TABLE A.1.

FRANCE, 1998 REVISION

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision.

112

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

TABLE A.1 (continued)

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision.

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

113

TABLE A.2. FRANCE, REPLACEMENT MIGRATION SCENARIOS

FRANCE
Scenario
Period

II
Medium
variant with
zero migration

Medium
variant

III
Constant
total
population

IV
Constant
age group
15-64

V
Ratio 15-64/65+
not less than 3.0

VI
Constant ratio
15-64/65 years
or older

A. Average annual net migration (thousands)

1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
2045-2050
Grand total 1995-2050

40
30
20
10
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
525

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
6
42
70
86
91

0
0
0
179
207
182
155
113
117
54
86

0
0
0
0
0
783
1064
811
546
0
3

842
333
219
1 934
1 988
1 937
2 002
2 046
2 204
2 057
3 196

1 473

5 459

16 037

93 794

58 020
58 879
59 571
60 139
61 545
63 112
64 442
65 505
66 192
66 750
66 890
67 130

58 020
58 879
59 571
60 139
60 597
60 960
65 283
71 365
76 441
80 228
81 089
81 719

58 020
63 310
66 179
68 436
79 702
92 232
105 188
119 014
133 522
149 345
164 994
187 193

37 986
38 488
39 145
39 625
39 625
39 625
39 625
39 625
39 625
39 625
39 625
39 625

37 986
38 488
39 145
39 625
38 965
38 145
40 247
43 661
46 552
48 753
49 488
50 152

37 986
41 593
43 734
45 381
52 319
59 918
67 847
76 551
86 078
96 507
106 826
121 047

B. Total population (thousands)

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

58 020
59 080
59 925
60 597
61 108
61 500
61 662
61 632
61 401
60 998
60 474
59 883

58 020
58 879
59 571
60 139
60 597
60 960
61 121
61 091
60 862
60 462
59 943
59 357

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

37 986
38 620
39 378
39 925
39 294
38 483
37 686
36 919
36 231
35 512
35 058
34 586

37 986
38 488
39 145
39 625
38 965
38 145
37 355
36 594
35 913
35 199
34 750
34 282

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

4.36
4.10
4.02
3.96
3.49
3.11
2.81
2.59
2.42
2.31
2.28
2.26

58 020
58 879
59 571
60 139
60 597
60 960
61 121
61 121
61 121
61 121
61 121
61 121

C. Age group 15-64 (thousands)

37 986
38 488
39 145
39 625
38 965
38 145
37 355
36 615
36 092
35 652
35 557
35 493

D. Potential support ratio 15-64/65 or older

114

4.36
4.10
4.02
3.96
3.49
3.11
2.81
2.59
2.42
2.31
2.28
2.26

4.36
4.10
4.02
3.96
3.49
3.11
2.81
2.59
2.43
2.33
2.32
2.33

4.36
4.10
4.02
3.96
3.54
3.20
2.95
2.76
2.62
2.53
2.51
2.49

4.36
4.10
4.02
3.96
3.49
3.11
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00

4.36
4.36
4.36
4.36
4.36
4.36
4.36
4.36
4.36
4.36
4.36
4.36

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

TABLE A.2 (continued)

FRANCE
Scenario
Period

I
Medium
variant

II
Medium
variant with
zero migration

III
Constant
total
population

IV
Constant
age group
15-64

V
Ratio 15-64/65+
not less than 3.0

VI
Constant ratio
15-64/65 years
or older

E. Age group 65 or older (thousands)

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

8 708
9 413
9 807
10 087
11 252
12 389
13 388
14 275
14 956
15 402
15 378
15 285

8 708
9 381
9 749
10 009
11 158
12 281
13 271
14 150
14 825
15 268
15 243
15 151

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

15.0
15.9
16.4
16.6
18.4
20.1
21.7
23.2
24.4
25.2
25.4
25.5

15.0
15.9
16.4
16.6
18.4
20.1
21.7
23.2
24.4
25.3
25.4
25.5

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

11 326
11 047
10 740
10 585
10 563
10 627
10 588
10 438
10 214
10 084
10 038
10 012

11 326
11 009
10 677
10 505
10 475
10 534
10 495
10 347
10 124
9 996
9 950
9 924

8 708
9 381
9 749
10 009
11 158
12 281
13 271
14 151
14 834
15 294
15 294
15 234

8 708
9 381
9 749
10 009
11 191
12 366
13 417
14 364
15 114
15 661
15 786
15 932

8 708
9 381
9 749
10 009
11 158
12 281
13 416
14 554
15 517
16 251
16 471
16 717

8 708
9 535
10 026
10 403
11 994
13 736
15 554
17 549
19 733
22 124
24 490
27 750

15.0
15.9
16.4
16.6
18.2
19.6
20.8
21.9
22.8
23.5
23.6
23.7

15.0
15.9
16.4
16.6
18.4
20.1
20.6
20.4
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.5

15.0
15.1
15.1
15.2
15.0
14.9
14.8
14.7
14.8
14.8
14.8
14.8

11 326
11 009
10 677
10 505
10 729
11 120
11 399
11 515
11 453
11 464
11 478
11 572

11 326
11 009
10 677
10 505
10 475
10 534
11 620
13 150
14 372
15 223
15 131
14 850

11 326
12 182
12 419
12 652
15 390
18 578
21 788
24 914
27 711
30 714
33 677
38 396

F. Percentage in age group 65 or older

15.0
15.9
16.4
16.6
18.4
20.1
21.7
23.2
24.3
25.0
25.0
24.9
G. Age group 0-14 (thousands)
11 326
11 009
10 677
10 505
10 475
10 534
10 495
10 355
10 194
10 175
10 269
10 393

H. Potential support ratio in 2050, by age at entry into non-working-age population

Age
65
70
75
80

2.26
3.19
4.71
7.75

2.26
3.19
4.71
7.75

2.33
3.28
4.84
7.96

2.49
3.53
5.22
8.60

3.00
4.22
6.17
10.10

4.36
6.49
10.00
17.09

NOTE: The six scenarios can be described briefly as follows:

I Corresponds to the medium variant of the official United Nations population projections (World Population Prospects, 1998 Revision).
II This scenario amends the medium variant by assuming no migration after 1995.
III This scenario keeps the total population figure constant at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
IV This scenario keeps the number of persons aged 15-64 constant at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
V This scenario prevents the ratio of persons aged 15-64 to persons aged 65 and above from falling below 3.0.
VI This scenario keeps the ratio of persons aged 15-64 and above at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
This scenario is considered to be demographically unrealistic.

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

115