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Summary of Findings
Figures 1 and 2 and Tables 1 and 2 distill these results:
Since 2006, the national state imprisonment rate has dropped by 7 percent. 28 states reduced
their prison populations. Of those, every state but one (South Dakota) also saw crime drop.
In fact, many states with the most dramatic crime drops also shrank their incarcerated
populations. Large states, such as California (27 percent), New York (18 percent), and Texas
(15 percent) experienced some of the most significant reductions in incarceration while also
experiencing crime drops of over 15 percent each.
Southern states in particular, such as Mississippi (10 percent) and South Carolina (18
percent) have made significant strides in cutting prison populations.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Table 1: Prison Population & Rates per 100,000 Residents by State (2006-2014)
State
Massachusetts
Maine
Rhode Island
Minnesota
North Dakota
New Hampshire
Utah
Vermont
New Jersey
Washington
Hawaii
New York
Iowa
Nebraska
Kansas
Connecticut
New Mexico
Maryland
California
North Carolina
Montana
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Alaska
Illinois
Oregon
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Wyoming
South Dakota
South Carolina
Nevada
Michigan
Tennessee
Delaware
Indiana
Ohio
Virginia
Kentucky
Idaho
Florida
Georgia
Missouri
Texas
Arizona
Mississippi
Arkansas
Alabama
Oklahoma
Louisiana
2006 Rate
146
152
203
177
214
209
245
264
317
274
343
325
298
239
320
394
327
398
483
363
377
316
406
460
355
372
473
353
412
425
527
509
512
423
492
413
428
480
462
486
513
566
514
694
542
663
487
599
668
858
2014 Rate
Change in Rate
141
153
178
195
217
220
239
241
242
256
258
265
283
284
322
326
329
347
351
360
361
372
372
374
375
379
385
394
408
423
431
437
438
439
443
444
444
451
475
492
517
520
527
588
597
597
601
634
703
818
-3%
1%
-12%
10%
1%
5%
-2%
-9%
-24%
-7%
-25%
-18%
-5%
19%
1%
-17%
1%
-13%
-27%
-1%
-4%
18%
-8%
-19%
6%
2%
-19%
12%
-1%
0%
-18%
-14%
-14%
4%
-10%
8%
4%
-6%
3%
1%
1%
-8%
3%
-15%
10%
-10%
23%
6%
5%
-5%
2006
Prisoners
9,472
1,997
2,149
9,108
1,363
2,737
6,340
1,634
27,371
17,483
4,373
62,974
8,838
4,204
8,816
13,746
6,361
22,316
173,942
32,219
3,563
5,719
22,618
3,116
45,106
13,667
22,481
43,998
2,114
3,350
22,861
12,691
51,577
25,745
4,195
26,055
49,166
36,688
19,514
7,124
92,874
52,781
30,146
162,193
33,557
19,219
13,713
27,526
23,889
36,376
2014
Prisoners
9,486
2,030
1,880
10,637
1,603
2,915
7,024
1,508
21,590
18,052
3,663
52,399
8,798
5,347
9,365
11,735
6,860
20,733
136,088
35,769
3,699
6,881
21,404
2,754
48,278
15,060
20,646
50,423
2,383
3,605
20,830
12,415
43,359
28,769
4,141
29,261
51,519
37,544
20,969
8,039
102,870
52,485
31,938
158,589
40,175
17,876
17,819
30,766
27,261
38,022
Change in # of
Prisoners
14
33
-269
1,529
240
178
684
-126
-5,781
569
-710
-10,575
-40
1,143
549
-2,011
499
-1,583
-37,854
3,550
136
1,162
-1,214
-362
3,172
1,393
-1,835
6,425
269
255
-2,031
-276
-8,218
3,024
-54
3,206
2,353
856
1455
915
9,996
-296
1,792
-3,604
6,618
-1,343
4,106
3,240
3,372
1,646
Source: U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau. (Chart sorted by 2014 imprisonment rate.)8
4
Vermont
Maine
New Hampshire
Wyoming
Utah
Virginia
Idaho
Kentucky
Rhode Island
Minnesota
Oregon
Connecticut
North Dakota
Hawaii
Nebraska
Iowa
Ohio
Mississippi
New Jersey
Washington
Colorado
Wisconsin
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia
Pennsylvania
Kansas
North Carolina
Indiana
Illinois
Georgia
Arizona
New York
Massachusetts
Oklahoma
Texas
Michigan
California
Alabama
Missouri
Maryland
Arkansas
Delaware
South Carolina
Louisiana
Florida
New Mexico
Alaska
Tennessee
Nevada
Violent Crime
Rate (2006)
117.3
90.2
113.3
224.5
191.4
259.8
208.3
238.9
203.4
278.6
251.7
279.9
159.5
253.2
261.3
256.5
319.9
276.1
336.4
305.7
350.0
263.9
340.5
205.4
259.0
413.3
386.4
447.0
292.9
509.8
454.8
502.8
418.8
473.0
458.7
481.4
511.4
508.1
389.4
515.7
657.7
505.6
652.2
728.7
684.2
680.6
599.8
611.6
726.1
705.1
Violent Crime
Rate (2014)
81.7
91.3
151.3
165.7
166.2
168.5
174.9
179.0
185.0
192.5
195.6
215.2
216.6
227.9
234.5
237.2
241.4
243.1
246.9
247.0
252.3
261.2
270.8
271.5
274.7
284.2
300.0
305.2
332.2
337.7
347.1
349.7
354.3
359.0
360.2
363.6
364.0
366.4
386.1
403.7
419.0
420.7
447.8
454.9
485.2
497.4
526.7
531.1
569.8
587.8
Percent
Change
-30%
1%
34%
-26%
-13%
-35%
-16%
-25%
-9%
-31%
-22%
-23%
36%
-10%
-10%
-8%
-25%
-12%
-27%
-19%
-28%
-1%
-20%
32%
6%
-31%
-22%
-32%
13%
-34%
-24%
-30%
-15%
-24%
-21%
-24%
-29%
-28%
-1%
-22%
-36%
-17%
-31%
-38%
-29%
-27%
-12%
-13%
-22%
-17%
Crime Rate
(2006)
Source: F.B.I. Uniform Crime Reports. (Chart sorted by 2014 violent crime.) 9
5
2508.7
2637.0
2095.2
3211.0
3703.9
2749.1
2604.2
2840.6
2818.0
3361.1
3976.8
2866.0
2260.4
4473.1
3621.0
3080.1
4008.1
3466.4
2615.2
4815.8
3788.4
3084.9
3197.2
1971.8
2895.3
2861.6
4158.4
4563.2
3742.4
3529.5
4328.3
5277.0
2483.3
2864.4
4083.2
4564.5
3736.5
3689.9
4330.4
4349.7
4138.7
4491.1
4128.5
5003.2
4765.0
4666.9
4488.1
4189.7
4863.7
4805.9
Crime Rate
(2014)
1606.1
2077.8
2114.0
2130.4
3044.7
2098.8
2029.7
2425.9
2358.6
2490.0
3074.7
2135.6
2326.9
3277.9
2758.0
2330.9
3040.5
3164.3
1981.0
3953.1
2782.5
2349.6
2743.7
2135.3
2309.4
2215.9
3035.2
3178.2
2981.6
2413.6
3628.3
3547.2
2072.5
2216.1
3350.9
3383.0
2407.9
2807.5
3563.7
3310.2
2926.5
3758.7
3429.8
3915.2
3944.0
3912.9
4069.0
3291.2
3630.3
3213.2
Percent
Change
-36%
-21%
1%
-34%
-18%
-24%
-22%
-15%
-16%
-26%
-23%
-25%
3%
-27%
-24%
-24%
-24%
-9%
-24%
-18%
-27%
-24%
-14%
8%
-20%
-23%
-27%
-30%
-20%
-32%
-16%
-33%
-17%
-23%
-18%
-26%
-36%
-24%
-18%
-24%
-29%
-16%
-17%
-22%
-17%
-16%
-9%
-21%
-25%
-33%
State Snapshots
Figure 3 shows examples of states that lowered both imprisonment and crime:
States that lowered both crime and imprisonment rates were politically and geographically
diverse. They include states in the Northeast (N.Y., N.J.), West (Calif., Colo.), and South
(S.C., Texas).
South Carolina saw a 38 percent drop in violent crime, the largest in the nation. It also saw a
substantial 18 percent drop in its prison population, as shown in Table 1. In 2010, South
Carolina enacted new laws to eliminate some mandatory minimum sentences, change lowerlevel property crimes from felonies to misdemeanors, and improve their parole and
probation release process. 10 These changes saved the state $18 million over four years, while
crime fell by 22 percent in the same time span. 11
New Jersey has also been a leader on criminal justice reform. Not only has the state lowered
incarceration and crime by 24 percent each, but it also recently passed a bill enacting bail
reform. 12 New Jersey safely downsized its prison population by enhancing the administrative
efficiency of its parole process and increasing flexibility in the sentencing of low-level drug
offenders. 13
22 states increased their prison population, and saw crime drop by an average of 20 percent.
Two states separated by many miles, North Dakota and New Hampshire, increased
imprisonment and saw increases in overall crime. These two states also had the largest
increases in violent crime.
Arkansas had the largest imprisonment rate increase in the nation, ballooning by over 20
percent to almost 18,000 prisoners. Its crime rate fell, but at a much slower pace than most
of the rest of the nation (40 states).
Pennsylvanias imprisonment rate grew by 13 percent until 2011. After 2011, it decreased by
2 percent, likely because of legislation passed in 2012 that mandated alternatives to
incarceration for some misdemeanors and increased supervision and resources to those
leaving prison. 14
500
0
3000
200
Crime Rate
Incarceration Rate
100
Crime Rate
6000
3000
300
2500
150
1000
500
350
200
1500
100
Crime Rate
50
Incarceration Rate
South Carolina
1500
500
4000
4000
400
3000
300
100
New York
250
200
150
Crime Rate
Incarceration Rate
Texas
50
800
700
600
500
400
2000
300
Crime Rate
Incarceration Rate
Source: U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, F.B.I. Uniform Crime Reports, and U.S. Census Bureau. 15
7
100
3000
1000
350
300
5000
Crime Rate
Incarceration Rate
1000
5000
1000
100
Incarceration Rate
1500
500
200
Crime Rate
2000
600
2000
200
250
2000
2000
500
Crime Rate
Crime Rate
2500
300
2500
1000
New Jersey
3000
Imprisonment Rate
1500
400
Imprisonment Rate
300
500
200
100
0
Imprisonment Rate
2000
Colorado
3500
Crime Rate
400
2500
1000
500
4000
Imprisonment Rate
Crime Rate
3000
4500
Crime Rate
3500
600
Imprisonment Rate
California
Imprisonment Rate
4000
2500
500
400
2000
300
Crime Rate
200
Incarceration Rate
100
North Dakota
2500
150
1500
1000
500
0
100
Crime Rate
50
150
1500
100
1000
500
Crime Rate
Pennsylvania
350
300
2000
250
1500
200
150
1000
Crime Rate
Incarceration Rate
Source: U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, F.B.I. Uniform Crime Reports, and U.S. Census Bureau. 16
450
400
2500
500
Incarceration Rate
50
Incarceration Rate
3000
200
2000
2000
3500
250
250
200
Crime Rate
3000
New Hampshire
Incarceratoin Rate
600
3000
1000
Crime Rate
3000
Imprisonment Rate
Crime Rate
4000
700
100
50
0
Imprisonment Rate
Arkansas
Incarceratioin Rate
Crime Rate
5000
Imprisonment rates remain high throughout the country. Even states with moderate
imprisonment rates for the United States (between 350-500 per 100,000 people) are high
compared to other western democracies. 17
An increase in imprisonment does not always correlate to a decrease in crime, or vice versa.
For example, Maine held imprisonment constant, but still has the second lowest
imprisonment rate in the nation. On the other hand, Lousiana reduced its use of
imprisonment by five percent, but still has the dubious distintion of having the highest
imprisonment rate in the country. (See Table 1 for additional details.)
Generally, the Northeast is home to the countrys lowest imprisonment rates, while the
South has the highest. There are of course outliers. For example, New Mexico has a low
imprisonment rate and is wedged between Texas and Arizona, which have very high
incarceration rates.
10
Conclusion
The United States is taking slow measures to reduce its prison population, without sacrificing the
public safety gains of the last decades. However, as is always the case, the story varies from state to
state. Some states have made marked progess to cut their prison populations, while others continue
to overrely on incarceration.
11
ENDNOTES
1
ROY WALMSLEY, INSTITUTE FOR CRIMINAL POLICY RESEARCH, WORLD PRISON BRIEF (2016), available at
http://www.prisonstudies.org/sites/default/files/resources/downloads/world_prison_population_list_11th_edition.pd
f
2 See NICOLE FORTIER AND INIMAI CHETTIAR, SUCCESS-ORIENTED FUNDING: REFORMING FEDERAL CRIMINAL
JUSTICE GRANTS, 3 (2014), available at https://www.brennancenter.org/publication/success-oriented-funding-reformingfederal-criminal-justice-grants.
3 BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS, RECIDIVISM OF PRISONERS RELEASED IN 30 STATES IN 2005: PATTERNS FROM 2005
TO 2010, 14, (2014), available at http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rprts05p0510.pdf.
4 Incarceration rates are equal to the number of prisoners in each state sentenced to at least one year in prison divided by
the number of residents (in hundreds of thousands). Six states (AL, CT, DE, HI, RI, and VT) do not distinguish
between jail and prison inmates in their reports of correctional populations. To adjust, imprisonment rates reflect only
those who were sentenced to prison for a year or more.
5 See U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, POPULATION ESTIMATES, HISTORICAL DATA: 2000S (2013), available at
https://www.census.gov/popest/data/historical/2000s/index.html; See U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, POPULATION ESTIMATES,
STATE TOTALS: VINTAGE 2014 (2015), available at https://www.census.gov/popest/data/state/totals/2014/ (showing
2014 population data); BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS, CORRECTIONS STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TOOL (CSAT)
PRISONERS, available at http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=nps.
6
See note 2.
7 See note 2.
8 See note 2.
9 FED. BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, UNIFORM CRIME REPORTING STATISTICS, STATE-BY-STATE AND NATIONAL CRIME
ESTIMATES BY YEAR(S), http://www.ucrdatatool.gov/Search/Crime/State/StatebyState.cfm (providing state-by-state
data through 2012); FED. BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, UNIFORM CRIME REPORTING STATISTICS, CRIME IN THE
UNITED STATES 2013 (2014), available at https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-theu.s.-2013; FED. BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION, UNIFORM CRIME REPORTING STATISTICS, CRIME IN THE UNITED STATES
2014 (2015), available at https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014.
Crime rates do not include rape figures because the definition is changed between 2006 and 2014.
10See PEW CTR. ON THE STATES, ISSUE BRIEF: SOUTH CAROLINAS PUBLIC SAFETY REFORM: LEGISLATION ENACTS
RESEARCH-BASED STRATEGIES TO CUT PRISON GROWTH AND COSTS (2010), available at
http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/legacy/uploadedfiles/wwwpewtrustsorg/reports/sentencing_and_corrections/psp
psouthcarolinabriefpdf.pdf
11 BUREAU OF JUSTICE ASSISTANCE, JUSTICE REINVESTMENT INITIATIVE: SOUTH CAROLINA (2015),
https://www.bja.gov/programs/justicereinvestment/south_carolina.html.
12 DRUG POLICY ALLIANCE, WINNING BAIL REFORM IN NEW JERSEY, http://www.drugpolicy.org/aboutus/departments-and-state-offices/new-jersey/new-solutions-campaign/bail-reform/winning-bail-re.
13 Drug Law Changes, N.Y. State Div. of Crim. Justice Servs., http://www.criminaljustice.ny.gov/drug-law-reform/.
14 See JUSTICE CENTER THE COUNCIL ON STATE GOVERNMENTS, JUSTICE REINVESTMENT IN PENNSYLVANIA: A
COMPREHENSIVE PUBLIC SAFETY PLAN FOR THE COMMONWEALTH 2-3 (2012), available at
https://csgjusticecenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/JR_PA_Policy_Framework.pdf.
15 See notes 2, 8.
16 See notes 2, 8.
17 See note 1.
18 See note 2.
12