Predictive analytics in Healthcare

Predictive analytics (PA) uses technology and statistical methods to search through massive
amounts of information, analyzing it to predict outcomes for individual patients. That
information can include data from past treatment outcomes as well as the latest medical
research published in peer-reviewed journals and databases.
In medicine, predictions can range from responses to medications to hospital readmission rates.
Examples are predicting infections from methods of suturing, determining the likelihood of
disease, helping a physician with a diagnosis, and even predicting future wellness.
Prediction modelling uses techniques such as artificial intelligence to create a prediction profile
(algorithm) from past individuals. Experts use predictive analysis in health care primarily to
determine which patients are at risk of developing certain conditions, like diabetes, asthma,
heart disease, and other lifetime illnesses. Additionally, sophisticated clinical decision support
systems incorporate predictive analytics to support medical decision making at the point of
care.
Our programmes built on various predictive models shall follow standards of HL 7. Health
Level-7 or HL7 refers to a set of international standards for transfer of clinical and
administrative data between software applications used by various healthcare providers. These
standards focus on the application layer, which is "layer 7" in the OSI model. The HL7 standards
are produced by the Health Level Seven International, an international standards organization,
and are adopted by other standards issuing bodies such as American National Standards
Institute and International Organization for Standardization. (Source : Wikipedia)
Through the following predictive model, Archeron shall be aiming at envisaging new and
innovated technology using Artificial Intelligence.
1. Linear Regression Model
The focus lies on establishing a mathematical equation as a model to represent the interactions
between the different variables in consideration. The following studies have been undertaken in
the healthcare sector using the Linear Regression Model:
Analyze medical expenditure of individuals aged 65 years and older who qualify for health
care under the Medicare program

 Building a model that predicts an individuals cost to an insurer and determining future
healthcare costs using prior costs, demographics
Using the Linear Regression Model we will be innovating programme that will assess the
heartbeat and chest movement and using neural net KNN classifier video camera the chest
movement and the heart beat movement will be visualized to the healthcare practitioners for
better monitoring and ailing.
2. Discrete Choice Model
Discrete choice models allow researchers to analyze and predict how people's choices are
influenced by their personal characteristics and by the alternatives available to them. The
following studies have been undertaken in the healthcare sector using the Discrete Choice
Model:
Areas as transport modelling, examining consumer responsiveness to advertising
Population preference over different screening strategies for cancer screening programmes
Using the Discrete Choice Model, we will be innovating a User Choice Bucket wherein User
Behaviour Pattern will be recorded through data sets from Hospitals and respective analytical
tools shall be programmed. The results shall be viewed in graphics which will help the
healthcare clinics serve the populous in a more efficient faishon.
3. Log model
Logistic regression is typically applied to binary outcome variables for which the product
binomial probability distribution can be assumed. The following studies have been undertaken
in the healthcare sector using the Log Model:
Quantal bioassay experiments in which the model specifies a dose-response relationship and
epidemiologic studies concerned with certain health measures such as the proportion of people
seeking medical care.
A Logistic Regression Model to Predict High Risk Patients to Fail in Tuberculosis Treatment
Course Completion.
Using the Log Model, we will be innovating a programme that will assess the probability of ReAdmission of a patient after treatment.
4. Multinominal Regression

This model deals with one nominal/ordinal response variable that has more than two
categories, whether nominal or ordinal variable. The following studies have been undertaken in
the healthcare sector using the Multinomial Regression:
The proposed method is applied to a study on risk factors for heart attack and stroke in 2009
U.S. nationwide Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data.
A Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis to Study the Influence of Residence And SocioEconomic Status On Breast Cancer Incidences.
Using the Multinominal Regression we will be innovating a programme that will assess the
probability of BP going too high or too low, Heart attacks and Stroke through EEG. This
predictive model shall also be used in establishing correlation within user profiles in hospital so
as to segregating the user choice as per socio economic parameters. Each segregated category
will be curtained with constants for heart attack probability. For instance one of the segregated
category will be Urban male with 50+ age and further sub categorized by BMI height to check
user probability of heart attack.
5. Probit Regression
We explore how alternative estimation models perform in our dataset, concluding that, rather
than an ordered probit model, a grouped data regression approach turns out to be empirically
more adequate. The following study has been undertaken in the healthcare sector using the
Probit Regression Model:
To estimate a model in which socio-economic characteristics, along with health-related
attitudes and behaviour predict levels of drinking
Using Probit Regression model we will be innovating a programme that will manage the
Hospital patient files and assess Behaviour models along with categorizing them as a product of
probability of future negative behaviour.
6. Time series model
A time series is a sequence of observations made over time. The approach usually involves
constructing a time series of population-level rates for a particular quality improvement focus.
The following studies have been undertaken in the healthcare sector using the Time Series
Model:
Comparing one time period to another time period for example, evaluating the impact of a
smoking cessation programme by comparing smoking rates before and after the event

 Comparing one geographical area or population to another

Making future projections for example to aid the planning of healthcare services by
estimating likely resource requirements
Forecasting individual hospital waiting lists, as well as treatments/surgery specific waiting
lists
Using Time Series Model we will be innovating a program that will monitor a patient past
healing from heart attack by assessing heart beats through bio sensor data (HomeSkan is a
product of a leading Healthcare equipment Manufacturing firm from India, Skanray. This
product shall be collaborated with this technology.)
Through this model, a time series band boundary shall be programmed for each user with the
past history of BP. So that if any day the BP of a patient is outside 15% of past 6 months data, an
auto red flag will be highlighted to the doctor.
This model shall also be utilized to predict hospital stay of admitted patients and 2nd time heart
attack probability for patients.
7. Survival or Duration Analysis
It is a statistical methods for analyzing longitudinal data on the occurrence of events. The
following study has been undertaken in the healthcare sector using the Survival or Duration
Analysis Model:
To assess the relationship of co-variables to time-to-event, such as: does weight, insulin
resistance, or cholesterol influence survival time of patients
Estimate time-to-event for a group of individuals, such as time until second heart-attack for a
group of patients
Using Survival or Duration Analysis we will be innovating a programme that manages the data
input and scans frequency of doctor home visit and then predicts force a week or month or biweekly visit for a particular patient.
8. Decision Trees
Decision analysis utilizes mathematical models to quantitatively compare multiple decisions
accounting for both the monetary cost and the effect on quality of life. The strength of decision
analysis is that the process offers an explicit and systematic approach to decision making based

on the premise of rationality. The following study has been undertaken in the healthcare sector
using the Decision Tree Model:
Should a health care worker who has a needle stick injury be given HIV prophylaxis treatment
Using the Decision Tree Model we will be innovating a programme to predict healthcare cost
based on past admission data for the patients.
9. Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines
MARS is a nonparametric regression procedure that makes no assumption about the underlying
functional relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Instead, MARS
constructs this relation from a set of coefficients and basic functions that are entirely "driven"
from the regression data. The following studies have been undertaken in the healthcare sector
using the MARS Model:
Estimate number of accidents caused by various external factors like drinking and driving,
poor weather conditions and bad condition of roads
Predict healthcare costs for a patient by categories (ex: total costs, pharmacy cost etc.) with
indicating presence of certain health conditions
Using MARS we will be innovating a programme that will form a disease cluster identification
based on HL 7 and ISD 10. This model along with KNN shall also address the Socio Eco Class
and Geography based
10. MLT
Machine learning techniques emulate human cognition and learn from training examples to
predict future events. The following studies have been undertaken in the healthcare sector
using the MLT Model:
Predicting Hospital Readmissions
Predicting Strokes, Seizures and Identifying Heart Failure
Predicting Emergency Room Wait Times
Automating Employee Access Control
Using the MLT Model we will be innovating a programme which will predict future events based
on past data of medical history. These predictions will envisage cardiac events and with the

Skanray technology it will be very useful for medical practitioners to give treatment
accordingly.
11. Neural Network
Neural networks are nonlinear sophisticated modeling techniques that are able to model
complex functions. They can be applied to problems of prediction, classification or control in a
wide spectrum of fields. The following studies have been undertaken in the healthcare sector
using the Neural Network Model:
Identify signs of precancerous and cancerous changes in body
Synthesizing, optimising and analysing neural networks to an Electrocardiogram (ECG)
Patient Monitoring task
Predicts a drug's mechanism of action from its pattern of activity in the body
Enable health care providers to individualize a care management plan based on the possibility
of a patient not completing quarterly visits.
Diagnose diabetes
Diagnose of malignancy of Thyroid Nodules
Using both MLT and Neural Net models of predictive analysis we will be devising a
recommendation engine like our proprietary CapitaWorld.
12. Radial Based
A radial basis function (RBF) is a function which has built into it a distance criterion with
respect to a centre which can be used very efficiently for interpolation and for smoothing of
data. The following study has been undertaken in the healthcare sector using the Decision Tree
Model:
Arrhythmia Detection and Classification
Using the Radial Based Model we will be innovating a programme that will perform cluster
analysis on medical historical data, filter it and then compare the results with KNN and Filter B
results so as to provide meaningful insights about the individual patient.
13. SVM

Support Vector Machines (SVM) are used to detect and exploit complex patterns in data by
clustering, classifying and ranking the data. They are learning machines that are used to
perform binary classifications and regression estimations. The following studies have been
undertaken in the healthcare sector using the SVM Model:
Prediction of common diseases: the case of diabetes and pre-diabetes
Classify persons with and without common diseases
Classify persons for Automatic Medical Diagnosis
Prediction of Medication Adherence in Heart Failure Patients
Identification of Breast Cancer
Using the SVM Model we will be classifying the patients into buckets of category that will
support the hospitals maintain data more efficiently
14. Naive Bayer
Nave Bayes based on Bayes conditional probability rule is used for performing classification
tasks. It is best employed when faced with the problem of curse of dimensionality i.e. when the
number of predictors is very high. The following studies have been undertaken in the healthcare
sector using the Naive Bayer Model:
Prediction System for Heart Disease
Medical Data Classification
Prediction of Swine Flu Disease
Prediction of Different Dermatological Conditions
Web Based Health Care Detection
Decision Support in Heart Disease Prediction System
Analysing time to time event data
Using the Naive Bayes Model we will be innovating a programme that shall predict heart attack
and web based detection of an individuals health. So for instance the heart rate of a stock
market trader shall be analyzed through an automated faishon and recorded when the stock
market prices are in recession.

15. KNN Classifier

The nearest neighbour algorithm (KNN) belongs to the class of pattern recognition statistical
methods. The method does not impose a priori any assumptions about the distribution from
which the modeling sample is drawn. It involves a training set with both positive and negative
values. A new sample is classified by calculating the distance to the nearest neighbouring
training case. The sign of that point will determine the classification of the sample. The
following studies have been undertaken in the healthcare sector using the KNN Classifier Model:
Designing an automatic, data-driven, machine-learning algorithm in clinical decision making
Diagnosing Heart Disease Patients
Medical Data Mining and assessing for insights
Diagnosing Heart Disease Patients
Using KNN Model we will be innovating a programme that will cluster diseases and perform
image clean up.
16. Group method of data handling
The use of such self-organizing networks leads to successful application in a broad range of
areas. The following study has been undertaken in the healthcare sector using the Group
method of data handling Model:
Construct gene expressions program
Using Group method of data handling Model we will be innovating a programme that shall
calculate and assess financial distress production.
17. Random forests
Random forests is a notion of the general technique of random decision forests that are an
ensemble learning method for classification, regression and other tasks, that operate by
constructing a multitude of decision trees at training time and outputting the class that is the
mode of the classes (classification) or mean prediction (regression) of the individual trees.
Random decision forests correct for decision trees' habit of over fitting to their training set. The
following studies have been undertaken in the healthcare sector using the Random Forests
Model:

 Utilizing Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) dataset for predicting disease risk of
individuals based on their medical diagnosis history
Diabetic Retinopathy Classification Analyses
Detecting cardiac arrhythmias using ECG data
Customer Retention Predictive Modeling for HealthCare Insurance Industry
Using the Random Forests model we will innovating a programme that will assist insurance
companies, Hospitals and individual patients estimate the costing of the treatment which
includes each and every cost in the long run.
18. CART
CART presents a sophisticated snapshot of the relationship of variables in the data and can be
used as a first step in constructing an informative model or a final visualization of important
associations. The following study has been undertaken in the healthcare sector using the CART
Model:
Predict pulmonary tuberculosis in hospitalized patients
Using the CART Model, we will be innovating a programme that will support through predicting
the risk of heart attack.
Final Word
Our Healthcare Analytics programmes built on various predictive models shall follow standards
of HL 7. Health Level-7 or HL7 refers to a set of international standards for transfer of clinical
and administrative data between software applications used by various healthcare providers.
The programmes promise of supporting a wide range of medical and healthcare functions,
including among others clinical decision support, disease surveillance, and population health
management.
Potential benefits of Healthcare Analytics include detecting diseases at earlier stages when they
can be treated more easily and effectively; managing specific individual and population health
and detecting health care fraud more quickly and efficiently. All of the stakeholders with
Healthcare will benefit with the programmes:

Predictive analytics can provide employers and hospitals with predictions

concerning insurance product costs

Pharmaceutical companies can use predictive analytics to best meet the needs of
the public for medications.

Patients have the potential benefit of better outcomes due to predictive

analytics.

Predictive analytics provides physicians with answers they are seeking for
individual patients.

Predictive analytics will help preventive medicine and public health.

Predictive analytics increase the accuracy of diagnoses.