MANPOWER INC.

EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK SURVEY

FIRST QUARTER 2001

 THE NATIONAL OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35

30

25

20

15

10

0
NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
net % +/-
% % no % % don’t net % seasonally
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted

MINING 22 60 12 6 10 15

CONSTRUCTION 24 58 14 4 10 27

MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 29 56 10 5 19 24

MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 27 59 9 5 18 22

TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 27 59 8 6 19 22

WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 27 53 16 4 11 30

FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 23 65 6 6 17 18

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 22 70 3 5 19 22

SERVICES 28 60 7 5 21 26

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 24 65 6 5 18 22

ALL INDUSTRIES 27 58 10 5 17 25

UNITED STATES
REGIONAL, SEASONAL PATTERNS
LEAD TO RECORD HIRING NEEDS
While demand for new THE OUTLOOK BY INDUSTRY 1986-2001
employees remains unfulfilled,
strong regional patterns emerge MINING CONSTRUCTION
50 50
from company hiring plans for 40 40

the first quarter. Although all 30 30

20
20

geographic areas matched or 10 10

0
exceeded previous seasonal 0

-10 -10

records, regional and industry -20 -20

-30 -30
patterns heavily influenced the 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

outlook at the outset of the

MANUFACTURING - DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING - NON-DURABLE GOODS
coming year. Manufacturing – 50 50

both Durable and Non-Durable 40 40

30 30

– indicate hiring that will fall 20 20

slightly below levels of the 10

0
10

year-ago quarter and some -10 -10

-20 -20
sectors that are historically -30 -30
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
sluggish at this time reflect
changes in staffing strategies. TRANSPORTATION & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES
Construction, for example, after 50 50
40 40
only three positive wintertime 30 30

outlooks from 1977-94, now 20 20

10 10
anticipates such a position for 0 0

the fifth time since then. -10 -10

-20 -20

Similarly, Wholesale & Retail -30

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
-30
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Trades, normally reducing

bloated holiday workforces, FINANCE, INSURANCE & REAL ESTATE EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE
50
now undertake staffing on a 40
50

40

year-around basis and 30 30

20 20

expectations are positive for 10 10

the seventh consecutive year 0 0

-10 -10

at the post-holiday period. -20 -20

-30 -30
A gradual transformation to 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

12-month hiring is also appar-

ent in the Education field, SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
50 50

which customarily concentrated 40 40

30 30
recruiting at the year-end 20 20

quarter. The sector is presently 10 10

0 0

among the nation’s leading -10 -10

industries. -20

-30
-20

-30
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED
 THE NORTHEAST OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35

30

25

20

15

10

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY NORTHEAST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
The record levels of demand expressed
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted in the third and fourth quarters of 2000
MINING 33 50 0 17 33 33 now carries over to the highest first
quarter total in the survey history. The
CONSTRUCTION 20 59 16 5 4 21
present net hiring strength is considerably
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 30 53 11 6 19 21 beyond any previous result for a like
period. Both Education and Services
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 26 57 11 6 15 19
employers report plans that exceed the
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 26 62 7 5 19 23 year-earlier survey by more than double
the net hiring strength. Expectations in
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 30 53 13 4 17 33
the Transportation & Public Utilities field
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 24 61 8 7 16 15 are substantially greater than any other
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 27 66 4 3 23 26 similar quarter. Wholesale & Retail
Trades, after very aggressive recruiting
SERVICES 27 59 7 7 20 27
efforts throughout 2000 now shun the
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 23 65 8 4 15 18 traditional post-holiday layoff policy.
The net hiring strength is double that
ALL INDUSTRIES 27 58 10 5 17 25
of the record seen one year ago.
Construction firms, normally facing
CONNECTICUT
MAINE winter slowdowns, instead seem to be
MASSACHUSETTS spreading their hiring activity more evenly
NEW HAMPSHIRE during the year. Present intentions are
NEW JERSEY
NEW YORK greater than seasonally expected.
PENNSYLVANIA
RHODE ISLAND
VERMONT
 THE MIDWEST OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35

30

25

20

15

10

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY MIDWEST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
Staffing in the Midwest leaped to a new
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted order of magnitude in mid-1997 and
MINING 0 71 29 0 -29 -16 variations since then have been primarily
seasonal in character in this region
CONSTRUCTION 19 61 18 2 1 29
where weather conditions play havoc with
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 25 60 11 4 14 20 business operations in many industries.
Thus, industries such as Construction,
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 29 59 8 4 21 24
which appears weak, is actually much
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 24 64 7 5 17 19 stronger than seasonally anticipated.
Expectations are now positive in this
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 21 57 19 3 2 27
quarter for the first time in the survey’s
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 20 73 4 3 16 15 25-year history. Nearly the same is true
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 20 74 2 4 18 22 of Wholesale & Retail Trades, where
traditional pruning of massive numbers of
SERVICES 28 62 6 4 22 26
holiday help no longer dominates the
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 19 74 5 2 14 19 staffing picture. A small positive was
recorded only in 1996. Among Durable
ALL INDUSTRIES 24 61 11 4 13 23
Goods Manufacturers, however, a
ILLINOIS curtailment beyond seasonal expecta-
INDIANA tions to the lowest first quarter level since
IOWA 1993 is clearly discernable. Education
KANSAS
MICHIGAN employers, who until the mid-1990s
MINNESOTA customarily limited almost all recruiting to
MISSOURI
NEBRASKA year-end, now are among the regional
NORTH DAKOTA leaders. Services firms, victims of
OHIO perhaps the greatest personnel shortage
SOUTH DAKOTA
WISCONSIN over an extended period, express the
most active intentions.
 THE SOUTHERN OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35

30

25

20

15

10

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY SOUTH

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
Removing seasonal trends, staffing in
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted the South has very gradually increased
MINING 24 63 11 2 13 19 from mid-1997 to early 2000 and
reached a new plateau three quarters
CONSTRUCTION 30 59 7 4 23 32
ago, capped now by its highest first
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 32 54 8 6 24 29 quarter in history. Durable Goods
Manufacturing is the first quarter area
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 27 61 8 4 19 22
leader for the sixth time in eight years.
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 25 59 10 6 15 18 In no other region is the Construction
industry as optimistic. The net hiring
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 29 54 13 4 16 31
strength is substantially greater than in
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 21 67 6 6 15 17 any like period. Unlike the forecast in
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 19 71 4 6 15 17 most other areas, Transportation & Public
Utilities lags below the like periods of
SERVICES 28 62 5 5 23 26
recent years. Services firms continue
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 26 64 5 5 21 23 the substantial seasonal levels of the
past two quarters and Wholesale & Retail
ALL INDUSTRIES 28 59 8 5 20 26
Trades continues to express a critical
ALABAMA MARYLAND need for additional personnel. Notable
ARKANSAS MISSISSIPPI in the South is the position of Education
DELAWARE NORTH CAROLINA employers. Net hiring strength conforms
DISTRICT OKLAHOMA
OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA more closely to seasonal patterns, thus
FLORIDA TENNESSEE avoiding the expression of the serious
GEORGIA TEXAS
KENTUCKY VIRGINIA shortage that exists in other parts of
LOUISIANA WEST VIRGINIA the country.
 THE WESTERN OUTLOOK 1986-2001
35

30

25

20

15

10

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

-5 NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

-10
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY WEST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
While the outlook in the West has
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted never been brighter at this season, the
MINING 22 50 11 17 11 14 region nonetheless gives up its national
leadership position to the South as the
CONSTRUCTION 23 53 20 4 3 16
new year begins. On a deseasonalized
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 37 48 8 7 29 32 basis, results from mid-1999 through
early 2000 were unchanged, but the
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 29 54 9 8 20 24
higher level is now sustained on a rather
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 35 47 10 8 25 29 steady plateau for a fourth consecutive
quarter. Almost every sector has been
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 29 46 19 6 10 25
expressing increasing worker shortages
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 29 57 6 8 23 27 over the past 2-3 years, although the
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 28 62 4 6 24 27 decline in Construction hiring from
that of the past two first quarters is
SERVICES 30 52 9 9 21 25
noteworthy and the plans of Services
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 28 57 6 9 22 29 firms are marginally below those of one
year ago. Uniquely among regions in the
ALL INDUSTRIES 30 52 11 7 19 27
present survey, Finance, Insurance &
Real Estate firms maintain a high level
ALASKA
ARIZONA forecast that existed throughout 2000,
CALIFORNIA while requirements of Public Administra-
COLORADO
HAWAII tion units declined beyond seasonal
IDAHO expectations three months ago. These
MONTANA agencies now anticipate a greater need
NEVADA
NEW MEXICO than in any first quarter in two decades.
OREGON
UTAH
WASHINGTON
WYOMING
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www.manpower.com

The quarterly Employment Outlook

Survey has been conducted as a
public service of Manpower Inc. for
25 years. The survey was designed
and is administered by Manpower’s
International Research Department,
utilizing a statistically representative
sample of 16,000 public and private
employers from among ten industrial
sectors in 489 U.S. markets.
The first quarter 2001 survey
is a measurement of employment
plans for the permanent workforce.
The survey results reflect the intentions
of the sample employers interviewed.
Some of these intentions may change
unexpectedly upon the conclusion of
this survey.