Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Agenda
Push vs. Pull Systems
Segmentation Strategies
Products
n Supply Chains
n
Handling Uncertainty
10
20
21,600 Unique
Sandwiches!
Make to Order
Make to Stock
Engineer to Order
By Jimmy John's Franchise, LLC http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e3/Jimmy_John_employees_having_fun_making_sandwiches.jpg
By U.S. Department of Agriculture (20111012-FNCS-LSC-0242) [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/06/20111012-FNCS-LSC-0242_-_Flickr_-_USDAgov.jpg
Pull
n
n
n
Prepare
Components
Final
Assembly
Sell
Product
PUSH
PUSH
PUSH
PULL
PUSH
PUSH
PULL
PULL
PUSH
PULL
PULL
PULL
One-of-a-Kind Dagwood
Key Principles
n
n
Segmentation
Purchasing / Procurement
Forecasting / Demand Planning
Inventory Planning
Inventory Control
c
c
c
Summer
Winter
Fulfillment
Center
Distribution
Center
Fulfillment
Center
c
c
By Tage Olsin (Cropped from Image:Baseball.jpg by Tage Olsin) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/bysa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ABaseball_(crop).jpg
Fulfillment
By Matt Boulton derivative work: MrPanyGoff [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via
Center
Wikimedia Commons http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AIce_hockey_puck_-_2.jpg
Ball, Braden (2012) Simulation as a Method for Determining Inventory Classifications for Allocation, MIT Masters Thesis
c
c
10
Service Level
Order Size/Volume
Demographic
Channel Segmentation
Adapted from Prashant Yadav (2005) Course Notes, Zaragoza Logistics Center.
11
Distribution of SKUs
12
Product Segmentation
Local Grocery Store
~20,000 SKUs
n Categories: Dry, Frozen, & Perishables
Analysis of Dry Goods (~8,000 SKUs)
n 1.156 M SKUs sold in 1 year
n
Mean 144
Median 72
Mode 0
Std Dev 355
Biggest Sellers?
Biggest Sales Day?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Top Sellers
EVAPORATED MILK 12 OZ
BATHROOM TISSUE
BOTTLED WATER 1 GALLON
MACN CHEESE
CANNED WHITE TUNA
13
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
144
30%
20%
10%
144
144
144
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Percent of SKUs
Uniform
Normal
Power
LogNormal
14
70%
60%
y = 1.1245x0.3784
50%
R = 0.9717
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Percent of Products
90%
100%
90%#
3% of volume is handled
by 43% of the lanes!
Percent'of'Total'Volume'(Shipments)'
80%#
70%#
60%#
50%#
40%#
30%#
20%#
10%#
0%#
0%#
10%#
20%#
30%#
40%#
50%#
60%#
Percent'of'Total'Lanes'(5'digit'postal'code'to'5'digit'postal'code)'
70%#
80%#
90%#
100%#
16
Fundamental Insight
17
ABC Analysis
18
19
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Price
2.25
2.85
1.50
0.77
4.45
6.10
3.10
1.32
12.80
24.99
7.75
0.68
0.25
3.89
7.70
6.22
0.85
0.77
1.23
4.05
Di
Annual
Demand
260
43
21
388
612
220
110
786
14
334
24
77
56
89
675
66
148
690
52
12
4,677
ciDi
Annual $
Value
$
585.00
$
122.55
$
31.50
$
298.76
$ 2,723.40
$ 1,342.00
$
341.00
$ 1,037.52
$
179.20
$ 8,346.66
$
186.00
$
52.36
$
14.00
$
346.21
$ 5,197.50
$
410.52
$
125.80
$
531.30
$
63.96
$
48.60
$ 21,983.84
Sample of 20 SKUs
Total of 4,677 units
Total ~$22k
20
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Price
24.99
7.70
4.45
6.10
1.32
2.25
0.77
6.22
3.89
3.10
0.77
7.75
12.80
0.85
2.85
1.23
0.68
4.05
1.50
0.25
Di
Annual
Demand
334
675
612
220
786
260
690
66
89
110
388
24
14
148
43
52
77
12
21
56
4,677
ciDi
Annual $
Value
$
8,347
$
5,198
$
2,723
$
1,342
$
1,038
$
585
$
531
$
411
$
346
$
341
$
299
$
186
$
179
$
126
$
123
$
64
$
52
$
49
$
32
$
14
$
21,984
ciDi
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Cum $
Pct Ann
Value
$ Value
8,347
38%
13,544
62%
16,268
74%
17,610
80%
18,647
85%
19,232
87%
19,763
90%
20,174
92%
20,520
93%
20,861
95%
21,160
96%
21,346
97%
21,525
98%
21,651
98%
21,773
99%
21,837
99%
21,890
100%
21,938
100%
21,970
100%
21,984
100%
A Items:
80% of Value
20% of SKUs
B Items:
15% of Value
30% of SKUs
C Items:
5% of Value
50% of SKUs
21
C
Items
B
Items
95
%
85
%
75
%
65
%
55
%
45
%
35
%
25
%
A
Items
15
%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
5%
Distribution By Value
Percent of SKUs
22
Demand variability
Economic value
Volatile: Sophisticated techniques; frequent reviews
Stable: Less sophisticated techniques; less frequent reviews
Unimportant: Unsophisticated techniques; infrequent reviews
Adapted from Prashant Yadav (2005) Course Notes, Zaragoza Logistics Center.
23
24
Functional
Innovative
Demand
Predictable
Unpredictable
Life Cycle
Short <1 yr
Margin
5% to 20%
20% to 60%
Variety
Low (10-20)
High
Error at Production
~10%
~40-100%
1% to 2%
10% to 40%
0%
10% - 25%
6 mon to 1 yr
1 day to 2 wks
Efficiency
Source: Fisher, M. (1997) What Is the Right Supply Chain for Your Product?, Harvard Business Review. Adapted from Sheffi (2010) ESD.260 Course Notes
By Balougador (Own work) [GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html) or CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/)], http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ACampbellsModi
By (Own work) [GPL (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/gpl.html), GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html) or CC-BY-SA-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)],
25
CTL.SC1x
- Supply Chain and Logistics Fundamentals
Lesson: Key concepts
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ASmart_phone.jpg
Manufacturing
Location
Fast / High
Cost
Intermediate
Design
Slow/Low Cost
On shore
Near shore
Off shore
(e.g., US/Europe)
International
Shipping
Air Freight
Rail/Truck
Ocean
Final Assembly
Location
On Shore
Near Shore
Off Shore
Order Fulfillment
Location
On Shore
Near Shore
Off Shore
Inventory Stocking
Model
(Factory/DC)
(Factory/DC)
(Factory/DC)
Build to Stock
Configure to Order
Build to Order
Source: Olavsun, Lee, & DeNyse (2010) A Portfolio Approach to Supply Chain Design, Supply Chain Management Review. Adapted from Sheffi (2010) ESD.260 Course Notes
26
Fast / High
Cost
Manufacturing
Location
Slow/Low Cost
On shore (e.g.,
US/Europe)
International
Shipping
Final Assembly
Location
Intermediate
Design
Rail/Truck
On Shore
Build to Stock
Source: Olavsun, Lee, & DeNyse (2010) A Portfolio Approach to Supply Chain Design, Supply Chain Management Review. Adapted from Sheffi (2010) ESD.260 Course Notes
Hp500-1" by Oguenther - Own work. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hp500-1.png#mediaviewer/File
27
Fast / High
Cost
Intermediate
Design
Manufacturing
Location
International
Shipping
Final Assembly
Location
Slow/Low Cost
Ocean
On Shore
Configure to Order
Source: Olavsun, Lee, & DeNyse (2010) A Portfolio Approach to Supply Chain Design, Supply Chain Management Review. Adapted from Sheffi (2010) ESD.260 Course Notes
"Hp-deskjet-895cxi". Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hp-deskjet-895cxi.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Hp-des
"MFHP1600" by LupisSM - Own work. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0-2.5-2.0-1.0 via Wikimedia Commons - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:MFHP1600.JPG#me
File:MFHP1600.JPG
28
Fast / High
Cost
Intermediate
Design
Manufacturing
Location
Slow/Low Cost
Off shore (e.g.,
China, Vietnam)
International
Shipping
Ocean
Final Assembly
Location
Off Shore
Build to Stock
Source: Olavsun, Lee, & DeNyse (2010) A Portfolio Approach to Supply Chain Design, Supply Chain Management Review. Adapted from Sheffi (2010) ESD.260 Course Notes
"MFHP1600" by LupisSM - Own work. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0-2.5-2.0-1.0 - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:MFHP1600.JPG#mediaviewer/File:MFHP1600
29
Handling Uncertainty
30
31
Normal Distribution
( x0 )2
( )
f x x0 =
Normal ~N(, )
2 x2
x 2
fx(x0)
Spreadsheets
NORMINV(probability,,) =+kx
NORMDIST(x,,,1) =P[x<+kx]
Area =
P[x<+kx]
Area =
P[x+kx]
=1-P[x<+kx]
NORMSINV(probability) =k
NORMSDIST(k) =P[u<k]
fu(u0)
( )
f u u0 =
Area =
P[u<k]
n
n
2
3
68.3%
95.5%
99.7%
0
Lesson: Key concepts
x02
2
Area =
P[uk]=
=1-P[u<k]
Confidence Intervals
n
x0
+kx
u0
32
Poisson Distribution
Poisson ~P()
n
n
In
n
n
F(x0) = POISSON(x0,,1)
F[x0 ] = Prob !" x x0 #$ =
x!
x=0
30%
2.2
25%
Probability
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Random Variable
CTL.SC1x - Supply Chain and Logistics Fundamentals
33
34
Segmentation Strategies
n
n
Handling Uncertainty
n
n
Normal Distribution
Poisson Distribution
35
"Jack Russell tilting her head" by Writ Keeper - Own work. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike
3.0 http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Jack_Russell_tilting_her_head.jpg
caplice@mit.edu