Daily Market Reflection

20th May 2016

USDINR

Market Outlook
Indian Rupee lost its shine against the American currency for the sixth
consecutive session and also tested fresh two month low after minutes
from recent FOMC which suggested June rate hike. Emerging Asian
currencies lost ground on Thursday, with China's yuan falling to levels
not seen since early March.
UK retail sales for April came in much stronger-than expected and

Reference Rate

staged a solid rebound from the drop seen previously. It jumped 1.3% in
April, while sales excluding fuel picked up even more by 1.5%.

Currency

Date
Date
18-05-16 19-05-16
66.9131
67.2307
75.4847
75.4530
96.6091
98.0493
61.2500
61.0100

Fundamental News

Dollar pauses after surge to 3-week high.

Revived US rate hike view hits Asia FX; yuan at 2-1/2

month low.

South Korea won falls to near 9-week low; stocks extend

losses.

USDINR
EURINR
GBPINR
JPYINR

Currencies vs $
Currency

UK retail sales rebound sharply in April, beat estimates.

Rupee
Dollar Index
Euro
Pound
Japanese Yen

Currency Future
Currency

Date

Date

% Chg

18-05-16

19-05-16

USDINR

67.1000

67.4550

+0.53%

EURINR

75.7500

75.6450

-0.14%

GBPINR

97.4025

98.6450

+1.28%

JPYINR

61.3825

61.4575

+0.12%

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Day 1

ALL

G7 Meetings

11:30am

EUR

German PPI m/m

0.2%

0.0%

1:30pm

EUR

Current Account

19.6B

19.0B

3:30pm

GBP

-13

-11

6:30pm

USD

7:30pm

USD

5.40M

5.33M

CBI Industrial Order

Expectations
FOMC Member Tarullo
Speaks
Existing Home Sales

Close
(5:00pm)
67.3700
95.1700
1.1207
1.4631
109.87

Prev
Close
66.9850
95.1900
1.1221
1.4574
110.01

% Chg
+0.57%
-0.02%
-0.12%
+0.39%
-0.12%

Global Commodities

Event Calendar (20th May 2016)

Time

%
Change
+0.47%
-0.04%
+1.49%
-0.39%

Commodity
Gold
Silver
Crude
Copper

Close
1254.28
16.63
47.74
2.0480

Prev.Close
1257.58
16.80
48.04
2.0528

% Chg
-0.26%
-1.01%
-0.62%
-0.23%

Our Previous calls update

Intraday super star
Date
Currency Entry
19/05 EURINR Trifid special

Exit
-

P/L
-

Date Currency Entry

Exit
P/L
10/05 GBPINR 96.5700 97.0700 20000
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Overview
USDINR

EURINR

USDINR continued the positive momentum for the third

EURINR witnessed a range bound session as it did not show

consecutive session and gave breakout from the resistance of

any major moves.

100 day EMA which it was facing since several sessions.

Strong closing may lead it towards 67.6000-67.8000 in

On daily charts, if it is able to sustain above 75.8000 then

only up move can be seen in the counter while any closing

coming session while near support is seen near 67.3000.

below 75.5000 can result in its decline.

R1
67.7000

R1

R2

S1

S2

75.8000

76.0000

75.5000

75.3000

R2
67.9000

S1
67.3000

S2
67.1000

GBPINR

JPYINR

GBPINR strongly traded during the intraday session and

JPYINR opened on lower note but intraday gains made it to

continued the bulls so seen in the previous session.

close in green.

On daily charts, it finally gave breakout of the channel

On daily charts, strong support is seen around the trend line

pattern. Now, next major resistance is seen around 99.0000

i.e. around 60.9000 while 61.7000 is seen as immediate

while 97.8000 will now act as good support.

resistance from current levels.

R1
98.9000

R2
99.1000

S1
98.4000

S2
98.2000

R1
61.6000

R2
61.8000

S1
61.2000

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S2
61.0000

Intraday Super Star

(Premium Section)

Currency gave breakout from the technical pattern so observed on daily chart and now it may further lead towards the higher
resistance levels.
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Trifid Special
(Premium Section)

Currency is taking constant support at lower levels and intends to move northwards from such bottom levels. If it is able to
sustain above the trend line then it may show a short bull rally in coming sessions.
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