ENGEO-04075; No of Pages 12

Engineering Geology xxx (2015) xxxxxx

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Engineering Geology
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enggeo

Rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of debris ows in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan
Province, China
Jianqi Zhuang a,b,, Peng Cui c, Gonghui Wang d, Xiaoqing Chen c, Javed Iqbal e, Xiaojun Guo c
a

School of Geological Engineering and Surveying of Chang'an University, Key Laboratory of Western China Mineral Resources and Geological Engineering, Xi'an 710054, China
Institute of Geo-hazards Mitigation of Chang'an University, Xi'an 710054, China
Institute of Mountain hazards and Environment, CAS, Chengdu 610064, China
d
Research Centre on Landslides, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan
e
Department of Earth Sciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Abbottabad, Pakistan
b
c

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history:
Received 24 September 2014
Received in revised form 10 June 2015
Accepted 14 June 2015
Available online xxxx
Keywords:
Debris ow
Prediction
Rainfall thresholds
Jiangjia Gully

a b s t r a c t
The Jiangjia Gully (JJG), Yunnan Province, China, is one of several debris ow gullies that characterize the topography of mountainous areas in China. Rainfall-triggered debris ows are frequent in the JJG. In order to model and
predict these debris ow occurrences, we analyzed precipitation parameters (including intensityduration
thresholds and rainfall eventduration thresholds) that triggered past debris ow events in the JJG. Since the
JJG is unique, any model used for predicting debris ows in this gully must be developed using data from only
this gully. Furthermore, the effects of normalized precipitation and antecedent precipitation on debris ows in
the JJG were considered. Debris ow data and precipitation data were compiled from 47 debris ow events in
1993, 1994, 19982001, 2004 and 2006 in JJG. All of these debris ows were triggered following a precipitation
event with a duration of 6 h or less, with most of the precipitation events exhibiting a duration of 3 to 6 h. Only
three rainfall events with a duration of less than 1 h and average intensity between 1.0 and 42.0 mm/h produced
debris ows. The 90%, 70% and 50% probability curves for debris ow events were then constructed. Intensity
duration (ID) and rainfall eventduration (RED) thresholds were then used for debris ow modeling based
on preliminary tests and comparisons. Antecedent precipitation was found not to be a signicant factor in triggering debris ows in the JJG; however, intraday precipitation played a signicant role. Normalized precipitation
threshold curves from adjacent areas were not well-correlated with the patterns observed in the JJG. Determination of unique thresholds for each gully is necessary for developing an effective prediction system.
Crown Copyright 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Debris ows occur in various mountainous regions around the world,
with effects on local economies, as well as on life and infrastructure (e.g.
dams, roads) in nearby counties and villages. They are characterized by
mass densities ranging from 1.3 to 2.3 t/m3, speeds of 3 to 15 m/s, ow
discharges from tens to thousands of times the normal stream ow in
the region, and a wide range in particle diameters, from 106 m to
10 m (Cui et al., 2005; Zhuang et al., 2010). Rainfall, especially that from
short duration rainstorms, has been identied to be one of the most
important factors responsible for triggering debris ows (Wieczorek
and Guzzetti, 1999; Cui et al., 2005; Chen et al., 2006a,2006b; Guzzetti
et al., 2007, 2008; Zhuang et al., 2009; Shieh et al., 2009; Floris et al.,
2010; Cannon et al., 2011; Li et al., 2011; Hu et al., 2011; Guo et al.,
2013). Therefore, it is vital to forecast the occurrence of such ows and
develop effective warning systems based on the relationships between
precipitation and debris ow events (Crosta, 1998; Aleotti, 2004;
Corresponding author at: Institute of Geo-hazards Mitigation of Chang'an University,
Xi'an 710054, China.

Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008; Baum and Godt, 2010; Engel et al., 2011;
Jakob et al., 2012). Many researchers have attempted to correlate
rainfall/precipitation with debris ows (Wieczorek and Guzzetti, 1999;
Guzzetti et al., 2008). Accordingly, many critical thresholds and models
for debris ow initiation have been suggested using different precipitation parameters, such as precipitation durationprecipitation intensity
(ID model) (Cannon et al., 2008, 2011), antecedent rainfallcumulative
rainfall (ARR model) (Wieczorek and Guzzetti, 1999), antecedent
effective rainfallcumulative rainfall (AERR model) (Baum and Godt,
2010), maximum hourly rainfall intensitycumulative rainfall (ImaxR
model) (Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008), normalized rainfallcumulative rainfall (InormR model) (Guzzetti et al., 2008), and daily rainfallmaximum
hourly rainfall intensity (ImaxRd model) (Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008).
The effective critical threshold for a precipitation-induced landslide
must take into account the local topography, geology, debris characteristics (distribution, volume and soil strength) and hydrogeological parameters (Cannon, 1988; Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008; Cannon et al., 2008; Baum
and Godt, 2010; Cannon et al., 2011). Among the critical threshold models
that have been proposed by researchers around the world, the corresponding rainfall durations/intensities differ by up to three orders of

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.06.006
0013-7952/Crown Copyright 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article as: Zhuang, J., et al., Rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of debris ows in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China, Eng.
Geol. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.06.006

J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology xxx (2015) xxxxxx

magnitude between certain models (Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008). Even

within the same geographical zone, there can exist differences in rainfall
duration and/or intensity of up to one order of magnitude; this variation
arises from rainfall sampling resolution, and physiographical, geological
or geomorphological differences. In other words, a limitation of regional
or even local precipitation thresholds is the fact that thresholds dened
for a particular area cannot be easily implemented for assessing surrounding areas, including some areas that possess similar environmental conditions (Crosta and Frattini, 2008; Crosta, 1998).
The most common precipitation parameters used in determining
critical thresholds for debris ows are antecedent rainfall, antecedent
effective rainfall, precipitation duration, precipitation intensity, cumulative rainfall, maximum hourly rainfall intensity, normalized rainfall, and
daily rainfall (Guzzetti et al., 2008). Rainfall thresholds can be grouped
into two broad categories; (i) empirical threshold, which uses historical
debris ow and precipitation data (Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008; Baum
and Godt, 2010; Zhuang et al., 2014); (ii) physical threshold, which
employs a hydro-mechanical model of debris ow occurrences
(Takahashi, 1991; Cui, 1992; Iverson, 1997). Several decades of research
on debris ow initiation processes suggests that the former method is
more extensively used worldwide (Guzzetti et al., 2007; Baum and
Godt, 2010). Empirical rainfall thresholds are dened by measuring
rainfall events that have resulted in debris ows; the most commonly
used units of measurement for the parameters of these rainfall events
include: (i) Intraday rainfall and antecedent effective rainfall (Tan and
Duan, 1995; Wei et al., 2005; Cui et al., 2008; Zhuang et al., 2014), (ii)
rainfall intensityduration thresholds (Godt et al., 2006; Guzzetti
et al., 2007; Cannon et al., 2008), (iii) cumulative rainfall eventduration
thresholds (Kanji et al., 2003; Aleotti, 2004; Giannecchini, 2005), (iv)
cumulative rainfall eventaverage rainfall intensity thresholds
(Heyerdahl et al., 2003; Hong et al., 2005), and (v) other thresholds,
including normalized cumulative rainfall events and normalized rainfall
intensity (Cannon, 1988; Jibson, 1989; De Vita et al., 1998; Jakob and
Weatherly, 2003). Numerous studies have analyzed the empirical
relationship between rainfall and debris ow occurrences, proposing
various critical thresholds and equations for different regions. For example, studies were conducted near San Francisco, CA, USA (Baum and
Godt, 2010), wildre-prone areas in the western USA (Cannon et al.,
2008), the Alps in Europe (Guzzetti et al., 2007), Taiwan (Chen et al.,
2006a, 2006b; Shieh et al., 2009; Kung et al., 2012), Hong Kong (Chan
et al., 2003) and the XiaojiangAnning river basin in China (Tan and
Duan, 1995; Wei et al., 2005; Cui et al., 2008; Hu et al., 2010). However,
the agencies responsible for implementing safety protocols generally

lack the necessary resources for the provision of continuous support

or expansion of services to other areas due to variation in local geological conditions.
Rainfall-induced debris ows are relatively common in the Jiangjia
Gully (JJG), Yunnan Province, China. Located in mountainous southwestern China, the debris ows in this gully are fairly typical of those
that occur in other mountainous areas in China. Regular observations
and systematic data collection of debris ows in JJG have been conducted by the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment at the Chinese
Academy of Sciences since 1965. Typically, 10 to 20 min of highintensity rainfall can initiate a debris ow from shallow landslides in
this gully, with an average debris ow density of 2.0 t/m3 (Kang et al.,
2004; Cui et al., 2005). This is due to the presence of complex geological
structures, fragile rock formations, numerous shallow landslides, and
abundant rainfall in the gully. During every rainy season (MayOctober), about 1220 debris ows occur in the region (Fig. 1). Several
prediction models have been proposed with respect to the JJG based
on intraday rainfall (Wei et al., 2005; Cui et al., 2008) and antecedent
10-min rainfall (Wu et al., 1990; Guo et al., 2013) before debris ow
occurrences, but none of them have demonstrated acceptable accuracy.
Meanwhile it is still unclear what the most inuential rainfall parameters (antecedent rainfall, intraday rainfall and rainfall intensity) are, in
terms of the triggering of debris ows. In this study, we developed
prediction models using different rainfall parameters and methods,
and then validated the models using actual debris ow events. Based
on this, the inuences of different rainfall parameters on debris ow
occurrence are discussed.
In order to forecast debris ows in the JJG, the characteristics of past
precipitation events that triggered debris ows in the gully were
analyzed to construct a comprehensive precipitation threshold model,
including both ID and RED models. Data was obtained from
DCDFORS (Dongchuan Debris Flow Observation and Research Station,
located in Yunnan Province, China; Fig. 2). Finally, the effects of different
precipitation parameters on debris ow occurrences are discussed.
2. Geological setting of the study area
The Jiangjia Gully is a tributary of the Xiaojiang River, which has 106
other tributaries that are also subject to debris ows. The watershed of
the Xiaojiang River is colloquially known in China as the World's
Natural Museum of Debris Flows (Cui et al., 2005). The drainage
basin intersects the Xiaojiang River at a distance of 31 km south of the
junction of the Xiaojiang River and the Jinsha River. The JJG has a

30

700
Number of debris flow
600
500

20
400

15
300
10

200
5

Sediment transport /104m3

Nember of debris flow occurrence

Sediment transport
25

100

0
1965

1970

1975

1980

1985
1990
Year

1995

2000

2005

Fig. 1. The number of debris ow events and annual sediment transport by debris ows during an average rainy season in the JJG, Yunnan, China.

Please cite this article as: Zhuang, J., et al., Rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of debris ows in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China, Eng.
Geol. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.06.006

J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology xxx (2015) xxxxxx

Yinjiaao Precipitation
Observing Station

Soil infiltration
test site

Observation Section

Mayiping Precipitation
Observing Station

Chenjialiangzi Precipitation
Observing Station

Soil water content

monitor site
High: 3177.2 m

Dongchuan Precipitation Observing

Station and Dongchuan Debris Flow
Observation and Research Station
Wanfangzi Precipitation
Observing Station

Low: 1295.1 m

Beijing

First terrace

Yellow River

Second-Yangtze
terrace River
ThirdKunming
terrace

Fig. 2. Map of the study area and the observation site (a: location of the JJG in China; b: observation area of the JJG; c: debris ow event locations; d: watershed of the JJG and observation
stations).

trunk channel length of 13.9 km and covers a total area of 48.6 km2. It is
located within the Xiaojiang fault zone in northeastern Yunnan Province
in Southwest China (N23132317, E103610313).
The study area is characterized by intense tectonism; about 80% of
the exposed rocks are highly fractured and slightly metamorphosed.
The predominant sandstone and slate can be easily differentiated by

their color (light and dark, respectively). Both rock types are weak,
and easily weathered and fragmented. Colluvium is widely distributed
on slopes, which provide materials for shallow landslides. The total
cumulative volume of clastic detritus, which acts as potential source
material for future debris ows, is estimated to be 1.2 109 m3 (Wu
et al., 1990). The main stream extends from the drainage basin at an

Precipitation

Precipitation
Antecedent
precipitation

Rainfall
event

The interval time of

no precipitation is
more than 3 hours

Rainfall
duration

The time of the debris

flow occurrence

Time
Fig. 3. List of the main precipitation items that contribute to debris ow formation.

Please cite this article as: Zhuang, J., et al., Rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of debris ows in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China, Eng.
Geol. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.06.006

J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology xxx (2015) xxxxxx

altitude of 3269 m, westwards to the junction with the Xiaojiang River

at an altitude of 1042 m. Slopes steeper than 25 comprise 55% of the
basin area, with an altitude difference of 500 m (Wu et al., 1990) (Fig. 2).
During every rainy season (MayOctober), when 85% of the annual
precipitation falls, about 1220 debris ows occur in the region. The
record for the highest annual number of events was 28 in 1965. In
1961, DCDFORS was established with the cooperation of the Institute
of Mountain Hazards and Environment at the Chinese Academy of
Sciences. Since 1987, regular observations and systematic data collection on debris ows have been conducted.

The annual average sediment yield in the JJG is 2.0 million m3, while
a maximum of 6.6 million m3 was reported in 1991 as a result of
unusually numerous and heavy debris ows in that year (Cui et al.,
2005). The average annual rainfall is 800 mm, with a maximum of
1130 mm and a minimum of 514 mm (during the period 19532010).
Thunderstorms are frequent during the rainy season. Typically, a
high-intensity rainfall event lasting 10 to 20 min can trigger a debris
ow (Kang et al., 2004). The discharge rate of each debris ow ranges
from hundreds to thousands of cubic meters per second (Kang et al.,
2004).

Table 1
Debris ow and corresponding precipitation data (debris ow peak discharge (Pd), debris ow discharge (Di), sediment transport (St), debris ow density (De)).
Time

I/mm/min

D/min

RE/mm

AER/mm

St/m3

Pd/m3/s

Di/m3/s

De/g/cm3

1993-8-26
1993-8-29
1994-6-26
1994-6-15
1994-7-2
1994-7-19
1994-8-21
1998-8-2
1998-8-4
1998-8-7
1998-8-12
1999-7-16
1999-7-24
1999-7-24
1999-8-10
1999-8-16
1999-8-18
1999-8-25
2000-6-20
2000-7-4
2000-7-6
2000-7-15
2000-8-8
2000-8-9
2000-8-29
2001-6-26
2001-6-27
2001-6-29
2001-7-1
2001-7-4
2001-7-8
2001-7-24
2001-7-30
2001-8-5
2001-8-13
2001-8-19
2001-8-22
2004-6-26
2004-7-9
2004-8-25
2004-7-31
2004-7-19
2004-7-21
2006-7-6
2006-8-15
2006-7-5
2006-8-20
2007-7-10
2007-7-30
2007-9-17
2007-7-25
2007-9-14
2007-7-25
2007-7-24
2008 7 1
2008-7-5
2008-7-11
2008-7-22
2008-7-31
2008-8-3
2008-8-8

0.056
0.077
0.384
0.102
0.212
0.233
0.096
0.121
0.035
0.713
0.300
0.197
0.163
0.530
0.072
0.037
0.034
0.051
0.202
0.204
0.006
0.048
0.142
0.144
0.103
0.197
0.219
0.112
0.211
0.023
0.063
0.038
0.085
0.353
0.088
0.207
0.100
0.083
0.017
0.235
0.084
0.152
0.063
0.094
0.170
0.175
0.040
0.110
0.063
0.027
0.110
0.040
0.052
0.038
0.048
0.029
0.230
0.068
0.001
0.066
0.011

520
400
120
520
160
60
140
220
720
60
1200
240
290
70
850
880
1190
470
230
260
1010
1570
310
140
360
230
240
270
40
1300
410
300
420
80
190
180
210
210
560
100
40
120
180
211
253
138
314
100
230
877
153
486
861
474
690
1410
30
325
25,945
293
3392

29.120
30.800
46.080
53.040
33.920
13.980
13.440
26.620
25.200
42.780
36.200
47.280
47.270
37.100
61.200
32.560
40.460
23.970
46.460
53.040
6.060
75.360
44.020
20.160
36.900
45.310
52.560
30.240
8.440
29.900
25.830
11.500
35.700
28.240
16.720
37.260
21.000
17.430
9.576
23.500
3.360
18.240
11.340
19.834
43.010
24.150
12.560
11.000
14.490
23.591
16.830
19.440
44.772
18.012
32.900
40.600
6.900
22.000
28.200
19.200
37.800

12.100
18.600
29.000
12.500

8.200
6.100
18.400
20.100

15.300
34.000
28.900
19.300
23.600
25.750
49.550
36.200
31.380
11.230
33.190
19.600
23.500
31.600
22.700
13.430
30.340
59.250
53.310
42.510
39.760
5.270
7.080
15.300
29.830
14.100
28.020
18.096
92.595
3.588
0.772
12.637
4.769
0.702
0.936
0.000
0.000
3.666
0.000
0.702
20.046
0.000
20.046
4.914
0.000
5.070
0.468
1.950
2.262
2.808
15.054

520,456
157,018
114,400
489,828
126,612
215,141
99,157
78,468
40,876
16,323
131,293
102,481
54,980
6996
455
96,088
24,363
79,494
331,555

16,386
131,456
534,143
667,493
727,688
27,003
20,068
492,043
34,322
87,332
74,658

1159
954
757
924
1060
1350
696
442
555
35
73
1138
525
35
30
1037

498
775

65
747
1311
781
1279
552
34
840
280
462
684

911,870
253,806
182,284
747,374
185,684
333,592
160,522
133,253
65,853
40,888
307,735
157,922
95,062
14,625
77,302
154,820
41,867
125,110
627,585

31,672
184,714
715,133
919,177
1,015,276
17,495
10,095
341,061
24,619
57,446
47,677

2.20
2.10
1.88
2.15
2.21
2.12
2.13
2.07
2.11
1.73
1.63
2.16
1.97
1.79
1.95
2.02
1.72
2.05
1.87

1.85
2.17
2.23
2.20
2.18
2.07
1.83
2.14
2.18
2.09
2.05

, the data were not collected.

Please cite this article as: Zhuang, J., et al., Rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of debris ows in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China, Eng.
Geol. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.06.006

J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology xxx (2015) xxxxxx

100.0
Curve 90%
Curve 70%
Curve 50%

Intensity (mm/h)

10.0

1.0

B
0.1
0.1

1.0

10.0

100.0

Duration (h)
Fig. 4. The relationship between rainfall duration/intensity and the 90%, 70% and 50% probability thresholds for the initiation of a debris ow event.

3. Data collection and manipulation

3.1. Precipitation data
Three rain-gauges were installed in JJG in 1993, one each in the
Menqian Gully and Duozhao Gully, and one at DCDFORS. These raingauges provided high-resolution rainfall data (with a resolution of
0.1 mm in precipitation and 1 min in observation intervals). In 2002,
an additional six rain-gauges were installed; three at the same sites as
those previously indicated, and three in the Menqian Gully. Previous
studies (Wu et al., 1990; Cui et al., 2005; Hu et al., 2010; Guo et al.,
2013) have indicated that precipitation in the Menqian Gully is the
main trigger for debris ows in the JJG, due to the presence of unconsolidated, loose materials and debris ow initiation form shallow
landslides. Accordingly, data from the Mayiping Rain Gauge was used
as the main data source.
For a given setting, debris ows are typically triggered by a dened
set of rainfall conditions. These conditions may involve high rainfall
intensities over short durations and/or lower rainfall intensities
maintained over longer durations. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze
the relationships between debris ow and various rainfall parameters,

such as intensity (I), duration (D), antecedent effect rainfall (AER),

and normalized intensity (I-normal).
The denition of a rainfall event has been discussed in other studies.
For example, Jan and Lee (2004) dened it to be no more than 4 mm of
rainfall within 1 h before the rainfall event, while Zhou and Tang (2013)
dened it as no more than 1 mm within 6 h before the rainfall event. As
discussed earlier, debris ows in the JJG are frequent and can be triggered by low-intensity rainfall events. Accordingly, we dened a rainfall
event here as the precipitation measured from the beginning of a storm
to the occurrence of a debris ow. The beginning of a storm is dened as
the occurrence of no more than 0.1 mm rainfall during 3 h (or more)
prior to a storm. The rainfall event duration is dened as the time that
elapses from the beginning of a storm to the occurrence of a debris
ow. The intensity is dened as the total rainfall in the event divided
by the duration (Fig. 3).
Antecedent effective rainfall is dened here as the actual effect of
rainfall on soil water content prior to a rainfall event that triggered a
debris ow. However, the role of antecedent rainfall in triggering debris
ows diminishes to zero as the interval between the two increases, due
to soil water redistribution (inltration) and evaporation processes
(Bruce and Clark, 1969; Ni et al., 2010; Li et al., 2011). Thus, the amount

100

Rainfall event (mm)

Curve 50%
Curve 90%

Curve 70%
10

1
0

10

100

Duration (h)
Fig. 5. The relationship between rainfall duration/event and the 90%, 70% and 50% probability thresholds, calculated using Eq. (3).

Please cite this article as: Zhuang, J., et al., Rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of debris ows in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China, Eng.
Geol. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.06.006

J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology xxx (2015) xxxxxx

1.00

Intensity (mm/h)

More frequently

0.10

Very low frequently

0.01
1

10

100

Rainfall event (mm)

Fig. 6. The relationship between rainfall intensity and rainfall events.

of water inltrating into hillslopes during a rainfall preceding a

landslide event can be referred to as the antecedent effective rainfall
for the debris ow event (Glade et al., 2000). Therefore, it is appropriate
to calculate this parameter, as it considers the actual contribution of
antecedent rainfall to debris ow occurrences. The antecedent effective
rainfall is commonly considered a function of the regressive rainfall
index and time (Bruce and Clark, 1969):
Re

n
X

Ri K i

It should be noted that a normalized rainfall event is dened as the

rainfall divided by mean annual precipitation; normalized duration is
dened as the rainfall event duration divided by mean annual precipitation; normalized mean intensity is dened as the mean intensity
divided by mean annual precipitation (Cannon, 1988; Jibson, 1989; De
Vita et al., 1998; Jakob and Weatherly, 2003). Finally, rainfall intensity
is dened as the rainfall duration (h) divided by the rainfall amount
(mm) (Cannon, 1988).

i1

3.2. Debris ow data

where Re represents the antecedent effective rainfall (mm) that fell

during i days before the debris ow (or similar geological event)
occurred; K is the degressive index representing the outow of the
regolith; Ri is the intraday rainfall before the debris ow occurred.
Eq. (1) calculates the antecedent effective rainfall via analysis of statistics,
and indicates the effective precipitation before a rainfall-triggered debris
ow. We used the soil moisture content attenuation rate to determine
the number of days preceding the debris ow occurrence. The data
used in this study conrm that the inuence of rainfall diminishes and
eventually disappears with an increasing time interval (due to evaporation), and has no appreciable inuence on debris ow formation if 15
or more days have elapsed. Hence, the upper limit of n in Eq. (1) is 15.
The degressive index (K) has been previously studied by many researchers; we used a value of 0.78 (Cui et al., 2008; Zhuang et al., 2009).

Since 1993, more than 70 debris ows have been recorded in the JJG.
However, the debris ows occurring in 2002, 2003, and 2005 were excluded from the dataset due to issues with rain-gauge data collection
during these years. Hence, only 60 debris ow events and corresponding precipitation data were included for analysis. The data include the
date of each debris ow, debris ow peak discharge (Pd), debris ow
discharge (Di), sediment transport (St), debris ow density (De),
precipitation (with a resolution of 0.1 mm), rainfall duration (with a
resolution of 1 min), intensity, and effective antecedent rainfall before
each debris ow event (Table 1). We analyzed 47 debris ow occurrences in 1993, 1994, 19982001, 2004 and 2006 to determine our
thresholds. We then used 13 debris ows in the period 20072008 to
validate these thresholds.

Rainfall event (mm)

100

More frequently

10

Very low frequently

1
1

10

100

Antecedent effective rainfall (mm)

Fig. 7. The relationship between rainfall events and effective antecedent precipitation.

Please cite this article as: Zhuang, J., et al., Rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of debris ows in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China, Eng.
Geol. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.06.006

J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology xxx (2015) xxxxxx

1.00

Intensity (mm/h)

More frequently

0.10

Very low frequently

0.01
1

10

100

Antecedent effective rainfall (mm)

Fig. 8. The relationship between rainfall intensity and effective antecedent precipitation.

4. Results
4.1. ID threshold
Thresholds empirically derived from rainfall intensityduration
have been widely used to identify rainfall conditions that result in the
occurrence of debris ows (Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008; Baum and
Godt, 2010; Lee et al., 2013). Inspection of the ID thresholds reveals
the general form:
I c D

where I is (mean) rainfall intensity, D is rainfall duration, and c, and

are other parameters. For the majority of ID thresholds, c = 0 and
Eq. (2) takes the form of a simple power law.To model the empirical
relationship between I and D, the two variables were plotted on a single
graph (Fig. 4), where D (x axis) is the rainfall duration and I (y-axis)
is the rainfall intensity. About 70% of the storms that generated debris
ows in the JJG had a duration equal to or less than 6 h, with most
durations being 3 to 6 h.
7

100.0

Using Eq. (2), we calculated the best-t line using the least squares
and medium-scale methods, and obtained the equation I = 15.87
D0.5952. This equation uses median regression to empirically obtain
the corresponding median thresholds (curve 50% of the graph for
including 50% of the debris ow event points). It only demonstrates
the relationship between rainfall intensity and duration, and cannot
be used directly to forecast debris ows using only one probability
line (yes or no with respect to debris ow occurrences). Accordingly,
we calculated the 90% and 70% (curve 90%/70% of the graph for
including 90%/70% of the debris ow event points) probability curves
in the graph, corresponding to 90% and 70% of the debris ow event
points, respectively (i.e. the lowest threshold line and the lowest median threshold line, respectively) (Fig. 4). The equations to calculate the
70% and 90% thresholds are I = 11.92 D0.5952 and I = 7.27 D0.5952,
respectively. The quadrant can be divided by the three thresholds into
four zones (A, B, C and D). Zone A is located below the lowest threshold
(90% curve) and represents a very low probability of debris ow. Zone B
is located between the lowest threshold line (90% curve) and lowest
median threshold line (70% curve), representing a relatively low
probability of a debris ow occurrence for points located between the
I and D curves. This would necessitate the release of a watch alert.

Intensity (mm/h)

10.0

10

50% Curve
70% Curve
1.0

This study

Test data

90% Curve

70% Curve

10

50% Curve

90% Curve

0.1
0.1

1.0

Duration (h)

10.0

100.0

Fig. 9. Comparison and validation of ID thresholds (No. 1: Caine (1980); No. 2: Wieczorek (1987); Nos. 3, 4, 5: Jibson (1989); No. 6: Guadagno (1991); No. 7: Paronuzzi et al. (1998); No. 8:
Crosta and Frattini (2001); No. 9: Shieh et al. (2009); No. 10: Guo et al. (2013)).

Please cite this article as: Zhuang, J., et al., Rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of debris ows in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China, Eng.
Geol. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.06.006

J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology xxx (2015) xxxxxx

Rainfall event (mm)

1000

100

10

This data

Test data

50% Curve

90% Curve

70% Curve

0.1

1.0

10.0

100.0

Duration (h)
Fig. 10. Comparison and validation of RED thresholds (No. 1: Innes (1983); Nos. 23: Wilson et al. (1992); No. 4: Kanji et al. (2003)).

Zone C is located between the lowest median threshold line (70% curve)
and the median threshold line (50% curve), representing a fairly high
probability of debris ow occurrence. This would require the issuance
of a warning alert. Zone D is located above the upper median threshold
line, indicating an extremely high probability of debris ow occurrence
(Fig. 4).

RE b 16 mm), using the 20% debris ow occurrence (P = 20%) curve.

This line marked the boundary between the frequent and infrequent
categories.
RE 17:45 D0:3042
RE 13:98 D0:3042
RE 8:12 D0:3042

for curve 50%

for curve 70%
for curve 90%

4.2. RED and REI thresholds

Besides the ID threshold, thresholds based on events described by
total rainfall and rainfall duration (Campbell, 1975), named RED
thresholds (Cannon and Ellen, 1985), have also been utilized to predict
rainfall-induced debris ow. Caine (1980) also suggested certain the use
of global REI thresholds for debris ows using accumulate rainfall
event and rainfall intensity. The rainfall event required to trigger
landslides in the JJG varied from a minimum of 3.5 mm to a maximum
of 75 mm. As indicated in Fig. 5, the RED thresholds for different debris
ow occurrence probabilities is dened by the relationship between RE
and D. However, it is difcult to quantify the relationship between RE
and I (Fig. 6). The rainfall frequencies for different debris ow occurrence probabilities were classied in our study into frequent (I N 0.08
mm/min and RE N 16 mm) and infrequent (I b 0.08 mm/min and

4.3. IAER and REAER thresholds

Soil moisture is a factor that predisposes slopes to failure and then
debris ow occurrences (Crozier, 1986; Wieczorek, 1996). In order to
understand the effect of soil moisture on debris ow occurrences, we
devised a simple method based on antecedent effective precipitation
to establish a threshold.
Relationships involving IAER (Fig. 7) and REAER (Fig. 8) were
analyzed. The AER needed to trigger landslides in JJG varied from a
minimum of 12 mm to a maximum of 35 mm. Exploring more complex
relationships between the AER and the RE (I) threshold curves are
beyond the scope of this paper. The demarcation between frequent
and infrequent occurrences of debris ows can be dened (20%

0.10
2
3

I-Normal (mm)

8
5

0.01
This paper

Test data

Curve 50%

4
7

0.00
0.1

1.0

Duration (h)

10.0

100.0

Fig. 11. The I-normal-D thresholds in the JJG and their comparison with other threshold models (Nos. 16: Jibson (1989); No. 7: Paronuzzi et al. (1998); No. 8: Wieczorek et al. (2000)).

Please cite this article as: Zhuang, J., et al., Rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of debris ows in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China, Eng.
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J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology xxx (2015) xxxxxx

therefore, the focus of these models is on minimizing these anomalies

(Guzzetti et al., 2008; Zhuang et al., 2014). In the future, this model
can be revised and calibrated by including data on subsequent debris
ows and precipitation.
Fig. 9 indicates a comparison of the debris ow threshold curves
proposed in different studies. In addition to signicant variation in
their parameters, all except curves 4, 17 and 20 are higher than the
one we developed. Thresholds 4 and 17 were constructed based on
areas affected by wildres, while threshold 20 was developed based
on the ChiChi earthquake (Shieh et al., 2009). As with the JJG, both
areas are prone to debris ows at low precipitation thresholds, because
of the presence of abundant loose debris.
Fig. 9 indicates the various thresholds proposed for the JJG in
different studies. The ID 90% threshold proposed by Guo et al. (2013)
(No. 21) is lower than the 90% threshold developed by us. The reason
for this discrepancy is that the denitions of rainfall events that
triggered debris ows are different. Guo et al. (2013) dened a sudden
change in rainfall as critical rainfall, and dened the rainfall duration
threshold as 1 h and 10 min. This was used as the basis for modeling
in their study.
Fig. 10 indicates the four RED threshold curves that have been
proposed in different studies. Threshold curve 1, which is the lowest of
the four, is comparable to ours. Curve 2, developed in a study on volcanic
debris ows in Hawaii, is slightly higher than the 90% threshold curve
presented in our paper. The remaining two threshold curves are signicantly higher than the ones presented here. Reviewing Figs. 910, it can
be concluded that the thresholds for debris ow occurrences vary significantly across local, regional and global scales, due to differences in geological, morphological and climatic conditions. Therefore, it is necessary
to develop a unique model for each gully subject to major debris ows.

Debris flow no-occurs

High

Debris flow occurs

Precipitation

Loose debris

Loose debris

Threshold line

Precipitation

High

Low

Low

Time
High

Debris flow occurs

Loess debris

Threshold line

Precipitation

High

Debris flow no-occurs

Precipitation

Low

Low

Time
Fig. 12. Debris ow initiation characteristics (top: debris-limited; bottom: rainfall-limited). Revised from Bovis and Jakob (1999).

probability), for AERRE, as AER = 13.5 mm and RE = 19.5 mm, while

for AERI, it can be dened as AER = 12 mm and RE = 0.05 mm/min.

5. Discussion
5.2. Normalization threshold
5.1. Model testing and comparison
In order to verify the reliability and accuracy of the determined
thresholds and make necessary renements, we used data from 13
debris ow events in the period 20072008 for model validation.
Fig. 9 indicates the model validation results using the ID thresholds.
Eleven debris ows were located in the B region and two were located
in the C region. Fig. 10 indicates the model validation results using the
RED thresholds. Ten and two debris ows were located in theB and C
regions, respectively, while one was located in the D region. The results
indicate that the RED threshold line is slightly more accurate than the
ID threshold line in the JJG. The occurrence of false negatives and false
positives is not unprecedented in even highly accurate models;

As discussed, a limitation of local ID thresholds is the fact that those

dened for a particular area with its unique climatic and geological
conditions cannot be easily implemented for surrounding areas
(Figs. 9 and 10). This is mainly due to differences in the rainfall parameters that trigger debris ows. To compare rainfall thresholds prepared
for different regions, several authors used the concept of normal or normalized rainfall intensity, which is the rainfall intensity divided by the
mean annual precipitation (Cannon, 1988; Jibson, 1989; De Vita et al.,
1998; Jakob and Weatherly, 2003). In view of ongoing climate change,
we used a similar factor, albeit rened further by using annual precipitation within the same year as the divisor. The generated relationship
is referred to as I-normal-D.

40

30

rainfall
20cm
40cm

10cm
30cm

25

20

20

15

10

Rainfall (mm)

Soil moisture (%)

30

10
5

0
6-23

7-1

7-6

7-10

7-19

7-25

8-5

8-9

8-13

8-21

8-25

Date
Fig. 13. Soil moisture at different soil depths, plotted against precipitation in the JJG in 2006.

Please cite this article as: Zhuang, J., et al., Rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of debris ows in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China, Eng.
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10

J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology xxx (2015) xxxxxx

Infiltrate rate (cm/min)

12

20cm
wide-range and loose un-consolidate soil

0
0

10

15

20

25

30

Time (min)
Fig. 14. Inltration rate within a landslide body in the JJG.

that characterize the two types of ows are different. This is yet another
reason why the rainfall thresholds that trigger debris ows are unique
to one or a few regions.
5.3. The effect of AER on debris ows in the JJG
Current literature on rainfall thresholds for predicting landslide
hazards suggests that there are two viewpoints regarding the selection
of appropriate precipitation parameters; one focuses on the rainfall intensity (Guzzetti et al., 2007) and the other on the antecedent effective
rainfall (Cui et al., 2008). The inuence of rainfall on landslides differs
substantially depending upon the landslide type and materials involved
(Guzzetti et al., 2008). Shallow failures are usually triggered by short,
intense storms, while deep-seated failures are triggered by long-term
antecedent effective rainfall (Li et al., 2008; Piacentini et al., 2012;
Chen et al., 2013). Debris ows can be initiated by either shallow or
deep-seated landslides. A study on tropical soils of Hong Kong revealed
that antecedent rainfall of any duration is not signicant in the triggering process (Brand et al., 1984). On the other hand, a similar study in
Wellington, New Zealand, revealed that rainfall during antecedent
periods of up to 10 days inuenced the soil moisture balance with
respect to triggering deep landslides (Crozier, 1999). This effect of antecedent moisture may be related to regional climates, soil permeability
properties and the debris ow initiation type (shallow landslide, deep
landslide or run-off).

0.7

35

0.6

30

0.5

25

0.4

Base flow in JJG

20

0.3

15

0.2

10

0.1

0
8/1/09

8/5/09

8/9/09

Rainfall/ mm

Runoff /m3/s

In order to verify whether the I-normal-D threshold was applicable

to other regions, we analyzed their relationship in the JJG and compared
it with previously presented models (Fig. 11). We observed the following: (i) The I-normal-D curves vary signicantly across studies; (ii) the
I-normal-D curves obtained in our study are lower than those presented
by other researchers; (iii) use of normalized thresholds cannot avoid
variability arising from geographical, morphological, geological, and
certain climatic factors, or variability tied to the amount of source
material distributed near and in the ow channels. Hence, the challenge
in extrapolating these thresholds to other locations remains.
The debris ows that typically occur in the JJG can be classied as
rainfall-limited ows. Debris ows initiated by landslides due to heavy
precipitation are different from those caused by bed failure due to
runoff, with different underlying mechanisms (Guzzetti et al., 2007,
2008; Gregoretti and Fontana, 2008; Zhuang et al., 2013). Debris ows
can be categorized as either rainfall-limited (mainly initiated by landslides) or debris-limited (mainly caused by bed failure due to runoff),
with different trigger factors. This is the case even when geographical,
morphological and climatic conditions are similar (Bovis and Jakob,
1999). The former is characterized by a practically unlimited sediment
supply and is triggered by a critical value of precipitation. However, in
the case of debris-limited ows, a substantial interval must elapse for
channel recharge and sediment supply to build up before the next
debris ow can occur. The initiation of such ows is affected by both
precipitation and debris supply (Fig. 12). In addition, the loose materials

8/13/09 8/17/09 8/21/09 8/25/09 8/29/09

Date

Fig. 15. Runoff in the JJG after a rainfall event in Aug. 2009.

Please cite this article as: Zhuang, J., et al., Rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of debris ows in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China, Eng.
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J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology xxx (2015) xxxxxx

In the JJG, antecedent precipitation has been considered to be a

signicant factor in the triggering of debris ows, according to other
researchers; the length of the effective antecedent precipitation period
is 15 to 20 days (Cui et al., 2005, 2008; Wu et al., 1990; Guo et al., 2013).
In this paper, we analyzed the I-AER (Fig. 7) and RE-AER (Fig. 8)
relationships, and found that the two were not well-correlated. Fig. 13
indicates the soil moisture at different soil depths, plotted against
precipitation in JJG in 2006. Soil moisture was measured by TDR
(Time-Domain Reectometry) in a grassland near DCDFORS (see the
Fig. 2). Soil moisture was highly sensitive and responsive to precipitation, with minimal lag effects. In addition, the water contents at
different depths varied in their responses to precipitation. Although
the water contents at depths of 10 cm and 20 cm were responsive,
those at depths of 30 and 40 cm were not. In addition, soil moisture
was strongly correlated to rainfall on the same day, with decreasing
correlation coefcients as the interval after the preceding rainfall
event lengthened. When the interval reached four days, soil moisture
tended to decrease to its original equilibrium value (Fig. 13). In other
words, elevated soil water content was present for only 4 days after a
rainfall event. Therefore, antecedent precipitation did not signicantly
affect the soil water content.
Fig. 14 shows the water inltration rate in a landslide body, measured
using a DRI (Double Ring Inltrometer), within the Menqian Gully
(Fig. 2). The inltration rate was observed to be high initially (up to 15
cm/min), and then decreased sharply to achieve a steady inltration
rate of 0.4 cm/min. This value is higher than that observed in other
areas, probably because the JJG comprises loose, unconsolidated
materials and witnesses high evapotranspiration rates (3752.7 mm/y)
(Cui et al., 2005). Runoff in JJG in Aug. 2009 was measured by DCDFORS
using CSM (Cross-Section Measurement) (Fig. 15). That indicates that
the runoff response to precipitation was evident and rapid, increasing
sharply with precipitation and decreasing sharply after precipitation
terminated. Soil water content tended to decrease to the initial value
within days of the precipitation event.
The high inltration rate indicates that the soil has little water-holding
capacity. This is due to insufcient vegetation cover and the prevalence of
coarse materials in the slope of the gully Inltrating water converges as
underground water ow and ow away via macropores. Meanwhile,
debris ows in the JJG are primarily initiated by shallow landslides (Wu
et al., 1990; Cui et al., 2005; Chen et al., 2006a, 2006b; Hu et al., 2011).
These landslides can be triggered when an extended period of heavy
precipitation occurs, concurrent with a maximum depth of water
inltration of 2 m in the slope body. Under such conditions, a shallow
landslide may progress into a debris ow. Therefore, the soil water
and run-off in the JJG is usually not independent of antecedent
precipitation.
6. Conclusion
In this study, we analyzed the rainfall conditions that triggered
debris ows in JJG in the past, in order to develop rainfall intensity
duration thresholds and rainfall eventduration thresholds determining
the occurrence of debris ows in the JJG. These two thresholds were validated using 20072008 debris ows and then compared with other
thresholds determined from around the world. Finally, the effects of
normalized precipitation and antecedent precipitation on debris ows
were discussed, with the following conclusions:
(1) The ID and RED thresholds for the 50%, 70% and 90% probabilities of debris ows were determined. Subsequently, four regions
corresponding to different warning levels were identied. These
thresholds are applicable in predicting future debris ows in the
JJG.
(2) The threshold curves proposed in other areas indicated in this
manuscript tend to be higher than the ones determined here,
and are therefore not applicable to the JJG.

11

(3) Although precipitation was normalized according to climatic

parameters, the normalized precipitation threshold curve cannot
be directly implemented to surrounding areas with similar
conditions, due to differences in topography.
(4) Debris ows in JJG are predominantly triggered by intraday
precipitation, while antecedent precipitation is not a signicant
factor.
Acknowledgments
We are thankful to Prof. Hong Yong and Hu Kaiheng at the Institute
of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS for their valuable suggestions and assistance with this study. The authors sincerely appreciate
the assistance with data collection provided by Dr. Lin Yongming, Dr.
Ge Yonggang and Dr. Zhu Xinghua from the Institute of Mountain
Hazards and Environment, CAS and Chen Wenbo from the CEE of the
PolyU of HongKong. We express special thanks to the staff of Dongchuan
Debris Flow Observation and Research Station of the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS, for their cooperation. This work
was nancially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation
of China (41202244) and the National Key Fundamental Research
Program of China (973) (2014CB744703).
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Please cite this article as: Zhuang, J., et al., Rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of debris ows in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China, Eng.
Geol. (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.06.006