TABLE A.7.

JAPAN, 1998 REVISION

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision.

124

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

TABLE A.7 (continued)

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision.

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

125

TABLE A.8. JAPAN, REPLACEMENT MIGRATION SCENARIOS

JAPAN
Scenario
Period

I
Medium
variant

II
Medium
variant with
zero migration

III
Constant
total
population

IV
Constant
age group
15-64

V
Ratio 15-64/65+
not less than 3.0

VI
Constant ratio
15-64/65 years
or older

A. Average annual net migration (thousands)

1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
2045-2050

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Grand total 1995-2050

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
27
234
387
459
473
472
472
464
440

231
517
818
1 056
483
200
407
707
1 070
745
465

0
0
341
4 871
2 094
204
303
1 151
3 255
3 162
3 588

5 990
5 674
6 224
7 831
3 854
2 335
5 895
12 766
20 543
20 776
18 811

17 141

33 487

94 837

553 495

125 472
126 714
127 457
129 104
153 682
165 212
166 849
168 149
173 472
190 219
207 956
229 021

125 472
158 061
191 169
228 535
275 471
303 440
323 376
361 530
437 628
559 848
691 148
817 965

87 188
86 335
84 355
82 357
96 067
102 837
104 213
105 485
109 112
118 822
128 831
140 816

87 188
108 454
129 299
152 670
182 833
202 426
217 547
243 694
292 648
369 375
452 377
535 088

4.75
3.99
3.45
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00

4.77
4.77
4.77
4.77
4.77
4.77
4.77
4.77
4.77
4.77
4.77
4.77

B. Total population (thousands)

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

125 472
126 714
127 457
127 315
126 070
123 893
121 150
118 145
114 987
111 691
108 304
104 921

125 472
126 714
127 457
127 315
126 070
123 893
121 150
118 145
114 987
111 691
108 304
104 921

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

87 188
86 335
84 355
81 099
76 708
74 101
72 418
70 018
66 671
62 250
59 159
57 087

87 188
86 335
84 355
81 099
76 708
74 101
72 418
70 018
66 671
62 250
59 159
57 087

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

4.77
3.99
3.45
2.96
2.47
2.28
2.24
2.17
2.05
1.84
1.74
1.71

125 472
126 714
127 457
127 457
127 457
127 457
127 457
127 457
127 457
127 457
127 457
127 457

125 472
127 923
131 475
135 956
140 936
142 402
141 877
142 094
143 811
147 553
149 843
150 697

C. Age group 15-64 (thousands)

87 188
86 335
84 355
81 199
77 681
76 587
76 803
76 509
75 432
73 410
72 729
72 908

87 188
87 188
87 188
87 188
87 188
87 188
87 188
87 188
87 188
87 188
87 188
87 188

D. Potential support ratio 15-64/65 or older

126

4.77
3.99
3.45
2.96
2.47
2.28
2.24
2.17
2.05
1.84
1.74
1.71

4.77
3.99
3.45
2.96
2.50
2.35
2.35
2.34
2.27
2.11
2.06
2.07

4.77
4.03
3.54
3.14
2.75
2.61
2.59
2.57
2.49
2.33
2.23
2.19

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

TABLE A.8 (continued)

JAPAN
Scenario
Period

II

III

IV

Medium
variant

Medium variant with

zero migration

Constant total
population

Constant age
group 15-64

Ratio 15-64/65+
not less than 3.0

VI
Constant ratio
15-64/65 years
or older

E. Age group 65 or older (thousands)

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

18 264
21 614
24 479
27 389
31 029
32 491
32 383
32 239
32 534
33 809
33 966
33 323

18 264
21 614
24 479
27 389
31 029
32 491
32 383
32 239
32 534
33 809
33 966
33 323

18 264
21 614
24 479
27 394
31 080
32 634
32 660
32 686
33 194
34 751
35 311
35 253

18 264
21 657
24 634
27 751
31 699
33 443
33 624
33 920
34 959
37 405
39 013
39 890

18 264
21 614
24 479
27 452
32 022
34 279
34 738
35 162
36 371
39 607
42 944
46 939

18 264
22 719
27 086
31 982
38 300
42 405
45 572
51 050
61 305
77 378
94 765
112 092

F. Percentage in age group 65 or older

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

14.6
17.1
19.2
21.5
24.6
26.2
26.7
27.3
28.3
30.3
31.4
31.8

14.6
17.1
19.2
21.5
24.6
26.2
26.7
27.3
28.3
30.3
31.4
31.8

14.6
17.1
19.2
21.5
24.4
25.6
25.6
25.6
26.0
27.3
27.7
27.7

14.6
16.9
18.7
20.4
22.5
23.5
23.7
23.9
24.3
25.4
26.0
26.5

14.6
17.1
19.2
21.3
20.8
20.7
20.8
20.9
21.0
20.8
20.7
20.5

14.6
14.4
14.2
14.0
13.9
14.0
14.1
14.1
14.0
13.8
13.7
13.7

G. Age group 0-14 (thousands)

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

20 019
18 765
18 623
18 827
18 332
17 300
16 349
15 888
15 781
15 632
15 179
14 511

20 019
18 765
18 623
18 827
18 332
17 300
16 349
15 888
15 781
15 632
15 179
14 511

20 019
18 765
18 623
18 864
18 697
18 236
17 994
18 262
18 831
19 296
19 417
19 297

20 019
19 078
19 652
21 016
22 048
21 771
21 065
20 986
21 665
22 960
23 642
23 619

20 019
18 765
18 623
19 295
25 593
28 096
27 897
27 503
27 989
31 790
36 181
41 266

20 019
26 888
34 784
43 883
54 338
58 609
60 256
66 786
83 675
113 096
144 006
170 785

H. Potential support ratio in 2050, by age at entry into non-working-age population

Age
65
70
75
80

1.71
2.40
3.64
6.48

1.71
2.40
3.64
6.48

2.07
2.89
4.36
7.68

2.19
3.10
4.77
8.50

3.00
4.41
6.89
12.20

4.77
7.04
11.40
21.49

NOTE: The six scenarios can be described briefly as follows:

I Corresponds to the medium variant of the official United Nations population projections (World Population Prospects, 1998 Revision).
II This scenario amends the medium variant by assuming no migration after 1995.
III This scenario keeps the total population figure constant at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
IV This scenario keeps the number of persons aged 15-64 constant at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
V This scenario prevents the ratio of persons aged 15-64 to persons aged 65 and above from falling below 3.0.
VI This scenario keeps the ratio of persons aged 15-64 and above at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
This scenario is considered to be demographically unrealistic.

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

127