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Statistics 6380
2014
SPECIFICATION
This specification will be published annually on the AQA Website (www.aqa.org.uk). If there are any changes to
the specification centres will be notified in print as well as on the Website. The version on the Website is the
definitive version of the specification.
The Assessment and Qualifications Alliance (AQA) is a company limited by guarantee registered in England and Wales 3644723 and a registered charity number 1073334. Registered address
AQA, Devas Street, Manchester, M15 6EX.
Contents
Background Information
1
Specification at a Glance
Scheme of Assessment
4
Introduction
Aims
10
Assessment Objectives
10
11
12
Subject Content
9
14
10
AS Module - Statistics 1
15
11
AS Module - Statistics 2
18
12
AS Module - Statistics 3
20
13
A2 Module - Statistics 4
22
14
A2 Module - Statistics 5
24
15
A2 Module - Statistics 6
26
17
28
30
Centre-assessed Component
18
31
19
32
20
Assessment Criteria
32
21
35
22
Standardisation
36
23
Administrative Procedures
37
24
Moderation
38
39
Appendices
A
Grade Descriptions
40
Statistical Notation
42
Record Forms
44
44
45
Background Information
1
1.1
1.2
Specification at a Glance
Statistics
AS Examination 5381
Unit Statistics 1A (SS1A)
or
Advanced Subsidiary
Award
5381
+
A2 Examination 6381
1 hours
1 hours
Advanced Award
6381
3
3.1
June
Availability of
Units
AS
A2
Availability of
Qualification
AS
A Level
All
All
3.2
Sequencing of Modules
3.3
Entry Codes
Level
With or
without
coursework
Entry code
Statistics 1A
AS
with
SS1A
Statistics 1B
AS
without
SS1B
Statistics 2
AS
without
SS02
Statistics 3
AS
without
SS03
Statistics 4
A2
without
SS04
Statistics 5
A2
without
SS05
Statistics 6
A2
without
SS06
The Subject Code for entry to the Statistics AS award is 5381.
The Subject Code for entry to the Statistics Advanced Level award is
6381.
3.4
3.5
Classification codes
3.6
Private Candidates
3.7
Language of Examinations
3.9
Use of Calculators
Scheme of Assessment
4
Introduction
AQA offers a GCE specification in Statistics, and a separate GCE
specification in Mathematics. This specification, which is in Statistics,
offers AS and A Level qualifications. Qualifications at AS and
A Level standard in Mathematics, Pure Mathematics and Further
Mathematics are available in the Mathematics specification.
The AS and A Level Statistics qualifications in this specification may
appeal to the student who wishes to pursue the study of a numerate
post-16 subject, but does not want to study Pure Mathematics.
The emphasis is on using and applying statistics. Appropriate
interpretation of contexts and the outcomes of statistical procedures
will be required.
The content of the AS specification has been selected to include
statistical knowledge, skills and techniques which are needed for the
study of other subjects, such as Biology, Economics, Geography,
Psychology and Business Studies.
The A2 specification is designed to give an understanding of the
calculation of statistical measures, as well as their application and
interpretation, without requiring knowledge of Pure Mathematics
beyond GCSE. For example, no calculus techniques are required and
questions which are essentially algebraic problems will not be set.
The AS and A Level qualifications based on this specification are a
recognised part of the National Qualifications Framework. As such,
AS and A Level provide progression from Key Stage 4, through post16 studies and form the basis of entry to higher education or
employment.
This GCE specification complies with:
the Common Criteria;
the GCSE, GCE, Principal Learning and Project
Code of Practice April 2013;
the GCE Advanced Subsidiary and Advanced Level
Qualification-Specific Criteria.
Where appropriate, reference has also been made to the requirements
of the QCA Subject Criteria for Mathematics.
Prior level of attainment
Aims
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Assessment Objectives
The Assessment Objectives (AOs) are common to both AS and
A Level. The schemes of assessment will assess candidates ability to:
AO1 recall, select and use their knowledge of statistical facts, concepts,
techniques and methods of data collection in a variety of contexts;
AO2 construct rigorous statistical arguments through use of precise
statements or hypotheses, logical deduction and inference, including
the construction of extended arguments for the handling of
substantial problems presented in unstructured form;
AO3 recall, select and use their knowledge of statistical models to represent
situations in the real world; recognise and understand given
representations involving statistical models; present and interpret
results from such models in terms of the original situation, including
discussion of the assumptions made and refinement of such models;
10
Scheme of Assessment -
7.1
Unit SS1A
Written Paper
+ Coursework
1 hours
60 marks
The written paper comprises 25% of the AS marks. All questions are
compulsory. A graphics calculator may be used. The coursework
comprises 81/3% of the AS marks. One task is required.
Unit SS1B
Written Paper
1 hours
75 marks
Written Paper
1 hours
75 marks
Written Paper
1 hours
75 marks
11
7.2
Weighting of Assessment
Objectives for AS Statistics
Assessment Objectives
AO1
6 10
6 10
8 12
8 12
22 34
AO2
6 10
6 10
4 8
4 8
14 26
AO3
8 14
8 14
4 10
4 10
16 34
AO4
2 4
2 4
2 4
2 4
6 12
AO5
3 5
3 5
5 9
5 9
13 23
331/3
331/3
331/3
331/3
100
Candidates marks for each assessment unit are scaled to achieve the correct weightings.
Scheme of Assessment -
AS Assessment Units
Statistics
Unit SS1A
Written Paper
+ Coursework
1 hours
60 marks
Written Paper
1 hours
75 marks
Written Paper
1 hours
75 marks
Written Paper
1 hours
75 marks
12
8.2
A2 Assessment Units
Statistics
Unit SS04
Written Paper
1 hours
75 marks
Written Paper
1 hours
75 marks
All questions are compulsory. A graphics calculator may be used.
Unit SS06
Written Paper
1 hours
75 marks
All questions are compulsory. A graphics calculator may be used.
8.3
Synoptic Assessment
The GCE Advanced Subsidiary and Advanced Level QualificationSpecific Criteria state that A Level specifications must include
synoptic assessment representing at least 20% of the total A Level
marks. Synoptic assessment in Statistics addresses candidates
understanding of the connections between different elements of the
subject. It involves the explicit drawing together of knowledge,
understanding and skills learned in different parts of the A level
course, focusing on the use and application of methods developed at
earlier stages of the course to the solution of problems. Making and
understanding connections in this way is intrinsic to learning
Statistics.
Synoptic assessment is part of the assessment in the following units in
A Level Statistics: Statistics 4, Statistics 5, Statistics 6. There is no
restriction on when synoptic units may be taken.
8.4
Weighting of Assessment
Objectives for A Level
Statistics
Assessment Objectives
Overall
Weighting of AOs
(%)
AO1
35
46
46
23 35
AO2
35
24
24
13 25
AO3
47
25
25
14 32
AO4
12
12
12
6 12
1 2
2 4
162/3
24
12 23
100
AO5
Overall Weighting of Units (%)
Candidates marks for each assessment unit are scaled to achieve the correct weightings.
13
Subject Content
9
9.1
MODULE S1 - Statistics 1
Numerical measures
Probability
Binomial Distribution
Normal Distribution
Estimation
Correlation and Regression
MODULE S2 - Statistics 2
Time Series Analysis
Sampling
Discrete Probability Distributions
Interpretation of Data
Application of Hypothesis Testing
MODULE S3 - Statistics 3
Application of Contingency Tables in Real-world Situations
Distribution Free Methods
Correlation
9.2
A2 Modules
MODULE S4 - Statistics 4
Continuous Probability Distributions
Distributional Approximations
Estimation in a Real-world Context
Application of Hypothesis Testing
MODULE S5 - Statistics 5
Continuous Probability Distributions
Estimation
Application of Hypothesis Testing
MODULE S6 - Statistics 6
Experimental Design
Analysis of Variance
Statistical Process Control
Acceptance Sampling
14
10
AS Module
Statistics 1
Candidates may use relevant formulae included in the formulae
booklet without proof.
Candidates should learn the following formula, which is not included
in the formulae booklet, but which may be required to answer
questions.
(residual)i = yi a bxi
10.1
10.2
Numerical Measures
Standard deviation and
variance calculated on
ungrouped and grouped data.
Linear scaling.
Probability
Elementary probability; the
concept of a random event and
its probability.
15
10.3
Binomial Distribution
Discrete random variables.
n
Use of notation.
x
Use of tables
Mean, variance and standard
deviation of a binomial
distribution.
10.4
10.5
Normal Distribution
Continuous random variables.
Properties of normal
distributions.
Calculation of probabilities.
Estimation
Population and sample.
Unbiased estimators of a
population mean and variance.
X and S 2 respectively.
A normal distribution as an
approximation to the sampling
distribution of the mean of a
large sample from any
distribution.
estimator,
, and its
n
S
.
n
16
10.6
Identification of response
(dependent) and explanatory
(independent) variables in
regression.
Calculation of least squares
regression lines with one
explanatory variable. Scatter
diagrams and drawing a
regression line thereon.
Calculation of residuals.
Linear scaling.
17
11
AS Module
Statistics 2
Candidates will be expected to be familiar with the knowledge, skills
and understanding implicit in the module Statistics 1.
The emphasis is on using and applying statistics. Appropriate
interpretation of contexts and the outcomes of statistical procedures
will be required.
Candidates may use relevant formulae included in the formulae
booklet without proof.
Candidates should learn the following formulae, which are not
included in the formulae booklet, but which may be required to
answer questions.
P(Type I error) = P(reject H0 H0 true) and
P(Type II error) = P(accept H0 H0 false)
11.1
11.2
Sampling
Simple (without replacement)
and unrestricted (with
replacement) random samples.
Use of random numbers from
tables or calculators to obtain
random samples.
18
11.3
Discrete Probability
Distributions
Expectation and variance.
Use of:
E X xi p i
Eg X gxi pi
Var X EX E X
Var X E X E X 2
2
Use, but not proof, of mean and variance of Poisson distribution may
be tested.
Questions may require knowledge of binomial distribution from
module Statistics 1.
Candidates will be required to determine whether a Poisson
distribution is appropriate in a particular real-world situation.
Interpretation of Data
Data may be presented in the
form of diagrams, tables of
secondary data, summary
statistics and/or associated
analysis.
11.5
Application of Hypothesis
Testing
Null and alternative hypothesis,
significance levels, one and two
tailed tests.
19
12
AS Module
Statistics 3
Candidates will be expected to be familiar with the knowledge, skills
and understanding implicit in the modules Statistics 1 and
Statistics 2.
The emphasis is on using and applying statistics. Appropriate
interpretation of contexts and the outcomes of statistical
procedures will be required.
Candidates may use relevant formulae included in the formulae
booklet without proof.
Candidates should learn the following formulae, which are not
included in the formulae booklet, but which may be required to
answer questions.
Contingency Tables
E = (row total column total)/grand total
For an m n table the degrees of freedom are (m 1)(n 1)
Yates' correction for a 2 2 contingency table is
(O E 0.5)2/E
12.1
Application of Contingency
Tables in Real-world Situations
Use of (O E)2/E as an
approximate 2 -statistic.
Conditions for approximation to
be valid.
12.2
20
Correlation
Spearmans rank correlation
coefficient. Use of tables to test
no association between ranks.
21
13
A2 Module
Statistics 4
Candidates will be expected to be familiar with the knowledge, skills
and understanding implicit in the modules Statistics 1, Statistics 2 and
Statistics 3.
The emphasis is on using and applying statistics. Appropriate
interpretation of contexts and the outcomes of statistical procedures
will be required.
Candidates may use relevant formulae included in the formulae
booklet without proof.
Candidates should learn the following formulae, which are not
included in the formulae booklet, but which may be required to
answer questions.
When X is N(x,x2) and Y is independently N(y,y2) then
aX bY is N(ax by, a2x2 + b2y2)
13.1
Continuous Probability
Distributions
Distribution of a linear
combination of independent
normal random variables.
13.2
Distributional Approximations
Poisson approximation to
binomial. Normal
approximation to binomial and
Poisson distributions.
13.3
Estimation in a Real-world
Context
Application of confidence
intervals for mean based on a
sample from a normal
distribution with unknown
standard deviation using the tdistribution.
22
Approximate confidence
intervals, using normal
approximations, for proportions
and for the mean of a Poisson
distribution.
13.4
Application of Hypothesis
Testing
Hypothesis tests for mean
based on a sample from a
normal distribution with
unknown standard deviation
using the t-distribution.
23
14
A2 Module
Statistics 5
Candidates will be expected to be familiar with the knowledge, skills
and understanding implicit in the modules Statistics 1, Statistics 2,
Statistics 3 and Statistics 4.
The emphasis is on using and applying statistics. Appropriate
interpretation of contexts and the outcomes of statistical procedures
will be required.
Candidates may use relevant formulae included in the formulae
booklet without proof.
Candidates should learn the following formulae, which are not
included in the formulae booklet, but which may be required to
answer questions.
For an exponential distribution P(X
14.1
x) 1 e x
Continuous Probability
Distributions
Rectangular and Exponential
distributions.
14.2
Estimation
Determination of confidence
intervals for variance and
standard deviation based on a
sample from a normal
distribution.
14.3
Using 2.
Knowledge of the necessary conditions for application and
deductions in context.
Questions may be set which require the calculation of confidence
intervals for the mean using knowledge from modules Statistics 1
and/or Statistics 4.
Application of Hypothesis
Testing
Tests for variance and standard
deviation based on a sample
from a normal distribution.
24
Using F.
Using z.
Using t.
25
15
A2 Module
Statistics 6
Candidates will be expected to be familiar with the knowledge, skills
and understanding implicit in the modules Statistics 1, Statistics 2,
Statistics 3, Statistics 4 and Statistics 5.
The emphasis is on using and applying statistics. Appropriate
interpretation of contexts and the outcomes of statistical procedures
will be required.
Candidates may use relevant formulae included in the formulae
booklet without proof.
Candidates should learn the following formulae, which are not
included in the formulae booklet, but which may be required to
answer questions.
For Latin squares, SSR and SSC as for two-factor model with m = n
2
and SS L Lk / n T 2 /n 2
Warning limits for means chart are
1.96/n
3.09/n
15.2
Experimental Design
Experimental error,
randomisation, replication.
Control and experimental
groups, blind and double blind
trials. Use of paired
comparisons and blocking to
reduce experimental error.
Questions may be set which require the use of the sign test or
Wilcoxon signed-rank test from module Statistics 3 to analyse paired
comparisons.
Analysis of Variance
One-way analysis of variance,
completely randomised design.
26
15.3
Estimation of short-term
standard deviation from small
samples.
Ability of a process to meet
tolerances.
15.4
Acceptance Sampling
Schemes for attributes and
variables. Design to meet
specific criteria. Construction
and use of operating
characteristics.
27
16.1
16.2
28
Communication
What you must do ...
C3.1a
C3.1b
C3.2
C3.3
Contribute to discussions
Make a presentation
Read and synthesise information
Write different types of document
Application of Number
What you must do ...
Information Technology
What you must do ...
29
Note: The signposting in the tables above represents opportunities to acquire and produce evidence of the
Key Skills which are possible through this specification. There may be other opportunities to achieve
these and other aspects of Key Skills via this specification, but such opportunities are dependent on
the detailed course of study delivered within centres.
16.3
16.4.
Further Guidance
17
17.1
17.2
European Dimension
17.3
Environmental Education
17.4
Avoidance of Bias
30
Centre-assessed Component
18
Nature of Centre-assessed
Component
18.1
18.2
Early Notification
18.3
Relationship of Coursework to
Assessment Objectives
31
19
20
20.1
Assessment Criteria
Introduction
20.2
Criteria
The Marking Grid and Mark Breakdown have four strands, each of
which represents a different set of criteria.
The criteria within each strand listed on the Marking Grid are intended
to indicate the essential characteristics that should be identified at
various levels of performance to be expected from candidates within
that unit.
Teachers must complete the Marking Grid section of the Candidate
Record Form for each candidate.
The Mark Breakdown section of the Candidate Record Form gives a
further detailed breakdown of marks for each strand. This section is
optional. Teachers can use it as a guide in reaching the final mark for
the assessment of coursework tasks. Completing this section will be
useful for centres for internal standardisation procedures, and could
be used by AQA as a basis for feedback to centres.
The final mark for the assessment of the coursework task is the sum
of the marks for each strand.
If none of the criteria has been met in any strand then zero marks
must be awarded in that strand.
32
20.3
Data Collection
and Statistical
Analysis
Interpretation /
Validation
Marks
8 9
Marks
15
16
Marks
20
Assessment
Objective
mark allocation
A well-balanced and
coherent approach.
Clear discussion and
justification of the
statistical theories or
distributions used in
relation to the task.
AO1
AO2
AO3
AO4
AO5
6
9
3
2
0
A full range of
calculations are used.
The calculations are
correct and
appropriate to the
task.
AO1
AO2
AO3
AO4
AO5
10
4
0
0
6
AO1
AO2
AO3
AO4
AO5
2
0
12
6
0
AO1
AO2
AO3
AO4
AO5
6
10
2
0
2
24
AO2
23
AO3
17
AO4
AO5
8
80
33
20.4
The coursework task for each candidate must show clear, annotated
evidence of having been marked under the four strands. Calculations
must be checked for accuracy and annotated accordingly.
It is perfectly acceptable for parts of a candidates coursework to be
taken from other sources as long as all such cases are clearly identified
in the text and fully acknowledged either on the Candidate Record Form
or in supporting evidence. Where phrases, sentences or longer
passages are quoted directly from a source, candidates should use
quotation marks.
Teachers should keep records of their assessments during the course,
in a form which facilitates the complete and accurate submission of
the final assessments at the end of the course.
When the assessments are complete, the marks awarded under each
of the strands must be entered on the Candidate Record Form. The
Marking Grid section must be completed; the Mark Breakdown section
is optional. Supporting information should also be recorded in the
section provided on the last page of the form.
34
21
21.1
Supervision of Candidates
Work
21.2
21.3
Unfair Practice
21.4
Authentication of Candidates
Work
Both the candidate and the teacher are required to sign declarations
on the Candidate Record Form, confirming that the work submitted for
assessment is the candidates own. The form declares that the work
was conducted under the specified conditions, and requires the
teacher to record details of any additional assistance.
35
22
22.1
Standardisation
Annual Standardising
Meetings
Internal Standardisation of
Marking
36
23
23.1
Administrative Procedures
Recording Assessments
23.2
23.3
37
23.4
The centre must retain the work of all candidates, with Candidate
Record Forms attached, under secure conditions from the time it is
assessed; this is to allow for the possibility of an enquiry-about-results.
The work may be returned to candidates after the issue of results
provided that no enquiry-about-result is to be made which will
include re-moderation of the coursework component. If an enquiryabout-result is to be made, the work must remain under secure
conditions until requested by AQA.
Candidates wishing to improve the result of any unit containing
coursework may carry forward their moderated coursework mark
from a previous series.
24
24.1
Moderation
Moderation Procedures
24.2
Post-moderation Procedures
38
25.2
Grading System
25.3
25.4
Assessment Unit
Re-Sits
25.5
Carrying Forward of
Coursework Marks
25.6
Minimum Requirements
25.7
39
Appendices
A
Grade Descriptions
The following grade descriptions indicate the level of attainment
characteristic of the given grade at A Level. They give a general
indication of the required learning outcomes at each specific grade.
The descriptions should be interpreted in relation to the content
outlined in the specification; they are not designed to define that
content.
The grade awarded will depend, in practice, on the extent to which
the candidate has met the Assessment Objectives (as in Section 6)
overall. Shortcomings in some aspects of the examination may be
balanced by better performances in others.
Grade A Candidates recall or recognise almost all the statistical facts, concepts
and techniques that are needed, and select appropriate ones to use in a
wide variety of contexts.
Candidates manipulate statistical expressions and use graphs, sketches
and diagrams, all with high accuracy and skill. They use statistical
language correctly and proceed logically and rigorously through
extended arguments. When confronted with unstructured problems,
they can often devise and implement an effective solution strategy. If
errors are made in their calculations or logic, these are sometimes
noticed and corrected.
Candidates recall or recognise almost all the standard models that are
needed, and select appropriate ones to represent a wide variety of
situations in the real world. They correctly refer results from
calculations using the model to the original situation; they give
sensible interpretations of their results in the context of the original
realistic situation. They make intelligent comments on the modelling
assumptions and possible refinements to the model.
Candidates comprehend or understand the meaning of almost all
translations into statistics of common realistic contexts. They
correctly refer the results of calculations back to the given context and
usually make sensible comments or predictions. They can distil the
essential statistical information from extracts of prose having
statistical content. They comment meaningfully on the statistical
information.
Candidates make appropriate and efficient use of contemporary
calculator technology and other permitted resources, and are aware of
any limitations to their use. They present results to an appropriate
degree of accuracy.
Grade C Candidates recall or recognise most of the statistical facts, concepts
and techniques that are needed, and usually select appropriate ones to
use in a variety of contexts.
40
41
Statistical Notation
Probability and Statistics
A, B, C, etc.
events
A B
A B
P A
P A B
X, Y, R, etc.
random variables
x, y, r, etc.
x1 , x2 , ...
observations
f1 , f 2 , ...
p x
p1 , p2 , ...
f x , gx , ...
Fx , Gx , ...
E X
E g X
expectation of g X
Var X
Bn, p
N , 2
Po()
population mean
population median
population variance
sample mean
s2
n 1
42
x) of a
rs
Miscellaneous Symbols
=
is equal to
is not equal to
is approximately equal to
is less than
is less than or equal to, is not greater than
is greater than
is greater than or equal to, is not less than
infinity
Operations
ab
a plus b
a b
a minus b
a b, ab, a. b
a multiplied b
a
, ab
b
a divided by b
a b,
n
a1 a2 ... an
i 1
the modulus of a
x!
x factorial
n
x
n!
x! n x !
ex
exponential function of x
43
Record Forms
Candidate Record Forms, Centre Declaration Sheets and GCE Statistics specific forms are available on
the AQA website in the Administration area. They can be accessed via the following link
http://www.aqa.org.uk/admin/p_course.php
44
Old unit
SS1B
MBS1
SS02
MBS2
SS03
MBS3
SS04
MBS4
SS05
MBS7
SS06
MBS8
45