small stock

2
140000

large stock
0

1.0
low sales
80000

mall stock

80000
80000

80000

0.0
high sales
140000
140000

140000

0.4
low sales
20000

arge stock

20000
140000

20000

0.6
high sales
220000
220000

220000

ID

Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6

Value

Prob
0

Pred
0
0
0

Kind
0D
0E
0E
1T
1T
2T
2T

NS

S1
2
2
2
0
0
0
0

1
3
5
0
0
0
0

S2

S3
2
4
6
0
0
0
0

S4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Col
9
4
14
2
7
12
17

Mark
1
5
5
9
9
9
9

harvest

EMV
2
44067.41

waiting
0

0.46705
botrytis mold
67200

67200

0.872392
strom

sell in bottle

0 45071.93

25680
0.53295
no botrytis

sell in bulk
1

25680

12840

grape directly
12840

44067.41

Event 15
0
0.333333
Event 16

harvest
0

34200

0
0.333333
Event 17

0.127608
not strom

2
0

37200

0.4
20%
36000
0.4
25%

wait for sugar

0

37200

42000
0.2
<20%
30000

34200

67200

67200

25680

25680

12840

12840

12840

12840

34200

34200

ell in bottle
25680

ell in bulk
12840

rape directly
12840

34200

36000

36000

42000

42000

30000

30000

36000

42000

30000

ID

Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

Value

Prob
0

Pred
0
0
0

Kind
0D
0T
0E
2E
2D
3T
3D
4E

NS

S1
2
0
2
2
2
0
3
3

S2
1
0
3
5
7
0
9
15

S3
2
0
4
6
8
0
10
16

0
0
0
0
0
0
11
17

0
0
0
0

4E
6T
6T
6T
8T
8T
8T
7T
7T
7T

3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

12
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

S4

S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Col
13
2
25
12
39
7
17
32

Mark
1
5
5
9
9
13
13
13

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

47
12
17
22
42
47
52
27
32
37

13
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17

This Version Not Licensed For Commercial Or Student Use

RiskSim 2.43
Date
Time
Workbook
Worksheet
Output Cell
Output Label
Seed
Trials
RiskSim 2.43

Trial for Evaluation

2/19/2016
10:59:37 AM
decision Tree.xlsx
Decision Tree (1)
$H$24
EMV
1538
100
Trial for Evaluation

Mean
St. Dev.
Mean St. Error
Minimum
First Quartile
Median
Third Quartile
Maximum
Skewness
RiskSim 2.43 Trial

41134.825779
7507.7482443
750.77482443
28783.252596
36127.549723
40301.999211
45506.972254
61620.655445
0.7142
for Evaluation

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation - Histogram

EMV
18
16
14
12
10

Frequency

8
6
4
2
0
25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

55000

60000

65000

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation - Cumulative Chart

1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6

Cumulative Probability

0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

65000

EMV

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

RiskSim Trial Version, Only For Evaluation

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

www.TreePlan.com

This Version Not Licensed For Commercial Or Student Use

RiskSim 2.43
Date
Time
Workbook
Worksheet
Output Cell
Output Label
Seed
Trials
RiskSim 2.43

Trial for Evaluation

2/19/2016
10:57:41 AM
decision Tree.xlsx
Decision Tree (1)
$H$24
EMV
1909
100
Trial for Evaluation

Mean
St. Dev.
Mean St. Error
Minimum
First Quartile
Median
Third Quartile
Maximum
Skewness
RiskSim 2.43 Trial

41766.912268
7769.8378165
776.98378165
26505.903854
36386.960396
39958.297965
46772.049068
63014.451969
0.8616
for Evaluation

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation - Histogram

EMV
25

20

15

Frequency
10

0
25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

55000

60000

65000

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation - Cumulative Chart

1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6

Cumulative Probability

0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

65000

EMV

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

RiskSim Trial Version, Only For Evaluation

RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

www.TreePlan.com

variable
rieslling cases produced
bottle produce (12 bottle)
price pe bottle for not quite ripe
price per bottole if botrytis didnt form
price sell in bulk
price sell in grapes
price sell 25% sugar wine
price sell 20% sugar wine
price sell low level acid
price botrytis riesling
addition in volume if barries swell
reduction in volume of botrytis resling

probability
probability
probability
probability
probability

probability
strom hilt
botrytis form if strom hit
low acid wine
25% sugar wine
20% sugar wine

value
1000
12000
2.85
2
1
1
3.5
3
2.5
8
0.07
0.3
value
0.5329497019
0.4670502981
0.2
0.4
0.4

(harvest langsung)
half price from B5
half price from B5

pengurangan volume = 0,3 (jadi nett-nya 0,7)

=RAND()
=RAND()
=(1-B18)/2
=(1-B18)/2