the trend variable represents
what is called a trend-stationary process. If a time series is
nonstationary but becomes stationary after taking its first (or higher)
order differences, we call such a time series a difference-stationary
process.
21.13 A random walk is an example of a nonstationary process. If a
variable follows a random walk, it means its value today is equal to
its value in the previous time period plus a random shock (error
term). In such situations, we may not be able to forecast the course
of such a variable over time. Stock prices or exchange rates are
typical examples of the random walk phenomenon.
21.14 This is true. The proof is given in the chapter.
21.15 Cointegration implies a long term, or equilibrium, relationship
between two (or more variables). In the short run, however, there
may be disequilibrium between the two. The ECM brings the two
variables back to long term equilibrium.
Empirical Exercises
21.16 (a) The correlograms for all these time series very much resemble
the log GDP correlogram given in Fig. 21.8. All these correlograms
suggest that these time series are nonstationary.
21.17 The regression results are as follows:
log PCEt = 0.1899 + 0.0002t 0.0261 log PCEt 1
= (1.80)
(1.67)
(1.71)*
R 2 = 0.0144
*In absolute terms, this tau value is less than the critical tau value,
suggesting that there is a unit root in the log PCE time series, that is,
this time series is nonstationary.
220
= (1.41)
(1.15)
(1.29)*
R 2 = 0.017
* This tau value is not statistically significant, suggesting that the
log PDI time series contains a unit root, that is, it is nonstationary.
log Pr ofitst = 0.1412 + 0.0010t 0.0524 Pr ofits t-1
= (2.69)
(2.81)
(2.60)*
R 2 = 0.0354
* This tau value is not statistically significant, suggesting that this
time series has a unit root.
Dividends t = 0.0411 + 0.0004t 0.0180 Dividends t-1
= (2.09)
(1.61)
( 1.42)*
R 2 = 0.0217
* This tau value is not significant, suggesting that the
log Dividends time series is nonstationary.
Thus, we see that all the given time series are nonstationary. The
results of the Dickey-Fuller test with no trend and no trend and no
intercept did not alter the conclusion.
21.18 If the error terms in the model are serially correlated, ADF is the
more appropriate test. The statistics for the appropriate coefficient
from the ADF regressions for the three series are:
log PCE
-1.73
log DPI
-1.44
log Profits
-3.14
log Dividends
-1.42
The critical values remain the same as in Problem 21.17. Again,
the conclusion is the same, namely, that the three time series
are nonstationary.
21.19 (a) Probably yes, because individually the two time series
are nonstationary.
(b) The OLS regression of dividends on profits gave the following
results:
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
C
-1.3339
0.0503
-26.50
PROFITS
1.1269
0.0103
109.63
R-squared
0.9803
d = 0.1509
221
21.20 The scattergrams of the first differences of log DPI, log Profits, and
log Dividends, all show diagrams similar to Fig. 21.9. In the first
difference form each of these time series is stationary. This can be
confirmed by the ADF test.
21.21 In theory there should not be an intercept in the model. But if there
was a trend term in the original model, then an intercept could be
included in the regression and the coefficient of that intercept term
will indicate the coefficient of the trend variable. This of course
assumes that the trend is deterministic and not stochastic.
To see this, we first regressed log Dividends on log Profits and the
trend variable, which gave the following results:
Dependent Variable: log DIVIDEND
Variable
C
Log PROFITS
trend
R-squared
Coefficient
0.4358
0.4245
0.0127
Std. Error
0.1053
0.0402
0.0007
t-Statistic
4.14
10.55
17.71
0.9914
222
Variable
C
logProfits
R-squared
Coefficient
0.0193
0.0585
Std. Error
0.0021
0.0302
t-Statistic
9.24
1.94
0.01524
21.22 From the first difference regression given in the preceding exercise,
we can obtain the residuals of this regression ( ut ) and subject them
to unit root tests. We regressed ut on its own lagged value without
intercept, with intercept, and with intercept and trend. In each case
the null hypothesis was that these residuals are nonstationary, that is,
they contain a unit root test. The Dickey-Fuller values for the
three options were -17.05, -17.01, and -17.22. In each case the
hypothesis was rejected at 5% or better level (i.e., p value lower than
5%). In other words, although log Dividends and log Profits were
not cointegrated, they were cointegrated in the first difference form.
21.23 (a) Since is less than the critical value, it seems that the
housing start time series is nonstationary. Therefore, there is
a unit root in this time series.
(b) Ordinarily, an absolute t value of as much as 2.35 or greater
would be significant at the 5% level. But because of the unit
root situation, the true t value here is 2.95 and not 2.35. This
example shows why one has to be careful in using the t statistic
indiscriminately.
(c) Since the of X t 1 is much greater than the corresponding
critical value, we conclude that there is no second unit root in the
housing start time series.
223
40
20
0
0
500
1000
X
Y exhibits a linear trend, whereas X represents a quadratic
trend.
Here is the graph of the actual and fitted Y values:
40
20
5
0
-5
-10
10
Residual
20
30
Actual
Fitted
From the given regression results you might think that this
is a "good" regression in that it has a high R2 and significant
t ratios. But it is a totally spurious relationship, because we
are regressing a linearly trended variable (Y) on a quadratically
trended variable (X). That something is not right with this model
can be gleaned from the very low Durbin-Watson d value.
The point of this exercise is to warn us against reading too much in
the regression results of two deterministically trended variables with
divergent time paths.
21.26 (a) Regression (1) shows that the elasticity of M1 with respect to
GDP is about 1.60, which seems statistically significant, as the t
value of this coefficient is very high. But looking at the d value, we
224
21.27 (a) & (b) The time graph of CPI very much resembles Fig. 21.12.
This graph clearly shows that generally there is an upward trend in
the CPI. Therefore, regression (1) and (2) are not worth
considering. Note that the coefficient of the lagged CPI is positive
in both cases. For stationarity, we require this value to be negative.
Therefore, the more meaningful equation here is regression (3).
The DF unit root tests suggest that the CPI time series is
trend stationary. That is, the values of the CPI around its trend value
(which is statistically significant) are stationary.
(c) Since Equation (1) omits two variables, we have to use the
F test.
Using the R2 version of the F test, the R2 value of regression (1)
is 0.0703, which is the restricted R2. The R2 value of regression
(3), which is 0.507, is the unrestricted R2. Hence the F value is:
225
(0.507 0.0703) / 2
= 19.9305
(1 0.507) / 45
Referring to the DF F values given in Table D.7 in App. D, you can
see that the observed F value is highly significant (Note: The table
does not give the F value for 40 observations, but mentally
interpolating the given F values, you will reach this conclusion.).
Hence, the conclusion is that the restrictions imposed by regression
(1) are invalid. More positively, it is regression (3) that seems valid.
F=
226