ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

Weather Conditions and Air Pollution

Saon Ray (Sray@icrier.res.in) is a Senior Fellow at the Indian Council for Research on International
Economic Relations, New Delhi and Nandini Kumar (kumar.nandini@gmail.com) is an independent
consultant based in Delhi.
To understand the impact of the odd-even policy in Delhi researchers will need to take into account
prevailing weather conditions of not just Delhi, but also its outskirts and neighbouring states.
Since 1 January 2016, the odd-even formula has been implemented for private vehicles in Delhi for
15 days. The most visible impact of this scheme has been on road congestion, with noticeable
declines at major intersections. However some have claimed that air pollution has gone up during
this period, leading to the question whether this scheme worked at all. This article argues that
there is a host of benefits even if Particulate Matter (PM)2.5 does not go down, and points out some
of these benefits.
Sources of Air Pollution
What leads to air pollution in cities? Air pollution can be caused by the emission of toxic
vapours/gases and particles. Particles can be of different sizes, with the ones under 2.5 microns
(10-6 m), also called fine particulate matter, that do not settle to the ground under gravity, causing
the most damage to human health. The very small size of these particles causes them to be inhaled
deep into lungs with our bodies natural mechanisms unable to filter them. Greenstone et al (2015)
have estimated that 660 million people or half of Indias population live in areas that exceed Indias
National Ambient Air Quality standard for fine particulate pollution.[i] The effects of toxic gases
such as the oxides of nitrogen, carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide and ozone, on health are well
established too (Central Pollution Control Board 2008).
Several studies undertaken by the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) and Centre for Science
and Environment (CSE) have shown that for several of the major cities in India, the sources of air
pollution include the transport sector, industry and power plants and dust, burning of leaves, etc.
The transport angle has been discussed at great length in these studies. Both natural and manmade
factors play an important contribution to the PM build up in a city.
World Health Organization (WHO) finds that 13 of the 20 cities with the worst particulate matter
PM2.5 are in India. Delhi recorded an average PM10 of 286 mg/ m3 in 2010, and had the worlds
highest levels of average PM10 during 200810. Similarly, the PM2.5 of level of 153 mg/ m3 in 2013, is
also the highest in the world. (WHO: Ambient Air Pollution database, update 2014).
Delhi has more cars than Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata together. Reddy and Balachandra (2010)
note that the per capita travel by cars was 331 passenger kilometre (pkm) in 23 urban areas in
2005, with Delhi reporting 894 pkm against the national average of car use per capital of 58.6 pkm.
Consequently, emissions from the transport sector are the highest in Delhi. Ramachandra et al
(2015) show that during the year 200910, the total number of registered vehicles in Delhi was
6451883, out of which there were about 20 lakh cars and jeeps and 40.5 lakh motor cycles, mopeds
and scooters. The emissions from these registered vehicles were 10867.51 gigagrams (Gg) which

ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

was about 30% of the total emissions in this sub category.

The number of private cars for which the odd even policy is applicable (2587887 as of 31 December
2013) is about a third of the total registered vehicles (8140695) in the city (based on data from the
Transport Department, Government of National Capital Territory)hence the impact of the policy
is limited to that extent. Moreover compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles were exempt. Efforts to
contain the pollution from other sources need to be pursued as well.
Fate of Pollutants
When pollutants are emitted, they stay in the air for a while and then get deposited on the ground,
leavesany surface, in fact, or, then are carried elsewhere by air. Some react with other
substances in the air to form secondary pollutants (so called because they are not emitted directly).
Most of these secondary pollutants are constituents of PM2.5, so when the number of vehicles on the
roads is reduced, fewer pollutants are released and fewer secondary particles are formed.
The Effect of Weather on Pollution
Many newspapers have reported that pollution levelsmostly those of the particulate matter of size
2.5 microns, have not declined despite the imposition of the odd-even policy. One of the reasons
that particulate matter of the fine kind continues to remain in the air of Delhi, is that such particles
are present in the air all over North India. Gupta, et al (2006) report worst air quality in Delhi using
satellite and ground measurement over several global locations including Delhi.
The answer lies in the prevailing weather conditions. While the sources remain more or less the
same, better circulation in the summer (more sunshine and windier conditions than the winter)
allows the pollutants to be carried elsewhere; they do not sit at ground level, but move either
higher up in the air or to some other places, by horizontal movements of air, that is, via breeze or
winds.[ii] So, rural areas receiving air from Delhi suffer the same effects that Delhis residents
doperhaps in a less severe manner.
A glance at any satellite image taken during the winter months of 2015 and 2016 will show a brown
haze over Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Bihar and West Bengal. What is being experienced in Delhi is only
part of a large-scale, regional problem. In fact, the odd-even experiment is showing quite clearly
that the whole of North India (and probably other parts of the region as well) is polluted. So, the
regional concentrations of PM2.5 contribute a large amount, possibly more than 50%, to what is
observed in Delhicontrolling air quality in this large, densely populated urban area, will
necessitate controlling pollution over all states north, south east, and west of Delhi, which can only
be good news for humans and crops (Air Quality Expert Group 2012).
Benefits of the Odd-even Policy
To summarise, weather and climate cannot be changed, but controlling the sources of pollution is in
our hands. The odd-even policy has had the following excellent spin-offs. First, it has raised
awareness of air quality among Delhis residents and suggests that the mostly compliant population
recognises air pollution as a problem and is willing to cooperate even though they (people) are put
to some inconvenience. Second, it has taken half the private cars off the roads, reducing traffic and
congestion. As cars move relatively faster, they use less fuel and burn it more efficiently. Idling
engines at traffic lights and start-stop traffic are associated with greater pollution from exhaust
pipes. Commuters and other kinds of travellers reach their destinations faster, wasting less time

ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

and, it may be said, reducing mental and physical stress. Two-wheeler drivers, cyclists, pedestrians
and anyone outside an enclosed area are exposed less to pollutants, too.
There are reports over the last three to four decades, containing measurements from Mumbai,
Delhi and occasionally other cities, too, but these are sporadic and do not cover all aspects of air
quality. It is very important to measure the levels of PM2.5 systematically all over India and establish
how much sources outside Delhi contribute to its observed levels. Apart from knowing how good or
bad air quality is, it is important to know the sources of each of the components mentioned above.
This should be the first step towards any action seeking to control pollution of any kind. It is hard to
find systematic studies reporting emission sources and their strengths for any region in India.
If one source, that is, vehicular exhaust, is reduced, the others still remain. The odd-even policy is a
temporary measure to curb pollution. Other more permanent measures need to be taken to make
the quality of air in Delhi liveable.
Notes
[i] This includes Delhi, and can be seen on page 42, Greenstone et al (2015).
[ii] A study of particulate air pollution in six Asian cities including Chennai, Oanh et al (2006) found
that the levels of particulate pollution were higher in the dry season compared to the wet season.
References
Air Quality Expert Group (2012): Fine Particulate Matter in the United
Kingdom, http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/assets/documents/reports/cat11/1212141
150_AQEG_Fine_Particulate_Matter_in_the_UK.pdf.
Central Pollution Control Board (2008): Epidemiological Study on Effect of Air Pollution on Human
Health (adults) in Delhi, Environmental Health Series, EHS/1/2008, August, Delhi: Ministry of
Environment and Forests, Government of
India, http://cpcb.nic.in/upload/NewItems/NewItem_161_Adult.pdf.
Gupta, P, Christopher, S A, Wang, J, Gehrig, R, Lee, Y, and Kumar, N (2006): Satellite Remote
Sensing of Particulate Matter and Air Quality Assessment over Global Cities, Atmospheric
Environment, Vol 40, Issue 30, pp 58805892.
Greenstone, M, Nilekani, J, Pande, R, Ryan, N, Sudarshan, A, and A Sugathan (2015): Lower
Pollution, Longer Lives: Life Expectancy Gains if India Reduced Particulate Matter
Pollution, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol 50, No
8, http://www.epw.in/journal/2015/8/special-articles/lower-pollution-longer-lives.html.
Oanh, Kim, N T, Upadhyay, N, Zhuang, Y H, Hao, Z P, Murthy, D V S, Lestari, P, Villarin, J T,
Chengchua, K, Co, H X, Dung, N T, and E S Lindgren (2006): Particulate Air Pollution in six Asian
Cities; Spatial and Temporal Distributions, and Associated Sources, Atmospheric Environment, Vol
40, No 18, pp 33673380.

ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

Ramachandra, T V, Aithel, B H, and K Sreejith (2015): GHG Footprint of Major Cities in

India, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol 44, pp 473495.
Reddy, S and P Balachandra (2010): Dynamics of Urban Mobility: A Comparative Analysis of
Megacities of India, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research Working Paper,
WP-2010-023, Mumbai.
Tags:
Delhi
Ambient Air Quality
Odd-even
Odd-even Policy
Suspended Particulate Matter
Particulate Matter
Central Pollution Control Board
Asian Brown Haze
Urban Studies
CNG
Compressed Natural Gas
Congestion
Pollution
Air Pollution