TABLE A.3.

GERMANY, 1998 REVISION

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision.

116

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

TABLE A.3 (continued)

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision.

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

117

TABLE A.4. GERMANY, REPLACEMENT MIGRATION SCENARIOS

GERMANY
Scenario
Period

I
Medium
variant

II
Medium
variant with
zero migration

III
Constant
total
population

IV
Constant
age group
15-64

V
Ratio 15-64/65+
not less than 3.0

VI
Constant ratio
15-64/65 years
or older

A. Average annual net migration (thousands)

1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
2045-2050
Grand total 1995-2050

240
240
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

130
215
268
286
301
325
357
399
422
432
431

176
417
334
294
578
740
896
747
287
213
360

0
0
0
0
1 056
2 100
2 837
2 103
0
0
0

1 398
3 251
1 879
806
2 081
3 347
5 646
6 462
4 718
4 016
4 096

11 400

17 838

25 209

40 481

188 497

81 661
81 898
82 965
83 397
83 539
85 076
87 451
90 645
93 030
92 923
92 178
92 022

81 661
80 985
79 819
78 302
76 601
80 258
89 661
103 615
114 503
114 655
114 132
113 181

81 661
88 241
104 482
114 386
119 011
130 126
148 307
179 530
216 669
246 258
272 559
299 272

55 763
55 114
53 520
52 103
50 736
52 149
57 029
64 603
70 814
71 605
72 637
72 667

55 763
60 271
71 107
78 064
81 650
88 910
100 331
119 722
143 049
162 446
180 580
199 400

4.41
4.11
3.53
3.24
3.10
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.03
3.14
3.13

4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41
4.41

B. Total population (thousands)

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

81 661
82 220
82 365
82 032
81 574
80 996
80 238
79 252
77 989
76 531
74 948
73 303

81 661
80 985
79 819
78 302
76 601
74 733
72 643
70 287
67 636
64 785
61 817
58 812

1995
2000
2005
2010
2,015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

55 763
56 025
55 424
54 917
54 503
52 995
50 773
47 855
45 353
44 425
43 767
42 706

55 763
55 114
53 520
52 103
50 736
48 249
45 042
41 145
37 698
35 922
34 514
32 744

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

4.41
4.17
3.63
3.38
3.29
3.03
2.71
2.31
2.04
2.02
2.05
2.05

4.41
4.11
3.53
3.23
3.10
2.81
2.45
2.04
1.76
1.72
1.75
1.75

81 661
81 661
81 661
81 661
81 661
81 661
81 661
81 661
81 661
81 661
81 661
81 661

C. Age group 15-64 (thousands)

55 763
55 595
54 835
54 516
54 391
53 277
51 588
49 357
47 718
47 813
48 307
48 426

55 763
55 763
55 763
55 763
55 763
55 763
55 763
55 763
55 763
55 763
55 763
55 763

D. Potential support ratio 15-64/65 or older

118

4.41
4.14
3.60
3.35
3.27
3.04
2.74
2.37
2.12
2.14
2.22
2.26

4.41
4.15
3.65
3.42
3.34
3.15
2.91
2.61
2.40
2.39
2.43
2.44

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

TABLE A.4 (continued)

GERMANY
Scenario
Period

I
Medium
variant

II
Medium
variant with
zero migration

III
Constant
total
population

IV
Constant
age group
15-64

V
Ratio 15-64/65+
not less than 3.0

VI
Constant ratio
15-64/65 years
or older

E. Age group 65 or older (thousands)

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

12 634
13 444
15 266
16 247
16 575
17 468
18 762
20 721
22 233
22 027
21 323
20 794

12 634
13 403
15 176
16 108
16 380
17 190
18 354
20 133
21 405
20 849
19 692
18 689

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

15.5
16.4
18.5
19.8
20.3
21.6
23.4
26.1
28.5
28.8
28.5
28.4

15.5
16.6
19.0
20.6
21.4
23.0
25.3
28.6
31.6
32.2
31.9
31.8

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

13 264
12 751
11 675
10 868
10 496
10 534
10 704
10 675
10 403
10 079
9 858
9 803

13 264
12 468
11 123
10 091
9 485
9 294
9 248
9 009
8 533
8 015
7 611
7 379

12 634
13 427
15 247
16 250
16 612
17 536
18 854
20 858
22 467
22 378
21 793
21 428

12 634
13 435
15 295
16 326
16 709
17 702
19 144
21 351
23 205
23 337
22 968
22 861

12 634
13 403
15 176
16 108
16 380
17 383
19 010
21 534
23 604
23 613
23 146
23 250

12 634
13 656
16 111
17 687
18 499
20 144
22 732
27 125
32 411
36 805
40 914
45 178

15.5
16.4
18.4
19.6
20.0
20.8
21.9
23.6
24.9
25.1
24.9
24.8

15.5
16.6
19.0
20.6
21.4
21.7
21.2
20.8
20.6
20.6
20.3
20.5

15.5
15.5
15.4
15.5
15.5
15.5
15.3
15.1
15.0
14.9
15.0
15.1

13 264
12 700
11 907
11 307
11 067
11 611
12 543
13 531
14 063
13 823
13 447
13 398

13 264
12 468
11 123
10 091
9 485
10 726
13 623
17 478
20 085
19 437
18 348
17 264

13 264
14 315
17 265
18 635
18 862
21 072
25 244
32 683
41 210
47 007
51 065
54 694

F. Percentage in age group 65 or older

15.5
16.4
18.7
19.9
20.3
21.5
23.1
25.5
27.5
27.4
26.7
26.2
G. Age group 0-14 (thousands)
13 264
12 640
11 579
10 896
10 657
10 848
11 219
11 446
11 475
11 470
11 562
11 807

H. Potential support ratio in 2050, by age at entry into non-working-age population

Age
65
70
75
80

2.05
2.93
4.25
6.65

1.75
2.48
3.55
5.50

2.26
3.22
4.66
7.29

2.44
3.49
5.08
7.99

3.13
4.45
6.35
9.77

4.41
6.45
10.02
17.27

NOTE: The six scenarios can be described briefly as follows:

I Corresponds to the medium variant of the official United Nations population projections (World Population Prospects, 1998 Revision).
II This scenario amends the medium variant by assuming no migration after 1995.
III This scenario keeps the total population figure constant at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
IV This scenario keeps the number of persons aged 15-64 constant at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
V This scenario prevents the ratio of persons aged 15-64 to persons aged 65 and above from falling below 3.0.
VI This scenario keeps the ratio of persons aged 15-64 and above at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
This scenario is considered to be demographically unrealistic.

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

119