n(B)

Definition 2.1. Let B denote the black pockets on the roulette wheel. Then n(B)=18 and P (B)= n(total)
= 18
.
38
For every round that Donald bets on black, the probability of winning is thus P (B) and the probability of
losing is 1P (B).

Over 3 rounds, there are 3 ways Donald can win:

1. Win in the first round;
2. lose in the first round and win in the second; or
3. lose in the first two rounds and win in the third.
The probability of Donald winning is thus the sum of the probabilities of these scenarios, i.e.
P (win)=P (B)+P (not B)P (B)+P (not B)P (not B)P (B)
18 20 18 20 20 18
= + +
38 38 38 38 38 38
=0.8542
2.2 Analysis of strategy
We can first examine the distribution table of the change in Donalds money, and calculate the expected
winnings, as below. Let X be the change in the amount of Donalds money after executing his strategy.
X
+1000 -7000
P (X =x) 0.8542 0.1458
E(X)=(1000)(0.8542)+(7000)(0.1458)
=166.358
Hence it is shown that Donald is expected to lose $166.358 in the long run if he uses this strategy. The
relatively large amount of potential loss outweighs the winnings, hence his strategy is not a good one.

Reflection and Analysis

I have found good use for statistics and probability in the case of predicting live tennis matches. In tennis,
serve initiates game play and the player serving serves the entire game. Tennis points accumulate in the
manner 0 (1st point), 15 (2nd point), 30, 40 and upon earning the 5th point, one game is won. The winner
of a tennis game must win with a two point advantage. If the players are tied at 4040, then points have
to be played until one of the players successfully scores two points in succession.
In the next game, the other player serves, and the former player receives, and so on. A player has to win
at least 6 games to win a set, and win no less than 2 sets (best of 3) to win a match.
We can predict the outcome of a game, set or even match given the probability that a player wins when serving,
p, and the probability that the player wins when returning anothers serve, q. These values are typically reported
as part of the players match statistics when the match is going on, hence is it possible to predict the outcomes.
On the simplest level, we can derive the probability of winning a game G(p) as follows:

X
G(p)=
P (winning game while losing i points)
i=0

X
=p +4p (1p)+10p (1p )+20p (1p) [2p(1p)]i3
4

i=3
2

=p4(154p

10p
)
12p(1p)

We can extend this by building a simple Markov Chain of the possible scores for a set where a player would
win, to obtain the probability of winning the set, S(p,q). The formula for S(p,q) is omitted in the interest
of space since it involves a coefficient matrix comprising all 21 possible outcomes of game scores that make
up a set. For a best of 3-set match, the probability that a player would win is
M3(p,q)=(S(p,q))2[1+2(1S(p,q))]
For a best of 5-set match, it is
M5(p,q)=(S(p,q))3[1+3(1S(p,q))+6(1S(p,q))2]
As can be seen above, statistics and probability can be easily applied into many areas of life to predict
outcomes and make life easier especially when data is available for analysis.
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