Transportation Research Part D 37 (2015) 113

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Transportation Research Part D

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/trd

Greenhouse gas emissions from road transport in South Africa

and Lesotho between 2000 and 2009
Mphethe Tongwane a,c,, Stuart Piketh b,c, Luanne Stevens b,c, Teke Ramotubei d
a

Agricultural Research Council Institute for Soil, Climate and Water, Private Bag X79, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
North-West University, School of Geo and Spatial Science, Unit for Environmental Science and Management, Chemical Resource Beneciation, Private Bag
X6001, Potchefstroom 2531, South Africa
c
University of the Witwatersrand, School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, Private Bag X3, WITS 2050, South Africa
d
South African Weather Service, Regional Training Centre, Private Bag X097, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
b

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Keywords:
Provincial emissions
Modal intensity
Key sources

a b s t r a c t
Road transport is the major source of global greenhouse gas emissions from the transport
sector, contributing about three quarters towards the total transport emissions. This study
used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Tier 2 approach to calculate greenhouse gas emissions from road transport in South Africa and Lesotho between 2000 and
2009. Key transport emitting sources, trend analysis and modal intensities were determined for the two countries. For South Africa, provincial road transport emissions were
calculated from the number of vehicles by vehicle type and distance travelled.
Calculations were at a national level in Lesotho. Road transport carbon dioxide equivalent
emissions were estimated at 43.5 million tonnes in South Africa and 0.28 million tonnes in
Lesotho in 2009. Motorcars and trucks produced 70.6% of the total road transport emissions
in South Africa. Road transport emissions increased by approximately 2.6% per year
between 2000 and 2009 in South Africa, while they increased by approximately 2.5% per
annum in Lesotho over the same period. Gauteng province had the highest emissions, contributing approximately a third of total road transport emissions in South Africa; while the
Northern Cape contributed only 2%. Minibus taxis were the most efcient transport mode
on the basis of load carried. The Northern Cape had the highest emissions per passengerkilometres and tonne-kilometre while the North West had the lowest. Trend assessment
showed that emissions from trucks increased rapidly while emissions from other modes
of transport decreased over the study period.
2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introduction
Dependence of the economy on transport makes it a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Zegras,
2007). Global GHG emissions grew on average by 2.2% per year between 2000 and 2010 compared to the previous 3 decades
that experienced a 1.3% per year growth rate (IPCC, 2014). Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the principal GHG produced by
the transportation sector, have steadily increased with time (Greene and Schafer, 2003). In 2004, transport was responsible
for nearly a quarter of world energy-related GHG emissions with about three-quarters coming from road vehicles (Bond
et al., 2007; Chapman, 2007; Ribeiro et al., 2007; IEA, 2009, 2011; McCollum and Yang, 2009; Raux and Lee-Gosselin,
Corresponding author at: Agricultural Research Council, Institute for Soil, Climate and Water, Private Bag X79, Pretoria 0001, South Africa.
E-mail address: tongwanem@arc.agric.za (M. Tongwane).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2015.02.017
1361-9209/ 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

M. Tongwane et al. / Transportation Research Part D 37 (2015) 113

2010). Despite the global downturn in economic growth in recent years, global transport emissions still increased by 3.0%
between 2009 and 2010 (IEA, 2012). This increase of GHG emissions to the atmosphere contributes to anthropogenically
induced climate forcing.
In South Africa the transport sector contributes about a third of the total energy GHG emissions (CSIR, 2011; Merven et al.,
2012; ERC, 2013). The sector accounts for 10% of total emissions in South Africa and emissions have increased by 32.2%
between 2000 and 2010 (DEAT, 2009; DEA, 2014). Cruz et al. (2011) found that transport produced 46.3 million tonnes of
CO2 equivalent (MtCO2-eq) emissions from consumption of petrol and diesel in 2008, which is similar to the value reported
in DEA (2014). Unlike the global estimates, road transport in South Africa produces 8090% of the total transport emissions
(CSIR, 2011; Tongwane, 2013; DEA, 2014). Road transport was estimated to emit 29.6 MtCO2-eq, 29.8 MtCO2-eq,
36.6 MtCO2-eq and 43.4 MtCO2-eq in 1990, 1994, 2000 and 2010 respectively (DEAT, 2009; DEA, 2014). Land freight transportation accounted for 49% of total transport emissions in 2009 (CSIR, 2011). In Lesotho the transport sector was estimated
to contribute 14% towards the total country GHG emissions in 1994 (Lesotho, 2000). Road transport contributed 34% to total
energy emissions in 1994, and this declined to 29% in 2000 (Lesotho, 2000, 2013). Lesothos emission estimates show high
levels of uncertainty due to poor data quality.
Previous reports on GHG emissions in South Africa, including Scholes and van der Merwe (1996), DEAT (2003, 2009), Cruz
et al. (2011) and DEA (2014), used energy balance data and their results were nationally aggregated. These aggregated emissions often have inconsistent results due to improper allocation of fuel consumption between transport and other sectors
that use both petrol and diesel (DEAT, 2009). There are several studies which have shown road transport emissions at lower
administrative levels in South Africa. Road transport produced 92% of total transport emissions in Gauteng in 2007
(Tomaschek et al., 2012). Annual CO2 emissions from passenger cars have been estimated to be approximately
4.13 MtCO2-eq in Johannesburg (Goyns, 2008) and 2.14 MtCO2-eq in Durban (Thambiran and Diab, 2011). None of these
studies showed modal or provincial breakdowns which are required to plan appropriate mitigation activities at lower
administrative levels. Goyns (2008) did not produce results for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and both motorcars
and light duty vehicles (LDVs) were classied as private passenger vehicles. Similarly, the manner in which Scorgie et al.
(2004) categorized motor vehicles was not consistent with methods prescribed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change) (IPCC, 2006).
Comprehensive trafc observations started in South Africa in 1984 (Havenga and Pienaar, 2012). There were over 8 million registered road vehicles in South Africa in 2009, increasing at approximately 4% per year (RTMC, 2010). Based on
reported numbers from Lesotho (2000), (Ministry of Works and Public Transport) MWPT (2006), Starkey et al. (2009) and
Tongwane (2010), the annual growth rate of number of vehicles in Lesotho is estimated at around 5.3%, although this value
is highly variable. The growth rates of vehicle population in both South Africa and Lesotho are higher than the global annual
average of 3.5% (UNIDO, 2010). Because GHG emissions from road transport are growing, continuous monitoring of the emissions is needed in order to put better mitigation plans into place.
A transformation planning process in the transport sector requires an understanding of the current demand for mobility
of passengers and freight in the economy, the drivers of mobility in the transport sector and how these will evolve over time
(Merven et al., 2012). The primary motivation of this paper is to develop disaggregated road transport GHG emissions in
recent years in the two countries as a basis upon which other more detailed studies can build, especially future projections
for planning purposes. The aim of this work is therefore to (a) develop GHG emissions estimates for the road transport sectors in South Africa (at a provincial level) and Lesotho (at a national level) for the period 20002009; and (b) determine road
transport GHG emission intensities in the two countries.
Methodology
Study area
The Republic of South Africa and the Kingdom of Lesotho have unique political, geographic and economic characteristics.
South Africas gross domestic product (GDP) is ranked 33rd in the world, second only to Nigeria in Africa and 131 places
ahead of Lesotho (World Bank, 2009). Of the nine provinces in South Africa, Gauteng is the richest while the Eastern Cape
and Limpopo are the poorest (DAFF, 2011; Schwab, 2013; StatsSA, 2013a,b). Gauteng has the smallest land area and highest
human population while the Northern Cape has the largest land area and lowest population. Lesotho is one of the poorest
and least developed countries in the world and the countrys calculated GDP per capita comes closest to gures for the
Eastern Cape and Limpopo. South Africa completely surrounds the tiny Kingdom of Lesotho (Fig. 1). Lesotho is elevated
between about 1500 and 3482 m above mean sea level. About two-thirds of the country is mountainous and the remaining
third is the most densely populated.
Road transport GHG emissions in South Africa
Emissions of CO2 are best calculated on the basis of the amount and type of fuel combusted and its carbon content (IPCC,
2006). The IPCC Tier 2 approach, which uses local fuel properties, was employed in this study to calculate GHG emissions
from all modes of road transport. Annual CO2 emissions for each road transport mode were calculated from 2000 to 2009

M. Tongwane et al. / Transportation Research Part D 37 (2015) 113

Fig. 1. Geographic map showing provinces of South Africa and the Kingdom of Lesotho. EC (Eastern Cape), FS (Free State), GA (Gauteng), KZ (KwaZulu
Natal), LI (Limpopo), MP (Mpumalanga), NC (Northern Cape), NW (North West), WC (Western Cape), LSO (Lesotho).

in South Africa and Lesotho (Eq. (1)). The numbers of vehicles for each province of South Africa for all years were obtained
from the Road Trafc Management Corporations (RTMC) eNaTis (electronic National transport information system) RTMC
(2010). The eNaTis data provides high quality and up-to-date information on the national vehicle population in South
Africa (Goyns, 2008).
CO2 emissions were calculated as follows:

CO2 Tonnes

Sa;b  Da;b  FEa;b  NCVa;b  CEFa;b  1  CSa;b  FCOa;b 

44
12

where S is the number of vehicles; D the distance (km) travelled; FE the fuel efciency rate (L/km); NCV the net caloric
value of the fuel (TJ/L); CEF the carbon emission factor (ton C/TJ); CS the carbon stored; FCO the fraction of carbon oxidized;
a is the fuel type; and b the vehicle type; carbon emission factors for diesel and petrol, carbon stored and fraction of carbon
oxidized were 20.2 ton of C/TJ, 18.9 tonnes of C/TJ, 0 and 0.99, respectively (IPCC, 1997, 2006; Liao et al., 2011). To express
the results as CO2, total carbon oxidized was multiplied by 44/12 (IPCC, 1997; Singh et al., 2008; Liao et al., 2011).
Emissions of CH4 and N2O depend more on the driving cycles of the vehicles, fuel properties and technology than on fuel
consumption (Graham, 2006; Hueglin et al., 2006; Goyns, 2008; Graham et al., 2009). These two non-CO2 emissions were
determined using Eq. (2) with technology based emission factors adapted from Scorgie et al. (2004).

CH4 ; N2 O Tonnes

X
Sa;b  Da;b  EFa;b

where EF is the emission factor.

Scorgie et al. (2004) reported that in 2002 the percentage of vehicles tted with catalytic converters was 7.3% and that the
growth rate for the use of catalytic converters in new vehicles purchased in 2002 was 47.3%. The annual average growth rate
of vehicles used in this study was 3.9% based on 19902002 data. Projected estimates of the number of vehicles using the
technology between 2002 and 2009 were calculated as described in Eq. (3).

St p  1 rtn

where St is number of vehicles in year t; p is the principal or initial value in 2002 (47.3%); r is the annual growth rate; t is a
year and ranges from 2003 to 2009; n = 2002 is the initial year.
The emissions of CH4 and N2O were then determined between 2002 and 2009. The technology based emission factors
were obtained from Scorgie et al. (2004) and the following assumptions were made: (1) rate of introduction of vehicles with
new technologies into the national eet was the same for all vehicles, (2) all the inland provinces were regarded as being on
the Highveld, and (3) the current classications of motorcycles, motorcars and LDVs were taken to be represented by LCVs
(Light Commercial Vehicles) while the rest of the classications were taken to be M&H (Medium and Heavy) vehicles. CH4
petrol emission factors in the Coastal (Highveld) provinces were 0.03 (0.05) g/km for vehicles equipped with catalytic converters and 0.06 (0.04) g/km for vehicles not equipped with the converters. N2O petrol emission factors were 5 mg/km for all
provinces and vehicles. For diesel driven vehicles, CH4 emission factors were 0.01 g/km for LCVs in all provinces, 0.15 g/km
and 0.09 for M&H vehicles in the Coastal and Highveld provinces respectively. N2O emission factors for diesel driven vehicles
were 17 mg/km and 30 mg/km for LCVs and M&H respectively in all the provinces. Emissions for Lesotho could not be determined using technology based emissions factors due to limited data. For comparison purposes, emissions using energy based
emission factors were also calculated using Eq. (4).

M. Tongwane et al. / Transportation Research Part D 37 (2015) 113

CH4 ; N2 O Tonnes

Sa;b  Da;b  FEa;b  NCVa;b  EFa;b

where CH4 emissions factors for petrol and diesel were 33.0 and 3.9 kg/TJ respectively, and the factors for N2O were 3.2 and
3.9 kg/TJ respectively (IPCC, 2006). These emission factors do not take vehicle age into account. The South African motor
vehicle eet is generally considered to be old, as more than 50% of motorized vehicles are over 10 years old (Stead and
Molden, 2009). The age of a vehicle has an impact on the N2O and CH4 emissions and therefore it is recommended that
in future these emission factors be adjusted to account for vehicle age.
Distances travelled by vehicles are essential for the calculation of GHG in the transport sector (Tomaschek et al., 2012).
Data on consistent and credible mileage travelled by vehicles in South Africa is lacking (Merven et al., 2012). Provincial distances travelled by each vehicle were obtained from RTMC (2010); however, a description of how the data was calculated
was not available, making a full assessment of the data difcult. Scorgie et al. (2004) and Goyns (2008) detail that distances
travelled by vehicles in the country are usually estimated using fuel sales. RTMC (2010) data had mileage statistics for all the
years except 2009 where only the rst 8 months of data were available. As a result, the total vehicle kilometres travelled in
2009 were estimated using the 8 months of data and 2008 statistics. Changes in kilometres travelled between each month of
2009 and the corresponding month in 2008 were determined. An average monthly change was determined and this change
was applied to the last 4 months of 2009. Annual distances travelled in the last four months of 2008 were then multiplied by
these averages to estimate distances travelled during the same period in 2009. Uncertainty levels on the overall vehicle mileage data are generally anticipated to be large.
Fractions of vehicles using either petrol or diesel in 2009 (Table 1) and other preceding years were determined. Numbers
of vehicles per province, categorized by fuel type, during the years 20072009 were obtained from detailed eNaTis data provided by the Department of transport (DoT) (DoT, 2010). There was a small inconsistency (0.2%) of total number of vehicles
in the RTMC (2010) and DoT (2010). Numbers of vehicles (by fuel type) rst registered in 20002006 obtained from DoT
(2010) were used as proxies to determine fuel proles in each of these years (Table 2). Averages of the fuel proles for
the years 20072009 together with the proxies were used to estimate the proles during the years 20002006 (Eq. (5)).

Na;b;k Aa;b Q a;b;k =Aa;b

where N is the estimated percentages of number of vehicles of type b using fuel a during the years 20002006; A the average
number of vehicles using either fuel in 20072009; and Q the proxy during the rst year k of vehicle registration.
In 2006, an average of 95% and 65% of motorcars and LDVs used petrol and the respective remaining percentages were
diesel in South Africa. Goyns (2008) estimated fuel proles for private passenger vehicles which included both motorcars
and LDVs in the city of Johannesburg in 2006 to be 87% petrol and 13% diesel.
Little data exists in South Africa about fuel economy rates and the available values are inconsistent. A statistical mean of
fuel economy rates was calculated using data obtained from Taviv et al. (2008), Goyns (2008), Venter and Mohammed (2013)

Table 1
Number of motor vehicles, distances travelled (km), fuel shares (%), fuel economy (litres/100 km) and fractions (%) per fuel type in South Africa in 2009.
Vehicles numbers

Buses
LDVs
Minibuses
Motorcars
Motorcycles
Unknown
Trucks

Distances travelled

Fuel shares

RSA

LSO

RSA

LSO

Petrol

Diesel

Petrol

Fuel economy
Diesel

45,217
1,946,292
282,941
5,411,093
362,400
230,484
321,604

1363
26,606
5182
13,192

4049
5300

36,015
17,253
28,199
15,867
6041
1409
46,041

21,510
12,655
22,483
16,953

4014
33,172

10
65
90
94
100
8
5

90
35
10
6
0
92
95

49
10
13
10
4
9
20

45
8
12
8
4
15
36

Table 2
Average number (%) of motor vehicles using either petrol or diesel in South Africa, 20002009.
Buses

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

LDV

Minibuses

Motorcars

Trucks

Diesel

Petrol

Diesel

Petrol

Diesel

Petrol

Diesel

Petrol

Diesel

Petrol

90.0
90.1
90.1
87.0
90.1
87.8
87.6
88.7
90.5
91.3

10.0
9.9
9.9
13.0
9.9
12.2
12.4
11.3
9.5
8.7

35.1
35.0
35.1
29.7
35.1
35.1
35.1
35.0
36.1
36.7

64.9
65.0
64.9
70.3
64.9
64.9
64.9
65.0
63.9
63.3

8.7
8.7
8.8
8.6
8.9
9.0
9.0
8.3
10.0
11.0

91.3
91.3
91.2
91.4
91.1
91.0
91.0
91.7
90.0
89.0

4.7
4.8
4.8
5.2
4.8
4.8
4.8
5.2
5.8
6.2

95.3
95.2
95.2
94.8
95.2
95.2
95.2
94.8
94.2
93.8

94.5
94.5
94.8
93.9
94.9
94.7
94.9
94.2
95.1
95.5

5.5
5.5
5.2
6.1
5.1
5.3
5.1
5.8
4.9
4.5

M. Tongwane et al. / Transportation Research Part D 37 (2015) 113

and Mopani and Capricorn Districts (2010). Goyns (2008) characterized fuel consumption and emission factors for discrete
vehicles engine-operating patterns; while estimates from Venter and Mohammed (2013) were obtained from a bus operator
in their study area and averages from other studies. Taviv et al. (2008) and Goyns (2008) incorporated vehicle age proles in
their calculations of the economy rates. This study assumed that these average fuel economy rates did not vary between provinces and years. It was assumed that all motorcycles used petrol only. The general trend is that vehicles using diesel are
steadily increasing with time. The last decade has seen steady growth in gasoline consumption (1% per annum) but somewhat sharper diesel consumption growth at around 5% per annum (Merven et al., 2012). All these combine to reect the
levels of uncertainties in the fuel economy estimates in the country.
Conversion of fuel from units of volume to those of energy was done using the averages 34.01 MJ/L for petrol and
37.43 MJ/L for diesel (DME, 2002, 2005; eThekwini, 2006; Lamprecht, 2007; City of Johannesburg, 2008; StatsSA, 2009;
DoE, 2009, 2010; Leckel, 2009, 2010; Smith et al., 2012; Swart, 2012). The same conversion factors were used in all the provinces. GHG emissions were converted to CO2-eqemissions based on 100 years global warming potentials; 1 for CO2, 25 for
CH4 and 298 for N2O (Forster et al., 2007; Scheutz et al., 2009).
Road transport GHG emissions in Lesotho
Numbers of vehicles were not available in Lesotho in some years so estimates were made using 1992, 1994, 2002 and 2006
statistics obtained from Lesotho (2000), MWPT (2006), Starkey et al. (2009) and Tongwane (2010). The average annual growth
rate of the eet from 1992 to 2006 was calculated to be 5.3%. The number of vehicles in the missing years was therefore calculated according to Eq. (3) (where p is the population in 1992; t ranges from 1993 to 2009; and n is 1992). The recalculated total
number of vehicles in 2002 and the reported gure were similar. Numbers of vehicles in Lesotho in 2002 reported in MWPT
(2006) and Starkey et al. (2009) were not classied according to their categories as required by the 2006 IPCC guidelines. It
was therefore assumed that the ratios of each motor vehicle category to the total eet number in 1994 reported in Lesotho
(2000) applied for all the years. It was further assumed that distances travelled by vehicles in Lesotho were equal to 70% of
the average of distances travelled by vehicles in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo. This fraction made estimates of total fuel consumed by road transport in Lesotho to be an average of between 80% and 90% of the total energy from both petrol and diesel
over the years reported in BoS (2013) which were close to the assumption made by Lesotho (2000) that all petrol and 70% of
diesel in the country is used for road transportation based on estimates made in the mid-1980s. BoS (2013) reported volumes of
fuel imported into the country but did not provide details of how the fuel was used.
Modal intensities
Indicators are often used to compare emission rates among modes of road transport and between other sources of
emissions. Modal intensities provide a measure of the carbon intensity associated with transporting various loads
(Becken and Patterson, 2006; Zheng et al., 2011; Zhou et al., 2011) and provide a common benchmark for comparing national
or historical emissions (International Transport Forum, 2010). Modal intensities were calculated to determine the efciency
of road transportation in South Africa. Emissions per passenger-kilometres (pass-km) for passenger transport and
tonne-kilometres (ton-km) for freight transport were calculated for the year 2003 using that years provincial mid-year
population estimates obtained from StatsSA (2003) and the national household travel survey statistics (DoT, 2005)
for 2003. Provincial GDP data for South Africa (StatsSA, 2013a) and national value for Lesotho were also used to calculate
emissions per GDP in 2009.
Key emitting modes and trend analysis
The most important sources contributing to the total road transport emissions were calculated using the IPCC (2006) level
assessment method (Eq. (6)). IPCC (2006) encourages the use of key category analysis to compare contributions of different
sources to the overall emissions. Key sources have the most signicant impact to the total emissions and are best addressed
by at least the Tier 2 approach (Tulyasuwan et al., 2011). Key sources are considered to be those modes that when summed
together in descending order of magnitude add up to 95% of the sum of all Lx,t (see Eq. (6)) (IPCC, 2006; Cruz-Nez et al.,
2008). Key source identication assists to detect areas that need more focus in order to improve efciency of the emission
estimates (IPCC, 2006; Tulyasuwan et al., 2011). The other method for assessing key categories is the trend assessment (Eq.
(7)) (IPCC, 2006; Tulyasuwan et al., 2011). The purpose of this assessment is to identify modes that may not be large enough
to be identied by key category assessment, but whose trend is signicantly different from the trend of the overall inventory
(IPCC, 2006; Cruz-Nez et al., 2008; Tulyasuwan et al., 2011). In this case, the largest category should enter in the list of key
categories followed by the next largest categories until the cumulative total is greater than 95% (IPCC, 2006; Tulyasuwan
et al., 2011).

Lx;t jEx;t j

.X
jEy;t j

where Lx,t is the level assessment for source x in latest inventory year (year t); |Ex,t| the absolute value of emission estimate of
P
source x in year t; and y|Ey,t| the total contribution of the absolute values of emissions in year t; and,

M. Tongwane et al. / Transportation Research Part D 37 (2015) 113

T x;t


"
P
# P


y Ex;0 
y Ey;0 
jEx;0 j  Ex;t  Ex;0

 
P

P    


Ex;0 




y Ey;0
 y Ey;0 

where Tx,t is trend assessment of source x in year t as compared to base year (year 0); |Ex,0| the absolute value of emission
P
estimate of source x in year 0; Ex,t and Ex,0 are real values of estimates of source x in years t and 0 respectively; and yEx,t
P
and yEx,0 are total inventory estimates in years t and 0, respectively; y is the absolute values of emissions and removals
in year t.
Results and discussion
Road transport GHG emissions in 2009
Road transport in South Africa produced a total of 43.5 MtCO2-eq GHG emissions in 2009 from consumption of petrol and
diesel. Motorcars and trucks produce a combined contribution of 70.6% of total road emissions in South Africa. Motorcars are
responsible for 80.2% of the emissions from passenger vehicles. Total emissions from freight transportation by road account
for 48.4% of national road emissions (Table 3) which is similar to that reported by Chapman (2007) for OECD (Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries. Road freight emission gures in South Africa in 2009 are also similar to the 20.3 MtCO2-eq calculated by CSIR (2011).
At provincial level, emissions of freight vehicles are higher than passenger vehicle emissions in the Northern Cape (60%),
Mpumalanga (57%), Free State (54%) and North West (52%), and are equivalent in KwaZulu-Natal. Gauteng contributes 33% of
the total road transport emissions and is the largest emitting province in South Africa, while the Northern Cape has the lowest emissions with only 2% of the total. Motorcars are the largest contributor to modal emissions and have the biggest share
in Gauteng with 47% of the provincial road emissions. Other provinces where motorcars account for more than 40% are the
Free State, Limpopo and the Western Cape. Motorcars in the Northern Cape are the lowest contributors to provincial emissions, accounting for only 29%. Mpumalanga and the Northern Cape are the only provinces where emissions are dominated
by trucks and not motorcars.
Consumption of petrol and diesel by road transport produced a total of 0.28 MtCO2-eq in Lesotho in 2009. Unlike in South
Africa, freight transport contributes the largest share with nearly two-thirds of total road transport emissions in the country
coming from this category. High emissions from heavy duty trucks and LDVs are inuenced largely by the structure of the
transport sector and the terrain of the country. These modes of transport are used to transport all goods within this mountainous country. They also have the advantage of being durable and can reach areas which other modes cannot. LDVs would
also usually ferry passenger loads in these mountainous circumstances. However, the shares of each mode of transport
should still be treated with caution as motor vehicle classication in the country, as outlined in the Lesotho (1981) Road
Trafc Act, is not consistent with the current classication used by the IPCC. The two lowland districts of Maseru and
Leribe which are the major economic areas are the largest emitters in the country (Tongwane, 2010).
Improved technology employed in new vehicles generally reduces net GHG emissions. In South Africa, CO2-eq emissions
calculated using energy based emission factors are 1% higher than similar Tier 2 emissions obtained when using technology
based factors. The use of technology based factors leads to a 34% and 9% reduction in CH4 and N2O emission estimates,
respectively. Technology in the form of catalytic converters provides post-combustion control devices which improve combustion, reduce CH4 emissions from vehicles (Beer et al., 2002) but result in the increase of CO2 production. N2O emissions
from motor vehicles equipped with the converters are generally greater than those without (Beer et al., 2002; Behrentz et al.,
2004). However, net emissions using either approach can be higher than the other and it is difcult to say which approach to
inventory development would produce the most credible results (Graham, 2006).
Road transport GHG emissions in South Africa are closely related to vehicle population. Data shows that emissions are
more closely correlated to vehicle population (coefcient greater than 0.7) than distance travelled (coefcient less than
0.5). Total emissions correlate (coefcient greater than 0.9) with vehicle kilometres (a product of total vehicle population

Table 3
Road transport GHG emissions (MtCO2-eq) in South Africa and Lesotho in 2009.

ROAD
Passengers
Motorcars
Minibuses
Buses
Motorcycles
Freight
LDV
Trucks
Others

EC

FS

GA

KZ

LI

MP

NC

NW

WC

RSA

LSO

3.1
1.6
1.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
1.4
0.6
0.8
0.0

3.2
1.4
1.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
1.7
0.6
1.1
0.0

13.5
7.7
6.3
0.8
0.5
0.1
5.8
2.6
3.2
0.0

7.1
3.5
2.8
0.4
0.3
0.0
3.6
1.4
2.2
0.0

2.1
1.1
0.9
0.1
0.1
0.0
1.0
0.4
0.6
0.0

4.3
1.8
1.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
2.5
0.8
1.6
0.0

1.1
0.4
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.2
0.5
0.0

2.6
1.2
1.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
1.3
0.5
0.8
0.0

6.4
3.4
2.8
0.4
0.2
0.0
3.0
1.2
1.8
0.0

43.5
22.3
17.9
2.4
1.8
0.2
21.1
8.4
12.7
0.2

0.28
0.10
0.04
0.03
0.03

0.18
0.06
0.12
0.00

M. Tongwane et al. / Transportation Research Part D 37 (2015) 113

Fig. 2. Trend of CO2-eq (Gg), petrol prices (cents/litre), vehicle kilometres, number of vehicles and distances they travelled in South Africa, 20002009.

and mileage) (Fig. 2). Vehicle kilometres increased from 98,000 million (Mackey and Roodt, 2002) to 131,000 million in 2009
despite the general decrease of mileage of vehicles with time (Tongwane, 2013). The emissions and mileage decreased in
2008 when fuel prices were high, but number of vehicles continued to increase. This relationship suggests that even though
it is important to reduce mileage of vehicles, it would be of much great signicance to develop plans that can decrease
growth rates of motor vehicles in the country. The close relationship between the product of vehicle population and mileage
with emissions reafrms that distances travelled by vehicles in South Africa are obtained by using total fuel sales and number of vehicles.
Road transport GHG emissions in South Africa presented in this paper are comparable to results of other studies.
Emissions obtained in this study (34.6 MtCO2-eq) for 2000 are between the 36.6 MtCO2-eq and 33.3 MtCO2-eq range estimated by DEAT (2009) and DEA (2014) respectively. Emissions peaked in 2007 with a total of over 45.6 MtCO2-eq from
all modes. The emissions in 2007 were higher than the 41.2 MtCO2-eq estimated by DEA (2014). Total road transport emissions in Gauteng (14.2 MtCO2-eq) in 2007 were similar to the results (14.8 MtCO2-eq) of Tomaschek et al. (2012). Previous
road transport emission estimates for Lesotho range between 0.22 MtCO2-eq for 1994, 0.29 MtCO2-eq for 2000 (Lesotho,
2013) and 0.31 MtCO2-eq for 2006 (Tongwane, 2010). These values are not consistent with the 2009 results presented in this
paper.
For a Tier 1 approach aggregated annual fuel consumption data in South Africa was obtained from the energy balance
statistics (DoE, 2010, 2014) and data from Lesotho was obtained from BoS (2013). These data were multiplied by the IPCC
(2006) default emission factors to calculate total emissions. Between 2000 and 2009 Tier 2 approach provides emission estimates in South Africa that are on average 5.3% less than those estimated using the Tier 1 approach between 2000 and 2007
(Table 4). The two approaches show a difference in the pattern of the trend in 2008 and 2009. The Tier 2 approach shows a
decrease in emissions in 2008 but Tier 1 suggests an increase and the opposite situation holds for 2009. Differences in the
results obtained from the two approaches are generally a result of; (1) the emission factors and (2) allocation of off-road
emissions to road transport emissions. At Tier 1, the emission factors assume that all the carbon present in the fuel is oxidized during or immediately following the combustion process while at Tier 2, the CO2 emission factors may be adjusted to
take account of unoxidized carbon or carbon emitted as a non-CO2 gas (IPCC, 2006; Vaccari and Vitali, 2011). Off-road transport contributes 13% to total transport sector GHG emissions in South Africa (Tongwane, 2013). For Lesotho, the differences
and the overall uncertainties are also mainly due to data quality. Differences in the results of the Tier 1 and more detailed
Tier 2 approaches highlights the need to shift towards the more detailed Tier 2 approach, particularly since road transport is
a key category in South Africa (DEAT, 2009).
Road transport GHG emissions increased substantially in both South Africa and Lesotho during the period 20002009.
Average annual growth rates of road transport emissions between 2000 and 2009 were 2.6% in South Africa and 2.5% in
Lesotho. Annual rate of change of the emissions between 2000 and 2007 was higher at 3.9% per annum in South Africa.
The ndings of this study for South Africa are similar to the 2.2% growth rate between 2000 and 2010 reported by DEA
(2014) and 4.1% growth (between 2000 and 2007) provided by the International Transport Forum (2010). Annual growth
rates of road transport GHG emissions in Africa and the world were 3.7% and 2.2% between 1990 and 2005 respectively
(World Bank, 2009). Between 2007 and 2008 road transport emissions decreased by 4.4% in South Africa and by 1.5% in
Lesotho. DEA (2013) estimated a decrease of 2.7% over the same period in South Africa. The decrease was in all modes of
road transport in South Africa except minibuses (4.0%) and other unknown vehicles (11.5%) where the emissions increased.
Motorcars and LDVs had the largest decreases of 6.1% and 4.8% respectively. This decline may have been attributed to the
sharp increase in the fuel price in 2008, after which it declined again in 2009. Fuel price is a primary transport cost driver
in South Africa, and its increase inates transport costs accordingly (CSIR, 2012). Motorists respond to higher fuel prices with

M. Tongwane et al. / Transportation Research Part D 37 (2015) 113

Table 4
Road transport Tier 1 and Tier 2 emissions (MtCO2-eq) in South Africa and Lesotho.
South Africa

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

Lesotho

Tier 1

Tier 2

Difference (%)

Tier 1

Tier 2

Difference (%)

36.7
37.2
37.9
39.4
42.3
43.7
45.1
49.4
52.4
51.0

34.8
35.3
36.0
37.8
39.8
41.5
43.0
45.6
43.6
43.9

5.2
5.2
5.0
3.9
5.9
4.9
4.6
7.7
16.8
13.9

0.29
0.29
0.33
0.32
0.33
0.36
0.40

0.22
0.24
0.25
0.27
0.29
0.27
0.26
0.27
0.26
0.28

6.2
1.5
16.8
17.1
19.8
28.0
30.1

a range of behavioral adaptations, starting with reduced discretionary driving and later shifting to public transport, which
may become over-subscribed, and poorer public transport commuters may resort to walking or even be unable to travel
at all (McKinsey Global Institute, 2009; Wakeford, 2013).
After the decrease in 2008, net road transport emissions increased by 0.7% in 2009 in South Africa and by 5.7% in Lesotho.
In South Africa, the growth of emissions was generally from passenger transportation (3.3%) while net emissions from freight
vehicles further decreased (2.6%). This decline could be due to the reduction in freight transport activity caused by poor economic environment at this time (Raux and Lee-Gosselin, 2010; CSIR, 2011). The largest transport emission increases in South
Africa in 2009 were in the Free State (5.6%) and Eastern Cape (2.5%) while emissions decreased in the Northern Cape (2.5%),
Western Cape (1.9%), Mpumalanga (0.8%) and North West (0.4%). The Free State had increases in passenger emissions nearly
double the values of other provinces and emissions from trucks increased only in this province.
Trends and key road transport GHG emitting modes
Key road transport GHG emitting sources in South Africa in 2009 are motorcars, trucks and LDVs in descending order of
contribution. Minibuses also contribute to the 95% key category threshold in the North West, Mpumalanga, Free State and
KwaZulu-Natal. The contribution of motorcars in all provinces is similar at approximately 40% of the threshold, highlighting
the importance of this mode to the total road transport emissions. GHG emissions from key road transport emission sources
in all provinces of South Africa decreased with time, except for trucks (Table 5). Contributions from motorcars gradually
decreased until 2009 when they started to increase, and this situation extends to minibuses. Contributions from LDVs either
decreased or remained constant depending on the province. Increases of emissions from trucks are mainly due to rapid
increases of annual distances these vehicles travel. Distances travelled by trucks are more than twice the distances travelled
by other modes and they are generally increasing with time, while distances travelled by other modes are generally decreasing (RTMC, 2010; Tongwane, 2013). All modes except other unknown vehicles are key sources of road transport GHG emissions in Lesotho. Freight transport in Lesotho accounts for 63% of the threshold.
Compared to 2000, trend analysis showed that trucks, motorcars, LDVs and buses are key contributors to the increases in
road transport emissions in 2005 and 2009 in South Africa (Table 6). Although trucks and motorcars are in principle the two
highest key contributors, LDVs follow trucks in some provinces. Contribution of trucks to the increases in emissions is consistently high in all provinces except in Limpopo in 2005. Trucks contribute the minimum to the threshold in this province
and they are exceeded by motorcars, LDVs and minibuses. Moreover, contribution of trucks to the accumulated 95% key category assessment threshold is more than twice that of motorcars and LDVs which contribute nearly 20% each to the total
accumulated 95% threshold. Nearly all modes of road transport contributed to the 95% threshold of the key category assessment. The Northern Cape is the only province where contributions of only three modes sum to the threshold. Increases of
emissions from trucks are mainly due to the fact that number of trucks increased rapidly since the deregulation of road
transport in the 1990s and this mode has become the main transporter of inter-urban and rural cargo in the country at
the expense of railroad (DEAT, 2003; Van der Mescht, 2006).
Modal intensities
Public transport has the lowest modal intensities in South Africa compared to private passenger transportation (Table 7).
Minibuses have the lowest intensities showing that they are the most used mode of passenger transport in the country.
Public transport is more carbon intensive in the Northern Cape than in any other province in South Africa. This suggests that
occupancy rates of public transport in this province are generally smaller than in the other provinces. Lowest intensities for
public transport (<10 g of CO2/pass-km) are in KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo, indicating higher passenger occupancy rates for
each kilometre commuted. Most commuters choose minibuses because this mode is fast, affordable and exible compared to
other modes of public transport. Motorcar modal intensities are high especially in Mpumalanga, North West and Gauteng.
With the exception of motorcycles, the range of modal intensities obtained in this study are similar to the results of Venter

M. Tongwane et al. / Transportation Research Part D 37 (2015) 113

Table 5
Contribution (%) of the key sources to the total provincial road transport GHG emissions in South Africa for selected years between 2000 and 2009.
EC

FS

GA

KZ

LI

MP

NC

NW

WC

Motorcars
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2009

48.8
46.1
43.9
43.4
42.4
43.6

39.3
37.1
36.7
36.3
33.2
35.0

54.4
52.3
50.7
47.6
46.7
46.9

43.1
42.5
41.2
40.5
37.8
39.3

41.7
42.7
41.6
41.5
38.9
40.7

37.8
34.7
35.1
33.9
31.8
32.2

32.7
32.1
30.5
28.8
27.9
29.0

41.7
38.4
39.3
39.8
37.1
37.7

47.4
46.9
45.5
43.6
40.8
42.8

Trucks
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2009

21.8
24.8
27.1
27.4
28.3
27.2

31.3
33.6
33.9
34.0
37.3
35.4

16.4
18.4
20.1
22.9
24.0
23.7

27.6
28.2
29.6
30.2
32.9
31.2

28.4
27.8
28.8
29.2
31.5
29.9

32.6
35.7
35.4
36.3
38.6
38.1

37.7
38.2
40.1
42.1
42.5
41.4

28.8
32.3
31.1
30.7
33.3
32.8

23.3
23.8
25.0
26.8
29.7
28.2

LDV
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2009

19.3
19.1
18.7
18.8
19.0
18.9

19.3
19.2
19.1
19.2
19.1
19.1

19.1
19.1
19.0
19.2
19.2
19.0

19.1
19.0
19.0
19.1
19.0
19.1

19.4
19.2
19.2
19.0
19.3
19.0

19.3
19.2
19.1
19.1
19.2
19.2

19.3
19.2
18.9
18.8
19.0
18.9

19.3
19.3
19.1
19.2
19.2
19.1

19.1
19.0
19.2
19.2
19.1
18.8

6.3
6.1
5.9
5.7
5.6
5.7

5.2
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.5
4.7

7.1
6.9
6.7
6.3
6.2
6.2

5.7
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.1
5.3

5.6
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.1
5.3

5.0
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.3
4.3

4.4
4.3
4.1
3.9
3.9
4.0

5.5
5.1
5.2
5.3
4.9
4.9

6.3
6.1
6.0
5.7
5.5
5.6

Minibuses
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2009

Table 6
Accumulated (%) key source contributions to increases of road transport GHG emissions in South Africa in 2005 and 2009 compared to 2000.

a
b
c
4
g
e
f

EC

FSa

GA

KZ

LIb,e

MP

NCc,f

NWg

WCd

RSA

2005
Trucks
Motorcars
LDV
Buses

54.3
72.2
88.7
96.3

52.2
70.3
85.9
96.5

49.7
69.4
89.0
96.1

47.3
69.9
88.6
96.3

40.2
69.3
80.5
89.3

47.4
69.5
88.2
95.6

72.4
85.3
95.2

45.9
70.2
88.0
95.9

50.4
70.3
88.8
96.8

50.3
69.9
88.7
96.3

2009
Trucks
Motorcars
LDV
Buses

47.9
71.6
88.9
95.9

45.9
69.6
88.2
95.9

51.0
69.8
88.5
96.4

48.0
68.9
88.0
95.8

78.2
86.1
91.4
94.5

47.9
69.9
88.9
96.1

69.2
84.9
96.4

53.1
71.1
88.4
97.0

54.2
72.9
90.1
97.1

50.3
70.4
88.7
96.3

2005
2005
2005
2005
2009
2009
2009

Trucks; LDV; Motorcars; Buses.

Motorcars; LDV; Minibuses; Trucks.
Trucks; LDV; Buses;
Trucks; LDV; Motorcars; Buses.
Trucks; LDV; Motorcars; Buses.
Trucks; LDV; Buses.
Trucks; LDV; Motorcars; Buses.

Table 7
Provincial road transport modal intensities in South Africa in 2003.
EC

FS

GA

KZ

LI

MP

NC

NW

WC

RSA

gCO2/pass-km
Minibuses
Buses
Motorcars
Motorcycles

9.0
22.1
63.4
101.9

9.0
65.0
65.9
87.4

12.5
58.5
81.8
105.6

7.2
15.1
64.0
101.9

8.0
9.6
78.3
125.0

9.9
25.0
83.8
87.0

22.1
155.3
53.3
114.9

7.2
22.1
82.2
110.3

16.6
61.0
55.7
105.3

11.3
48.2
69.8
104.4

gCO2/ton-km
LDV
Trucks

72.3
32.8

59.5
27.2

70.4
27.3

71.2
32.4

85.6
38.5

58.0
25.7

77.8
36.7

78.4
38.3

71.1
29.8

71.6
32.1

10

M. Tongwane et al. / Transportation Research Part D 37 (2015) 113

Fig. 3. CO2-eq intensity from road transport emissions in 2009 in South Africa and Lesotho. Intensities for Africa and World are for 2005 based on total
transport emissions (World Bank, 2009; IEA, 2012).

and Mohammed (2013) in the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality in the Eastern Cape. In addition to fuel consumption rates of the vehicles, modal intensities are also highly inuenced by occupancy rates per vehicle trip (Tongwane, 2013;
Venter and Mohammed, 2013). The road transport CO2 modal intensities calculated for 2003 are comparable with the values
for developing countries shown in Ribeiro et al. (2007). LDVs have modal intensities higher than that of trucks, showing that
trucks emit less per unit load transported. On the other hand, low intensities for trucks suggest that usage of this mode is
common for bulk freight transport in the country compared to LDVs. The current challenges caused by the modal imbalance
between road and rail are not sustainable (Havenga and Pienaar, 2012). The possible shift from road to rail transport can be
expected to substantially reduce freight emissions (Borel-Saladin and Turok, 2013). Research has shown that freight rail is
less GHG intensive than trucks (Prozzi et al., 2002).
Emissions per capita in Lesotho are smaller than South Africas provincial rates and Africas average. However, road transports contribution to the economy of Lesotho is more carbon intensive than most provinces in South Africa. Gauteng, the
Western Cape and Free State have the highest emissions per capita while Mpumalanga has the highest emissions per
GDP (in United States Dollars (USD)) (Fig. 3). Average emissions per capita are 1.5 metric tonnes and values range from
0.1 metric tonnes in India to 6.5 metric tonnes in the United States (International Transport Forum, 2010). Compared to
Africa and the world, road transport emissions per USD in South Africa and Lesotho are high. Total emissions per GDP in
USD in South Africa are generally higher than the rates for most developing countries, but they are lower than rates for developed countries (Tongwane, 2013). The emissions per capita are similar to the global average but higher than the rates for
Africa.

Conclusions
Road transportation activities produced a total of 43.5 MtCO2-eq and 0.28 MtCO2-eq in South Africa and Lesotho in 2009
respectively. Motorcars and trucks accounted for 70.6% of the total emissions from road transport in South Africa while
freight transportation accounted for close to two thirds of road transportation in Lesotho. Gauteng is the largest producer
of road transport emissions with a third of the total and the lowest emitter is the Northern Cape contributing approximately
2.0%. Road transport emissions are continually increasing with time in South Africa (2.6% per year) and Lesotho (2.5% per
year) and the rates are generally higher than the rest of Africa and global estimates. The emissions in both South Africa
and Lesotho decreased in 2008 and slightly increased in 2009. Share of the contribution of trucks to the total annual emissions is increasing with time while shares of other modes are generally decreasing with time in South Africa. Contribution of
trucks to the accumulation of 95% key category assessment threshold is more than twice the contributions of motorcars and
LDVs. Minibuses are the most oversubscribed road passenger transporting mode in South Africa. Contributions of road transport to the economies of Mpumalanga and the Free State are more carbon intensive than in any other province. Emissions per
GDP in South Africa and Lesotho are higher than global and Africas averages, but emissions per capita in Lesotho are lower
than global and Africas averages as well as the rates of all provinces in South Africa.
This study showed that the rates of increase of road transport GHG emissions are high in both South Africa and Lesotho.
Possible mitigation activities to curb these increases include modal shift from private to public transportation and from road
freight to rail. This requires investments that will improve speed, accessibility and reliability of mass and freight transportation especially in huge settlement and industrial areas. At strategic points along the railways, links between rail and road

M. Tongwane et al. / Transportation Research Part D 37 (2015) 113

11

need to be improved so as to encourage the use of rail. Minibus taxis, currently the most convenient mode for mass transportation, are already fully utilized and would not be readily capable to accommodate new commuters swiftly. Data collection systems need to be strengthened and sustained to be able to calculate and monitor the GHG emissions continuously in
both South Africa and Lesotho. These systems include distances travelled by each mode of transport, loads carried and fuel
consumption proles.
Appendix A. Supplementary material
Supplementary material for greenhouse gas emissions from road transport in South Africa and Lesotho between 2000 and
2009. Supplementary data associated with this article can be found, in the online version, at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.
2015.02.017.
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