Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Are Lunar Tides Responsible for Most of the Observed Variation in the Globally
Averaged Historical Temperature Anomalies?
PART A: Evidence for a Luni-Solar Tidal Explanation
PART B: The Mechanism for a Luni-Solar Tidal Explanation
[Please see the next post]

PART A: Evidence for a Luni-Solar Tidal Explanation

1. Background
A. Keeling and Whorf
Keeling and Whorf [2] "present evidence that global temperature has fluctuated quasi-decadally since 1855, except for
an interruption between about 1900 and 1945, thus supporting previous claims of failures of weather phenomena to
maintain a correlation with the sunspot cycle near 1920. This interruption, although difficult to explain by a sunspot
mechanism, does not rule out a tidal mechanism, because the astronomically driven tide raising forces since 1855 have
exhibited strong 9-year periodicity only when quasi-decadal periodicity was evident in temperature data. Furthermore,
unlike the perplexing shift in the phase of quasi-decadal temperature fluctuations with the sunspot cycle between the 19th
and 20th centuries, there was no such shift in phase with respect to tidal forcing."
[N.B. Figure 3 of Keeling and Whorf [http://www.pnas.org/content/94/16/8321.full.pdf] clearly shows the 180
degree phase shift between the mean sunspot number and decadal band-pass of global surface temperature
between about 1900 and 1945.]

Keeling and Whorf [1,2], working with globally averaged temperature data for both land and sea (expressed as an
anomaly beginning in 1855 and updated through mid-1995), report strong spectral peaks at 9.3, 15.2, and 21.7 years. They
refer to the 9.3 period as the quasi-decadal signal and the 21.7 year period as the bi-decadal signal.
Keeling and Whorf [1,2] show that the "near[quasi]*-decadal variations in global air temperature are
characteristic of the past 141 years [1885 - 1995]*, except for a roughly 45-year interruption centered near 1920
[i.e. 1900 - 1945]*. This pattern has also emerged using spectral analysis, specifically from the beating of two
frequencies found to be close to the 9th and 10th harmonics of the lunisolar tidal cycle of 93 years. Furthermore,
temperature oscillations with periods near 6 years were found in the temperature record by spectral analysis
near the time of interference of the two near-decadal oscillations [i.e. 1900 - 1945]*, and thus close in period to
the 6-year repeat period of another prominent lunisolar tidal cycle."
[N.B. bracketed text with a "*" next to it are my additions to the original quote.]

B. Copland and Watts

Copeland and Watts [3] show ..."that decadal and bidecadal oscillations in globally averaged temperature show
patterns of alternating weak and strong warming rates, and that these [warming rates]* underwent a phase change [with
respect to the solar cycle]* around 1920. Prior to that time, the lunar [tidal]* influence dominates, while after that time
the solar influence dominates. While these show signs of being correlated with the broad secular variation in atmospheric
circulation patterns over time, the persistent influence of the lunar nodal cycle, even when the solar cycle dominates the
warming rate cycles, implicates oceanic [tidal]* influences on secular trends in terrestrial climate."
Copeland and Watts [3] ... "pick up where Keeling and Whorf [1,2]* leave off, insofar as documenting decadal and
bidecadal oscillations in globally averaged temperature trends is concerned, but...[claim]* ...that these are likely the result
of a combined lunisolar influence, and not simply the result of lunar nodal and tidal influences [as claimed by Keeling and
Whorf]*."
Figure 4 of Copeland and Watts [3] shows the MTM spectrum analysis of the unfiltered HadCRUT3 monthly global
temperature anomaly time series between January 1850 and November 2008 [4]. Copeland and Watts [3] find a "quasioscillatory cycle with a peak at 8.98 years, and a harmonic signal centered at 21.33 years." They also find that ..."The
harmonic at 21.33 years in Figure 4 encompasses a range from 18.96 to 24.38 years, and the quasi-oscillatory signal that
peaks at 8.93 [sic] years has sidebands above the 99% significance level that range from 8.53 to 10.04 years."
Copeland and Watts [3] claim that ..."A bidecadal frequency of 20.68 years is too short to be attributed solely to the
double sunspot cycle, and too long to be attributed solely to the 18.6 year lunar nodal cycle. Instead, they prefer that ..."a
better attribution is the beat cycle explanation proposed by Bell [5]*, i.e. a cycle representing the combined influence of the
22 year double sunspot cycle and the 18.6 year lunar nodal cycle."
C. Evidence For and Against Solar Driven Variations in World Mean Temperature
Evidence AGAINST the Solar Explanation for the Quasi-Decadal and Bi-Decadal Oscillations
1. It is generally agreed that the ~ 9.0 year peak seen in the spectral analysis of the historical world monthly
temperature anomaly data is likely to be the result of forcing caused by a combination of the 9.3 (= 18.6 / 2) year
lunar nodal tidal cycle and the 8.85 year lunar anomalistic tidal cycle (i.e. (9.30 + 8.85)/2 = 9.08 years).
2. This means that there is little or no evidence for the 11.1 year sunspot number cycle in the historical world
monthly temperature anomaly data. Such a signal should be visible if variations in the Total Solar Irradiance
(TSI) have a direct influence upon the world's mean temperatures.
3. The solar explanation does not explain the hiatus in the quasi-decadal oscillations in the historical world
monthly temperature anomaly data between 1900 and 1945, nor the reversion to a 6 year period of oscillation
during this period.
4. The solar explanation cannot easily explain why the observed anti-correlation between the sunspot number
and the world mean temperature anomalies prior to 1900, disappears between 1900 and 1945, and then
changes phase by 180 degrees after 1950.
Evidence FOR the Solar Explanation for the Quasi-Decadal and Bi-Decadal Oscillations
1. Henrik Svenmark [6,7] has proposed that that 22 year variation in the strength of the Sun's magnetic field
modulates the albedo of the Earth through cosmic ray seeding of cloud formation.
If this theory is correct it could give support to the solar attribution for the 21.33 year bi-decadal oscillation seen
in the historical world monthly temperature anomaly data. However there are at least two arguments against this
explanation being correct:
a. The Svenmark Cosmic-Ray Cloud Model is still unable to overcome counter-arguments 3 and 4
above against a solar attribution for the 21.33 year bi-decadal oscillation.
b. Laken et al. [8] have used new high quality satellite data to show that the El Nio Southern Oscillation [ENSO] is
responsible for most changes in cloud cover at the global and regional levels. They also found that galactic cosmic rays, and
total solar irradiance did not have any statistically significant influence on changes in cloud cover.

The evidence cited above clearly does not support the solar explanation for the Quasi-Decadal and BidDecadel Oscillations. Indeed, if anything, it implies that the lunar tidal explanation is by far the stronger of the
two options.
Additionally, Laken et al. [8] claims that the ENSO is responsible for much of the changes in cloud cover at
regional and global levels. If this is true, then it would be much more plausible to propose that variations
observed in the historical world monthly temperature anomalies data should be determined by whatever
mechanism controls the long-term variations in the ENSO.
Evidence is beginning to mount that the ENSO climate phenomenon is being primarily driven by by the longterm luni-solar tidal cycles. The purpose of this blog post is to further investigate this possibility.

2. The

Luni-Solar Tidal Explanation

A. Evidence that the onset of El Nino events are driven by the Luni-solar tides.
Here is a quick summary of the evidence to support the claim that the timing for the onset of El Nino events is
determined by the luni-solar tidal cycles:
1. Sidorenkov [10,11] has found that the SOI index that is used to monitor El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate
variations has significant spectral components that are remarkably close to the sub-harmonics of the free nutation period of
the Earth's poles (i.e. the 1.185 tropical year Chandler Wobble) and the super-harmonics of the Earth's forced nutation (i.e.
the 18.60 tropical year lunar nodal precession cycle). Specifically, Sidorenkov finds that the periods of the n = 2, 3, 4 and 5
sub-harmonics of the Chandler Wobble (CW) at 2.37, 3.56, 4.74, 5.93 years, closely match the periods of the n = 3, 4, 5 and
8 super-harmonics of the lunar nodal precession at 6.20, 4.65, 3.72, 2.33 years.
Sidorenkov argues that external forcing by the lunar-solar tides, acting at the super-harmonics of the Earth's forced
nutation produce non-linear enhancements of the oscillations in the Earths atmosphere-ocean system that closely match
those seen in the ENSO indices. He also asserts that the resultant ENSO climate variations excite the CW through a
resonant coupling with the sub-harmonics of the free nutation period of the Earth's pole. In essence, Sidorenkov is
proposing that the ~ 4.5 year variations that are seen in the ENSO climate system are being driven by external forcing on
the Earths atmosphere-ocean system by the lunar-solar tides.

2. Li [14], Li and Zong [15], Li et. al. [16], and Krahenbuhl [17] clearly show that luni/solar induced atmospheric tides are
present at altitudes above about 3000 m.
3. Wilson [18] shows that if you control for the changes in the mean (atmospheric) sea-level pressure (MSLP) of the
Southern Hemisphere Sub-Tropical High Pressure Ridge that are caused by the Sun (i.e. the seasonal cycle), then it possible
to see the much smaller long-term changes caused by the luni-solar tides.
4. Wilson [19] shows that lunar atmospheric tides can produce small but significant long term changes in the overall
pressure of the four main semi-permanent sub-tropical high pressures systems in the Southern Hemisphere. Wilson shows
that an N=4 standing wave-like pattern in the MSLP circumnavigates the Southern Hemisphere once every every 18 or 18.6
years. This standing wave will naturally produce large extended regions of abnormal atmospheric pressure passing over the
semi-permanent South Pacific subtropical high roughly once every ~ 4.5 - 4.7 years. These moving regions of higher/lower
than normal atmospheric pressure will increase/decrease the MSLP of this semi-permanent high pressure system,
temporarily increasing/reducing the strength of the East-Pacific trade winds. This could led to conditions that preferentially
favor the onset of La Nina/El Nino events.
5. Wilson [20] has also shown that based upon the premise that the 31/62 year Perigy-Syzygy seasonal tidal cycle plays
a significant role in sequencing the triggering of El Nio events, its effects for the following three new moon epochs:
New Moon Epochs:
Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April 1870
Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994

[The New Moon Epochs have peak seasonal tides that are dominated by new moons that are predominately in the northern
hemisphere]
should be noticeably different from its effects for the following full moon epochs:
Full Moon Epochs:
Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025
[The Full Moon Epochs have peak seasonal tides that are dominated by full moons that are predominately in the
southern hemisphere]
Wilson found that:
a. El Nio events in the New Moon epochs preferentially occur near times when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the Sun
at the times of the Solstices.
b. El Nio events in the Full Moon epochs preferentially occur near times when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the Sun at
the times of the Equinoxes.
and these simple rules explain the onset years for all but five of the 27 moderate to strong El nino events that have occurred
since 1865-70 when directly measured world-wide sea-surface temperatures have become available.
6. Following in the footsteps of Sidorenkov [9-13] and Wilson [18-20] , Paul Pukite [21] has found that he can generate
both the QBO and the SOI index using the luni-solar tidal forcing upon the Earth. He accomplishes this by allowing for the
aliasing of the tidal signal caused by the seasonal (yearly) cycles.
Using the seasonally aliased tidal forcing as his forcing term for the QBO, Pukite is able to accurately reproduce the
historical observed QBO time series. Pukite claims that:
"The rationale for this is that the faster lunar cycles will not cause the stratospheric winds to change direction, but if these
cycles are provoked with a seasonal peak in energy, then a longer-term multi-year period will emerge. This is a well-known
mechanism that occurs in many different natural phenomena."
In essence, he is adopting the principle laid out in Wilson [18] which proposed that effects of the long-term tides upon the
Earths's atmosphere (and oceans) are amplified by annual (i.e. seasonal) aliasing. This principle states that:
"The most significant of the large-scale systematic variations of the atmospheric surface pressure, on an inter-annual to
decadal time scale, are those caused by the seasons. These variations are predominantly driven by changes in the level of
solar insolation with latitude that are produced by the effects of the Earth's obliquity and its annual motion around the Sun.
This raises the possibility that the lunar tides could act in "resonance" with (i.e. subordinate to) the atmospheric pressure
changes caused by the far more dominant solar driven seasonal cycles. With this type of simple resonance model, it is
not so much in what years do the lunar tides reach their maximum strength, but whether or not there are peaks in the
strength of the lunar tides that re-occur at the same time within the annual seasonal cycle."
There are two steps to Pukite's model:
(1) Determine the lunar gravitational potential as a function of time, and
(2) plot the potential in units of 1 month or 1 year.
Pukite indicates that this last part is critical, as that emulates the aliasing required to remove the sub-monthly
cycles in the lunar forcing.

Finally, he says that:

"If one then matches this plot against the QBO time-series, you will find a high correlation coefficient. If the lunar
potential is tweaked away from its stationary set of parameters, the fit degrades rapidly."
7. It known that persistent Westerly Wind Bursts associated with the penetration of Madden Julian Oscillations into the
Western Pacific ocean are responsible for wide-spread reversal of the westerly Equatorial trade winds which are associated
with the onset or triggering of El Nino events.
Lian et al. [22] and Chen et al. [23] have shown that for every major El Nino event since 1964, the drop off in easterly
trade wind strength has been preceded by a marked increase in westerly wind bursts (WWB) in the western equatorial
Pacific Ocean. These authors contend that the WWB generate easterly moving equatorial surface currents which transport
warm water from the warm pool region into the central Pacific. In addition, the WWB create down-welling Kelvin waves in
the western Pacific that propagate towards the eastern Pacific where they produce intense localized warming [McPhaden
24]. It is this warming that plays a crucial in the onset of El Nino events through its weakening of the westerly trade winds
associated with the Walker circulation.
Wilson [2016] found that the times when Pacific-Penetrating Madden Julian Oscillations (PPMJO) are generated in the
Western Indian Ocean are related to the phase and declination of the Moon. This findings provide strong observational
evidence that the lunar tidal cycles are primarily responsible for the onset of El Nino events. (This paragraph was
updated on 11/01/2015)

References
[1] Keeling, CD. and Whorf, TP. (1996), Decadal oscillations in global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide. In:
Natural climate variability on decade-to-century time scales. Climate Research Committee, National Research Council.
Washington, DC:The National Academies., pp. 97-110.

[2] Keeling, CD. and Whorf, TP. (1997), Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides. Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences., 94(16), pp. 8321-8328.
[3] Copeland, B. and Watts, A. (2009), Evidence of a Luni-Solar Influence on the Decadal and Bidecadal
Oscillations in Globally Averaged Temperature Trends, retrieved at:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillationsin-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/
[4] Brohan, P. Kennedy, J. Harris, I. Tett, S. Jones, P. (2006), Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed
temperature changes: a new data set from 1860., Journal of Geophysical Research., 111, D12106, data retrieved
at: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/
[5] Bell, PR. (1981), The combined solar and tidal influence on climate. In: Sofia, SS, editor. Variations of the Solar
Constant. Washington, DC: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, pp. 241256.
[6] Svensmark, H. (1998), Influence of Cosmic Rays on Earth's Climate"., Physical Review Letters 81 (22), pp. 50275030
[7] Svensmark , H. (2007), Astronomy & Geophysics Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges., Astronomy &
Geophysics, 48 (1), pp. 1.181.24.
[8] Laken, B., Palle, E., and Miyahara, H., (2012), A Decade of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer: Is a
SolarCloud Link Detectable?, Journal of Climate, (25), pp. 4430 - 4440,
retrieved at: journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00306.1
[9] Sidorenkov, NS. (2000), Chandler Wobble of the poles as part of the nutation of the Atmosphere, Ocean,
Earth system. Astron Rep, 44 (6), pp. 414-419.

[10] Sidorenkov NS. (1992), Excitation mechanism of Chandler polar motion. Astron J., 69 (4), pp. 905-909.
[11] Sidorenkov N S. The effect of the El Nino Southern oscillation on the excitation of the Chandler motion of
the Earth's pole. Astron Rep 1997; 41(5): 705-708.
[12] Sidorenkov NS. Physics of the Earths rotation instabilities. Astron Astrophys Transact 2005; 24(5): 425439.
[13] Sidorenkov N., (2014) The Chandler wobble of the poles and its amplitude modulation,
http://syrte.obspm.fr/jsr/journees2014/pdf/
[14] Li, G. (2005), 27.3-day and 13.6-day atmospheric tide and lunar forcing on atmospheric circulation., Adv Atmos Sci.,
22(3), pp. 359-374.
[15] Li, G and Zong, H. (2007), 27.3-day and 13.6-day atmospheric tide., Sci China (D), 50(9), pp. 1380-1395.
[16] Li, G, Zong, H, Zhang, Q. (2011), 27.3-day and average 13.6-day periodic oscillations in the earths rotation rate and
atmospheric pressure fields due to celestial gravitation forcing., Adv Atmos, 28(1), pp. 45-58.
[17] Krahenbuhl D.S., Pace, M.B., Cerveny, R.S., and Balling Jr, R.C. (2011), Monthly lunar declination extremes
influence on tropospheric circulation patterns., J Geophys Res, 116, pp. D23121-6.
[18] Wilson, I.R.G. (2012), Lunar Tides and the Long-Term Variation of the Peak Latitude Anomaly of the Summer SubTropical High Pressure Ridge over Eastern Australia., The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 6, pp. 49-60.
[19] Wilson, I.R.G. (2013), Long-Term Lunar Atmospheric Tides in the Southern Hemisphere, The Open Atmospheric
Science Journal, 7, pp. 51-76.
[20] Wilson, I.R.G. (2014), Evidence that Strong El Nino Events are Triggered by the Moon - IV,
retrieved at:
http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/evidence-that-strong-el-nino-events-are_13.html
[21] Pukite, P. (2106), Pukite's Model of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, submitted to Phys. Rev.
Letters, retrieved at:
http://contextearth.com/2015/10/22/pukites-model-of-the-quasi-biennial-oscillation/
[22] Lian, T., D. Chen, Y. Tang, and Q. Wu (2014), Effects of westerly wind bursts on El Nio:
A new perspective, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, pp. 35223527.
[23] D. Chen, Y., T. Lian, C. Fu, Cane F.A., Y. Tang, Murtugudde, R., X. Song, Q. Wu and L. Zhou (2015), Strong
influence of westerly wind bursts on El Nio diversity, Nature Geoscience, 8 (5), pp. 339 345.
[24] McPhaden, M. J. (1999), Genesis and Evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino, Science, 283, pp. 950 954.
[25] Wilson, I.R.G. (2016) Do lunar tides influence the onset of El Nino events via their modulation of Pacific-Penetrating
MAdden Julian Oscillations?, submitted to the The Open Atmospheric Science Journal.

Saturday, October 31, 2015

Part B: Are Lunar Tides Responsible for Most of the Observed Variation in the
Globally Averaged Historical Temperature Anomalies?
RETRACTION: The claim made in this blog post that the peak differential lunar force across the Earth's diameter
(that is parallel to the Earths equator) produces an annually aliased signal with a period of 20.58 years is incorrect.
The 384 day period in the peak differential lunar tidal force data that is used to establish 20.58 year bi-decadal
period only exists for periods around the 4.53 year long term maxima in lunar tidal force. It turns out that the long
term mean spacing between the short-term peaks in the differential tidal force is close to length of the Full Moon
cycle, which is equal to 1.12743 tropical years. Hence, the 384 day spacing between peaks does not last long enough
for the beat period of 20.58 years to physically meaningful. I would like to thank Paul Vaughan for pointing out this
stupid mistake upon my part. In my next post, I will explain why the bi-decadal oscillation is more likely to be
explained by a 20.85 tropical year period related to annual aliasing of the lunar tropical and anomalistic months.

PART B: A Mechanism for the Luni-Solar Tidal Explanation

A. Brief Summary of the Main Conclusions of Part A.
Evidence was presented in Part A to show that the solar explanation for the Quasi-Decadal and Bid-Decadel
Oscillations was essentially untenable. It was concluded that the lunar tidal explanation was by far the most probable
explanation for both features.
In addition, it was concluded that observed variations in the historical world monthly temperature anomalies data were
most likely determined by factors that control the long-term variations in the ENSO phenomenon.
Further evidence was presented in Part A to support the claim that the ENSO climate phenomenon was being primarily
driven by variations in the long-term luni-solar tidal cycles. Leading to the possibility that variations in the luni-solar tides
are responsible for the observed variations in the historical world monthly temperature anomaly data

Copeland and Watts [1] did a sinusoidal model fit to the first difference of the HP smoothed HadCRUT3 global monthly
temperature anomaly series and found that the top two frequencies in the data, in order of significance, were at 20.68 and
9.22 years.
It is generally accepted that the ~ 9.1 - 9.2 year spectral feature is caused by luni-solar tidal cycles associated with the
first sub-multiple of the 18.6 year Draconic cycle 9.3 (=18.6/2) = 9.3 years, possibly merged with the 8.85 year lunar
apsidal precession cycle, such that (8.85 + 9.3)/2 = 9.08 years . Hence the question really is:

Can a plausible luni-solar tidal explanation be given for the 20.68 yr bi-decadal oscillation?
B. A Potential Luni-Solar Tidal Mechanism
Wilson [2] has found that the times when Pacific-Penetrating Madden Julian Oscillations (PPMJO) are generated in the
Western Indian Ocean are related to the phase and declination of the Moon. This findings provides observational evidence
to support the hypothesis that the lunar tidal cycles are primarily responsible for the onset of El Nino events.

If this finding is confirmed by further study then it would reasonable to assume that changes in the level of
generation of PPMJO's is related the changes in the overall level of tidal stress acting upon the equatorial
regions of the Earth. A good indicator of the magnitude of these tidal stresses is the peak differential luni-solar

tidal force acting across the Earth's diameter, that is parallel to the Earth's equator.
The peak differential tidal force of the Moon (dF) (in Newtons) acting across the Earth's diameter (dR =
1.2742 x 10^7 m), along a line joining the centre of the two bodies, is given by:

where G is the Universal Gravitational Constant (= 6.67408 x 10^-11 MKSI Units), M(E) is the mass of the Earth
(= 5.972 x 10^24 Kg), m(M) is the mass of the Moon (= 7.3477 x 10^22 Kg), and R is the lunar distance (in
metres) (N.B. that the negative sign in front of the terms on the right hand side of this equation just indicates that
the gravitational force of the Moon decreases from the side of the Earth nearest to the Moon towards the side of
the Earth that faces away from the Moon.)
Hence, the component of this peak differential lunar force (in Newtons) that is parallel to the Earth's equator is:

where R is the distance of the Moon and Dec(M) is the declination of the Moon.

In like manner, the component of the peak differential tidal force of the Sun (in Newtons) acting across the
Earth's diameter that is parallel to the Earth's equator is:

where Rs is the distance of the Earth from the Sun and Dec(S) is the declination of the Sun.

The relatively rapid daily rotation of the Earth compared to the length of lunar month means that the effects
upon the Earth of two differential tidal forces only changes slightly during any given single day. Hence, it is
possible to define a slowly changing peak luni-solar differential tidal force acting across the Earth's diameter that
is parallel to the Earth's equator, by simply adding each of the two forces above vectorially.
The geocentric solar and lunar distances, solar and lunar declinations and Sun-Earth-Moon angles were
calculated at 0:00, 06:00, 12:00, and 18:00 hours UTC for each day designated period (JPL Horizons on-Line
Ephemeris System v3.32f 2008, DE-0431LE-0431 [3].) . This data was then used to calculate the peak
differential luni-solar tidal force using the equations cited above. Figure 1a shows the calculated peak differential
luni-solar tidal force for the period from Jan 1st 1996 to Dec 31 2015:

Figure 1a

This plot shows that luni-solar differential tidal force reaches maximum strength roughly every 4.53 years (i.e
every 60 anomalistic lunar months = 1653.273 days or every 56 Synodic lunar months = 1653.713 days), with
the individual short term peaks near these 4.53 year maximums being separated by almost precisely 384 days
(or more precisely 13 Synodic months = 383.8977 days). In order to emphasize this point, figure 1a is re-plotted
in figure 1b for the time period spanning from 2000.0 to 2004.5:
Figure 1b.

C. Discussion
What figures 1a and 1b show is that peak luni-solar differential tidal stress acting upon the Earth's equatorial
regions reaches maximum strength roughly every a 4.53 years. This is very close to half the 9.08 year quasidecadal oscillation. It also shows that around these 4.53 peaks in tidal stress, the individual peaks in tidal stress
are almost precisely separated by 13 Synodic months.

Wilson [4] has proposed that:

"The most significant large-scale systematic variations of the atmospheric surface pressure, on an inter-annual to decadal
time scale, are those caused by the seasons. These variations are predominantly driven by changes in the level of solar
insolation with latitude that are produced by the effects of the Earth's obliquity and its annual motion around the Sun. This
raises the possibility that the lunar tides could act in "resonance" with (i.e. subordinate to) the atmospheric pressure
changes caused by the far more dominant solar-driven seasonal cycles. With this type of simple resonance model, it is
not so much in what years do the lunar tides reach their maximum strength, but whether or not there are peaks in the
strength of the lunar tides that re-occur at the same time within the annual seasonal cycle."
In essence, what Wilson [4] is saying is that we should be looking at tidal stresses upon the Earth that are in resonance
with the seasons. (i.e. annually aliased). If we do just that, we find that the peaks in luni-solar differential tidal stressing
every 13 synodic months (= 383.8977 days) will realign with the seasons once every:
(383.8977 x 365.242189) / (383.8977 - 365.242189) = 7516.06.07 days = 20.58 tropical years

This is remarkable close to the 20.68 year bi-decadal oscillation seen by Copeland and Watts [1] in
their sinusoidal model fit to the first difference of the HP smoothed HadCRUT3 global monthly temperature anomaly
series.
Hence, it is plausible to propose that the 9.08 year quasi-decadal oscillation and the 20.68 year bidecadal oscillation can both be explained by variations in the tidal stresses on the Earth's equatorial
oceans and atmosphere caused by the peak differential luni-solar tidal force acting across the Earth's
diameter that is parallel to the Earth's equator.
Keeling and Whorf [5] gives support to this hypothesis by noting that the realignment time (or beat period)
between half of a 20.666 tropical year bi-decadal oscillation and the 9.3 year Draconic cycle is simply 5 times
the 18.6 year Drconic cycle:
(10.333 x 9.30) / (10.333 - 9.30) = 93.02 years = 5 x 18.6 tropical years
which is a well known seasonal alignment cycle of the lunar tidal cycles where:
1150.5 Synodic months = 33974.94253 days = 93.020 tropical years
1233.0 anomalistic months = 33974.76015 days = 93.020 tropical years
1248.5 Draconic months = 33974.45667 days = 93.019 tropical years
which only about 7.3 days longer than precisely 93.0 tropical years.
Keeling Whorf [5] claimed that 93 period lunar tidal cycle is able to naturally re-produce the hiatus in the quasidecadal oscillations of the rate-of-change of the smoothed global temperature anomalies that matched observed
between 1900 and 1945.
APPENDIX
It could be argued, however, that Keeling and Whorf's figure 03 [reproduced as figure 02 below] actually
points a hiatus period between about 1920 and 1950's as this is the period over which the phase changes
between the mean solar sunspot number and the peaks in their temperature anomaly curve:

Figure 2

Wilson [6] made a more accurate determination of the times at which the lunar-line-of-nodes aligned with the
Earth-Sun line roughly once every 9.3 years {the blue line in figure 3 below] and when the lunar line-of-apse
aligned with the Earth-Sun lineonce every 4.425 years [the brown line in figure 3 below]. They then used this to
determine the 93 year cycle over which these two alignment cycles constructively and destructively interfered
with each other [the red line in figure 3 below]. showing that the period of destructive interference actually
extended from about 1920 to 1950's.
Figure 3

Finally, Wilson [6] presented some data that showed that there was circumstantial evidence that the 93 year
lunar tidal cycle does in fact influence temperature here on Earth.

Wilson [6] found that "...when the Draconic tidal cycle is predicted to be mutually enhanced by the
Perigee-Syzygy tidal cycle there are observable effects upon the climate variables in the South Eastern part of
Australia. Figure 4 below shows the median summer time (December 1st to March 15th) maximum temperature
anomaly (The Australian BOM High Quality Data Sets 2010), averaged for the cities of Melbourne (1857 to 2009
Melbourne Regional Office Site Number: 086071) and Adelaide (1879 to 2009 Adelaide West Terrace
Site Number 023000 combined with Adelaide Kent Town Site Number 023090), Australia, between 1857 and
2009 (blue curve).
Superimposed on figure 4 is the alignment index curve from figure 3, (the red line). A comparison between
these two curves reveals that on almost every occasion where there has been a strong alignment between the
Draconic and Perigee-Syzygy tidal cycles, there has been a noticeable increase in the median maximum
summer-time temperature, averaged for the cities of Melbourne and Adelaide. Hence, if the mutual reinforcing
tidal model is correct then this data set would predict that the median maximum summer time temperatures in
Melbourne and Adelaide should be noticeably above normal during southern summer of 2018/19."
Figure 4

References
[1] Copeland, B. and Watts, A. (2009), Evidence of a Luni-Solar Influence on the Decadal and Bidecadal Oscillations in
Globally Averaged Temperature Trends, retrieved at:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-inglobally-averaged-temperature-trends/
[2] Wilson, I.R.G. (2016) Do lunar tides influence the onset of El Nino events via their modulation of Pacific-Penetrating
MAdden Julian Oscillations?, submitted to the The Open Atmospheric Science Journal.
[3] JPL Horizons on-Line Ephemeris System v3.32f 2008, DE-0431LE-0431 JPL Solar System Dynamics
Group, JPL Pasadena California, available at: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi, Jul 31, 2013.
[4] Wilson, I.R.G. (2012), Lunar Tides and the Long-Term Variation of the Peak Latitude Anomaly of the Summer SubTropical High Pressure Ridge over Eastern Australia., The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 6, pp. 49-60.
[5] Keeling, CD. and Whorf, TP. (1997), Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides. Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences., 94(16), pp. 8321-8328.
[6] Wilson, I.R.G. (2013), Long-Term Lunar Atmospheric Tides in the Southern Hemisphere, The Open Atmospheric
Science Journal, 7, pp. 51-76.