Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
2003
503.40
405.20
98.20
37.80
60.40
6.80
53.60
5.50
48.10
2007
680.70
558.20
122.50
49.00
73.50
6.10
67.40
3.30
64.10
CAGR
7.84%
8.34%
5.68%
6.70%
5.03%
5.89%
7.44%
Tax expense
Net income
19.20
28.90
22.00
32.80
13.30
20.00
24.00
36.00
25.60
38.50
Revenue Growth
Gross Margin
SG&A
EBITDA Margin
EBIT Margin
Net Income Margin
Effective Tax Rate
19.5%
7.5%
12.0%
10.6%
5.7%
39.9%
8.0%
20.5%
8.2%
12.3%
11.1%
6.0%
40.1%
8.0%
15.5%
7.8%
7.7%
6.7%
3.4%
39.9%
8.3%
19.3%
8.1%
11.2%
10.3%
5.7%
40.0%
7.0%
18.0%
7.2%
10.8%
9.9%
5.7%
39.9%
2003
4.3
62.1
57.7
124.1
2004
5.1
70.1
58.0
133.2
December 31,
2005
4.8
78.8
61.2
144.8
2006
7.8
87.1
61.9
156.8
2007
5.0
93.3
67.3
165.6
3.84%
10.71%
3.92%
201.4
12.3
337.8
202.9
12.1
348.2
203.1
11.8
359.7
202.3
12.5
371.6
204.4
10.8
380.8
0.37%
-3.20%
3.04%
7.43%
42.2
45.0
51.6
53.4
58.1
8.32%
Long-term debt
Shareholder equity
91.6
204.0
82.8
220.4
73.8
234.3
65.8
252.4
54.8
267.9
-12.05%
7.05%
337.8
348.2
359.7
371.6
380.8
3.04%
62.1
57.7
42.2
77.6
70.1
58.0
45.0
83.1
78.8
61.2
51.6
88.4
87.1
61.9
53.4
95.6
93.3
67.3
58.1
102.5
DU PONT
Margin
Asset Turnover
ROA
MF
ROE
5.74%
1.49
8.6%
1.66
14.2%
6.03%
1.56
9.4%
1.58
14.9%
3.41%
1.63
5.6%
1.54
8.5%
5.66%
1.71
9.7%
1.47
14.3%
5.66%
1.79
10.1%
1.42
14.4%
2003
28.90
6.80
3.10
0.50
0.30
32.40
2007
38.50
6.10
6.20
5.40
4.70
37.70
-7.30
-0.50
-7.80
-7.70
0.20
-7.50
-6.20
0.30
-5.90
-5.10
-0.70
-5.80
-8.20
1.70
-6.50
-8.00
-14.40
-22.40
-8.80
-16.40
-25.20
-9.00
-6.10
-15.10
-8.00
-17.90
-25.90
-11.00
-23.00
-34.00
2.20
0.80
-0.30
3.00
-2.80
Exhibit 4
2003
Mass merchants
Grocery
Club
Drug
Dollar
Al others
$170
$91
$136
$55
$22
$31
Total
$505
2004
34%
18%
27%
11%
4%
6%
$193
$92
$141
$60
$24
$33
$543
2005
36%
17%
26%
11%
4%
6%
$220
$92
$149
$66
$26
$34
$587
2006
37%
16%
25%
11%
4%
6%
$247
$92
$159
$73
$29
$37
$637
2007
39%
14%
25%
11%
5%
6%
$268
$94
$167
$80
$32
$40
$681
39%
14%
25%
12%
5%
6%
2009
Revenue Projection
Total Capacity (000)
Capacity Utilization
Unit Volume
Selling price per unit - growing at
Revenue
Production Costs
Raw Materials - growth
Manufacturing overhead - growth
Maintenance Expense - growth
Salaried labor cost
Managers
Averaged annually fully loaded cost
Total salaried labor cost
Hourly Labor Cost
Average Fully loaded hourly cost
hours per year
Cost per hourly employee
number of hourly workers
total hourly labor cost (000,s)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
80,000
60.0%
48,000
1.77
84,960
###
65.0%
52,000
1.81
93,881
80,000
70.0%
56,000
1.84
103,124
80,000
75.0%
60,000
1.88
112,700
80,000
80.0%
64,000
1.92
122,618
80,000
85.0%
68,000
1.95
132,887
80,000
85.0%
68,000
1.99
135,545
80,000
85.0%
68,000
2.03
138,256
80,000
85.0%
68,000
2.07
141,021
80,000
85.0%
68,000
2.12
143,841
1.0%
3.0%
3.0%
0.94
3,600.0
2,250.0
0.95
3,708.0
2,317.5
0.96
3,819.2
2,387.0
0.97
3,933.8
2,458.6
0.98
4,051.8
2,532.4
0.99
4,173.4
2,608.4
1.00
4,298.6
2,686.6
1.01
4,427.5
2,767.2
1.02
4,560.4
2,850.2
1.03
4,697.2
2,935.7
3.5%
4
160
640.0
4
165.6
662.4
6
171.4
1,028.4
6
177.4
1,064.4
8
183.6
1,468.8
8
190.0
1,520.2
8
196.7
1,573.4
8
203.6
1,628.5
8
210.7
1,685.5
8
218.1
1,744.5
20.00
2,000
40,000
450.0
18,000
107
20.70
###
41,400
473.00
19,582
110
21.42
2,000
42,849
509.00
21,810
110
22.17
2,000
44,349
545.00
24,170
110
22.95
2,000
45,901
582.00
26,714
110
23.75
2,000
47,507
618.00
29,360
110
24.59
2,000
49,170
618.00
30,387
110
25.45
2,000
50,891
618.00
31,451
110
26.34
2,000
52,672
618.00
32,552
110
27.26
2,000
54,516
618.00
33,691
110
18,640
20,245
22,839
25,234
28,183
30,880
31,961
33,079
34,237
35,435
2.0%
3.5%
7.8%
47.6
37.6
34.2
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
7.8%
20,000
4
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Precio inicial
Incremento anual en el precio
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
$ 1.77
2.00%
Costo gerente
crecimiento
Building
Manufacturing equipment
Packaging equipment
Working capital
Tasa Impositiva
Recupero activo fijo
Recupero capitl de trabajo
Discount rate, after tax
Fondo de Maniobra
Inversin en clientes
Inventarios
Proveedores
base de calculo Ao
2,250.00
3.00%
160.00
3.50%
$
$
$
$
$
10,000
20,000
15,000
45,000
12,817
20
10
10
10
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
68,000
1.95
0.99
8.00
190.03
23.75
68,000
1.99
1.00
8.00
196.68
24.59
68,000
2.03
1.01
8.00
203.56
25.45
68,000
2.07
1.02
8.00
210.69
26.34
68,000
2.12
1.03
8.00
218.06
27.26
trabajadores
450.00
473.00
509.00
545.00
582.00
618.00
618.00
618.00
618.00
618.00
84,960
-18,000
-45,120
-3,600
-2,250
-640
15,350
-6,627
8,723
10.3%
-4,000
4,723
-1,889
4,000
6,834
93,881
-19,582
-49,369
-3,708
-2,318
-662
18,242
-7,323
10,919
11.6%
-4,000
6,919
-2,768
4,000
8,152
103,124
-21,810
-53,698
-3,819
-2,387
-1,028
20,382
-8,044
12,338
12.0%
-4,000
8,338
-3,335
4,000
9,003
112,700
-24,170
-58,109
-3,934
-2,459
-1,064
22,964
-8,791
14,174
12.6%
-4,000
10,174
-4,070
4,000
10,104
122,618
-26,714
-62,603
-4,052
-2,532
-1,469
25,248
-9,564
15,684
12.8%
-4,000
11,684
-4,673
4,000
11,010
132,887
-29,360
-67,181
-4,173
-2,608
-1,520
28,045
-10,365
17,680
13.3%
-4,000
13,680
-5,472
4,000
12,208
135,545
-30,387
-67,852
-4,299
-2,687
-1,573
28,747
-10,573
18,174
13.4%
-4,000
14,174
-5,670
4,000
12,505
138,256
-31,451
-68,531
-4,428
-2,767
-1,629
29,451
-10,784
18,667
13.5%
-4,000
14,667
-5,867
4,000
12,800
141,021
-32,552
-69,216
-4,560
-2,850
-1,686
30,157
-11,000
19,157
13.6%
-4,000
15,158
-6,063
4,000
13,095
143,841
-33,691
-69,908
-4,697
-2,936
-1,745
30,865
-11,220
19,645
13.7%
-4,000
15,645
-6,258
4,000
13,387
-45,000
-11,660
-1,220
-1,263
-1,308
-1,354
-1,401
-358
-365
-372
-379
(56,660)
5,614
6,888
7,695
8,751
9,609
11,850
12,140
12,428
12,715
5,000
19,679
38,066
5,119
-51,541
5,727
-45,813
5,834
-39,980
6,049
-33,931
6,057
-27,874
6,811
-21,063
6,362
-14,701
5,939
-8,762
5,540
-3,222
15,124
11,902
costo de mantenimiento
crecimiento anual
$ 3,600
3.00%
5
2013
64,000
1.92
0.98
8.00
183.60
22.95
$ 1.00
3.00%
4
2012
60,000
1.88
0.97
6.00
177.39
22.17
$ 0.94 unitario
1.00%
3
2011
56,000
1.84
0.96
6.00
171.40
21.42
7.80% de ventas
2
2010
52,000
1.81
0.95
4.00
165.60
20.70
$ 20.00
3.50%
2,000.00
1
2009
48,000
1.77
0.94
4.00
160.00
20.00
Ingresos
Costo MOD
Costo Materiales
Costos Fijos manufactura
Mantenimiento
Gerentes
Margen bruto
Gastos marketing y ventas
EBITDA
EBTIDA Margin
Depreciacin
EBIT
Impuestos
Depreciacion
NOPAT
CAPEX
Inv k de w
Valor de rescate
Recuperacion k w
FCF
costo hora
crecimiento
horas trabajador
0
2008
CCPP
VAN
TIR
9.67%
11,902
13.20%
Activo bruto
Depreciacion edificios
depreciacion eq manufact
Depreciacion eq empaque
Activos fijos neto
ROI Principio
ROIC
CFROI
Economic Profit
EVA
45,000
45,000
disc pback
PI
1.21
11,234
4,713
4,286
11,660
(11,660)
12,413
5,156
4,690
12,879
(1,220)
13,635
5,608
5,101
14,142
(1,263)
14,901
6,069
5,520
15,450
(1,308)
16,213
6,539
5,947
16,804
(1,354)
17,571
7,017
6,382
18,205
(1,401)
17,922
7,087
6,446
18,563
(358)
18,280
7,158
6,510
18,928
(365)
18,646
7,229
6,576
19,300
(372)
19,019
7,302
6,641
19,679
(379)
45,000
500
2,000
1,500
41,000
45,000
500
2,000
1,500
37,000
45,000
500
2,000
1,500
33,000
45,000
500
2,000
1,500
29,000
45,000
500
2,000
1,500
25,000
45,000
500
2,000
1,500
21,000
45,000
500
2,000
1,500
17,000
45,000
500
2,000
1,500
13,000
45,000
500
2,000
1,500
9,000
45,000
500
2,000
1,500
5,000
73.6%
35.2%
106.9%
9,066
9,066
98.5%
40.1%
143.6%
9,713
9,713
145.5%
46.3%
212.9%
10,358
10,358
267.7%
54.2%
392.9%
11,001
11,001
16.7%
13.0%
21.3%
1,742
1,742
22.0%
16.3%
29.5%
3,328
3,328
Pgina 6 de 323429680.xls
27.3%
19.1%
37.4%
4,444
4,444
34.8%
22.7%
48.9%
5,806
5,806
44.0%
26.3%
62.7%
6,968
6,968
58.1%
31.1%
84.2%
8,417
8,417
20,000
4
2009
2010
2011
Precio inicial
Incremento anual en el precio
costo hora
crecimiento
horas trabajador
$ 1.77
2.00%
$ 20.00
3.50%
2,000.00
$ 0.94 unitario
1.00%
60%
60%
60%
$ 3,600
3.00%
2,250.00
3.00%
160.00
3.50%
7.80% de ventas
$ 1.00
3.00%
Building
Manufacturing equipment
Packaging equipment
Working capital
$
$
$
$
$
10,000
20,000
15,000
45,000
12,817
20
10
10
Tasa Impositiva
Recupero activo fijo
Recupero capitl de trabajo
40.0%
100.00% de af neto
100.00% de fondo man
Rf
Market Risk Premium
Tax
Beta
Rd
Wd
We
Beta levered
WACC
9.67%
47.60
37.60
34.20
360.00 das
3.75%
5.00%
40.00%
1.18
7.75%
25.00%
75.00%
100.00%
1.416
9.2850%
2008
2009
2010
2011
48,000
1.77
0.94
4.00
160.00
20.00
48,000
1.81
0.95
4.00
165.60
20.70
48,000
1.84
0.96
6.00
171.40
21.42
trabajadores
450.00
450.00
450.00
Ingresos
Costo MOD
Costo Materiales
Costos Fijos manufactura
Mantenimiento
Gerentes
Margen bruto
Gastos marketing y ventas
EBITDA
EBTIDA Margin
Depreciacin
EBIT
Impuestos
Depreciacion
NOPAT
CAPEX
Inv k de w
Valor de rescate
Recuperacion k w
FCF
84,960
-18,000
-45,120
-3,600
-2,250
-640
15,350
-6,627
8,723
10.3%
-4,000
4,723
-1,889
4,000
6,834
86,659
-18,630
-45,571
-3,708
-2,318
-662
15,770
-6,759
9,011
10.4%
-4,000
5,011
-2,004
4,000
7,006
88,392
-19,282
-46,027
-3,819
-2,387
-1,028
15,849
-6,895
8,954
10.1%
-4,000
4,954
-1,982
4,000
6,973
-11,660
-229
-4,826
6,778
-233
33,000
7,315
47,054
-4,400
-49,400
5,635
-43,765
35,672
-8,093
-45,000
(45,000)
9.67%
(8,093)
2.82%
disc pback
PI
11,234
4,713
4,286
11,660
(11,660)
11,458
4,760
4,329
11,889
(229)
0.82
11,687
4,807
4,373
12,122
(233)
Activo bruto
Depreciacion edificios
depreciacion eq manufact
Depreciacion eq empaque
Activos fijos neto
45,000
45,000
ROI Principio
ROIC
CFROI
Economic Profit
EVA
45,000
500
2,000
1,500
41,000
45,000
500
2,000
1,500
37,000
45,000
500
2,000
1,500
33,000
16.7%
13.0%
21.3%
1,742
1,742
18.9%
14.3%
24.4%
2,279
2,279
21.1%
15.5%
27.1%
2,609
2,609
90%
8.69%
9.09%
9.50%
9.91%
10.32%
10.73%
85%
8.20%
8.61%
9.02%
9.43%
9.84%
10.25%
Wd
9.2850%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
100%
9.65%
10.06%
10.47%
10.88%
11.29%
11.70%
95%
9.17%
9.58%
9.99%
10.40%
10.81%
11.22%
60.00%
70.00%
74.40%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
VAN
(8,093)
(8,093)
(430)
2,944
7,233
14,896
22,559
TIR
2.82%
2.82%
9.31%
12.09%
15.55%
21.56%
27.38%