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THE NEXT CRISIS HAS BEGUN

The 2008 Set-Up

Gordon T Long
7/13/2016

JULY 2016 Edition


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THE NEXT CRISIS HAS BEGUN


The 2008 Set-Up
JULY MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY
EXECUTIVE BRIEF .................................................................................................................................. 3
MARKET MESSAGE ....................................................................................................................................................................... 3
I DEFINING CHARTS ..................................................................................................................................................................10
Defining Chart #3 - The Big M and Super Cycle b .................................................................................................................... 10
Boundary Conditions .......................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Channels & Regressions ................................................................................................................................................................... 13
II TARGETS .................................................................................................................................................................................21
III QUARTERLY SENTIMENT RISK AND FUNDAMENTALS ..................................................................................................25
NEW-SENTIMENT ............................................................................................................................................................................. 25
NEW-RISK ANALYSIS - Complacency .......................................................................................................................................... 32
NEW-VALUATION SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................................................... 33
IV STUDIES..................................................................................................................................................................................34
EARNINGS CONTINUING EARNINGS DETERIORATION ......................................................................................................34
NEW-STUDY: Q2 EARNINGS Settting Expectations .............................................................................................................34
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 34
NEW-BANKING & BONDS YIELDS ARE SUGGESTING SOMETHING IS BREWING .........................................................41
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 43
V - TRIGGER$ ZONES ...................................................................................................................................................................48
VI - DRIVER$ & BIA$ .....................................................................................................................................................................49

THE NEXT CRISIS HAS BEGUN THE 2008 SETUP ...................................................................................... 50


CASSANDRAS NOW MAINSTREAM George Soros Comes out of Retirement ................................................................50
CHINA Hard Landing Has Begun .........................................................................................................................................53
WHAT TO EXPECT What the Charts Tell Us ..........................................................................................................................54
WHERE ARE WE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CYCLE? ........................................................................................................57
OUR M TOP.................................................................................................................................................................................59

JULY 2016 Edition


Copyright 2016 GordonTLong.com

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general@GordonTLong.com

EXECUTIVE BRIEF
MARKET MESSAGE

FAILED ECONOMIC POLICY


It is clear to anyone who understands Monetary Policy that the current Keynesian approach of ZIRP/NIRP,
QE/QQE & LTRO/TLTRO is simply not working. We have global deflation pressures that cannot be overcome
by such policies. Policies that in fact are accelerating the deflationary pressures by creating oversupply due
to excessively cheapmoney and the malinvestments it allows.

Economic Growth has disconnected from the financial markets because the transmission mechanism is not
working and the incentives have shifted to Financial Engineering versus investment in productive assets.

JULY 2016 Edition


Copyright 2016 GordonTLong.com

Restricted
All Rights Reserved

general@GordonTLong.com