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Demographic growth
The worlds population was 2.5 billion in 1950. At present, there are over 7 billion people on earth, and by
2050, there will be over nine billion people according to UN projections.
As population rises, global passenger mobility and global freight volumes may triple by 2050 according to the
OECD.
Urbanization
In addition to this demographic factor there is also the specific phenomenon of urbanization on the
worldwide scale. In 1950, only one out of three people in the world lived in an urban area; they are now one
out of two, and they will be nearly two out of three in 2030, that is to say in almost 15 years. This has a
strong impact on the development of transportation needs for both public and private transit.
Economic growth
The countries that have achieved high and stable levels of economic development usually have high car
ownership levels. The motorization rates are especially high in North America, Australia, Europe and Japan
but it is not the case in Africa. The global average motorization rate is about 170 vehicles / 1000 inhabitants.
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IFPEN / IFP School 2014
What is to be expected in the future ? Projections this far ahead are fraught with uncertainty. For example, it
is unclear to what extent car ownership per capita will rise in emerging economies. At the moment, various
agencies think that it will be somewhere between European and Japanese levels with the exception of China,
for which they anticipate a dramatic growth.
The transport of goods will also increase. One must not forget that the bulk of world trade is carried by sea:
80% of goods pass through shipping. The major shipping routes of world trade today are the Panama Canal,
Suez Canal, the Strait of Malacca and Sunda and South East Asia. Air freight accounts for the rest of the
world trade. Air freight accounts for the rest of the world trade.
A bilateral trade flow of goods is the trade volume between two countries. The observation of projected
bilateral trade flows in twenty years time shows that there will be a strong development of the Asian region
especially in China.
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IFPEN / IFP School 2014
Personal Light Duty Vehicles are the leading component of transport oil demand and this is projected to
remain the case in 2035 in the New Policies Scenario, even though road freight and aviation will grow at
faster rates. Demand for oil to run PLDVs is determined not just by the underlying demand for personal
mobility (which reveals itself in the number of vehicles in circulation and the average distance driven), but
also by the choice of fuel or vehicle technology and the fuel efficiency of the vehicle. However, oil demand
for road transport will remain significant.
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IFPEN / IFP School 2014