Tuesday, July 23, 2013

IS THIS A PLANETARY SIGNATURE IN OUR CLIMATE SYSTEM?

The diagram below shows a Morlet Wavelet Transform of the winter (North Pacific Index) NPI index.
The North Pacific (NP) Index is the area-weighted sea level pressure over the region 30N-65N, 160E-140W. The
NP index is defined to measure interannual to decadal variations in the atmospheric circulation.
http://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/guidance/north-pacific-index-npi-trenberth-and-hurrell-monthly-and-winter

Reference: Shoshiro Minobe

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 26, No. 7, Pages 855-858, APRIL, 1, 1999
Resonance in bidecadal and pentadecadal climate oscillations over the North Pacific: Role in climatic regime shifts
Superimposed on this plot are the times of Jupiter-Saturn Conjunction (when these two planets are on opposite
sides of the Sun) which are spaced by 19.86 years, and the times of Jupiter-Saturn Opposition (when the two
planets are aligned on the same side of the Sun), also spaced by 19.86 years.
This result is supported by a comparable figure from:

ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, VOL. 20, NO. 5, 2003, PP. 694710 694
Joint Propagating Patterns of SST and SLP Anomalies in the
North Pacific on Bidecadal and Pentadecadal Timescales
ZHU Yimin and YANG Xiuqun

What we see in these figures is a remarkable match between the phase and period of Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions
and oppositions and the bi-decade cycle in the winter NPI index. This match is best between the years of 1947 and
1991.
It is also apparent that groups of three bi-decadal cycle in the Winter NPI index are nested in phase inside a pentadecadal cycle of roughly 55 years in length. You can see one complete penta-decadal cycle starting with a JupiterSaturn opposition in 1922 and ending three Jupiter-Saturn oppositions later in 1981.
Amazingly, the Sun's motion about the Barycentre (i.e. center-of-mass) of the Solar System undergoes one orbital
loop from one Jupiter-Saturn conjunction (or opposition) to the next every 19.86 years. Each orbital loop of the Sun
about the Barycentre rotates by roughly 120 degrees with respect to the stars, compared to its previous orbital loop.
Hence, it takes three orbital loops (i.e 3 x 19.86 = 59.6 years) for the Sun's Barycentric motion to rotate once with
respect to the stars.
This means that solar inertial motion (SIM) about the Barycentre mimics the three bi-decadal cycles nested [inphase] inside a longer penta-decadal cycle. The synchronization between these two phenomenon is quite
remarkable and suggests that there may be an underlying physical link.

Posted by Ninderthana at 9:42 AM

Reactions:

2 comments:
1.
weathercyclesMay 22, 2014 at 4:04 AM
Found a similar set up with schwabe triplets
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2014/05/15/schwabbe-triplets-and-earths-climate/
Reply
2.
NinderthanaJune 20, 2015 at 9:44 AM
weathercycles (aka Susan Morrow).
There is also a connection to the Moons tides and El Ninos that seems to match the dates you
have given for the Schwabe triplets:
1913
1944
1975

to
to
to

1944
1975
2008

is
is
is

schwabe
schwabe
schwabe

triplet
triplet
triplet

(15,16,17)
(18,19,20)
(21,2,23)

warming
cooling
warming

http://multi-science.atypon.com/doi/abs/10.1260/0958-305X.24.3-4.497
Wilson I. R. G., 2013, Are Global Mean Temperatures Significantly Affected by Long-Term Lunar
Atmospheric Tides?, Energy and Environment, 24, Issue 3-4, pp. 497 508.
In this paper, I claim that the ratio of the frequency/intensity of El Ninos to La Ninas has a ~ 60
year pattern that almost precisely match the ~ 60 cooling and warming pattern of the Earths mean
temperature. During the first ~ 30 years of this cycle the frequency/intensity of El Ninos dominate
that of the La Ninas where you get warming of the Worlds mean temperature. This is followed by
a ~ 30 period where the frequency/intensity of La Ninas dominate that of the El Ninos which
produces cooling.
I link the ~ 60 year cycle in the ratio of the frequency/intensity of El Ninos to La Ninas to the 31/62
year Perigee-Syzygy lunar tidal cycle.
A detailed investigation of the precise alignments between the lunar synodic [lunar phase] cycle
and the 31/62 year Perigee-Syzygy cycle between 1865 and 2014 shows that it naturally breaks
up five 31 year epochs each of which has a distinctly different tidal property. The first 31 year
interval starts with the precise alignment on the 15th of April 1870 with the subsequent epoch
boundaries
occurring
every
31
years
after
that:
Epoch
Epoch
Epoch
Epoch
Epoch

1
2
3
4
5

15th
18th
20th
23rd
25th

April
April
April
April
April

1870
1901
1932
1963
1994

to
to
to
to
to

18th
20th
23rd
25th
27th

April
April
April
April
April

1901
1932
1963
1994
2025

If you allow ~ 10 years lag for the effects of 31/62 year lunar tidal cycle to influence the
frequency/intensity of El Ninos to La Ninas (mainly due to time it takes the oceans current to
redistribute the excess heating in the tropics) then the boundaries between tidal epochs are
shifted
to:
Epochs
Epochs
Epochs
Epochs

1
2
3
4

and
and
and
and

2:
3:
4:
5:

1911
1942
1973
2004

which match in reasonably well with your Schwabe triplet years of 1913, 1944, 1975, and 2008.