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Lecture 1
The Impact of Technology
- Organizational offerings (products, services and their means of delivery)
- Organizational Operations (back-end processes)
- Customer and Worker expectations of organizations
The Tao Macro Trends (Big Issues)
- Convergence = concerns a process of emergence of boundary loss; of many tending
to one.
- Technological Determinism = To what extend is technology the driver of
organizational and social change? Technological Determinists argue that technology
and its invention change the world (socially, organizationally and culturally). Others,
taking more interest perspectives contend that technology is not an actor, and that
social and economic changes lead to new uses of and demands for technology (such as
smartphones or the internet).
- A non-deterministic point of view technology is not an organized institution; it
has no members or stated positions; nor does it initiate actions. How can we reasonably
think of this abstract, disembodied, quasi-metaphysical entity as the initiator of
actions capable of controlling human destiny? (Marx & Smith, cited in Adams 1996).
However
The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race. It
would take off on its own, and re-design itself at an ever increasing rateHumans, who
are liited by slow biological evolution, couldnt compete, and would be superseded
(Stephen Hawkins, December 2014).
-
Lecture 2
The Next Industrial Wave
- We know that we will have to produce more with less and with different raw materials
- This requires material wastage to be reduced, production to more closely match
demand, and more local manufacture.
- Many new technologies likely to be involved, including 3d printing, synthetic bio,
vertical farming and nanotech.
Traditional Manufacturing
- Metal components and wooden items = manufactured using subtractive machining (eg
cutting, drilling and lathing)
- Many other components and casings are either cast (metal) or injection or rotation
molded (plastics),
- The cost of producing molds and other production tooling is substantial.
- Subtractive machining wastes raw materials
- Traditional Manufacturing = majority of costs are often attributed to tooling, material
wastage, storage, transportation and other logistics.
3D Printing
- 3D Printers turn digital models into physical things by building them up in layers that
are typically about 0.1mm thin.
- Already we can 3D print in hundreds of materials, including plastics and metals.
- By 2020, most 3D printed objects will no longer be prototypes.
- Already the aerospace, automotive and medical sectors are using 3d printing to make
some final products or parts thereof.
Potential Benefits
- Digital product (and spare part) storage and transportation, with on-demand
production.
- Mass local manufacturing (localization)
- Mass customization and personalization
- Time, Material and energy savings.
- Reduced requirement to assemble final parts.
- Facilitation of rapid product innovation.
- Facilitation of low-cost access to market.
3D Printing Technologies
- Material extrusion (squirting out a semi-solid)
- Photopolymerization (solidifying a liquid with light)
- Vat phoyopolymerization (eg sterelithography)
- Material jetting (polyjet)
- Granular materials binding (sticking powders)
- Binder jetting
- Powder bed fusion (eg laser sintering)
- Directed energy deposition
- Sheet Lamination (sticking cut sheets together)
Rapid Prototyping
- 3D printers to create concept models or functional copies of new products to allow
design, fit or function to be assessed.
- Molds & Tooling Use of 3d printers to create traditional manufacturing
infrastructure.
3D Sand Casting: ExOne Cases
- US Navy compressor pumps for Ohio-class submarines lead time reduced from 51
weeks to 8 weeks (compared to pattern-based sand casting), and cost from 29k to 18k.
- US Navy Marine Tail cones lead time cut from 25 weeks to 10 weeks; cost from 20k
to 12.6k
Lecture 3
Synthetic Biology & Vertical Farming
Biotech & Genetic Engineering
- Natural fermentation processes have been used for centuries to produce (eg
Cheese/Yoghurt).
- Grafting + selective breeding has also been used to manipulate plants and animals.
- However, GM is increasingly used to manipulate plants, animals + micro-organisms,
and hence to expand biotechnology application.
- The first GMO was modified E.Coli bacterium created by Cohen & Boyer in 1973.
GM Milestones
1974 = Transgenic mice with leukemia genes
1982 = US FDA approved first genetically engineered Drug (Insulin from Genentech)
1986 = GM Tobacco created (luciferase gene inserted from a firefly)
1994 = Calgenes Flavr Savr tomato.
1995 = Montanso introduces GM corn.
2006 = Omega 3 pig created.
Going Further = Today 90% of US corn, cotton and soybeans is GM.
On 19th November 2015, the AquaAdvantage Salmon from Aquabounty tech was licensed for
human consumption by the FDA.
Synthetic Biology uses engineering principles to design and construct living things or
synthetically modified organisms (SMO) from standardized parts.
The programming of DNA and reformatting of genetic circuitry has created a paradigm shift
whereby the analysis of biology is being supplanted by its synthesis (Interexon).
- Future biofactories may cultivate fuels, plastics, medicines, bioelectronics and ar
more.
- By 2018, Synbio will be worth $11.9bn
The Engineering Principle
- The key engineering principle of modular standardization is core to SynBio, with the
new discipline looking at living systems not as complex objects, but as sources of
amazing building blocks ERASynBio 2014.
- The Registry of Standard Biological Parts now catalogues BioBricks online, while the
Synthetic Biology Open Language provides a standard data format.
- There is now an open source SynBio design software
SynBio: The Road Ahead
- Gene circuits have already been created, including transcriptors, so in the future we
may grow bioelectronics
- Other applications will involve SMO micro organisms, plants or animals.
- In May 2010, JVCI created first synthetic bacterial cell.
- In May 2015, Sister company Synthetic Genomics launched a desktop DNA printer.
SynBio Applications Existing products already include: Biodiesel Biofene, aviation fuel,
and the moisturiser neossance squalene from Amyris.
Solazymes algae oil used in soaps
Synthetic artemisinin malaria treatments.
Anticipated Products Include Fermented Bioplastics including PLA fermented from
glucose by E Coli.
Synthetic Spider silk, rubber and acrylics.
A growing Industry may witness new business model where synthetic micro organisms
turn organic feedstocks into industrial materials.
Uni of Cambridge + John Innes have established the Open Plant Initiative to develop plans
synthetic bio.
Factories on legs have also already been created. Including transgenic Spider goats by
Randy Lewis.
The commercial and logistical viability of vertical farms may/will alter post Peak Oil, as
food transportation becomes less possible.
Potential is highest in deserts and mega-cities.
New apps can now role out in a few weeks rather than six months, while other clients
can be onboarded quickly.
Lecture 4
NanoTechnology engineer physical matter on a molecular or atomic scale
Coined by Drexler, popularized in 186 book Engines of Creation
Nanotech is taken as any process that works at a level of precision between 1 and 100
nanometres.
Drexlers discipline = founding focus was on the potential for atomically precise
manufacturing (APN) using nanomachines.
Introducing NanoTech (Merkle)
Manufactured products = made from atoms. Properties depend on how atoms are arranged.
Re-arranged coal = diamond. Rearranged sand atoms = microchips
Current manufacturing methods are crude at molecular level.
Current Nanotech Applications
- In 2014 Project of Emerging Nanotechnologies reported over 1600+ nano enabled
consumer products.
- Including microprocessors, computer memory, OLED screens, batteries, solar cells, etc
The National Interest
In 2001 US gov launched 25 year National Nanotech initiative (NNI) = over $21bn invested.
Power of nanotech = rooted in its potential to transform and revolutionize multiple tech and
industry sectors, including aerospace, agriculture, biotechnology, homeland security and
national defence, energy, environmental improvement, information technology, medicine and
transportation (NNI).
Politics Take Control
60 national nanotech initiatives including the NCNST in China.
Nanotech = one of Chinas 12 mega projects under its Medium and Long Term Development
Plan 2006 2020
Drexler and others remain critical, arguing nanotech agenda has been hijacked and
broadened to embrace far more than nanomachines and APM.
In particular, Drexler contends that, in pursuit of short-term paybacks, critical (molecular)
sciences have been excluded.
Full Range of Possibilities
Top Down Nanotech: Fabrication of nanostructures eg microprocessors and microchips
Production and application of nanomaterials (eg carbon nanotubes and graphene)
Production and application of nanocomposites + nanocoatings.
Bottom Up Nanotech: APM via positional assembly (moving individual atoms around with
tools).
APM via self-assembly (no production tools).
Microprocessor Revolution
They are microprocessors and memory chips, manufactured using nanolithography.
Uses UV light to project images of circuits onto plastic films atop silicon wafers.
Chemical processes are used to develop the images into nanoscale components.
By 2020, likely to be 20 billion transistor CPUs with some components 100 atoms wide.
Spaced at 25 atom intervals.
Nanomaterials
Two nanotech materials with extraordinary potential are carbon nanotubes (CNTs) and
graphene.
Carbon nanotubes are hexagonal lattices of carbon atoms bonded into tubes a few
nanometres in diameter.
Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms arranged in honeycomb matrix.
Strong, flexible and have high electrical conductivity.
CNT + Graphene Applications
CNT o graphene electrodes = increase the capacity of future rechargeable batteries.
Graphene may also be used to make ultracapacitors (charge in seconds) as well as thin
flexible solar cells that may be able to be sprayed onto any surface.
Graphene could also increase LED efficiency = as well as replacing indium in OLED screens
allowing low power, flexible displays that do not incorp precious metals.
Nanocomposites + nanocoatings
Nanocomposites = traditional materials mixed with nanoscale additive.
Already plastics, paints and glass have been strengthened by adding CNTs, or made by
adding silver nanoparticles.
Graphene 3D ab = adding graphene to filaments in a bit to print working electronics.
Nanocoatings = nano additives stuck to surface of traditional materials.
EG titanium dioxide nanocoatings = used to make self cleaning glass.
Top Down Nanotech Implications
In next 10 years, improved materials are going to be available that will allow new products to
be made.
Economic implications = very significant.
Nanotex = makes coatings that make clothing water + stain resistant.
Positional Assembly
Form of bottom up nanotech uses large scale machinery to build things by moving around
individual atoms.
EG in 1989 IBM Eigler used a scanning tunnelling microscope to write the IBM logo in 35
xenon atoms.
Self Assembly
Self-assembly is a form of bottom-up nanotechnology or atomically precise manufacturing
(APM) in which nanoscale parts fit themselves together without the intervention of
production tools . . .
Protein Engineerng & Beyond . . .
Genetic engineers and synthetic biologists already build DNA chains using self-assembly.
We are also learning how to read, cut and paste molecular chains using enzymes (bacterial
molecular machines).
We know that some protein molecules such as those in animal muscle or bacteria serve
basic mechanical functions.
In time, protein engineers may therefore learn to use a construction kit of proteins to build
complex, nanoscale mechanical mechanisms using self-assembly methods.
Production Without Tools
September 2015, researchers at QMUL demonstrated the self-assembly of complex, tubular
tissue structures.
Artificially building complex shapes from proteins and peptides using the natural processes
of growth and healing (in simple terms, they mixed two chemicals to build a pre-determined
shape).
Molecular chains called foldamers (artificial proteins) are also starting to be created a bit
like nanoscale Lego blocks with pre-configured bumps and hollows.
The Self-Assembly Revolution?
Even though natural proteins are biologically fragile, in time we may use synthetic
alternatives to self-assemble products from resilient materials (like carbon nanotubes).
Future nanomachines or assemblers may use reactive molecules to bond atoms
together into virtually any stable pattern, adding a few at a time to the surface of a
work piece until a complex structure is complete (Drexler, 2013).
Assemblers would open a world of new technologies . . .
Future Nanofactories . . . ?
In theory, future nanofactories may be fed basic feedstocks that they would turn into
any product we could digitally define.
NB: We are not talking about nanobots!
But garage-sized nanofactories may assemble products from inexpensive,
microscopic parts, with production times measured in minutes (Drexler, 2013).
Within, robotic mechanisms would assemble parts made by smaller mechanisms, and
so on down to the nanoscale.
APM Possibilities (Drexler, 2013)
APM will lead to (yet another) reduction in the need to purchase production machinery,
and in turn to invest capital in the same.
Benefits may accrue in areas including:
Computing & communications
Construction materials
Energy
Transportation
Agriculture
APM developments should also help to reduce the volume of raw material demand.
Local Digital Manufacturing
3D printing, synthetic biology and nanotech molecular self-assembly all provide a
means of turning digital models into physical things.
The boundaries between these three technologies areas are also already blurring.
In the last few decades, the economy has been transformed by microprocessors.
In the next few decades, the convergence of 3D printing, synthetic biology and
nanotech may allow microfabricators to transform the economy again, and even
more radically . . .
Developments & Examples . . .
SynBio could overcome the layers problem.
The convergence of 3D printing and nanotechnology will provide control of material
composition as well as material placement.
A vat photopolymerization process called two-photon polymerization (2PP) already has
a resolution down to 100nm (0.0001mm).
At the University of Illinois, Martin D. Burke is developing the first molecular 3D
printer.
The Future Potential
A future world in which LDM is common would be very different from today.
Download-and-fabricate would have replaced manufacture-and-ship, while far more
products would be customized or personalized.
Most production materials and production technology could be organic.
Control of IP and personal production would be extremely difficult.
We would also have become reliant on AIs able to deal with the practicalities
of LDM
Lecture 5
Cloud Computing
What is Cloud Computing?
NIST: a model for enabling ubiquitous, convenient, on-demand network access to a
shared pool of configurable computing resources that can be rapidly provisioned and
released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction.
In other words, cloud computing is where software applications, data storage
and processing power are accessed over the Internet.
Cloud computing was a $47.4bn industry in 2013, and will be worth $107bn by 2017
(IDC).
The New Foundation . . .
Gartner now describe cloud services as the foundation for the digital business.
IDC see cloud as part of the Third Platform.
The first wave of computing was mainframes and dumb terminals.
The second wave was PCs, networking, relational databases and client services apps.
The third wave or Third Platform is build around cloud computing, social applications
(Web 2.0), big data and mobile computing.
Benefits & Characteristics
Cloud computing is dynamically scalable.
Cloud computing has no fixed costs.
(Users pay for defined quantities of measured service).
Cloud computing is collaborative.
Cloud computing is device-independent (and hence being driven by increasing device
count).
Cloud computing is task-centric.
The Basics SaaS, PaaS & IaaS
SaaS: customers only run those applications that their cloud supplier has on offer.
Great for (eg) office applications.
PaaS: customers create their own new applications, but only in a manner determined
by their cloud supplier.
IaaS: customers run any applications they please on cloud hardware of their own
choice. However, the level of choice/control depends on the IaaS variant
Windows Azure is a PaaS that allows applications to be run and data to be stored on
Microsoft data centre servers.
It has three parts the compute service, the storage service, and the fabric.
Software vendors may use Azure to develop their own SaaS offerings.
Enterprises may use Azure to build and run their own applications. Eg EasyJet use
Azure.
Microsoft claim that 57% of Fortune 500 companies are already using Azure . . .
Force.com
A PaaS offering from Salesforce.com.
Companies can build their own applications in Force.com, or purchase them from its
AppExchange marketplace.
According to an IDC study of ten 10 Force.com customers, on average applications were
built 4 to 5 times faster, cost savings were 54% ($560,000 per app), reliability was 97%
greater, payback was in three months, and the ROI was 721% over three years.
Infrastructure as a Service
Infrastructure as a service (IaaS) is where a vendor offers computer hardware in the
cloud on which their customers can store data and develop and run whatever
applications they please.
IaaS therefore (potentially) allows companies to move their existing programs and data
from their current servers into the cloud, and therefore to close down their own data
centres.
IaaS cannot be ignored . . . !
Infrastructure Components
The fundamental building block of computing infrastructure is the server.
Other infrastructure and related services include a data centre building, a reliable
power supply, cooling, protection against natural disasters, load balancing, security,
back-up, and 24/7 management & support.
In cloud data centres, individual, physical servers are blades housed in racks of up to
128 blades.
But virtualization is also applied . . .
Virtualization
After the Internet itself, virtualization is the most fundamental technology that allows
cloud computing to occur.
Using virtualization, any physical server can be split into any number of virtual servers,
each of which can then be used entirely independently by a different user.
IaaS customers may therefore be given the choice of purchasing dedicated physical
servers and/or virtual server instances.
This leads to the four categories of IaaS
Understanding IaaS Variants
IaaS: (Vendor) Private Cloud
The most risk-averse and potentially most secure form of IaaS.
Nothing is shared, but this makes private clouds costly and diminishes the benefits of
cloud computing.
However, advantages are still gained by having a companys servers housed in a
vendor's large data centre in which power, cooling, security and management
overheads are shared.
IaaS: Dedicated Hosting
Again means servers are not shared.
However, in comparison to a managed private cloud, no control exits over which server
blades are obtained.
(So this is very different to a private cloud). Offers dynamic scalability severs can be
added or removed very rapidly according to requirements (eg daily or hourly)
The Icelandic Government is planning for a cold rush based on the fact that servers in
Iceland can be cooled naturally and hence have a lower carbon footprint.
SaaS users can adopt low-power, thin client hardware, again saving energy.
Lecture 6
Artificial Intelligence and Robots
The Thinking Machine . . . ?
In 1950, Alan Turing came to define AI via his imitation game.
The Turing Test may now have been passed, but human intelligence is really not an
ideal AI benchmark.
The AAAI define AI an understanding of the mechanisms underlying thought and their
embodiment in machines.
This definition is Turing neutral, and accommodates forms of AI that are both broad
and narrow.
AI Frontiers
SHORT- & MEDIUM-TERM
Increased mental automation:
Next-generation computing interfaces (virtual assistants).
Cognitive computing (Big Data analytics).
Vision recognition.
Language translation.
Autonomous vehicles.
LONG-TERM
Artificial general intelligence (AGI).
But, within a decade, AI language translation is likely to bridge this last, great human
divide.
Key players currently include Google, Huawei and Microsoft (Skype translator).
Once again, cloud-based AI solutions that learn from their many users
provide the most effective platform.
Autonomous Vehicles
Already adaptive cruise control and self-parking are available.
By 2020, semi-autonomous cars are expected.
By 2025, high-autonomy vehicles (that still require a human driver) are likely.
By 2030, fully-autonomous vehicles may well exist requiring no human intervention.
The implications not least for mobility, liability, improved crashing,
insurance and security are currently far from clear . . .
Introducing Quantum Computing
Current computers (and AIs) are based on digital electronics that store and process
information using transistors.
These function as switches that can either be on or off, and hence represent 1 or
0.
According to Moores Law, the number of transistors on a chip doubles every 18
months.
But we will eventually reach physical limits.
Quantum computing may be the next big computing and AI development, with
data stored and processed on a sub-atomic scale.
How Quantum Computers Work (!)
Data is stored and processed in qubits.
These are represented by the quantum mechanical states of sub-atomic particles eg
the spin direction of an electron, or the polarization orientation of a photon.
These can exist in more than one state or superposition at a time, hence
representing 1 and 0 simultaneously.
By attaching a probability to each state, a qubit can theoretically store an infinite range
of values. (YES, THIS IS VERY STRANGE!)
Quantum Computing Implications
Massively parallel processing.
The hydrogen bomb of cyber warfare.
The hardware platform for mass surveillance via vision recognition and communication
monitoring? And for the first true AGIs?
D-Wave sold their first, 128 qubit D-Wave One quantum computer in 2011, a 512 qubit
D-Dave Two in 2013, and announced its 1,0000 qubit D-Wave Three in 2015.
Microsoft, IBM and the US Military are also large players in quantum computing.
Resistance or Consumer Demand?
General Motors have already talked about developing robots to do the other 50 per
cent of jobs . . .
Humanoid robots have the potential to replace a great deal of human labour . . .
But they could also help to care for an ageing population, assist with local
manufacturing and product repair, and free humans from undertaking drudgerous or
dangerous occupations.
Current Humanoid Robots . . .
Hondas ASIMO
Aldebarans NAO
Aldebarans and SoftBanks Pepper
Aldebarans Romeo
NASAs Valkyrie
Boston Dynamics (Googles) Atlas
OPEN SOURCE 3DP ROBOTS
InMoov
Poppy.
Lecture 7
Resources from Space
The Inevitable Limits . . .
As the Second Law of Thermodynamics informs us, closed systems cannot last forever.
Highlighting this fact, in 1972 a signature MIT study called The Limits to Growth focused
attention on the finite resources and carrying capacity of Planet Earth.
However, as Eric K. Drexler later noted, while The Limits to Growth was truly
inspirational, its environmental computer model was flawed because it was confined to
our single first planet . . .
Beyond Sustainability
In 1987 the UN Brundtland Commission defined sustainable development as
development that meets the needs of current generations without compromising the
ability of future generations to meet their own needs.
Such living for today without compromising tomorrow is a lovely idea. But, within a
closed system it is also thermodynamically impossible.
In addition to consuming less, our future survival therefore has to depend on
finding more resources . . .
Business Beyond the Earth
Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot live in the cradle forever (Tsiolkovsky).
Resources from space may sound like Sci-Fi !
But the frontier of space is opening up with more and more companies getting
involved.
There are incredible technological hurdles to overcome and it will require a great
many long-term investments.
But the real challenge is a change in narrative.
The following may be key future industries . . .
Space-Based Solar Power (SBSP)
Solar power is likely to be an important future form of alternative (not renewable!)
energy.
But solar power is limited by the weather, the seasons, geographic position and night
time!
A potential solution is to put solar power satellites (SPS) in geostationary orbit where
the available sunlight is c.10 times greater.
The paybacks from the resources we have to invest to generate solar power may be
most effectively utilized in space . . .
Toward Energy from Space
1979: NASA & US Department of Energy concept design for SPS Reference
System: proposed a 300 GW network of 60 satellites for $3 trillion. And it would have
been operational by now . . .
1997: NASA Fresh Looks study . . .
Late noughties: many commercial start-ups pre the financial crash . . .
2008-2011: A detailed report from the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA)
identified three possible architectures
SBSP: Challenges & Opportunities
Any SBSP system will require long-distance wireless power transmission (WPT) via
microwave or laser.
WPT research began in 1960s, with Japan (JAXA) currently at the forefront.
Substantial orbital access will also be required which NASA, SpaceX, Boeing & the
Russian and Chinese space agencies are developing.
Or we could use future space elevators . . .
SBSP Pioneers
Post Fukushima, Japan has been taking the lead.
In 2014, JAXA revealed a technology roadmap for a space-solar power system (SSPS)
to supply 1 GW commercially to an artificial island in Tokyo Bay.
By 2037, the roadmap predicts that a new SPS could be brought on stream each year.
There have also been some reports that China is mulling the development of SBSP.
Space-Based Digital Manufacturing . . .
Solar power satellites may potentially be manufactured in orbit from extraterrestrial
resources . . .
Already the Zero-G 3D printer from Made in Space has operated on the ISS.
In January 2016, Planetary Resources and 3D Systems even showcased a direct metal
3D print made from asteroid deposits(!).
One day, solar power satellites may be self-assembling, intelligent entities . . .
Moon Power
The next Moon Race (and helium-3 mining) could cement China as the worlds
dominant superpower and energy supplier.
And only China has the political structure to commit to such a long-term endeavour.
Potentially, future forms of WPT could be used to beam energy to the Earth from
nuclear reactors built on the Moon or from vast lunar solar arrays constructed from
lunar materials.
The Eight Continent could be the business frontier of the second half of this
century . . .
A Legal Minefield . . . ?
Who has the right to resources from space?
The UN Outer Space Treaty was opened by the US, UK and the Soviet Union in 1967.
This makes it clear that outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, is
not subject to national appropriation.
But potentially companies are excluded?
The (US) Space Resource Exploration and Utilization Act of 2015 facilitates the
commercial exploration and utilization of space resources to meet national needs . . . ?
Lecture 8
Crossing the Fourth Discontinuity . . .
According to Bruce Mazlish (1993), the fourth discontinuity is crossed (ie a binary divide
between human beings and machines ceases to exist) when:
It is no longer reasonable to think of human beings without machines, and
The same paradigms explain and govern the working of human beings and many
artificial mechanisms.
Synergy and Interdependence . . .
Already we cannot always separate humanity and technology on the basis of:
biological v. non-biological
natural v. artificial, or even
designed and manufactured v. evolved
In the coming decades, organizations are likely to start playing a
greater and greater role in proactive human evolution.
What their stakeholders deem acceptable will therefore become a major business
issue . . .
Genetic Medicine
For thousands of years medicine was based on physical repair techniques and the
ingestion or injection of standardized, generic chemicals.
The Human Genome Project began work in 1990 and completed its task in 2003.
Since that time, the age of post-genomic medicine has started to dawn.
This will involve increased genetic testing and the development of pharmacogenomics.
Longer-term, we will see generic therapies and the pursuit of genomic upgrading . . .
Genetic Testing
Already over 2,000 specific genetic tests can aid the diagnosis of over 1,000 diseases.
Increasingly, AI is going to be applied to map more and more complex genetic
relationships.
AI, nanotech and genomic developments are also likely to deliver mobile diagnosis.
For example, Nanobiosym have developed Gene-RADAR -- one of several contenders
for the Qualcom Tricorder XPRIZE.
23andMe and others are pioneering click-&-spit testing which may link to future
VA AIs.
Rapid Gene Sequencing
While Moores Law charts the increasing speed and falling cost of computing power,
so the Carlson Curve does the same for human genome sequencing.
Today, Illumina HiSeq X hardware can sequence 50 genomes a day at $1,000 a
genome, with a 72 hour cycle time.
In the 2020s, we may see genome sequencing for less than a dollar, or even a few
cents.
This could open up all kinds of medical and other possibilities including lick-andpay!
The Pharmacogenomic Revolution
Today, we know that different drugs work differently for different patients, but we
generally do not know why.
Pharmacogenomics matches drugs to patients based on their part- or whole genetic
profile.
This should improve patient outcomes while saving healthcare costs.
Already Assurex is offering its GeneSight pharmacogenomic tests.
The value of pharmaceutical back catalogue may skyrocket . . .
Future Genetic Therapies
While decades away, genetic therapies for diseases ranging from cancer to heart
disease and Alzheimers are being actively researched.
These aim to correct gene defects by (eg) inserting a healthy gene, most
commonly using vectors (GM viruses), or artificial liposomes or polymers that stick to
target cell surfaces.
Tests on X-SCID and cystic fibrosis patients have resulted in successes and failures,
while in other patients, vision has been improved and (in animals) colour blindness
cured.
Genomic Upgrading . . . ?
As gene therapy develops, what constitutes a disability will need to be questioned . . .
Already a synthetic virus called Repoxygen (that increases red blood cell production)
can be injected to increase the performance of manual workers or soldiers and
athletes . . .
Ought people to be allowed to have germline (as opposed to somatic) genetic therapies
that will pass on traits to future generations . . . ?
And ought animal genes ever to be introduced transgentically into humans . . . ?!
Designer Babies . . .
Already about 1.5 % in babies born in the UK & US are conceived in a laboratory via IVF.
Clinics like The Fertility Institutes in the US screen for 400+ hereditary diseases, and
offer sex selection with a 100% guarantee to enable family balancing.
They are also technically capable of offering the a choice of hair and eye colour (but do
not).
Swedin (2006) predicts (fears?) the emergence of a potential smart baby gap
between nations -- eg China and the United States . . .
Bioprinting
Bioprinting also known as tissue printing, organ printing or additive cellular
assembly uses a 3D printer to create living tissue.
In 2002, Professor Makoto Nakamura experimented with a standard Epson inkjet.
In 2003 he printed living cells by encasing them in sodium alginate and jetting them
into a calcium-chloride solution.
By 2008, his teams bioprinter was capable of producing 15 mm of biotubing a minute.
Bioprinting at Organovo
March 2008: Professor Gabor Forgacs bioprinted functional blood vessels and cardiac
tissue using cultured chicken cells.
Jan 2009: Organovo took delivery of the first commercial bioprinter: the NovaGen
MMX.
This technology injects bio-ink spheroids containing an aggregate of tens of
thousands of cells into a hydrogel bio-paper. Nature then takes over, and the cells
fuse (self-assemble).
In 2014, Organovo started selling bioprinted human liver tissue, and in 2015 partnered
with L'Oreal to develop human skin printing . . .
Organ Repair and Replacement
Organovo has already implanted bioprinted materials into rats, and has 3D printed
human arterial tissue.
Jeremy Mao at Columbia University has trialled bioprinted tooth scaffolds in rats and
joint-repair meshes in rabbits.
Ibrahim Tarik Oblate is working on printing thick tissues, like a human pancreas.
Anthony Alata at the Wake Forest Institute is conducting animal trials of in-situ
bioprinting to repair burns and other wounds.
Bioprinting Horizons
Organ donor waiting lists could disappear.
Keyhole techniques may be developed to remove old cells and bioprint new ones inside
a patient during an operation.
Like plastic surgery today, future in situ bioprinting may be used to augment the body
(eg printing new muscles), or even for cosmetic purposes (perhaps allowing face
printing!).
As technologies converge, we may also start to bioprint all kinds of materials that will
self-assemble and die on digital cue after printout.
Neural Interfaces . . .
Smart prosthetics like artificial limbs are rapidly advancing, and may already be
controlled using myoelectrics (eg the Open Bionics or Touch Bionics hands) and TMR.
Battelle have developed an implantable chip called Neurobridge that can link the
brain to a limb, bypassing a damaged spinal chord
The University of Washington and others are developing brain-computer interfaces
(BCIs) eg allowing subjects wearing EEG headsets to control the limbs of others over
the Internet.
Direct Brain Connections . . .
The BrainGate Consortium has been developing an implantable 4x4 mm electrode
array since 2002.
In 2004, this allowed a monkey to feed itself using a robotic arm.
In 2008, a human subject implanted with a BrainGate controlled a TV, lights and e-mail.
In 2012, two human BrainGate subjects successfully controlled robotic arms.
Are beyond-medical applications inevitable?
Beyond the Inorganic
Today cybernetic prosthesis are all inorganic.
But with developments in LDM, future organic augmentations (as opposed to repairs)
to the human body are a distinct possibility.
Pioneer Ibrahim Ozblat has suggested fitting multiple, small bioprinted pancreas organs
to improve on human biology.
And there may be many more ways to increase our fault tolerance and broader
functionality including nanobots & implantable biomodules.
Life Extension
Last century, improvements in diet, healthcare, living conditions and industrial
technologies roughly doubled global life expectancy.
This century, technologies including genetic medicine, bioprinting and (organic)
cybernetics could potentially do this again.
Anti-ageing is the fastest growing medical speciality around the globe (LEF).
The genes that control ageing are starting to be discovered. EG: the enzyme
telomerase may be developed as an anti-ageing therapy.
The Broader Implications
Ron Klatz has predicted that half of the baby boom generation will live healthily beyond
100.
Our bodies may become mash-ups of organic and inorganic parts at both the
traditional and nanoscales and of a wide variety of ages.
Where will the money/resources come from to pay for this?! Traditional retirement is
unlikely to remain an option. And/or will some people decide that (very) old age is not
worth the financial pre-commitment?
We will need new social and cultural norms.
Beyond the flesh . . . ?
A 1.19 billion EU undertaking called the Human Brain Project is seeking to build a
computer simulation of the hardware of the human brain.
They are intending to model the chemical and electrical function of each neuron in
order to deliver radical advancements in neuroscience, computing (AI) and medicine.
Already a few neuroscientists are speculating about the options for human minds to
live inside a machine
This could even involve an evolution into a modular species, with future space mariners
adopting different bodies as required . . .