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ALTERNATIVE
FUTURES FOR
WEST AFRICA
GIBS | A
INTRODUCTION
AND DOCUMENT
STRUCTURE
The purpose of this study was to develop a long-range view of the major changes taking place in the West African region, and the
member states of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in particular. By developing a future-orientated
perspective of change in West Africa, the study provides the basis for contemplating alternative plausible scenarios for the
region. These, consisting of a baseline (business-as-usual) and two alternative stories of the state of the region by 2063, provide a
provocative narrative depiction of the interplay between political and economic, socio-cultural and technological factors that will
shape the regions future. These stories, while informed conjecture, enable the development of proactive foresight and strategic
insight in the options before civil society leaders, policy makers and business leaders wanting to secure a prosperous and stable
future for the people of West Africa.
The document is structured for maximum accessibility to the insights derived from the work. As such, a brief note on the
methodology used is followed by an executive summary and alternative scenarios, which were produced on the basis of the trend
analysis and research. This concise first part gives the reader a window into the complex and expansive subject under study.
Thereafter follow lists of identified trends under their thematic categories, which are supported by the extensive desk research
conducted in preparation for the in-country component of the study. The output of this study should ideally be used as an input to
stakeholder deliberation on policies, plans and strategies developed for the region.
GIBS | 1
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
METHODOLOGY:
TREND SCANNING
AND ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIOS
This study is comprised of an iterative scenario planning process aimed at producing a baseline scenario and alternative future
scenarios for the region of West Africa. The purpose of these scenarios is to aid leaders in formulating strategic and policy
responses to the trends shaping the future of the region. In order to produce a robust set of alternative scenarios, the following key
project steps were taken: Three research phases were conceptualised.
PHASE 1: Desk research was conducted in the form of a contextual study of the (i) Trends Shaping West Africa, and the (ii) Role of
Civil Society (and Religious Institutions in particular) within the regions public square. This was done by using an environmental
scanning method, which identifies key events, drivers of change, actions by significant actors in the system, drawing heavily on
secondary quantitative and qualitative data to produce a cursory assessment of the current trajectory of the region. These insights
were compiled into a pre-research report that formed the basis of in-country engagements and interviews.
PHASE 2: Virtual and in-country interviews and a set of workshops were conducted where semi-structured interviews with
actors in the region provided a second iteration of research and review. These included; direct 1-on-1 interviews with civil society
leaders in Lagos, Nigeria. Participation in a 3-day intensive high level stakeholder dialogue on the Future of the Sahel region
which was hosted by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Dakar, Senegal, with participants including heads
of state, representatives of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the African Union (AU), the
African Development Bank (AfDB), and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Similarly, interviews were
conducted with local civil society leaders in Dakar, Senegal. Observations were recorded from attendance of a portion of the
2015 Annual Economic Summit of Nigeria, held in Abuja. Local community leaders were consulted in Lungi, Sierra Leone. This
array of interactions served both to confirm existing findings and add particular nuance to the relative importance and systemic
relevance of key drivers of change in the region. Simultaneously, the in-depth immersion of the researchers into the region added
immeasurably to the qualitative analytic dimension of the study.
PHASE 3: The final stage of the study, entailing an analysis and strategic review, aimed at assessing the alternative scenarios and
adding to the strategic agenda of civil society leaders for public engagement in West Africa, is understood as an ongoing process of
informal and unstructured dialogue at organisational level.
2 | GIBS
GIBS | 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
AND ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIOS
After extensive analysis and the exploration of over 130 trends
aecting the future of West Africa, and the ECOWAS region
in particular, a set of 6 megatrends were synthesised that are
expected to form the baseline scenario for the region. These
are:
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
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GIBS | 5
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
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GIBS | 7
TREND ANALYSIS
MACRO-ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS
POLITICAL MEGATREND
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
ECONOMIC MEGATREND
Economic Duality between Emergent Agro-pastoralism and Commodities, Overshadow Meagre
Diversification in South Hamstrung by Infrastructure Backlog
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
8 | GIBS
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Domestic investment
Foreign investment
Dominant extractive sector
Accelerating infrastructure investments
Constrained infrastructure for business
Most FID from outside ECOWAS region
Infrastructure development lag between North and South Africa
Coherent and promising ground transport network
Underdeveloped railways network (extractives legacy)
Vast watercourse interdependence
Budding regional free air travel and airport infrastructure
Growing economic integration
Illegal clandestine trac (UNDP, Dakar
Persistent inadequate infrastructure (UNDP, Dakar)
Micro credit programme by Boko Haram more ecient than
state alternative (UNDP, Dakar)
31 Tracking as survival strategies by communities
disconnect with elitist discourse (UNDP, Dakar)
GIBS | 9
SOCIAL MEGATREND
Poor and Unequal Strata Persists Amid Growing Access to Basic, Increasingly Urban Services at the Risk of
Rural Warlord Landlords.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
TECHNOLOGY MEGATREND
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
Centralised, Costly Energy Constraints Overcome by Mobile Connectivity of the Otherwise Detached.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
16
CULTURAL MEGATREND
Zealous Religious Duality Amid Ethnocide and Hopelessness See Collapsing Norms and Rising Pockets of
Attractiveness of Radical Islam.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
DEMOGRAPHIC MEGATREND
Accelerating Youth Bulge Migrates to Urban Coastline.
1
2
3
10 | GIBS
ECOLOGICAL MEGATREND
Rising Food Insecurity Amid Desertification, Climate Variability and Water Tensions.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Individualist Materialism Couple Proselysation Drive and Grassroot Adherence, while Thin Ecumenism Occasionally
Emerges from Social Irrelevance
ORGANIC STRUCTURES
ECUMENICAL (META)
STRUCTURES
INTERFAITH STRUCTURES
1 Emergence on regional
networks.
2 Experienced with peacebuilding, shared security,
sustainable development.
determination movements
among intelligentsia.
2 Persistent Pan-regional
undertone.
3 Persistent student movement
underbelly.
4 Persistent broad coalition
between student bodies,
community organizations,
religious groups, trade unions
and womans associations.
5 Selected professional network
enablement.
6 Emergent antiauthoritarianism role for civil
society movements.
7 Facilitative and mediation
role for Church structures in
transitions or before elections.
8 Continued external (Western)
Assistance.
9 Exponential growth of NGOs.
10 Independence of civil society
under pressure.
11 Vulnerability to global
economic and cultural forces.
12 Marked contribution to
fostering social cohesion.
13 High levels of proselytization.
2
3
4
5
6
7
memberships, complex
and capable national
organizations and politically
sophisticated leaders, financial
security, independence and
international contacts.
Occasional competition or
inter-group suspicion.
Orientated towards
development agenda.
Post-missionary era autonomy
among Christian churches.
Widely representative of
mainstream Churches globally.
Strong evangelical and
educational thrusts.
Experienced in grassroots
development (agriculture etc.)
GIBS | 11
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
Systems Analysis of Economic Change Factors in West Africa:
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
(E) CONSTRAINED
INFRASTRUCTURE FOR
BUSINESS
+
(E) EMERGING
AGROPASTORALISM
ENDEMIC FACTORS
(E) INCREASED
PIRACY,
KIDNAPPINGS AND
ARMED ROBBERY
AT SEA
(E) GROWING
DOMINANCE OF
EXTRACTIVE
SECTOR
(E
+
+
(E) GROWING
HYDROCARBON
RESERVE DISCOVERIES
(E) UNDERDEVELOPED
RAILWAY NETWORK
(EXTRACTIVES LEGACY)
(E) INFRASTRUCTURE
DEVELOPMENT LAG BETWEEN
NORTH AND SOUTH AFRICA
12 | GIBS
(E) HUB OF
EMERGENT
MANUFACTURING
AND SERVICES
+
(NIGERIA)
+
+
(E) INCREMENTAL
DIVERSIFICATION
+
+
M
S
+
(E) NOTABLE COMPARATIVE
ECONOMIC GROWTH
+
+
(E) ACCELERATING
INFRASTRUCTURE
INVESTMENTS
GIBS | 13
(P) POST-COLONIAL
INSTITUTIONAL INFLUENCE
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
(P
A
(P) POPULATION
PRESSURE
(P) INTENSIFYING
TERRORISM
(P) DISTANT PERIURBAN CONFLICT
(P) RECURRING
RESOURCE CONFLICT
+
14 | GIBS
+ DE
(P) ALIENATION
OF SOCIAL
STRATIFICATION
(P) MERGER
BETWEEN ECONOMIC
MARGINALIZATION OF
+ EXTREMISM
+
(P) GROWING POLITICAL WILL
TO TACKLE INSECURITY
(P) STRONGER
RECOGNITION OF VALUE OF
AU MEMBERSHIP
+
(P) DECLINING
AUTOCRACIES
+
(P) PRIORITIZATION OF
SECURITY IN RESPONSE TO
BOKO HARAM
(P) ANOCRACY TO
+ DEMOCRACY TRANSITION
+
+
(P) UNDERMINING OF
ELECTIONS BY INSECURITY
+
+
(P) RECURRING TENSIONS
AND WAR
+
+
(P) CIVIL
SOCIETY
ACTIVISM VIA
THE MILITARY
(P) POCKETED
INTERNATIONAL
TERRORISM
+ NETWORKING
C
F
GIBS | 15
BACKGROUND
RESEARCH
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
This section will explore the major trends shaping the region, with particular emphasis on the following trends in the
macro environment;
POLITICAL TRENDS: Current political status quo across the region, in terms of; political systems, stability of the
systems and comparison to the nations strata with the socio-cultural composition;
ECONOMIC TRENDS: Developments in terms of investment, both domestic and foreign direct investment with
a broad indication of sectors targeted, infrastructure development as an indicator of fixed asset formation, and
integration in real terms in the form of monetary unions, trade and regulation or migration policy
SOCIAL TRENDS: Outlining the demographic trends in a cursory fashion to depict the broad future age cohort
distribution, cultural-linguistic composition and specifically religious aliation and practice at national levels
Technological Trends: Advancement in terms of access to electricity, mobile connectivity as an indicator of
technology adoption and the extent of media proliferation and consumption
ECOLOGICAL TRENDS: Macro environmental changes in terms of rainfall and climate, availability of arable land and
the condition of water management and reserves.
These will be outlined at a macro level in order to derive a baseline forecast of the changes shaping the future of the
region.
POLITICAL AND
GOVERNANCE TRENDS
24
20
16
12
Rapid
Autocratic Era
Decolonisation
Anocratic Era
Democratic Era
1980-2000
2000-2015
4
0
1950 1955
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
DEMOCRACIES
ANOCRACIES
Source: Center for Systemic Peace. (2014). Regional Trends in Armed Conflict
and Governance, 1946-2010: West Africa Region. Retrieved from: http://www.
systemicpeace.org/regions/regtrends.htm (accessed 24 August 2015).
16 | GIBS
1847-1957
1957-1960
1960-1980
AUTOCRACIES
Benin
1.0
Cte
dIvoire
0.2
Burkina
Faso
0.7
Cape
Verde
0.7
Ghana
0.9
Guinea
0.1
Liberia
Mali
Niger
3.8
0.6
0.7
0.6
18.1
8.9
27.3
14.7
9.0
5.7
31.8
12.5
36.0
11.6
28.7
30.7
36.8
26.9
41.0
19.3
24.4
25.1
30.9
18.3
Fairly satisfied
31.4
40.2
22.7
31.6
23.7
48.7
19.8
28.7
20.8
38.0
Very satisfied
17.8
19.9
7.4
18.3
21.5
25.1
19.2
30.0
10.2
26.8
2.8
0.1
5.2
8.0
3.9
1.1
1.0
3.1
1.5
4.7
(17.997)
(1.200)
(1.200)
(1.200)
(1.208)
(2.400)
(1.200)
(1.199)
(1.200)
(1.200)
Missing; Unknown
Dont know
(N)
Nigeria
(Country) is not a democracy
Senegal
1.6
0.5
Sierra
Leone
Togo
0.7
3.0
25.2
8.4
11.3
38.0
41.2
19.6
24.4
32.0
Fairly satisfied
27.9
46.8
31.8
14.6
Very satisfied
3.8
21.1
29.2
6.4
0.1
0.3
3.6
2.7
5.9
(2.400)
(1.200)
(1.190)
(1.200)
Missing; Unknown
Dont know
(N)
Source: Afrobarometer. (2011-2013). Afrobarometer Round 5, custom data extracted from: http://afrobarometer.org/online-data-analysis (Accessed 30 July 2015).
GIBS | 17
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
Figure 3: Violent events in the Sahel, West and North Africa (1997-2012)
18 | GIBS
MARITIME INSECURITY
The Gulf of Guinea is a 6000 km stretch of coastline that runs
from Senegal to Angola. This coastline is of great economic
import to West Africa. It is a major trading route connecting
West Africa to the rest of the world. The route is also used to
connect the Far East with the Americas and Europe via the
Atlantic a long way round, but in the past considered safer
than the Arab Gulf, Middle East and North Africa. The Gulf is
also home to significant hydrocarbon reserves: established oil
producers Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea have in recent years
been joined by Ghana, Ivory Coast, Sierra Leone, Liberia and
Senegal. In addition to oil, the region is home to significant
marine resources (Osei-Tutu, 2014).
Unfortunately, the Gulf of Guinea is also home to rising security
threats. Piracy, kidnappings and armed robbery at sea have
increased along the West Coast of Africa even as it has declined
along Somalias Gulf of Aden. In 2013, 19% of worldwide piracy
attacks took place in West Africa. Most of these (31 out of 51
in West Africa) took place in Nigeria, though pirates have also
ventured into the waters of Togo, Ghana and Ivory Coast (OseiTutu, 2014). Scholar Christian Bueger argued that the main
causes of piracy include corruption, weak law enforcement,
poverty and economic marginalisation (Ben-Ari, 2013). Piracy
has also drawn attention to wider problems related to maritime
insecurity. This includes the smuggling of oil, weapons and
narcotics, human tracking, and illegal and unregulated
fishing activities (Ben-Ari, 2013).
Nigeria has expressed strong political will to tackle these
challenges. Of note is also a recently validated regional action
plan for the ECOWAS integrated maritime strategy (EIMS) that
aims to tackle issues related to maritime security in a holistic
way. The planned maritime security architecture includes a
regional Centre of Maritime Security, based in Abidjan (BenAri, 2013).
Overall, the political and security situation in West Africa can
be described as a mix of progress and setbacks: stabilisation in
parts, coupled with rising tensions elsewhere.
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ECONOMIC TRENDS
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DIVERSIFICATION
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INFRASTRUCTURE
The African Development Banks Africa Infrastructure
Development Index (AIDI) monitors the state of infrastructure
on the continent. The AIDI includes transport, electricity, ICT,
water and sanitation. An overview of AIDI scores since 2000
shows West, East and Central Africa lagging behind Southern
and North Africa (see Figure 8).
This section will focus on transport infrastructure. For
electricity and ICT, see the technological trends section. Water
and sanitation is subsumed under the social and demographic
trends section that follows.
Ground transport is most important means of transport in
West Africa, providing access for over 70% of the regions rural
population. A special issue of the AfDB publication West Africa
Monitor focusing on infrastructure describes the West African
road network as relatively coherent and far-reaching, though
requiring maintenance in places (AfDB, 2014). It also explains
2014 (e)
2015 (p)
2016 (p)
Africa
3.5
3.9
4.5
5.0
Central Africa
4.1
5.6
5.5
5.8
East Africa
4.7
7.1
5.6
6.7
North Africa
1.6
1.7
4.5
4.4
West Afrcia
5.7
6.0
5.0
6.1
4.0
4.3
4.3
5.0
4.7
5.2
4.6
5.4
5.4
6.2
5.2
6.2
MEMORANDUM ITEMS
Figure 7
FDI inflows, 2007-2013 (Billions of dollars)
GIBS | 21
West Africa took the lead on freeing air travel on the continent
with a regional treaty in 1993. Countries in the region are
currently investing a large amount in airport development to
meet an increase in trac (AfDB, 2014).
REGIONAL INTEGRATION
22 | GIBS
Goal 1: Over the period 2001 2007, Nigeria doubled its food
production, while in Ghana, the number of people who suer
from undernourishment fell by 74% between 1991 and 2004;
Goal 4: Between 1990 and 2008, child mortality declined by
25% in Equatorial Guinea, while in Niger, absolute reductions
of more than 100 for every 1000 live births since 1990;
Goal 5: Between 1990 and 2009, there was an increase of more
than 20 percentage points in skilled birth attendance;
Goal 7: From 1990 to 2006, rural access to drinking water in
Ghana increased by 43%, to 80%. In Mali, the percentage of
the population with at least one point of access to improved
sanitation rose by 10% (from 35%-45%) between 1990 and
2006. By the same year, 93% of urban Senegalese had access to
improved water quality.
These statistics reflect very real dierences in the lives of
people. Nevertheless, high levels of poverty and inequality
indicate that there is still a long way to go.
On a global level, the MDGs have been followed by the
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). African countries have
been actively involved in formulating these goals as well as the
Source: AfDB
Source: UNDP
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, custom data acquired
via website (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/, accessed 6 August 2015).
GIBS | 23
guiding framework for the next 15 years, known as the Post2015 Development Agenda.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
Between 2010 and 2015, the annual global population growth
rate was projected to stand at 1.1%. Africas annual population
growth rate stood at 2.5% and that of West Africa at 2.7%
(United Nations, 2013). West Africa is the second fastest
growing region in Africa. By 2030, Africas population growth
rate is expected to slow to about 2%, with that of West Africa
still higher than the African average at around 2.5%. Africas
population growth rate will remain much higher than the world
average through to 2050. This means that Africans (including
West Africans) are set to constitute an increasing proportion of
the worlds population. By way of illustration, the population of
Nigeria is projected to overtake that of the US by 2045 (Boesler,
2013). Also see Figures 10 - 12.
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
URBANISATION
Since the 1950s, urban growth rates in West Africa have been
consistently higher than the regions overall population growth
rate. For instance, while the overall population growth rate for
West Africa stood at 2.7% between 2010 and 2015, the urban
population grew at over 4% (see Figure 14). This urbanisation
trend is projected to continue, albeit at a slower rate than the
1950s-1970s.
Urbanisation is the result not only of demographic growth
in cities, but also of migration. Migration to urban centres
is the result of a combination of push and pull factors. Pull
factors include the search for economic opportunities and
higher standards of living. The African Economic Outlook
(2015) makes the point that the slowdown in the urban
growth rate during the economic crisis in the 1980s and
1990s raises the question of urban attractiveness in a context
of underemployment and low job creation (AfDB/OECD/
24 | GIBS
RELIGIOUS DEMOGRAPHY
Today, over 85% of people in sub-Saharan Africa would
identify themselves as either Christian (57%) or Muslim
(29%). This is in stark contrast with the situation a century ago
when no more than a quarter of the population of sub-Saharan
Africa identified as either of the two groups (Pew Forum on
Religion and Public Life, 2010). At that time, more than threequarters (76%) identified traditional African religion as their
primary belief system. These changes are depicted in figure 16.
West Africa is the only region in sub-Saharan Africa where
Islam is in the majority. According to World Christian Database
figures (Association of Religion Data Archives), in 2010 51%
of people in West Africa identified as Muslims and 36.5% as
Christians. Traditional African belief systems account for
12.1% of the population, with adherents to other religions
(including Judaism, Hinduism, Buddhism) accounting for
less than 0.1%. Only 0.3% of people in West Africa describe
themselves as agnostic, and less than 0.1% as atheist
(Association of Religion Data Archives).
Overall, Africans hold their beliefs dear. Unlike in Europe or
the United States, very few people in sub-Saharan Africa are
unaliated with a particular faith. For instance, a 2010 survey
on religious beliefs in sub-Saharan Africa by the Pew Forum on
Religion and Public Life found that 97% of people in the region
believe in God. In fact, the survey found the sub-continent to
be among the most religious regions in the world, with the
vast majority of people (in many countries over 90%) rating
religion as playing a very important role in their lives.
A sizeable majority of Muslims in the region describe
themselves either as Sunni or as without a specific aliation
(just a Muslim) and very few as Shia. Of the Christians,
around one-third identify as Catholics and two-thirds
as Protestant (dierent denominations), Pentecostal or
NOTE: The percentages reflect the average annual rate of change of the urban population over five-year periods
Source: UNDESA (2014)
Figure 15: Urban population by sizes of cities and towns in West Africa 1950-2020
GIBS | 25
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
Figure 16: Growth of Islam & Christianity in Sub-Saharan Africa since 1900
Figure 17: Muslims and Christians in Africa. This map shows the ration of Muslims to Christians in each country and province. The north is heavily
Muslim, and the south is heavily Christian
26 | GIBS
Figure 19
Figure 20
GIBS | 27
TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS
This section will focus on energy and information and
communication technology (ICT) in West Africa.
ENERGY
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
28 | GIBS
Source: AFDB
GIBS | 29
ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
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32 | GIBS
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
This paper will follow the broad definition of civil society used
by scholar Emmanuel Gyimah-Boadi in his 1996 paper on the
topic. He defines civil society as the ensemble of intermediate
organisations that lie between the state and the household,
that are formed voluntarily by members of society to protect
and advance their interests and values, and that are separate
from the state and largely autonomous (Gyimah-Boadi, 1996).
This definition includes non-governmental organisations
(NGOs), but notably also organised labour and student groups,
professional bodies (e.g. bar, medical or university faculty)
and business associations, private voluntary organisations
(including community-based organisations and social
movements) as well as religious bodies.
Scholar Ebenezer Obadare (2014) argued that precursors
to West Africas modern civil society could be seen in the
colonial era, or specifically towards its end when networks
of associations stepped up to challenge colonial regimes
and pushed for self-determination. In his words, these
movements were led by an emergent intelligentsia that
mobilised indigenous histories and cultural repertoires to
fashion a narrative in which Africans emerged as authentic and
autonomous historical agents. Of particular interest was the
pan-regional nature of institutions such as the West African
Students Union or the West African Youth League. Most of the
elites driving these movements became leaders in the newly
independent states.
Around 40 years after independence, civil society was again
at the forefront of a big shift, this time from authoritarianism
to the advent of democracy. Though one should not discount
the influence of external forces such as the fall of the Berlin
Wall and pressure from foreign donors, the main push for
democratisation in these countries came from domestic civil
society. It started in 1989 in Benin, when the mobilisation of a
network of student bodies, community organisations, churches
and religious groups, trade unions, womens associations
and other groups resulted in the ousting of leader Mathieu
Krkou in a civilian coup. Inspired by the Eastern European
underground, these groups from across the political and
cultural spectrum were united in their opposition to autocratic
rule and economic mismanagement (Gyimah-Boadi, 1996).
Similar movements quickly spread across West Africa as well
as to other parts of the continent. In Mali, union activism as
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SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
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FINDINGS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
The future of West Africa will depend largely on three factors;
Firstly, whether good governance can overcome debilitating
corruption and state incapacity?
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
initiatives.
Finally, whether the deep fissures in the social fabric, both
socio-economically as well as socio-culturally, can be managed
and mitigates suciently to achieve the former two?
36 | GIBS
security provision.
GIBS | 37
REFERENCES
Abdulai Jalloh, G., Nelson, C., Thomas, T.S., Zougmor, R.,
& Roy-Macauley, H. (2013). West African Agriculture and
Climate Change: A comprehensive analysis. IFPRI Issue Brief.
Washington DC: International Food Policy Research Institute
(IFPRI).
AfDB. (2013). West Africa Monitor Quarterly, Issue 1: Special
focus on the financial sector. September. Abidjan: African
Development Bank Group (AfDB) West Africa Regional
Department.
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
38 | GIBS
GIBS | 39
40 | GIBS
SHAPING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR WEST AFRICA: EXPLORING THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE REGIONS PUBLIC SQUARE
Dakar
GIBS | 41